Germany Advances to FIBA World Cup Finals After Upsetting Team USA, 113-111
Team USA will have to settle for the bronze medal--at best--in the FIBA World Cup after losing 113-111 to Germany. Andreas Obst led Germany's balanced attack with 24 points while shooting 6-11 from the field (including 4-8 from three point range) and 8-9 from the free throw line. Franz Wagner added 22 points, while Daniel Theis (21 points), Dennis Schroder (17 points), Moritz Wagner (10 points), and Johannes Thiemann (10 points) also scored in double figures. Keep in mind that FIBA games last 40 minutes, so giving up 113 points in a FIBA game is mathematically equivalent to giving up 136 points in a 48 minute NBA game--and that is a horrible defensive performance that will add up to a loss almost every time.
Anthony Edwards led Team USA with 23 points, followed by Austin Reaves (21 points), Mikal Bridges (17 points), and Jalen Brunson (15 points). Brandon Ingram missed the game due to an upper respiratory illness, but he has been a non-factor during the FIBA World Cup, averaging just 5.7 ppg. Team USA shot well--38-65 (.585) from the field, including 12-25 (.480) from three point range--but Team USA also shot well and scored over 100 points in their loss to Lithuania. It has been proven time and time again that Team USA's success in FIBA competition is linked to defense in general and three point defense specifically. Much has been said about Team USA's roster composition--specifically, the lack of size--but Germany only outrebounded Team USA 30-28. The real issue is that Team USA did not use their speed and depth to put enough pressure on Germany to create turnovers and contest shots. Germany committed 10 turnovers while Team USA committed nine turnovers, but it is vital for Team USA to force a large number of turnovers and then convert those extra possessions into easy scoring opportunities; the turnovers that Team USA failed to force combined with the numerous wide open shots that Team USA conceded proved to be the difference.
From an individual talent standpoint, there is no German player who would start for Team USA, and few if any German players who would have even been selected for the Team USA roster had they been American citizens, so USA Basketball has to take a long, hard look not only at roster composition but also coaching philosophies. Should the Team USA roster be constructed based primarily on individual talent, or on actually putting together a group of players who can collectively play championship-caliber basketball in FIBA events? Is Team USA's coaching staff putting enough emphasis on the importance of perimeter defense, and is the roster comprised of players who grasp and implement that message? Two of the best Team USA squads ever--the 1992 Dream Team and the 2008 Redeem Team--featured guards/wing players who applied tremendous defensive pressure on the perimeter, primarily Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen in 1992 and Kobe Bryant and Jason Kidd in 2008.
The current version of Team USA is not good enough at pressuring ballhandlers, and is not disciplined enough in terms of getting back on defense and making sure that every shot is contested. It is safe to say that the 1992 U.S. team and the 2008 U.S. team would beat this year's Lithuania team and this year's Germany team by more than 20 points each, so while it is true that other countries have improved at basketball it is also undeniably true that Team USA has regressed from both a talent standpoint and an execution standpoint. I understand that the 2023 FIBA World Cup squad is not our "A" Team, but even our "B" Team should beat Lithuania and Germany, because those squads are not as good as the truly great FIBA teams from outside the United States such as Argentina's squads led by Manu Ginobili and Spain's teams led by Pau Gasol--and it must be noted that many other countries also sent their "B" Team, as Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo are just the two most prominent of many non-American players who skipped the 2023 World Cup.
The bottom line is that we have seen this story before: Team USA losing to less talented teams because Team USA played awful defense.
Germany took an early lead with lights-out shooting and then prevailed after a late Team USA rally fell short. Germany shot 41-71 (.577) from the field overall, including 13-30 (.433) from three point range, but even those exceptional numbers do not tell the full story of how well Germany shot--or how poorly Team USA defended, depending on your perspective. Germany led for most of the game, and led by double digits for most of the fourth quarter. Germany built a 25-15 first quarter lead while making 4 of their first 7 three pointers and also scoring on several backdoor cuts to the hoop. Germany led 33-31 at the end of the first quarter while shooting 9-14 (.643) from the field overall, including 4-8 (.500) from three point range. Team USA shot 11-20 (.550) from the field, including 3-7 (.429) from three point range. Mikal Bridges topped Team USA with seven first quarter points, while Franz Wagner and Andreas Obst scored nine points each for Germany. As is often the case, the first quarter set the tone for the entire game; despite all of the attention often paid to late game heroics and "clutch time" statistics, what happens in the first quarter is very important and is mistakenly overlooked by commentators who do not understand the sport.
Team USA led 60-59 at halftime. Team USA's offense was productive and efficient with 22-37 (.595) field goal shooting, including 8-15 (.533) from three point range, but Team USA's defense was not good, permitting Germany to shoot 20-36 (.556) from the field, including 7-14 (.500) from three point range. Germany outrebounded Team USA 18-13. Bridges and Edwards led Team USA with 15 points each, while Franz Wagner (14 points) and Daniel Theis (13 points) paced Germany.
The third quarter was a defensive disaster for Team USA, as Germany poured in 35 points on 13-19 (.684) field goal shooting, including 5-10 (.500) from three point range. Keep in mind that 35 points in a 10 minute quarter projects to 168 points in a 48 minute game. With all due respect to Germany's team, any NBA team that gave up 168 points to a squad led by Schroder, the Wagner brothers, Theis, and Abst would quite possibly be the worst defensive team in league history--but much more should be expected of a Team USA roster that includes the 2023 Defensive Player of the Year (Jaren Jackson Jr.), the 2023 Rookie of the Year (Paolo Banchero), and a host of highly touted young players such as Anthony Edwards, Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, and Tyrese Haliburton.
Germany led 94-84 heading into the final stanza. Facing elimination, Team USA had their best defensive quarter of the game, holding Germany to 19 points on 8-16 (.500) field goal shooting, including 1-6 (.167) from three point range, but it was too little, too late, and that lone three pointer proved to be a dagger: Obst's trey with 1:14 remaining put Germany up 111-107, and then Schroder sealed the deal with a step back jumper at the :40 mark to push the lead to 113-107.
Germany will play Serbia in the gold medal game on Sunday, while Team USA will face Canada in the bronze medal game. It will be very interesting to see how focused and motivated Team USA is when battling a Canadian team that is less talented than Team USA but talented enough to pull off the upset if Team USA continues to play poor defense. It will also be interesting to see how Team USA's failure is spun by media members and by USA Basketball personnel; this is without question a failure, and that failure is caused by poor defense in general and poor perimeter defense in particular, the same factors that have caused previous failures by Team USA in FIBA events.
Labels: Andreas Obst, Anthony Edwards, Austin Reaves, Daniel Theis, Dennis Schroder, FIBA World Cup, Germany, Mikal Bridges, Team USA
posted by David Friedman @ 4:58 PM
Team USA Routs Italy 100-63, Advances to FIBA World Cup Semifinals
Team USA bounced back from their 110-104 loss to Lithuania in FIBA World Cup pool play, defeating Italy 100-63 to reach the semifinal round. Team USA held Italy to 7-38 (.184) shooting from beyond the arc while also shutting down Italy's offense inside the arc (16-37, .432) and dominating the boards 51-33. Mikal Bridges led Team USA with 24 points and seven rebounds (tied with Bobby Portis Jr. for team-high honors). Anthony Edwards, Team USA's leading scorer in the tournament (17.3 ppg), finished with just three points on 1-6 field goal shooting, but Team USA has many players who can score proficiently and efficiently; Team USA is only in danger when they do not execute the correct defensive game plan by smothering the opposing team's guards to shut down the three point shooters while also disrupting entry passes into the post.
Team USA will face the winner of Wednesday's Germany-Latvia game. Germany features several players who are familiar to NBA fans, including Dennis Schroder, Franz Wagner, Moritz Wagner, and Daniel Theis. Germany has a 5-0 record in the 2023 FIBA World Cup. Davis Bertans is the only active player on Latvia's team who has NBA experience; his brother Dairis, who played 12 games for the New Orleans Pelicans during the 2019 season, tore his hamstring during Latvia's 88-86 upset win over France and he will miss the rest of the FIBA World Cup. Latvia has a 4-1 record in the 2023 FIBA World Cup, losing only to Canada the game after Bertans was injured.
Meanwhile, Lithuania can finish no higher than fifth place after getting
blown out by Serbia, 87-68. Lithuania shot 14-25 (.560) from three
point range and 24-47 (.511)
from inside the arc while dominating Team USA 43-27 on the boards, but
Serbia--in marked contrast to Team USA--understood the assignment, and
held Lithuania to 9-28 (.321) three point field goal shooting while
winning the rebounding battle 33-28 in a contest during which both teams
shot well from inside the arc.
Labels: FIBA World Cup, Italy, Mikal Bridges, Team USA
posted by David Friedman @ 9:54 PM
Team USA's FIBA World Cup Loss to Lithuania is Deja Vu All Over Again
Team USA's 110-104 loss to Lithuania yesterday in the final game of pool play in the 2023 FIBA World Cup very much resembled other upset losses that Team USA has suffered in previous FIBA events. Lithuania shot 14-25 (.560) from three point range and 24-47 (.511) from inside the arc while dominating Team USA 43-27 on the boards. It did not matter that Team USA shot a solid .379 (11-29) from three point range or a blistering .636 (28-44) from inside the arc, because Lithuania's lethal combination of deadly three point shooting and paint domination were too much to overcome. Lithuania led by as many as 21 points (33-12, 52-31, and 54-33) in the first half before Team USA finally played some second half defense to mount a comeback.
NBA fans are probably only familiar with one name from Lithuania's roster: Jonas Valanciunas has averaged a double double in each of the past four seasons--two with Memphis followed by two with New Orleans--but he has never been selected as an All-Star or an All-NBA Team member. Valanciunas had a solid performance versus Team USA (12 points, seven rebounds), but he was just one of seven double figure scorers for a balanced Lithuanian attack that both fired away from the perimeter and attacked the hoop aggressively. Anthony Edwards led Team USA with a game-high 35 points on 14-26 field goal shooting and he had a +4 plus/minus number, but only three of his teammates scored at least 10 points. Eight of the 12 Team USA players had negative plus/minus numbers, so the squad lost ground almost no matter what combination Coach Steve Kerr put on the court.
In general, FIBA basketball is lightly covered and poorly understood in America. The FIBA World Cup (known as the FIBA World Championship until 2010) has
been held since 1950 at intervals of between three to five years. Team
USA won the event in 1954, 1986, 1994, 2010, and 2014. Team USA did not
use NBA players in this event until 1994, which explains why Team USA
won only twice in the first 11 FIBA World Championships held between 1950 and 1990; other countries regularly sent their professional players, who were generally bigger/stronger and always more experienced than American college players. Team USA
did not use NBA players in 1998 because of the NBA lockout, resulting in
a bronze medal finish. In 2002, Team USA's NBA players suffered a
humiliating sixth place finish, and in 2006 Team USA's NBA players settled for the bronze medal after losing to Greece in the semifinals. In 2010, Kevin Durant led Team USA to the gold medal, while Kyrie Irving won the FIBA World Cup MVP as Team USA took the gold medal again in 2014. Team USA's NBA players finished seventh in 2019, the worst result ever for an American team in any major FIBA event.
Reporters covering Team USA regurgitate the same flawed commentary either out of laziness or because they just don't understand what they are watching. We are told that Team USA needs bigger players to battle on the boards, and that Team USA needs more shooters. In a September 4, 2007 article titled "The Real Story Behind Team USA's Losses in Previous FIBA Events," I provided analysis about the FIBA game that is still relevant and timely today:
In my game recaps from the FIBA Americas tournament, I frequently
mentioned that, contrary to popular belief, the biggest problem that
Team USA has had in recent FIBA events has come at the defensive end of
the court. That is why I did a post before the tournament titled "Team USA Needs Bruce Bowen More than it Needs Michael Redd."
The way things turned out this time around, Team USA did not need
either player, going 10-0 without Bowen and with Redd getting the vast
majority of his minutes and points after Team USA had built commanding
leads. The fact that Team USA won without Redd making a meaningful
contribution when the games were close essentially proves my point but,
looking forward, it is important to understand the challenge that Team
USA is likely to face in the 2008 Olympics. The FIBA Americas tournament
did not feature the top FIBA teams; Argentina, the strongest squad that
participated other than Team USA, essentially sent its "B" team and did
not have the services of Manu Ginobili, Andres Nocioni, Fabricio Oberto
and Walter Herrmann. When Team USA faces a fully loaded Argentina team
plus the top teams from Europe it will be necessary to play defense with
intensity and intelligence in order to win the gold medal. Fortunately,
Team USA made great strides in that department in the FIBA Americas
tournament, spearheaded by the backcourt defensive wizardry of Kobe
Bryant and Jason Kidd. Shutting down opponents' three point shooting
while also denying dribble penetration leads to rebounds and steals that
get converted into open court scoring opportunities. As Carmelo
Anthony, LeBron James and Kobe Bryant just proved with their exceptional
shooting and their tremendous per minute scoring rates in the FIBA
Americas tournament, when Team USA plays this way the addition of
designated outside shooters to the roster is a luxury, not a necessity...
It is mystifying that anyone could believe that Team USA could have
turned any of these recent FIBA losses into wins simply by adding three
point shooting specialists to the roster; those kind of players would
have done nothing to improve the team's shoddy defense and the lack of
transition scoring opportunities would have meant that they would not
have gotten many great open looks at the hoop. Three point specialists
do not generally create their own shots and the half court offense that
Team USA was running would hardly have provided them the time and space
that they need to shoot accurately.
It is true that in general size matters in the NBA, but the reality is that the best American NBA players at the moment are not big players, and a properly constructed/well-coached Team USA can win FIBA events despite being undersized; further, Team USA's three point shooting defense is much more important that Team USA's own three point shooting. Team USA's current roster has four players listed as 6-10 or taller: Jaren Jackson Jr., Paolo Banchero, Bobby Portis Jr.,and Walker Kessler. Jackson leads that quartet in mpg (17.2) but ranks just sixth on the team in minutes, and he is averaging only 2.8 rpg. Banchero is averaging 3.4 rpg in 15.9 mpg, while Portis is the best rebounder of the bunch at 4.0 rpg (third on the team) in 11.6 mpg. Kessler is not part of the rotation, averaging 6.1 mpg.
What matters most for Team USA in FIBA play is creating tremendous defensive pressure against opposing guards; this limits both open three point shots and the ability to easily feed post players in prime scoring position, while also creating turnovers and rebounding opportunities that can be turned into transition offense.
Team USA lost to France in the first game of the 2020 Olympics (played in 2021) because of defensive breakdowns, not because of lack of size or lack of three point shooting. Team USA corrected those defensive breakdowns, and defeated France in the gold medal game. Team USA shot just 9-32 (.281) from three point range in the gold medal game, but Team USA held France to 10-31 (.323) three point shooting without conceding ground in the paint, and that has consistently been the recipe for success in FIBA play: shut down the three point shooters without compromising the interior defense. If Team USA makes three pointers that is a nice bonus, but it is not necessary for victory; in contrast to Team USA--which can use athleticism to create transition scoring opportunities--most FIBA teams rely on their three point shooting, and if that weapon is neutralized then Team USA has a big advantage.
Despite the loss to Lithuania, Team USA will advance out of pool play to
the quarterfinals, and has already qualified for the 2024 Olympics. However, Team USA must improve defensively to win the 2023 FIBA World Cup and to win Olympic gold in 2024.
Labels: Anthony Edwards, FIBA World Cup, Jonas Valanciunas, Lithuania, Steve Kerr, Team USA
posted by David Friedman @ 10:20 PM
