20 Second Timeout

Denver Versus L.A. Lakers Preview

Western Conference Finals

#1 Denver (53-29) vs. #7 L.A. Lakers (43-39)

Season series: Tied, 2-2

L.A. can win if…LeBron James and Anthony Davis continue to attack the paint at both ends of the court. James and Davis pummeled the undersized Golden State Warriors, culminating in a 122-101 game six victory to end their second round series. After leading the Lakers to the 2020 NBA title in the Orlando "bubble," James and Davis led the Lakers to a first round loss in 2021, the Draft Lottery in 2022, and the seventh best regular season record in the Western Conference in 2023. The Lakers needed overtime to survive their Play-In Tournament game versus the shorthanded Minnesota Timberwolves last month, but James and Davis played very well in the first round against the injury-depleted Memphis Grizzlies before dispatching the Warriors.

Will James and Davis continue to attack the paint versus a Denver team that is bigger, deeper, and more cohesive than the Lakers' first two playoff opponents? If James and Davis continue to attack the paint, will the Nuggets be able to slow them down? Can Davis individually or the Lakers collectively limit Nikola Jokic's productivity and efficiency? The outcome of this playoff series will be decided by the answers to those three questions, because this series will be determined in the paint by the play of James and Davis for the Lakers versus the play of Nikola Jokic, Aaron Gordon, and Michael Porter Jr. for the Nuggets.

James is averaging 23.4 ppg, 10.0 rpg, 5.3 apg, and 1.3 bpg in the 2023 playoffs. He is posting the third best rebounding numbers of his playoff career, and his blocked shots average is the second best of his playoff career. Those statistics are remarkable for a 38 year old player in his 20th pro campaign--but they are also necessary: if James reverts to jacking up too many three pointers and playing indifferent defense, then the Lakers have no chance.

Davis is averaging 21.2 ppg, 14.7 rpg, 3.3 bpg, and 1.4 spg in the 2023 playoffs. He ranks second on the team in scoring and field goal percentage (.530), and first in rebounding, blocked shots, and steals. Davis is posting playoff career-high numbers in rebounding and blocked shots.

Austin Reaves has emerged as the team's third best two-way player, averaging 15.4 ppg in the playoffs while also making his presence felt defensively. D'Angelo Russell is averaging 15.7 ppg in the playoffs while ranking second on the team in assists (5.0 apg) behind James. Rui Hachimura is averaging 11.2 ppg in the playoffs while leading the team in field goal percentage (.570). Lonnie Walker IV is only averaging 6.8 ppg in the playoffs, but he has played his way back into the rotation after saving the Lakers in the fourth quarter of game four versus Golden State.

How important is three point shooting to the Lakers' success? The Lakers rank 11th (out of 16 teams) in three point shooting percentage during the 2023 playoffs, and they rank 13th in three point field goal attempts. Anyone who suggests that the Lakers are winning now because they have great three point shooting is, quite frankly, a person who is not watching the games and not aware of the pertinent statistics. When the Lakers won the 2020 "bubble" title, they ranked 12th in playoff three point field goal percentage and 11th in playoff three point field goal attempts. They did not have "lasers" in 2020 and they don't have "lasers" now.

In the Nuggets' 4-2 second round win versus the Phoenix Suns, Jokic tied an NBA record by posting three triple doubles in one series, and he averaged 34.5 ppg, 13.2 rpg, and 10.3 apg while shooting .594 from the field. He scored, rebounded, and shot like prime Kareem Abdul-Jabbar while putting up assist numbers like prime Magic Johnson! Jokic's overall playoff numbers this season are 30.7 ppg, 12.8 rpg, and 9.7 apg with a .549 field goal percentage. He is exceeding his excellent career playoff averages (27.2 ppg, 11.7 rpg, 7.0 apg, .525 field goal percentage) in four major categories.

Jokic is transcendentally great, but the Nuggets are not a one man team. Jamal Murray averaged 24.8 ppg, 6.5 apg, and 4.8 rpg versus the Suns, and four other Nuggets each averaged double figures in scoring while shooting at least .453 from the field (Bruce Brown, Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr., Kentavious Caldwell-Pope).

The Nuggets are not considered to be a great defensive team, but they held the Suns' high-powered offense to 107 points or less in four of the six games--including the 125-100 game six series-clincher--after the Suns averaged 113.6 ppg during the regular season.

The Nuggets have the best player in the series, they have a deep roster, they have a fine-tuned offense, and their defense is solid enough.

The Lakers beat the Nuggets 4-1 in the 2020 Western Conference Finals in the "bubble," but that year Jokic averaged 19.9 ppg, 9.7 rpg, and 7.0 apg during the regular season: he was a two-time All-Star but not yet a two-time regular season MVP.

If the Lakers play the right way by attacking the paint then they can pose more challenges for the Nuggets than their first two playoff opponents did, but Jokic will be the best player in the Western Conference Finals, and Denver will defeat L.A. in six games.

Labels: Anthony Davis, Denver Nuggets, Jamal Murray, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Nikola Jokic

posted by David Friedman @ 5:11 PM

8 comments

Forceful Lakers Overwhelm Warriors to Advance to the Western Conference Finals

LeBron James and Anthony Davis dominated the paint at both ends of the court as the L.A. Lakers bludgeoned the Golden State Warriors 122-101 to win game six of their second round series and advance to the Western Conference Finals for the first time since the Lakers won a championship in the Orlando "bubble" in 2020. James conducted a master class in controlling a game, scoring a game-high 30 points on 10-14 field goal shooting while grabbing nine rebounds and passing for a game-high nine assists. This was LeBron James' 18th 30 point game in a series clincher, one behind Michael Jordan's all-time record and five ahead of both Kobe Bryant and Stephen Curry. James was economical and efficient from beyond the arc (2-3) but--much more significantly--he relentlessly attacked the paint, which was the key factor in this series and has always been the key factor for this team since James and Davis joined forces.

Davis had a game-best +31 plus/minus number, a greater testament to his impact than his boxscore numbers, which were nevertheless quite good: 17 points on 5-9 field goal shooting, a game-high 20 rebounds, two blocked shots, and two steals. The defensive numbers do not capture the reality that every time a Warrior drove to the hoop Davis was a powerful presence in the paint deterring any shot attempts. The rebounding numbers--including 17 defensive rebounds--reflect the reality that after Davis and his teammates forced a miss he completed those possessions by controlling the ball. The great Bill Russell used to say that there is one ball, and that he and his teammates decided what would happen with that ball during the game.  Davis is not close to being as great as Russell was, but when Davis plays with that mindset the Lakers are tough to beat.

Early in the game, ESPN's Jeff Van Gundy declared, "It's all about the paint for James." After describing how attacking the paint puts the defense on their heels, draws fouls, and creates scoring opportunities for the rest of the team, Van Gundy added, "And the same thing for Anthony Davis." It really is that simple; this is not about trades or roster construction or "lasers" or making one player a scapegoat for the extended periods when the team's two biggest stars either did not play or did not attack the paint when they played.

This is about two great players playing up to their potential and attacking the paint.

The Warriors struggled to win road games all season long and it was that Warriors team--not the Warriors team that won the 2022 championship--that showed up in L.A. for game six. Their defense--the real key for their four championship teams, despite the media's incessant focus on three point shooting--fell apart, allowing the Lakers to shoot .520 from the field. Meanwhile, with Davis shutting down the paint the Warriors relied on jacking up three pointers, but any offensive team that cannot threaten the paint is not going to get enough good looks to shoot well from beyond the arc; the Warriors shot 13-48 (.271) from three point range. Stephen Curry labored to score a game-high 32 points: he shot just 11-28 from the field, including 4-14 on three pointers. Klay Thompson scored eight points on 3-19 field goal shooting, including 2-12 from beyond the arc. Donte DiVincenzo (16 points) was the only Warrior other than Curry to score in double figures. 

It should be noted that without dominant play from Curry and Thompson, Draymond Green's much-lauded impact on the game is undetectable, and you would not even notice him in the game other than when he runs his mouth and gets a technical foul. Green should thank heaven every day that he was blessed with the opportunity to play alongside Curry and Thompson (and Kevin Durant). If Green had spent his career on a less talented team, he would not have been able to lift that team up, and he would likely have few playoff appearances, no All-Star selections, and no All-Defensive Team selections. Green is a very, very good role player who carries himself like he is a big-time star. To be clear, I don't deny that his defense and passing have been important for the Warriors as part of a much larger, well-oiled machine--but my point is that the truly great players can elevate any roster (think of Kobe Bryant making the playoffs twice with Kwame Brown as his center and Smush Parker as his point guard), while the impact of role players is very situational dependent: even in a "bad" game (by his lofty standards), Curry can score over 30 points, make an impact, and force the defense to deal with him, while a player like Green authors the proverbial "triple single" and is just another face in the crowd.

Throughout the playoffs, I have provided updates about the "tremendous trio" that the Lakers acquired in exchange for future Hall of Famer Russell Westbrook. I do this to refute false media narratives about why the Lakers struggled early in this season and about why the Lakers are playing better now. Even though the Lakers entered game six with a 3-2 lead and a chance to close out the series at home, Lakers Coach Darvin Ham inserted Dennis Schroder in the starting lineup in place of Jarred Vanderbilt; typically, the team that is behind makes lineup changes, but Ham understands what I have been saying for a while: Vanderbilt is a "3 and D" player who cannot make three pointers. Vanderbilt played slightly less than four minutes in a game that the Lakers won by 21 points, and Malik Beasley also played slightly less than four minutes; this means that two of the three players who the Lakers acquired in the much discussed and much praised Westbrook trade have now played themselves out of the rotation. The third player acquired in that deal, D'Angelo Russell, scored 19 points on 7-15 field goal shooting; he averaged 14.7 ppg on .456 field goal shooting (including .310 from three point range) during the series, numbers that are in line with his overall 2023 playoff averages. During this year's playoffs, Westbrook--at times the number one option for the L.A. Clippers after both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George suffered injuries that knocked them out of action--averaged 23.6 ppg on .410 field goal shooting (including .357 from three point range) while averaging 7.6 rpg and 7.4 apg (Russell has never had more than seven rebounds in a playoff game, and he has had more than seven assists just five times in 23 career playoff games).

Also, let's not pretend that the Lakers became a juggernaut right after the Westbrook trade; a little over a month ago, the Lakers needed overtime to beat a shorthanded Minnesota team in the Play-In Tournament. 

What has changed in the past month? The biggest change is that Davis and James are now playing in every game after missing 26 and 27 regular season games respectively. The second biggest change is that Davis and James are now consistently playing in the paint with force, something that was true sporadically during the regular season (and this was also an issue last season, when Davis and James combined to lead the Lakers straight to the Draft Lottery). The third biggest change is that Austin Reaves and Lonnie Walker IV--both of whom have been with the team all season--have developed into very good rotation players. Reaves is better than any of the players who the Lakers acquired in exchange for Westbrook, while Walker IV saved the day for the Lakers in game four and scored 13 points in 14 minutes in game six.

After watching the Lakers fumble and stumble for the past three years, I was skeptical that Davis and James would ever again consistently play the way that they did during their 2020 championship run in the Orlando "bubble," when they dominated the paint at both ends of the court. Facing an injury-decimated Memphis team and a Golden State team that no longer looks like a powerhouse has benefited the Lakers--but I did not think that the Lakers would win a series against either team, and I was wrong about that.

However, I am not wrong when I analyzed what the Lakers need to do to be successful: the Lakers followed that paint domination blueprint all the way to the Western Conference Finals. It will be very interesting to watch the Lakers battle a Denver Nuggets team that consistently stayed atop the Western Conference all season long.

Labels: Anthony Davis, Golden State Warriors, Klay Thompson, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Stephen Curry

posted by David Friedman @ 9:31 AM

8 comments

Heat Outlast Knicks, Advance to the Eastern Conference Finals

Barely a month ago, the 44-38 Miami Heat lost to the 41-41 Atlanta Hawks in the first game of the Play-In Tournament, forcing the Heat to win their next Play-In Tournament game to avoid missing the playoffs. The Heat beat the Chicago Bulls 102-91 to slip into the playoffs, but they seemed unlikely to make much noise in the postseason. Tonight, the Heat beat the New York Knicks 96-92 to win their second round series 4-2 and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. This may not be the most improbable playoff run in NBA history--it should be remembered that last season the Heat finished with the Eastern Conference's best record (53-29)--but it is on the short list. Jimmy Butler led the way with 24 points, but he shot just 7-22 from the field in a defensive struggle (or offensive quagmire, depending on your perspective) during which the Heat shot .402 from the field and the Knicks shot .380 from the field. Bam Adebayo scored 23 points on 9-20 field goal shooting, and he had a team-high nine rebounds. Max Strus contributed 14 points and six rebounds, while Kyle Lowry made a significant impact off of the bench with 11 points and a game-high nine assists.

Jalen Brunson completed one of the most prolific playoff series in Knicks' history (31.0 ppg) by scoring 41 points on 14-22 field goal shooting. Brunson joined Bernard King as the only players in the Knicks' storied history to score at least 30 points in four games in one playoff series. He played 45 minutes after playing all 48 minutes in New York's game five win. When Brunson was in the game, the Knicks' offense ran more smoothly than it did during his brief rest, even on possessions when he did not take the shot and did not make the assist pass. In the first half, the Knicks outscored the Heat by six points when Brunson was in the game, and the Heat outscored the Knicks by seven points when Brunson was not in the game, resulting in a 51-50 halftime lead for the Heat.

Julius Randle had a miserable shooting game, even by the low standard set by both teams: he shot just 3-14 from the field, finishing with 15 points and a team-high 11 rebounds. R.J. Barrett was even worse, managing just 11 points on 1-10 field goal shooting. Josh Hart scored his 11 points much more efficiently on 5-10 field goal shooting, but no other Knick scored in double figures. 

The Knicks raced to a 31-17 first quarter lead, but their anemic offense could not keep up that pace or maintain that margin; the Knicks scored just 19, 21, and 21 points in the final three quarters, and the Heat outscored them in each stanza. The Heat led 51-50 at halftime, and even though they never pushed that margin into double digits they also never trailed again.

Despite the disappointing ending--and contrary to the obnoxious wailing "Screamin' A" Smith does--this was a successful season for the Knicks: how many people would have predicted before the season that this squad would be playing in game six in the second round of the playoffs? The Knicks need to add some more scoring and playmaking to go to the next level, but a good foundation is in place because this team is well-coached, physical, and defensive-minded. If you listen to "Screamin' A"--and no one can blame you if don't--all you hear is him making infantile, immature rants about New York's players without giving any credit to Miami's defense and without providing any analysis about what actually happened during the game. The Heat trapped Brunson, angled the left-handed point guard to the right side of the court, and cut down his passing lanes, a task made easier because the Knicks do not have a reliable secondary playmaker and they do not have enough outside shooting to punish that kind of defense. Brunson did the best that he could do, but he needs a little more help. The Knicks did not get blown out, nor did they quit; they just came up a little short.

It is difficult to know what to make of the Heat, other than acknowledging that they are a rare proverbial "team nobody wants to face" that has lived up to that usually false designation. Erik Spoelstra is a great coach, and Jimmy Butler is a big-time player. Bam Adebayo is undersized but he is skilled and he plays hard. Kyle Lowry is an aging, undersized player with physical limitations, but he is very intelligent and he has a bulldog mentality. The Heat's role players understand their roles, accept their roles, and are prepared to perform every game. In retrospect, perhaps it is more surprising that the Heat had a mediocre regular season--injuries obviously had an impact, though they are showing the ability to overcome injuries during their playoff run--than that they are performing at a high level in the playoffs.

Labels: Bam Adebayo, Jalen Brunson, Jimmy Butler, Julius Randle, Miami Heat, New York Knicks

posted by David Friedman @ 11:47 PM

2 comments

Nuggets Blot Out Suns, Who Fall Meekly in an Elimination Game for the Second Year in a Row

The Denver Nuggets may hear the doubters, but they are not paying attention to them. The Phoenix Suns are the latest franchise whose attempt to build a super team went down in flames, as the Nuggets rolled into Phoenix for game six and then rolled over the Suns 125-100 to win their second round series and advance to the Western Conference Finals for the second time in four years. The game was not nearly as close as that score might suggest. Two-time regular season MVP Nikola Jokic had to settle for making the All-NBA Second Team this season, but he did not look like second team anything as he hit the Suns with 32 points, 12 assists, and 10 rebounds, extending to 11 his record for most career playoff triple doubles by a center (a mark held by Wilt Chamberlain--who had nine--for more than 50 years). Jamal Murray, whose availability was in doubt due to a non-COVID illness, added 26 points, four assists, and four rebounds. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope contributed 21 points, five rebounds, and strong defense.

Cameron Payne more than ably filled in for injured Phoenix point guard Chris Paul, scoring a team-high 31 points on 12-16 field goal shooting. However, Payne's elevation into the starting lineup plus the insertion of Jock Landale into the staring lineup in place of injured starting center Deandre Ayton left the Suns' already thin bench almost completely barren; the Suns' reserves scored 12 points on 6-14 field goal shooting. Landale scored 13 points and grabbed five rebounds, while Devin Booker finished with 12 points on 4-13 field goal shooting plus a team-high eight assists.

Kevin Durant, who struggled to score efficiently throughout the series, finished with 23 points on 8-19 field goal shooting. After the game, he declined an invitation to provide context for his performance or the team's performance, stating simply that he takes responsibility and that any context he attempts to provide will be dismissed as excuses. Say what you will about Durant's team-hopping, but Durant is a hard worker who plays the right way and makes no excuses. It is a shame that basketball fans did not get treated to multiple Golden State versus Oklahoma City playoff series with Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson battling against Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, but Durant's choice to flee from accepting that challenge does not diminish what he has accomplished during his career.

Remember all of the "experts" who termed the Suns the proverbial "team nobody wants to face" because of the Booker-Durant duo? Building a championship team is not as easy or instantaneous as making microwaved food for dinner, and the basketball gods have once again issued that message loudly and clearly. Maybe Booker and Durant will win a title together eventually, but it was not realistic to believe that a roster thrown together near the end of the season with no depth and no chemistry would survive four playoff rounds this year.

Remember all of the "experts" who mocked Deandre Ayton and insisted that the Suns should get rid of him? Those hot takes did not age well as the Suns sans Ayton lost the rebounding battle 41-29 while getting outscored in the paint 62-46.

I wonder if the MVP voters who chose Joel Embiid over Nikola Jokic still believe that Embiid is a better basketball player than Jokic and that Embiid has a greater impact on winning. Jokic has now earned his second conference finals appearance, while Embiid just lost at home in a closeout game and now needs a game seven win in Boston to make his first conference finals appearance.

Hubie Brown provided color commentary for ESPN, his first national TV appearance since New York's game three win versus Miami on May 6. It is not surprising that Brown, who led the Kentucky Colonels to the 1975 ABA title with a frontcourt featuring Hall of Famers Artis Gilmore and Dan Issel (and Hall of Fame guard Louie Dampier), loves Jokic: "He's a destroyer at both ends of the floor," Brown said before the game. "He's the total package, and he's leading his team."

Throughout the game, Brown marveled at Jokic's skills while also breaking down what makes him great. After yet another series of deft post moves resulted in a Jokic basket, Brown said, "That's what I like about his game. He slows down, and he has that baby hook." Brown added, "I enjoy watching him play any time from the foul line down. He has so many moves."

The Nuggets led 81-51 at halftime, breaking the record for most points in a half by a road team in the history of the NBA playoffs. Last year, the Dallas Mavericks humiliated the Suns 123-90 in game seven in Phoenix, and in that game the Suns also trailed by 30 at halftime.

Just before halftime, Brown summarized how the Nuggets dominated the Suns: "The defense for Denver has been outstanding" and Denver's "offense has been winning the paint." As the game--and the Suns' season--came to an end, Brown explained why Phoenix lost: "They cannot defend this team. They cannot defend their movement, and they cannot defend the painted area."

Regardless of how much some people talk about three point shooting, spacing, "gravity," and the relative efficiency advantages of shooting three pointers as opposed to posting up, timeless basketball fundamentals are still true and still matter: a team that plays excellent defense and controls the paint is best positioned to make a deep playoff run.

The highlight of this game for me--besides Jokic's all-around mastery and Brown's vivid descriptions of that mastery--happened during the fourth quarter when Brown and play by play announcer Dave Pasch paid tribute to 90 year old Phoenix broadcaster Al McCoy, who is retiring after this season. Pasch raved about the energy of both McCoy and Brown, who is 89 years old, and Pasch added that it is a treat for him to broadcast games alongside Brown. Brown and Pasch visited with McCoy before the game, and Pasch talked about how much he enjoyed listening to their stories from when they both joined the NBA more than 50 years ago. Pasch reminded younger viewers that Brown was an assistant coach with the 1974 Milwaukee team that reached the NBA Finals before serving as the head coach of the 1975 ABA champion Kentucky Colonels. Brown reminisced about his time with the Bucks--who had a young nucleus including Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Bob Dandridge surrounding veteran Oscar Robertson--and he mentioned that his Kentucky championship team had three Hall of Famers. Pasch added that Brown also coached Patrick Ewing and Bernard King with the New York Knicks in the 1980s and then had a successful run with the Memphis Grizzlies two decades later. It should be mentioned not only that Brown won the NBA Coach of the Year award in 1978 and 2004, but that he had top three finishes in 1979, 1980, and 1984.

Based on the scheduling of the remaining second round games and the likelihood that ESPN's main crew will do all of the Conference Finals games, this was probably Brown's last broadcast this season. I hope that he enjoys the offseason and comes back strong for the 2023-24 season!

Labels: Denver Nuggets, Devin Booker, Hubie Brown, Jamal Murray, Kevin Durant, Nikola Jokic, Phoenix Suns

posted by David Friedman @ 8:56 AM

3 comments

Teetering Tatum Steadies Himself, Saves Celtics in Fourth Quarter

For most of game six, Jayson Tatum's shot was so off target that he could not have hit the broad side of a barn with a laser-guided bazooka--but with the game on the line and the season at stake, Tatum scored 16 fourth quarter points on 4-8 field goal shooting (including 4-5 from three point range) to lead the Boston Celtics to a 95-86 road win over the Philadelphia 76ers. The 76ers had a golden opportunity to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2001, but they scored just 13 fourth quarter points on 5-20 field goal shooting (.250). It should surprise no one that James Harden scored zero points on 0-4 field goal shooting in the final stanza, a fitting conclusion to yet another "concert tour" performance for Harden, who thought that May 11 was April 16 (4/16 field goal shooting, 13 points, nine assists, seven rebounds, five turnovers)--and yes, I will keep mentioning that Daryl Morey insists that Harden is a better scorer than Michael Jordan until Morey publicly retracts one of the most absurd player comparisons ever made by an NBA executive.

Marcus Smart was the only Celtic who scored more than 20 points (22 points on 8-15 field goal shooting). Tatum finished with 19 points on 5-21 field goal shooting, plus nine rebounds, six assists, two steals, and two blocked shots; his overall shooting numbers are obviously and indisputably ugly, but both teams shot poorly in a defensive struggle, and when the game could have gone either way Tatum took control and made sure that the Celtics won. Jaylen Brown had a solid game (17 points, six rebounds, four assists). Robert Williams III, inserted into the starting lineup in place of Derrick White, had a huge impact with his athleticism, amassing a game-best +18 plus/minus number (tied with Smart) while scoring 10 points, grabbing nine rebounds, and blocking two shots. Malcolm Brogdon scored 16 points off of the bench.

Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey scored 26 points each. Embiid shot 9-19 from the field while snaring 10 rebounds and blocking three shots. Embiid was not the reason that the 76ers lost--but he also did not impose his presence on the game and dominate so that he would be the reason that they won. Maxey shot 9-20 from the field, and he played tenacious defense, which is not something he is known for doing. Tobias Harris scored just two points, but he is the fourth option at best on this team (and he was fifth on the team in field goal attempts in game six); he does not have the ball in his hands to create shot opportunities, and even though he is a good three point shooter he does not receive many spot up shots. Harris is the highest paid player on the team ($37.6 million this season), but he has never been given a role or responsibilities commensurate with his salary.

Harden is the player who Daryl Morey signed and paid $33 million this season to lift this team into championship contention. Much has been made about Harden's great performances in game one and game four, but this is the third time in six games this series that Harden's field goal percentage has been .250 or worse, and the 76ers lost all three of those games. Harden has a playoff resume stretching back more than a decade, and the consistent pattern is that he may have one or two good or great games in a series but he will also have several awful games, and he is regularly awful near the end of playoff series--and when Harden has a bad game, he tends to be even worse in crunch time, the exact opposite of what Tatum did in game six. There is probably some idiotic "advanced basketball statistic" that purportedly shows that Harden outplayed Tatum in game six. Anyone who watches basketball with understanding knows better.

The Celtics jumped on the 76ers right from the start. For all of the talk about the NBA being a fourth quarter league--and there is no doubt that the fourth quarter is important when a game is close, as this one was--the NBA is often a first quarter league: the team that takes command early often wins the game, even if the other team retakes the lead at some point. At the 7:19 mark of the first quarter, the Celtics led 12-3, and any 76ers players or fans who expected to show up at a coronation understood that the Celtics had no intention of just handing over the Eastern Conference crown that they won last season.

The Celtics were ahead 50-43 at halftime, but the 76ers used a balanced attack in the third quarter to take a 73-71 lead heading into the final 12 minutes. 

In the fourth quarter, Tatum did most of his damage in a dramatic three minute stretch when he hit three three pointers to help transform an 81-80 76ers advantage into a 92-84 Celtics lead.

This series has featured many twists and turns, but after six games we have arrived where we reasonably could have expected to arrive: the 57 win Celtics enjoy the advantage of having game seven at home versus the 54 win 76ers. These teams have different strengths and weaknesses--and the Celtics have a much better recent playoff pedigree than the 76ers--but they have proven to be rather evenly matched. 

Of course, this series is not over and the 76ers could still advance by winning game seven in Boston--but is it logical and reasonable to expect Embiid, Harden, and the 76ers to rise to the occasion on the road after falling on their faces at home?

Labels: Boston Celtics, James Harden, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers, Tyrese Maxey

posted by David Friedman @ 11:52 PM

4 comments

Warriors Roll in Game Five, Put Pressure on Lakers to Win Game Six at Home

Three Warriors scored at least 20 points and all five Warriors starters scored in double figures as the Warriors took an early lead versus the L.A. Lakers, withstood a Lakers run, and did not trail in the second half en route to a 121-106 game five win. Stephen Curry led the way with 27 points on 12-24 field goal shooting and a game-high eight assists. Andrew Wiggins had his best game of the 2023 playoffs (25 points, seven rebounds, five assists), and Draymond Green delivered a double double (20 points, 10 rebounds) instead of the triple single that he had in four of his previous 10 playoff games this year. Coach Steve Kerr inserted Gary Payton II in the starting lineup for the second consecutive game, and Payton II finished with a game-best +25 plus/minus number even though his boxscore numbers were modest (13 points, six rebounds). Klay Thompson continued to struggle (10 points on 3-12 field goal shooting), which is a concern not only for game six but for subsequent rounds if the Warriors survive and advance. The undersized Warriors outrebounded the Lakers 48-38, and only lost the points in the paint battle by two (52-50), which is a victory for the Warriors because they can expect to win the battle from beyond the arc (plus nine points in game six).

LeBron James led the Lakers with 25 points and nine rebounds. He played well, but he did not dominate, which is what is needed to win game five on the road, and the same can be said of Anthony Davis, who posted nearly identical numbers (23 points, nine rebounds). Davis left the game with 7:34 remaining in the fourth quarter after being accidentally hit in the head by Kevon Looney. The Lakers trailed 102-88 at that point, and Davis had a game-worst -22 plus/minus number, so his absence down the stretch is not why the Lakers lost this game. TNT's Chris Haynes reported that Davis had trouble walking (this was not evident in the video shown on television), and that he required a wheelchair to move around the bowels of the stadium. Davis' reputation for being tough and playing through injuries speaks for itself. ESPN showed footage of Davis walking out of the arena unassisted. Assuming that the wheelchair report is true--and I still have not figured out why Haynes is incapable of delivering a report about something that happened five minutes earlier without reading text messages on his phone from a source close to the situation--we can only hope that Davis recovers from what obviously must be a serious injury. I mean, Kobe Bryant once played in an All-Star Game with a broken nose, a concussion, and soft tissue damage in his neck after being hit in the face by Dwyane Wade, so if a member of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team cannot return to a playoff game and reportedly needs a wheelchair then we have to assume that he has suffered an injury more serious than a broken nose, a concussion, and soft tissue damage in his neck. So, if Davis does not play in game six or does not play well, we already know that he has good reason to disappear for the rest of this series. NFL player Chris Spielman vowed to retire if he ever had to be helped off of the field, but Dwyane Wade once needed a wheelchair for a shoulder injury, so each person defines toughness in his own way.

Both teams shot well in the first quarter, and the Lakers offset the Warriors' three point barrage (7-12 shooting from beyond the arc) with Davis' 13 points on 6-8 field goal shooting. That kind of three point shooting is not sustainable, but a big and skilled player attacking smaller players in the paint is sustainable (or, at least, it could be). The Warriors led 32-28 after the first 12 minutes.

Both teams continued to shoot well in the second quarter, but the Warriors won the points in the paint duel 20-12 while each squad made four shots from beyond the arc. The Warriors led 70-59 at halftime. The Lakers' vaunted defense apparently did not make the trip across California, staying home to get ready for game six. The teams played to a 23-23 tie in the third quarter, and then the Lakers threw in the towel near the end of the fourth quarter after not being able to make a meaningful dent in the deficit.

Almost every day, I read or hear some commentator asserting that Lakers General Manager Rob Pelinka turned the Lakers' season around by trading Russell Westbrook for D'Angelo Russell, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Malik Beasley. Some "experts" are even suggesting that Pelinka should be voted Executive of the Year--for putting together a team that struggled to make the Play-In Tournament, and then struggled to survive the Play-In Tournament!

Lakers Coach Darvin Ham does not share the same assessment of that trade as the "experts" do. How do I know that without speaking to Ham? In game six, with a chance to eliminate the Warriors, Ham played Vanderbilt for 11 minutes, and he did not put Beasley on the court until the final three minutes when both teams emptied their benches. Two of the three players from the supposedly brilliant trade have essentially played themselves out of the rotation because they are who I said they are: limited role players. Russell scored 15 points in 30 minutes, right in line with his playoff averages this season. Russell has some value as a rotation player when he is making his shots, but in other areas of the game he provides little to no value, so if he is not making his shots or not getting shot opportunities he is just another guy running around getting some cardio work done while other players decide the outcome of the game. 

The Lakers' best "trade" was when Davis became available down the stretch and actually put forth effort at both ends of the court. He is capable of being a fearsome defender and a very difficult to guard scorer in the paint. When James is also playing in the paint at both ends of the court, the Lakers can be pretty good. When the Lakers' defense is indifferent and when the Lakers are indifferent about attacking the paint, they give up 121 points, lose by 15, and get ready for the next game.

Road elimination games are tough, as the Knicks proved earlier in the evening by beating the Heat to send their series back to Miami for game six. The Lakers will likely find out that home elimination games versus the Warriors are not a picnic, either. At least the Lakers know that they can count on Davis and the "triumphant trio" to have big performances so that the Lakers do not have to return to Golden State for a winner take all game seven.

Labels: Anthony Davis, Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors, Klay Thompson, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Stephen Curry

posted by David Friedman @ 2:38 AM

6 comments

Resilient Knicks Stave Off Elimination, Force Game Six in Miami

The New York Knicks trailed the Miami Heat by as many as 10 points in the first half, but battled back to lead 50-47 at halftime, never trail in the second half, and win, 112-103. The Heat still lead this second round series 3-2, and can advance to the Eastern Conference Finals for the second consecutive season with a game six win at home. 

Jalen Brunson continued his excellent playoff run with another outstanding performance: game-high 38 points on 12-22 field goal shooting, nine rebounds, team-high seven assists. R.J. Barrett added 26 points and seven rebounds, and Julius Randle had 24 points, five rebounds, and five assists. The Knicks pummeled the Heat inside, winning the rebounding battle 50-34 and shooting 29-40 from the free throw line compared to just 16-19 for the Heat. Brunson and New York's other starting guard, Quentin Grimes, each played all 48 minutes.

Jimmy Butler led the Heat with 19 points, a quiet game by his playoff standards. He also had a game-high nine assists plus seven rebounds. Bam Adebayo had 18 points and eight rebounds. Duncan Robinson scored 17 points off of the bench in just 22 minutes. 

The first quarter looked like two drunk people in a rock fight: the Heat shot just 8-24 from the field (.364), but the Knicks shot even worse than that (6-20, .300), and thus the Heat led 24-14 as it seemed that both teams would struggle to score 90 points. The Knicks' offense came alive in the second quarter, mainly due to Brunson (14 points, four assists), and New York led 50-47 at halftime.

In the third quarter, the Knicks extended their lead to as much as 19 (73-54) before settling for an 84-74 advantage heading into the final stanza. Brunson scored 10 third quarter points.

The Heat never stopped battling even though they struggled to make shots, and they pulled to within two points (103-101) on a Butler free throw with 2:37 remaining, but the Knicks sealed their victory with a 9-2 closing burst.

Road elimination games are tough, but when this series shifts back to Miami the Heat will most likely shoot better and finish the job.

Labels: Jalen Brunson, Jimmy Butler, Julius Randle, Miami Heat, New York Knicks

posted by David Friedman @ 12:02 AM

0 comments

Nuggets Outshine Suns, Take 3-2 Series Lead

Nikola Jokic led both teams in scoring (29 points), rebounds (13), and assists (12)--his 10th career playoff triple double, breaking Wilt Chamberlain's record--as the Denver Nuggets took command early and breezed to a 118-102 win over the Phoenix Suns. Denver can close out the series and advance to the Western Conference Finals for the second time in four years by winning game six in Phoenix on Thursday night. Bruce Brown was sensational off of the bench, pouring in 25 points in 27 minutes, while Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. scored 19 points each. The Nuggets outrebounded the Suns 50-42, and they held the Suns to .432 field goal shooting, which is impressive considering that the Suns have a high-powered offense and the Nuggets are not considered to be a great defensive team.

Devin Booker, who is leading the NBA in playoff scoring this season (35.9 ppg), "slumped" to a team-high 28 points on 8-19 field goal shooting, and Kevin Durant continued his puzzling inefficiency in this series, shooting 10-24 from the field to amass 26 points. Durant led the Suns with 11 rebounds and seven assists. Starting point guard Chris Paul missed his third straight game due to injury, a recurring theme throughout his playoff career. In the previous two games, the Suns scored 121 points and then 129 points to tie the series at 2-2 after falling behind 2-0 while averaging just 97 ppg in two losses. It is interesting to wonder how the Suns would have performed had Paul not sat out: would they have won two high scoring games with Booker and Durant both putting up big numbers, or would the Suns have continued to lose? 

The narrative that often surrounds Paul's teams--and that has been promoted by "stat gurus" for his entire career--is that Paul's efficiency elevates everyone around him and is the driver of the offense. At the very least, in this small sample size of games we see that Booker, Durant, and the Suns are quite capable of scoring a ton of points--and twice beating the number one seed in the Western Conference--without Paul. That is not to suggest that Paul is a bad player or that his presence hurts his team, but it is to suggest that (1) his impact on team success is overrated and (2) to the extent that he impacts team success this impact is not consistently felt in the playoffs: Paul has been front and center for some embarrassing playoff debacles, including last year's 123-90 game seven loss at home to Dallas, and five blown 2-0 series leads (an NBA record for one player).

The Nuggets may be the most under the radar number one seed that we have seen in the NBA for quite some time--not that it matters too much what people who do not understand the sport think, but it is unusual that a consistently successful team led by a two-time regular season MVP is regarded so lightly. Considering the early elimination of the number one overall seed Milwaukee Bucks, and the shaky play of the Boston Celtics--who now trail 3-2 versus the Philadelphia 76ers--a logical argument could be made that the Nuggets should be considered the NBA championship favorites.

Labels: Chris Paul, Denver Nuggets, Devin Booker, Jamal Murray, Kevin Durant, Nikola Jokic, Phoenix Suns

posted by David Friedman @ 10:12 AM

6 comments

Embiid and Maxey Lead the Way as Sixers Silence Celtics in Boston

The best sound for a road team to hear--particularly in the playoffs--is silence. After the Philadelphia 76ers pushed their second half lead over the Boston Celtics to 21 points, the Boston Garden silence was deafening and stunning. The fans and the players alike knew that the 76ers would have a chance to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals with a home win in game six. Philadelphia's 115-103 game five victory is surprising both because of the 76ers' recent propensity to fold in this round of the playoffs and because the Celtics have reached the Eastern Conference Finals four times in the past six seasons.

Joel Embiid scored a team-high 33 points and he had a game-high four blocked shots. His field goal shooting (10-23) and rebounding (seven) were not dominant, but this is yet another example of the numbers not always telling the full story. The attention that Embiid attracted on offense opened up opportunities for his teammates as the 76ers shot .506 from the field, and Embiid's imposing presence in the paint played a major role in limiting the Celtics to .398 field goal shooting. Tyrese Maxey added 30 points and seven rebounds, while James Harden contributed 17 points, a game-high 10 assists, and eight rebounds. Tobias Harris scored 16 points, snatched a game-high 11 rebounds, and played excellent defense despite being limited at times by foul trouble.

This playoff series has had many vicissitudes, which is not unusual, but the 76ers may have found a formula for sustained success: flypaper sticky team defense anchored by Embiid in the paint, and an offense featuring Embiid as the first option, Maxey as the second option, and Harden as the third scoring option/primary playmaker.

While the 76ers appear to have the answers, the Celtics--whose motto for this season is "Unfinished Business"--are left with many unsettling questions:

1) Can they slow down Embiid without unleashing the 76ers' perimeter players?

2) Can they figure out a way to get Jayson Tatum going early in the game?

3) Can they get any production out of their bench, which was invisible for most of game five until racking up some meaningless buckets in garbage time?

Jayson Tatum scored a game-high 36 points, but he shot just 11-27 from the field and he was invisible in the first quarter as the 76ers took a 33-26 lead by the end of the opening stanza. Tatum's floor game was good--he finished with 10 rebounds, five assists, and two steals--but the Celtics need more consistency and better efficiency from a player who finished fourth in this season's regular season MVP voting. Jaylen Brown scored 24 points on 9-16 field goal shooting. He is consistent and reliable, but he does not seem to be a player who can just take over a game or a series. Marcus Smart was the only other Celtic who scored in double figures, but when the third option has 14 points on 2-7 field goal shooting that usually adds up to a loss. 

It is possible that the Celtics will get a big road win in game six and then survive and advance by taking game seven at home--but that will require a lot more focus and energy than the Celtics displayed in game five.

Labels: Boston Celtics, James Harden, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers, Tyrese Maxey

posted by David Friedman @ 11:09 PM

18 comments

Lonnie Walker IV Saves the Day for Lakers

In a game filled with future Hall of Famers on both teams, seldom-used reserve Lonnie Walker IV scored 15 fourth quarter points as the L.A. Lakers overcame a 12 point third quarter deficit to beat the Golden State Warriors 104-101 and take a 3-1 series lead. Walker IV had scored 29 points in six playoff games prior to game four, he ranked 11th on the Lakers in playoff minutes played per game, and he scored zero points in 15 minutes of action during the first three quarters of game four--but in the final stanza he shot 6-9 from the field while the Warriors managed just 17 points on 6-17 field goal shooting. It is difficult to think of a more unlikely hero or a more improbable finish, but full credit to Walker IV for staying ready and to the Lakers for having the foresight (or the desperation) to put him on the court in the fourth quarter.

LeBron James scored a team-high 27 points, but he shot just 10-25 from the field, including 2-9 from three point range. He had nine rebounds and six assists. The Lakers would benefit if James would attack the hoop instead of shooting so many three pointers, but he played 43 minutes and it is evident that fatigue is increasingly becoming a factor for him. No other player in pro basketball history has played at James' level in his 20th season, so any criticism of his play should take that into consideration, but the reality is that if the Lakers had not received an improbable scoring burst from an unlikely hero then all of the empty possessions when James fired up long jumpers instead of attacking the hoop would have been a major factor in the loss--but the Lakers won, and if they win one more game in this series to advance to the Western Conference Finals then few people are going to remember or care about James settling for jump shots.

Anthony Davis had 23 points plus a game-high 15 rebounds. He was not credited with a blocked shot, but his defense--both on the ball and as a help defender--played a significant role in this win. Davis was very active offensively in the first half with 19 points on 8-12 field goal shooting but he disappeared on that end of the court in the second half, producing four points on 2-4 field goal shooting. One would not expect that James heaving up errant jump shots and Davis not being involved in the offense would be a recipe for playoff success, but Lonnie Walker IV erased all of the Lakers' basketball sins.

Austin Reaves made an important contribution with 21 points and four assists.

If the Lakers win this series, epic poems and paeans will be written about the triumphant trio who the Lakers acquired in exchange for Russell Westbrook, so it is worth noting the performances of those three players in arguably the biggest game of the season:

D'Angelo Russell scored four points on 1-10 field goal shooting. Jarred Vanderbilt scored two points on 0-1 field goal shooting, and his much-vaunted defense is such an essential part of the new-look Lakers that he played 11 minutes. Malik Beasley did not play a single minute.

Call me crazy, but Davis dominating the paint, James being productive if not efficient, and a bench player who is probably not even on the Warriors' scouting report going nuts in the fourth quarter had more to do with the outcome than a "laser" who made one shot, a 3 and D guy who can't shoot and played less than the equivalent of one quarter, and another "laser" who saw no action.

Stephen Curry's fingerprints were all over this game and his performance included the good (31 points, 14 assists, 10 rebounds), the bad (12-30 field goal shooting, including 3-14 from three point range), and the ugly (two missed shots and a turnover in the final 26.4 seconds of regulation). Logo three pointers become cute memes when they go in, but they are not so cute when they clang off of the rim, and the same is true of step back fadeaways over the outstretched arms of Davis. After Curry missed two low percentage shots in a one possession game, the Warriors' last chance in this game--and, most likely, their season--rolled away when Curry caught the ball after a jump ball but threw it away instead of calling a timeout with less than two seconds remaining. The championship Warriors relied on their defense to the extent that they could survive the occasional wild shot and sloppy turnover (having Kevin Durant in the fold for two of the four championships also helped a lot); these Warriors are inconsistent defensively but still jack up wild shots and still make too many turnovers.

The other Splash Brother, Klay Thompson, scored nine points on 3-11 field goal shooting. Splash Brother apprentice Jordan Poole, who has recently griped about his playing time, was scoreless on 0-4 field goal shooting in 10 minutes. 

The Warriors went with a small lineup for most of this game, starting Gary Payton III instead of Kevon Looney or JaMychal Green. Looney played 11 minutes, and Green played three minutes. In general, I am not a fan of going small against a big team like the Lakers, but in this game the results were mixed: the Warriors outscored the Lakers in the paint 52-46, and were only outrebounded by 42-40. However, the main advantage of playing small would be to increase the pace, which would serve to tire out the bigger, slower Lakers while also attempting to make up in volume what the Warriors might lose in efficiency by trading three pointers for layups. Instead, the Warriors did not push the pace enough, did not play defense well enough, and unraveled in the final minutes of a winnable game. 

If Golden State's idea by going small was that the Lakers would be foolish enough to follow suit, it didn't work; the Lakers did not cut the minutes of Davis or James, and the Lakers proved once again that they can win without shooting well beyond the arc. Everyone who insists that the best way to build a team around LeBron James is to surround him with three point shooters should note that the Lakers shot 6-25 (.240) from beyond the arc.

If any team can come back from a 3-1 deficit it would be the Golden State Warriors--but I would trust previous versions of the Warriors more than I trust this version. In my series preview, I stated that the Lakers could win if Davis and James "consistently make their presence felt in the paint at both ends of the court." Davis has been less consistent than Lakers' fans might hope or want, but he and James have done what they do well better than the Warriors have done what they do well, and that is why the Lakers have an opportunity to end this series in game five at Golden State.

Labels: Anthony Davis, Golden State Warriors, Klay Thompson, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Lonnie Walker IV, Stephen Curry

posted by David Friedman @ 2:36 AM

1 comments

Heat Push Knicks to Brink of Elimination With 109-101 Game Four Win

The Miami Heat barely made the playoffs, but now they are one win away from returning to the Eastern Conference Finals after beating the New York Knicks, 109-101. Jimmy Butler authored another efficient and productive performance with a team-high 27 points on 9-17 field goal shooting, a team-high 10 assists, six rebounds, two steals, and two blocked shots. Butler may not receive any All-NBA First Team votes this season, but if the NBA had an All-Playoffs First Team he would be on it in 2023. Bam Adebayo had a strong performance inside (23 points, game-high 13 rebounds), Max Strus provided outside firepower (16 points on 6-13 field goal shooting, including 4-10 from three point range), and Kyle Lowry continued to do an excellent job running the second unit (15 points, five rebounds, four assists).

The Knicks received strong performances from their three top players, but the rest of the team wilted under the Florida sun. Jalen Brunson had a game-high 32 points on 10-21 field goal shooting, and he ran the offense smoothly with a game-high 11 assists and just one turnover. R.J. Barrett added 24 points on 9-16 field goal shooting, bouncing back from his subpar game three outing (14 points on 5-16 field goal shooting). Julius Randle has struggled mightily throughout the 2023 playoffs after averaging a career-high 25.1 ppg during the regular season, but he had his best shooting game of this postseason (8-13), finishing with 20 points and nine rebounds before fouling out. The other Knicks combined to score just 25 points on 10-26 field goal shooting (.385).

In my game three recap, I concluded, "The Heat are missing Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo, and Jimmy Butler is not at full strength, but every Heat player plays hard on every possession, and that has been the biggest difference in this series." Herro was the Heat's third leading scorer during the regular season (20.1 ppg), and Oladipo made valuable contributions off of the bench, but when players get injured the Heat make no excuses and they don't change the way that they play. "Next man up" is a cliche that every team adopts as a slogan when dealing with injuries, but the Heat live up to that notion, and they do it with several players who were not high profile prospects prior to being found and nurtured by the Heat. The Heat do not tank to get high draft picks; they scout for players who have potential, and then they develop that potential. What a novel and refreshing concept in an era when so many teams think that it is desirable and necessary to "tank to the top" (even though the evidence proves that tanking does not work). 

The Heat and Knicks both were not particularly impressive-looking squads during the regular season, but the Heat are finding their stride while the Knicks are realizing that a tough, playoff-tested team poses a much different challenge than an inexperienced team such as the Cleveland team that they dispatched in the first round.

Labels: Bam Adebayo, Jalen Brunson, Jimmy Butler, Julius Randle, Miami Heat, New York Knicks

posted by David Friedman @ 10:53 PM

4 comments

Big Performances by Booker and Durant Offset Jokic's 53 Point Game as Suns Win Game Four, Tie Series Versus Nuggets

It seems like a long time ago that Denver took a 2-0 lead versus Phoenix. Devin Booker (36 points on 14-18 field goal shooting) and Kevin Durant (36 points on 11-19 field goal shooting) led the way as the Suns beat the Nuggets 129-124 to tie the series at 2-2 and set up a critically important game five in Denver. The Suns' thin bench has been a problem since the Suns traded away several players to acquire Durant, so it seemed like the groin injury suffered by Chris Paul in game two that has forced him to miss games three and four would be a fatal blow--but without the aging Paul the Suns are pushing the ball up the court and creating easier scoring opportunities. Also, in game four Landry Shamet scored 19 points as the Nuggets unsuccessfully employed an "anyone but Booker or Durant" defense that intentionally left him open; that strategy failed because, as the above numbers show, the Nuggets not only failed to contain Booker and Durant but they enabled a third scorer to join the party.

Through the first nine games of a playoff season, few players have scored more points than Devin Booker has in the 2023 playoffs (331, 36.8 ppg), and no one who scored more than Booker had a higher field goal percentage than his .617. In the four games versus the Nuggets, Booker is averaging 36.3 ppg on .637 field goal shooting. It is fair to say that playing alongside Durant (who is averaging 32.0 ppg on .469 field goal shooting versus the Nuggets) has unleashed Booker's already potent offensive game. In the Suns' 121-114 game three win, Booker poured in 47 points while Durant added 39 points. Booker's 2023 playoff scoring is on a tier shared with only Wilt Chamberlain, Elgin Baylor, Jerry West, and Michael Jordan.

The Nuggets wasted a great performance by Nikola Jokic, who scored 53 points on 20-30 field goal shooting while also passing for 11 assists. The only center who scored more points in a playoff game is Wilt Chamberlain, whose 56 points on March 22, 1962 set the NBA's single game playoff record that stood for less than a month before sublime forward Elgin Baylor scored 61 points in game five of the 1962 NBA Finals. Jokic is putting up his own historic numbers in this series, averaging 36.5 ppg on .570 field goal shooting while leading both teams in rebounding (14.0 rpg) and assists (9.5 apg). In game three, Jokic had 30 points, 17 rebounds, and 17 assists. 

Jamal Murray had 28 points and seven assists, but no other Nugget scored more than 11 points. Murray is having an excellent series (26.0 ppg, 7.3 apg, 5.0 rpg), but the Nuggets need more consistent production from other players in order to counter the Booker-Durant pyrotechnics.

A bizarre play happened with 2:36 remaining in the second quarter and the Nuggets leading, 55-54. After the ball sailed out of bounds near the baseline, Phoenix owner Mat Ishbia refused to give the ball to Jokic. Jokic ripped the ball out of Ishbia's hands, and made light contact with Ishbia's chest, after which Ishbia flopped backwards as if he had been shot by a sniper. Meanwhile, another "fan" made contact with Jokic. The referees huddled together to sort things out, and decided to assess a technical foul against Jokic. The fan who made contact with Jokic was ejected, but Ishbia was not disciplined. After the game, Jokic mentioned that he thought that the NBA was supposed to protect players from the fans; Denver Coach Michael Malone made a similar point, noting that fans do not have a right to interfere in a game by holding on to the basketball and stating that this applies even if the fan is an NBA owner. 

The NBA office should rescind Jokic's technical foul, and--at the very least--publicly reprimand Ishbia while making clear what consequences will be dealt out if any fan (including an owner) engages in similar conduct. If the NBA office does not act, look forward to many other owners and courtside fans interfering in games: that free point matters in a close game, that technical foul moved Jokic one step closer to being ejected (and, if not rescinded, adds to a tally that could result in an automatic suspension if he accumulates more than seven technical fouls during the playoffs), and yet Ishbia has faced no consequences for blatantly interfering in the game. Also, I have no idea what the gambling line was for this game, but it is easy to see how an extra point could have a significant financial impact for anyone who bet on this game, which highlights the risk that the league has taken by entangling itself with gambling.

Regarding the game and the series overall, there is a tendency to overreact to each individual game as if there has been a major momentum shift. These teams are evenly matched, albeit with different strengths and weaknesses. I picked Denver to win in seven games, so I did not expect a Denver sweep after the Nuggets won the first two games at home and I do not expect the Suns to win out the rest of the way after winning their first two home games. It is normal for both teams to win games in playoff series, but in today's media world/social media world featuring hot takes that are a mile wide but only an inch deep people latch on to simple answers and biased narratives. Think about how crazy it is that three of the last four coaches who led teams to NBA titles (Mike Budenholzer, Frank Vogel, Nick Nurse) have been let go by the teams that they guided to the mountaintop; did all of those guys suddenly forget how to develop effective strategies and lead players? No, but we now live in a world that classifies every loss as a colossal failure for which blame must be assigned instead of as a step in a growth process. Many of the greatest coaches of all-time in a variety of sports took several years to win their first championship; in today's environment, would John Wooden, Tom Landry, Don Shula, Dean Smith, or Larry Brown have lasted long enough to put together their Hall of Fame resumes?

Labels: Denver Nuggets, Devin Booker, Jamal Murray, Kevin Durant, Nikola Jokic, Phoenix Suns

posted by David Friedman @ 11:02 AM

4 comments

Harden's Three Pointer Lifts 76ers to Overtime Win Versus Celtics in Game Four

James Harden scored a game-high 42 points and he drained the game-winning three pointer from the right corner with 19 seconds remaining in overtime to lead the Philadelphia 76ers to a 116-115 game four win over the Boston Celtics. The series is tied 2-2 and shifts back to Boston for a pivotal game five. Harden shot 16-23 from the field, and he had a game-high nine assists plus eight rebounds, a game-high four steals, and one blocked shot. In the long, distinguished history of the 76ers franchise, there is a short list of players who had at least 40 points, at least five rebounds, and at least five assists in the same playoff game: Wilt Chamberlain, Julius Erving, Allen Iverson, and James Harden.

Harden was awful in the previous two games, shooting a combined 5-28 from the field. He is obviously a talented, All-Star caliber player, but elite level greatness is defined by consistent high level production resulting in team success, not sporadic glittering performances sandwiched around terrible games.

Joel Embiid scored 34 points, grabbed a team-high 13 rebounds, and passed for four assists--including the feed to Harden for the game-winning shot. Embiid was not credited with a blocked shot, but his presence in the paint anchored Philadelphia's defense. Embiid became noticeably fatigued down the stretch, which limited his effectiveness at both ends of the court: he became a step slower defensively, and he became a much more passive player offensively, though he still managed to make some key plays.

Tyrese Maxey was the only other 76er who scored in double figures (14 points).

All five Boston starters scored in double figures, as did Sixth Man of the Year Award winner Malcolm Brogdon (19 points). Jayson Tatum led the Celtics with 24 points while also snaring a game-high 18 rebounds, dishing for six assists, and blocking four shots--but it was a tale of two halves for Boston's best player: he missed his first eight field goal attempts of the game (the worst such stretch at the start of any game in his playoff career), and he finished the first half with just two points on 1-9 field goal shooting. Tatum's slow start is a major reason that the Celtics trailed 59-50 at halftime and had to fight uphill for most of the game. Jaylen Brown scored 23 points on 10-16 field goal shooting. He was the only Celtic who made more than half of his field goal attempts, and when he had the ball he was the most aggressive and consistent Celtic throughout the entire course of the game; it was unfortunate for the Celtics that he did touch the ball often during the overtime, and that he did not attempt a single shot during the extra session.

Despite the Celtics' cold start and Harden's hot shooting, the Celtics battled all the way back from a 16 point deficit to take a 105-100 lead after Brogdon drained a three pointer with 2:04 remaining in regulation. NBA teams leading by five with two minutes or less remaining are overwhelming statistical favorites to win, but the 76ers tied the score less than one minute later after Harden scored on a drive and P.J. Tucker converted a putback plus a free throw to complete a three point play. Marcus Smart put the Celtics back on top by making a pair of free throws before Harden tied the game on a drive. The Celtics inbounded with 16.4 seconds remaining after Harden scored, and they elected to attack without calling a timeout, culminating with Smart missing a three pointer as time expired. Boston Coach Joe Mazzulla is being criticized for not using a timeout in that situation. Calling a timeout would have enabled the Celtics to advance the ball to midcourt without any time coming off of the clock and then run a set play--but it also would have permitted the 76ers to make situational substitutions and orchestrate a set defense. It is unlikely that the Celtics would have obtained a better shot after a timeout than the one that Smart took, and the Celtics executed that play to perfection in terms of leaving no time for the 76ers to shoot, ensuring that the Celtics would either win in regulation or fight for victory in overtime.

It would be more appropriate to question Boston Coach Joe Mazzulla's clock management and timeout usage at the end of the overtime session. After Harden's three pointer put the 76ers up by one point with 19 seconds remaining, the Celtics did not call a timeout and then proceeded to drain all of the time off of the clock without attempting a shot. Smart's three pointer for the win swished through the net, but he released the ball after time ran out. This late game scenario differed from what happened at the end of regulation because here the Celtics were trailing, which means that they could have used a timeout, advanced the ball to halfcourt before inbounding, run a set play for the game-winning shot attempt, and still had enough time left (plus one more timeout) to extend the game if they missed the shot and did not get the rebound.

Harden's game-winning shot happened because of another strategic breakdown: Brown left Harden alone in the corner to double team Embiid, giving Harden an open shot for three while the Celtics led by two; even if Embiid had scored against single coverage, the game would have been tied and the Celtics would have had the opportunity to go for a win. Brown's play was a very low percentage gamble at the worst possible time, and he admitted as much during his postgame media availability.

Modern day media coverage is focused on narratives and hot takes; it is fine to point out suboptimal plays and decisions, but it is not necessary or appropriate to draw sweeping conclusions based on one game. This game did not (1) redeem all of Harden's previous playoff failures, (2) prove that Tatum is not a great player, or (3) establish that Mazzulla is in over his head. It is possible that (1) Harden will play a major role in a championship run, (2) Tatum will demonstrate that he just cannot handle big moments, and (3) Mazzulla is not equipped to coach a championship team--but a game whose outcome was not determined until a three pointer was launched a fraction of a second after time expired is a flimsy hook upon which to attempt to support such definitive narratives. Harden has a full body of work to evaluate, Tatum is a young player who has already had many big playoff games and will presumably play in many other playoff games (including at least two more in this series!), and Mazzulla is in the process of completing his first full season at the helm. 

A calm, rational observer understands that the Celtics still have the upper hand in this series by virtue of owning homecourt advantage, so it is too soon to conclude the narrative for this series--never mind writing the definitive evaluation of Harden, Tatum, or Mazzulla (though we do have a full career's worth of data on Harden, as long as he is still an active player he has a chance to alter his story and improve his legacy).

Labels: Boston Celtics, James Harden, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Joel Embiid, Marcus Smart, Philadelphia 76ers

posted by David Friedman @ 1:59 AM

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