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Saturday, October 03, 2020

Davis and James Dominate as Lakers Take 2-0 Lead

Game two of the NBA Finals looked like a five on five version of an older, bigger brother dominating his younger, smaller brother in a backyard or a driveway. Anthony Davis and LeBron James combined for 65 points and 23 rebounds as the L.A. Lakers won 124-114 over the Miami Heat to take a 2-0 lead. The Lakers outrebounded the Heat 44-37, and the Lakers grabbed 16 offensive rebounds. The Lakers shot .505 from the field overall, including .660 on two point field goals--and most of those two point field goals were attempted in the paint as the Lakers shredded the Heat's zone defense. The Lakers scored nearly every time that they attacked the middle of the zone or crept in on the baseline, causing the Heat to collapse their defense in the paint and resulting in the Lakers setting a Finals single game record by attempting 47 three pointers. Unlike the Houston Rockets, the Lakers set up their three pointers by attacking the paint, as opposed to just jacking up long range shots regardless of what the defense is doing.

Davis finished with 32 points and 14 rebounds while shooting 15-20 from the field; he had eight offensive rebounds, and he made 14 of his first 16 field goal attempts. Davis is the fifth player to score at least 30 points in each of his first two NBA Finals games, joining Hal Greer (1967), Rick Barry (1967), Michael Jordan (1991), and Kevin Durant (2012). James had 32 points, nine rebounds, nine assists, and no turnovers; he shot 14-25 from the field.

While Davis and James led the way, the contributions of the Lakers' other two likely future Hall of Famers should not be overlooked. Rajon Rondo scored 16 points on 5-9 field goal shooting, and he led the Lakers with 10 assists. Dwight Howard started at center, and he set the tone early with six quick points in the paint on 3-3 field goal shooting.

The Heat were without the services of two starters: All-Star center Bam Adebayo, and former All-Star guard Goran Dragic. ABC commentators Jeff Van Gundy and Mark Jackson correctly pointed out moments and situations when the Heat could have played harder or hustled more--and Udonis Haslem delivered that message with great emphasis during a third quarter timeout--but the brutal reality is that size combined with talent/athleticism can wear a team down not only physically but also mentally. ESPN's Richard Jefferson suggested that the Heat played hard enough and well enough that they likely would have won if Adebayo had been available; the Heat just did not have enough size or enough depth to contend with the Lakers.

Jimmy Butler led the Heat with 25 points and 13 assists. He also had eight rebounds while playing 45 minutes. He matched James play for play, and the only criticism that one could make is that perhaps Butler should have looked for his shot more often as opposed to driving with the intent to pass--but Butler has never been a 30 ppg scorer or a player who regularly explodes for 40 or 50 points, so it is not in his nature to play that way. Butler's ability to lift his teammates to another level is very evident, and explains why his previous teams improved when he arrived only to regress after he left. We are learning a lot not only about Butler, but also about his previous teammates who he criticized and/or who criticized him: I would take Butler all day any day over any of those guys, even though several of them are bigger and/or more athletically gifted. As Mike Singletary once said, "I want winners."

Prior to the game, ESPN's Rachel Nichols asked Butler how his ankle--which he injured in game one--feels, and he replied, "Nobody cares." Butler refused to make excuses or change his expectations for team success. After the game, Heat Coach Erik Spoelstra delivered a similar message, stating that in life if you want something badly enough then you figure out what you have to do to get it. There are players who will say that they do not make excuses, but then those same players will tell you in detail about their injuries; LeBron James has done that throughout his career, dating all the way back to his mysterious elbow injury that did not stop him from shooting half court shots during pre-game warmups in the 2010 Eastern Conference semifinals.

Kelly Olynyk filled in admirably for Adebayo, coming off the bench to score 24 points and snare nine rebounds in 37 minutes. Tyler Herro bounced back from a subpar game one to score 17 points and grab seven rebounds. The Heat dusted off rookie Kendrick Nunn--a major contributor during the regular season who fell out of the playoff rotation prior to Dragic's injury--and he added 13 points. However, the Heat just do not have enough talent or depth to beat the Lakers without Adebayo and Dragic.

The Lakers attacked the paint from the start of the game, and the Heat had no answers. The Lakers led by as much as 17 points in the first half, and they were up 68-54 at halftime. The Lakers shot .565 from the field in the first half, including 17-20 (.850) on two point shots. Those shooting percentages look like Bill Walton's in the 1973 NCAA Championship Game or Villanova's in the 1985 NCAA Championship Game, not like anything one would expect to see in the NBA Finals. In the first half the Lakers also set the Finals record for most three pointers attempted in a half (27). Most Lakers' possessions ended with Davis or James playing bully ball in the paint, or someone attempting a wide open three pointer.

The Lakers maintained a double digit lead for most of the second half, though the Heat cut the margin to 100-91 late in the third quarter after Herro sank a pair of free throws. This game was more competitive than game one but at no time did the outcome of the game appear to be in doubt. 

If Adebayo can return for game three and supply paint presence at both ends of the court, then perhaps the Heat still have a chance to make this a series. Otherwise, the Lakers will cruise to a sweep and the only question will be whether the media select Davis or James as the Finals MVP.

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posted by David Friedman @ 1:37 AM

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Thursday, October 01, 2020

Lakers Overcome Slow Start, Rout Heat in Game One

The Miami Heat raced to a 23-10 lead over the L.A.Lakers in game one of the NBA Finals, but the Lakers tied the score at 28 just before the end of the first quarter, led 65-48 at halftime and were never threatened the rest of the way en route to a 116-98 win. Anthony Davis dominated at both ends of the court, finishing with a game-high 34 points on 11-21 field goal shooting plus nine rebounds, five assists, and three blocked shots. He led both teams with a +23 plus/minus number. Davis matched Elgin Baylor for the third most points scored by a Laker in his Finals debut, trailing only Shaquille O'Neal (43 points) and George Mikan (42 points). 

LeBron James started the game slowly--he scored just nine points on 2-6 field goal shooting in the first half--but he padded his numbers in the second half during what Marv Albert would call "extensive garbage time," finishing with 25 points on 9-17 field goal shooting, a game-high 13 rebounds, and nine assists. He had a +10 plus/minus number, but plus/minus numbers can be skewed by garbage time and it is worth noting that James' first half plus/minus number was +4 despite his team leading by 17; for all practical purposes, the outcome was decided in the first half, when Davis had a +19 plus/minus number, and four other Lakers had plus/minus numbers of at least +18: Alex Caruso (+20), Rajon Rondo (+20), and Kyle Kuzma (+18). The main stories in the first half were (1) the Heat could not match up with Davis and (2) the Lakers' bench destroyed the Heat's bench. In the first half, Miami reserves had stunningly bad plus/minus numbers, including Tyler Herro (-30) and Andre Iguodala (-27). The Lakers took over the game after James sat out for his normal first quarter rest, they extended the margin after James returned, and they never looked back.

The Lakers started one of their bigger lineups with Davis (6-10), Dwight Howard (6-10), and James (6-9) in the frontcourt, so it is not surprising that the Lakers outrebounded the Heat 54-36--but the Lakers also set a franchise record for most three pointers made in an NBA Finals game (15). Other than the first few minutes--and not counting anything that happened in garbage time--it is difficult to think of anything that the Heat did well on a consistent basis.

Jimmy Butler was the only player from the Heat's regular rotation who played well, contributing a team-high 23 points on 8-13 field goal shooting plus five assists. Butler was hobbled by a left ankle injury but he still played 33 minutes. Bam Adebayo struggled (eight points on 2-8 field goal shooting, four rebounds in 21 minutes) before leaving the game due to a shoulder injury. Goran Dragic scored six points on 3-8 field goal shooting in 15 minutes before suffering a foot injury that caused him to miss the second half. Kendrick Nunn--who may not have played at all had the game been close and had Dragic not been injured--piled up 18 points in garbage time, and Herro finished with 14 points on 6-18 field goal shooting along with a -35 plus/minus number.

NBA Finals history contains many examples of teams losing game one but winning the series; this has happened at least once in each of the past five decades, with some prominent examples including Portland (1977), L.A. Lakers (1985), Chicago (1991), Miami (2006), and Dallas (2011). However, in this series the Heat face an uphill battle for several reasons: (1) the Lakers have not only the two best players but also the deeper bench, (2) the Heat seemed to have no answers even at full strength during the first half, and (3) it is not clear when/if Adebayo and/or Dragic will return to action.

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posted by David Friedman @ 2:52 AM

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Tuesday, September 29, 2020

L.A. Lakers Versus Miami Preview

NBA Finals

L.A. Lakers (52-19) vs. Miami (33-29)

Season series: L.A., 2-0

Miami can win if…Jimmy Butler is the best player on the court down the stretch, Bam Adebayo controls the paint, and some combination of Goran Dragic/Tyler Herro/Duncan Robinson stretches the Lakers' defense with effective three point shooting.

Butler has developed a propensity for starting games slowly only to take over down the stretch. He claims that this is by design--he gets his teammates involved early before serving as the late game closer--but it would be surprising if this proves to be a recipe for championship success. While it is true that some great players prefer to ease into the flow of the game, Butler often takes this to the extreme, resulting in Miami falling behind by double digits. Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant were two of the deadliest closers in pro basketball history, but they did not make a habit of being virtually invisible on offense during the first three quarters. Butler is second on the team in playoff scoring (20.7 ppg), tied for second in playoff rebounding (5.7 rpg), third in playoff assists (4.5 apg) and first in playoff steals (1.9 spg). He averaged 19.0 ppg (fourth on the team), 6.0 rpg (third on the team), 5.0 apg (second on the team), and 1.7 spg (first on the team) during Miami's six game win over the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals. He must be a consistent and productive scorer--that means stringing together 20 point games, as opposed to scoring 30 followed by 10--while also making an impact defensively, particularly when he is matched up with LeBron James.

Adebayo has been a tremendous all-around force during the playoffs, ranking third on the team in playoff scoring (18.5 ppg), first in playoff rebounding (11.4 rpg), first in playoff assists (4.9 apg), second in playoff steals (1.2 spg), and first in playoff blocked shots (.9 bpg). He was at his best in the Eastern Conference Finals, leading the team in scoring (21.8 ppg), rebounding (11.0 rpg), assists (5.2 apg), and steals (1.7 spg) while ranking second in blocked shots (1.0 bpg). He will be matched up with Anthony Davis, and he has the necessary skill set plus the correct mentality to challenge Davis at both ends of the court. Adebayo's playmaking ability forces the defense to protect not only against his drives and his rolls to the hoop, but also against his passing.

Dragic is leading the Heat in playoff scoring (20.9 ppg) while shooting .452 from the field (including .363 from beyond the arc) and .814 from the free throw line. He ranks second on the team in playoff assists (4.7 apg). He has thrived as the third best player, taking advantage of the attention opposing teams must pay to All-Stars Butler and Adebayo. 

Herro ranks fourth on the team in playoff scoring (16.5 ppg), including a 37 point explosion in a game four Eastern Conference Finals win, setting the record for most points by a rookie in a Conference Finals game. Thanks in part to Miami's 3-2 defense that lifts the wings and positions the guards closer to the basket, he ranks fourth on the team in playoff rebounding (5.5 rpg), including second on the team in rebounding (6.3 rpg) versus the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Robinson led Miami with 20 three point field goals made versus Boston while shooting .408 from long range. He is not the consistent scorer or all-around impact player that Butler, Adebayo, Dragic, and Herro are, but his outside shooting could prove to be critical versus L.A.

Another key for Miami will be Andre Iguodala's defense versus LeBron James. Iguodala has already won a Finals MVP (2015) based largely on his ability to at least slow down James, and he has consistently shown that he guards James at least as well as any other player in recent memory.

L.A. will win because…the Lakers have the more talented, deeper roster, starting with two of the top five players in the league. LeBron James had yet another MVP caliber regular season, while Anthony Davis also played at an MVP level and was a contender for the Defensive Player of the Year award.

James ranks second on the Lakers in playoff scoring (26.7 ppg) while shooting .547 from the field (including .349 from beyond the arc) and .741 from the free throw line. James leads the Lakers in playoff rebounding (10.3 rpg) and playoff assists (8.9 apg) while also averaging 1.3 spg and 1.0 bpg. James averaged 27.0 ppg, 10.4 rpg, and 9.0 apg versus Denver, ranking second, first, and first on the team in those categories. It is remarkable that James continues to play at such a high level as a 35 year old in his 17th NBA season.

Davis is leading the Lakers in playoff scoring (28.8 ppg) while shooting .571 from the field (including .366 from beyond the arc) and .810 from the free throw line. Davis is also averaging 9.3 rpg, 3.6 apg, 1.2 bpg, and 1.2 spg. Davis led the Lakers in scoring (31.2 ppg) in a five game win over the Denver Nuggets in the Western Conference Finals, but he posted subpar rebounding (6.2 rpg) and shot blocking (.6 bpg) numbers during that series; there is no excuse for a player with his size and athletic ability to average less than at least 9-10 rpg and at least 1.5-2.0 bpg. Nevertheless, Davis--when properly focused--has no skill set weaknesses: he can score from inside, outside, and the free throw line, he is capable of being a dominant rebounder, he is an above average passer, and he is an elite defender.

As is often the case, many media members are pretending that James' supporting cast is not very strong. Don't buy that nonsense. First, the Lakers clearly have the two best players in this series, and that is typically the decisive factor in a playoff series. Second, their supporting cast includes one certain Hall of Famer (Dwight Howard) and one serious Hall of Fame candidate (Rajon Rondo)--and, unlike some Hall of Famers on previous championship contenders (I won't name names here), they are not just along for the ride hoping to pick up a championship ring while others do the heavy lifting: Howard has been a force in the paint, while Rondo's leadership, playmaking, and defense have been vital. The Lakers also have a potential future All-Star (Kyle Kuzma), a "3 and D" player with championship experience (Danny Green), and other solid role players.

Other things to consider: This is LeBron James' 10th NBA Finals appearance but the first time that he has faced one of his former teams on the sport's biggest stage. After James left Miami to rejoin the Cleveland Cavaliers, Pat Riley declared that the Heat would no longer have to deal with  "smiling faces with hidden agendas." Riley had one particular smiling face in mind, and it is not a mystery that James was that smiling face. This matchup is deeply personal for both men, regardless of what either may say publicly now.

After failing to win a championship during his first stint in Cleveland, James learned how to win as a member of Riley's Heat. James led the Heat to two titles, and then picked up a third title after going back to Cleveland. During his long Finals career, James has lost as a favorite (2011) and won as an underdog (2016) but he long ago stated the standard by which he should be measured: he never considers his team to be an underdog because he ranks himself as the best player on the planet. By the standard that James has set for himself, a 3-6 NBA Finals record is disappointing, to say the least. Further, there is no rational excuse for James' Lakers to not win this series. James is healthy and at the top of his game. Davis is an elite player entering his prime. The Heat do not have a top 10 player--let alone a top five player--while the Lakers have two top five players. It could be argued that James' legacy is already written, but that would only be true if he had retired; he kept playing, and he kept playing at a high level, so if he fails to win the title and drops to 3-7 in the NBA Finals that reinforces the notion that James is lacking something that Bill Russell (11-1 in the NBA Finals), Michael Jordan (6-0), Kobe Bryant (5-2), and other Pantheon players possessed. That is the standard that James set for himself, and it is the standard to which players of his caliber should be held.

This is also a "legacy" series for Davis. Perhaps he will advance to the NBA Finals many more times, but nothing is promised. This is is first opportunity to show what he can do in the NBA Finals, and such opportunities should be cherished and embraced.

No Heat player has put together a Hall of Fame caliber resume yet, but the player who has the most to gain is Butler. Many media members painted him as a malcontent after his stints in Chicago, Minnesota, and Philadelphia, but Butler is making a strong case that he was not the problem in those situations; those teams have suffered in his absence, while he and the Heat have been a perfect match. If Butler can lead the Heat to a title versus the James-Davis duo then that will permanently elevate his status. Butler is not as big or talented as James or Davis, but James has a losing Finals record against several All-Stars who are not as big or talented, so the possibility of an upset cannot be discounted.

Regardless of the outcome, the Heat should be commended for the mentality that they embrace: under Riley's leadership, the Heat have never tanked and they have never made excuses. Daryl Morey, Sam Hinkie, and other "stat gurus" who have been lauded in the media despite never winning anything of consequence should carefully study how Riley runs an organization.

The Heat have enough talent and the right mentality to challenge the Lakers. If the Heat provide that challenge, then it will be interesting to see how the Lakers respond.

I predict that the Lakers will win in six games.

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posted by David Friedman @ 12:26 AM

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