2025-26 Western Conference Preview
The Oklahoma City Thunder had a historic 68-14 regular season during which they broke the NBA's record for point differential previously held by the legendary 1972 L.A. Lakers. The Thunder also became the first team to lead the league in fewest turnovers committed and most turnovers forced. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander won his first scoring title (career-high 32.7 ppg), first regular season MVP, first championship, first Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP, and first Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP while earning his third straight All-NBA First Team selection. Gilgeous-Alexander is the first player to win the scoring title, regular season MVP, and NBA Finals MVP in the same season since Shaquille O'Neal (2000), and he is just the fourth player in NBA history to win the scoring title, regular season MVP, and the championship in the same season, joining Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1971), Michael Jordan (1991-92, 1996, 1998), and Shaquille O'Neal (2000); Julius Erving accomplished that triple crown feat twice in the ABA (1974, 1976).
The Thunder enter the 2025-26 season with their entire rotation intact from last season. They have no obvious weaknesses, and it would appear that the only things potentially standing in the way of a Thunder repeat are injuries or complacency.
Last season, the Denver Nuggets tied for the third-fifth best record in the Western Conference, and were slotted into the fourth seed based on tiebreakers. They defeated the L.A. Clippers in seven games in the first round before falling to the powerful Thunder in seven games in the second round. Coach David Adelman, who replaced the fired Michael Malone late in the season, did an excellent job both tactically and in terms of connecting with his players. After losing to the Thunder, the Nuggets traded oft-injured Michael Porter Jr. to the Brooklyn Nets for Cam Johnson, and they also bolstered their depth by acquiring Bruce Brown (who was a member of their 2023 championship team), Tim Hardaway Jr., and Jonas Valanciunas.
Under the coaching of Ime Udoka, the Houston Rockets soared from 22-60 in 2022-23 to 41-41 in Udoka's first season and 52-30 last year. The Rockets led the NBA in rebounding while ranking sixth in both points allowed and defensive field goal percentage; their only weakness was a lack of shooting, which caused the offense to break down, particularly in half court sets. Enter Kevin Durant, who the Rockets acquired from Phoenix in the offseason as part of a seven team deal.
This preview has the same format as my Eastern Conference Preview; the following eight teams are ranked based on their likelihood of making it to the NBA Finals:
1) Oklahoma City Thunder: It is easy and commonplace to overreact after a team wins a championship, and to buy the notion that more championships are sure to follow, even though the NBA has not had a repeat champion since Golden State's Kevin Durant-led super team won in 2017 and 2018. However, there are legitimate reasons to believe that the Thunder have a great chance to not only repeat but to win multiple titles in the next few years: (1) Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a young superstar who plays hard at both ends of the court and he is just entering his prime; (2) the Thunder are elite at both ends of the court; (3) the Thunder are well positioned under the current salary cap rules to keep their core group intact.
Injuries can derail any contender. The Thunder enjoyed excellent health last season, but if that changes then they could fall back. Complacency is another problem that championship teams must battle. The Thunder seem to be focused and hungry, but we won't know for sure until they navigate an entire season as the reigning champion.
Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged at least 30 ppg for three straight seasons, joining a small group of players that includes Giannis Antetokounmpo (2023-25), James Harden (2018-20), Michael Jordan (1987-93), Bob McAdoo (1974-76), Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1971-73), Oscar Robertson (1964-67), and Wilt Chamberlain (1960-66). Gilgeous-Alexander has also posted back to back 25-5-5 seasons, which is one benchmark of all-around greatness.
In general, tanking does not work, and I would push back a bit against anyone who suggests that the Thunder tanked to the top. It is true that the Thunder tanked for two seasons, but before tanking they had already acquired Gilgeous-Alexander in a trade, which means they had their cornerstone player; that approach should be distinguished from the tanking practiced by the Philadelphia 76ers and other teams that stripped down their rosters while hoping to win the NBA Draft Lottery and obtain a franchise player with the number one overall pick. I am not a fan of the tanking that the Thunder did, but there is no denying that it worked, even though it should be emphasized that any team that tanks without already having a player like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is likely to end up in the same sorry state inhabited by the 76ers and other tanking teams.
Jalen Williams--whose draft rights were acquired in the same trade that brought Gilgeous-Alexander to Oklahoma City--set career highs in scoring (21.6 ppg), rebounding (5.3 rpg), assists (5.1 apg), steals (1.6 spg), and blocked shots (.7 bpg) while earning his first All-Star selection, first All-NBA selection (Third Team), and first All-Defensive Team selection (Second Team). He posted similar numbers (21.4 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 4.8 apg, 1.4 spg, .4 bpg) during the Thunder's playoff run, capped off by a 40 point outburst in the Thunder's 120-109 NBA Finals game five win versus the Indiana Pacers. It should be emphasized that the Thunder acquired their two best players via trade, not by tanking.
Two offseason acquisitions paid huge dividends for the Thunder: Isaiah Hartenstein (team-high 10.7 rpg) ensured that the Thunder would no longer be pushed around in the paint, and Alex Caruso provided veteran leadership plus ball-hawking defense.
2) Denver Nuggets: The Nuggets pushed the eventual champion Oklahoma City Thunder to seven games in the second round, and then they improved their roster by acquiring Cam Johnson, Bruce Bowen, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Jonas Valanciunas while only losing Michael Porter Jr. and Russell Westbrook from their core rotation. The Nuggets' added depth should not only help in terms of regular season seeding but also in terms of not losing ground on the scoreboard during the playoffs when Nikola Jokic is on the bench.
Jokic is a generational player who has performed at an MVP-caliber level for the past five seasons, with no end in sight. He won the regular season MVP in 2021, 2022, and 2024, and he finished second in MVP voting in 2023 and 2025. Last season, Jokic averaged a triple double with a career-high 29.6 ppg (third in the league), 12.7 rpg (third in the league), and a career-high 10.2 apg (second in the league). The only other players who have averaged a triple double for a season are Oscar Robertson (1961-62; he also averaged an aggregate triple double for his first five NBA seasons), and Russell Westbrook (2017-19, 21; he averaged an aggregate triple double for the five seasons spanning 2017-21).
Denver's success will depend on Jokic's continued greatness plus the health/availability of Jamal Murray (career-high 21.4 ppg in 67 games last season) and Aaron Gordon (14.7 ppg in 51 games last season), and the effective integration of the newcomers into Denver's offensive and defensive systems--but an injury-depleted Denver team without much bench strength pushed the Thunder to seven games in the playoffs, so a healthy and deeper Denver team should be a legitimate championship contender.
3) Houston Rockets: The Rockets made one of the offseason's biggest moves, acquiring Kevin Durant from the Phoenix Suns as part of a seven team deal in which the Rockets gave up Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, and multiple draft picks (including the 10th overall selection in the 2025 NBA Draft). Durant is 37 years old and six years removed from the right Achilles tendon rupture that knocked him out of the 2019 NBA Finals and cost him the entire 2019-20 season, but he is still a very productive player. Last season, he averaged 26.6 ppg (just a shade under his 27.2 ppg career average) with shooting splits of .527/.430/.839--but he missed 20 games, and his Phoenix Suns did not qualify for the playoffs. Durant's efficient offensive game is just what the offensively challenged Rockets need after finishing 21st in field goal percentage and 21st in three point field goal percentage.
The Rockets' best player last season was versatile young center Alperen Sengun, who earned his first All-Star selection by averaging 19.1 ppg, a career-high 10.3 rpg (ninth in the league), and 4.9 apg. Amen Thompson averaged 14.1 ppg, made the All-Defensive First Team, and finished fifth in Defensive Player of the Year voting.
Starting point guard Fred VanVleet tore his right ACL during a September 2025 workout, and will likely miss the entire 2025-26 season, putting the onus on Thompson and Reed Sheppard to pick up the slack in an already thin backcourt rotation. Thompson worked on his playmaking this summer in anticipation of making greater contributions in that area even before VanVleet got hurt, and now that work will be put to the test. Sheppard only averaged 4.5 ppg and 1.3 apg in 12.5 mpg last season as a rookie, but the Rockets will need more minutes and production from him unless/until they acquire another point guard.
4) Minnesota Timberwolves: Anthony Edwards unleashed his inner Stephen Curry last season, setting career highs in three point field goals made (320, first in the league), three point field goals attempted (811, first in the league), and three point field goal percentage (.395). His evolution into a long range bomber is a missed blessing; there is some value in him being able to stretch the floor, but it would be preferable for the Timberwolves if someone else stretched the floor to enable Edwards to attack the hoop with impunity, because many players can learn to shoot but precious few can finish at the rim the way that Edwards can.
The Timberwolves lost in the Western Conference Finals for the second consecutive season, and for the second consecutive season they fell in just five games. Reaching the Western Conference Finals is no longer enough for this team, and getting routed again is unacceptable, but the sad reality for the Timberwolves and their fans is that the Thunder are still a better team, the Nuggets and Rockets made clear offseason improvements, and the Timberwolves stood pat.
Running it back with a good team is commendable, particularly in an era during which teams often have little patience for development and growth, but the Timberwolves will need a lot of development and growth to surpass the Thunder, Nuggets, and Rockets--and they will have to work hard to stay ahead of several other Western Conference teams as well.
5) Golden State Warriors: The Warriors were 25-26 and going nowhere fast last season before they traded for Jimmy Butler, who became the fastest player in franchise history to amass at least 350 points, at least 100 rebounds, and at least 100 assists, doing so in 21 games. The Warriors finished 48-34, earned the seventh seed by beating the Memphis Grizzlies in the Play-In Tournament, and then upset the Houston Rockets in the first round before losing 4-1 to the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Stephen Curry sustained a series-ending hamstring injury in game one of the Minnesota series. His 24.5 ppg scoring average last season was his lowest full-season scoring average since he scored 23.8 ppg in 2014-15. He has not made the All-NBA First Team since 2021. Curry will be 38 years old by the time the 2026 playoffs begin, and it is fair to wonder how healthy and how productive he can be at this advanced stage of his career; basketball aging is different for agile 6-3 players than it is for big, strong players who can use their height, length, and strength to compensate for diminishing athleticism and quickness.
Butler is an impact player who has a demonstrably limited shelf life; he lifts his teams in the short run, but is rarely happy in the long run. The Warriors have a short timeline with the aging Curry and Draymond Green, so perhaps these "golden guys" can make a deep playoff run, but none of them have reached the NBA Finals since 2023, and two years is a long time for players who are well into their 30s.
The extended Jonathan Kuminga saga highlights the internal instability that has characterized this team for many years; the Warriors finally signed Kuminga, but he is clearly as dissatisfied with the organization as Coach Steve Kerr is with him, so it would not be surprising if the Warriors deal him in a midseason trade. The Warriors' improbable but impressive 2022 championship is a bright spot that makes it easy to overlook the fact that since Kevin Durant left in 2019 the Warriors have missed the playoffs three times and lost in the second round twice.
Championship or bust may be this team's mindset, but second round and sayonara is likely the best case scenario.
6) L.A. Lakers: It will be interesting to see if the LeBron James public relations machine known as ESPN hypes up the Lakers as championship contenders, or if they give James the opportunity for a soft landing by lowering expectations. It is not clear what the Lakers expected when they plucked James from Cleveland in 2018, but it is reasonable to suggest that they expected more than one championship and it is certain that they did not expect to fail to advance past the first round five times in seven years.
After James engineered Anthony Davis' arrival in L.A. in 2019, James and the Lakers thought that they had built a super team that could both win now and be positioned for a promising long-term future with Davis as the centerpiece after James retired. In the wake of the Lakers trading Davis to Dallas for Luka Doncic, we can close the book on the James-Davis era in L.A.: they won the 2020 "bubble title," and after that they had one Western Conference Finals appearance, two first round losses, and one season during which they did not even qualify for the Play-In Tournament.
James claims that he had no idea that the Lakers planned to swap Davis for Doncic, but that is difficult to believe considering that James seems to have a heavy hand in every personnel (and coaching) move that the Lakers have made since he joined the team. Doncic, who earned five straight All-NBA First Team selections before missing the cut in his first season in L.A., led the Mavericks to the 2024 NBA Finals and is a more dynamic offensive weapon than Davis ever was. The Lakers went 18-10 during the regular season with Doncic in the lineup as Doncic became the fastest player in Lakers history to amass at least 700 points, at least 200 rebounds, and at least 200 assists; he averaged 28.2 ppg, 8.1 rpg, and 7.5 apg as a Laker in the regular season, and he averaged 30.2 ppg, 7.0 rpg, and 5.8 apg as the third seeded Lakers lost 4-1 to sixth seeded Minnesota in the first round.
The Mavericks traded Doncic because they were purportedly concerned about his conditioning, and it has been widely reported that during this past summer Doncic trained harder than he ever has to enter this season in the best shape of his life. James is still remarkably productive--averaging 24.4 ppg, 8.2 apg, and 7.8 rpg last season as a 40 year old to earn his 21st All-Star selection and his 21st selection to the All-NBA Team (extending his all-time records in both categories)--but the Lakers are Doncic's team now. This is the first time in James' career that he is clearly not the best player on his own team, and it will be interesting to see how Doncic and James navigate these uncharted waters.
During the Lakers' cameo playoff appearance, the Timberwolves bludgeoned them in the paint, so the Lakers addressed that weakness by signing Deandre Ayton, who was Phoenix' starting center when the Suns reached the 2021 NBA Finals but is viewed as a low motor player despite posting career averages of 16.4 ppg and 10.5 rpg. If Ayton rebounds, defends, and serves as a pick and roll lob threat for Doncic then the Lakers could be quite good, but Ayton has not played in at least 70 games in a season since his 2018-19 rookie campaign, and he played in just 40 games for Portland last season; if Ayton is unavailable or indifferent then the Lakers do not have enough size or defensive presence to match up with the elite teams.
Coach J.J. Redick acts and talks like he has all of the answers, but Redick was often outcoached last season, and before the Lakers acquired Doncic they had a mediocre offense and an atrocious defense. The Lakers improved at both ends of the court down the stretch, but Minnesota's Chris Finch coached circles around Redick in the first round. It is baffling that the Lakers recently extended Redick's contract--which had three years remaining--for an additional two years. James and Redick are friends who used to do a podcast together, so maybe securing a long-term payday for Redick is a gift from James who, presumably, will not be playing five years from now; there is no rational reason to extend Redick other than keeping James happy, and as a result of this decision the Lakers will be paying Redick long after James retires, even if Redick is not coaching the team by that time.
If Doncic and James stay healthy and Ayton stays focused, the Lakers could win 50 games again, but in the tough Western Conference that might not be good enough to claim the third seed again; the Lakers tied for third-fifth in the West with a 50-32 record but received the third seed on tiebreaks, so they could go 50-32 in 2025-26 and end up in the bottom half of the playoff bracket.
The Lakers may have a 10 game winning streak that puts ESPN's perpetual hype machine into overdrive, but when the going gets tough in the playoffs the Lakers will lose in the first round for the third straight year.
7) San Antonio Spurs: There are no more excuses for missing the playoffs. The Spurs have a generational talent--the 2024 NBA Rookie of the Year Victor Wembanyama--plus they have veteran former All-Star guard De'Aaron Fox, and they also have 2025 NBA Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle. I am skeptical about the long term prospects of teams that tanked--and I am not convinced that the Spurs are on a championship track--but the Spurs have too much talent to not at least qualify for the playoffs.
The Spurs face the same challenges that young teams often have to overcome: poor shot selection (the Spurs ranked 17th in field goal percentage), lack of physicality (they ranked 19th in rebounding), and lack of defensive focus (they ranked 23rd in points allowed and 24th in defensive field goal percentage). They are not going to fix all of those problems in one season, but with Wembanyama anchoring the paint defensively and Fox running the show offensively, the Spurs should surpass the 40 win mark for the first time since 2018-19, the last season that they qualified for the playoffs.
8) Dallas Mavericks: Kyrie Irving will miss most if not all of the season after tearing his left ACL late last season, but the cupboard is not bare; the Mavericks have Anthony Davis, the big man duo of Daniel Gafford/Dereck Lively II, and number one overall draft pick Cooper Flagg, who is expected to make an immediate contribution as a scorer, playmaker, and solid defensive player.
Davis had offseason surgery for a detached retina that he suffered last season, but he is not expected to miss any time this season as a result of the procedure. Davis averaged 24.7 ppg, 11.6 rpg, 3.5 apg, and 2.2 bpg last season, but he played in just 51 games; he averaged 20.0 ppg, 10.1 rpg, 4.4 apg, and 2.2 bpg in nine games with the Mavericks after being traded from the Lakers for Luka Doncic.
Daniel Gafford averaged 12.3 ppg, 6.8 rpg, and 1.8 bpg while shooting .702 from the field, but he only played in 57 games. Lively matched Gafford's .702 field goal percentage while producing 8.7 ppg, 7.5 rpg, and 1.6 bpg in 36 games.
All of that big production from the big men in a small number of games added up to a 39-43 record, and a 1-1 showing in the Play-In Tournament, which was not sufficient to qualify for the playoffs.
Klay Thompson will presumably shift from small forward back to his natural shooting guard position to make room in the starting lineup for Flagg. Thompson shot at least .400 from three point range in each of his first eight seasons, but he shot at least .400 from beyond the arc just once in the past four seasons after missing two full seasons due to injury. Last season, he scored 14.0 ppg--his lowest average since his rookie season--with shooting splits of .412/.391/.905.
D'Angelo Russell will run the point until Irving returns. Russell earned his lone All-Star selection in 2019--his fourth NBA season--but Dallas is his fourth team since 2023. In the 2024 playoffs, he scored 23 points in the Lakers' game two loss to Denver, and then scored zero points in the Lakers' game three loss; such wild fluctuations explain both why teams give up on him and why teams give him another chance.
With decent health and a productive Flagg, this team could be good; add Irving to the mix, and this team could be very good--but the sad reality for Mavericks fans is that Davis and Lively will both likely miss extended time due to injuries, Russell is unreliable at best, and it is rare for a rookie to be a significant contributor on a contending team. The only Dallas players who participated in at least 70 games last season are Spencer Dinwiddie--who signed with Charlotte in the offseason--and Thompson.
The teams that finish seventh
through
10th in the regular season standings will participate in the Play-In
Tournament. The above eight teams are the teams that I predict will
qualify for the
playoffs, regardless of what the final regular season standings are.
In 2019, the L.A. Clippers traded Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and a treasure trove of draft picks (one of which became All-Star Jalen Williams) for Paul George; this deal was one of Kawhi Leonard's many preconditions for joining the Clippers. It is a huge understatement to say that the Clippers' plan backfired; while Gilgeous-Alexander is the centerpiece of a potential Thunder dynasty (with Williams as a valuable second option), the Clippers have reached the Western Conference Finals just once in the Leonard era, they have lost in the first round in each of the past three seasons, and the NBA is now investigating possible salary cap circumvention connected with the Leonard signing. Instead of having a young superstar who has not even reached his prime yet, the Clippers have not just the oldest team in the NBA now but the oldest team in NBA history (average age: 33.2 years).
Leonard has played in at least 60 regular season games just once in his six seasons with the Clippers. The Clippers' two big free agent signings are Bradley Beal and Chris Paul. Beal fits right in with Leonard and the Clippers: he has played in at least 60 regular season games once since 2019. Paul has not participated in the playoffs since he averaged 12.4 ppg on .418 field goal shooting while playing in seven of Phoenix' 11 postseason games in 2023, but if the Clippers make the playoffs he will have an opportunity to extend his all-time record of five blown 2-0 series leads. The Clippers will miss the reliable Norm Powell, who they shipped to Miami for John Collins as part of a three team deal.
The Memphis Grizzlies were in second place in the Western Conference before a second half of the season collapse that led to the late season firing of Coach Taylor Jenkins and then (after a first round playoff loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder) the trade of Desmond Bane to the Orlando Magic for Cole Anthony, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and four first round draft picks. The Grizzlies appear to be stuck in the middle as a team that is not contending but also not committed to full scale rebuilding.
The Sacramento Kings fired 2023 NBA Coach of the Year Mike Brown after starting the season 13-18, and they went 27-24 the rest of the way under Doug Christie. During the season, the Kings traded De'Aaron Fox in a three team deal that brought Zach LaVine to Sacramento, reuniting him with his former Chicago teammate DeMar DeRozan. LaVine and DeRozan did not advance past the first round with the Bulls, and this "Chicago West" duo is unlikely to lead the Kings to the 2026 playoffs.
The Portland Trail Blazers traded leading scorer Anfenee Simons (19.3 ppg) to Boston for Jrue Holiday, who has been a great complementary player for championship teams in Milwaukee (2021) and Boston (2024) but is now 35 years old and showing signs of decline at both ends of the court. They also signed prodigal son Damian Lillard, who will likely miss the entire season after suffering a torn left Achilles during the 2025 playoffs while playing for the Milwaukee Bucks, who stretched and waived his contract to clear space to sign Myles Turner. The continued development of Deni Avidja and Toumani Camara are bright spots in an otherwise cloudy picture.
The Phoenix Suns hit the reset button after their "Big Three" of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal failed to deliver a single playoff series win in two seasons, and did not even qualify for postseason play last year. The Suns parted ways with Durant, Beal, Tyus Jones, Jusuf Nurkic, and most of the veterans on the roster except for Booker. Core acquisitions include Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, and Mark Williams, who will be the starting center if he can stay healthy. The Suns also replaced coach Mike Budenholzer with Jordan Ott, who has no NBA head coaching experience. The Suns were wise to break up an expensive team that did not even come close to contending for a championship, but the current roster is unlikely to make the playoffs in the loaded Western Conference.
As has been the case for several seasons, the New Orleans Pelicans' hopes depend on Zion Williamson's health. Williamson has played in 30 games or less four times in six years, including missing the entire 2021-22 season due to injury, so it is reasonable to expect that (1) he will miss a lot of games and (2) the Pelicans will miss the playoffs.
The Utah Jazz pulled an Ace (Ace Bailey) instead of capturing the (Cooper) Flagg in the NBA Draft Lottery, providing yet another example of why tanking generally does not pay off.
**********
Note:
I correctly picked five of the eight 2025 Western Conference playoff teams. Here are my statistics for previous seasons:
2024: 5/8
2023: 6/8
2022: 5/8
2021: 6/8
2020: 6/8
2019: 7/8
2018: 6/8
2017: 7/8
2016: 6/8
2015: 7/8
2014: 6/8
2013: 6/8
2012: 7/8
2011: 5/8
2010: 7/8
2009: 7/8
2008: 7/8
2007: 6/8
2006: 6/8
2006-2024 Total: 123/160 (.769)
Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Golden State Warriors, Houston Rockets, L.A. Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs
posted by David Friedman @ 12:02 PM
