Why Have the Suns and Warriors Prospered While the Lakers Struggled?
The reigning Western Conference champion Phoenix Suns and the three-time NBA champion (2015, 2017-18) Golden State Warriors are tied for the NBA's best record (30-19), while the L.A. Lakers are seventh in the Western Conference (21-20). I picked the Lakers to be the Western Conference's best team, and I placed both Phoenix and Golden State in the West's top four (along with the Utah Jazz, who are currently third in the West). Why are the Suns and Warriors performing so much better than the Lakers as the season reaches its midpoint?
If you focus on mainstream media narratives--something that I would encourage you not to do for any subject, not just pro basketball--then you may believe that the Suns are successful because Chris Paul is the "point god," the Warriors are successful because they shoot a lot of three pointers, and the Lakers are struggling to stay above .500 because Russell Westbrook turns over the ball too frequently.
It is true that the Suns rank fourth in assists, and that Paul leads the NBA with 10.0 apg. However, the Suns also rank third in defensive field goal percentage, fifth in points allowed, eighth in rebounding, and sixth in steals.
It is true that the Warriors are a proficient and efficient three point shooting team, ranking fourth in three pointers made and eighth in three point field goal percentage. However, the Warriors also rank first in defensive field goal percentage, first in points allowed, fifth in rebounding, second in steals, and 10th in blocked shots.
The foundation for the success of both the Suns and the Warriors is based on defense and rebounding--the same factors that have been the foundation for championship success throughout NBA history. Why does the media focus so much on three point shooting and so little on defense and rebounding? One reason is that media members have become captivated by "advanced basketball statistics," and some media members have even obtained front office jobs in the NBA based on touting such numbers. One of the big narratives for "stat gurus" is the importance of three point shooting, so media members focus on three point shooting to the exclusion of almost any other aspect of basketball. Another reason is that defense and rebounding are much harder to understand and quantify than three point shooting; far too many media members are unwilling and/or incapable of understanding defense and rebounding, let along explaining defense and rebounding to the general public.
What about the Lakers? It is true that the Lakers rank 26th
in turnovers this season, which obviously is not good--but they ranked
28th last year without Westbrook, and they ranked 22nd in 2020 when they
won the "bubble" title. Westbrook's turnovers this year are in line with his career averages
per minute and per game. The narrative that he is just throwing the ball
all over the place is not supported by facts. He has always averaged
around 4 turnovers per game.
Here is an interesting list; see if you can guess what this list describes:
1) LeBron James
2) Karl Malone
3) Moses Malone
4) John Stockton
5) Russell Westbrook
6) Kobe Bryant
7) Jason Kidd
8) Julius Erving
9) Artis Gilmore
10) Isiah Thomas
Would
you agree that those are 10 great players? Would you agree that, other
than Karl Malone, Moses Malone, and Artis Gilmore, those are elite
playmakers? If you are not sure about that statement, note that other
than the Malones and Gilmore each was the primary playmaker for his team
at some point during his career.
That list is the 10 players in ABA/NBA history who have committed the most career regular season turnovers.
Do turnovers matter? Of course.
Do
live ball careless turnovers that result in fast breaks for the
opposing team matter? Of course--those are the worst turnovers.
Do
team turnovers matter more than individual turnovers? Yes. If one
player is handling the ball most of the time and "absorbing" turnovers
per game but he is also running the offense well and the team turnovers
are not high than that player's individual turnovers do not matter as
much as the team's overall turnover numbers.
As demonstrated above, the addition of Westbrook has not made the Lakers a much more turnover prone team.
I have previously demonstrated that rebounds are not fungible,
and that after Westbrook leaves a team his new team's rebounding tends
to improve while his previous team's rebounding tends to decline. The
Lakers are 12th in
rebounding after ranking 16th last season. The Wizards, Westbrook's
previous team, are 19th in rebounding this season after ranking 8th last
season. Therefore, Westbook has had a demonstrable impact on team
rebounding
in favor of his new team and not in favor of his old team, which is
consistent with what we have seen with Westbrook throughout his career.
The Lakers rank 26th in points allowed, and they rank 13th in defensive field goal percentage. Offense is not their problem: they are sixth in scoring and sixth in field goal percentage; forget all the memes you see of Westbrook turning the ball over, because the reality is that the Lakers are running a productive and efficient offense with Westbrook as the primary playmaker (8.2 apg, sixth in the league).
The Lakers' problem is defense; last season, the Lakers ranked second in points allowed and eighth in defensive field goal percentage. When the Lakers won the 2020 "bubble" championship, they ranked fourth in points allowed and eighth in defensive field goal percentage. The biggest reason for the Lakers' defensive decline from 2020 to now is Anthony Davis, who has spent much of the post-championship period being injured and/or disinterested. Commentators who posture and try to sound smart by blaming the Lakers' defensive woes on Westbrook's off ball defense do not know what they are talking about; whether or not Westbrook gambles for steals more often than he should is not nearly as big of an issue as Davis' unavailability, and his unwillingness to protect the paint when he is available. This is not just measured by blocked shots; if you watch the games and if you watch Davis then you know that he is not the defensive force that he was during the Lakers' championship run.
It is also worth noting that the Lakers have used 21 different starting lineups this season, and no lineup has been used more than five times; they have used 11 different starting lineups one time each.
In contrast, consider the stability enjoyed by the Suns and the Warriors. The Suns have used just six different starting lineups; their main starting lineup has appeared in 20 games, posting a 15-5 record (and their second most frequently used starting lineup has gone 6-0, with JaVale McGee at center instead of Deandre Ayton, and the other four players remaining the same). The Warriors have used just 11 different starting lineups; their main starting lineup has appeared in 27 games, posting a 22-5 record.
Continuity and health are critically important to sustained success in the NBA. That has always been true, and those factors are even more relevant with the additional variable of COVID-19, with its accompanying health and safety protocols forcing many players to miss games. Lack of continuity and lack of health have more of an impact on defense than on offense; if you throw five players together, they may be able to quickly figure out how to score at a decent rate, particularly if one or two of those players can create his own shot--but five players thrown together are not going to be able to quickly figure out how to be connected defensively.
The Suns and the Warriors sit atop the league mainly because of how well they defend and rebound.
The "Westbrook is a turnover machine" narrative is a distraction/deflection from the Lakers' real problems, namely (1) injuries, (2) Davis' toxic combination of often being hurt and rarely playing hard since the Lakers' won the "bubble" title, and (3) lack of consistently productive depth (which is at least in part connected to the injuries, which inevitably result in lower caliber players receiving more minutes).
Still not convinced? What if I told you that there are only four NBA players who currently rank in the top 30 in scoring, rebounding, and assists? Could you name those four players? Reigning MVP Nikola Jokic is one obvious choice, and reigning Finals MVP/two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo should also be obvious. You may be surprised that James Harden is on the list this season; Harden is shooting poorly, has given up on playing defense, and is turning the ball over slightly more than Westbrook, but he is racking up rebounds and assists while still scoring over 20 ppg.
The fourth player, as you may have guessed, is Westbrook. Three of those players are locks to make the All-Star team, while Westbrook will likely receive zero consideration. Last season, Westbrook averaged a triple double while leading the league in assists (11.5 apg), ranking sixth in rebounding (11.5 rpg), and ranking 24th in scoring (22.2 ppg). He led the Wizards to the playoffs, but he did not make the All-NBA Team or even the All-Star team.
Meanwhile, Stephen Curry--who is posting the second worst shooting percentages of his career from both the field (.422) and from three point range (.387)--is touted as an MVP candidate while being the face of a Golden State team that is winning mainly because of great defense and rebounding (and Curry is not leading the charge in either of those categories).
As is often the case, the media-driven anti-Westbrook narrative--like many media-driven narratives--has little tangible connection to reality.
Labels: Anthony Davis, Chris Paul, Golden State Warriors, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Phoenix Suns, Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry
posted by David Friedman @ 5:04 PM
