20 Second Timeout

Celtics Prove to be Road Warriors, Rally from 15 Point Deficit to Beat Golden State

Stephen Curry had his way early, but he and his teammates disappeared late as the Boston Celtics outscored the Golden State Warriors 40-16 in the fourth quarter to win game one of the NBA Finals, 120-108. The Celtics tied the NBA Finals record for point differential in a quarter. Al Horford led the Celtics with 26 points on 9-12 field goal shooting, including 6-8 from three point range, and he had 11 fourth quarter points on 4-4 field goal shooting. Jaylen Brown added 24 points on 10-23 field goal shooting, and he initiated the Celtics' fourth quarter rally, finishing with 10 fourth quarter points on 4-6 field goal shooting. Derrick White provided a major lift off of the bench with 21 points on 6-11 field goal shooting. Marcus Smart played a very efficient game (18 points on 7-11 field goal shooting, five rebounds, four assists, no turnovers in 30 minutes). Jayson Tatum struggled with his shot (12 points on 3-17 field goal shooting) but he had a game-high 13 assists, repeatedly finding open teammates when the Warriors trapped him.

The NBA is often a first quarter league, but this series may be a fourth quarter series as the Celtics use their size and physicality to wear down the Warriors. Curry scored 21 points on 7-9 field goal shooting in the first quarter, but the Warriors only led 32-28 after the first 12 minutes. Curry scored 13 points on 5-16 field goal shooting the rest of the way, and he was invisible in the fourth quarter (four points on 2-6 field goal shooting) as his Warriors lost home court advantage. Curry's game-high 34 points on 12-25 field goal shooting may look impressive, but he was not the best player on the court when it mattered most, and we have seen this movie many times before with Curry. For example, in the 2021 Play-In Tournament, Curry had a big game versus the L.A. Lakers but he faded down the stretch, and I wrote the following:

Remember all of the foolish talk a couple years ago about how much better Golden State's offense supposedly was with Kevin Durant out of the lineup? Do you think that Durant would have gotten off a shot in the final minute of this game? We already know the answer, because we have seen Durant dribble the ball up the court in the NBA Finals, and hit a pressure shot over James en route to outplaying James, winning a championship, and earning the Finals MVP. 

Curry is a great player. He had a game-high 37 points on 12-23 field goal shooting--but a great 6-3 player will never be more valuable than a great player who is taller, bigger, and stronger. It is baffling that anyone would think that Curry, as great as he is, is a more valuable basketball player than Nikola Jokic or Giannis Antetokounmpo this season, or that in previous seasons Curry was more valuable than players like LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, and Kevin Durant when those players were healthy enough to play most of the regular season games.

Curry is a great player, and he put up great numbers in game one, but he can't carry a team to a title against a physical, tough defensive team. It also must be noted that Boston's first quarter defense against him was uncharacteristically horrific, as the Celtics repeatedly conceded wide open three pointers to Curry; once the Celtics stopped blowing defensive assignments and started using their size against Curry, he had no answer. I would not be surprised if this 34 point game ends up being his top scoring performance in the 2022 NBA Finals; at the very least, if he scores 34 points again he will not do it by launching wide open shots.

Even with Curry scoring 34 points, the Celtics held the Warriors below 110 points, and that 105-110 point range is the target that I predicted Boston can achieve defensively. Andrew Wiggins had a solid game (20 points on 8-15 field goal shooting), but Klay Thompson (15 points on 6-14 field goal shooting) and Jordan Poole (nine points on 2-7 field goal shooting) were non-factors. The Celtics are more than happy to give up open shots to Draymond Green (four points on 2-12 field goal shooting) and Otto Porter Jr., who scored 12 points on 4-5 field goal shooting but also had a -18 plus/minus number. Green and Porter are open by design; Curry was open in the first quarter by accident.

This was a game of runs, including 33-16 for Golden State in the third quarter to build an 87-72 lead, but the defining run was 40-13 for Boston in the fourth quarter before Golden State hit a meaningless three pointer. The Celtics made 10 straight field goals during their big run.

After the game, Green noted that Horford, Smart, and White shot 15-23 from three point range. He acknowledged that they are good shooters, but then he shrugged as if to say, "That won't happen again." Green may be right, but we can also be confident that Tatum will not shoot this poorly again the rest of the series, and we can be confident that if the Warriors close out on the three point shooters then they will get murdered in the paint; many of Boston's three point shots came after the Celtics attacked the paint, collapsed the defense, and then passed to open shooters. The Celtics can get into the paint almost at will versus the Warriors, and that is unlikely to change. If the Warriors hug the three point shooters too closely, then they will be giving up a parade of dunks and layups.

The Warriors' post-game narrative was that they outplayed the Celtics for three quarters but then just lost the fourth quarter. The reality is that the Warriors had a couple hot streaks in the first and third quarters, but they trailed 56-54 at halftime, and they were not able to put pressure on the Celtics. Tatum passed the ball well, but he was pressing every time he shot, and after he settles down he will be a major matchup problem. In other words, the things that the Celtics did well are more likely sustainable than the things that the Warriors did well.

After the game, it was fascinating watching and listening to the "experts" express puzzlement about this outcome; they have overrated Curry and the Warriors to such an extent that they are not able to objectively analyze the matchups. The series is not over after one game, but this one game is not surprising to anyone who has watched these teams play and understands how they match up.

Labels: Al Horford, Boston Celtics, Derrick White, Golden State Warriors, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Stephen Curry

posted by David Friedman @ 12:54 AM

2 comments

Boston Versus Golden State Preview

NBA Finals

Boston (51-31) vs. Golden State (53-29) 

Season series: Tied, 1-1

Golden State can win if…the "Splash Brothers" trio--Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Jordan Poole--not only maintain their long distance sharpshooting but they continue to attack closeouts with aggressive drives to the hoop. The Warriors also must move actively off of the ball, and they must defend Boston's big wings Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown without committing so much help defense that the paint becomes open for drives, post ups and offensive rebounds.

Curry is leading Golden State in 2022 playoff scoring (25.9 ppg) and playoff assists (6.2 apg). His shooting splits (.449/.380/.822) are below his career norms across the board, but not by much (other than free throw shooting). Curry averaged 23.8 ppg, 7.4 apg, and 6.8 apg with shooting splits of .444/.439/.840 in the Warriors' Western Conference Finals win against the Dallas Mavericks en route to receiving the inaugural Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP.

Thompson's 2022 playoff averages (19.8 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 2.4 apg, shooting splits of .457/.399/.800) almost mirror his career playoff averages of 19.3 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 2.2 apg with shooting splits of .444/.412/.838. The eye test says that he is not quite at the level he reached before suffering devastating knee and Achilles injuries, but the numbers say that he is still a very effective player. To the extent that he has lost a step, this is more evident on defense, which is why Andrew Wiggins now draws the toughest defensive assignment on the wings.

During the 2022 playoffs, Poole has been the most efficient of Golden State's three main sharpshooters, with shooting splits of .531/.393/.917. He is averaging 18.4 ppg and 4.5 apg.

In 2022, Andrew Wiggins made the All-Star team for the first time in his career. He is averaging 15.8 ppg in the playoffs, but his primary value (at least in the postseason) has been on defense.

Draymond Green is the quintessential example of a player who is very important for a good team but would be much less important for a weak team. As Charles Barkley jokingly notes, Green is averaging a "triple single" (8.7 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 6.3 apg) in the 2022 playoffs. The valuable things that Green does best are not easily measured: setting screens, making good reads (assist only partially track this), orchestrating the defense, guarding the opposing team's best big man, and being a willing and skilled help defender. If he did all of those things for a bad team, that team would still lose, but when he does all of those things for a stacked team that stacked team becomes very dangerous.

Kevon Looney's playoff numbers are not sensational (6.1 ppg, 7.7 rpg), but he is the only player in the Warriors' rotation who is big for his position. Size bothers the Warriors, but they get by with Looney taking care of one big man and Green's active defense filling in the gaps while Wiggins and Thompson do most of the perimeter work.

Boston will win because…size bothers the Warriors, and the Celtics have effective size at each position: big men Al Horford and Robert Williams will punish the Warriors in the paint, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are big wing players, and Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart plays bigger than his height/weight might suggest. 

The Celtics have been a legit contender for several years--reaching the Eastern Conference Finals in 2017, 2018, and 2020--but because they had not reached the NBA Finals since 2010 they have flown under the radar to some extent. After their slow start this season, they were not only under the radar but they were sinking beneath the sonar as well. 

Tatum is averaging 27.0 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 5.9 apg, and 1.2 spg with shooting splits of .446/.375/.833 in 18 playoff games. He won the inaugural Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP after averaging 25.0 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 5.6 apg, and 1.1 spg with shooting splits of .462./.353/.860 in a seven game series win versus the number one seeded Miami Heat. 

Brown averaged 24.1 ppg and 7.1 rpg versus the Heat, and during the playoffs overall he is averaging 22.9 ppg and 6.8 rpg. He is not as spectacular as Tatum, but he is perhaps the more consistent player.

Horford led the Celtics in rebounding versus the Heat (10.0 rpg), and he just missed averaging a double double during that series, scoring 9.8 ppg. He is averaging 11.9 ppg and a team-high 9.6 rpg during the playoffs.

Smart struggled with his shot versus the Heat (.360 FG%), but he contributed 16.6 ppg, 6.2 rpg, and a team-high 6.2 apg. Overall, his playoff averages are 15.5 ppg, 4.5 rpg, and a team-high 6.2 apg. Smart can defend point guards, shooting guards, and small forwards.

The Boston Celtics started slowly this season, but reemerged as an elite team after becoming the league's best defensive team while also playing more unselfishly on offense, as Tatum and Brown worked better together while Smart assumed increased playmaking duties.

Other things to consider: Media members have their narratives ready: the Golden State Warriors are a great dynasty, Stephen Curry is a top 10 all-time player, and Kevin Durant was not the best player on the Warriors' back to back 2017-18 championship teams. 

The Warriors have reached the NBA Finals six times in the past eight seasons, which by historical standards is unquestionably a dynasty: only Bill Russell's Boston Celtics, the Jerry West-Elgin Baylor L.A. Lakers, the Magic Johnson-Kareem Abdul-Jabbar L.A. Lakers, and the Michael Jordan-Scottie Pippen Chicago Bulls made it to the NBA Finals at least six times in an eight year span. It should be emphasized that Russell's Celtics are in a category by themselves, winning 11 titles in 13 seasons. One difference between the Warriors and most of those other dynasties is that the other dynasties had the same top two players throughout their runs, with the exception of the West-Baylor Lakers adding Wilt Chamberlain after already losing five times in the NBA Finals. The Warriors won one title with Curry and Thompson leading the way, then they won two titles with Durant as clearly the best player, and now they have reached the NBA Finals for the first time since Durant departed.

Four Warriors are averaging double figures in scoring in the playoffs, but that number increased to six versus Dallas in the Western Conference Finals as Green and Looney joined Curry, Thompson, Poole, and Wiggins. The Warriors have a tremendous ensemble cast, superior to other teams that won the NBA Finals with ensemble casts (most notably Seattle in 1979 and Detroit in 2004). Curry is better than Dennis Johnson and Chauncey Billups (the Finals MVPs in 1979 and 2004 respectively), but he is not at the same level as Russell, West, Baylor, Johnson, Abdul-Jabbar, Jordan, Pippen, or Durant. Curry is the best player on a team that relies on strength in numbers, and on a very underrated defense that is--to put it mildly--not built around Curry.

However, I would be surprised if six Warriors averaged double figures against Boston's defense. The Celtics are not going to shut down the Warriors, but they are going to hold the Warriors to somewhere between 105-110 ppg instead of the 114.5 ppg that the Warriors have averaged so far in the 2022 playoffs.

Nothing that happens in the 2022 Finals changes or invalidates what Durant accomplished in the 2017 and 2018 NBA Finals. If Curry has an epic performance in the 2022 NBA Finals--30-plus ppg with efficient shooting numbers--that adds to his already impressive resume but it does not retroactively make him the Warriors' best player in 2017 and 2018, nor does it make him a better player than Durant.

The reality is that Curry's previous track record and Boston's current defense make it very unlikely that Curry will average 30 ppg in the Finals, let alone post efficient shooting numbers. If the Warriors win, they will win because their collective firepower overwhelms Boston's collective firepower.

The Warriors, by virtue of being completely healthy, are the best team that the Celtics have faced in the 2022 playoffs, but the Celtics are also by far the best team that the Warriors have faced in the 2022 playoffs. In their first three playoff series, the Warriors have yet to battle a team that can not only match up with them on the perimeter, but can also attack them in the paint.

I predict that the Celtics will win in six games.

Labels: Al Horford, Andrew Wiggins, Boston Celtics, Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Jordan Poole, Klay Thompson, Marcus Smart, Stephen Curry

posted by David Friedman @ 10:41 AM

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Celtics Lead Wire to Wire, Beat Heat in Game Seven to Advance to the NBA Finals

The 2022 Eastern Conference Finals featured high peaks and low valleys for both the Boston Celtics and the Miami Heat, culminating in a game seven 100-96 win for the Celtics, who never trailed. This playoff series was as competitive and hard fought as it was unpredictable from game to game--and even quarter to quarter. The Celtics rode a 24-2 second half run to a road win in game five, but then Jimmy Butler scored 47 points in Miami's game six win on the road. 

In game seven, Jayson Tatum led the Celtics with 26 points on 9-21 field goal shooting. He also had 10 rebounds, six assists, and just two turnovers while playing nearly 46 minutes. Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart each added 24 points. Brown shot 8-15 from the field and had six rebounds and six assists. Smart shot 8-22 from the field with nine rebounds and five assists. Al Horford scored five points on 2-9 field goal shooting, but he snatched a game-high 14 rebounds, and he led the Celtics with a +10 plus/minus number. Tatum received the first annual Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP. During the game, Tatum wore a purple and gold armband to honor Kobe Bryant, his favorite player, and Tatum mentioned Bryant upon accepting the MVP trophy. 

Jimmy Butler scored a game-high 35 points on 13-24 field goal shooting. He had nine rebounds, one assist, and one turnover while playing all 48 minutes. Whether or not you are a Heat fan, you have to respect Butler's effort level, his unselfish leadership, and his no excuse mentality. There are many players who have won regular season MVPs whose playoff resumes pale in comparison to Butler's. Bam Adebayo contributed 25 points on 12-21 field goal shooting plus a team-high 11 rebounds. Kyle Lowry was Miami's only other double figure scorer (15 points, 4-12 field goal shooting). Victor Oladipo, who provided a spark at various points throughout this series, had nine points on 4-12 field goal shooting, but he also posted a game-best +16 plus/minus number in 33 minutes.

The NBA is often a first quarter league, and that proved to be the case in game seven. The Celtics jumped out to leads of 6-0, 9-1, 12-3, and 20-7 in the opening stanza. They were up 32-17 after the first 12 minutes. The Celtics forced six turnovers and shot 12-24 (.500) from the field while holding the Heat to 7-20 (.350) field goal shooting. Tatum topped the Celtics in points (eight), rebounds (six), and assists (three) even though he shot just 3-9 from the field. Butler and Adebayo led the Heat with six first quarter points apiece.

Butler erupted for 18 second quarter points on 5-5 field goal shooting as the Heat trimmed the margin to 55-49 by halftime. The teams played to a virtual standstill in the third quarter, so the Celtics led 82-75 with 12 minutes left in regulation. Both teams struggled to make shots in the fourth quarter, as the Celtics managed just 18 points on 5-16 (.312) field goal shooting while the Heat had 21 points on 10-27 (.370) field goal shooting. The Celtics inched their lead to 98-85 after Smart converted a pair of free throws with 3:35 remaining, but the Heat are a never say die team, and they reeled off nine straight points to claw to within 98-96 with just under 51 seconds left. Smart missed a layup with 22 seconds remaining, Butler grabbed the rebound, burst downcourt, and fired up a three pointer with 16.6 seconds left. ESPN's Jeff Van Gundy questioned Butler's shot selection--arguing that Butler should have driven to the hoop in transition versus Horford--but Butler is a big shot maker even though he is not a great three point shooter. As Van Gundy also said, you have to live with that kind of shot from your best player, provided that you are willing to die with that kind of shot.

After the game, Butler said, "My thought process was go for the win, which I did. Missed a shot. But I'm taking that shot. My teammates liked the shot that I took. So I'm living with it." 

Van Gundy and Butler are both right: analytically, Butler's three point shot may not have been the highest percentage play, but in the real world you ride or die with the rhythm shots that your best player takes. The Heat would not have been in position to win this series without Butler, and he had earned the right to go for the win. 

Smart closed out the scoring by making two free throws.

The Heat battled through injuries to post the best record in the Eastern Conference this season, and they had a shot to win game seven at home to advance to the NBA Finals for the second time in three seasons. If they are reasonably healthy next season then they will remain a top contender.

Redemption could be the theme for the Celtics' 2022 playoff run so far, as they have eliminated the teams that eliminated them in the last three postseasons: Milwaukee Bucks (2019), Miami Heat (2020), and Brooklyn Nets (2021). The Celtics won the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2010, after losing one round short of the NBA Finals in 2012, 2017, 2018, and 2020. The 2012 Celtics featured the last hurrah of the Kevin Garnett-Paul Pierce-Ray Allen trio, but Brown and Smart were on the 2017, 2018, and 2020 squads, while Tatum was a member of the 2018 and 2020 teams.

Labels: Bam Adebayo, Boston Celtics, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Jimmy Butler, Marcus Smart, Miami Heat

posted by David Friedman @ 4:07 AM

3 comments