20 Second Timeout

After Poking the Bear, Grizzlies Are Buried in the Paint by Lakers

The L.A. Lakers overpowered the Memphis Grizzlies en route to a 125-85 game six win that propelled the Lakers into the second round and sent the Grizzlies home for the summer. D'Angelo Russell had his best and most impactful performance since rejoining the Lakers, scoring a playoff career-high 31 points on 12-17 field goal shooting--but the most significant story in this game is that Anthony Davis and LeBron James dominated in the paint at both ends of the court. Davis' boxscore numbers may not look overwhelming--16 points, 14 rebounds, five blocked shots--but he pushed the Grizzlies around at both ends of the court, igniting the Lakers' offense and thwarting the Grizzlies from scoring in the paint not only by blocking shots but also by altering and discouraging shots. Meanwhile, instead of hanging out on the perimeter and stat padding while his team loses, James attacked the paint on offense and was actively engaged on defense. His numbers (22 points, six assists, five rebounds) do not reflect how dominant he was. The Lakers outscored the Grizzlies in the paint 52-32, and the Lakers won the rebounding battle 52-45. The Lakers' three point shooting was adequate (15-44, .341) but not exceptional. 

This game vividly illustrates the point that I keep making about the "transformed Lakers." The Lakers are not "transformed," at least in terms of having "lasers" and more talent than they had in the first part of the season. The only "transformation" is that Davis and James are playing every game and they are playing hard in most games. If Davis and James had done that from the start of the season, this team would never have fallen to 13th in the West.

The Grizzlies did not show up to compete. The Lakers deserve some credit for that, but the Grizzlies also deserve a lot of blame. No Memphis player scored more than 16 points. No Memphis starter shot better than .400 from the field. Kenny Smith does not show his "pictures" at halftime during blowouts, and after this game the Grizzlies do not deserve to have their individual statistics mentioned. After game two, Dillon Brooks declared that he "pokes bears" and he called LeBron James "old." Brooks' words proved to be as off the mark as his errant shot attempts. The Grizzlies would be wise to let Brooks take his big mouth and small game elsewhere.

In the first half, the Lakers outscored the Grizzlies in the paint 36-16 and went into halftime with a 59-42 lead. James scored 16 first half points, shooting 7-9 from the field--and 6-6 from inside the arc. Davis added 11 points on 4-7 field goal shooting, 10 rebounds, and three blocked shots. Russell scored 14 points--and even if he had not made a single shot, the Lakers would have still had the lead thanks to the paint dominance of James and Davis. 

The second half turned into what Marv Albert used to call "extensive garbage time"--a mop up/stat padding operation as the Grizzlies surrendered meekly. The cliche about every NBA team making a run did not apply in this game.

The Lakers have received a lot of praise regarding the three players who they acquired in exchange for Russell Westbrook. Here are their game six statistics:

D'Angelo Russell had 31 points on 12-17 field goal shooting. He averaged 16.7 ppg on .435 field goal shooting (37-85) during this series.

Jarred Vanderbilt had nine points on 3-8 field goal shooting. He averaged 7.2 ppg on .548 field goal shooting (17-31) during this series.

Malik Beasley has fallen out of the rotation. He did not play until the fourth quarter, when the game was out of hand. He finished with nine points on 2-6 field goal shooting. He averaged 4.2 ppg on .292 field goal shooting (7-24) during this series. 

The prevailing narrative is that jettisoning Westbrook in exchange for these three role players transformed the Lakers. The reality is that when James and Davis are healthy, engaged, and playing in the paint the Lakers can be good; when James and Davis are not playing in the paint, the Lakers are not very good. If anything, the main thing that the trade accomplished--whether by accident or design--is open up an opportunity for Austin Reaves, who has pushed Beasley out of the lineup and emerged as the Lakers' third best all-around player.

The Lakers will get some rest before facing the winner of Sunday's game seven battle pitting the Sacramento Kings versus the Golden State Warriors. Sacramento enjoys homecourt advantage in game seven after winning game six on the road.

Labels: Anthony Davis, D'Angelo Russell, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Memphis Grizzlies

posted by David Friedman @ 2:02 AM

15 comments

Kings Rout Warriors at Golden State, Can Advance to Second Round With Game Seven Home Win

Malik Monk (28 points, seven rebounds, and four assists) and De'Aaron Fox (26 points, game-high 11 assists, and four rebounds) powered the Sacramento Kings to a 118-99 game six road win versus the defending champion Golden State Warriors. The Kings shot just .404 from the field, but they outscored the Warriors 44-36 in the paint while also winning the rebounding battle 53-42. Keegan Murray (team-high 12 rebounds) and Domantas Sabonis (11 rebounds) combined to shoot just 8-29 from the field but their work on the boards played a major role in the win. The Warriors shot even worse than the Kings (.372), with both Splash Brothers way off of the mark: Stephen Curry scored a game-high 29 points but shot just 9-21 from the field, and Klay Thompson added 22 points on 8-20 field goal shooting. The only other Warrior to score in double figures, Andrew Wiggins, managed just 13 points on 5-13 field goal shooting.

We have been told that the Warriors' championship experience will be the decisive factor in this series, but this is not 2015 or 2018 or even 2022. This is 2023, and these Warriors went 44-38 during the regular season, including 11-30 on the road, a mark usually posted by Draft Lottery teams. Unless/until they prove otherwise, this version of the Warriors is not a great team, and if they had not barely survived a series of crunch time blunders in game four their season would be over now. The Warriors scored less than 100 points just three times in 82 regular season games, but their offense fell apart in game six when they had an opportunity to eliminate the Kings.

A victory by the home team in game seven may be a step toward curbing load management and the general decline in regular season intensity: by taking the regular season seriously, the Kings earned the right to have game seven at home.

Labels: De'Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, Golden State Warriors, Malik Monk, Sacramento Kings, Stephen Curry

posted by David Friedman @ 12:37 AM

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Boston Versus Philadelphia Preview

Eastern Conference Second Round

#2 Boston (57-25) vs. #3 Philadelphia (54-28)

Season series: Boston, 3-1

Philadelphia can win if…Joel Embiid is healthy, efficient, and productive, James Harden does not go on a "concert tour," and the 76ers' defense contains Boston's deadly duo of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown without conceding too many wide open three pointers.

A knee injury caused Embiid to miss game four of the 76ers' first round sweep of the Brooklyn Nets, and it is unclear not only when Embiid will return but how much the balky knee will limit him. This season, Embiid averaged a career-high 33.1 ppg while winning his second consecutive scoring title, but he was conspicuously less productive in his three playoff games versus the Nets (20.0 ppg, which is his playoff career-low). The Nets trapped Embiid and dared other 76ers to beat them, but the Celtics have the necessary personnel to play Embiid one on one for extended stretches. Al Horford plays well versus Embiid, and the Celtics can also use Robert Williams either as the primary matchup or as a help defender protecting the hoop. Embiid has never made it past the second round; this is the time of year when he is injured, ineffective, or both, and there is no reason to believe that he is poised to reverse that pattern.

Harden may be the worst playoff choker among perennial All-Stars in pro basketball history. He averaged 17.3 ppg while shooting .343 from the field versus the Nets in the first round even though the Nets swarmed Embiid, which created opportunities that Harden should have exploited. Harden has shot better than .450 from the field once in his past 10 playoff games, and just three times in 16 playoff games as a 76er. His performances when his team faces elimination are horrific, and he lived up--or down--to that standard in last year's game seven loss to the Miami Heat, disappearing in the second half and finishing with 11 points on 4-9 field goal shooting with four turnovers. When Harden plays in a big playoff game, it is far from certain that his made field goals will outnumber his turnovers. In Harden's two second round playoff series since he fled Houston and began playing in the Eastern Conference, he has averaged 15.2 ppg on .374 field goal shooting. This brief recitation of Harden's playoff resume is made more relevant by the fact that 76ers President of Basketball Operations Daryl Morey once insisted that Harden is a better scorer than Michael Jordan. Morey and his friends in the media often assert that his use of "advanced basketball statistics" gives him a great advantage when building a team, but the reality is that Morey had 13 years to build a championship team in Houston--far longer than most general managers are granted--and he failed. This is Morey's third season running the show in Philadelphia.

Tyrese Maxey led the 76ers in scoring during the first round (21.8 ppg) with shooting splits that Harden can only dream of achieving (.471/.500/.800). He had as many turnovers in the four game series (four) as Harden has in a typical game.

Tobias Harris had a very good series against Brooklyn (20.3 ppg, 8.8 rpg), but he faces a bigger challenge this series because he will have to deal with Tatum at both ends of the court.

Boston will win because…the Celtics are a proven championship-quality team. They made it to the NBA Finals last season, the fourth time in the past six years that they advanced at least as far as the Eastern Conference Finals.

Championships are won by big, versatile players who attack the paint on offense and defend the paint on defense. The Celtics have a whole squad of players like that, led by Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Tatum led the Celtics in scoring (27.2 ppg), rebounding (10.0 rpg), and assists (5.3 apg) during their 4-2 first round series win versus the Atlanta Hawks. Brown contributed 26.7 ppg, 5.3 rpg, and 3.0 apg in the first round. Derrick White (17.3 ppg), Marcus Smart (16.7 ppg) and 2023 Sixth Man of the Year Malcolm Brogdon (13.3 ppg) also played well in the first round. 

The Celtics are a high volume three point shooting team, but that is OK because they shoot a high percentage and because they back up their perimeter game with outstanding defense and rebounding. During the regular season, they ranked fifth in the NBA in defensive field goal percentage and seventh in rebounding.

The all-around basketball that the Celtics play contrasts dramatically with the way that many teams play, including their first round opponent. The Hawks are led by Trae Young, who often shoots three pointers from well beyond the arc--logo shots, as they are now called. Damian Lillard also loves taking logo shots. Logo shots look spectacular when they go in, but Young shot 1-13 from the field (including 0-4 from three point range) in the second half of game six versus Boston as the Hawks went down in flames. Undersized guards who play no defense and jack up a lot of three pointers may get big contracts but they will not lead teams to championships. Near the end of game six, it was comical to watch an inbounds play as Young repeatedly threw the ball off of Smart because Young is so short that he cannot see over Smart; the Hawks eventually had mercy on Young and relieved him of inbounding duties.

Other things to consider: The Celtics have only had one losing season since winning the 2008 NBA title. While the 76ers have unsuccessfully tried to tank to the top, the Celtics created and sustained a winning culture. Contrary to what many "stat gurus" insist, coaching matters, culture matters, and controlling the paint matters.  

The Celtics are a better organization from the top down than the 76ers, and the Celtics will win this series in six games.

Labels: Boston Celtics, James Harden, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers, Tyrese Maxey

posted by David Friedman @ 10:03 PM

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Inside the NBA Crew Discusses Giannis Antetokounmpo's Message About Failure

After the Miami Heat eliminated the Milwaukee Bucks in the first round, a reporter asked two-time NBA regular season MVP/2021 NBA Finals MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo if he considered this season to be a failure. Antetokounmpo's answer is, as TNT's Kenny Smith later put it, a masterclass or TED Talk:

You asked me the same question last year, Eric. Do you get a promotion every year? No, right? So, every year you work is a failure? Yes or no? No. Every year you work, you work toward something--toward a goal--which is to get a promotion, to be able to take care of your family, to be able to provide a house for them or take care of your parents. You work toward a goal. It's not a failure. It's steps to success. If you've never--I don't want to make it personal.

Michael Jordan played 15 years. Won six championships. The other nine years was a failure? That's what you're telling me? I'm asking you a question...Exactly, so why you ask me that question? It's the wrong question. There's no failure in sports. There's good days, bad days, some days you are able to be successful, some days you are not, some days it is your turn, some days it's not. That's what sports is about. You don't always win. Some other group is gonna win, and this year somebody else is gonna win. Simple as that. We’re gonna come back next year and try to be better, try to build good habits, try to play better--not have a 10 day stretch of playing bad basketball. Hopefully we can win a championship.

So, 50 years from 1971 to 2021 that we didn't win a championship, it was 50 years of failure? No, it was not. There were steps to it. And we were able to win one and hopefully we can win another one.

Sorry, I didn't want to make it personal, because you asked me the same question last year, and last year I wasn't in the right mind space to answer the question back--but I remember it.

TNT's Inside the NBA crew just had a heartfelt discussion about what Antetokounmpo said. Charles Barkley recalled that when he grew up in the projects of Leeds, Alabama he could have never imagined living the life that he has lived. He rightly considers himself to be a great success, and he refuses to be defined by not winning an NBA title. Barkley feels sorry for anyone who defines himself by what he did in sports, because sports is a very small part of life.

Shaquille O'Neal offered a different perspective. He said that he grew up with a military background, and based on that background he has a simple definition of success versus failure: if you accomplished the mission then you succeeded, and if you did not accomplish the mission then you failed. He emphasized that he is not criticizing or disrespecting Antetokounmpo and he added that failure is not necessarily a bad thing because often you must fail before you succeed. O'Neal said that as the number one overall pick in the NBA Draft he felt that his mission was to be the most dominant big man and to win a championship every year, so he is OK with being told that he was only successful during the four years that he won NBA titles.

Kenny Smith said that Antetokounmpo had given a TED Talk for adults in terms of how to think about their lives and put things in proper perspective. Smith suggested that O'Neal's definition of success versus failure is accurate but incomplete. Smith said that each person should ask himself if he took every necessary step that he was supposed to take. If you have taken every step that you were supposed to take, then you did not fail. You may be disappointed with the outcome, but that is not the same as failure. Smith said that after hearing Antetokounmpo's answer, he now understands why Antetokounmpo and Russell Westbrook play so hard every possession of every game: they know that they cannot control the outcome of the game, but they can control taking every step that they are supposed to take. 

By nature, my attitude is more like the one that O'Neal expressed: if you have the necessary talent to dominate, then every time you don't dominate is a failure. My second grade teacher, Miss Day, said that I put way more pressure on myself than anyone else did; I turned everything into a competition, and I was very driven to win every competition. Some of us are just hard-wired to be very intense, very driven, very competitive. Such people view anything less than dominance as abject failure. Think about Bill Russell winning two NCAA titles, an Olympic gold medal, and then capturing 11 NBA titles in 13 seasons. That does not just happen; that is a product of a laser focus on domination, and a deep inner belief that you can never win enough to be satisfied.

It is funny to hear O'Neal take this position on failure now, because the main thing that he and Kobe Bryant used to feud about as teammates was that Bryant did not think that O'Neal worked hard enough to be dominant; Bryant tried to destroy everybody not just in every game, but in every practice, while O'Neal may have aspired to that mentality but he did not live it in terms of work: O'Neal is not cut from the same mold as Antetokounmpo or Westbrook--or Bryant. Everyone wants to win--but few people will suffer to win. Bill Russell used to throw up before every game. Bryant played through an assortment of injuries that would sideline most current NBA players for weeks or months. People like that don't talk about how much they want to win nearly as much as they show how much they want to win through their behaviors, their habits, and their willingness to suffer to win.

As I get older, I am starting to understand that it is healthy to have a growth mindset like the one that Anteotkounmpo expressed and that such a mindset is not incompatible with being fiercely competitive. Anyone who listens to what Antetokounmpo said and concludes that Antetokounmpo is not competitive enough or does not care about winning missed the point. The key concept to grasp--as Smith noted--is that we are all responsible for taking all of the steps that we can take to get the best possible outcome. After we do that, we can accept what happened--and if we are disappointed by the outcome, then we can learn from it and do more work. Note that Antetokounmpo repeatedly mentioned the steps to the process, the building of correct habits, and doing the work so that his team can win a title next year. Of course Antetokounmpo is disappointed that the Bucks did not win the NBA title--but he does not view himself as a failure because losing is part of sports and part of life.

Antetokounmpo is remarkably mature for someone so young who is at the top of such a competitive profession. I am much older than he is, but I may not have reached that level of maturity.

In Turning Failure Into Success, I wrote, "Julius Erving endured six years of frustrating playoff setbacks before winning an NBA championship and throughout that period he stayed true to his core belief: 'I've always tried to tell myself that the work itself is the thing, that win, lose or draw, the work is really what counts. As hard as it was to make myself believe that sometimes, it was the only thing I had to cling to every year--that every game, every night, I did the best I could.'"

That is what Antetokounmpo is talking about--not accepting losing, but accepting outcomes as they happen while also learning, growing, and continuing to do everything possible to obtain better outcomes. 

Ernie Johnson and Barkley emphasized another important point: Antetokounmpo took great pains to not personally attack or insult the questioner. When Antetokounmpo said, "If you've never..." and then stopped himself, you could tell that he was about to say something about that reporter never doing something at an elite level--but then Antetokounmpo switched gears, and used Michael Jordan as an example. At the end of his answer, Antetokounmpo again emphasized that he did not want to make his answer personal. Smith noted that Antetokounmpo tried very hard to make this a teaching moment. It was beautiful to watch Antetokounmpo try to educate the reporter instead of just belittling him.

I think that Antetokounmpo provided great insight into the thought process of someone who, by virtue of hard work, intelligence, and toughness--rose from poverty to becoming the best in the world at his craft.

It will be a shame if people misunderstand or misinterpret his message.

Labels: Bill Russell, Charles Barkley, Ernie Johnson, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Inside the NBA, Julius Erving, Kenny Smith, Kobe Bryant, Shaquille O'Neal

posted by David Friedman @ 2:04 AM

16 comments

Miami Versus New York Preview

Eastern Conference Second Round

#8 Miami (44-38) vs. #5 New York (47-35)

Season series: New York, 3-1

New York can win if…Jalen Brunson continues to score 24-plus ppg while keeping his teammates involved in the offense, and if the Knicks dominate the paint the way that they dominated the paint while defeating the Cleveland Cavaliers 4-1 in the first round.

The next time Dallas owner Mark Cuban makes a presentation at the Sloan Analytics Conference, he should explain in detail which "advanced basketball statistics" and which "stat gurus" influenced his decisions to not re-sign Jalen Brunson and then trade away his team's depth and wing defense to acquire Kyrie Irving--and then we will all know which "advanced basketball statistics" not to trust, and which "stat gurus" should seek employment in other fields. Did Cuban use the same metrics to make those decisions that he used when he prematurely broke up his 2011 championship team, or does he have updated metrics that do not work to replace his malfunctioning 2011 analytics?

In his first season with the Knicks, Brunson set career highs in scoring (24.0 ppg) and assists (6.2 apg). Brunson averaged 24.0 ppg and 4.8 apg as the Knicks stunned the Cavaliers, a team that had championship aspirations after acquiring Donovan Mitchell prior to this season. R.J. Barrett (17.4 ppg) was the Knicks' second leading scorer in the first round as Julius Randle (14.4 ppg) was hobbled by an ankle injury that forced him to sit out most of the game five clincher. Josh Hart made an impact versus Cleveland not only with his scoring (11.6 ppg) but also with his rebounding (7.8 rpg, second on the team) and hustle plays.

The Knicks pushed the Cavaliers around and dominated them in the paint, but the Heat are a tougher and more playoff-tested squad that will not be so easily bullied.

Miami will win because…of "Playoff Jimmy Butler," the Heat's adequate defense and rebounding, and the questionable injury status of Randle. That may sound like less than a ringing endorsement, but the reality is that during the regular season the Heat ranked 27th in rebounding and 22nd in defensive field goal percentage. Other than a 121-99 game three win versus Milwaukee, the Heat did not exactly shut down the Bucks--but they found a way to get enough defensive stops, and if they can do that against the Bucks then it is reasonable to suggest that they can get enough defensive stops against the Knicks.

It is surprising that the Heat defeated the Bucks 4-1 in the first round, even with Giannis Antetokounmpo missing two games and most of a third game; the Heat still won the last two games of the series with Antetokounmpo playing and putting up big numbers. Thus, it would appear that--even with their depth sapped due to injuries suffered by Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo--the Heat may be one of the rare teams that actually can flip a switch when the playoffs start. I have repeatedly stated that the proverbial "team no one wants to face" usually is eliminated from the playoffs swiftly, but the Heat--who had the best record in the East last season, and who reached the 2020 NBA Finals--may be the exception to that rule.

Butler's first round scoring and shooting numbers--37.6 ppg, .597 FG%--look like typographical errors or plagiarized text from Wilt Chamberlain's biography. Butler has never averaged 24 ppg during a season--he averaged 22.9 ppg this season--but he has averaged at least 24 ppg in six of his 19 career playoff series. It is unlikely that Butler will average 37.6 ppg versus the Knicks, but there is a good chance that he will average more than 24 ppg (four of his six highest scoring playoff series happened in 2022 or 2023).

Coach Erik Spoelstra's impact should not be underestimated. He has proven himself to be not only an adept tactician but also someone who is able to connect with various kinds of personalities. His teams are consistently smart, tough, and aggressive.

Other things to consider: I did not pick either of these teams to win in the first round, so this series has placed me in unexpected territory. Neither team impressed me very much during the regular season, so I am still trying to figure out if these teams are better than I expected, if their opponents are worse than I thought, or some combination of both. 

Perhaps the Knicks are favorites on paper due to having homecourt advantage plus a heady leader who played a major role in a Conference Finals run last season (Brunson with Dallas). However, Butler has the best playoff resume of anyone in this series, and he had to go through Antetokounmpo--who I consider to be the NBA's best all-around player--to reach the second round, while the Knicks beat a Cleveland team that may not be as good as the press clippings that their players apparently took too seriously.

I expect this series to have some interesting twists and turns before Miami wins in six games.

Labels: Jalen Brunson, Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat, New York Knicks

posted by David Friedman @ 11:56 PM

2 comments

Led by Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat Stun Top Seeded Milwaukee Bucks

The Milwaukee Bucks started the playoffs on the wrong foot after Giannis Antetokounmpo injured his back in the first quarter of game one of their playoff series versus the Miami Heat, and they never regained their balance. The Heat defeated the Bucks 128-126 in overtime last night to win the series, 4-1.

In game four, Butler destroyed the Bucks with a Heat playoff single game record 56 points as Miami won, 119-114, and he followed that up with a sensational game five performance: game-high 42 points, eight rebounds, and four assists;  Gabe Vincent added 22 points, and Bam Adebayo had a triple double (20 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists). Antetokounmpo put up monster numbers (38 points, game-high 20 rebounds), but he committed a game-high seven turnovers and he shot just 10-23 from the free throw line. Khris Middleton added 33 points, six rebounds, and six assists. Jrue Holiday had a quiet game (16 points on 4-11 field goal shooting, nine rebounds, six assists), and he missed a free throw that could have put Milwaukee up by three points with 2.1 seconds remaining in regulation. Coach Mike Budenholzer heads into the offseason with his pockets stuffed with the timeouts that he failed to use at the end of regulation and the end of overtime.

The Bucks squandered several opportunities to win game five. They led 102-86 at the start of the fourth quarter, but with their season on the line they shot just 3-19 from the field (.158) in the final 12 minutes of regulation. Antetokounmpo shot 1-9 from the field and 2-5 from the free throw line in the fourth quarter. The Bucks committed five fourth quarter turnovers, including two by Antetokounmpo. The numbers outline the general scope of the Bucks' collapse, but the Bucks also made several questionable plays down the stretch. Leading 111-103 with 3:18 remaining in regulation, the Bucks missed long three pointers on two of their next four possessions. Antetokounmpo scored on a drive but failed to complete the three point play by missing the free throw. The Bucks' normally stout defense proved powerless to stop Butler.

The first round was a nightmare for the top seeded Bucks. The Heat finished seventh in the Eastern Conference during the regular season, but slipped to the eighth seed after losing a Play-In Tournament game to the Atlanta Hawks. So, after battling all season to finish first the Bucks were "rewarded" with playing a Heat team that not only finished three games ahead of the Hawks but that also has recent NBA Finals experience. It is more than a bit odd that the Heat outperformed the Hawks for 82 games but, in essence, lost a "tiebreaker" game for playoff positioning. In theory, the Play-In Tournament is supposed to make teams care more about the regular season; in practice, teams are still tanking, and playoff positioning is jumbled for no rational reason.

Question: If load management is necessary to preserve player health, why did the NBA add a Play-In Tournament to the schedule, and why is the league working on creating a midseason tournament?

Answer: The NBA cares about profits. More games means more profits, so the league does not care about star players sitting out during the regular season, teams tanking, and playoff positioning being scrambled.

The Heat are the first team to win a series after reaching the playoffs via the Play-In Tournament. They deserve full credit for peaking at the right time, and that goes double for Butler, who proved to be an acquired taste for his previous teams before fitting in perfectly in Miami. Butler is a rare player whose career playoff averages (20.9 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 4.4 apg) exceed his career regular season averages (18.2 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 4.2 apg); that could be interpreted to mean that he elevates his game in the postseason, or that he sometimes coasts during the regular season. The regular season matters not only in terms of playoff seeding, but also in terms of building the individual and collective habits that are necessary for postseason success. 

"Playoff Jimmy" may be a real thing individually, but it should be noted that collectively Butler's teams have a 9-10 record in playoff series. Here are the playoff series records of the best players on recent championship teams, plus selected retired players from my basketball Pantheon (listed in order of total playoff series wins):

LeBron James: 39-11

Magic Johnson: 33-8

Kobe Bryant: 33-10

Michael Jordan: 30-7

Julius Erving: 24-13

Larry Bird: 23-9

Kevin Durant: 22-9

Stephen Curry: 22-4

Kawhi Leonard: 19-7

Giannis Antetokounmpo: 8-7 

A losing playoff record with no championships and just one NBA Finals appearance is far from legendary level performance, but Butler is a better all-around player than many of the players who the NBA office and its media partners hype up, including but not limited to James Harden, Damian Lillard, and Trae Young. Butler deserves credit for spearheading a historic upset of a number one seeded team by an eighth seeded team that qualified for the playoffs via the Play-In Tournament, but it would be premature to reevaluate the entire arc of Butler's career based on one playoff series. For example, Hakeem Olajuwon elevated his historical status not based on one playoff series but based on leading the Houston Rockets to back to back championships.

Labels: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks

posted by David Friedman @ 9:26 PM

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Grizzlies Rout Lakers, Send Series Back to L.A. for Game Six

The L.A. Lakers barely survived at home in game four versus the Memphis Grizzlies, and they provided little resistance on the road in game five, losing 116-99. If the Lakers and their fans assume that winning game six at home is a lock then they may be in for a very unpleasant surprise, because--despite the hype and the weird narratives that ignore evidence and common sense--the Lakers are the same team that they have been throughout the season: they do not consistently play hard or smart, which is why they needed to survive the Play-In Tournament to qualify for the playoffs. 

The undersized Grizzlies--who are without the services of injured big men Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke--outscored the Lakers in the paint 56-48 while keeping the rebound battle nearly level (the Lakers won, 54-52). The 2023 NBA Defensive Player of the Year Jaren Jackson Jr. scored 18 points and tied for the team lead with 10 rebounds. Desmond Bane (33 points, 10 rebounds, five assists) and Ja Morant (31 points, 10 rebounds, seven assists) outplayed the Lakers' two 75th Anniversary Team players: Anthony Davis did his part (31 points, game-high 19 rebounds), but LeBron James finished with just 15 points on 5-17 field goal shooting, along with 10 rebounds, five assists, and a game-high five turnovers. Instead of attacking the paint, James settled for three pointers and he shot just 1-9 from beyond the arc. James is 38 years old and cannot reasonably be expected to dominate every game, but when James is having an off game his highly-touted supporting cast must pick up the slack.

The Lakers have received a lot of praise regarding the three players who they acquired in exchange for Russell Westbrook. Here is how the "tremendous trio" did versus Memphis in game five: 

D'Angelo Russell had 11 points on 4-11 field goal shooting, but he did dish out a game-high 10 assists. He is averaging 13.8 ppg on .367 field goal shooting (25-68) during this series.

Jarred Vanderbilt had seven points on 3-4 field goal shooting. He is averaging 6.8 ppg on .609 field goal shooting (14-23) during this series.

Malik Beasley had six points on 2-6 field goal shooting. He is averaging 3.2 ppg on .278 field goal shooting (5-18) in during this series. 

Russell is an erratic, inconsistent offensive player who is a subpar defensive player. Vanderbilt is a scrappy defender whose offensive game mainly consists of picking up loose change in the paint. Beasley is barely in the rotation; in this game, he posted a plus/minus number of -23 in just 11 minutes. 

The Lakers offered little defensive resistance in the first quarter, and they trailed 38-24 at the end of the first 12 minutes. As is often the case, the tone set in the first quarter presaged how the rest of the game would unfold. 

Game six will be fascinating. The Lakers are consistently inconsistent, while the Grizzlies are young, impetuous and volatile. Will LeBron James have the necessary energy--and mindset--to attack the paint? Will Anthony Davis be a force in the paint? Will any of the highly touted role players acquired in exchange for Russell Westbrook have a meaningful impact? Will the undermanned and undersized Grizzlies scrap their way to a win and reclaim homecourt advantage?

Labels: Anthony Davis, Desmond Bane, Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Memphis Grizzlies

posted by David Friedman @ 1:23 AM

4 comments

Denver Versus Phoenix Preview

Western Conference Second Round

#1 Denver (53-29) vs. #4 Phoenix (45-37)

Season series: Tied, 2-2

Phoenix can win if…Kevin Durant is the best player in the series, Devin Booker averages more than 25 ppg, and Deandre Ayton scores efficiently while racking up double doubles. Chris Paul is the fourth option now and he is only expected to carry a fraction of the load that he shouldered during his prime, but the Suns need for him to stay healthy and not wear down, both of which have been issues throughout his playoff career.

During the Suns' 4-1 first round win versus the L.A. Clippers, Booker scored 37.2 ppg while shooting .602 from the field. That is by far the best playoff series performance of his career, as he had never previously averaged 30 ppg in a playoff series, and he had only once shot at least .500 from the field in a playoff series.

Durant averaged 28.4 ppg, 7.6 rpg, and 6.2 apg during the first round with shooting splits of .518/.458/.956. That is not too shabby for the second option! Of course, Durant is the first option, but the point is that when opposing teams tilt their defense toward him that gives Booker room to go wild.

Field goal attempts are sparse at times for Ayton, but he played well against the Clippers, averaging 16.0 ppg and 11.2 rpg while shooting .530 from the field. 

Paul had pedestrian numbers by his standards in the first round (13.6 ppg, 8.2 apg, and 6.0 rpg with shooting splits of .414/.348/.500) but the main thing that the Suns need from him is to just stay healthy enough to play 35-40 mpg so that they do not have to rely on their thin bench too often.

Denver will win because…Nikola Jokic is the reigning two-time regular season MVP, and he has an excellent, underrated supporting cast. Jokic averaged 26.2 ppg, 12.4 rpg, and 9.0 apg as the Nuggets beat the Minnesota Timberwolves 4-1 in the first round. Those numbers mirror his outstanding regular season production: 24.5 ppg, 11.8 rpg, 9.8 apg. Jokic ranked second in the league in rebounding, third in assists, and 18th in scoring.

Jamal Murray led the Nuggets in scoring in the first round (27.2 ppg) while also contributing 6.4 apg and 5.6 rpg. Four Nuggets other than Jokic and Murray scored at least 10.4 ppg in the first round: Michael Porter Jr. (16.4 ppg), Aaron Gordon (13.4 ppg), Bruce Brown (11.4 ppg), and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (10.4 ppg).

The Nuggets' starters match up well enough with the Suns' starters, but some of the key moments in this series could happen when both teams go to their benches; I would expect the Nuggets to win those minutes, which could persuade Phoenix Coach Monty Williams to shorten his rotation, which could result in his starters becoming worn down or injured.

The Nuggets somehow managed to fly under the radar despite finishing with the best record in the Western Conference before dispatching the Timberwolves without much trouble. It is difficult to think of another top seeded team at full strength that has been so lightly regarded.

Other things to consider: Denver reached the Western Conference Finals in 2020 before battling injuries in the next two seasons. Now, the Nuggets are healthy, and they have a roster that is both deeper and more talented than their 2020 roster.

The Suns have tremendous firepower at the top of their roster, but they traded away much of their depth to acquire Durant. The Suns also lack quality size other than Ayton and Durant. Lack of depth and lack of size add up to a team that can be worn down over the course of a seven game series. Three of the Suns' starters--Booker, Durant, and Paul--each averaged at least 38.5 mpg during the first round, with Booker and Durant each averaging more than 43 mpg. I wish no ill toward any of their players, but realistically it is just a matter of time before one or more of the Suns' starters either wears down or gets injured. Booker, Durant, and Paul have all been injury-prone in recent seasons even without carrying the workload that they are currently shouldering.

Due to injuries, the Clippers lacked the necessary talent and depth to keep pace with the Suns, but the top seeded Nuggets are well-equipped to challenge the Suns.

Labels: Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, Denver Nuggets, Devin Booker, Jamal Murray, Kevin Durant, Nikola Jokic, Phoenix Suns

posted by David Friedman @ 11:56 PM

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Knicks Eliminate Cavaliers in Cleveland

The Cleveland Cavaliers' slogan this season is "Let Em Know."

After losing 4-1 in the first round to the fifth seeded New York Knicks, the Cavaliers let everyone know: they are not ready for prime time.

The Cavaliers sought to establish themselves as a team that can challenge Boston and Milwaukee for Eastern Conference supremacy, but they were unable to even win two games against a New York team that no one would consider to be a legitimate championship contender.

Jalen Brunson led the Knicks with 23 points in game five, but he shot just 8-22 from the field. I almost fell out of my chair when TNT's Charles Barkley equated Brunson's performance in this series with the playoff performances of Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant. Brunson is an excellent player but, to borrow one of Barkley's favorite quips, the only thing that he has in common with Jordan and Bryant is that all three are Black.

The Knicks won this game in the paint, where most playoff games are won. They outrebounded the Cavaliers 48-30 while outscoring them in the paint 44-34. The Knicks had 20 second chance points compared to just three second chance points for the Cavaliers. This looked like a "1, 2, 3, Cancun" performance by the Cavaliers, who were pushed around and embarrassed on their home court. The Knicks led by seven points by the end of the first quarter, pushed the margin as high as 18, and never trailed.

I am not going to talk crazily like Barkley and compare Mitchell Robinson (13 points, game-high 18 rebounds, three blocked shots, two steals) to Willis Reed, but I will note that he had as many rebounds in game five as Cleveland's three starting frontcourt players (Jarrett Allen, Evan Mobley, Caris LeVert) combined. 

The Knicks won despite getting just 16 minutes from Julius Randle (13 points, six assists, four rebounds) before he suffered a sprained ankle that caused him to miss the rest of the game.

Donovan Mitchell scored a game-high 28 points, but he shot just 11-26 from the field. The Cavaliers acquired Mitchell to be a playoff superstar, someone who is without question the best player on the court--not someone who is productive but who, at best, played Brunson to a draw over the course of the series.

Labels: Cleveland Cavaliers, Donovan Mitchell, Jalen Brunson, Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson, New York Knicks

posted by David Friedman @ 10:41 PM

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Suns Outlast Valiant but Shorthanded Clippers, Advance to Second Round Showdown Versus Nuggets

Devin Booker scored a game-high 47 points on 19-27 field goal shooting while also passing for a game-high 10 assists and grabbing eight rebounds to lead the Phoenix Suns to a 136-130 victory versus the L.A. Clippers. Kevin Durant added 31 points, six rebounds, and four assists, while Deandre Ayton had 21 points plus a game-high 11 rebounds. The Suns won this first round series 4-1, and will face the Denver Nuggets--who eliminated the Minnesota Timberwolves, 4-1--in the second round. I will provide in depth analysis of the both the Nuggets and the Suns in my series preview article, so the remainder of this article will focus on the Clippers.

The Clippers were without the services of injured stars Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, two players who load managed their way through the regular season to preserve themselves for the playoffs only to be unavailable when it mattered the most. L.A. Clippers Coach Tyronn Lue offered this succinct comment during his postgame press conference: "Take the two best players off any team in the league and see if they can win in the playoffs."

Norman Powell led the Clippers with 27 points. Mason Plumlee added 20 points off of the bench, and he tied Ivica Zubac for team-high honors with 10 rebounds. Russell Westbrook paced the Clippers with eight assists and he snared eight rebounds, but he scored just 14 points on 3-18 field goal shooting. 

It is difficult to beat a team featuring a trio scoring 99 points on 38-64 field goal shooting (.594), but the shorthanded Clippers never gave up despite trailing by as many as 20 points in the fourth quarter. The Clippers outscored the Suns 36-18 in a little over eight minutes to cut the lead to 130-128 with 2:46 remaining in the contest. The Clippers had several opportunities to tie the score or take the lead, but they just could not get over the hump.

Westbrook was the only Clippers' starter who played all 12 fourth quarter minutes, contributing four assists while committing one turnover; he scored two points on 1-4 field goal shooting, but his energy and passing fueled the comeback. It is easy to nitpick his shooting percentage and his shot selection--and there is no doubt that many commentators will spend a lot of time doing that--but if you watched this game, this series, and this season with understanding then you know that Westbrook is still an excellent player who can make a significant contribution to a winning program. After the game, Coach Lue praised Westbrook for saving the Clippers' season and enabling them to make this playoff run. Paul George has publicly stated that he wants the Clippers to bring Westbrook back next season.

It is not contradictory or illogical to state that the Clippers would have benefited from Westbrook shooting a better field goal percentage while also acknowledging that without Westbrook's other contributions the Clippers would not have been competitive at all in this game, let alone in this series.

Long-time readers who are familiar with my critiques of James Harden's annual playoff collapses may wonder how Westbrook's poor shooting in an elimination game is different than James Harden's playoff "concert tour" shooting percentages. That is easy--Harden's playoff choking is about more than just missing shots (although he misses plenty of shots); he also often plays in a disinterested, detached, and unenergetic manner, which is the exact opposite of how Westbrook plays. There is a big difference between missing shots while playing hard versus missing shots while going through the motions.

Again, it is fair to say that Westbrook should be expected to shoot a better percentage than he did in game five, but Westbrook's shooting must be placed in the overall context of his performance during this series--including the fact that, as Coach Lue stated, the Clippers had no realistic chance to prevail with both of their top two players out of the lineup.

Not too long ago, the L.A. Lakers and their media sycophants tried very hard to destroy Westbrook's reputation and end his career. It is great that he escaped from the Lakers and proved that he can still play at a high level. 

Labels: Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, L.A. Clippers, load management, Norman Powell, Phoenix Suns, Russell Westbrook

posted by David Friedman @ 2:33 AM

17 comments

LeBron's 20-20 Vision Lifts Lakers to Overtime Win, 3-1 Series Lead Versus Grizzlies

LeBron James scored 22 points, grabbed a playoff career-high 20 rebounds, and passed for seven assists to lead the L.A. Lakers to a 117-111 overtime win versus the Memphis Grizzlies to take a 3-1 series lead. Austin Reaves paced the Lakers with 23 points, picking up the slack for Anthony Davis, who scored 12 points on 4-13 field goal shooting. Davis had as many turnovers as field goals, but he made his presence felt in the paint with 11 rebounds and four blocked shots.

Desmond Bane scored a game-high 36 points but he shot 13-29 from the field, including 3-12 from three point range as the teams combined to miss 59 three point shots. Ja Morant scored 19 points and tied James for game-high honors with seven assists, but he shot 8-24 from the field.

The Grizzlies squandered a golden opportunity to win this game; they led 83-81 at the end of the third quarter, and they pushed that margin to 97-90 with 5:13 remaining in regulation, but their erratic shooting proved fatal. The Grizzlies shot 7-18 from the field (.389) in the fourth quarter, including 2-11 from players not named Bane. Bane scored 14 fourth quarter points on 5-7 field goal shooting, including a fast break layup with 6.7 seconds remaining to put the Grizzlies up, 104-102. The Grizzlies needed one defensive stop to win the game, but instead of settling for a long jump shot James drove to the hoop and made a high arcing layup with less than a second left to tie the score.

In overtime, the Lakers stopped jacking up three pointers and scored eight points on 4-5 field goal shooting in the paint while the Grizzlies shot just 3-9 from the field overall in the extra session, including 1-5 from beyond the arc. Other game recaps will no doubt wax poetic about D'Angelo Russell's three fourth quarter three pointers without mentioning that he had a -16 plus/minus number before fouling out; the absence of Russell's questionable shot selection and subpar defense helped the Lakers in overtime, and it would be intellectually dishonest to mention three shots that he made without noting that his other "contributions" were major reasons why the Lakers were trailing in the first place.

Four of the nine Lakers who played in this game had negative plus/minus numbers: Davis plus the three players acquired in exchange for Russell Westbrook. The Lakers won this game and are leading this series despite the Westbrook trade, not because of it. Coach Darvin Ham understands this, regardless of what some commentators may say and what some delusional fans believe: D'Angelo Russell, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Malik Beasley did not play at all in the overtime. Granted, Russell probably would have played if he had not fouled out--and the Lakers would have been worse off with Russell in the game.

Here is how the "triumphant troika" did versus Memphis in game four: 

Russell had 17 points on 7-15 field goal shooting. He is averaging 14.5 ppg on .368 field goal shooting during this series.

Vanderbilt had 15 points on 6-9 field goal shooting while accumulating a game-worst -18 plus/minus number. He is averaging 6.8 ppg on .579 field goal shooting during this series.

Beasley had three points on 1-4 field goal shooting. He is averaging 2.5 ppg on .250 field goal shooting in during this series.

Playoff games are won in the paint. James dominated the boards, and during crunch time he drove to the hoop instead of settling for three pointers; he looked less like a stat padder and more like a great player who was doing what needed to be done for his team to win. Davis was a non-factor offensively, but the importance of his presence in the paint defensively and on the boards should not be minimized. 

I picked the Grizzlies to win this series, and I may have been wrong about that--but I have been 100% right about what the Lakers need to do to win: they need James and Davis to dominate in the paint. All of the talk about "lasers" and the role players that the Lakers acquired in exchange for a future Hall of Famer are just distractions from the real story.

Labels: Anthony Davis, Ja Morant, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Memphis Grizzlies

posted by David Friedman @ 2:42 AM

2 comments

Butler's Record Setting Performance Spoils Antetokounmpo's Return, Lifts Heat to 3-1 Lead Over Bucks

Jimmy Butler scored a Miami Heat playoff single game record 56 points as the Heat overcame the return of Giannis Antetokounmpo to beat the Milwaukee Bucks 119-114 and take a 3-1 lead in their first round playoff series. Butler, who also set his personal single game career high (regular season and playoffs), shot 19-28 from the field (including 3-8 from three point range) and 15-18 from the free throw line while grabbing nine rebounds and committing just one turnover. He poured in 22 first quarter points to keep the Heat within striking distance, and then he scored 21 fourth quarter points to lead a spirited Heat comeback. Only three other Heat players scored in double figures: Bam Adebayo (15 points), Caleb Martin (12 points), and Gabe Vincent (10 points).

The Miami Heat have had some great players and some great individual performances. LeBron James' masterful games during the Heat's back to back championship runs in 2012 and 2013, and Dwayne Wade's sensational games in the 2006 NBA Finals are the most significant individual games in franchise history. However, in terms of single game excellence an argument could be made that Butler just authored the greatest playoff game in franchise history, scoring nearly half of his team's points to lead an eighth seeded team missing its third leading scorer (the injured Tyler Herro, who averaged 20.1 ppg during the regular season) to a win against the top seeded team that is now at full strength.

Brook Lopez scored a team-high and playoff career-high 36 points, helping the Bucks to outscore the Heat 54-40 in the paint. Antetokounmpo had a triple double (26 points, 13 assists, 10 rebounds) as he returned to action after missing games two and three (and most of game one) due to a bruised back, but he committed six turnovers and he seemed to wear down in the fourth quarter, when he managed just three points on 1-4 field goal shooting while grabbing no rebounds.

The undersized Heat outrebounded the Bucks 47-46. Without the benefit of extra possessions, it became imperative for the Bucks to shoot a high percentage--but they shot just .433 from the field.

The Bucks led by as many as 15 points and seemed to be on the verge of tying this series at 2-2 before playing game five at home, but Butler saved the day for the Heat in the fourth quarter. The Bucks enjoyed a 98-85 lead after Lopez' dunk on an Antetokounmpo feed with 8:56 remaining in regulation. Butler checked back into the game at the 8:11 mark, and scored 21 of the Heat's final 27 points.

No Play-In Tournament team has ever won a playoff series, but the Heat now have three opportunities to win one game, eliminate the number one overall seeded Bucks, and advance to the second round.

Labels: Brook Lopez, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks

posted by David Friedman @ 1:38 AM

2 comments

Warriors Survive Late Blunders to Beat Kings, Tie Series at 2-2

The Golden State Warriors beat the Sacramento Kings 126-125 to tie their first round playoff series at 2-2 and set up a climactic game five at Sacramento. Game five winners in a 2-2 NBA playoff series win the series 81.9% of the time. 

Stephen Curry led the Warriors with 32 points, Klay Thompson added 26 points, and Jordan Poole--starting in place of Draymond Green--scored 22 points. The Warriors won game three without the suspended Green, and Green voluntarily ceded his starting role--at least for one game--to Poole, who performed well as a starter during Green's absence. Green scored 12 points on abysmal 3-14 field goal shooting, but he contributed to the win with his strong defense plus 10 rebounds and a team-high seven assists. 

It was interesting to see Curry and Green celebrate this win on the court as if they had just won an NBA title. Curry and Green have each won four NBA championships, so a first round home win should not be a big deal to them.

De'Aaron Fox scored a game-high 38 points, led the Kings with nine rebounds, and dished for five assists. Keegan Murray added 23 points and seven rebounds, Malik Monk scored 16 points but shot just 5-14 from the field, and Domantas Sabonis contributed 14 points, seven rebounds, and a game-high eight assists.

In the past week, the Kings have received formal recognition for their excellent season. Fox won the Jerry West NBA Clutch Player of the Year Award. Fox is an explosive scorer who also rebounds and passes well, and he shows all of the signs of being a superstar in the making. After averaging 25.0 ppg, 6.1 apg, and 4.2 rpg during the regular season, he is averaging 31.5 ppg, 7.0 apg, and 6.0 rpg in the playoffs.

Also, Mike Brown won his second Red Auerbach Coach of the Year Award. Brown, who previously won the award in 2009 while coaching the Cleveland Cavaliers, received all 100 media votes this time, becoming the first unanimous winner. Brown is an outstanding coach who has previously been unfairly criticized by media members who do not understand much about NBA coaching. It is surprising but refreshing that all of the media voters selected Brown for this much-deserved honor.

This series is often portrayed as a contrast between an inexperienced squad (the Kings) and an experienced squad (the Warriors)--but in game four the Warriors were fortunate to survive late game blunders that one might not expect to see from the reigning NBA champions. In a back and forth game featuring 19 lead changes during which the Kings led by as many as nine points and the Warriors led by as many as 10 points, the outcome hung in the balance when Curry called a timeout with 42.4 seconds remaining in regulation and the Warriors leading, 126-121. The Warriors had just expended their last timeout on a failed coach's challenge, so Curry's mistake resulted in the Kings receiving a free throw attempt and possession of the ball. Monk drained the free throw, and then Fox hit a three pointer after the Kings rebounded Harrison Barnes' missed three pointer. Then, with a chance to run down the clock and force the Kings to foul, Curry missed a runner in the lane. The Kings rebounded the miss, called timeout with 10.5 seconds left, and now had a great opportunity to win the game. During the ensuing possession, the Warriors trapped Fox, content to let any of his teammates take the clutch shot. Barnes missed a three pointer as time expired.

It is understandable that the outcome of each game shapes the short-term narrative, but anyone watching this series without knowing the relative experience levels of both teams would have trouble discerning which team is comprised of supposedly poised veterans and which team is comprised of supposedly frazzled young players. Both teams play at a fast pace and, consequently, make some mistakes, but if Barnes had made the last shot in game four then the narrative would focus on how Curry and the Warriors blew a five point lead in the final minute; the fact that the Warriors narrowly survived does not magically transform them into a very poised team compared to the Kings, who in fact showed much poise to stay in contention until the final buzzer sounded.

Over the course of the entire season, the Kings were the more composed, more poised, and more consistent team. That is why the Kings enjoy homecourt advantage in this series. The Kings won the first two games of this series at home, and they do not have to win a road game to advance; the Warriors, who went 11-30 on the road during the regular season, must win at least one road game to reach the second round.

Labels: De'Aaron Fox, Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors, Sacramento Kings, Stephen Curry

posted by David Friedman @ 1:22 PM

2 comments

Knicks Take 3-1 Series Lead as Mitchell and Cavaliers Struggle to Score

Fueled by Jalen Brunson's scoring/playmaking plus stout team defense, the New York Knicks defeated the Cleveland Cavaliers 102-93 to take a 3-1 series lead. Brunson scored a game-high 29 points on 11-22 field goal shooting, and he dished for a team-high six assists. R.J. Barrett added 26 points, and Josh Hart contributed 19 points plus seven rebounds. All-Star Julius Randle struggled mightily, finishing with just seven points on 3-10 field goal shooting plus two rebounds after being benched for the entire fourth quarter. 

Darius Garland led the Cavaliers with 23 points and a game-high 10 assists, but the Cavaliers failed to score 100 points for the second time in a row in this series and the third time in four games after exceeding the 100 point barrier in 74 out of their 82 regular season games; the Cavaliers went 2-6 during the regular season when scoring less than 100 points, and they are 0-3 in this playoff series when scoring less than 100 points. All five Cleveland starters scored in double figures, but All-Star Donovan Mitchell had just 11 points on 5-18 field goal shooting along with five assists and a game-high six turnovers.

Last summer, the Cavaliers and the Knicks each acquired a guard to be a spark plug for their respective offenses. 

During the regular season, Brunson set career-highs in scoring (24.0 ppg) and assists (6.2 apg) while shooting .491 from the field, including .416 from three point range. Through four games in this series, Brunson is averaging 24.3 ppg and 5.0 apg while shooting .457 from the field, including .280 from three point range. 

During the regular season, Mitchell set a career-high in scoring (28.3 ppg), and he averaged 4.4 apg while shooting .484 from the field, including .386 from three point range. Through four games in this series, Mitchell is averaging 22.0 ppg and 7.8 apg while shooting .436 from the field, including .303 from three point range.

Brunson and Mitchell are posting comparable numbers during this series, but Brunson has been more consistent and more efficient while maintaining his regular season level, while Mitchell has been less productive than he was during the regular season. Also, Mitchell ranks seventh in ABA/NBA history in playoff career scoring average--trailing only Michael Jordan, Luka Doncic, Allen Iverson, Kevin Durant, Jerry West, and LeBron James--but his scoring has dropped by 6 ppg in this series.

The Cavaliers are unlikely to win this series if Jalen Brunson plays Donovan Mitchell to a draw; that is a matchup that, with all due respect to Brunson's excellence, Mitchell is expected to win. 

It is also interesting to observe the different philosophies of each coaching staff. Tom Thibodeau benched Randle after Randle was ineffective for three quarters, while J.B. Bickerstaff played Mitchell for nine fourth quarter minutes despite Mitchell's poor performance throughout the game. In general, during this series the Knicks seem to be better coached and to display more game plan discipline at both ends of the court. For example, the Cavaliers repeatedly permit left-handed players to drive left-handed to the hoop without shading those players to the right or cutting off their driving lanes to force a pass or a jump shot. The Cavaliers also suffer through scoring droughts without running actions to create easy scoring opportunities for Garland, Mitchell, or the team's big men Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley.

The Cavaliers' energy level is not as high as one would expect for a playoff series; in game four, the Knicks outrebounded the Cavaliers 47-33. It is the players' responsibility to bring energy, but there are some coaches who are better than others at inspiring their players to be energetic. One would expect a matchup between the fourth seed and the fifth seed to be competitive, but the fifth seeded Knicks are having their way with the Cavaliers even though--on paper--the Cavaliers look like the more talented and deeper team. Unless the Cavaliers become more focused while bringing a lot more energy and then sustaining that energy for three straight games, the Knicks will soon be advancing to the second round.

Labels: Cleveland Cavaliers, Donovan Mitchell, Jalen Brunson, Julius Randle, New York Knicks

posted by David Friedman @ 1:01 AM

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Lakers Dominate the Paint, Cruise to 111-101 Victory Over Grizzlies

The L.A. Lakers bounced back from a listless game two loss against the shorthanded Memphis Grizzlies by playing with "discipline and focus"--as Jalen Rose aptly put it--that they have rarely demonstrated in recent seasons, tying an NBA playoff record by building a 26 point lead by the end of the first quarter before coasting to a 111-101 win. Anthony Davis led the Lakers in scoring and rebounding (31 points, 17 rebounds), while LeBron James added 25 points, nine rebounds, and five assists. Ja Morant returned to action in style for Memphis after missing game two with a hand injury, exploding for 45 points, 13 assists, and nine rebounds.

The Lakers outscored the Grizzlies 58-42 in the paint, including 22-4 in that 35-9 first quarter explosion. People who don't understand basketball--or are pushing a narrative at variance with reality--insist that the Lakers need a lot of outside shooting in order to contend for a championship. Note that the Lakers shot 2-7 (.286) from three point range during their dominant first quarter, and just 7-28 (.250) from beyond the arc in the game. James attempted four shots from beyond the arc in 36 minutes. The last time that James attempted four or fewer three pointers in a playoff game is game one of the 2020 NBA Finals. Since that time, James' Lakers have posted a 7-7 playoff record as James far too often settled for long range shots instead of attacking the paint.

The 2020 Lakers won the NBA title while ranking 23rd in the league in three pointers attempted and 21st in the league in three point field goal percentage. 

There is no other way to put this: the notion that the Lakers' success is dependent on three point shooting is idiotic. 

The two significant stories from this game are (1) the Lakers won because they dominated the paint for the first 12 minutes, and (2) in the final 36 minutes the Grizzlies outscored the Lakers in the paint 38-36. The NBA is often a first quarter league, not a fourth quarter league, and this game was a perfect example: the Grizzlies outplayed the Lakers for 36 minutes, but the Lakers' huge first quarter advantage was too much to overcome.

In short, the Lakers can be very good when their two members of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team attack the paint--but those two players have repeatedly demonstrated that they are only willing and able to attack the paint selectively. That is why the Lakers have been mediocre or worse since winning the 2020 "Bubble" title.

Of course, the two significant stories are unlikely to receive much mainstream media coverage. The mainstream media coverage will focus on Memphis forward Dillon Brooks. After game two, Brooks boasted--in reference to the trash talk he directed at LeBron James--"I poke bears." I checked Brooks' resume, and this is what I found: no All-NBA selections, no All-Star selections, no All-Defensive Team selections, no 20 ppg seasons, career .416 field goal percentage, never advanced past the second round of the playoffs. 

Brooks does not poke bears; he has spent his brief career being stomped by bears. It is legitimate to debate where James ranks in pro basketball's Pantheon of the greatest players of all-time, but there is no question that Brooks is a basketball nobody compared to James.

Brooks scored seven points on 3-13 field goal shooting in this game before earning an ejection for poking James below the belt. Brooks joined the growing list of players who have delivered cheap shots to opponents during the 2023 playoffs: Draymond Green was ejected and then suspended for a game after stomping on Domantas Sabonis, Joel Embiid received a flagrant foul but was spared ejection after kicking Nic Claxton below the belt, and then Embiid's teammate James Harden received an ejection but no suspension after hitting Royce O'Neale in the groin. Harden displayed his usual level of self-awareness when he said with a straight face that he did not think that he had committed an infraction at all, let alone one worthy of ejection; apparently, Harden is so used to illegally pushing off to get open that he just takes for granted that he has the right hit opponents anywhere at any time.

Brooks should be suspended one game for his cheap shot on James. Considering the way that sports leagues merge analytics with various camera angles, I have a proposal for dealing with the cheap shot artists: figure out the speed and power of the blows that they delivered to their opponents, and then stipulate that a properly calibrated robot will deliver an identical blow to them in the same body part before they are permitted to return to action. 

I have played basketball my whole life, and I have never struck another player in the groin, intentionally or accidentally. I have accidentally hit players on the arms, chest, and even top of the head while trying to block shots; those are normal basketball plays that can happen, because those are the body parts that are usually in closest proximity to a basketball that is being shot, passed, rebounded, or caught. I do not have a fraction of the athletic ability of any NBA player, but somehow I manage to control my limbs better than they do, which is interesting (I also do not fall down with the frequency that Anthony Davis and Joel Embiid do, but that is another story).

Switching from groin shots to missed shots, let's check in on the "triumphant trio": media members heap praise on the three players who the Lakers acquired for the much-maligned Westbrook, so let's look how those players did versus Memphis in game three. 

D'Angelo Russell had 17 points on 5-14 field goal shooting, plus seven assists. He is averaging 13.7 ppg on .333 field goal shooting in the first three games of this series. Russell's 42 points in three games barely exceeds the 37 points (on 17-29 field goal shooting) that Westbrook scored for his shorthanded L.A. Clippers in game four versus the Phoenix Suns.

Jarred Vanderbilt had zero points on 0-1 field goal shooting. He is averaging 4.0 ppg on .500 field goal shooting in the first three games of this series.

Malik Beasley had zero points on 0-2 field goal shooting. He is averaging 2.3 ppg on .286 field goal shooting in the first two games of this series. 

I am not sure what is worse: the collective productivity and efficiency of these three players, or the fact that there are commentators who are paid a lot of money to insist that these three role players can make a better contribution to a winning program than Westbrook. 

LeBron James' p.r. team in the mainstream media will work overtime declaring that he made a "statement" in this game. James explicitly told Dave "Vampire" McMenamin that with his resume he does not have to make statements, which I predict will be spun as James demonstrating his great modesty and ability to rise above the fray. The reality is that James and the Lakers rightly took umbrage at Brooks' absurd remarks, and the Lakers were so inspired that they played hard for 12 minutes out of 48, which is about par for the course for these Lakers. During the telecast, ESPN noted the high number of uncontested shots that the Grizzlies missed during the first quarter; it has become a cliche for players to insist "It was not great defense; we just missed shots" but to a large extent that was true in the first quarter; the Grizzlies missed a lot of open shots, and the Lakers played with great purpose on offense in the first quarter, taking advantage of all of Memphis' misses.

After all is said and done--and a lot is sure to be said about the Lakers' magnificent 12 minutes and how those minutes validate James' greatness--sober-minded people will remember that the next game starts with a 0-0 score, and the Grizzlies can reclaim homecourt advantage with a win.

Labels: Anthony Davis, Dillon Brooks, Ja Morant, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Memphis Grizzlies

posted by David Friedman @ 2:38 AM

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