Bucks on the Brink of Elimination
The fourth seed Miami Heat lead the number one seed Milwaukee Bucks 3-0, which is a stunning development considering that there have been no injuries or suspensions to tilt the balance so decisively in favor of the underdog. The Heat won the season series 2-1, and I expected this series to be competitive, but no one could have predicted that the Heat would be on the verge of sweeping a Milwaukee team that was on a 70 win pace for most of the season.
Milwaukee has been the top seed in the Eastern Conference each of the
past two seasons. Last year, the Bucks took a 2-0 lead in the Eastern
Conference Finals versus the eventual NBA champion Toronto Raptors but
then Toronto won the next four games. Giannis Antetokounmpo averaged
22.7 ppg, 13.5 rpg, and 5.5 apg in that series, but he shot just .448
from the field and was outplayed in key moments by Kawhi Leonard (29.8
ppg, 9.5 rpg, 4.3 apg, .442 FG%).
Antetokounmpo is averaging 27.6 ppg, 15.0 rpg, and 6.4 apg through the
first eight playoff games in 2020. He shot .543 from the field in those games.
Those numbers are very similar to his 2019-20 regular season numbers
(29.5 ppg, 13.6 rpg, 5.6 apg, .556 FG%), though it is true that through
the first three games of the Miami series Antetokounmpo's scoring and
field goal percentage numbers are down (22.7 ppg, .455 FG%). That is a
small sample size from which to draw broad conclusions, and
Antetokounmpo's other numbers are excellent (13.3 rpg, 7.0 apg).
Antetokounmpo needs to improve his midrange shot and his free throw
shooting. At this stage, he is similar to a young LeBron James in terms
of athleticism and ability to score in the paint; the differences are
that Antetokounmpo is a better rebounder/defender but worse
shooter/passer than young James was.
It must be noted that Jimmy Butler has been the best player in this playoff series, and neither he nor his teammates have been shy about pointing that out. Butler's career is a great story. He has worked his way up from obscurity to All-Star status to elite level. Anyone in Minnesota or Philadelphia who did not want to play with him or who did not think that he could be the best player on a championship contender was a loser and/or not very good at player evaluation. Butler is similar to Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant from a personality standpoint: Butler is primarily focused on winning, he has a fanatical work ethic, and he does not care who he offends or disturbs (on his team or the opposing team) on the way to victory. Of course, Butler is a level below Jordan and Bryant in terms of skill set, but Butler is a two way player and he is a clutch performer. There is so much focus on what this series may mean for Milwaukee and Antetokounmpo that it is easy to ignore what this series means for Butler and Miami. Butler deserves full credit for how well he is playing, regardless of whether this becomes a sweep or not, and regardless of whether or not this scrappy Heat team wins the 2020 championship.
All of that being said, there was every reason to expect the Bucks to at least reach the NBA Finals, and now that they are virtually assured of not doing that this year--no NBA team has come back from a 3-0 deficit, though if any team could do it Milwaukee in the "bubble" has as good of a shot as any team--it is inevitable that Milwaukee's front office, coaching staff, and players will face a lot of scrutiny.
One has to wonder how much of an impact the NBA's brief strike had on the Bucks. The Bucks were the first team to go on strike, at the instigation of reserve guard George Hill. Hill made it clear before, during and after the strike that he regretted coming to the "bubble"--and most of the NBA players made it clear after the brief strike that they wanted to be in the "bubble" and they did not want to cancel the playoffs. It is hard to imagine that Hill's attitude has had zero impact on the Bucks. That being said, the Bucks showed some signs of slippage in the final games prior to the COVID-19 shutdown, and the team has a sub-.500 record in its past 21 games (spanning the original regular season, the seeding games and the eight playoff games), a shocking decline considering how well the team had played for the previous 140 games or so.
Overreaction is as much a part of the playoffs as matchups and buzzer beaters.
Overheated commentators routinely declare that whatever happened in the
most recent playoff game not only can be used to predict the outcome of
the next game but also to write the definitive evaluation of the
legacies of players, coaches, and franchises. Make no
mistake, Miami has looked like the superior team for most of the series versus Milwaukee,
but the 3-0 margin is a little deceptive: Miami won game two on a
deadball free throw, a very unusual ending for a playoff game, and Miami
won game three after posting the largest fourth quarter scoring margin
in NBA playoff history. A couple bounces here or there, and we would be looking at this series very differently. For example, Toronto was a miracle shot away from falling down 3-0 versus Boston in the other Eastern Conference second round series--and now the series is tied 2-2. As the great Tex Winter used to say, "Everything turns on a trifle."
Commentators and fans face no repercussions from reacting emotionally, but if team executives make decisions based on emotions the results can be disastrous. It would be foolish to conclude that Giannis Antetokounmpo cannot lead a team to a title or that the whole roster surrounding him now needs to be changed. Consider a little history from less than 15 years ago. Young Dirk Nowitzki and his Dallas Mavericks blew a 2-0 lead in the 2006 NBA Finals. Then, in 2007 the scrappy Golden State Warriors got the better of Nowitzki and the 67-15 Dallas Mavericks in the first round of the playoffs. How shortsighted would it have been for the Mavericks to give up on Nowitzki after back to back playoff disappointments? Four years later, Nowitzki outplayed LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh as the Mavericks defeated the Miami Heat in the 2011 NBA Finals. LeBron James spent the first half of his career falling short of ultimate success in the NBA playoffs before winning three titles in a five year span.
While several all-time greats won a championship early in their careers--including Bill Russell, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Julius Erving, Magic Johnson, and Larry Bird--others did not win their first title until they had played for many years. Skill set development, roster composition, playoff matchups--and, sometimes, injuries or other forms of uncontrollable misfortune--all impact a great player's chances to win a title.
I reject the notion that Antetokounmpo is unworthy of being regular season MVP based on his playoff performances thus far, and here I would distinguish him from Nowitzki. In 2007, I did not think that Nowitzki should have won the MVP because Kobe Bryant was a proven champion who also had a better regular season; Nowitzki had the far superior supporting cast that season and ended up not going any further in the playoffs than Bryant did in 2007. Antetokounmpo has been the best player on the best team in the Eastern Conference for two years in a row. He deserved last season's regular MVP, and--regardless of what happens versus Miami in the playoffs--he will be a deserving winner if, as is widely expected, he wins the 2020 MVP. Kawhi Leonard is a better playoff performer than Antetokounmpo and that is why Leonard owns two championships and two Finals MVPs--but load management is not a recipe for winning the regular season MVP. You could make a strong case for LeBron James being the 2020 regular season MVP, but James spends more regular season time in self-described "chill mode" than Antetokounmpo does. James Harden is an All-Star/All-NBA player, but his game is too gimmicky to qualify him as an MVP candidate--and, while Antetokounmpo is a young player who is still developing, we already have a large enough body of evidence to understand that Harden will not win a championship as his team's best player playing the way that he does (though he might win a championship as his team's second best player with Russell Westbrook providing energy, leadership, and paint points).
Why do I still believe that Antetokounmpo is an MVP caliber player who could be the best player on a championship team and how would I contrast his game with Harden's game? Antetokounmpo is 25 years old, he is 6-11 or 7-0 tall, he is a two-way player, and he has already demonstrated that he not only has a great work ethic but also that he makes no excuses for his play or his team's play. Harden is older, smaller, not a two-way player, and he has demonstrated that he prefers to work on the skills he has already developed as opposed to adding new dimensions to his game. Harden has improved his defensive effort in spots, and he makes fewer excuses than he used to make, but he does not elevate his game on a year to year basis the way that Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, and Kobe Bryant did. It is no coincidence that those players (along with Tim Duncan, who entered the NBA more fully developed after playing four years of college ball) have been the dominant champions of the past 40 years.
If I ran the Milwaukee Bucks, I would be a lot more concerned about George Hill and any other players who want out of the "bubble" than I would be about Antetokounmpo. Hill will likely get his wish very soon and be on his way out of the "bubble"; the Bucks have one more year to shore up the supporting cast around Antetokounmpo before he can leave as a free agent. I expect Antetokounmpo to continue to refine and improve his game, like Nowitzki and James did.
Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Dirk Nowitzki, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jimmy Butler, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks
posted by David Friedman @ 11:12 PM
L.A. Lakers Versus Houston Preview
Western Conference Second Round
#1 L.A. Lakers (52-19) vs. #4 Houston (44-28)
Season series: Houston, 2-1
Houston can win if…the Rockets effectively utilize Russell Westbrook to score in the paint and create shots for others to offset the inevitable stretches during which James Harden disappears/cannot make a shot. The Rockets went 2-1 with Westbrook during the first round after splitting the first four games of their series with Oklahoma City. For two or three months prior to the NBA shutting down due to COVID-19, Westbrook was playing as well as any player in the league, and he diversifies Houston's attack so that the Rockets are not relegated to just living and dying with three pointers. Since coming back from injury three games ago, Westbrook seems to have maintained his quickness but he lacks either the physical ability and/or the confidence to finish with authority in the paint. If Westbrook gets injured again or is not able to play for any other reason, L.A. could sweep Houston.
The Rockets must also limit their turnovers, force as many turnovers as possible, and do whatever they can to offset what is likely to be a significant rebounding disadvantage. If the Rockets cannot generate "extra" possessions then that will put even more pressure on them to shoot a very high percentage.
L.A. will win because…the Lakers have two of the five best players in the NBA: LeBron James and Anthony Davis. The Lakers have big, skillful players, and their size should overwhelm the Rockets, assuming that the Lakers do not get lazy and settle for jump shots.
James averaged 27.4 ppg, 10.2 rpg, and 10.2 apg during the Lakers' five game first round victory over Portland. He shot .600 from the field during that series. His productivity would be remarkable for any player, and is even more noteworthy considering that he is a 35 year old veteran of 17 NBA seasons. Davis led the Lakers in scoring (29.8 ppg) versus Portland while shooting .573 from the field and contributing 9.4 rpg, 4.2 apg, and 1.6 bpg. If James and Davis are focused and if they attack the paint then the undersized Rockets have no answers.
Although James refers to himself--and is referred to by others--as a "pass first" player, he remains a potent and efficient scorer. One difference is that in the past James always positioned himself as his team's first option but this season James has taken a step back and let Davis be the first option. It is not clear if this was a necessary condition for signing Davis and/or if this is a necessary concession to age. The Lakers still need James to score at least 25 ppg.
James picked Davis and built the roster around himself and Davis, so James has no valid reason to complain about his supporting cast. This team has the necessary talent and depth to win a championship, but in order to do that James--like the championship-winning superstars who came before him--must play at a high level on a consistent basis.
Other things to consider: As I expected, the Lakers lacked the focus necessary to sweep a vastly inferior eighth seeded Portland team, but after the Lakers lost game one they reeled off four consecutive wins, including two by at least 20 points each. Although it was fashionable in some quarters to pick Portland to beat L.A., if that had happened without James and/or Davis suffering a serious injury then that would have been perhaps the biggest first round upset in pro basketball history.
The Lakers will succumb to one or two games when the Rockets are hot from three point range, but--barring injuries or some other unexpected factor--the outcome of this series is not in doubt.
This is just the second playoff series in NBA history featuring two duos of 25 ppg scorers. James was involved in the previous such series when his Cleveland Cavaliers lost to the Kevin Durant-Stephen Curry Golden State Warriors in the 2017 NBA Finals.
James Harden may erupt for a 40 point game early in the series, but it should be no surprise when he flames out with 4-15 field goal shooting (or something like that) in the series finale--and, unlike the first round, Harden will not erase the memory of his poor shooting by coming up with a big blocked shot.
I am picking L.A. in six games.
Labels: Anthony Davis, Houston Rockets, James Harden, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Russell Westbrook
posted by David Friedman @ 4:02 AM
Rockets Survive Frenetic Final Seconds to Eliminate Thunder
Denver's game seven win over Utah ended with a wild sequence of events, but Houston and Oklahoma City topped that drama, with James Harden improbably making the key defensive play as the Rockets prevailed, 104-102. The Rockets led 103-102 when Chris Paul--who claims he lives for such moments--gave up the ball as the clock ran down, ultimately leaving the Thunder's fate in Luguentz Dort's hands. Harden blocked Dort's three point attempt with 4.8 seconds remaining. Dort retrieved the miss, but he had jumped from out of bounds and thus Houston retained possession. The Thunder used their foul to give and then fouled Robert Covington on the inbounds play with 1.4 seconds remaining. Covington split a pair of free throws. Then, Harden foolishly committed a dead ball foul, enabling the Thunder to potentially score a point with no time running off of the clock. The Thunder selected Danilo Gallinari to shoot the free throw, but Gallinari missed, squandering an opportunity to give the Thunder a chance to hit a two point shot to win. Now, the Thunder needed two points to tie or three points to win. Gallinari's missed free throw enabled the Rockets to overplay the three point line without having to fear losing on a two point shot, and P.J. Tucker stole Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's pass to end the game.
Harden deserves credit for blocking Dort's shot (and avoiding a foul in a league where officials now love to call fouls on three point attempts), but that does not change the fact that for 47 minutes and 56 seconds Luguentz Dort outplayed James Harden in game seven.
Let that sentence marinate for a moment. James Harden--the 2018 regular season MVP and a player who Daryl Morey ranks ahead of Michael Jordan as a scorer--was outplayed by Luguentz Dort. No disrespect to the hardworking Dort, but no MVP in his prime who is often compared to Michael Jordan should be outplayed by a role player at any time, let alone in a game seven. Dort scored a game-high 30 points on 10-21 field goal shooting--including 6-12 from three point range--and his defense played a major role in Harden's awful performance. Harden finished with 17 points on 4-15 field goal shooting, including 1-9 from three point range. Harden's floor game was solid--nine assists, three rebounds, three blocked shots, two steals, and four turnovers--but in the second half of a close game, Harden scored seven points on 2-7 field goal shooting; the player who supposedly can score at any time against any defense scored four points in the fourth quarter. I have said it for years, and I will say it again: Harden is an All-Star caliber player, but his inflated regular season numbers are the product of a gimmicky style that has not consistently worked--and will not consistently work--in the playoffs. The only way Harden ever belongs in the same sentence with Michael Jordan is if that sentence reads, "James Harden does not belong in the same sentence with Michael Jordan as a player, scorer, or leader."
Harden struggling in the playoffs and then coming up small in elimination games is not a new story. It is a pattern. During last year's playoffs, Harden and the Rockets produced what Charles Barkley termed "one of the worst choke jobs I've ever seen." Harden's bricklaying turnover fests in elimination games are an annual tradition.
Paul is the other guard in this series who receives endless love from the media. Paul had a triple double in game seven--19 points, 12 assists, 11 rebounds--but he
committed six turnovers, shot 5-11 from the field and did not take
command in the final minutes with the game up for grabs. He had the ball
in his hands with Houston up two, but instead of creating a good shot
for himself or a teammate he just gave up the ball without making a move
that threatened the defense--and that is the sequence that culminated
in Harden blocking Dort's shot.
During this series, Paul played well in the games his teams won--particularly in game six--but are we just supposed to forget how awful he was in game two (-36 plus/minus rating) and game five (-28 plus/minus rating)? Talking about how you are built for such moments after a game six win that does not end the series sounds really dumb when you disappear down the stretch of a game seven loss. Kawhi Leonard is built for this. That is why his trophy case includes championships and Finals MVPs. Kevin Durant is built for this. LeBron James is built for this to some extent, though he has had some baffling playoff performances for a player with his immense talents. Coming up big in some games, but ultimately losing suggests that you are not, in fact, built for this, if "this" is defined by consistent playoff success/deep playoff runs.
Paul is a future Hall of Famer who is quick and savvy, he is strong for his size, and he can be deadly from midrange--but size matters in the NBA and that is why there is only one player in the 6-0 height range who was a dominant performer for championship teams: Isiah Thomas. If we are going to praise Paul when he does well in the clutch, then we also have to note when he does not do well in the clutch, and we have to look at his body of work, including a long playoff resume that has just one Western Conference Finals appearance and no NBA Finals appearances. Not only did Paul have multiple subpar games during this series, he failed to organize his team down the stretch of a winnable game seven. The so-called "best leader in the NBA" (as Charles Barkley loves to say) who is praised for his basketball IQ ran an offense that generated six points in the final seven minutes of the fourth quarter.
Meanwhile, the guard who the media loves to denigrate quietly saved the series for the Rockets. Russell Westbrook, who recovered from COVID-19 before missing several games due to a quadriceps injury, made his first appearance in this series in game five. The Rockets were fizzling prior to Westbrook's return, losing two games in a row to turn a 2-0 series lead into a 2-2 tie. Westbrook looked rusty in game five, but he led the team in assists with seven, he grabbed six rebounds, he did not commit a turnover, and he provided an energy boost in a blowout Houston win that put the Rockets up 3-2. Anyone who follows sports and understands the challenges involved in coming back from an injury knows that the second game back can be more difficult than the first one, particularly when there is a quick turnaround. The media seemed to delight in spotlighting each of Westbrook's seven turnovers in game six while ignoring that Harden had five turnovers in that game. Still, there is no doubt that all of those turnovers--by Harden and by Westbrook--were very costly in a four point loss.
In game seven, Westbrook contributed 20 points on 9-20 field goal shooting. He also had nine rebounds, and he only committed two turnovers. His ability to exploit mismatches by driving and by posting up enabled Houston to score easy baskets that offset Harden's bricklaying; that extra dimension Westbrook provides is the difference between Houston winning this game seven, and losing elimination games in previous years when Harden choked and no one else on the team was willing or able to pick up the slack. Westbrook is clearly not 100% physically, and he did not shoot well in the fourth quarter but without his efficient production in the first three quarters the Rockets would not have been close enough for Harden's blocked shot to matter.
Eric Gordon also played a huge role, leading the Rockets with 21 points on 6-11 field goal shooting, including 5-9 from three point range.
This was a difficult series for me to handicap, and the only first round series that I got wrong. I could not decide who was more likely to choke between Harden and Paul, so the tiebreaker for me was that I assumed that Westbrook would miss so many games--and be so rusty if he returned--that the Thunder would prevail. Instead, Westbrook returned in game five and the Rockets went 2-1 when he played after going 2-2 in the games that Westbrook missed. Don't hold your breath waiting to hear anyone else mention that statistic, though; after all, Harden blocked a shot in the last five seconds, and that may be enough for the league to figure out a way to put Harden on the All-Defensive Team. Morey may soon declare that Harden is not only a better scorer than Jordan but also a better defensive player with five seconds left in a game seven; after all, Jordan never blocked a shot to seal a game seven win, and the numbers never lie, right?
Labels: Chris Paul, Houston Rockets, James Harden, Luguentz Dort, Oklahoma City Thunder, Russell Westbrook
posted by David Friedman @ 1:41 AM
L.A. Clippers Versus Denver Preview
Western Conference Second Round
#2 L.A. Clippers (49-23) vs. #3 Denver (46-27)
Season series: L.A., 2-1
Denver can win if…Jamal Murray continues to set playoff scoring records, Nikola Jokic dominates in the paint, and the Nuggets are able to contain Kawhi Leonard down the stretch of close games. Also, the Nuggets must display more defensive consistency than they did during the regular season and the first round of the playoffs.
L.A. will win because…The Nuggets have no answer for Kawhi Leonard's all-around brilliance. Leonard has no discernible weaknesses. He scores, rebounds, passes, and defends at an elite level. Not only does he score prolifically, but he can score in a variety of ways--including the midrange game that "stat gurus" deride but that historically has been a vital ingredient for championship teams; Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Durant, and Kawhi Leonard each won multiple championships and multiple Finals MVPs as midrange assassins. LeBron James did not start winning titles until he was willing and able to make midrange shots against elite competition in the playoffs. Overeliance on three point shooting leads to
high variance results, and dominant post players can be double-teamed (or fouled if they are subpar free throw shooters), but it is almost impossible to effectively double team a midrange assassin without giving up wide open high percentage shots to the midrange assassin's teammates.
Leonard led the Clippers in scoring (32.8 ppg), rebounding (10.2 rpg), assists (5.2 apg), and steals (2.3 spg) while shooting .538 from the field as the Clippers beat the Dallas Mavericks 4-2 in the first round. He did not shoot well from three point range (.294) but the Clippers still shot .404 from three point range overall in no small part because he attracts so much defensive attention. Leonard's offensive game--particularly at playoff time--is a less flashy but no less effective version of the offensive games of Jordan and Bryant. Leonard attacks the hoop when possible, kills from the midrange with consistency, takes the shots that he wants (not the shots the defense wants him to take), makes key three pointers even if his percentage is not great, and he is a premier fourth quarter closer.
There are still three rounds left in the playoffs, but if Kawhi Leonard
leads the Clippers to the title and wins the Finals MVP he will become
the only player in pro basketball history to win a championship and a
Finals MVP with three different franchises. Leonard does not
consistently post dominant regular season statistics, but he is
assembling a postseason resume that could elevate him to Pantheon
status. His career is unusual from the standpoint that Pantheon players
tend to dominate in both the regular season and the playoffs, but if
winning championships is the ultimate goal and Leonard ends up winning
as many (or more) championships during this era as any of the greatest
players who are his contemporaries then how could Leonard not be ranked
as a Pantheon-level player? Again, there is a lot of basketball left to
be played, but I am very impressed by Leonard's consistent excellence
and his ability to elevate good teams to the championship level.
Paul George put up decent scoring, rebounding, and assist numbers versus Dallas (18.5 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 4.0 apg) but he shot just .358 from the field and he looked out of sorts for much of the series. He has publicly stated that he has been battling some mental health issues while in the "bubble," and he deserves credit for speaking candidly about those issues. I certainly hope that his mental health improves and stabilizes. That being said, and I will choose my words carefully here, if he had not mentioned his mental state publicly and we just looked at his numbers, his performance to this point is not substantially different from his career playoff averages (20.0 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 3.9 apg, .417 field goal shooting). It is fair to say that he has not proven that he could be the first option on a championship team, and he has a great opportunity playing alongside Leonard to prove that he can be the second option on a championship team.
Other things to consider: There will be a quick two day turnaround for the Nuggets from their
game seven win over Utah to game one of this series. Game one winners tend to win playoff series, and this game one figures to be an uphill struggle for Denver, though of course that is somewhat mitigated by the absence of home court advantage in the "bubble."
The Clippers have several players who have hothead tendencies, including Patrick Beverley, Montrezl Harrell, and Marcus Morris. In a close game, a technical foul or a flagrant foul could be the difference, so if the series is competitive then the behavior of those players bears watching. Harrell could have easily been fined or suspended for his racist remarks directed toward Luka Doncic, and Morris is fortunate that he was not fined or suspended for his double karate chop against Doncic; Morris was assessed a flagrant foul 2 and automatically ejected from game six, but the Clippers survived without him.
I am picking L.A. in six games.
Labels: Denver Nuggets, Jamal Murray, Kawhi Leonard, L.A. Clippers, Nikola Jokic, Paul George
posted by David Friedman @ 3:19 AM
Survive and Advance: Denver Defeats Utah 80-78 in Game Seven
"Survive and advance" is a phrase often used in reference to the NCAA Basketball Tournament but it applies to the thrilling--or heartbreaking, depending on your perspective--conclusion to the Denver-Utah first round series. Denver led 80-78 and appeared to be poised to clinch the game at the free throw line after Gary Harris stole the ball from Donovan Mitchell, but instead Torrey Craig inexplicably drove to the hoop and missed a layup. Rudy Gobert snared the rebound and passed to Mike Conley, who fired a three pointer just before time expired. The cliche about "a game of inches" never rang more true than after Conley's shot went halfway down the hoop and then spun out as the buzzer sounded. Those few inches determined the fate of both teams; the Nuggets survived and will advance to face the L.A. Clippers, and the Jazz are heading home.
This series was a roller coaster ride, with Utah taking a 3-1 lead and then Denver storming back to force a game seven. Denver's Jamal Murray and Utah's Donovan Mitchell set a host of scoring records in the first six games. One wonders if the high scoring exploits in this series--and in the "bubble" in general--can be explained by all of the games being played at a neutral site, by a lack of travel, and/or by the players being refreshed from having extended time off before the
restart. It is worth remembering that the two highest scoring playoff games--Michael Jordan's 63 points in 1986, and Elgin Baylor's 61 points in 1961--were both authored by players who missed substantial portions of the preceding regular seasons. Similarly, Mitchell's 57 points in game one of this series--the third highest single game playoff output ever--came after a shortened regular season (and a four month break).
Denver's Nikola Jokic played very well in the first six games (25.7 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 5.7 apg, .513 field goal shooting) but his all-around play was overshadowed by the Murray-Mitchell scoring pyrotechnics. However, Jokic was by far the best player in game seven, scoring a game-high 30 points, grabbing a team-high 14 rebounds, passing for four assists, and shooting 12-23 from the field. After averaging 34.0 ppg on .585 field goal shooting in the first six games of the series, Murray scored 10 points on 4-7 field goal shooting in the first half, but he shot just 3-14 from the field in the second half to finish with 17 points on 7-21 field goal shooting.
Mitchell averaged 38.7 ppg on .548 field goal shooting in the first six games, but he struggled mightily in the first half of game seven, scoring just seven points on 3-7 field goal shooting while committing five turnovers. Mitchell had four more turnovers in the second half--including one on the Jazz' second to last possession--and he shot 6-15 from the field to finish with 22 points on 9-22 field goal shooting with nine turnovers and just one assist. Commentators selectively decide which moments to focus on but--as Mitchell noted in his post-game press conference after game seven--all
possessions matter, and Mitchell lamented various errors/lapses that he and his team
made throughout the series; were it not for those mistakes, the series
may not have been decided by a last second shot. Utah had a 3-1 lead,
and the Jazz missed many opportunities to finish the series prior to
game seven.
"Stat gurus" rave about the value of three point shooting and drawing fouls and offensive efficiency, but this game demonstrated once again that in playoff basketball--and particularly in a seventh game--defense and mental toughness become paramount. In game seven, every possession becomes a mental and physical grind, and the shooting percentages often plummet.
During the Chicago Bulls' "Last Dance," the Bulls had to survive game seven of the Eastern Conference Finals versus the Indiana Pacers; the Bulls won 88-83 as Michael Jordan shot 9-25 from the field--but Jordan grabbed five of the Bulls' 22 offensive rebounds as the Bulls outrebounded the Pacers 50-34. Similarly, in
game seven of the 2010 NBA Finals, Kobe Bryant shot 6-24 from the field but he grinded his way to a game-high 23 points plus 15 rebounds as his L.A. Lakers defeated the Boston Celtics (the first of a series of super teams put together in the past dozen years or so). Jordan and Bryant are both in a special category of players who can not only string together 30 point games during long playoff runs after long regular seasons, but can also overcome the mental and physical grind that it takes to win a game seven. Jordan went 6-0 in the NBA Finals, while Bryant went 5-2 in the NBA Finals; they produced at an elite level for an extended period of time. Look at how drained Murray and Mitchell were by the seventh game of a first round series after having the benefit of four months off, and then multiply that by all of the regular season games and all of the playoff games that Jordan and Bryant played, and only then can one start to appreciate the greatness that Jordan and Bryant exemplified.
On Wednesday night, the "small ball" Houston Rockets will rely on their
high variance three point shooting to attempt to survive and advance versus the underdog Oklahoma City Thunder. It is a good bet that the Houston-Oklahoma City game seven will be decided not by three pointers made but rather by which team does better at grinding out possessions. Chris Paul advanced past the first round in six of his first 14 seasons, while James Harden advanced past the first round in six of his first 10 seasons (including four out of seven since he went to Houston and became the Rockets' top offensive option), so the only thing that we know for sure is that one of these players who often does not play in the second round will make it at least that far this year.
Labels: Chris Paul, Denver Nuggets, Donovan Mitchell, Houston Rockets, Jamal Murray, James Harden, Nikola Jokic, Oklahoma City Thunder, Utah Jazz
posted by David Friedman @ 12:57 AM
John Thompson: Iconic Leader and Coach
John Thompson's career spanned several eras and included two legendary teams--one that he joined as a player, and one that he built as a coach. Thompson's death yesterday just days short of his 79th birthday is yet another sad event in a year overflowing with death and tragedy; in the basketball community alone, we lost
David Stern and
Kobe Bryant in January, and then Cliff Robinson and Lute Olson within the past week.
Thompson won two NBA championships in two seasons as Bill Russell's backup center with the Boston Celtics. Thompson was selected by Chicago in the 1966 expansion draft, but he retired to begin his coaching career. Six years later, he took over a moribund Georgetown basketball team that had posted a 3-23 record the previous season and had made just two postseason appearances since 1952. The Hoyas improved to 12-14 in Thompson's first season, they reached the NCAA Tournament in his third season, and they rapidly developed into a powerhouse. From 1982-85, the Hoyas made three NCAA Championship Game appearances in four seasons, winning the 1984 title. Thompson bristled at any commentary about being the first black coach to win an NCAA Division I basketball title, noting that there had been many worthy coaches before him who did not receive the opportunities that they deserved.
Thompson is revered by the players who played for him, and respected by
his opponents. He was an assistant coach for the 1976 U.S. Olympic team
that won a gold medal, and in 1988 he coached the final all-collegiate
team that the U.S. sent to the Olympics; that squad won a bronze medal, a
disappointing result but in retrospect perhaps not as surprising as it
may have seemed at the time: other countries were rapidly closing the
gap with the U.S. basketball team, and it no longer made sense to send
collegians to compete against seasoned professionals.
Thompson was a central, indispensable figure in the rise of the
Big East as a power conference. A good argument could be made that no basketball conference was ever as dominant in a single season as the Big East was in 1985, and Georgetown was right in the middle of that dominance, losing in the 1985 NCAA Championship Game to Villanova, a fellow Big East team.
The phrase "Hoya Paranoia" was often used to describe the attitude of Thompson's teams. "Hoya Paranoia" is partially an image intentionally created by Thompson to intimidate opponents, and partially a media invention to
stigmatize the team as a group and the players as individuals. Thompson's Georgetown teams were known for playing tough, physical defense. The anchor of that defense during Georgetown's glory days was Patrick Ewing. Racist fans taunted Ewing with vile chants during Ewing's collegiate days, and they held up signs saying "Ewing is an Ape" and "Ewing Kant Read Dis."
I interviewed
Ewing and he was far from being a paranoid or intimidating or mean person. He is an intelligent and thoughtful person who was generous with his time with me, a writer who he did not know and who he could have easily brushed aside (as an NBA assistant coach, he did not have to do media availability and was not required to speak with me).
Ewing told me, "Coach Thompson is a great person and a great coach. I felt that I came
to Georgetown as a boy and left there as a man. He taught me a lot of
things not only on the basketball court but also in life. He played the
position so he could give me a lot of insights about the center
position." For the past three seasons, Ewing has served as the head coach for Georgetown after paying his dues for many years as an NBA assistant coach. One can imagine how much pride Thompson felt about Ewing's accomplishments, and how much pride Ewing must feel about following in his mentor's footsteps.
Thompson coached two other Hall of Fame centers: Dikembe Mutombo and Alonzo Mourning. Later, Thompson coached Hall of Fame guard
Allen Iverson. Iverson was sent to jail for four months as an 18 year old for his alleged role in a bowling alley altercation, but Iverson was subsequently granted clemency by the Virginia governor prior to the Appeals Court overturning Iverson's conviction based on insufficient evidence. Throughout Iverson's ordeal, Thompson stood by Iverson, so it is no surprise that after Thompson passed away Iverson sent out a heartfelt message including these words: "Thanks For Saving My Life Coach."
Many years ago, I tried to schedule an interview with Thompson, but it never worked out. I respected his
basketball acumen and I would have been fascinated to speak with him not only about basketball but also his status as a leader and role model.
Labels: Boston Celtics, Georgetown, John Thompson, Patrick Ewing
posted by David Friedman @ 9:23 PM
Milwaukee Versus Miami Preview
Eastern Conference Second Round
#1 Milwaukee (56-17) vs. #5 Miami (44-29)
Season series: Miami, 2-1
Miami can win if…the Heat are able to limit Giannis Antetokounmpo's paint touches without compromising their defense against Milwaukee's three point shooters. The Heat are the only Eastern Conference team to post a winning head to head record versus the Bucks this season, and Miami's only loss to Milwaukee was a seeding game when both Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic did not play. The Heat must continue to get strong play not only from Butler and Dragic, but also Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, and Duncan Robinson, each of whom averaged at least 12.5 ppg as the Heat swept the Indiana Pacers in the first round.
Milwaukee will win because…The Bucks are a well-balanced team; they can score in a variety of ways, and they are very good defensively. The Bucks are willing to concede a few three point shots to specific players, but they focus on shutting down the paint.
Antetokounmpo has emerged as the best player in the NBA for at least the past two seasons. During Milwaukee's 4-1 victory over Orlando in the first round, he led the Bucks in scoring (30.6 ppg) and rebounding (16.0 rpg) while shooting .590 from the field, and he also ranked second on the team in assists (6.0 apg). Antetokounmpo has already been selected as the NBA's Defensive Player of the Year for 2019-20, and he must be considered the favorite to win the 2019-20 MVP award as well. Antetokounmpo won the 2018-19 MVP, so if he wins a second MVP then he would join the elite group of pro basketball players who have won at least two regular season MVPs (Bob Pettit, Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, Mel Daniels, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Julius Erving, Moses Malone, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, Karl Malone, Tim Duncan, Steve Nash, LeBron James, and Stephen Curry). Note that every one of those players except for Karl Malone and Steve Nash eventually won at least one championship, and most of them won at least two championships.
Khris Middleton did not have a great series versus Orlando, but he is an All-Star and I expect him to be more focused and efficient versus Miami.
Other things to consider: A shoulder injury limited Butler's minutes and effectiveness in game four versus Indiana. It is vital for Miami that Butler is at full strength, or pretty close to full strength.
I have not mentioned George Hill up to this point because I do not expect him to have a major impact on this series. I have long respected him as a solid role player, but he is not a difference maker. In the past week, it has become apparent that he has an elevated sense of his importance. I understand that these are challenging times for a variety of reasons, and I understand that it may not be easy to stay in the "bubble" with so much happening--but no one is a prisoner in the "bubble" and if I were one of Hill's Milwaukee teammates then I would tell him "Either you're in or you're out. If you're in, then stop talking about not wanting to come here or not wanting to stay here. If you're out, then go home."
I am not saying that Hill should not speak about whatever issues he wants to speak about--but I am saying that it is disrespectful to his teammates to keep talking about not wanting to be there when they are making the same sacrifices that he is making not only to pursue an NBA championship but also to use their platform to promote their perspectives about social justice. If Hill thinks that he has better things to do by himself outside of the "bubble," then he is free to give up his salary, go home and do those things. He does not seem to understand that if he were not a bench player for the best team in the East then no one would know who he is, or that if he leaves the "bubble" on his own no one is going to care what he says or does. It has been reported that during Wednesday night's heated players-only meeting Udonis Haslem--in a message clearly directed at Hill--stated that it is "irresponsible and selfish" for veteran players to talk about striking when the younger players are not in a financial position to take such a drastic step. Hill led the way regarding the impulsive
strike, and then the NBA's real leaders scrambled to figure out a plan for what to do next.
If Hill left the team, the
Bucks might be better off at this point, particularly if he is already
as mentally checked out as he seems to be. No one is watching the Bucks to see Hill play, and--while Hill has a right to express his opinions--no one is particularly interested in hearing more about Hill's opinions.
I am picking Milwaukee in six games.
Labels: Bam Adebayo, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Goran Dragic, Jimmy Butler, Khris Middleton, Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks
posted by David Friedman @ 1:15 AM
