Celtics Beat Heat in Game Five After Never Trailing
Four Celtics scored at least 21 points each as Boston never trailed en route to a 110-97 game five victory over the Miami Heat that did not feel nearly as close as the final score may suggest. Derrick White scored a game-high 24 points on 8-11 field goal shooting, Marcus Smart had 23 points plus five steals, and Jaylen Brown added 21 points, but the game's MVP was Jayson Tatum, who finished with 21 points, a game-high 11 assists, and eight rebounds. Tatum attacked the paint to score, and dished to open shooters when the defense collapsed on him. The Celtics' combination of a suffocating defense that scored 27 points off of turnovers with an offense that produced 16-39 shooting (.410) from three point range overwhelmed the Heat.
Duncan Robinson scored 18 points in 28 minutes off of the bench to lead a Heat offense that shot well (.513 field goal percentage) but squandered too many possessions and only attempted 10 free throws. Bam Adebayo added 16 points but he committed a game-high six turnovers as the Celtics' size and athleticism clearly affected him. Jimmy Butler had an efficient game--14 points on 5-10 field goal shooting, five rebounds, five assists, two turnovers--but the Heat need for him to more aggressively seek out shot opportunities; the Heat do not have enough talent to beat an elite team without their best player scoring at least 20-25 points or having a significant impact on the game in some other way.
The Celtics raced to an 18-5 lead by the 6:01 mark of the first quarter, and they led by double digits the rest of the way, which is unusual in a league in which almost every team makes a run. By the end of the first quarter, the Celtics were up 35-20 as Tatum (12) and White (11) combined to score more points than the Heat's entire team. The Celtics committed no turnovers, and they converted six Heat turnovers into 10 points.
The Heat played better in the second quarter, but still lost the stanza 26-24 to trail 61-44 at halftime. The Celtics already had four double figure scorers, but Robinson (10 points) was the Heat's only double figure scorer. Butler had eight points on 2-7 field goal shooting, and both teams know that the Heat are not going to win--let alone come back from a 17 point deficit--with Butler not aggressively looking for his shot.
The third quarter featured spectacular shooting--.765 by Miami, .667 by Boston--but the Celtics outscored the Heat 29-28 to push their lead to 90-72. In the fourth quarter, the Heat kept their powder dry to get ready for game six, as two starters did not play at all (Bam Adebayo and Max Strus) while Butler logged two scoreless minutes. The Celtics played 11 different players in the final stanza, but Tatum and Brown did not sit for good until the 3:20 mark, when the Celtics were ahead 107-88.
What has changed since Miami took a 3-0 lead, and can Boston keep winning? TNT's Charles Barkley made an excellent point after the game: if both teams play their best in the same game then the Celtics will win. The Heat played better than the Celtics in the first three games of the series, but in the last two games the Celtics have hit their stride and the Heat have not been able to keep pace. Three point shooting is a high variance enterprise for any player or team, but the Celtics' smothering defense is sustainable if the team commits to putting forth effort at that end of the court--and that defense leads to easy scoring opportunities in transition. When the Celtics wreak havoc defensively the Heat not only struggle to score, but they often lack the necessary time and floor balance to set up their halfcourt defense.
Saying that game six in Miami is equivalent to a game seven scenario for the Heat is a cliche, but many cliches contain at least a grain of truth. The Heat are capable of winning game six at home to close out this series, but if the Heat fail to do that then it is difficult to picture the Heat beating the Celtics in game seven in Boston.
I picked the Celtics to win this series in part because I expected the Celtics to exploit the Heat's mediocre offense and lack of size, and those two Heat weaknesses/Celtic strengths have been very evident in games four and five after not being consistent themes in the first three games.
Labels: Boston Celtics, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat
posted by David Friedman @ 2:31 AM
Celtics Come Alive in Second Half of Game Four, Avoid Being Swept by Heat
The Boston Celtics trailed 61-52 early in the third quarter of game four at Miami, and it looked like they were less than 24 minutes away from being swept--but Boston led 81-71 after a 29-10 run in the next seven minutes, as the Celtics won 116-99 to save their season and force the Heat to travel to Boston to play game five. Jayson Tatum scored a game-high 33 points--including 25 in the second half--while also leading both teams with 11 rebounds and seven assists. Tatum shot 14-22 from the field, including 11-15 in the second half. Jaylen Brown had a solid game (17 points on 7-16 field goal shooting, four rebounds, four assists), and four other Celtics scored between 11 and 16 points: Derrick White (16), Grant Williams (14), Al Horford (12), and Marcus Smart (11).
Jimmy Butler led the Heat in both scoring (29 points) and rebounding (nine rebounds), but he shot 9-21 from the field, including 1-5 in the fourth quarter when he scored just five points. The Heat won the rebounding battle 44-39, but shot just 34-78 (.436) from the field, including 8-32 (.250) from three point range. The Heat committed 16 turnovers resulting in 27 Boston points, while the Celtics had 10 turnovers resulting in 14 Miami points. Although the final numbers illustrate succinctly how the Celtics were more efficient overall and how the Celtics won the possession game, for the first 26 minutes or so the Heat had the upper hand and looked very much like a team capable of finishing off the Celtics: in the first half, the Heat outshot the Celtics .526 to .450 while committing seven turnovers compared to the Celtics' eight turnovers. On multiple possessions, Heat players made straight line drives to the hoop without encountering any resistance, while the Celtics struggled to generate high percentage shots.
What changed? The "experts" will no doubt talk about "adjustments" but--as Lakers' Coach Darvin Ham mentioned regarding the Western Conference Finals and as Jeff Van Gundy has noted for many years--most often the best "adjustment" is nothing more complicated than playing harder at both ends of the court. Instead of jacking up low percentage, rushed shots, the Celtics attacked the paint to create open three point shots. The Celtics rely heavily on three point shooting--ranking second in three point field goals made and attempted, and sixth in three point field goal percentage--but perimeter shooting will not take a team very far unless it is supported by a foundation of tough defense at one end of the court and strong paint attacks at the other end of the court.
It is sad that with the Eastern Conference Finals still being contested there are Boston media members calling for first year Boston Coach Joe Mazzulla to be fired. The 34 year old Mazzulla is the NBA's youngest head coach, Tatum is 25 years old, and Brown is 26 years old; it is more than a little premature to write off any of those guys, regardless of the outcome of this series. Even if one insists that Mazzulla is being outmaneuvered by Heat Coach Erik Spoelstra, it should be remembered that Spoelstra is a two-time championship winning coach while Mazzulla took over the Celtics with no opportunity to run a full training camp or even hire his own staff. Whatever Mazzulla's stamp on this team will be, he has not yet had the chance to make it--but by leading the Celtics to a 57-25 record and two playoff series wins already he deserves to be afforded some time to prove what he can do.
No NBA team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit, and the Celtics are still a long way from becoming the first team to accomplish this feat--but game four at least showed a blueprint for how the Celtics could do this: Eliminate careless turnovers, exercise good shot selection, and play with high energy on defense. Those three bullet points may sound obvious, but what matters for this series is that (1) the Celtics failed to do those three things on a consistent basis in the first three games and (2) the Celtics demonstrated in game four that doing those three things is well within their capabilities. Most teams that trail 3-0 are fundamentally inferior to their opponents, but that is not the case here; there is no unsolvable matchup problem that the Heat pose for the Celtics, so the series boils down to mental toughness and game plan discipline. The Heat are smart, tough, and well-coached, but the Celtics did not have to do anything incredible or unsustainable to win game four, so the formula that worked once could work again.
Labels: Boston Celtics, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat
posted by David Friedman @ 2:20 AM
Nuggets Survive LeBron James' First Half Scoring Outburst to Sweep L.A. Lakers and Advance to the NBA Finals
The L.A. Lakers had the hype--about the players who they acquired during the season, and about their star players who have led the Lakers past the first round once since winning the 2020 "bubble" title--but the Denver Nuggets delivered the substance, completing a 4-0 sweep of the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals with a 113-111 win at Los Angeles. Nikola Jokic led the way with a team-high 30 points on 11-24 field goal shooting while also grabbing a game-high 14 rebounds and passing for a game-high 13 assists. When the Nuggets outscored the Lakers 36-16 in the third quarter to take the lead, Jokic had 13 points and 10 rebounds.
Jokic's eighth triple double during the 2023 playoffs broke Wilt Chamberlain's record for most triple doubles in one postseason. Jokic averaged 27.8 ppg, 14.5 rpg, and 11.8 apg in the Western
Conference Finals with shooting splits of .506/.471/.778. He became the second player to average a triple double in multiple playoff series in the same postseason, joining Chamberlain, who accomplished the feat during the Philadelphia 76ers' 1967 championship season. Jokic was an easy choice for the second annual Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP.
Jamal Murray had another strong performance (25 points on 10-18 field goal shooting, plus five assists), and Aaron Gordon added 22 points on 9-14 field goal shooting. All five Nuggets starters played at least 39 minutes as Coach Michael Malone used only two bench players (Bruce Brown and Jeff Green).
ESPN's Tim Legler made a great point after game four: the Nuggets' consistent commitment to running the floor and attacking the paint is a key factor for their success. Legler showed a play in which Jokic ran the floor and attracted the attention of multiple Laker defenders, opening up scoring opportunities for the Nuggets even though Jokic never touched the ball during the sequence. Running hard without expectation of scoring or getting an assist is a demonstration of complete unselfishness that sets a great example for the rest of the team. Legler noted that even though Jokic may not be the fastest runner, Jokic's determination to transition from defense to offense as quickly as possible is just as impactful as having sprinter's speed.
LeBron James scored a game-high 40 points on 15-25 field goal shooting while also snaring 10 rebounds and passing for nine assists. He played all but four seconds of the game. James tied his playoff career-high with 21 first quarter points on 7-9 field goal shooting en route
to scoring 31 first half points, a playoff career-high that is just two
points shy of Elgin Baylor's franchise record. The Lakers led 34-28 after the first quarter, and they were up 73-58 at halftime. The 38 year old James had little left in the second half, scoring just nine points on 4-12 field goal shooting. James is one of the greatest players of all-time; what he did in the first half would be amazing for any player, and scoring 40 points in a playoff game is impressive at any age--but if we judge James by his role and his status instead of grading on a curve based on age, then he is not immune from the same criticisms that any star player/number one option would receive after scoring three points on 1-6 field goal shooting in the fourth quarter of an elimination game.
James' three point shooting has been awful for most of this postseason, but he hit 4-7 from three point range in game four. The problem with James shooting a high volume of three point shots is that James does not consistently command the defensive pressure on the perimeter that Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant did; defenders had to closely guard Jordan and Bryant not so much because Jordan and Bryant were elite three point shooters but because Jordan and Bryant knew how to attack sagging defenses with midrange shots, as well as how to take up space by driving at sagging defenses with a full head of steam. When James camps out behind the three point line, opposing teams are happy to live with the results of one defender putting his hand up; in other words, a James three point shot does not threaten the defense and does not open up opportunities for his teammates the way that a James drive does.
Anthony Davis contributed 21 points on 6-15 field goal shooting, a game-high 14 rebounds (tied with Jokic), and three blocked shots. He played well at times, but not quite well enough. The Lakers are at their best when James and Davis live in the paint at both ends of the court.
The Lakers traded future Hall of Famer Russell Westbrook for the "tremendous trio" of D'Angelo Russell, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Malik Beasley. For game four, Coach Darvin Ham removed Russell from the starting lineup, and limited him to 15 minutes of playing time, during which Russell scored four points on 2-4 field goal shooting. The Nuggets targeted Russell's defense more often than a bullseye is targeted at a shooting range. Ham not only removed Vanderbilt from the starting lineup, but he did not play him at all in game four. Beasley also did not play at all. I wrote at the time of the trade that shipping out Westbrook for those three players did not improve the Lakers' playoff chances, and Ham's lineup choices make it obvious that he agrees with my assessment of the limitations of those three players.
What about the Lakers' strong record down the stretch, and their two playoff series wins? To the extent that the Lakers improved at all, that improvement was caused not by the subtraction of Westbrook or the addition of the "tremendous trio" but rather by the increased availability and focus of James and Davis. Once James and Davis began playing regularly and regularly attacking the paint at both ends of the court, the Lakers played better. Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura also played very well down the stretch. It should be noted that as the season drew to a close the Lakers feasted on weak competition, with wins against Dallas, Orlando, Toronto, Chicago, Houston, Utah (twice), Minnesota (twice, including an overtime win in the Play-In Tournament), and Phoenix sans Kevin Durant (twice).
It was obvious that as soon as the Lakers faced a legitimate playoff team they would lose; my only mistakes regarding the "new look Lakers" were that I believed that the Memphis Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors were legitimate playoff teams with enough juice to expose the Lakers and relegate the "tremendous trio" to irrelevance.
During his postgame press conference, James hinted that he may retire now, and he noted that the Lakers' roster is not set, a point that his ESPN mouthpiece Dave "Vampire" McMenamin emphasized after telling the world that not only did he and James discuss these matters while they walked out of the arena together but also that he (the Vampire) talked about James' possible retirement with a source close to James. This is part of the endless Lakers melodrama centering around James, with the predictable next chapter being that James holds the Lakers hostage with vague retirement threats until they again remake the roster according to his whims. It will be interesting to see if the latest object of James' desire is Kyrie Irving, James Harden, or someone else.
While the "experts" talked about how brilliantly the Lakers were rebuilt on the fly--with three players who contributed nothing as the Nuggets swept the Lakers--the way that the Nuggets intelligently built their roster and formed their culture went unnoticed and unappreciated. Jokic is a no-nonsense superstar who plays the right way, who builds his teammates up, and who has no agenda other than team success. It is not at all surprising that a team built around him has zero drama, and has a host of players maximizing their potential, while the Lakers have featured two members of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team since 2020 and have nothing to show for that collection of talent other than one "bubble" title.
The Lakers had the hype, but the Nuggets proved what those who understand basketball knew all along: Jokic is the best player in the NBA, and the Nuggets are an elite team that is not going to lose a playoff series to an overrated team like the Lakers.
Labels: Anthony Davis, Denver Nuggets, Jamal Murray, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Nikola Jokic
posted by David Friedman @ 3:44 AM
Heat Embarrass Celtics, Move Within One Win of Reaching the NBA Finals
Gabe Vincent scored a game-high 29 points on 11-14 field goal shooting as the Miami Heat shot .568 from the field, held the Boston Celtics to .398 field goal shooting, and won game three of the Eastern Conference Finals 128-102 to push the defending Eastern Conference champion Celtics to the brink of elimination. Duncan Robinson, who was out of the rotation earlier in the season, scored 22 points off the bench in 23 minutes, and Caleb Martin had 18 points off of the bench; no Celtic--starter or reserve--scored more than 14 points. The Heat won in dominating fashion even though Jimmy Butler had a down
night as a scorer (16 points on 5-13 field goal shooting). Butler
contributed eight rebounds and six assists. Many teams talk about not
caring who does the scoring and who gets the credit, but the Heat embody
that way of thinking and acting; through the first three quarters, six Miami players had scored between 10 and 18 points. It is worth noting that Vincent scored 11 of his points in the fourth quarter when the outcome was not in doubt, and Robinson scored 12 fourth quarter points.
Jayson Tatum (14 points on 6-18 field goal shooting) and Jaylen Brown (12 points on 6-17 field goal shooting) did not make their presence felt at either end of the court. The Celtics' offense was frenetic and undisciplined, with players chucking up low percentage shots from all angles, and the Celtics' defense was as ineffective as a bulletproof vest made out of tissue paper. The Celtics grabbed 21 offensive rebounds, but made little out of those second chance opportunities, scoring 19 points on 7-20 field goal shooting.
Brown described the Celtics' performance as "embarrassing" and he is right. Boston Coach Joe Mazzulla said that he is to blame for not making sure that the Celtics were ready to play. It is not clear if that is a motivational ploy or if that is his sincere belief, but a coach may want to be careful about taking too much public responsibility for losses; I believe that it was former NBA Coach Sam Mitchell who mentioned that if a coach does that too often then the team's owner will begin to wonder, "Why am I paying this guy so much to coach the team if he is the main person responsible for our failures?"
The Celtics' theme for the 2023 season is "Unfinished Business" but they are one loss away from needing to print t-shirts with the slogan "Unfinished Business, Part II." During the Celtics' five trips to the Eastern Conference Finals in the past seven years, they demonstrated the ability to bounce back after falling behind in playoff series, but this series versus the Heat looks and feels much different. The Celtics can talk all they want about games one and two being winnable games during which they had double digit leads, but a team that is trailing 3-0 after suffering a 26 point game three drubbing that felt like a 50 point loss cannot plausibly suggest that this series has been close.
The Heat have demonstrated that they are the superior team between the lines, regardless of how things may look on paper, and that is very surprising. After losing 4-2 to the L.A. Lakers in the 2020 "bubble" NBA Finals, the Heat were swept by the Milwaukee Bucks in the first round of the 2021 playoffs, and then lost to the Celtics in seven games in the 2022 Eastern Conference Finals before posting the seventh best record in the Eastern Conference in 2023. It is not clear what to make of the 2020 "bubble" playoff results; one could argue that doing well in the postseason during those unusual circumstances was more difficult than making a deep postseason run during a normal year, but one could also argue that a postseason without travel (after the teams arrived in the "bubble") and without the adversity presented by playing in front of opposing fans was a postseason that was less challenging than usual (or at least provided less of an advantage to the top seeded teams). Some commentators have noted that the four remaining teams in the 2023 playoffs are the same four teams that reached the Eastern and Western Conference Finals in 2020, but with three years separating those postseasons that seems more like a coincidence than a validation of the 2020 results. Two of the four teams have different head coaches now, and all four teams have experienced changes in their main rotations and in the roles performed by their top seven or eight players.
No NBA team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit, so when the Heat officially eliminate the Celtics the narrative construction game will begin (or, to be precise, it will accelerate). This series will likely be portrayed more as an epic failure by the Celtics than as a great success by the Heat, but that assessment feels wrong, or at least incomplete. While it is fair to point out ways that the Celtics could have played better (particularly in game three), the focus should be on giving credit to the Heat for overcoming injuries to key rotation players (Tyler Herro, Victor Oladipo) and for developing a team-first culture that enables the whole to be greater than the sum of the parts.
Labels: Boston Celtics, Gabe Vincent, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat
posted by David Friedman @ 2:43 AM
Murray Dominates Early, Jokic Dominates Late as Nuggets Beat Lakers to Take 3-0 Lead
Jamal Murray scored 30 of his game-high 37 points in the first half, and then Nikola Jokic scored 15 of his 24 points in the fourth quarter as the Denver Nuggets' one-two punch knocked out the L.A. Lakers 119-108 in Los Angeles to take a 3-0 lead in the Western Conference Finals. The Nuggets will go for the sweep--and their first Finals appearance since they lost 4-2 to the New York Nets in the 1976 ABA Finals--on Monday night in Los Angeles. Murray shot 15-29 from the field, grabbed seven rebounds, dished for six assists, and had a game-best +18 plus/minus number. Plus/minus numbers can be noisy in small sample sizes, but in this instance plus/minus provides an accurate approximation of Murray's outsize impact on this game's outcome. Murray is a three level scorer who uses his speed, quickness, athleticism, and shooting touch to his advantage; his 53 points over a three quarter span from the end of game two through the first two quarters of game three are the most by a player in the past 25 postseasons.
Jokic had an average game by his lofty two-time MVP standards (9-19 field goal shooting, team-high eight assists, six rebounds), but his presence--known as "gravity" only when applied to Stephen Curry--impacts opposing defenses, which is reflected in his +15 plus/minus number (second only to Murray, and six points better than any other player). Jokic was anything but average when this game was up for grabs, dominating whoever the Lakers sent his way. Whatever the Lakers allegedly "figured out" while losing game one is something that they have managed to replicate by also losing games two and three; the Lakers have not stopped Jokic, and they clearly have no answer for Murray. Former Laker Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (17 points), Bruce Brown (15 points, five rebounds, five assists), and Michael Porter Jr. (14 points) also had strong performances.
Anthony Davis had a very good game (team-high 28 points on 11-18 field goal shooting, game-high 17 rebounds), but he fell silent in the fourth quarter (two points on 1-3 field goal shooting) when this game--and, most likely, this series--was decided. LeBron James finished with 23 points, a game-high 12 assists, and seven rebounds. He shot 8-19 from the field, including 3-9 from three point range. A ratio of nine three point field goal attempts to seven free throw attempts for James is not a winning formula for the Lakers. The Lakers need for James to attack the hoop. James hit back to back three pointers near the end of the third quarter to pull the Lakers within 83-82--and that was one of the best things that happened for the Nuggets, because James then shot 1-4 from three point range in the fourth quarter, scoring seven points on 2-6 field goal shooting. Anything that encourages James to abandon the paint in favor of camping out behind the three point line is great for the Nuggets and bad for the Lakers.
Austin Reaves added 23 points, seven rebounds, and five assists. Rui Hachimura, the secret weapon that the Lakers "found" in game one, had 13 points on 5-12 field goal shooting, but he provided a quote that summarized what those who understand basketball knew before this series began: "They're just bigger than us. They can shoot over us."
The Lakers used to have a 6-3 future Hall of Famer who plays bigger than his size, rebounds in traffic and then pushes the ball up the court to create easy baskets for himself and his teammates. He is big enough and athletic enough that he could at least take away Murray's post up game, and he is aggressive enough offensively that he would require Murray to use some energy on defense. Of course, the Lakers brilliantly replaced Russell Westbrook with a "tremendous trio" that had an epic performance in this must win home game--epically bad, that is: D'Angelo Russell scored three points on 1-8 field goal shooting in 20 minutes while compiling a -12 plus/minus number that indicates why he played just three fourth quarter minutes, Jarred Vanderbilt scored two points in just under 14 minutes while compiling a -10 plus minus number that indicates why he did not play in the fourth quarter, and Malik Beasley did not score in the one fourth quarter minute he played after the Lakers threw in the towel. Hey, the Lakers swapped Westbrook for two starters, so it must have been a great trade! Just ignore the fact that the two starters played their way out of the fourth quarter rotation while combining to make only two field goals for the entire game.
The most amazing thing about the Westbrook trade is that there are still people who will peddle the narrative that the Lakers improved themselves by getting rid of Westbrook in exchange for three players who can provide nothing of value in a playoff series against an elite team.
Just wait until James retires, because this core unit of Davis, Reaves, Hachimura, and the "tremendous trio" is poised to set the league on fire--if you like dumpster fires!
The Nuggets have been underrated--if not flat out ignored--by many commentators throughout the regular season and the first two rounds of the playoffs. Before the season began, I picked the Nuggets to finish sixth in the Western Conference and said that their ceiling is the Western Conference Finals--but before the playoffs began I considered a season's worth of evidence and predicted that the Nuggets would reach the NBA Finals. Jokic is an all-time great, healthy Murray is an All-NBA caliber guard, the supporting cast is better than many people are willing to admit, and Michael Malone is a very good coach who knows how to accentuate his players' strengths while minimizing the impact of their weaknesses. It should not surprise anyone that this Denver team is beating an L.A. team that sleepwalked through the regular season, scapegoated Westbrook for problems caused by the frequent absences (and frequent reluctance to play in the paint) of Davis and James, and then traded Westbrook for some spare parts that cannot help in a playoff series against an elite team. It will be fascinating to see if Davis and James quit in game four, or if they try to extend this series to game five in Denver--but if the Nuggets are at the top of their game, the effort level of Davis and James may not matter.
Labels: Anthony Davis, Denver Nuggets, Jamal Murray, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Nikola Jokic
posted by David Friedman @ 1:59 AM
