Nuggets Never Trail in Second Half, Beat Heat 108-95 to Take 3-1 Lead
Aaron Gordon scored a game-high--and playoff career-high--27 points to pace a balanced scoring attack as the Denver Nuggets defeated the Miami Heat 108-95 to take a 3-1 NBA Finals lead. Gordon shot 11-15 from the field, grabbed seven rebounds, and passed for six assists. The fourth overall selection in the 2014 NBA Draft has not just accepted a non-starring role--he is thriving as the third or fourth option who is capable of scoring 20 points or more in any given game. Gordon could be a 20-25 ppg scorer for a team that never wins anything of consequence, but he prefers being a contributor to a championship quality team instead of being a star for an irrelevant team; there are several high scoring NBA players who are sitting at home now who could learn from that example, assuming that they are more interested in winning an NBA title than in accumulating individual statistics and honors.
Nikola Jokic produced 23 points on 8-19 field goal shooting, a game-high 12 rebounds, four assists, three steals, and three blocked shots in what will undoubtedly be characterized as an "off" game or a "quiet" game, which is a tribute to the high standard of excellence that he has set for himself. Bruce Brown scored 21 points on 8-11 field goal shooting in 30 minutes off of the bench. Coach Michael Malone has shortened his bench, yet it seems that each game at least one bench player makes a major contribution. Jamal Murray had a masterful performance despite shooting just 5-17 from the field: he had a game-high 12 assists, and he did not commit a single turnover despite being trapped and blitzed throughout the game. Murray is the first player to have at least 10 assists in each of his first four NBA Finals games.
There may be some people who are surprised that the Nuggets won despite Jokic having "only" four assists, but the reality is that a team's success is rarely connected to an arbitrarily chosen statistic. The Nuggets' offense is remarkably consistent and efficient: they have scored between 104 and 109 points in each NBA Finals game, and they have shot between .494 and .520 from the field in each NBA Finals game--and those team numbers have not varied much even as Jokic's scoring output has ranged between 23 points and 41 points, with his assist totals ranging between four and 14.
The Nuggets won easily despite both Jokic and Murray shooting poorly because Jokic and Murray both had a significant positive impact in other ways; the Nuggets run smart, crisp offensive sets that take advantage of the extra defensive attention that Jokic and Murray draw, and that is why the Nuggets shot well overall despite both of their stars not shooting well. If you just look at boxscore statistics or even "advanced basketball statistics" then you will have trouble understanding and explaining what happened in this game--and you might even erroneously conclude that Gordon is the team's best player (or was the team's best player in game four). The Nuggets' offensive efficiency flows from Jokic and Murray; take them out, and everyone else would have to work much harder to score. Gordon may very well score even more points without Jokic and Murray, but his shooting percentage would be worse (he is a career .472 field goal shooter who has shot .500 or better in each of his seasons with the Nuggets). Murray's 5-17 field goal shooting is not equivalent to a James Harden "concert tour" because Murray took shots within the flow of the game and because Murray played in a way that enabled his teammates to be effective; in contrast, when Harden has a "concert tour" he is dribbling the air out of the ball while running an inefficient offense. It should also be noted that a "concert tour" field goal percentage is an aberration for Murray but a regular playoff occurrence for Harden.
Jimmy Butler had 25 points, seven rebounds, and seven assists in 45 minutes. It may not be fair to ask or expect him to do more, but it is evident that if he is not able to do more then this series will be over soon. Bam Adebayo added 20 points and 11 rebounds, but he shot 8-19 from the field and committed seven turnovers; he has had some excellent moments during this series and he is posting impressive scoring and rebounding numbers--but overall he is being devoured by Jokic's superior size, strength, and skill. Kyle Lowry had an excellent first half to help the Heat keep the score close, and then he went scoreless in 20 second half minutes, which is not surprising for a 37 year old point guard who is barely 6-0 tall; small, aging point guards are typically not leading the charge for championship teams, and it is too much to expect even a six-time All-Star/2019 NBA champion to do so. Lowry finished with 13 points and seven assists.
The Heat outrebounded the Nuggets 37-34 after being destroyed on the boards in game three, but that small advantage was wiped out by larger disadvantages in turnovers committed (15-8) and field goal percentage (.494 versus .449).
This game had a back and forth flow in the first half before the Nuggets took command in the second half. The Nuggets led 18-11 with 2:11 remaining in the first quarter, but the Heat ended the quarter on a 10-2 run, taking a 21-20 lead on a Butler three pointer just before time ran out in the first quarter. The Heat outrebounded the Nuggets 11-7 in the first quarter, and shot .500 from the field while holding the Nuggets to .316 field goal shooting. The momentum shifted shortly after Jokic turned his right ankle while stepping on Max Strus' foot. Jokic limped noticeably after that play, and he briefly went to the locker room to get his foot retaped after the first quarter.
Jokic returned to action at the 7:50 mark of the second quarter with the score tied 30-30. He hit a deep three pointer on the next possession, and the Nuggets never trailed the rest of the way. Gordon and Jokic led the Nuggets with 16 first half points each. Butler topped the Heat with 14 first half points on 6-9 field goal shooting, and he also had a team-high five first half assists. Lowry made a big impact in the first half with 13 points and four assists. The Heat attacked the paint much more aggressively than they did in game three, and they were rewarded with dunks, layups, and free throws. The Heat won the first half rebounding battle 18-16--but, despite the Heat playing about as well as they can play, the Nuggets enjoyed a 55-51 halftime lead.
Gordon made a nifty one handed bounce pass to Murray for a layup that put Denver up 65-55 at the 7:35 mark of the third quarter. Passing and unselfishness are contagious, and it is clear that the way that Jokic and Murray play has permeated this team. The Nuggets led 86-73 after three quarters, and they appeared to be poised to push that margin to 20 points--but the Heat kept battling, and then Jokic committed his fifth foul at the 9:24 mark of the fourth quarter. The Nuggets led 86-76 as Jokic went to the bench for the next 5:15, but while Jokic sat the Heat only shaved one point off of that margin; the Nuggets were up 96-87 when Jokic returned, and the Nuggets soon pushed that lead to 108-91 before coasting to victory. After the game, Coach Malone conceded that during the regular season the team's non-Jokic minutes often went "haywire," but he proudly noted that this has not been the case during the playoffs and it was not the case in this game.
The Heat are 2-6 since taking a 3-0 Eastern Conference Finals lead
versus the Boston Celtics, and--even though they will undoubtedly fight
hard until the end--they may have run out of gas after making an
improbable run from the Play-In Tournament to the NBA Finals. Meanwhile, the Nuggets look fresh and focused. Their team offense is excellent, and their team defense is better than advertised, and better than it has been in recent memory; the mental lapses and breakdowns that they suffered during game two appear to be an aberration because in the other three Finals games the Nuggets have held the Heat to less than 100 points.
Labels: Aaron Gordon, Bam Adebayo, Denver Nuggets, Jamal Murray, Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowry, Miami Heat, Nikola Jokic
posted by David Friedman @ 1:24 AM
Jokic Leads the Way as Nuggets Dominate Heat, Reclaim Homecourt Advantage
Nikola Jokic authored one of the most dominant all-around performances in NBA Finals history--32 points, 21 rebounds, and 10 assists--as the Denver Nuggets led for the entire second half en route to winning 109-94 to take a 2-1 series lead. Jokic posted the first 30-20-10 stat line in NBA Finals history. Wilt Chamberlain and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar are the only other players to post a 30-20-10 stat line in a playoff game, accomplishing the feat one time each. Jamal Murray had an outstanding game as well, scoring a game-high 34 points, grabbing 10 rebounds, and tying Jokic for game-high honors with 10 assists. Jokic and Murray became the first teammates in NBA history--including regular season, playoff, and Finals games--to each have a 30-10-10 stat line in the same game. Jokic played 44 minutes and Murray played 45 minutes; their ability to be highly productive and efficient with little rest distinguishes them from so many players who "load manage" their way through games and entire seasons. Christian Braun scored 15 points on 7-8 field goal shooting in 19 minutes off of the bench, and Aaron Gordon contributed 11 points, 10 rebounds, and five assists.
Anyone who stubbornly clings to the demonstrably false belief that "pace and space" and "range shooting" are the most important factors for building a championship team should note that in this game the Nuggets outscored the Heat 60-34 in the paint, outrebounded the Heat 58-33, and won by 15 points despite shooting just 5-18 (.278) from three point range. Jokic is a basketball artist with his footwork, fine-tuned passing, and shooting, but he is also physically overpowering--and he led the way as the Nuggets physically overpowered the Heat. Size matters in the NBA--a point that I have repeatedly made for the past two decades, and a point that continues to be true. In game two, the Nuggets missed many defensive assignments, and they did not fully exploit their size advantage, but in game three the Nuggets held the Heat to 34-92 field goal shooting (.370), including 11-35 (.314) from three point range.
Jimmy Butler led the Heat with 28 points on 11-24 field goal shooting. He had four assists and two rebounds. Butler played well, but he was the third best player on the court behind Jokic and Murray. Bam Adebayo had 22 points and a team-high 17 rebounds, but he shot just 7-21 from the field.
Jokic set a dominant tone early, scoring 10 points and grabbing seven rebounds in the first quarter. The score was tied 24-24 after the first 12 minutes, and the Nuggets only led 53-48 at halftime despite enjoying significant advantages in field goal percentage (.477 to .391) and rebounding (28-21). The Heat stayed close with nearly perfect ballhandling, committing just one first half turnover while the Nuggets had five first half turnovers (not a terrible number, but those extra possessions helped the Heat to stay within striking distance).
The Nuggets broke the game open in the third quarter as Jokic refuted the ridiculous notion that the Nuggets are not at their best when he is a prolific scorer. Jokic scored 12 points on 5-6 field goal shooting to help the Nuggets outscore the Heat 29-20, including 18-4 in the paint. The Nuggets outrebounded the Heat 17-3 as Jokic alone doubled the Heat's rebounding total; the Nuggets looked like the big brother dominating the little brother in a backyard game.
The Nuggets had some fourth quarter lapses, but the Heat never cut the margin to less than nine points.
After game two, many media members promoted the false narrative that the Nuggets lost because Jokic scored more than 40 points while "only" having four assists. The reality is that the Nuggets have a historically great offense that has been remarkably consistent and effective during the regular season, the playoffs, and the first three games of the NBA Finals: the Nuggets scored 104 points on .506 field goal shooting in their game one win, they scored 108 points on .520 field goal shooting in their game two loss, and they scored 109 points on .512 field goal shooting in their game three win. The difference between their two Finals wins and their one Finals loss is defense. The Nuggets held the Heat to 93 points on .406 field goal shooting in game one and they held the Heat to 94 points on .370 field goal shooting in game three, but the Heat got loose for 111 points on .487 field goal shooting in game two.
If the Nuggets' game two defensive rotations had been just a little sharper, they would enjoy a 3-0 lead now and would be poised to complete a sweep on Friday night. In game three, the Nuggets proved that their game two mistakes were correctable--but, as we will all see as this series progresses, the Heat cannot fix what went wrong for them in game three, because that would require their players to become taller and stronger. The Heat are a scrappy and smart team that may find a way to win game four, but it will be very difficult for them to win three of the next four games.
Many commentators declared that Miami had the advantage in this series after winning game two, but in my game two recap I predicted a double digit Denver win in game three: "Am I surprised that Miami won game two? No--I foreshadowed this possibility in my series preview when I wrote, 'The
Heat will fight until the end. They will win a couple games, possibly
including one in Denver.' I expect that Denver will win at least one of
the next two games in Miami before closing out the series in six games. I
would not be surprised if Denver won game three by at least 10 points,
nor would I be surprised if the series returns to Denver tied 2-2."
The reason that I give the Heat a puncher's chance to win game four is because there is a natural human tendency to have a bit of a letdown after retaking homecourt advantage with a dominant road win. The Heat will always play hard and smart regardless of how well they are shooting, so if the Nuggets relax a bit defensively then the Heat could win game four by a small margin--but if that happens then the Nuggets will win game five at home in commanding fashion, and close out the series in Miami in game six. If the Nuggets attack the paint on offense and play sound defense in game four then they will win to take a 3-1 lead before closing out the series in five games.
Labels: Bam Adebayo, Denver Nuggets, Jamal Murray, Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat, Nikola Jokic
posted by David Friedman @ 1:12 AM
Miami Dissects Denver's Defective Defense
The Miami Heat opened game two of the NBA Finals with a 10-2 run and withstood a furious Denver rally that put the Nuggets up 50-35 before outscoring Denver 36-25 in the fourth quarter to win 111-108 and tie the series at 1-1. Gabe Vincent scored a team-high 23 points on 8-12 field goal shooting, while Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo each added 21 points. Butler shot just 7-19 from the field, but he had a team-high nine assists plus four rebounds while also playing excellent defense versus Jamal Murray. Adebayo shot 8-14 from the field while contributing nine rebounds and four assists. Max Strus scored 14 points while making four three pointers after shooting 0-10 from the field in game one. Duncan Robinson scored all 10 of his points in the decisive fourth quarter.
Miami Coach Erik Spoelstra inserted Kevin Love in the starting lineup in place of Caleb Martin, who scored three points on 1-7 field goal shooting in game one. Love grabbed a team-high 10 rebounds and had a +18 plus/minus number in 22 minutes. Love not only contributed on the boards, but he enabled the Heat to favorably change their defensive matchups; he guarded Aaron Gordon--who feasted on smaller Heat defenders in the first quarter of game one--and this enabled Butler to check Murray. After starring in the Eastern Conference Finals, Martin still has not found his shooting stroke in the NBA Finals, scoring three points on 1-3 field goal shooting in game two; it will be interesting to see if Martin shoots better after the series shifts to Miami, and it will be interesting to see if Spoelstra makes additional rotation changes if Martin continues to struggle.
The Heat shot 17-35 (.486) from three point range after shooting 13-39 (.333) from beyond the arc in game one. The Nuggets survived giving up some open three point shots that the Heat missed in game one, but in game two the Nuggets' defense became worse and Miami punished most of Denver's lapses. The Nuggets conceded wide open three pointers to the Heat's best three point shooters, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope committed two fouls on three point shots en route to fouling out. The Nuggets' defense was awful in the first few minutes, improved a bit after that, and then collapsed in the fourth quarter when the Heat scored 36 points on 11-16 (.688) field goal shooting, including 5-9 (.556) from three point range.
The Nuggets shot 39-75 (.522) from the field, won the rebounding battle
38-31, and only committed two more turnovers than the Heat (13-11), but
their porous defense was too much to overcome. Nikola Jokic scored a game-high 41 points on 16-28 field goal shooting, and he snared a game-high 11 rebounds. Much will be made of the fact that he had four assists--less than half his average--and we will no doubt spend the next three days hearing that the Heat made a masterful "adjustment" by turning Jokic into a scorer instead of being a passer, but the reality is that the Nuggets lost this game because of defensive breakdowns. Coach Michael Malone mentioned this during his timeouts and during his postgame press conference, when he called his team's defensive performance "disappointing" and "perplexing." Anyone who watched the game with understanding could see that the Nuggets lacked game plan discipline, as displayed by poor (or non-existent) closesouts to open shooters, switches that left shooters open, senseless fouls, and poor defensive positioning that conceded easy straight line drives to the hoop.
In game two, the Nuggets scored more points than they did in game one while also shooting better from the field, the three point line, and the free throw line than they did in game one; there is not a logical, plausible argument that the Heat won game two because they "adjusted" their defense to make Jokic into a scorer and thus negatively impacted Denver's overall offensive efficiency: such an assertion is typical of the false narratives promoted by media members who do not understand how to analyze basketball. Nuggets not named Jokic shot .489 from the field in game two after shooting .478 from the field in game one. Common sense suggests that when a team's best scorer attempts a lot of shots and shoots a good percentage that will increase his team's offensive efficiency, and that is what happened in game two.
Jamal Murray scored 18 points on 7-15 field goal shooting while dishing for a game-high 10 assists. Aaron Gordon (12 points) and Bruce Brown (11 points) also scored in double figures. Ideally, Michael Porter Jr. would score more than five points on 2-8 field goal shooting, but overall the Nuggets' offense did enough to win the game, which is why Denver led 83-75 heading into the fourth quarter. Denver's fourth quarter offense (25 points on 9-16 field goal shooting) was solid, but--as noted above--Miami's fourth quarter offense was off of the charts.
Despite their awful defense, the Nuggets had possession of the ball trailing by three points with 11.4 seconds remaining. The trailing team should do everything possible to extend the game, so it would have been logical to call a timeout, advance the ball, and run a quick-hitting play. Ideally the play would result in a three point shot, but a two pointer in three seconds or less would have been acceptable, because the Nuggets could have fouled and then had another possession down by one, two, or three points (depending on how many free throws the Heat made after Denver fouled). An out of bounds play involving screens to free two three point shooters while also sending a backdoor cutter to the hoop would have forced the Heat to both defend the paint and also contest a possible three point shot attempt. Even if the Nuggets could not get an open three point shot out of the timeout, in a best case alternative scenario the Nuggets would score a backdoor layup, foul a poor free throw shooter who missed both free throws, call their last timeout, and then win the game with a two pointer. Instead, the Nuggets pushed the ball up the court, and time expired as Murray attempted a fadeaway three pointer contested by Butler; as ESPN's Tim Legler noted, if the Nuggets had run a set play out of a timeout they could have dictated matchups and switches instead of having Butler checking Murray, which Legler correctly deemed the least desirable matchup from Denver's perspective. It is surprising that none of the commentators--including Legler and Jeff Van Gundy, two of the best in the business--noted that Denver's late game strategy not only resulted in a bad matchup but also drained the clock instead of extending the game, which should always be the goal of the trailing team. Malone predictably said that the Nuggets got a good look--but that is not the point: in that situation it is important to get the best possible look AND preserve enough time to extend the game even if you miss. Letting the outcome of any game--let alone an NBA Finals game--be determined by a last second heave after you obtained possession with 11 seconds left is not the highest percentage option available. Running out the clock only makes sense if the score is tied, because then you want to have the last possession of the fourth quarter to either win or go to overtime.
The game was not decided in the last 11 seconds, though. The game was decided by Denver's poor defense, culminating in the fourth quarter meltdown. NBA playoff series are not determined by so-called "adjustments" such as "letting" the opposing team's best player score 41 points, nor are they determined by so-called momentum swings--as Danny Ainge once sagely noted, this is not the Tour de France, so the team that lost the previous game does not start out trailing in the next game. NBA playoff series are determined by the optimal exploitation of matchup advantages, and in this series the two most significant advantages favor the Nuggets: the Nuggets have the best player (Jokic), and the Nuggets have more size. Those advantages will wear down the Heat over the course of the series. Size matters in the NBA and that has not changed and will not change, no matter how often people rave about the value of shooting and "pace and space." Spoelstra knows this, which is why he put Love in the starting lineup so that his team would be bigger at the start of the game; the Heat lost game one in the early moments when the Nuggets built a big lead, and--despite the inevitable vicissitudes of a 48 minute game--the Heat won game two in the early moments when they built a big lead by establishing a physical tone that they maintained throughout the game.
Am I surprised that Miami won game two? No--I foreshadowed this possibility in my series preview when I wrote, "The
Heat will fight until the end. They will win a couple games, possibly
including one in Denver." I expect that Denver will win at least one of
the next two games in Miami before closing out the series in six games. I
would not be surprised if Denver won game three by at least 10 points,
nor would I be surprised if the series returns to Denver tied 2-2.
Labels: Bam Adebayo, Denver Nuggets, Gabe Vincent, Jamal Murray, Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat, Nikola Jokic
posted by David Friedman @ 2:36 AM
