2023-24 NBA Playoff Predictions
For the fourth consecutive season, the NBA used a Play-In Tournament to determine the seventh and eighth seeds in each conference (the NBA also had a Western Conference Play-In Game during the 2020 "bubble" in Orlando). The Philadelphia 76ers and the Miami Heat claimed the final two Eastern Conference playoff spots, while the L.A Lakers and the New Orleans Pelicans earned the final two Western Conference playoff spots. Prior to the 2024 Play-In Tournament, I picked Philadelphia, Miami, the L.A. Lakers, and Golden State to emerge as qualifiers, so now my record for correctly picking the Play-In Tournament qualifiers is 3-1 in 2021, 3-1 in 2022, 2-2 in 2023, and 3-1 in 2024.
Before diving into my playoff predictions, here is a recap of some of the key stories from the 2023-2024 NBA season.
The biggest story of the 2024 NBA season is the extent to which the 64-18 Boston Celtics lapped the field, finishing first in the Eastern Conference by 14 games while also finishing seven games ahead of the top two teams in the Western Conference. The 2015-16 Golden State Warriors--who set an NBA record by going 73-9 in the regular season--finished six games ahead of the San Antonio Spurs in the Western Conference, and 16 games ahead of the East-leading Cleveland Cavaliers, who overcame a 3-1 deficit to beat the Warriors in the NBA Finals. The 1995-96 Chicago Bulls posted a 72-10 record, finishing 12 games ahead of the Orlando Magic in the East and eight games ahead of the West-leading Seattle SuperSonics, who the Bulls defeated 4-2 in the NBA Finals. The 2024 Celtics are a historically great regular season team but--as the 2016 Warriors proved--historical regular season greatness does not guarantee winning a championship.
The Celtics have reached the Eastern Conference Finals five times (2017-18, 2020, 2022-23) in the past seven years but they not won an NBA title since defeating the L.A. Lakers in the 2008 NBA Finals. If the Celtics win the 2024 NBA championship then their 2017-2023 playoff results will be framed as part of their growth process--but if they fall short, then the narrative will be "Boston can't win the big one."
The Celtics ranked second in scoring, second in rebounding, second in three point field goal percentage, second in defensive field goal percentage, fifth in points allowed, and eighth in field goal percentage. Their point differential (11.4 ppg) is 4 ppg better than the second ranked Oklahoma City Thunder, and ranks fifth all-time behind only the 1972 Lakers (12.3), the 1971 Bucks (12.3), the 1996 Bulls (12.2), and the 2017 Warriors (11.6); the four teams ahead of the Celtics each won the NBA title, and two of those teams (Bulls and Warriors) won the NBA title the next year as well. The Celtics led the league in three pointers attempted and in three pointers made, but their love affair with the trey may not be the best thing because heavy reliance on high variance three point shooting can be detrimental. Assuming that the Celtics are not stubborn enough or nervous enough to miss 27 straight three pointers in a playoff game, it will be very difficult to beat them four times in a seven game series.
The Celtics' 2024 regular season dominance has been fueled by the offseason additions of Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis. Holiday--a two-time All-Star and five-time member of the All-Defensive Team--played a key role for Milwaukee's 2021 championship team, and one wonders if the Bucks would have traded Holiday to Portland for Damian Lillard if they had known that Holiday would ultimately end up in Boston. One-time All-Star Porzingis impacts the game as a three level scorer, a rebounder, and a rim protector. Boston's starting five of MVP candidate Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Kristaps Porzingis, Jrue Holiday, and Derrick White is the best quintet in the league.
While the Celtics sailed smoothly through the regular season, their historic rival in the West had a much bumpier ride. For the fourth year in a row, LeBron James and Anthony Davis failed to lead the L.A. Lakers to one of the top six seeds in the Western Conference. This season, the Lakers posted a 47-35 regular season record overall, including a 6-5 record without James; they posted a 2-4 record without Davis.
In my 2023 Playoff Preview, I looked back at the Lakers' performance in the 2021-23 seasons, and that analysis is relevant to the 2024 season as well:
In 2021, the Lakers only reached the playoffs via the Play-In Tournament, while in 2022 the Lakers failed to even qualify for the Play-In Tournament. In 2023, James put up impressive individual numbers (28.9 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 6.8 apg), and he broke Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's career regular season scoring record, but the Lakers were 30-25 when he played, which projects to just under 45 wins over an 82 game season: the point is that even with James on the court the Lakers did not look like a championship caliber team. The Lakers went 13-14 when James did not play, which projects to nearly 40 wins over an 82 game season. Thus, in the 2023 season James was worth about five "extra" wins, which is not the impact that one would expect from an MVP caliber player averaging nearly 30 ppg; historically, an MVP caliber player is worth at least 15 "extra" wins.
Perhaps one reason that James' gaudy numbers did not correlate with team success is that James may be better than any other great player at stat padding. While it is true that James has proven capable of posting great individual numbers that correlate with team success--that is why he has won four championships--it is also true that he has an uncanny ability to post superficially impressive numbers that do not correlate with team success, and the 2023 season is a prime example of that.
This season, the Lakers beat the powerful Celtics in Boston without both James and Davis, and after that game I explained why James' gaudy individual numbers are deceptive:
The reality--and this is something that I have written about throughout James' stellar career--is that James often plays in a way that maximizes his personal statistics but does not necessarily maximize his team's winning chances. On the surface, that may seem like nonsensical "hate." I am not ignoring the indisputable facts that (1) James has been the best player on four championship teams and (2) James has authored some incredibly clutch playoff performances. There is no doubt that James has had a major impact on winning for each of the three franchises that employed him, as reflected by the fact that he led each franchise to at least one championship. Nevertheless, one cannot escape the impression that James is very conscious of his statistics and of how to shape narratives. Sometimes, he puts up big numbers after the outcome is no longer in doubt; always, he controls the ball and decides who will shoot the ball, which means he controls his points, his assists, and everyone's field goal percentage...
In short, James' talent often lifts his teams, but it also can suffocate his teammates. The Lakers played free and loose without James controlling the ball, and several players showed that they are capable of creating their own shots and playing solid defense. Does that mean the Lakers are better without James? Of course not. Those players are not conditioned mentally or physically to play that way for 82 games. However, the Lakers would benefit if James consistently played in a way that focused less on narrative and more on team success.
There are good reasons that many objective observers who understand the sport do not rank James ahead of Kobe Bryant, let alone Michael Jordan. James is one of the 10 greatest players of all-time, but the notion that he is "The Greatest" is largely a product of a public relations narrative that he has skillfully crafted with the help of media members whose careers have prospered largely because of their willingness to put forth that narrative; if you have followed the NBA for the past 20 years or so, then you know which reporters are providing most of the "scoops" about James, and you know that they are the same reporters who slavishly push the "LeBron is the GOAT" narrative.
There are limits to how much attention even James can garner during a season when his team struggled to stay in the top 10 in the 15 team West. The player who received the most attention this season was number one overall draft pick Victor Wembanyama, who averaged 21.4 ppg, 10.6 rpg, 3.9 apg, and 3.6 bpg. He led the league in blocked shots, ranked eighth in rebounding, joined the 5x5 Club, and fell just short of joining the 100/100 Club. Despite Wembanyama's productivity, the Spurs matched their anemic win total from the 2023 season (22).
The Spurs tanked in order to increase their odds of being able to draft Wembanyama, so there is a delicious irony that their attempt to "tank to the top"--which has not worked for the 76ers or for any other team that has tanked in the past 40-plus years--did not result in even one more win. Most great players who eventually led their teams to titles proved to be worth 10, 15, or even 20-plus wins during their rookie seasons, so it will be interesting to see how many games the Spurs win in the next few seasons. Based on the history of NBA tanking, there is a strong probability that Wembanyama will either never lead a team to a title, or that he will win a title with a team other than the Spurs (most likely a team that has built a championship culture and then adds him as the final piece). I don't doubt that Gregg Popovich is an excellent coach, but it is fair to say that the post-Tim Duncan/Kawhi Leonard years have not added anything to his legacy.
Speaking of bad teams, the Detroit Pistons posted a league-worst 14-68 record, including an NBA-record 28 game losing streak. Call it the "Curse of Rodney Stuckey": Joe Dumars had a peculiar fascination with Stuckey, and the Pistons' descent into irrelevance can be directly linked to that obsession, because Dumars ran off three All-Star guards (Chauncey Billups, Richard Hamilton, Allen Iverson) without getting much in return in order to hand the keys of the car to Stuckey, who promptly drove the team into last place. The Pistons have reached the playoffs just twice since 2009, and have not won a playoff series since 2008.
Although the Pistons are currently the worst of the worst, the NBA has more awful teams than usual, with six teams winning 25 games or less last season. A combination of tanking and talent dilution has made one fifth of the league an unwatchable mess while also inflating the win totals of the teams that are not awful. Maybe the 2024 playoffs will change my opinion, but right now I would not compare the 64 win Celtics with the teams from the 1980s and 1990s that won 64 or more games. The 2024 Celtics padded their win total by posting a 16-1 record versus the bottom six teams (Charlotte, Detroit, Portland, San Antonio, Toronto, Washington).
Turning our attention from the ridiculous to the sublime, the regular season MVP debate/discussion tends to generate more heat than light.
I have consistently stated that the MVP should go to the best all-around player in the league,
with the only exception being if there is a dominant big man who is
having the most impact even though he is not the best all-around player
(for example, Shaquille O'Neal deserved several MVP awards based on his
dominance, even though he was not the best all-around player).
The historical standard is that an NBA regular season MVP must play in at least 85% of the scheduled games, which adds up to at least 70 games in the traditional 82 game season. The 2023-24 season is the first season for which the NBA's Collective Bargaining Agreement has required that players participate in at least 65 games to be eligible to win various awards, including regular season MVP.
The consensus top five players this season (listed in alphabetical order, along with a blurb summarizing each player's candidacy) are Luka Doncic (scoring champion who nearly averaged a triple double), Anthony Edwards (explosive athlete/two-way player who kept Minnesota in contention even after Karl Anthony-Towns' injury), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (elite two-way player for West's number one seeded team), Nikola Jokic (led NBA with 29 triple doubles, nearly averaged a triple double), and Jayson Tatum (best player on the team with the best record). Two other players who are having MVP-caliber seasons statistically but may not finish in the top five are Jalen Brunson, whose big-time scoring exploits powered the Knicks to the second seed in the East, and Giannis Antetokounmpo, who ranked in the top 10 in scoring, rebounding, and field goal percentage.
For several years, I felt that Antetokounmpo was the best all-around player in the NBA, but I am not convinced that he is now the best all-around player or the most valuable. His defense is not as good as it used to be, and he also bears a lot of responsibility for how much the Bucks have fallen off since he led them to the 2021 championship: he was injured during the Bucks' first round loss as a number one seed last year, he will be limited by injury (if he can play at all) during the Bucks' first round series this year, and he no doubt played a significant role in the decisions to fire Coach Mike Budenholzer, trade Jrue Holiday for Damian Lillard, hire Coach Adrian Griffin, and replace Griffin with Doc Rivers. In short, Antetokounmpo is no longer as well-rounded or reliable as he used to be, and it could be strongly argued that he has played a role in pushing the franchise in the wrong direction. He still deserves full credit for leading the Bucks to a championship--something that no MVP candidate this year other than Jokic has done--and he still deserves respect for how hard he plays, but he did do enough to earn a first place MVP vote this year.
I love the way that Brunson plays and I love his attitude/demeanor, but I am skeptical of the MVP candidacy of any player who is shorter than 6-5, because history has proven that--with very few exceptions--such players simply do not exert the dominant impact that their bigger peers do. If I can't see a player being the best player on a championship team then I have a hard time ranking that player as the regular season MVP. Now that the NBA has reinstated positional voting for the All-NBA Teams, I don't even see Brunson as an All-NBA First Team member, because those slots should go to Doncic and Gilgeous-Alexander this year--and a good case could be made for Edwards over Brunson as well, but I would choose both Brunson and Edwards as the All-NBA Second Team guards this season.
Tatum's overall numbers this season are similar to his overall numbers when he finished sixth in MVP voting in 2022 and fourth in MVP voting in 2023. A top five finish feels about right for him; he did not magically become the league's best player just because his team acquired two All-Star caliber players and posted the league's best record.
Edwards posted career-highs in scoring (25.9 ppg), assists (5.1 apg), and field goal percentage (.461). He has tremendous athletic gifts and could very well be a future MVP, but the commentators who are comparing him to Michael Jordan and anointing him as this year's MVP need to pump the brakes; he deserves to make the All-NBA Second Team for the first time, and we can leave it at that for now.
Gilgeous-Alexander finished fifth in MVP voting last year, and he posted comparable overall numbers this year--but the big difference is that he posted those numbers this year while leading a young team to the top seed in the Western Conference. Yes, like Tatum he benefited from his team acquiring good players--but Tatum's Celtics added All-Star veterans while the Thunder added unproven young players. I understand why Gilgeous-Alexander is going to get a lot of first place votes, but I am not yet convinced that he is better or more impactful than Doncic or Jokic.
Doncic won his first scoring title (career-high 33.9 ppg) while also ranking second in assists (career-high 9.8 apg) and averaging 9.2 rpg. Even in today's defense-optional era, those numbers are impressive. Doncic owns the second highest career playoff scoring average (32.5 ppg), and his playoff averages in other categories are comparable to his regular season averages, so he has demonstrated that the bright lights don't dim his game. His defense has evolved from terrible to no worse than solid. I rank Doncic second in this year's MVP race.
Last season, I thought that Jokic should have been selected as the
regular season MVP. His dominant postseason performance--culminating in Denver's first NBA title and Jokic's first NBA Finals MVP--cemented his status as the league's best player, and Jokic added to his lengthy resume with an outstanding 2023-24 campaign: 26.4 ppg (10th in the league), 12.4 rpg (fourth in the league), 9.0 apg (third in the league), and .583 FG% (10th in the league). Jokic is not a big-time shotblocker or a defensive stopper, but he led the Nuggets in mpg (34.6) while the Nuggets ranked fourth in defensive field goal percentage and sixth in points allowed. It is well-documented that the Nuggets play at an elite level when he is on the court and often struggle during his off-court minutes, so the numbers (and eye test) do not support the notion that he is a defensive liability. I would select Jokic as the 2024 regular season MVP, and I also expect that the official voters will select him as well.
One of the under the radar stories is that Jokic's Denver Nuggets avoided the championship hangover that affects many teams. They improved their regular season win total from 53 to 57 and they went 2-0 versus the Celtics. It is difficult to win back to back titles--the last team to do this was the Kevin Durant-led 2017-2018 Golden State Warriors--but the Nuggets have put themselves in good position to win a second title, and they have no reason to fear any team in the 2024 playoff field.
Here are my first round predictions:
Eastern Conference
#1 Boston (64-18) versus #8 Miami (46-36)
As discussed above, the Celtics were head and shoulders above the rest of the league this season, and on paper they look like one of the greatest teams of all-time. They are big and versatile, and they are deep enough, particularly considering that they have the league's best starting five. The only concerns are (1) they may be too reliant on three point shooting, and (2) in recent years they have had excellent regular seasons only to short circuit in the playoffs. Those concerns are unlikely to become serious considerations until at least the Eastern Conference Finals.
The 2024 Miami Heat are not the 2023 Miami Heat; this year's Heat have an anemic offense that will be even worse in the playoffs without the injured Jimmy Butler. Side note: the Heat's 112-91 rout of the Chicago Bulls sans Butler on Friday night after the Bulls defeated the Atlanta Hawks 131-116 in the Play-In Tournament demonstrates just how bad the Trae Young-led Hawks are.
The Celtics no doubt cannot wait to avenge last year's embarrassing playoff loss to the Heat, and the Heat do not have enough weapons to combat the powerful Celtics. Boston will win in four games.
#2 New York (50-32) versus #7 Philadelphia (47-35)
Jalen Brunson (career-high 28.7 ppg, career-high 6.7 apg) had an All-NBA caliber season and clearly established himself as the Knicks' best player even before Julius Randle suffered a season-ending shoulder injury. Before this season began, no one would have predicted that the Knicks would have finished second in the East even with a fully healthy roster, so Brunson deserves a lot of credit for leading the Knicks to a second place finish despite the Randle injury (and injuries to Mitchell Robinson and OG Anunoby as well).
The Knicks ranked second in the league in points allowed but that is a little deceptive because of their methodical pace (they ranked 19th in scoring). They ranked just 15th in defensive field goal percentage, at least in part because they lack shot blocking (ranking 29th in that category).
The notion that Tom Thibodeau exhausts/wears down his players by playing them for too many minutes is not supported by the numbers, at least this year. No Knick averaged more than 35.5 mpg, and only four Knicks averaged more than 30 mpg. Brunson ranked 14th in the league in mpg (35.4), and the next Knick among qualifiers for league leaders in mpg ranked 37th (Josh Hart, 33.4 mpg). Randle averaged 35.4 mpg in 46 games, which is hardly an outlandish workload.
The 76ers' gaudy record with Joel Embiid in the lineup this season is not relevant, because Embiid has been clearly limited since his return from knee surgery; he is still capable of putting up solid numbers, but he lacks his normal explosiveness and power, and he is not in top physical condition. Embiid also has a history of playoff underperformance.
Trading disgruntled playoff choker James Harden to the L.A. Clippers gave Tyrese Maxey the opportunity to become a first-time All-Star, but Embiid at 75-80% plus young Maxey and a solid supporting cast is not enough to take down this gritty New York team led by Brunson. New York will win in six games.
#3 Milwaukee (49-33) versus #6 Indiana (47-35)
The Bucks have had an odd and disappointing season, but if Giannis Antetokounmpo had not suffered a knee injury that kept him out of the final three games of the season they still may have earned the East's second seed. Slipping to third would not necessarily have been fatal if Antetokounmpo made a full and quick recovery, but current reports indicate that he will miss at least the start of this series, which also suggests that even if he returns he will be operating at less than 100%. The Pacers have been a tough matchup for the Bucks even when the Bucks were at full strength, so with Antetokounmpo sidelined the Pacers have to be considered the favorites. The Pacers won the season series 4-1, and the Bucks needed a career-high 64 point performance from Antetokounmpo to avoid the 5-0 sweep.
It is not surprising that Damian Lillard's scoring declined by nearly 8 ppg after joining forces with Antetokounmpo, but it is concerning that his field goal percentage dropped from .463 to .424. One would have hoped that Lillard's shot selection and shooting percentage would improve with the opportunity to play with better players, but that has not been the case. Even more concerning than Lillard's declining offensive efficiency is that adding Lillard and subtracting Jrue Holiday has made the Bucks' perimeter defense atrocious: every guard looks at a matchup with the Bucks as a license to score with impunity. The Pacers' Tyrese Haliburton had an excellent season (20.1 ppg, league-leading 10.9 apg), but when he played against the Bucks he took his game to another level by averaging 27.0 ppg and 11.0 apg with shooting splits of .532/.375/.909.
The Pacers are a lousy defensive team--ranking 27th in points allowed and 30th in defensive field goal percentage--but without Antetokounmpo the Bucks may not be able to exploit the gaping holes in the Pacers' defense. Meanwhile, the Bucks had no answers this season for the Pacers' league-leading offense (123.3 ppg). It would not be shocking to see the Pacers score 140 points in a game versus the Bucks; they beat the Bucks 142-130 in their final meeting this season despite Antetokounmpo, Lillard, and Khris Middleton each playing at least 32 minutes for the Bucks (something that rarely happened this season). I would not generally pick a lower seeded team that is horrible defensively but, for the reasons listed above, I predict that Indiana will win in six games.
#4 Cleveland (48-34) versus #5 Orlando (47-35)
Disgracefully, the Cavaliers tanked versus the Charlotte Hornets in the fourth quarter of the final game of the regular season in order to drop into this matchup--but the basketball gods may enact karmic retribution against the Cavaliers, who struggled with New York's physicality during the first round of the 2023 playoffs and will now have to contend with an Orlando defense that ranked fourth in the league in points allowed and fifth in steals.
Paolo Banchero won the 2023 Rookie of the Year award, and in 2024 he earned his first All-Star selection by averaging 22.6 ppg, 6.9 rpg, and 5.4 apg. Seven Magic players averaged at least 21 mpg, and six of those players are 25 or younger. Gary Harris is the "old man" of that group at 29.
The Magic lack playoff experience, but most of the Cavaliers' players do not have much playoff experience, either. Cleveland's leading scorer Donovan Mitchell (26.6 ppg) has had some sensational playoff games, and he led the NBA in playoff scoring average (36.3 ppg) in 2020, but he missed 27 games this season and has not looked quite like his normal self since returning after suffering a knee injury.
Cleveland ranked sixth in defensive field goal percentage and seventh in points allowed, but last season their defense was even better than that statistically before crumbling versus the Knicks. There is good reason to be skeptical about the Cavaliers' playoff chances until they prove otherwise by winning a series. I don't like the way that Cleveland intentionally backed into this matchup, but despite the misgivings noted above I predict that Cleveland will win in six games.
Western Conference
#1 Oklahoma City (57-25) versus #8 New Orleans (49-33)
It is well-documented that I oppose tanking because it violates the spirit of competition/rips off the paying fans. It is also well-documented that tanking does not work. The Thunder tanked for multiple seasons to build their current roster, so I feel strongly that what they did is not only bad for the sport but unlikely to lead to long-term success. That being said, the Thunder have been much better this season than I expected, and they are an excellent defensive team (ranking third in defensive field goal percentage), which is unusual for a young team that presumably has not yet developed a winning culture.
Six Thunder players averaged at least 20 mpg, and each of those players is 25 or younger. The grizzled veteran of that quintet, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, will not turn 26 until July and he has already established himself as a legit MVP candidate who plays hard at both ends of the court. He led the Thunder in scoring (30.1 ppg), assists (6.2 apg), and steals (2.0 spg).
Other than lack of experience, the Thunder's main weakness is rebounding (27th in the league). They may struggle in a seven game playoff series versus strong, physical teams, but their youth and athleticism can compensate to some extent.
The Pelicans lost to the L.A. Lakers in the Play-In Tournament but punched their ticket to the playoffs by beating the Sacramento Kings, 105-98. At 49-33, the Pelicans are one of the winningest eighth seeds of all-time, but they will be without the services of leading scorer (22.9 ppg) Zion Williamson for at least several weeks after Williamson injured his knee versus the Lakers. The scrappy Pelicans will post a good challenge for the inexperienced Thunder, but Oklahoma City will win in six games.
#2 Denver (57-25) versus #7 L.A. Lakers (47-35)
The Nuggets started the season 8-1, never lost more than three games in a row all season, and were consistently at or near the top of the Western Conference standings before finishing in a tie with the Thunder and landing in second place due to tiebreaks. Nikola Jokic had yet another MVP caliber campaign (as discussed above), and Jamal Murray played at an All-Star level (21.2 ppg, 6.5 apg) despite missing 23 games. Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope round out an imposing starting lineup that has an excellent blend of size, speed, athleticism, and shooting. The only other starting lineup in the league that can be compared to Denver's is Boston's. The Nuggets do not have great depth, but they won the 2023 title without having great depth, and in the playoffs depth is not as important as it is during the regular season as long as a team avoids injuries and major foul trouble.
The Nuggets own the Lakers, sweeping them in the 2023 Western Conference Finals and sweeping them 3-0 during the 2024 regular season. The Lakers shipped off their scapegoats (Russell Westbrook and Frank Vogel) and are still mired in mediocrity, consistently failing to finish in the top six in the West. All of the talk about how important it is to surround LeBron James with shooters ignores the fact that the Lakers finished eight out of 15 teams in the Western Conference standings despite ranking second in field goal percentage, sixth in scoring, and eighth in three point field goal percentage; the Lakers won the 2020 "bubble" title by attacking the paint on offense and defending the paint on defense, but this year's Lakers ranked 17th in defensive field goal percentage and 23rd in points allowed. The 2020 Lakers ranked fourth in points allowed, eighth in defensive field goal percentage--and 21st in three point field goal percentage, a statistic that has little correlation with the Lakers' success during the LeBron James era.
We have seen nothing from either the Nuggets or the Lakers to indicate that the Lakers can beat the Nuggets four times in seven games. It is difficult to sweep anyone in the NBA playoffs, so even though the Nuggets swept the Lakers last year I predict that this year Denver will win in five games.
#3 Minnesota (56-26) versus #6 Phoenix (49-33)
For the past few years, TNT's Charles Barkley has called the Timberwolves "dumb as rocks" because of their frequent late game meltdowns, but this season the Timberwolves consistently played at an elite level, and they led the league in both points allowed and defensive field goal percentage. Many commentators scoffed at the twin towers pairing of Rudy Gobert with Karl-Anthony Towns, but the reality is that size has always mattered in basketball and it still matters now. The Nuggets bludgeon opponents with their size, and the Timberwolves' roster was built by the same executive--Tim Connelly--who built the Nuggets' championship roster before moving to Minnesota.
Anthony Edwards is in the MVP conversation. Karl-Anthony Towns is the second option on offense, and he played well before suffering a knee injury but he looked rusty when he returned for the final two regular season games, including a 125-106 loss to the Suns on April 14. The Timberwolves ranked just 18th in scoring, so it is important for Towns to be at or near full strength.
The Suns represent Kevin Durant's latest attempt to build or join a "super team." He won two NBA titles and two NBA Finals MVPs after fleeing Oklahoma City to join a Golden State team that had already won an NBA championship; then Durant, Kyrie Irving, and James Harden joined forces in Brooklyn, and now Durant goes into battle alongside Devin Booker and Bradley Beal. Despite all of that star power, the Suns needed a tiebreaker to finish ahead of New Orleans and avoid falling into the Play-In Tournament. They have been inconsistent and injury-prone throughout the season. Could they put it all together and win a playoff series? Sure, that is possible, but I predict that Minnesota will win in six games.
#4 L.A. Clippers (51-31) versus #5 Dallas (50-32)
Luka Doncic had another MVP-caliber season, and sidekick Kyrie Irving not only played better than he did last season but he was available for more games and he meshed better with Doncic. Doncic has torched the Clippers in two playoff series (31.0 ppg, 9.8 rpg, 8.7 apg in 2020; 35.7 ppg, 7.9 rpg, 10.3 apg in 2021), although the Clippers beat the Mavericks in six games in 2020 and in seven games in 2021. The Mavericks greatly benefited from the midseason acquisitions of Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington.
Kawhi Leonard is a two-time NBA Finals MVP (2014, 2019), and if he is healthy and dominant then the Clippers could beat anyone in a playoff series--but Leonard has not played all of the games in a playoff series that his team won since the first round of the 2021 playoffs.
Russell Westbrook's energy and unselfishness have been very important for the Clippers. Last season, he averaged 15.8 ppg, 7.6 apg, and 4.9 rpg in 21 games as the Clippers' starting point guard. He played well as the Clippers' starting point guard at the beginning of this season before graciously volunteering to accept a reserve role after the Clippers acquired James Harden.
Beyond Leonard and Westbrook, there is little reason to trust the Clippers in a playoff series. There is a strong argument that Harden is the the most overrated MVP ever based on his annual playoff "concert tour" field goal percentages and his propensity for having more turnovers than field goals made in playoff games, a statistic that should be called a "Harden" after he did it three times during Philadelphia's seven game loss to Boston in last year's playoffs. Paul George dubbed himself "Playoff P," but his postseason resume is checkered, including three Conference Finals appearances but also a field goal percentage below .420 in nine of his 18 playoff series.
If Leonard goes into "cyborg" mode then his greatness can offset Harden being Harden and George's fluctuating playoff field goal percentages, but I predict
that Dallas will win in six games.
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Thus, I expect the second round matchups to be Boston-Cleveland, New York-Indiana, Oklahoma City-Dallas, and Denver-Minnesota.
I am not 100% convinced that Cleveland will beat Orlando, and I have no confidence that Cleveland can beat Boston barring extreme and unusual circumstances. The Celtics are a championship caliber team vying to establish their credentials as an all-time great team (if their 2024 playoff run matches their 2024 regular season excellence and culminates in winning a championship), while the Cavaliers are a solid playoff team at best. The Celtics will win in five games.
New York is a physical, defensive-minded team while Indiana is a run and gun team. The playoffs generally favor physicality and defense, so I pick New York to win in six games.
Young teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder rarely reach the Conference Finals during their first playoff run. Luka Doncic led Dallas to the 2022 Western Conference Finals, and Dallas' second option Kyrie Irving was very effective in a second option role for the 2016 NBA champion Cleveland Cavaliers. I think that the playoff experience of Doncic and Irving will matter in this matchup, so I predict that Dallas will win a tough six game series.
Denver is too big, too strong, and too smart for Minnesota, so I am taking Denver in five games.
Reaching the Eastern Conference Finals is old hat for Boston, but New York has not played in the Eastern Conference Finals since 2000. Boston has too much talent and too many matchup advantages, so I pick Boston to win in six games.
As much as Dallas improved after making their key midseason acquisitions, Denver is still too big and too talented. Denver will beat Dallas in six games in the Western Conference Finals.
The NBA Finals will feature Denver going for a repeat and Boston going for redemption after falling just short of gold so many times in the past few years. Boston has homecourt advantage and more overall talent, but Denver has Jokic, and it is becoming apparent that in this era having Jokic is the biggest advantage because of his triple impact as a scorer, rebounder, and passer. I see this series going the distance, with Jokic producing a triple double on the road as Denver obtains a hard-earned repeat championship.
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Here is a summary of the results of my previous predictions both for playoff qualifiers and for the outcomes of playoff series:
In my 2023-2024 Eastern Conference Preview I correctly picked seven of this season's eight playoff teams and I went five for eight in my 2023-2024 Western Conference Preview. Here are my statistics for previous seasons:
2023: East 7/8, West 6/8
2022: East 7/8, West 5/8
2021: East 6/8, West 6/8
2020: East 7/8, West 6/8
2019: East 6/8, West 7/8
2018: East 6/8, West 6/8
2017: East 5/8, West 7/8
2016: East 5/8, West 6/8
2015: East 5/8, West 7/8
2014: East 6/8, West 6/8
2013: East 7/8, West 6/8
2012: East 8/8, West 7/8
2011: East 5/8, West 5/8
2010: East 6/8, West 7/8
2009: East 6/8, West 7/8
2008: East 5/8, West 7/8
2007: East 7/8, West 6/8
2006: East 6/8, West 6/8
That adds up to 117/152 in the East and 118/152 in the West for an overall accuracy rate of .773.
Here is my record in terms of picking the results of playoff series:
2022: 8/15
2021: 9/15
2020: 10/15
2019: 10/15
2018: 11/15
2017: 14/15
2016: 12/15
2015: 10/15
2014: 13/15
2013: 14/15
2012: 11/15
2011: 10/15
2010: 10/15
2009: 10/15
2008: 12/15
2007: 12/15
2006: 10/15
2005: 9/15
Total: 204/285 (.716)
At the end of each of my playoff previews I predict which teams will make it to the NBA Finals; in the past 19 years I have correctly picked 19 of the 38 NBA Finals participants. In five of those 19 years (including 2016 and 2017) I got both teams right and twice I got both teams right and predicted the correct result (2007, 2017). I correctly picked the NBA Champion before the playoffs began five times: 2007, 2013, 2017, 2018, 2021.
I track these results separately from the series by series predictions because a lot can change from the start of the playoffs to the NBA Finals, so my prediction right before the NBA Finals may differ from what I predicted when the playoffs began.
Labels: Boston Celtics, Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Jalen Brunson, Jayson Tatum, Luka Doncic, New York Knicks, Nikola Jokic
posted by David Friedman @ 1:31 AM
