Doncic is Doncic, Washington Shines Early, and Irving Dominates Fourth Quarter as Mavericks Beat Thunder, 105-101
While it is true that game one winners win NBA playoff series more than 75% of the time, there are situations when the better team is flat for whatever reason in game one but then subsequently takes over. It remains to be seen if the defending champion Denver Nuggets have taken over versus the Minnesota Timberwolves, but Denver's game three rout put an end to all of the sweep talk and all of the slanderous talk about Nikola Jokic's legacy. In the other Western Conference second round series, the Oklahoma City Thunder dominated the Dallas Mavericks 117-95 in game one, but the Mavericks seized homecourt advantage with a 119-110 game two win and now the Mavericks are up 2-1 after beating the Thunder 105-101 in game three.
P.J. Washington scored a team-high 27 points on 11-23 field goal shooting, including 5-12 from three point range; the Thunder are conceding corner threes in general--and corner threes to Washington in particular--so even though the Mavericks did not have a great three point shooting performance overall (11-33, .333) they must be happy to be given so many open treys from the shortest three point distance around the arc. Luka Doncic limped through 41 minutes with assorted injuries, but he still produced 22 points, a game-high 15 rebounds, and five assists. Kyrie Irving also had 22 points, and he dished for a team-high seven assists.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a game-high 31 points, passed for six assists, and led the Thunder in both rebounds (10) and blocked shots (game-high five). Jalen Williams added 16 points and a game-high eight assists, but overall the Thunder are being pushed around, and slender starter Josh Giddey has been rendered so ineffective that he only played 13 minutes. The Mavericks' size and physicality have been the dominant themes starting with game two, and it is not clear that the Thunder can match up in those areas. The Mavericks won the rebounding battle 48-41, which helped them to launch 10 more field goal attempts than the Thunder. The Thunder outshot the Mavericks from the field .469 to .429 but still lost; it is more likely that the Mavericks will start shooting better than that the Thunder will suddenly become bigger, stronger, and tougher. The Mavericks outscored the Thunder 52-38 in the paint; regardless of what "stat gurus" insist, the truth is that games, series, and championships are won in the paint, not on the perimeter.
Hubie Brown provided the color commentary for ABC. He also did the ESPN color commentary for Dallas's game two win. During his pregame remarks, he praised Doncic's toughness for playing through injuries, and he also highlighted Doncic's pinpoint passing that creates easy scoring opportunities for his teammates. Brown said that Gilgeous-Alexander "is not unstoppable, but if you're guarding him you've got a full night's work ahead of you."
Brown noted early in the game that the big man rolling to the hoop is wide open for the Mavericks: "You've got to be happy if you're Dallas because everything is in the painted area." The Mavericks jumped out to a 15-7 lead, and even though the rest of the game featured runs by both teams the overall pattern had been set: Dallas is more physical, and Dallas can create more easy scoring opportunities.
The Thunder's Lu Dort picked up his second foul with 41 seconds left in the first quarter, forcing him to the bench. Brown mentioned that Dort's absence not only removes a top defender but also slows down the Thunder's running game.
Throughout the game, Brown emphasized that Dallas needs contributions from the bench in general, and from Tim Hardaway Jr. and Josh Green in particular. Dereck Lively II proved to be Dallas' most productive bench player in this game, contributing 12 points and eight rebounds in 27 minutes as Dallas' bench scored 23 points compared to 24 points for Oklahoma City's bench. Dallas can live with a near draw in this category as long as not only Doncic and Irving are cooking but Washington is also having a huge impact.
The Thunder led 52-51 at halftime, but the way that they built that slender margin was not sustainable: they were outrebounded 26-16 and only attempted 38 field goals compared to Dallas' 50, but they outshot Dallas .526 to .400 from the field. Once both teams' field goal percentages reverted to the mean--the Thunder shot .499 from the field during the regular season, while the Mavericks shot .481--the Mavericks regained the lead, outshooting the Thunder .463 to .419 in the second half.
Perhaps Jason Kidd rubbed media members the wrong way during his career, because otherwise it is difficult to understand why he does not receive more credit for being an excellent coach. Brown pointed out during the second half how effective the Mavericks' "soft matchup 2-3 zone" had been.
The Mavericks led by as much as nine points during the fourth quarter, but the Thunder trimmed the margin to 92-89 before Doncic converted a layup at the 6:23 mark. Soon after that, Lively checked in, and the Thunder intentionally fouled him four times during the remainder of the game. Lively shot 5-8 from the free throw line in the fourth quarter and 8-12 overall. The math behind the intentional foul strategy is that if it holds the opposing team to one point per possession or less then the fouling team can either extend a lead or gain ground by making two point shots or three point shots--but that basic math does not take into account several basketball realities, including (1) the team that is fouled can set up an entrenched halfcourt defense, (2) intentional fouling slows down the game and thus kills the fouling team's fastbreak opportunities, (3) intentional fouling sends the message to both teams that the fouling team believes that it cannot win the game by getting a series of defensive stops, and (4) even a bad free throw shooter will likely hit a few free throws when given the chance to develop a shooting rhythm. Thus, intentional fouling ends up conceding more free points than "expected" mathematically while also making it more difficult for the fouling team to score.
By the time the Thunder stopped fouling Lively intentionally, the Mavericks led 100-95.
Irving has been a big-time scorer throughout his career, but so far in this series he has been picking his spots to score. After scoring 14 points in the first three quarters, he had eight fourth quarter points on 4-4 field goal shooting to close the deal.
The Thunder earned the number one seed in the Western Conference--albeit on a tiebreak over the Denver Nuggets and just one game ahead of the third place Minnesota Timberwolves--and they are a young team on the rise, but to win a championship a team must be able to withstand physical play, rebound and defend the paint; those three areas are weaknesses that will be difficult for the Thunder to overcome versus the Mavericks.
Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Dereck Lively II, Hubie Brown, Kyrie Irving, Luka Doncic, Oklahoma City Thunder, P.J. Washington, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
posted by David Friedman @ 10:27 PM
Timberwolves Can Put Away The Brooms and Roll Up Their Sleeves After Being Dominated by Nuggets
Minnesota fans can put away their brooms, and they can hold off on making championship parade plans just yet. There is no doubt that the Timberwolves dominated the defending champion Denver Nuggets in the first two games of their playoff series, but a playoff series is a race to four wins, not two--and in game three the Nuggets made the Timberwolves look like a bunch of little puppies with a 117-90 rout that demonstrated that the Nuggets have no intention of meekly giving up their crowns.
Nikola Jokic recently became just the 10th member of pro basketball's Three MVP Club, and in game three he had an MVP-level performance: a game-high 24 points on 10-18 field goal shooting, a game-high 14 rebounds, a game-high nine rebounds, a game-high three blocked shots, and a game-high three steals. Other than hitting two game-winning shots, Jamal Murray has struggled for most of the 2024 playoffs, but in this game he tied Jokic for game-high honors with 24 points while also dishing for five assists and tying Jokic with a game-high three steals. All five Denver starters scored in double figures, with Michael Porter Jr. (21 points), Aaron Gordon (13 points), and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (12 points) each making major contributions to support Jokic and Murray.
Anthony Edwards led Minnesota with 19 points, but to his credit he took the blame for the loss and vowed to be better in game four on Sunday. What a novel concept--a team's best player taking responsibility and not firing passive-aggressive shots toward his coach, his teammates, the referees, and anyone other than himself! I very much like Edwards' game and his demeanor, but I wish that media members would stop making premature Michael Jordan comparisons and just let Edwards write his own story chapter by chapter. Michael Jordan became MICHAEL JORDAN not because of hype but because of sustained individual excellence capped off by a pair of championship threepeats.
The Nuggets jumped on the Timberwolves early, led 56-41 at halftime, and were never threatened in the second half. Perhaps what we are witnessing is the difference between playing against the L.A. Lakers--an overhyped team--and a legit playoff team like the Timberwolves. The Nuggets started slowly in every game versus the Lakers and it did not matter, because when the chips were down Jokic and company consistently outdueled LeBron James and Anthony Davis. That casual approach did not cut it in games one and two versus the Timberwolves, so in game three the Nuggets led at the end of the first quarter for just the second time in eight games in the 2024 playoffs.
I saw and heard a lot of nonsense about how being swept by the Minnesota Timberwolves would affect Nikola Jokic's legacy, but there are two reasons that I did not waste a minute thinking about--let alone writing an article about--that topic: Jokic had not yet been swept by the Timberwolves, and the result of any one four game stretch does not define a player's legacy. By the way, here are Jokic's allegedly awful statistics from the first two games of this series: 24.0 ppg, 12.0 rpg, 8.5 apg, .421 FG%, 1.000 FT%. Before considering anything else, the fact that those numbers are considered to be subpar for Jokic says a lot about how great he is. Even that field goal percentage--which is very low by Jokic's standards--is better than James Harden's field goal percentage in 18 of his 30 career playoff series, and Jokic's scoring/rebounding/assist splits exceed Harden's playoff career averages in each category. So, Jokic's critics are admitting that "bad" Jokic is equivalent to better than average Harden.
To put all of this nonsensical legacy talk in perspective, Jokic has won as many playoff games in the past 24 hours as LeBron James and Kevin Durant have won in their last 15 playoff games combined (1-8 for James, 0-6 for Durant). James is playing alongside a member of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team who is in his prime, and Durant is playing alongside two players who have earned multiple All-Star selections, while Jokic has never played with an All-Star (unless you count the ghost of Deandre Jordan, who is planted on Denver's bench this season). Read that sentence again, and then remember that James and Durant won their championships by team-hopping to play with multiple All-Stars. In nine seasons, Jokic has never played with an All-Star, but he has earned three regular season MVPs and posted a 9-4 career playoff series record. For most of his career, the on/off splits demonstrate that Denver is an elite team with Jokic on the court and a poor team with him off of the court.
So, let's stop with the fairy tales about legacy, because if people keep telling lies about Jokic then someone will have to start telling the truth about James and Durant (not to mention MVP award winners like Joel Embiid and James Harden who have not only never led a team to the NBA Finals but also regularly flame out during the playoffs).
This series is still a race to four wins. All we know for sure now is that it will not end in a sweep. The Timberwolves still own homecourt advantage, but that could change on Sunday with a Nuggets win. History suggests that if the Nuggets regain homecourt advantage then they will have an excellent opportunity to advance because game five will be played in Denver, and the winner of game five in a tied series wins the series the vast majority of the time.
In short, this game was never about making or breaking Jokic's legacy, and the next game will not be about that, either. Jokic has already built a significant legacy, and what will matter in the end is the sum total of consistent individual production plus championships won and series won, not the small sample size theater from the outcome of one series.
Labels: Anthony Edwards, Denver Nuggets, Jamal Murray, Minnesota Timberwolves, Nikola Jokic
posted by David Friedman @ 1:22 AM
Pacers Outscrap Scrappy Knicks to Win Game Three, 111-106
"The inches we need are everywhere around us. They're in every break
of the game, every minute, every second. On this team, we fight for that
inch. On this
team, we tear ourselves and everyone else around us to pieces for that
inch. We claw with our fingernails for that inch, because we know when
we
add up all those inches that's gonna make the f------ difference
between winning and losing! Between livin' and dyin'!"--Coach Tony
D'Amato, "Any Given Sunday"
The New York Knicks are not the
biggest or the most talented team in the NBA, but they might be the
scrappiest. In a must win game three at home, the Indiana Pacers
outscrapped the New York Knicks by just enough to win 111-106 and
preserve the opportunity to tie the series at 2-2 with one more home
win. Tyrese Haliburton scored a game-high 35 points while shooting 14-26
from the field (including 6-16 from three point range), and he also
dished for a game-high seven assists. Pascal Siakam added 26 points and
seven rebounds, while Myles Turner contributed 21 points, a team-high 10
rebounds, and three blocked shots.
Donte DiVincenzo picked up
the slack for a hobbled Jalen Brunson--who was questionable before the
game with a right foot injury--by tying Haliburton for game-high honors
with 35 points. Brunson was less efficient than usual, shooting just
10-26 from the field and having five turnovers to go along with his six
assists. He finished with 26 points, and he scored seven points on 2-7
field goal shooting in the fourth quarter as both he and the Knicks
seemed worn down; the Knicks scored just 16 points on 4-19 fourth
quarter shooting.
The Pacers outrebounded the Knicks 42-41,
including 15-10 in the fourth quarter when the Pacers snared five
offensive rebounds. Aaron Nesmith corralled the last of those offensive
rebounds with 30.5 seconds remaining and the score tied at 106. Andrew
Nembhard struggled with his shot (five points on 2-8 field goal
shooting), but he converted that extra possession into what turned out
to be the game-winning three pointer with 17.8 seconds remaining.
Nesmith closed out the scoring with a pair of free throws.
The
injury-depleted Knicks played without Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson,
and OG Anunoby, but after falling behind by 12 points in the first
quarter they surged to a 98-89 lead with 9:46 left in the fourth quarter
before the Pacers saved their season (at least for now) by closing the
game on a 22-8 run.
Watching the Knicks and Pacers scrap, scratch,
and claw for every inch during this highly competitive game, one cannot
avoid thinking about two teams that recently fired their coaches: the
L.A. Lakers (Darvin Ham) and the Phoenix Suns (Frank Vogel). If you
conducted a draft of the players on the rosters of these four teams, it
is doubtful that a Knick or a Pacer would make the top four: Anthony
Davis, LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and Devin Booker would lock up those
spots, and then Brunson would go fifth--but is it the fault of Ham and
Vogel that their teams combined to win just one playoff game in 2024?
The
Lakers and Suns don't play hard consistently--and, as Coach D'Amato
declared in his famous speech, the coach can't make the players play
hard: the players have to commit to playing hard and fighting for those
inches. Coaches design game plans, but stars set the tone for how hard a
team plays. LeBron James won his four championships by hopping from
team to team and begging other stars to play with him. Kevin Durant won
his two titles by fleeing Oklahoma City to join a team that had just
beaten him and had previously won a championship without him. There is
no doubt that James and Durant are all-time great players, but they did
not achieve that status by playing the way that the Knicks play. Imagine
if the Lakers and Suns played as hard each game this season as the Knicks
do every game and as the Pacers did in this game with their season on
the line. There is no way that the Lakers and Suns would have finished
the way that they did if they had consistently played hard.
The
Knicks are a joy to watch, and even though the Pacers don't bring that
kind of energy every game it is fair to say that they do so more often
than the Lakers and Suns do. The Knicks do not complain, whine, or make
excuses. They just play ball. After the first two games of this series,
the Pacers whined to some extent about some admittedly bad calls, but
they also candidly admitted that they had to play better--and they came
through in game three. In marked contrast, the star players from the
Lakers and Suns threw their coaches under the bus without ever taking
personal responsibility for how much their teams underachieved.
Basketball
purists are thrilled to watch Knicks-Pacers, and relieved that we don't
have to see the Lakers and Suns until next fall.
Labels: Andrew Nembhard, Donte DiVincenzo, Indiana Pacers, Jalen Brunson, Myles Turner, New York Knicks, Pascal Siakam, Tyrese Haliburton
posted by David Friedman @ 11:21 PM
Mavericks Silence Thunder, Even Series at 1-1
For the first time in the 2024 playoffs, the young Oklahoma City Thunder looked young--and for the first time in the 2024 playoffs, the Thunder lost a game, as the Dallas Mavericks drained 18 three pointers in a 119-110 victory to knot the series at 1-1 and swipe homecourt advantage from the Western Conference's top seeded team. Luka Doncic and P.J. Washington tied for team-high honors with 29 points. Doncic shot 11-21 from the field (including 5-8 from three point range) while also grabbing 10 rebounds and dishing for seven assists. Washington set his playoff career-high for scoring in the first half alone with 19 points and then had a solid second half as well while also leading the Mavericks with 11 rebounds. His 7-11 three point shooting was the decisive--and unexpected--factor for the Mavericks. Tim Hardaway Jr. had been inactive for the previous four playoff games, but he made a major contribution with 17 points in 19 minutes off of the bench. Kyrie Irving could not find his shot (nine points on 2-8 field goal shooting) but he had a game-high 11 assists.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander--who finished second in 2024 regular season MVP balloting--had another MVP-caliber performance with a game-high 33 points, a game-high 12 rebounds, and a team-high eight assists. However, only two other Thunder players scored in double figures--Jalen Williams had 20 points, and Chet Holmgren scored 11 points--and that was just not enough to overcome Dallas' balance (five players in double players) and long-range sniping. It can be risk to rely on high variance three point shooting and it remains to be seen if the Mavericks can either sustain this or find other ways to beat the Thunder, but there is no doubt that it is difficult to beat a team that shoots 18-37 (.486) from beyond the arc.
Hubie Brown provided the ESPN color commentary for this game. Brown provided the color commentary when Philadelphia beat Dallas 120-116 on Sunday March 3, and as far as I know this is just his second playoff game this year (the first was Indiana's 121-118 game three overtime win versus Milwaukee). I wish that I knew a way to find out which games he is doing so that if I am not able to watch live then I could record the game and watch later, but I am not aware of a schedule that shows in advance who is doing the TV color commentary for ESPN broadcasts.
Brown is an astute observer of the game, and I am always interested to compare his thoughts/observations about players and teams with my own, because part of my education as a basketball analyst was listening to Brown all the way back when he worked for CBS in the 1980s. There are several recurring themes to Brown's commentary, and those themes recur because they speak to important aspects of the sport. For example, Brown noted during the second quarter of this game, "Always reward the big guys--power forwards and centers--when they are running hard to score." Perhaps that does not seem profound, but if you have played basketball at any level--or observed basketball, from the lowest levels to the elite levels--then you know that if big men don't think that they will get the ball then they will be a step slow on the fast break, which then results in their team not having an advantage in numbers. Also, big men who are not getting the ball tend to not put forth as much effort on defense. As Shaquille O'Neal once declared, the big dog is not going to guard the house (the painted area) if he is not being fed (the ball). "Stat gurus" dismiss any factor that they cannot figure out how to quantify, but teams that do not involve their big men on offense tend to have poor chemistry, which causes problems at both ends of the court.
Regarding Washington, Brown called him a "hard worker, good defender" while adding, "Tonight everything is opening up for him." The Mavericks' offense relies on Doncic and Irving attracting defensive attention before spraying the ball to three point shooters, who are often deployed in the corners. That approach worked to perfection in this game because Washington hit so many corner three pointers.
The Thunder led the league in three point field goal percentage during the regular season (.389) but they shot just 10-30 (.333) from beyond the arc in this contest. That would not have necessarily been fatal had they defended the three point line better but the combination of not making a high volume of three pointers while giving up a high volume of three pointers left the Thunder with no margin for error.
Brown is a big fan of Gilgeous-Alexander, praising his ability to "stop on a dime to create space," and noting, "The thing that you love about him is that he will create space and find the open man." Brown observed how difficult it is for the 6-2 Irving to check the 6-6 Gilgeous-Alexander: "Once he (Gilgeous-Alexander) fades back, you have to make up that distance" and that leads to either uncontested shots or fouls if Irving lunges too far to close that gap. Brown added that Gilgeous-Alexander is "silky smooth. He's moving and it doesn't seem like he's moving."
A key stretch during the game happened midway through the third quarter. Hardaway Jr. checked in at the 5:17 mark with Dallas clinging to an 80-77 lead, and he scored Dallas' next 10 points as the Mavericks charged to a 90-79 advantage with 3:41 left in the stanza. The Thunder never got closer than four points the rest of the way. Brown was impressed not only with the quick strike scoring exploits of Hardaway Jr. but the overall play of Dallas' reserves: "This second unit that is on the floor, their quickness is showing up at both ends of the floor." Brown also said that Dallas' defense combined with high percentage three point shooting is keeping the "beep beep" Thunder from activating their running game.
Near the end of the game, Brown pointed out that the low number of turnovers (10 by each team) is "amazing" considering the level of physicality by both teams, and he concluded that the keys for Dallas' victory were high energy, unselfishness, and great scoring from their frontcourt players, while the biggest problem for the Thunder was how many open three pointers that they missed.
Each playoff game is its own distinct entity, a reality that is so often forgotten or ignored during the postseason as every team that wins is praised to the sky while every team that loses is castigated to extremes. One cannot project the outcome of this series just based on game two, but the factors that Brown mentioned will go a long way to deciding who wins the race to four games. Can Dallas sustain this energy level and also continue to get great scoring output from the frontcourt to supplement the wizardry of Doncic and Irving? Will the Thunder keep missing open three pointers? I picked Dallas to win this series in six games, so I think that Dallas outplaying Oklahoma City is sustainable, but the upcoming games will almost certainly not feature Dallas shooting .486 from three point range with Washington scoring 29 points--but Irving will likely not score less than 10 points in a game the rest of the series, either.
Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Hubie Brown, Kyrie Irving, Luka Doncic, Oklahoma City Thunder
posted by David Friedman @ 8:37 AM
If the Celtics Didn't Know, Now They Know: Cavaliers Seize Homecourt Advantage
Donovan Mitchell was the best player on the court and scored a game-high 29 points as the Cleveland Cavaliers stunned the Boston Celtics 118-94 to even up their second round series at 1-1, posting the largest margin of victory for a double digit underdog in an NBA playoff game in more than 30 years. The Cavaliers seized homecourt advantage as the series shifts to Cleveland for the next two games. Mitchell has the eighth highest playoff scoring average (28.0 ppg) in pro basketball history and he just dropped a game-high 39 points in Cleveland's 106-94 game seven win versus Orlando, so 29 points is an average playoff game for him--but his performance was anything but average: he shot 10-19 from the field (including 5-7 from three point range) while passing for a game-high eight assists, grabbing seven rebounds, and committing just one turnover in 39 minutes. He scored 23 second half points, matching the combined scoring total of all five Boston starters. Mitchell's game-high +38 plus/minus number looks like a typographical error for any playoff game, let alone for a player facing a team that won 64 regular season games.
Mitchell was great, but he was not a one-man show, as Evan Mobley added 21 points, a game-high 10 rebounds, and five assists. Caris LeVert poured in 21 points in 27 minutes off of the bench, and Darius Garland contributed 14 points, seven rebounds, and four assists. The Cavaliers shot 47-86 (.547) from the field, outrebounded Boston 44-31, and held Boston's high-octane offense to 33-80 (.412) field goal shooting, including 8-35 (.229) three point shooting.
The Cavaliers' slogan is "Let Em Know," and if the Celtics did not know that they would have to put forth some effort to
win this series they know that now. Boston had a dominant regular season and has reached the Eastern Conference Finals five times in the past seven seasons, but the Celtics have two weaknesses: they rely too much on three point shooting, and they have a tendency to lose focus (as illustrated by their mediocre home playoff record in recent years). Without taking any credit away from Cleveland, it is fair to say that both weaknesses were on full display in this game.
Jayson Tatum led Boston with 25 points, but he shot just 7-17 from the field. Boston's starters shot 23-61 (.377) from the field, including 6-28 (.214) from three point range. "Stat gurus" tout the alleged superior efficiency of volume three point shooting but the reality is that heavy reliance on three point shooting is a high variance strategy that leaves a team vulnerable to blowout losses in games during which the three pointers are not falling and that team refuses to go to Plan B (or does not have a Plan B). The Celtics have four wing players who can attack the paint--Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, and Jrue Holiday--but instead the Celtics jacked up three pointers and hoped for the best. Joe Mazzulla has proven that he is an excellent coach, but his insistence that the Celtics should fire up 50 three point shots per game could be a recipe for disaster: if the Celtics had launched 50 three pointers in this game then they might have lost by 50 points.
As Danny Ainge once noted sagely, the NBA playoffs are not the Tour de France: the Cavaliers will not start game three with a 24 point lead (nor did Boston start game two with a 25 point lead after taking game one, 120-95). The Celtics went 27-14 on the road this season, so the likelihood is that they will win at least one game in Cleveland to get back in the driver's seat--but needlessly prolonging a series can be costly: the Celtics fell down 3-0 to Miami last year, tied the series, and then lost at home in game seven after Tatum suffered an ankle injury during Boston's first possession. Every "extra" game played invites injury while also increasing the team's overall fatigue level.
These Cavaliers look much different than the Cavaliers who were pushed around by the New York Knicks in the first round last year, so it is dangerous for the Celtics to let them have even a glimmer of hope.
Labels: Boston Celtics, Caris Levert, Cleveland Cavaliers, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Jayson Tatum
posted by David Friedman @ 1:05 AM
Nikola Jokic Becomes 10th Member of Pro Basketball's Three MVP Club
Nikola Jokic earned his third regular season MVP in the past four seasons, becoming just the 10th member of pro basketball's Three MVP Club, and the first new member of that exclusive group since LeBron James joined in 2012. Bill Russell was the first pro basketball player who won at least three regular season MVP awards, and he was then followed by Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Julius Erving, Moses Malone, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, and LeBron James. Jokic and Malone are the only members of that group who are not in my pro basketball Pantheon. Jokic's career began after I made my selections, while Malone did not miss the cut by much.
This season, Jokic ranked in the top 10 in scoring (10th), rebounding (fourth), and assists (third), and he is the second player in pro basketball history to accumulate at least 2000 points, at least 900 rebounds, and at least 700 assists in the same season, matching a feat first accomplished by Oscar Robertson in 1961-62.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Jalen Brunson rounded out the top five in this season's MVP balloting. They each had MVP-caliber seasons, but no one filled up a boxscore quite like Jokic did, and no one was as essential to his team's success. Jokic is not a defensive stopper, but he uses his size and strength to good effect to clog up the paint, and his defensive rebounding helps the Denver Nuggets to finish off defensive possessions by gaining control of the ball. The Nuggets ranked fourth in defensive field goal percentage and sixth in points allowed, and that would not be possible if the player who leads the team in minutes played were a defensive liability.
My consistent position about MVP voting has been that the award should
go to the league's best all-around player unless there is a dominant big
man like Shaquille O'Neal who impacts the game more than any other
player. Jokic is a hybrid who fits into both categories: he is the
sport's best all-around player but he is also physically dominant in the
paint as a scorer and rebounder.
Jokic is just 29 years old and he has played at least 72 games in eight of his nine NBA seasons, so he is young enough and durable enough to play at an MVP level for at least another five or six years. It would not be surprising if he joins pro basketball's Four MVP Club, which has just six members:
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar: 6 (1971-72, 1974, 1976-77, 1980)
Bill Russell: 5 (1958, 1961-63, 1965)
Michael Jordan: 5 (1988, 1991-92, 1996, 1998)
Wilt Chamberlain: 4 (1960, 1966-68)
Julius Erving: 4 (1974-76 [ABA], 1981)
LeBron James: 4 (2009-10, 2012-13)
If Joel Embiid continues to be an injury-prone player who cannot lead his team past the second round of the playoffs then history will not look kindly on Embiid's 2023 regular season MVP award that cost Jokic the chance to become the first pro basketball player to win four straight regular season MVPs. Jokic has posted a 9-4 career playoff series record while leading the Nuggets to the 2023 championship, and even if the Minnesota Timberwolves knock out the Nuggets in this year's playoffs that will not invalidate Jokic's prior accomplishments and honors.
Labels: Bill Russell, Denver Nuggets, Julius Erving, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Larry Bird, LeBron James, Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, Moses Malone, Nikola Jokic, Wilt Chamberlain
posted by David Friedman @ 1:29 AM
Boston Versus Cleveland Preview
Eastern Conference Second Round
#1 Boston (64-18) vs. #4 Cleveland (48-34)
Season series: Boston, 2-1
Cleveland can win if…Donovan Mitchell has a historic scoring series, and Cleveland's big men dominate the paint. Mitchell scored 50 points in a game six loss versus Orlando in the first round, and then he had 39 points in Cleveland's 106-94 game seven win. His 89 combined points in games six and seven are the second most in NBA playoff history, trailing Allen Iverson by just one point. Iverson set his record versus Milwaukee in the 2001 Eastern Conference Finals as his Philadelphia 76ers lost on the road in game six and then won at home in game seven. Iverson dropped 48 points in his next game, leading the 76ers to a game one NBA Finals victory that proved to be the only loss suffered by the Shaq-Kobe Lakers en route to capturing their second consecutive NBA title. Iverson averaged a playoff career-high 32.9 ppg in 2001, and the Cavaliers will need a similarly extraordinary performance from Mitchell to have a chance to beat the dominant Celtics.
Mitchell scored 28.7 ppg on .459 field goal shooting versus Orlando
while averaging 5.1 rpg and 4.4 apg. Those numbers are consistent with
Mitchell's playoff career averages. He ranks eighth in ABA/NBA playoff history
with a 27.7 career scoring average, trailing only Michael Jordan, Luka
Doncic, Allen Iverson, Kevin Durant, Jerry West, LeBron James, and Devin
Booker while sitting just ahead of Rick Barry, Elgin Baylor, and
Stephen Curry.
Evan Mobley has a limited offensive game but he is a good rebounder and excellent shotblocker who averaged a career-high 9.4 rpg plus 1.4 bpg during the regular season, and 9.0 rpg plus 3.0 bpg in the first round versus Orlando. Jarrett Allen averaged 17.0 ppg, 13.8 rpg, and 1.0 bpg in the first four games of the Orlando series before suffering a rib injury that sidelined him for the last three games. His healthy return to action is critical for the Cavaliers to have any chance in this series.
The Cavaliers also need Darius Garland to play better than he did versus Orlando. He had 10 points in the fourth quarter of game seven to seal the win, but he averaged just 14.9 ppg on .449 field goal shooting during the series after averaging 18.0 ppg on .446 field goal shooting during the regular season. Garland made the All-Star team in 2022--the season before Mitchell joined the Cavaliers--and the Cavaliers need for Garland to play at an All-Star level to counteract Boston's lineup featuring multiple current and former All-Stars.
Boston will win because...Jayson Tatum is an MVP-caliber player who will be the best player in the series, and because Boston's overall talent is superior to Cleveland's. Tatum averaged 26.9 ppg, 8.1 rpg, and 4.9 apg during the regular season, and he averaged 21.8 ppg, 10.4 rpg, and 5.4 apg as the Celtics made short work of the short-handed Miami Heat in the first round. Tatum's scoring and field goal shooting (.416) were subpar during those five games but the Celtics did not miss a beat because Jaylen Brown averaged 22.8 ppg and Derrick White averaged 22.4 ppg. White and Jrue Holiday may be the best defensive backcourt in the league, while Tatum and Brown are excellent defenders as forwards who can also check guards.
Kristaps Porzingis injured his calf during Boston's game four win versus Miami, and he will likely miss this entire series. That is a significant blow because of Porzingis' impact at both ends of the court, but the Celtics have enough talent and depth to beat the Cavaliers even without Porzingis. Al Horford is a wily veteran and five-time All-Star with a lot of playoff experience. Luke Kornet will get more minutes off of the bench with Horford moving into the starting lineup.
Other things to consider: The Celtics clearly have the superior team even without Porzingis. They led the league in three point field goals made, defensive rebounds, blocked shots, and fewest turnovers, and they ranked second in both points scored and defensive field goal percentage. This is a complete team with no discernible weaknesses.
There are only two possible concerns for the Celtics (other than injuries, which can derail any team):
1) The Celtics heavily rely on three point shooting, and that kind of high variance offense is vulnerable to costly shooting slumps, particularly if there is a stubborn reluctance to eschew three pointers for drives to the hoop during games when the three point shots are not connecting.
2) Sometimes the Celtics lose focus against inferior teams, which can
prolong a series (or even cost the Celtics a series, as happened in last
year's Eastern Conference Finals versus Miami).
Errant three point shooting and lack of focus may cost Boston a game, and Donovan Mitchell may take over one game by himself, but it is difficult to picture Cleveland beating Boston four times.
Boston will defeat Cleveland in six games.
Labels: Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Donovan Mitchell, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum
posted by David Friedman @ 11:09 PM
Cavs “Let Em Know,” Make Magic Disappear in Hard Fought Game Seven
The Cleveland Cavaliers' 2024 slogan is "Let Em Know," and on Sunday afternoon the Cavaliers let everyone know that they could win a playoff series without LeBron James for the first time since the early 1990s when the team's franchise players were Mark Price and Brad Daugherty. The Orlando Magic built a 49-31 lead late in the first half in Cleveland before the Cavaliers pulled off the largest NBA game seven comeback since at least 1998 (which is as far back as such records go) and emerged with a 106-94 victory to earn the right to face the Boston Celtics in the second round.
The NBA should not need gimmicks like the NBA Cup or the Play-In Tournament
to convince players and teams that it is important to play hard; it
should suffice to review what happened in this series: the home team won
all seven games, including an epic comeback in the series clincher--and
the Cavaliers enjoyed homecourt advantage because they finished one
game ahead of the Magic in the 82 game regular season marathon. Of
course, the Cavaliers could have finished two games ahead of the Magic
if the Cavaliers had not tanked the fourth quarter of their final
regular season game, and it could be argued that karma should have
dictated that the Cavaliers lose to their hand-picked first round
opponent--but the larger point is that the Cavaliers took the regular
season seriously overall, and earned homecourt advantage for a first
round series that could have easily gone the other way had game seven
been played in Orlando.
Donovan Mitchell scored a game-high 39 points, dished for a team-high five assists, and committed just one turnover in 45 minutes. Mitchell attacked the hoop relentlessly and he made 15 of his hard-earned 17 free throw attempts to offset his 11-27 field goal shooting. Add in his 50 point performance in game six, and Mitchell posted the second highest combined game six/game seven scoring total in NBA playoff history, falling just one point short of Allen Iverson's record.
Caris LeVert contributed 15 points off of the bench on 5-9 field goal shooting while starters Max Strus (13 points), Darius Garland (12 points), and Evan Mobley (11 points) also scored in double figures. Strus nailed three treys, Garland led Cleveland with 10 fourth quarter points, and Mobley had a game-high 16 rebounds while also anchoring Cleveland's paint defense with a game-high five blocked shots (one more than Orlando's entire team had).
Paolo Banchero had a monster game for the Magic, finishing with 38 points plus a game-high tying 16 rebounds, but he shot just 10-28 from the field and seemed to wear down in the second half, producing 14 points and eight rebounds while shooting 4-15 from the field. Wendell Carter Jr. had a solid game (13 points, seven rebounds), but Jalen Suggs (10 points on 2-13 field goal shooting) and Franz Wagner (six points on 1-15 field goal shooting, the worst FG% in game seven history) struggled mightily.
Cleveland has a rich sports history that includes four
AAFC championships (1946-49), four NFL championships (1950, 1954-55,
1964), two World Series titles (1920, 1948), and one NBA championship (2016)--but
that history also includes some fiascos that are so infamous and
painful that they have become depressing catchword phrases that any
Cleveland sports fan knows by heart: "Red Right 88," "The Drive," "The Fumble," "The Shot." For most of the first half, this game seven seemed destined to be added to the above litany of sports meltdowns and disasters as the Magic looked unbeatable until the Cavaliers rallied just before halftime to cut the margin to a manageable 10 points (53-43). This game was a tale of two halves, because the Cavaliers outscored the Magic 63-41 in the second half while outshooting Orlando from the field, .542-.256. Mitchell reflected that tale in microcosm, scoring 15 first half points on 3-13 field goal shooting before pouring in 24 second half points on 8-14 field goal shooting.
Mitchell's impact went beyond his numbers. He demonstrated patient and productive leadership as he encouraged his teammates--most notably Garland--to keep shooting. After the game, Mitchell said that his message to Garland was simple: I don't give a (bleep) what happened before or if the crowd is booing--just trust the work you put in and shoot your shots. Mitchell hastened to add that at other times in the season Garland pumped him up. Mitchell did not show up his coach, throw his teammates under the bus, or spend more time whining to the referees than playing the game.
There is understandable skepticism that a team featuring two small guards like Mitchell and Garland can win a championship--and as someone who has consistently insisted that size matters in the NBA I share that skepticism--but I would caution those who insist that the Cavaliers should get rid of either Mitchell or Garland to consider that such a move is more likely to be a step backward than a step forward. With the assets that the Cavaliers would be willing and able to package, they are unlikely to receive more value in return than what they would be sending out. Mitchell is not an all-time great player like Nikola Jokic--but the few all-time great players who are playing now are not available. Mitchell has repeatedly proven that he can be highly productive on the sport's biggest stage--and even more significant than Mitchell's final game seven numbers is the fact that he did
not quit after his slow start, nor did he wilt under the pressure of the
moment. Several players who have won more honors than Mitchell have an established track record of disappearing
in big games.
The path to winning an NBA title when your best player is a player of Mitchell's caliber is to build a deep and versatile roster that can wear down teams that have more top end talent but less depth. There are not many such championship teams in NBA history, but the 2004 Pistons and the 1979 SuperSonics are two examples. Mitchell is no less talented than 2004 Finals MVP Chauncey Billups or 1979 Finals MVP Dennis Johnson. Billups and Johnson were better than Mitchell as playmakers and defenders, but Mitchell is a much more dynamic scorer. The Cavaliers have a young, solid nucleus of Mitchell, Garland, Mobley, LeVert, Strus, and Jarrett Allen (who missed the final three games versus Orlando due to a rib injury). The continued development of that core combined with shrewd drafting and one or two free agent signings or trades could lift the Cavaliers from barely being in the top four in the East to legitimately fighting for the Eastern Conference title. It is a positive sign that the Cavaliers are already one of the league's best defensive teams, which means that (1) the coaching staff led by J.B. Bickerstaff knows how to effectively teach defensive principles, and (2) the team's young players have bought into the importance of playing good defense.
Unless Mitchell insists that he wants to leave--in which case he will get his way, because that is how the modern NBA works for All-Star players--the Cavaliers should not trade him. Players who score 39 points in elimination games are rare, and their value cannot be matched by acquiring a package of role players and draft picks. The Cavaliers should not part with Garland, either, unless they can get a 6-6 guard who is an elite defender and competent range shooter to pair with Mitchell--but such players are hard to find and not likely to be available on the trade market.
Labels: Cleveland Cavaliers, Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs, Orlando Magic, Paolo Banchero
posted by David Friedman @ 1:37 AM
Dallas Versus Oklahoma City Preview
Western Conference Second Round
#1 Oklahoma City (57-25) vs. #5 Dallas (50-32)
Season series: Oklahoma City, 2-1
Oklahoma City can win if…Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the best player in the series, and his young supporting cast steps up in way not usually done by young supporting casts. Gilgeous-Alexander made the All-NBA First Team for the first time last season while also finishing fifth in MVP voting, and it has already been announced that he finished no worse than third in 2024 regular season MVP voting. He averaged at least 30 ppg (30.1 ppg) for the second season in a row while posting career-highs in assists (6.2 apg), steals (2.0 spg), and field goal percentage (.535). Gilgeous-Alexander has emerged as the poised leader of a very young but very dangerous team. He averaged 27.3 ppg, 6.0 rpg, and 5.0 apg as the Thunder swept the New Orleans Pelicans 4-0 in the first round.
Jalen Williams averaged 21.3 ppg, 7.3 rpg, and 5.0 apg versus the Pelicans while posting better shooting splits across the board than Gilgeous-Alexander (.529/.389/.750 compared to .476/.294/.727), and he is a lock to be a future All-Star after averaging 19.1 ppg, 4.5 apg, and 4.0 rpg as a 22 year old in just his second regular season.
Rookie Chet Holmgren is not dominant in any statistical category other than blocked shots (2.3 bpg during the regular season to rank fifth in the league; 2.8 bpg versus the Pelicans), but he fills up the boxscore across the board and also looks like a future All-Star.
Third year swingman Josh Giddey also fills up the boxscore in several categories without being dominant in one particular category.
Lu Dort is built like a tank, and he is a tenacious defensive player who is also a solid double figure scorer.
The Thunder's biggest weakness--no pun intended--is a lack of size, which is reflected in their low regular season rebounding ranking (27th). They are athletic and energetic, but if you can keep up with them then you can grind them down.
Dallas will win because...the Mavericks not only have the Luka Doncic-Kyrie Irving dynamic duo, but midseason acquisitions Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington provide size and defense. Doncic struggled with his field goal shooting (.405) and three point shooting (.239) as the Mavericks bounced the L.A. Clippers in six games, but he still nearly averaged a triple double (29.8 ppg, 9.5 apg, 8.8 rpg) while posing questions for which the Clippers had no answers. The Clippers hunted Doncic on defense, but in the end Doncic and Dallas hunted the Clippers more successfully. Contrary to an increasingly prevailing narrative, Irving's splendid play does not wipe out or excuse his unrepentant antisemitism, but in this article we will focus on how well he is playing. Irving torched the Clippers with shooting splits of .514/.449/.852 while averaging 26.5 ppg, 5.7 rpg, and 4.7 apg. When Doncic hit some rough patches with his shooting, Irving more than picked up the slack. Irving scored a game-high 30 points on 11-19 field goal shooting in game six to finish off the Clippers, and he had a scintillating 40 point performance on 14-25 field goal shooting in a 116-111 game four loss.
Dallas will miss Maxi Kleber--who is out indefinitely with a shoulder injury--but the Mavericks have enough size and depth to overpower the Thunder even without him.
Other things to consider: I picked the Mavericks to finish eighth in the West because the Doncic-Irving pairing looked clunky last season and because the Mavericks lacked size and defensive presence--but this season Doncic and Irving have played well together, and the midseason acquisitions described above fortified the Mavericks in the paint at both ends of the court.
I adjusted my take on the Mavericks accordingly, and picked them to beat the L.A. Clippers in the first round. In that same playoff preview article, I anticipated that this Dallas-Oklahoma City matchup would occur, and I predicted that Dallas would prevail in six tough games. I see no reason to change that prediction now (my initial Denver-Minnesota prediction before the playoffs began was Denver in five, but in my Denver-Minnesota series preview I went with Denver in six and even that revision may not have given enough credit to Minnesota's size, depth, and physicality).
Dallas will defeat Oklahoma City in six games.
Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Jalen Williams, Kyrie Irving, Luka Doncic, Oklahoma City Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
posted by David Friedman @ 12:13 PM
New York Versus Indiana Preview
Eastern Conference Second Round
#2 New York (50-32) vs. #6 Indiana (47-35)
Season series: Indiana, 2-1
Indiana can win if…their fastbreak attack overwhelms New York's methodical, physical playing style. The Pacers led the NBA in regular season scoring (123.3 ppg) and field goal percentage (.507), and they scored at least 120 points in each of their wins while defeating the injury-riddled Milwaukee Bucks 4-2 in the first round.
Midseason acquisition Pascal Siakam led the Pacers in scoring (22.3 ppg) and rebounding (8.8 rpg) in the first round while also averaging 4.2 apg. The versatile Siakam does everything well except for three point shooting. All-Star point guard Tyrese Haliburton (16.0 ppg, 9.3 apg in the first round) orchestrates the offense and keeps everyone involved, but he has proven that he is willing and able to make game-winning shots. Center Myles Turner had an excellent series (19.2 ppg, 7.2 rpg) versus Milwaukee.
The Pacers often play as if the only thing that they know about defense is that it surrounds "de-yard," but their fast pace of play and efficient offense put a lot of pressure on opposing teams to keep up.
New York will win because…Jalen Brunson will be the best player in the series. Brunson is reaching postseason heights no Knick has attained since Bernard King was in his prime in the mid-1980s. Brunson played at an elite level as his Knicks dispatched the Philadelphia 76ers 4-2 in the first round. He leads the playoffs in scoring (35.5 ppg) while ranking fourth in assists (9.0 apg), and he became the seventh player in NBA playoff history to post at least three straight 40-plus point games, joining Jerry West, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Bernard King, Michael Jordan (three times), Allen Iverson, and Jamal Murray. Brunson, Jordan (twice), and LeBron James are the only players in NBA playoff history to have at least 35 points and at least five assists in three straight games in the same postseason.
Josh Hart is a 6-4 swingman with an incredible nose for the ball: he averaged a team-high 12.3 rpg versus the 76ers after averaging 8.3 rpg during the regular season. Hart led the Knicks with 46.3 mpg versus the 76ers, and he ranked second with 16.8 ppg.
OG Anunoby scores (15.0 ppg versus the 76ers), rebounds (6.8 rpg) and defends (1.3 bpg). The Knicks acquired him along with Precious Achiuwa in a midseason deal that sent R.J. Barrett and Immanuel Quickley to the Toronto Raptors.
Other things to consider: The Knicks were a mismanaged franchise for the better part of two decades--including seven straight losing seasons from 2014-2020--but since Leon Rose took over as team president in 2020 the Knicks have made the playoffs three out of the past four years while winning a playoff series in back to back seasons for the first time since 2000. The Knicks achieved this success while rejecting perhaps the two most popular team-building models: tanking and trying to create a "super team." Under Rose's watch, the team has had a win now mentality while also making crafty moves with an eye on the future, and Rose shrewdly avoided assembling an imbalanced roster with two or three (alleged) superstars surrounded by role players on short term low paying contracts. Rose's Knicks rely heavily on three players who won championships at Villanova--Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Donte Divencenzo--and thus proved they know how to be part of a winning program.
It is instructive to contrast how the Knicks built their roster with how the 76ers attempted--and failed--to "tank to the top." Under Sam Hinkie, the 76ers employed the infamous "Process," losing on purpose for four straight seasons in order to acquire and hoard top draft picks. Those 76ers were an unwatchable mess for their fans and a shameful eyesore for the entire league, and those years cemented a loser's mentality that the franchise has yet to overcome.
The crown jewel prize for all of that intentional losing was Joel Embiid, the third overall pick in the 2014 NBA Draft. Injuries caused Embiid to miss every game in his first two NBA seasons. He has never played more than 68 games in an NBA regular season, and he has never led the 76ers past the second round of the playoffs. Embiid's career playoff series record is 5-7, and he shot .470 or worse from the field in nine of those 12 series.
Losing on purpose is ethically wrong because it rips off the fans who pay for tickets and for TV/streaming subscriptions with the expectation of seeing the best possible product, and because it attempts to "game" a system designed to help less fortunate teams (not teams that lose by purposely mismanaging their assets). Tanking also does not work. The 76ers are in perpetual "wait for next year" excuse mode
because from the top down the franchise has veered away from building a
championship mentality and championship habits.
In contrast, the Knicks play as ferociously as a pack of fierce pit bulls who tenaciously value every possession; they are a joy to watch for any old school basketball fan. The Pacers also avoided flawed franchise building models, but they are not as gritty or defensive-minded as the Knicks. This series will be fun to watch because of the contrasting styles.
New York will defeat Indiana in six games.
Labels: Indiana Pacers, Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, New York Knicks, Pascal Siakam, Tyrese Haliburton
posted by David Friedman @ 10:43 AM
