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Thursday, December 10, 2020

Remembering Eugene "Goo" Kennedy, 1949-2020

I was saddened to learn today that Eugene "Goo" Kennedy recently passed away. I first met Kennedy at the 2005 ABA Reunion, held in Denver during the NBA All-Star Weekend. Kennedy and several other ABA veterans immediately made me feel welcome after I introduced myself, and the time that I spent with them will forever be one of the highlights of my writing career. Players of his generation are around my parents' age, and those are the players who were in their primes when I was a child first learning about basketball. It is sobering to see an increasing number of people from that generation passing away.

Kennedy was not a star player in the professional ranks, but he starred at Texas Christian University, winning the team MVP and the Southwest Conference Player of the Year award for the 1970-71 season after averaging 20.4 ppg and 16.6 rpg while leading the squad to an NCAA Tournament berth. 

Kennedy averaged 8.2 ppg and 5.6 rpg during his five year professional career, spending his first four seasons in the ABA before finishing his career with the Houston Rockets in 1976-77, the first season after the ABA-NBA merger.

His life--any life--adds up to so much more than just numbers or statistics or accolades. Kennedy spent his post-playing career devoted to education and to helping at-risk kids, and he also raised several foster kids with his wife Mary.

During the 2005 ABA Reunion, I did a one on one interview with Kennedy. I was working on several stories about the ABA and pro basketball history. Looking back through my interview archives, I realize that my interview with Kennedy has never been published, nor did the quotes from that interview appear in subsequent articles. Here is an excerpt from that February 18, 2005 interview:

Friedman: "I'm doing an article about James Silas, who has that great nickname--'Captain Late.' What do you remember about playing with him as a teammate? What made him so special as an offensive player that people really didn't get to see in the NBA after the knee injury?"

Kennedy: "I called him 'Si-Lee.' I remember when he came in as a rookie. He was very quiet, wouldn't say anything."

Friedman: "Really?"

Kennedy: "Yeah. He was very quiet."

Friedman: "He seems talkative now."

Kennedy: "Very quiet. We became very close. We always talked with each other, even when we were with other teams. He's just an all-around good guy."

Friedman: "There was camaraderie in the ABA, even if you were on different teams everyone seemed to really have an 'all for one, one for all' mentality."

Kennedy: "When Fatty [Roland 'Fatty' Taylor, organizer of the 2005 and 2006 ABA Reunions] started getting this (ABA Reunion) together, we said, 'All right, let's get together.' We started talking to other people who Fatty couldn't get in contact with, so we spread the word and it worked well."

Friedman: "What's your favorite memory from your playing days?"

Kennedy: "My rookie year, first coming in and seeing all these guys with gray hair--the veterans. "

Friedman: "You felt like you knew you had a shot, that some of those older guys were on their way out--is that what you were thinking?"

Kennedy: "No, no, no. I'm thinking, 'What am I to do?' You know some of the guys that you meet because you played with them in college, but you didn't know them that well. When I first came in I knew Collis Jones. We were very close because we had played against each other, he at Notre Dame and myself at Texas Christian University. So we hit it off very well and have been together ever since. When I came in he was the number one draft choice [17th pick overall in the 1971 NBA Draft, selected by the Milwaukee Bucks]."

Friedman: "Collis was with the Chaparrals?"

Kennedy: "With the Chaparrals and in the NBA. He decided to come to Dallas. It was tough, it wasn't easy."

Friedman: "What's your best memory of Julius Erving, the best move that you saw him do? I know that everyone says that his best moves aren't on tape, that they happened in the ABA and were not filmed."

Kennedy: "We all came in at the same time. He was a rookie when I was a rookie. In the ABA, Doc went to a lot of cities that did not televise the games nationally. They were only shown in that town. A lot of people did not see him in his prime. They missed it all. He would come into town and people did not know who Dr. J was. They missed a great opportunity."

Friedman: "Also, he came out of a small, unheralded schoo1."

Kennedy: "UMASS."

Friedman: "Right. He came from a small school into a league that was, undeservedly, given second class status in terms of television coverage."

Kennedy: "Right. The ABA was a great league with great players. Look at after the league folded how many guys went into the NBA from the ABA"

Friedman: "Many of the All-NBA guys for the next several years--Erving, Thompson, Gervin, Moses, Maurice Lucas--"

Kennedy: "Moses and I played together at Utah in the ABA and then we played together in Houston."

Friedman: "What did you think of Moses when you first saw him come out of high school at about 210 pounds?"

Kennedy: "Skinny kid who had so much ability."

Friedman: "You could see it even when he was that young?"

Kennedy: "Yeah and everybody was determined to beat up on him. You could beat up on him and it didn't make any difference. Moses was a quick jumper. He could go down and go back up, go down and go back up. For his size, he was unbelievable. He was young, but he could play."

Friedman: "He developed some offensive moves a little later on, but when you were roommates he was mainly scoring off of offensive rebounds, right?"

Kennedy: "Rebounds and put backs. Then he worked on his little turn around jump shot and taking the ball to the basket. He was just a great all around player and a good guy."

Friedman: "What do you remember of Marvin Barnes, another guy who was a great offensive rebounder?"

Kennedy: "Speaking of Marvin, I was just talking to him out there. We played together in St. Louis--Marvin Barnes, Maurice Lucas, Joe Caldwell, Steve Jones, Fly Williams, Gus Gerard. We had a really good team."

Friedman: "What do you remember of the 1975 ABA playoffs? The Nets were the defending champions and had beaten you something like 13 straight times."

Kennedy: "They had beaten us, but during that playoff we were on a roll. We had come together as a team."

Friedman: "What changed?"

Kennedy: "Everybody started to get to know everybody. Everybody felt real comfortable about what was going on and got to know the system. Everybody liked everybody. We had fun doing it."

Friedman: "For those first couple years, Marvin was an incredible player. He was putting up 25 and 15."

Kennedy: "Marvin was a great offensive rebounder, great defender. He could handle the ball, he could shoot the ball--he could do it all. He had so much ability it was unbelievable."

Friedman: "Did you ever read the book by (David) Halberstam, The Breaks of the Game? Steve Jones was interviewed in that book and he talked about Marvin Barnes. That was the first time I ever read about or heard about Marvin Barnes. That book came out a long time ago, like 25 years ago--I read it as a kid."

Kennedy: "Marvin was the type of guy who did what he wanted to do. He didn't think about what would happen. He just did it and then thought about it afterwards. He's a fun guy, he's a neat guy. He always wants to help somebody."

Friedman: "He has a good heart."

Kennedy: "Good heart, good, tender heart."

Friedman: "After you guys beat the Nets, then you played the Colonels and that's when Freddie Lewis got injured, right?"

Kennedy: "I think that it was an old knee injury from when he played with Indiana. When he went down, he was our main point guard. He was at the top of his game that year. He was scoring, playing good 'D' and running the team. We had other good quality guards, but when he went down it was not the same as having him out there."

Friedman: "I read about a guy you had on the Spirits named Don Adams."

Kennedy: "Don Adams came in from Detroit."

Friedman: "I guess he was a physical player and he frustrated Doc a little bit during the series. What do you remember about that?"

Kennedy: "Well, what frustrated Doc more than anything during that series was Marvin. Marvin was all over Doc. When Marvin played he talked a lot of noise. He was constantly talking on the court, (saying things) like, 'You can't stop me, you can't do this.’"

Friedman: "That was one of the real shocking upsets in basketball history. I actually did an article a while back about some of the greatest upsets based on the difference in won/loss record. They were the defending champs, they had the better record and had beaten you so many times in a row." 

Kennedy was a soft-spoken man, and a fun interview subject. I am glad that I had the opportunity to speak with him about his ABA and NBA memories.

Rest in peace, "Goo."

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posted by David Friedman @ 8:44 PM

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Sunday, December 06, 2020

2020-21 Western Conference Preview

LeBron James added a fourth title and fourth Finals MVP to his resume, becoming the first player to win a Finals MVP with three different franchises. He had already established himself as one of the greatest players of all-time even before he led the L.A. Lakers to the 2020 NBA championship, and now it just remains to be seen how much more he will accomplish to add fuel to the never-ending conversations/debates about who should be ranked as the greatest player of all-time.

The L.A. Clippers were expected to be the biggest threat to the Lakers, but instead the Clippers squandered a 3-1 lead versus the Denver Nuggets and thus did not even face the Lakers in the playoffs. Doc Rivers left to coach the Philadelphia 76ers, and his assistant Tyronn Lue, who coached Cleveland to the 2016 title, now takes over the reins.

The Denver Nuggets have two great young stars in Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, and it will be interesting to watch that team and those stars continue to grow.

The Golden State Warriors will be in the mix, even without the services of Klay Thompson.

On the other hand, the Oklahoma City Thunder surpassed expectations by qualifying for the 2020 playoffs, and then they pushed the Houston Rockets to seven games in the first round, but during the offseason the franchise hit the reset button by trading Chris Paul and Abdel Nader to the Phoenix Suns in exchange for Kelly Oubre, Ricky Rubio, Ty Jerome, Jalen Lecque, and a first round pick in the 2022 NBA Draft. The Thunder also traded away Steven Adams and Danilo Gallinari in separate deals. It is not clear yet if the Thunder are tanking, but it would appear that at the very least they are willing to accept having a worse regular season record this season while stockpiling draft picks. For the Suns, this deal signals that the team--fresh off of a league-best 8-0 record in the "bubble" that was not quite enough to earn the eighth playoff spot--is trying to win now, but with a limited definition of "win": as a diminutive, aging point guard Chris Paul's long-term value is questionable, but last season he demonstrated that he can still be a productive player. Acquiring Paul signals that the Suns are very much trying to qualify for the 2021 playoffs, but this deal is not likely to help much in terms of lifting the Suns into long-term championship contention, or even helping the Suns to win a single playoff series.

This preview has the same format as my Eastern Conference Preview; the following eight teams are ranked based on their likelihood of making it to the NBA Finals:

1) L.A. Lakers: LeBron James' first season in L.A. was a disappointment but he more than made up for that in year two, as the seemingly ageless superstar returned to MVP form while delivering the franchise's first title since Kobe Bryant led the team to back to back crowns in 2009-10. James led the league in assists while demonstrating that he can still be a great scorer as well. Anthony Davis was at times the best player on the team, if not the entire league, and he seems poised to be the team's best player after James slows down or retires.

The Lakers lost several players, including Danny Green, Dwight Howard, Rajon Rondo, and Avery Bradley (who did not play in the "bubble"), but they added Montrezl Harrell, Dennis Schroder, Marc Gasol, and Wesley Matthews. On paper, the changes look like a net positive, so there is no reason not to rank the Lakers as the top team in the West.

2) L.A. Clippers: The Clippers' season began with high expectations and ended with crushing disappointment. Kawhi Leonard has received a lot of criticism, and some of that is fair and to be expected because he is the team's best player--but he is also a two-time champion and two-time Finals MVP who has proven that he knows how to win, while many of his teammates lack that championship pedigree. Leonard must take responsibility for perhaps doing too much "load management" to the detriment of team chemistry, and he obviously must take responsibility for not playing better in game seven versus Denver, but overall I would argue that his teammates failed him more than he failed them. Leonard's frustration with his teammates' lack of focus was quite evident at times, a departure from Leonard's usually implacable on court demeanor. I disagree with the notion that Leonard is not a good leader, and I disagree with the notion that a publicly reserved player like Leonard cannot be a leader. He has already proven his leadership capabilities at the championship level, and Tim Duncan is an example of a publicly reserved player who was without question a great leader.

It seems as if Doc Rivers was not able to reach some of the players last season, and not able to get them to play their best. It will be interesting to see to what extent Tyronn Lue is able to turn that around.

The Clippers should be the second best team in the West, but they will need to display a lot more focus and mental toughness than they did last season if they expect to beat the Lakers in a playoff series.

3) Denver Nuggets: The Nuggets are very good, but perhaps not quite good enough, much like the Boston Celtics. The Nuggets will win a lot of regular season games, and they are fully capable of pushing the Lakers or the Clippers to the brink in a seven game series--obviously, as they actually beat the Clippers in seven games last season--but they seem to lack the necessary focus to be a championship team. Coach Mike Malone repeatedly had to publicly urge them to play hard which, as TNT's Charles Barkley noted during the playoffs, is baffling and troublesome; a coach should not have to beg professional players to put forth effort.

Nikola Jokic is incredibly talented, as is Jamal Murray. It is possible that this team will continue to grow, and possibly either win a title soon, or else win a title after LeBron James retires, but I do not see the Nuggets winning the 2021 championship, or even advancing to the 2021 NBA Finals.

4) Golden State Warriors: The season-ending injury suffered by Klay Thompson when he was on the brink of returning from a previous season-ending injury is a devastating blow to Golden State's championship hopes, but with a healthy Stephen Curry this should still be not just a playoff team but a very good playoff team. Two-time MVP Curry was the best player on the record-setting 73 win Warriors team even prior to Kevin Durant's arrival, and Curry was the best player on Golden State's first championship team in this era, though Curry has yet to win a Finals MVP despite capturing three titles overall.

5) Dallas Mavericks: Kristaps Porzingis will miss the start of the regular season as he continues to rehab his ACL injury, but Luka Doncic emerged as an MVP caliber player last season as the Mavericks made a surprising run to the seventh seed in the West. This is not a championship caliber team, but there is no reason to expect regression from the seventh seed, and good reason to believe that the Mavericks can move up a couple more spots in the standings.

6) Utah Jazz: The Utah Jazz signed franchise cornerstone Donovan Mitchell to a five year contract extension, but did not make any moves to upgrade the roster. The Jazz pushed the Nuggets to seven games in the first round of the 2020 playoffs and they can be a threat to any team on a given night, but they just do not have quite enough talent to be ranked among the top four teams in the Western Conference.

7) Phoenix Suns: The Suns were the only team to go 8-0 in the "bubble," but that is not why I am picking them to qualify for the playoffs. Chris Paul cannot carry a team to a title, but he has proven that--even at a relatively advanced age for an undersized point guard--he can still have an impact on regular season winning. The Suns have some young and talented players who will benefit from his presence and his playmaking. They missed the playoffs by one game last season, and it is not difficult to believe that Paul will be worth more than one win.

8) New Orleans Pelicans: Teams 8-13 were separated by just four games in the Western Conference standings after "bubble" play concluded, so it is obvious that there will be several contenders for the final playoff spot this season. I am going with New Orleans because I am assuming that Zion Williamson will be reasonably healthy and that, like many young stars before him, he will be even more productive in his second season than he was as a rookie. The Pelicans replaced Coach Alvin Gentry with Stan Van Gundy. Gentry is not a bad coach, but Van Gundy is arguably a better coach. Losing Jrue Holiday hurts but adding Steven Adams and Eric Bledsoe helps a lot. 

As mentioned above, the bottom of the Western Conference playoff picture figures to be very competitive. 

The Houston Rockets finished fourth in the Western Conference last season, but after losing to the Lakers in five games in the second round the franchise has experience major upheaval with the departures of General Manager Daryl Morey, Coach Mike D'Antoni, and All-NBA guard Russell Westbrook. Morey built the Rockets around James Harden dribbling a lot and everyone--including Harden--shooting a ton of three pointers. I suspect that new Coach Stephen Silas is going to at least tweak that approach, and I also suspect that Harden is going to resist--i.e., pout about--any attempt to reduce his touches and shot attempts. While I hope that John Wall will be healthy and productive, that is a lot to ask of a player who has missed more than two years of action due to serious injuries. Further, even if Wall returns to peak form his peak form is essentially equivalent to an average Westbrook season, and thus it is difficult to picture the Rockets being nearly as good as they were last season even in the best case scenario. If Harden pouts and Wall is not as good as he used to be--both of which are very likely--then there are several teams in the West that are fully capable of vaulting past the Rockets in the standings. The race for the eighth seed will be competitive, and the Rockets will be in the mix, but I no longer see them as a top four team in the conference.

The Portland Trail Blazers made a somewhat fluky run to the 2019 Western Conference Finals before losing in the first round of the 2020 playoffs. It would not be shocking if they capture the eighth or even the seventh seed, but they are first round fodder at best, not a championship contender. 

The San Antonio Spurs missed the playoffs last season for the first time since 1997 but they made no significant offseason moves while other teams in the West improved, so they will likely miss the playoffs again; team culture matters a lot, but so does talent, and the Spurs just have ordinary talent right now.

The Memphis Grizzlies would have qualified for the playoffs had they not completely collapsed in the "bubble" but, like the Spurs, they did not make any meaningful improvements in the offseason while other teams in the West got better. 

The Sacramento Kings are another team that was in that 8-13 mix but did not improve during the offseason.

The Oklahoma City Thunder surprisingly ranked fifth in the West last season and they pushed the Rockets to seven games in the first round, but the losses of Chris Paul, Dennis Schroder, and Steven Adams are way too much to overcome.

The Minnesota Timberwolves only finished ahead of the injury-decimated Warriors last season, and the Timberwolves seem like they are headed straight to the bottom of the standings this season.

**********

Note:

I correctly picked six of the eight 2020 Western Conference playoff teams. Here are my statistics for previous seasons:

2019: 7/8
2018: 6/8
2017: 7/8
2016: 6/8
2015: 7/8
2014: 6/8
2013: 6/8
2012: 7/8
2011: 5/8
2010: 7/8
2009: 7/8
2008: 7/8
2007: 6/8
2006: 6/8

2006-2020 Total: 96/120 (.800)

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posted by David Friedman @ 12:34 PM

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2020-21 Eastern Conference Preview

The 2019-20 NBA season was interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, and ultimately finished in the Orlando "bubble" with 22 teams invited to play eight seeding games. The Milwaukee Bucks posted the best record in the Eastern Conference for the second consecutive season--and for the second consecutive season the Bucks failed to advance to the NBA Finals, this time losing to the Miami Heat in the second round of the playoffs.

The Bucks traded away Eric Bledsoe and George Hill to acquire Jrue Holiday as a secondary scorer/ playmaker to provide more support for reigning two-time regular season MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo. If that does not prove to be enough to significantly improve the Bucks' postseason results then Antetokounmpo may leave Milwaukee when he becomes a free agent after this season.

The Heat did not make any significant additions, but the most surprising team in the East--if not the entire league--from last season looks poised to make another deep playoff run with a balanced roster led by Jimmy Butler.

The Boston Celtics added Jeff Teague and Tristan Thompson, but lost Gordon Hayward and Enes Kanter. The Celtics look like a top four team in the East, but they do not appear to have quite enough to advance to the NBA Finals. 

The Brooklyn Nets are the most intriguing team in the East. They finished seventh in the East last season--albeit with a losing record--and they now add Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving to the mix, along with rookie Coach Steve Nash. On paper, the Nets have enough talent to win the East, assuming that Durant and Irving are healthy and play as well as they did before getting hurt. However, there are reasons to be concerned about team chemistry, so I don't see this team leaping straight from the bottom of the playoff pack to the NBA Finals in just one year.

Listed below are the eight teams that I expect to qualify for the Eastern Conference playoffs, ranked based on their likelihood of advancing to the NBA Finals:

1) Milwaukee Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo won his second consecutive regular season MVP, increasing his scoring and rebounding (career-high 29.5 ppg, compared to 27.7 ppg in 2018-19; career-high 13.6 rpg compared to 12.5 rpg in 2018-19) while continuing to post excellent numbers for assists (5.6 apg, just short of his career-high 5.9 apg in 2018-19) and field goal percentage (.553, 13th in the league but a bit lower than his career-high .578 in 2018-19). He accomplished all of this even though his minutes played declined for the second straight season. Antetokounmpo remained productive and efficient during the playoffs (26.7 ppg, 13.8 rpg, 5.7 apg, .559 field goal percentage) but he did not have the same impact on winning, and that has been the pattern for him the past couple years: he led his team to the best record in the East in both seasons, but in the playoffs he was not able to lift his team to contender status. 

This brings up the classic debate about superstars, going back at least as far as Wilt Chamberlain, and then extending through a variety of players up to and including Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant and LeBron James: is the failure to win a title primarily the fault of the superstar due to something lacking in his skill set and/or mentality, or is the failure to win a title primarily the fault of the supporting cast not being good enough? Chamberlain eventually won two titles, but in many quarters he is still depicted--unfairly, in my estimation--as a loser, or at least as someone who did not win as often as he supposedly should have won. Six-time NBA champion Jordan is viewed by many as the greatest winner in NBA history, a view that ignores the reality that Bill Russell led his team to 11 titles during his 13 seasons. Bryant "validated" his three titles won alongside Shaquille O'Neal by winning two more titles--and two Finals MVPs--without O'Neal. James is perhaps the most puzzling all-time great player ever: he has won four titles and four Finals MVPs, but he has lost six times in the Finals, and he blatantly quit in multiple playoff series when his team had a shot to win and advance.

It is easy to speculate or to make bold, unfounded predictions, but the reality is that we will not know Antetokounmpo's story for sure until he is done writing it. I believe that Antetokounmpo has what it takes to lead a team to a title, but I think that he needs to adjust how he plays during the playoffs, and I think that he needs a little bit more postseason help than he has received up to this point. I do not think that his game and/or mentality is limited to the extent that he is precluded from being the best player on a championship team; in other words, I would place him above players such as James Harden, Chris Paul, and Carmelo Anthony, All-Stars who even in their prime lacked one or more necessary factors to be the best player on a championship team. 

As a historian and as a basketball fan, I hope that Antetokounmpo spends his entire career in Milwaukee and that he works on building a franchise from the bottom up the way that Michael Jordan and Isiah Thomas did during their championship-winning careers; for that to happen, this season probably must be his 1991 Jordan season or his 1989 Thomas season, the season in which he wins a title (or, at the very least, advances to the NBA Finals) after falling short in the playoffs during the previous seasons. I have picked Milwaukee before and been wrong, but I will pick the Bucks at least one more time, because I am impressed by Antetokounmpo's skill set and mentality, and I believe that he and his team are still on an upward trajectory.

2) Miami Heat: No one, other than maybe Jimmy Butler, expected the Heat to advance to the 2020 NBA Finals; if you gave Pat Riley a lie detector test prior to the season, I doubt that even he could honestly say that he expected that to happen.

Butler has established a track record that teams get better after he arrives, and they get worse after he leaves, but last season provided the most dramatic bullet point for his expanding resume, as he led the Heat to the Finals in his first season with the team while his former team, the Philadelphia 76ers, bowed out meekly in the first round of the playoffs. 

The Heat did not make any splashy signings in the offseason, though the acquisition of Avery Bradley adds defense and depth. Several teams in the East have improved, but the Heat have a legitimate opportunity to return to the NBA Finals.

3) Boston Celtics: The Celtics are a very good team, a team that has multiple All-Stars--including one,  Jayson Tatum, who looks like a potential future MVP. They have knocked on the door of the NBA Finals three times in the past four years only to lose in the Eastern Conference Finals (2017-18, 2020). Perhaps they are the 1980s Pistons or 1990s Bulls, poised to make a breakthrough; remember that in the 1980s it was not clear whether Detroit, Chicago, Cleveland, Atlanta, or some other team would emerge after Boston declined; only in retrospect can we look at what happened and believe that the rise of the Pistons and then the rise of the Bulls was inevitable. So, while we are focused in the moment on Miami's 2020 Finals run and on what Antetokounmpo's legacy will turn out to be, Boston could end up being the team that gets over the hump.

However, I would say that Boston winning a championship is possible/plausible, but not probable. Yes, the Celtics are very good, but they just don't seem to be quite good enough. The historical parallel for this team would appear to be a team like the 1980s Milwaukee Bucks, a squad that repeatedly went toe to toe with the Philadelphia 76ers and the Boston Celtics--the dominant Eastern Conference teams, winners of the 1981, 1983, 1984, and 1986 NBA titles--only to never make it to the NBA Finals.

4) Brooklyn Nets: The last time Kevin Durant was healthy for a complete season, he led the Golden State Warriors to the second of back to back titles while making a strong case that he, not LeBron James, was the best player in the NBA. He put a scare into Toronto in the 2019 NBA Finals before a season-ending injury forced him out of the series and doomed his Warriors to defeat. If Durant returns to anything approaching that level then the Nets will be legitimate championship contenders, particularly if his buddy Kyrie Irving is also able to return to the form he displayed while winning the 2016 championship alongside LeBron James as a Cleveland Cavalier.

Unfortunately, there is no way to know for sure how much, if anything, Durant lost during his extended absence, and the same is true for Irving. Irving is a wondrously talented ball-handler and clutch scorer, but he has never had much team success as the first option (fortunately for Brooklyn, he will not be the first option as long as a healthy Durant is around), and chemistry questions/issues often seem to surround him. Irving just has a knack for saying or doing things that appear to rub some of his teammates the wrong way. Is Irving a champion who has high standards who expects others to hold themselves to high standards as well, or is he a brooding malcontent who is more trouble than he is worth? The truth is probably more complex than the blunt, simple narratives that the media love to portray. If Durant is healthy and productive then any drama associated with Irving will likely be muted, if not eliminated. 

This is a tough team to handicap. The best case scenario is obvious and plausible: advance to the NBA Finals and possibly even win the title. The worst case scenario is equally obvious and plausible: Durant and/or Irving get hurt, chemistry issues erupt, the team either misses the playoffs or else loses in the first round.

My best estimate is that reality will fall somewhere in the middle: a top four seed, a chance to make a deep playoff run if everything breaks right, but most likely a second round loss that will be a stepping stone for possible title contention in the following years.

5) Philadelphia 76ers: Daryl Morey left the Houston Rockets with the stated intention of spending more time with his family, only to quickly sign up to be the Philadelphia 76ers' President of Basketball Operations, which is a de facto demotion for Elton Brand even though Brand retains his position as the franchise's General Manager. It is clear that Morey, not Brand, will be the final decision maker on player personnel and the coaching staff.

Morey proved at least two things in Houston: (1) He does not know how to build a championship team; (2) he is rather skilled at finding undervalued role players and plugging them into his team's rotation without overpaying them. His moves since arriving to Philadelphia fit both molds, as the 76ers got rid of Al Horford and Josh Richardson while acquiring Dwight Howard, Danny Green, Seth Curry, and Terrance Ferguson. Those are not bad moves, but they are also not moves that shake up the balance of power in the East or lift the 76ers very much in the standings.

The 76ers finished sixth in the East last season before being swept by Boston in the first round. The 76ers may move up to fifth in 2021, but they will almost certainly once again be first round fodder.

The 76ers first hired "stat guru" Sam Hinkie and now they are relying on "stat guru" Daryl Morey but, contrary to a recent book title, it is not accurate to say that they were or are "Tanking to the Top." If anything, it could be argued that the Joel Embiid-Ben Simmons duo has peaked, and is sliding toward mediocrity. 

6) Toronto Raptors: The Raptors surprised me--and many other people--by finishing with the second best record in the East despite losing the services of 2019 Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard. Toronto lost a tough, seven game second round series to Boston, but the Raptors did nothing substantive to improve their roster during the offseason, and they lost two of the big men who contributed to their championship run, Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol.

Nick Nurse has proven to be an excellent coach, Pascal Siakam blossomed into an All-Star, and Fred VanVleet--who the Raptors re-signed during the offseason--looks like a future All-Star but losing three key rotation players in two years is tough to overcome. The Raptors are still a playoff team, but they are not a team that will advance past the first round.  

7) Indiana Pacers: The Pacers replaced Coach Nate McMillan with Nate Bjorkgren (an assistant coach for the 2019 NBA champion Toronto Raptors), but they made no significant roster moves. This team has lost in the first round of the playoffs five years in a row, and that trend will almost certainly continue in 2021.

8) Washington Wizards: Acquiring All-NBA guard Russell Westbrook in exchange for John Wall, who has not played an NBA game in more than two years due to various injuries, immediately elevates the Wizards to playoff status. Westbrook, a former regular season MVP (2017), played at an MVP level for about two months last season prior to the league shutting down due to COVID-19. He adjusted pretty quickly to playing alongside James Harden before lifting his game during that two month stretch, but Westbrook's game did not return to an MVP level after he contracted COVID-19 and then suffered a league injury in the "bubble." Assuming that Westbrook is fully healthy now, there is no reason to think that he cannot resume playing at an MVP level; he should be much more comfortable in Washington playing for his former Oklahoma City Coach Scott Brooks than he was playing in Houston as part of the "James Harden Dribble, Dribble, Dribble Show."

The Wizards finished ninth in the Eastern Conference last season, and an MVP caliber player is typically worth at least 15 wins over the course of an 82 game season--or 13 games during a 72 game season--so if all other factors are relatively equal then it is reasonable to expect the Wizards to improve from 25-47 to 38-32, give or take a couple wins.

The rest of the East figures to be rather dismal. The Orlando Magic were one of two East teams to make the playoffs last season with a sub-.500 record, but the other team (Brooklyn) just added Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, while the Magic's main addition is first round pick Cole Anthony. It is not difficult to project Washington moving past the Magic, pushing the Magic out of the playoff picture and into the Draft Lottery. The remaining East teams each had a winning percentage of .354 or worse (equivalent to a 29-53 record in an 82 game season or a 25-47 record in a 72 game season); all of those teams have major weaknesses, and none of them made offseason moves that are likely to have a significant enough impact on winning during the upcoming season to move into the top eight in the standings, but if I had to pick one team from the "Subpar Seven" to be a sleeper I would say to keep an eye on Detroit, a team that moved out a lot of players and pulled off a bit of a surprise by acquiring Jeremi Grant. The Pistons probably did not do enough to jump from 20-46 to playoff contention in one season but if there is one sleeper among these "sleeping" teams they could be it. The Charlotte Hornets signed Gordon Hayward and drafted LaMelo Ball, so they should be better than 23-42 this season but it does not seem likely that those two players are enough to carry the Hornets to the postseason.

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Note:

I correctly picked seven of the eight 2020 Eastern Conference playoff teams. Here are my statistics for previous seasons:

2019: 6/8
2018: 6/8
2017: 5/8
2016: 5/8
2015: 5/8
2014: 6/8
2013: 7/8
2012: 8/8
2011: 5/8
2010: 6/8
2009: 6/8
2008: 5/8
2007: 7/8
2006: 6/8

2006-2020 Total: 90/120 (.750)

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posted by David Friedman @ 12:33 PM

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