2022-2023 Western Conference Preview
The Golden State Warriors surprised many people--including, if they are honest, themselves--by winning the 2022 NBA championship. Before the 2021-22 season, there were justifiable questions about the team's health, size, and ability to advance very far in the playoffs sans Kevin Durant; after Durant's departure for Brooklyn in 2019, the Warriors had not won a single playoff game. However, Klay Thompson returned to action as a valuable contributor, Andrew Wiggins emerged as a first-time All-Star, Stephen Curry overcame a midseason slump to have perhaps his best playoff run ever, and the Warriors benefited from implosions and/or injuries suffered by several of their most dangerous rivals.
On paper, the Western Conference is very deep, but after the way that the Warriors played during the 2022 playoffs it is difficult to not choose them as the favorites. As the old saying goes, to be the champ you have to beat the champ--and if a team other than the Warriors wins the West in 2023 then that team will most likely have to beat the Warriors.
The Memphis Grizzlies have a dynamic offense (115.6 ppg, second in the league) and a solid defense (.455 defensive field goal percentage, 10th in the league). They are led by explosive point guard Ja Morant, who is surrounded by a strong supporting cast--and all of the team's key players are younger than 30, so there is room for growth and development for a squad that had the league's second best record (56-26) last season.
Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are healthy, which means that the L.A.
Clippers should be championship contenders--and which also means that
several of the teams that finished ahead of them in the standings last
season will be moving down at least one notch.
The Dallas Mavericks suffered an important loss when free agent guard Jalen Brunson signed with the New York Knicks, but the continued MVP-level excellence of Luka Doncic plus the additions of Christian Wood and JaVale McGee should keep Dallas in the top four in the Western Conference.
The Phoenix Suns finished with the NBA's best regular season record in 2021-22, and they still have a talented team that should be effective at both ends of the court, but there is something amiss internally in addition to the Robert Sarver scandal--we saw it during the game seven meltdown versus the Dallas Mavericks, and we saw it during the offseason when the Suns dared Deandre Ayton to find a team willing to offer him a max contract; the Suns had to scramble after Ayton signed just such a deal with the Indiana Pacers. Although the Suns matched the Pacers' offer sheet and kept Ayton, it is obvious that he and at least one other team place a higher value on his services than the Suns do. When the Suns signed Chris Paul in 2020 they knew that they had a short window as a contender with him running the team, and that window most likely slammed shut last season.
Denver's Nikola Jokic is seeking to win his third straight regular season MVP, a feat previously accomplished by only Bill Russell (1961-63, NBA), Wilt Chamberlain (1966-68, NBA), Julius Erving (1974-76, ABA), and Larry Bird (1984-86, NBA). Jokic has led the Nuggets to the playoffs for four straight years, and they reached the Western Conference Finals in 2020. Injuries have held the team back for the past couple years, but the team is starting the season healthy and with high expectations. If the Nuggets stay healthy then they could be a force, but injury-prone teams often stay injury-prone, and the Nuggets also have some work to do defensively.
The Minnesota Timberwolves made the playoffs for just the second time since 2004, and they significantly upgraded their defense by acquiring three-time Defensive Player of the Year and 2022 rebounding leader Rudy Gobert from the Utah Jazz. The Timberwolves led the league in scoring (115.9 ppg) but ranked 24th in points allowed, so even a slight improvement defensively could potentially add up to several more wins.
Meanwhile, the Jazz--who made the playoffs for the sixth straight season--appear to be yet another team that has succumbed to the tanking plague, trading Gobert and then trading three-time All-Star Donovan Mitchell for a sack of beans, a stack of draft picks, and hopes/dreams that some day those draft picks will amount to something more than two three-time All-Stars. Good luck with that, Jazz fans, but don't hold your breath, because three-time All-Stars are harder to find than "stat
gurus" seem to think.
Local and national media members covering the L.A. Lakers have vilified and scapegoated Russell Westbrook without merit or mercy. The extent of the vitriol is breathtaking, but the notion that Westbrook would be unfairly criticized does not surprise me; in fact, I predicted it eight years ago when I declared that Westbrook was poised to inherit Kobe Bryant's dual role as "best guard in the NBA and vastly underrated superstar." Not long after I made that prediction, Westbrook set triple double records that may never be broken and then he won a much-deserved regular season MVP. The Lakers have an uphill battle to make the playoffs this season, and Westbrook will no doubt once again bear the brunt of the criticism for others' shortcomings.
This preview has the same format as my Eastern Conference Preview; the following eight teams are ranked based on
their likelihood of making it to the NBA Finals:
1) Golden State Warriors: I underestimated the Warriors last season, and perhaps I am overestimating them this season, but unless Curry suddenly gets old and/or this team is hit by a slew of injuries their offensive firepower combined with their underrated defense will make them very difficult to beat.
I did not think that the 6-3 Curry could lead the Warriors to a title versus teams featuring more physically imposing superstars who have an impact at both ends of the court, but the way things played out Curry did not have to outduel 2021 Finals MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo, 2020 Finals MVP LeBron James, or 2019 Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard. That statement of fact is not meant to take anything away from what Curry and the Warriors accomplished: they beat the teams in front of them, and they earned their championship rings.
The core players are back, and the players who the Warriors lost to free agency--including Gary Payton II, Otto Porter Jr., and Juan Toscano-Anderson--are valuable but hardly irreplaceable. Thompson figures to be more consistent offensively and more impactful defensively in his first full season back after suffering two serious injuries, and new additions Donte DiVincenzo and JaMychal Green should fit in seamlessly.
Casual fans can rave about "small ball" and three point shooting while debating how highly Curry should be ranked on the all-time greatest players list, but it should be noted that last season the Warriors ranked second in defensive field goal percentage, third in points allowed, fourth in rebounding differential, and seventh in rebounding. The Warriors won the championship by doing the dirty work in the trenches, and that reality is not altered by the distorted way that many media members describe what happened.
2) Memphis Grizzlies: Ja Morant earned his first All-Star selection and emerged as an MVP candidate last season, averaging career-highs in scoring (27.4 ppg), field goal percentage (.493), rebounding (5.7 rpg), and steals (1.2 spg). He missed 25 games due to injury and is slightly built at just 6-3, so his size and durability are question marks, but his talent is undeniable.
The interesting thing is that the Grizzlies did just fine--even better, statistically--during the games that Morant did not play. That does not mean that they are better off without him, but it does mean that this team is deep and well-coached.
Some teams rise up for one fluky season only to fall back into the pack--Portland, Atlanta, and New York are three recent examples of this--but the Grizzlies look like a team built for sustained high level success.
3) L.A. Clippers: This will be Kawhi Leonard's fourth season with the Clippers, and he has yet to lead the team to the NBA Finals after winning championships (and Finals MVPs) with San Antonio in 2014 and with Toronto in 2019. Leonard missed all of last season due to an ACL injury, and because of a combination of injuries and "load management" he has not played more than 60 games in a season since 2016-17. The most games he has played in a season is 74, and in an 11 season career he has played more than 70 games only twice. Therefore, it will be surprising if he plays more than 70 games this season--but if he plays in 60-65 regular season games and is healthy for the entire postseason then this team could be very dangerous. When healthy, Leonard may be the best all-around player in the NBA other than Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Leonard's running mate Paul George is a bit miscast as a number one option, but he fits in well as a second option. Ty Lue has already won a championship as a coach, and the supporting cast is solid--and could be excellent if newly acquired John Wall has anything left in the tank. Until I see Leonard make it all the way to June in one piece again, I cannot pick the Clippers to win the championship, but this is a dangerous team that clearly has championship potential.
4)
Dallas Mavericks: Losing Jalen Brunson hurts Dallas, but let's not pretend that he is an irreplaceable superstar. Luka Doncic is a perennial All-NBA First Team selection and MVP candidate, and he has proven to be an elite playoff performer as well. He led the NBA in playoff scoring average in 2021 (35.7 ppg) and 2022 (31.7 ppg), becoming just the fourth player since 2000 to lead the league in postseason scoring in consecutive seasons, a list that includes Tracy McGrady (2001-02), Kobe Bryant (2007-08), and Kevin Durant (2013-14). Under the tutelage of Coach Jason Kidd, Doncic has improved defensively. I rank the Mavericks fourth because they have not closed the gap on the Warriors, and because at full strength the Grizzlies and Clippers are better, deeper teams.
5) Phoenix Suns: The Suns rode the momentum of a good closing run in the 2020 "bubble" all the way to the 2021 NBA Finals, and then they posted the NBA's best regular season record in 2022, but the playoff collapse versus Dallas followed by a tumultuous offseason during which the Suns did not strengthen their roster leaves this team poised to drop significantly in the standings. Even if the Suns finish higher than fifth in the regular season, I would not trust them in the playoffs, especially considering Chris Paul's track record of wearing down and presiding over multiple team collapses with multiple franchises.
6) Denver Nuggets: The Nuggets play at an elite level when reigning two-time regular season MVP Nikola Jokic is on the court, but they are not very good when Jokic is off of the court. Jamal Murray is expected to make a fully healthy return this season after rehabbing his torn ACL. The health of Murray and Michael Porter Jr. are critical for this team, but there are also legitimate questions about depth and team defense. The ceiling for this team if everything goes well is to return to the Western Conference Finals for the first time since 2020, but I expect the Nuggets to struggle to stay in the top four and avoid a first round playoff exit.
7) Minnesota Timberwolves: The Timberwolves were one of the most surprising teams of 2022, reaching the playoffs on the strength of the league's highest scoring offense (115.9 ppg) and pushing the favored Memphis Grizzlies to six games in the first round. They did not stand pat in the offseason, instead going all-in by trading five players and five draft picks to the Utah Jazz for 2022 rebounding leader and three-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert. The Timberwolves ranked 16th in rebounding, 16th in defensive field goal percentage, and 24th in points allowed. Gobert should help the team improve in all three categories.
Karl Anthony-Towns has MVP-level talent, but he has made the All-Star team just three times in seven seasons and he has yet to be selected to the All-NBA First Team or the All-NBA Second Team. Anthony Edwards averaged 21.3 ppg in his second season, and he looks like a player who can become a perennial All-Star.
The Timberwolves have a lot of individual talent, but TNT's Charles Barkley bluntly said that they are "dumb as rocks" because of the way that they repeatedly waste possessions and squander leads. This team has to mature a lot in order to be a legit contender, but talent alone will carry them to the playoffs and make them a tough out.
8) New Orleans Pelicans: I don't fully trust the Pelicans, but I trust the teams listed below even less. The midseason addition of CJ McCollum turned things around and enabled the Pelicans to sneak into the playoffs after starting the season 4-16. The return of Zion Williamson no doubt excites the team's fans but can he stay healthy? Also, will he use his athleticism to do anything other than score? He has a lot of room for growth as a rebounder and as a defensive player. Brandon Ingram is a dynamic scorer and playmaker.
Herbert Jones, Larry Nance Jr., and Jose Alvarado have bought into Coach Willie Green's emphasis on defense, but the Pelicans are not going to advance very far in the playoffs until the team's best offensive players also commit to playing defense consistently.
The remaining Western Conference teams are deeply flawed and/or fully committed to tanking.
The Sacramento Kings should improve under new Coach Mike Brown, who will no doubt implement a game plan to bolster the team's defense, which ranked 29th in points allowed. If Brown can lift that ranking to top 20 status, the Kings could sneak into the Play-In Tournament. Brown is the Kings' 12th coach since their last playoff appearance in 2006. None of the previous 11 coaches lasted more than three seasons or won more than 39 games in a season. If the Kings give Brown a fair shake, he can reverse those trends.
The L.A. Lakers receive much more coverage than a mediocre team should, and many of the assertions made about this team and its players are so absurd that I am compelled to devote more coverage to a mediocre team than any mediocre team should receive.
The narratives swirling around the Lakers' acquisition of Patrick Beverley are bizarre. People act like Russell Westbrook has some kind of petty beef with
Beverley, but the reality is indisputable and is public knowledge: in
game two of the first round of the 2013 playoff series between the
Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets, Beverley plowed into
Westbrook as Westbrook called a timeout. Former NBA player and current
NBA commentator Tim Legler recently called it one the dirtiest plays he
has ever seen. How would you feel about a person who does a reckless and
dirty act that threatens your health and your livelihood?
Not only that, but Westbrook's Thunder were the defending Western
Conference champions who had posted the best record in the West. They
went 2-0 in the playoffs before Beverley ended Westbrook's season, and
then they struggled to beat Houston 4-2 before getting waxed 4-1 by
Memphis. Westbrook has every right to be furious at Beverley, and it
says a lot about Westbrook's character that he has warmly welcomed
Beverley as a teammate.
Westbrook became the scapegoat for the Lakers' disappointing 2021-22 season, but all of the propaganda directed against Westbroook does not change the reality that the Lakers' biggest
problem--literally and figuratively--is that Anthony Davis (whose
penchant for missing games led Charles Barkley to aptly dub him "street
clothes") is satisfied with his career: he won a championship ring
alongside his childhood hero LeBron James, he has made the All-Star team
eight times, and he even fooled the voters into selecting him to the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team,
which means that his status as a legend of the game is secure. Some
players--Bill Russell, Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, and Kobe Bryant
immediately come to mind--spent their careers obsessed with winning as
many championships as possible. That, to put it mildly, is not how Davis
thinks or--more importantly--how he acts.
Although Davis' style
of play is different than Pau Gasol's, their mindsets are very similar:
Gasol was a bit more motivated and focused than Davis (and Gasol had the
benefit of Bryant pushing him every step of the way), but--after winning
two championships and reaching three straight NBA Finals--Gasol was
satisfied, as Kevin Ding brilliantly and repeatedly noted. While other media members constructed ludicrous narratives about Kobe Bryant's shot selection and the supposedly optimal number of shots for Bryant to attempt,
Ding was one of the few writers who kept the focus--and the
blame--where it belonged: Pau Gasol was content with winning two rings,
and when the team's second best player is not going to push himself
there is only so much that the best player can do to overcome this.
Jeanie Buss told the truth in a recent interview when she called
Westbrook the team's most consistent player, but it is doubtful that
Davis will get the message that he was brought to the Lakers to
eventually become the number one option and not just to ride James'
coattails until James retires.
On any given night, James can still be the best player on the court, but he cannot sustain that over 82 games without either going into "chill mode," getting injured, or both. We know how much (and how little) to expect from Davis. The Lakers do not have the right personnel or mindset to maximize Westbrook's ability to grab a defensive rebound, push the ball up the court, and wreak havoc. The Lakers have name brand talent, but the product on the floor will likely not be good enough to make the playoffs.
The Portland Trail Blazers do not have enough size, enough talent, or the right defensive mindset to make the playoffs, let alone contend for a championship.
The Houston Rockets had the worst record in the NBA last season, and they only figure to have a better record than the tanking teams this season--and not by much. It is not clear if the Rockets are tanking or just not very good.
The three remaining Western Conference teams appear to be tanking: Oklahoma City, San Antonio, and Utah.
"Stat gurus" sagely declare that a three point shot is worth more than a two point shot, and that tanking is an analytically correct strategy for a team that cannot contend for a championship as currently constructed. I am waiting for some genius to combine these two brilliant insights and figure out that an optimal strategy for a team that cannot contend for a championship is to shoot three point shots at their own basket. After that happens, it will be fascinating to watch teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs set up their defenses to prevent the opposing team from making three pointers at their own basket. Perhaps we will even see the creation of a new statistic called "true winning percentage." Since "stat gurus" see no value in coaching other than a coach's willingness to blindly follow the whims of the "stat gurus" in the front office, this new statistic will be a metric applied to general managers: any general manager of a team below .500 will receive bonus "true winning percentage" points for each loss that places his team further below .500, with the idea that any sensible GM of a losing team is trying to lose every game.
What "stat gurus" and the media members who slavishly adore them fail to grasp is that teams losing on purpose are not only ripping off home fans who are buying tickets to watch a substandard product, but they are also striking a
blow at the integrity of the sport overall—and one is right to wonder just how far some teams will be willing to go. If it is analytically correct to lose on
purpose, why shouldn't a team shoot at the wrong basket at the end of a close game? Or, if that is too brazen, why shouldn't a team just let the other team
score? What if two tanking teams square off in a late season game? Will both teams shoot at the wrong basket while being "analytically correct"? Such hypothetical questions may sound farcical or outlandish, but they are the natural outgrowth of the distorted thinking that now holds sway in the NBA.
Even if tanking were a good strategy—and objective evidence demonstrates that no team has ever tanked its way to a title—any true basketball fan is disgusted by the nonsense that masquerades as a forward-thinking strategy.
**********
Note:
I correctly picked five of the eight 2022 Western Conference playoff teams. Here are my statistics for previous seasons:
2021: 6/8
2020: 6/8
2019: 7/8
2018: 6/8
2017: 7/8
2016: 6/8
2015: 7/8
2014: 6/8
2013: 6/8
2012: 7/8
2011: 5/8
2010: 7/8
2009: 7/8
2008: 7/8
2007: 6/8
2006: 6/8
2006-2022 Total: 107/136 (.787)
Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Golden State Warriors, L.A. Clippers, Memphis Grizzlies, Minnesota Timberwolves, New Orleans Pelicans, Phoenix Suns
posted by David Friedman @ 9:52 PM
2022-23 Eastern Conference Preview
Midway through the 2021-22 season, many "experts" questioned if Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown could play together effectively, but the Boston Celtics ignored the noise and advanced to the NBA Finals before losing to the Golden State Warriors. The Celtics have reached the Eastern Conference Finals four times in the past six seasons, and they are poised to advance at least that far again in 2022-23, even with Coach Ime Udoka being suspended by the team for at least one full season.
However, the 2021 NBA champion Milwaukee Bucks should be considered the preseason favorites to win the Eastern Conference. Khris Middleton is healthy, and the Bucks added depth by acquiring Joe Ingles, who will miss the start of the season as he recovers from an ACL injury suffered in February 2022 when he played for the Utah Jazz. A playoff rematch of Boston versus Milwaukee would be a great series.
In the latest edition of "As the Brooklyn Nets Turn," Kevin Durant rescinded his request that the Nets either trade him or fire General Manager Sean Marks and Coach Steve Nash. If "I flexed and nobody budged" were a person, his name would be Kevin Durant; the Nets shrugged at Durant's ultimatum, dangled him in the trade market at a price that no one would likely pay for a 33 year old player who has already had a serious injury, and then waited for Durant to come to his senses: the Nets could be confident that Durant was not going to hold out, and they have all the leverage because he is under contract for a multi-year deal.
Still, even with Durant back in the fold the Nets have more questions than an attorney conducting a cross-examination of a lying witness: How many games will Kyrie Irving play? How many games will Ben Simmons play? Is Durant really content to be in Brooklyn, or is he just patiently plotting his next attempt to flee for what he hopes/perceives to be greener pastures? If the Nets were collectively focused on winning a title, they would be a reasonable choice as the favorites in the East, if not the entire league; if the Nets implode, they might struggle to make the playoffs. Right now, I see them as the East's third best team, and a tough out for Boston in the second round.
With the addition of Donovan Mitchell, the Cleveland Cavaliers have enough offensive talent combined with their defensive mindset to beat any team in a seven game series, but it remains to be seen if the Cavaliers can stay healthy, and if they can consistently play at a high level under playoff pressure.
Yes, I am aware that the Miami Heat had the best record in the East last season, and that they pushed Boston to seven games in the Eastern Conference Finals. I am also aware that the Heat only finished two games ahead of Boston, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia. Boston improved more in the offseason than Miami did. When healthy, Milwaukee has a better team than Miami. I am not sure that Philadelphia will be better than Miami but it will probably be close, and I definitely think that Donovan Mitchell plus improved health will be worth nine games in the standings for Cleveland.
The Philadelphia 76ers have a decent amount of talent, but they have James Harden in a major role, and no team is going to win a title with James Harden in a major role--I've been saying it for a decade, I've been right, and I will keep saying it. Also, Joel Embiid has yet to prove that he can stay healthy enough to lead the 76ers past the second round.
The Toronto Raptors are very well-coached and they have some good young players, so they can be a spoiler if things break right for them and/or wrong for someone else, but it is difficult to picture a scenario in which they win the East or even reach the Eastern Conference Finals.
Listed below are the eight teams that I expect to qualify for the Eastern
Conference playoffs, ranked based on their likelihood of advancing to the NBA
Finals:
1) Milwaukee Bucks: Khris Middleton's knee injury derailed Milwuakee's bid to repeat as NBA champions. The Bucks pushed the Celtics to seven games in the second round even without Middleton and--while taking nothing away from the Celtics--it is reasonable to say that a healthy Middleton would have been worth one more Milwaukee win in that series.
Giannis Antetokounmpo won the regular season MVP in 2019 and 2020 before capturing the 2021 Finals MVP. Regardless of who wins those individual trophies in a given season, Antetokounmpo has established himself as the league's best player: he is an elite scorer, rebounder, passer, and defender, he does not take nights off, and there is zero drama surrounding him. No other player who is mentioned in the best player conversation checks off every one of those boxes.
It is fascinating that the Clown (also known as Gilbert Arenas) and the Flailing Flopper (also known as James Harden) have both publicly mocked Antetokounmpo for supposedly lacking all-around basketball skills and work ethic. Arenas and Harden have combined to produce 24 seasons without a championship--and if Harden had not ridden the coattails of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook to the 2012 NBA Finals then Arenas and Harden would also have combined for nearly a quarter century of not reaching the NBA Finals without buying a ticket. The concept of staying quiet and letting people just assume that you are a fool as opposed to opening your mouth and removing any doubt sailed over the heads of Arenas and Harden just like their errant shots sailed past the basket during their playoff appearances.
Last season, Antetokounmpo averaged a career-high 29.9 ppg (second in the NBA), 11.6 rpg (sixth), and 5.8 apg while shooting .553 from the field. He led the NBA in playoff scoring (31.7 ppg) while averaging 14.2 rpg and 6.8 apg. He is just 27 years old, so he may not have even reached his peak yet!
If Antetokounmpo stays healthy and has even just a decent supporting cast around him, he will win multiple championships and he will establish himself as the best player of the 2020s.
2) Boston Celtics: The popular notion that the Celtics could not win a title with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown as their two best players makes no sense. Tatum and Brown are both versatile two-way players who have superior size, skills, and athleticism. If Tatum is not already an MVP-level player then he is not far behind, and Brown is not far behind him. I did not foresee the Celtics as a championship contender last season not because of their star duo but rather because I was skeptical about the team's supporting cast--but Marcus Smart, Al Horford, Robert Williams, and Grant Williams played very well.
The addition of Malcolm Brogdon bolsters an already deep team, but the season-ending injury suffered by new acquisition Danilo Gallinari is unfortunate.
The Celtics are good enough to return to the NBA Finals, but if the Bucks are healthy then I expect the Bucks to prevail in what should be an electrifying Eastern Conference Finals.
It is too soon to say how the Celtics will be impacted by the elevation of assistant coach Joe Mazzulla to head coach while Ime Udoka serves a suspension of at least one season for violating multiple team rules, but I believe that because Mazzulla was promoted from within the team the transition will be smoother than some "experts" seem to expect; he is familiar with the players, and the players are familiar with him.
3) Brooklyn Nets: It is often difficult to understand what Kevin Durant is thinking or why seems to be perpetually dissatisfied or why he says some of the things he says--but when he steps on the court he is all business and he remains one of the best players in the league. The first round sweep at the hands of a superior Boston team was not one of the highlights of Durant's career, but that was also not a surprising end to a disjointed season during which Durant's co-stars abandoned him for a variety of reasons/excuses.
The Nets went 36-19 during the regular season when Durant played, and he averaged 29.9 ppg, 7.4 rpg, and 6.4 apg with shooting splits of .518/.383/.910. Durant will be 34 when the season begins and he has already recovered from one serious injury, but there is no reason to think that he does not have at least one more MVP-level season left.
Kyrie Irving was brilliant when he played (27.4 ppg, 5.8 apg) but he only played in 29 games. It is not clear if being a great basketball player is the most important thing to him, and there is a decent amount of evidence suggesting that basketball is not his top priority.
Ben Simmons did not play in a single game for the Nets after they acquired him in a trade for overrated malcontent James Harden. Simmons can guard any position, and he is a superior playmaker and rebounder. His limitations as a shooter are well-documented, but if he averages 16-8-8 then he will have more than done his part to put the Nets in position to contend. There are questions about his mental health and about his balky back, but in the context of this preview the hope and assumption is that he will be healthy and productive.
When the Nets are healthy and whole they can be a dynamic offensive team. Their weaknesses are size, defense, and rebounding. Simmons checks off all three of those important boxes. From a talent standpoint, this team at full strength could beat any team in the league in a seven game series--but the intangibles (including coaching, chemistry, mindset) suggest that the Nets will not have quite enough to beat the Bucks or Celtics in a seven game series.
4) Cleveland Cavaliers: Despite numerous injuries, the Cavaliers finished as an elite defensive team (fifth in points allowed, eighth in defensive field goal percentage). They are a pesky, scrappy, and well-coached team. The missing links were health and offensive efficiency. The addition of Donovan Mitchell will boost Cleveland's offense, because Mitchell can create offense for himself and for others. If the Cavaliers are reasonably healthy then they will be very dangerous. The only thing that they lack (other than playoff experience together as a group) is a legit superstar/MVP caliber player. Milwaukee has Antetokounmpo, Boston has Tatum, and Brooklyn has Durant. Star power matters, so it will take a lot for Cleveland to not just knock off one of the top three teams but to beat two of them in a seven game series, which is what it may take to reach the NBA Finals.
5) Miami Heat: The Heat had a remarkable regular season. Each of their top four players in minutes per game (Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro, and Bam Adebayo) missed at least 16 games, but the Heat battled their way to the East's best record. They are not a big team nor do they rebound very well, but they ranked fourth in points allowed and fourth in defensive field goal percentage. They do not attempt a large number of three pointers (ranking 14th in that category), but they led the league in three point field goal percentage (.379)--and they led the league in three point field percentage defense. They are disciplined, they are well-conditioned, and they don't beat themselves.
In short, Erik Spoelstra is a great coach, and Pat Riley is a great organizational leader; Riley is the only executive who did not roll over for LeBron James, and it is not a coincidence that James won more titles (two) in Miami than he has anywhere else despite his Miami stint being shorter than his tenure with Cleveland or L.A.
So why am I listing Miami as the fifth best team in the East? Boston was better last season, and improved more in the offseason. Healthy Milwaukee is better than Miami, as is healthy Brooklyn. I may be reaching a bit with Cleveland, and I would not be shocked if Miami finishes fourth and Cleveland finishes fifth. The point is that Milwaukee, Boston, and Brooklyn are a cut above teams 4-6.
6) Philadelphia 76ers: Somebody already made money with an absurdly titled book about how the 76ers were built--the 76ers most assuredly have not "tanked to the top"-- and in 10 years or less somebody will make money writing about how the Daryl Morey/Joel Embiid/James Harden 76ers "could've/should've" won an NBA title. Maybe Morey will even write the preface to that book and assert that if you look at the "advanced basketball statistics" then not only is Harden a better scorer than Michael Jordan but the 76ers actually had the best team even though they did not win a championship.
Embiid is an MVP-caliber player. Harden is an All-Star caliber player. Tyrese Maxey is developing into a very good player, and Tobias Harris is an underrated player who does not seek the limelight. Doc Rivers is a championship coach.
The parts may seem to be there for a championship run, but the whole is much less than the sum of the parts. Embiid is never in top physical condition, and he lacks something as a leader. Harden is the most overrated player of the past 10 years, and one of the most overrated players in NBA history--yes, when you are an All-Star level player but somehow have a trophy case containing an MVP and a 75th Anniversary Team jacket then you are both good and vastly overrated. Maxey and Harris are good, but the other contenders have third and fourth options who are just as good, if not better.
It is interesting that Morey is filling out the roster by making Philadelphia into Houston East; nothing against P.J. Tucker and Danuel House Jr., but considering Houston's playoff flameouts during the Morey/Harden era I am not sure that bringing that band back together is the way to go. The 76ers need young, energetic two-way players who can step up when Embiid is fatigued/injured and when Harden disappears. Tucker and House Jr. are solid supporting players, but when Embiid and/or Harden inevitably fade they will not be able to make enough of a difference. Brooklyn-Philadelphia could be an interesting first round series in terms of the Harden/Simmons subplots, but if Brooklyn is whole the games themselves will be less competitive than some may expect.
7) Toronto Raptors: If Cleveland-Miami-Philadelphia represent the second tier in the East, then Toronto stands atop the third tier. The Raptors do not have a superstar, but they have several very good two-way players who are interchangeable in terms of size and skill set, plus a pair of small bulldog guards (Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr.) who give no quarter. It will be interesting to see what the ceiling is for Scottie Barnes. If he can develop into an MVP level player then the Raptors could be a contender, but even if that happens it is not likely to happen this season.
The coaching of Nick Nurse is a major advantage for the Raptors. There are few, if any, games in which the Raptors will be outprepared or outschemed.
This is a team that could put a scare into one of the top teams in the first round before losing in six or seven games.
8) Atlanta Hawks: Before last season, I expressed skepticism that the Hawks are really an elite team even though they reached the 2021 Eastern Conference Finals. Sure enough, the Hawks plummeted back to Earth last season. The addition of Dejounte Murray improves Atlanta's size, talent, and versatility, but has anyone noticed that despite all of his efforts he could not even lift San Antonio to the playoffs for the past three seasons? Yes, the Hawks are better, but so are several other teams in the East. The Hawks were first round fodder in 2022, and they figure to be first round fodder in 2023. They score a lot, but they do not rebound or defend well. This is basically Portland East, with Trae Young playing the role of Damian Lillard. Lillard has reached the Western Conference Finals once in a 10 year career, and Young is on the same trajectory unless/until the Hawks add size, talent, and a defensive mentality.
The
apparent permanent implementation of the Play-In Tournament means that
the teams that finish the regular season in the top eight may not
necessarily qualify for the playoffs. The teams ranked seventh through
10th will participate in the Play-In Tournament. The above eight teams are the teams that I predict will qualify for the
playoffs, regardless of what the final regular season standings are.
The Chicago Bulls earned the sixth seed last season before losing 4-1 to Milwaukee in the first round. The Bulls ranked third in field goal percentage but just 13th in scoring, 16th in points allowed, 26th in defensive field goal percentage, and 28th in rebounding. Offseason additions Goran Dragic and Andre Drummond do not figure to move the needle significantly, and the improvement of several teams will result in Chicago dropping out of the top eight. Bulls' fans might argue that a rash of injuries held the team back, and that good health will lift the Bulls higher in the standings; we shall see if the Bulls can stay healthy, and if that happens then we will see how good this team really is. The recent report that Lonzo Ball will be out indefinitely after knee surgery is bad news for the Bulls.
The New York Knicks took a step backward in the 2022 season after reaching the first round of the 2021 playoffs. The addition of Jalen Brunson should help, but there are good reasons to question if Julius Randle can be the best player on a team that makes much noise in the playoffs. The Bulls and Knicks will likely finish in the top 10 before getting eliminated in the Play-In Tournament.
The Charlotte Hornets went 43-39 with a good offense (fourth in scoring, 11th in field goal percentage) and below average defense (20th in defensive field goal percentage, 25th in points allowed). They did not upgrade their roster in the offseason, and thus they figure to slide down in the standings.
The Detroit Pistons are a young team that does not defend well. That is not a recipe for success.
In my 2021-22 Eastern Conference Preview, I declared, "The 'stat gurus' and the numerous media members who consistently belittle and berate Russell Westbrook may have playoff expectations for the Washington Wizards, but history and logic indicate that teams that lose an MVP-caliber player tend to regress, usually significantly. The Washington Wizards fought their way into the Play-In Tournament last
season largely because of Westbrook's MVP caliber play down the
stretch. Without Westbrook, this team is headed to the Draft Lottery."
Sure enough, after getting rid of Westbrook--the media's favorite scapegoat--the Wizards dropped from being a playoff team in 2021 to having the 12th best record in the 15 team Eastern Conference in 2022. They did not add enough talent in the offseason to move up in the standings.
In the first season of Rick Carlisle's second stint as coach of the Indiana Pacers, the Pacers went 25-57, their worst winning percentage (.305) since 1984-85 (22-60, .268). The Pacers traded away Malcolm Brogdon, and they lost T.J. Warren to free agency. Carlisle is the team's fourth coach in the past seven years, and it is fair to say that the Pacers are in full rebuild mode, which hopefully will not devolve into unadulterated tanking.
The Orlando Magic are tanking. I wonder when the tanking teams will take their "advanced basketball statistics" to the natural conclusion, and start shooting at the wrong basket? After all, if losing as many games as possible to get high draft picks is supposedly a brilliant strategy then wouldn't it make sense to score points for the other team to ensure a loss?
**********
Note:
I correctly picked six of the eight 2022 Eastern Conference playoff teams. Here are
my statistics for previous seasons:
2021: 6/8
2020: 7/8
2019: 6/8
2018: 6/8
2017: 5/8
2016: 5/8
2015: 5/8
2014: 6/8
2013: 7/8
2012: 8/8
2011: 5/8
2010: 6/8
2009: 6/8
2008: 5/8
2007: 7/8
2006: 6/8
2006-2022 Total: 102/136 (.750)
Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics, Brooklyn Nets, Cleveland Cavaliers, Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks, Philadelphia 76ers, Toronto Raptors
posted by David Friedman @ 9:40 PM
