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Saturday, May 14, 2022
Warriors Outrebound, Outshoot, and Outlast Grizzlies to Advance to the Western Conference Finals
Small ball and three point shooting may grab the headlines, but when push comes to shove--literally--size matters in the NBA. After being pushed around, outrebounded, and embarrassed by the Memphis Grizzlies in game five the Golden State Warriors responded by going big and outrebounding the Grizzlies 70-44 en route to a 110-96 victory. Acting head coach Mike Brown--who is taking Steve Kerr's place while Kerr is in COVID-19 health and safety protocols--inserted Kevon Looney in the starting lineup. Looney grabbed a game-high 22 rebounds--including 11 in the first quarter, matching Memphis' total--to nullify Memphis' advantage in size/physicality. Draymond Green had 15 rebounds, and Andrew Wiggins added 11 rebounds. Steven Adams led Memphis with 10 rebounds and he had the best plus/minus number among the team's starters (-6) but he was outnumbered in the paint.
The Warriors were sloppy with the ball (17 turnovers) and they shot just .394 from the field, but their huge rebounding advantage coupled with the Grizzlies' poor shooting (.354) proved to be a winning formula. Klay Thompson led the Warriors with 30 points on 11-22 field goal shooting, but Stephen Curry shot just 10-27 from the field to accumulate 29 points. Jordan Poole, the newest "Splash Brother," drizzled his way to 12 points on 4-15 field goal shooting. Dillon Brooks posted Curry-like numbers (30 points, 11-28 field goal shooting), while Desmond Bane nearly matched Thompson's output (25 points, 9-16 field goal shooting), but the Warriors' extra possessions proved to be too much to overcome.
The big "What if?" for this series is the knee injury that Ja Morant suffered in game three. Morant scored 47 points in Memphis' game two win and he averaged 38.3 ppg during the series. The Grizzlies ranked second in the NBA in scoring this season (115.6 ppg), but in the final three games of this series without Morant the Grizzlies failed to break the 100 point barrier twice. Memphis' game five blowout win was an aberration--not from an effort standpoint, but from a shooting and scoring standpoint--and the harsh reality is that without Morant the Grizzlies just could not generate enough offense to win game six even after holding the Warriors to sub-.400 field goal shooting.
Despite being shorthanded and despite losing the battle on the boards, the Grizzlies kept the game close until the fourth quarter, when Curry finally got hot (4-7 field goal shooting, 11 points) and the Warriors outscored the Grizzlies 32-19.
Celtics Avoid Elimination, Defeat Bucks in Milwaukee to Tie Series at 3-3
One of the paradoxes of the NBA playoffs is that home court advantage is significant in the long run over a large sample size of games, but within the confines of a series between two evenly matched teams either team can win on the road. The Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks each won 51 regular season games, they tied their regular season series at 2-2, and now they are tied 3-3 in their second round best of seven series after Boston won 108-95 in Milwaukee. The teams could not be more evenly matched, yet this playoff series has had some anomalies: three of the games have been decided by at least 10 points, and the road team has won four games.
Jayson Tatum led Boston in game six with 46 points on 17-32 field goal shooting, including 7-15 from three point range. He also had nine rebounds, four assists, and a game-best +21 plus/minus number. Giannis Antetokounmpo nearly matched Tatum shot for shot (44 points on 14-30 field goal shooting), but the difference is that two other Celtics scored more than 20 points but no other Buck scored more than 17 points. Jaylen Brown had 22 points on 7-16 field goal shooting, and Marcus Smart added 21 points on 8-16 field goal shooting. In contrast, Jrue Holiday scored 17 points on 7-17 field goal shooting, and Pat Connaughton contributed 14 points on 6-8 field goal shooting. The absence of injured All-Star Khris Middleton was keenly felt by the Bucks in this game, and has been a significant factor as the Bucks' 2-1 series lead slipped to a 3-3 tie.
Antetokounmpo had a game-high 20 rebounds, becoming the first player to have a 40-20 playoff game since Shaquille O'Neal did it in the 2001 NBA Finals versus the Philadelphia 76ers. Antetokounmpo shot 14-15 from the free throw line and he had a team-high six assists. It is not reasonable to expect more from Antetokounmpo, but the Bucks must get more from his supporting cast.
Milwaukee has won twice in Boston during this series, and Milwaukee won game seven in Brooklyn during last year's playoffs, so we know the Bucks are capable of beating the Celtics on Sunday. However, the most difficult road game to win in a series is game seven. In my 2022 Playoff Predictions, I picked the Bucks to win the NBA title but I also sounded a cautionary note about the way that they voluntarily gave up the second seed on the final day of the season to set up a first round matchup with the Chicago Bulls: "I do not like the way that the Bucks rested their starters in the final
game of the season to 'clinch' the third seed instead of fighting for
the second seed, but there is no denying that this looks like a great
first round matchup for the Bucks (who may regret not having home court
advantage in the second round if they face the Celtics)." I picked the Bucks to win this series in six games, but I again criticized the way that the Bucks manipulated the standings: "As much as I respect the Bucks, I did not like it when they did not play
their normal starting lineup in the final game of the regular
season, content to lose that game, drop to the third seed, and face the Bulls in the first round even if that cost them home court advantage in
the second round. Neither the Nets nor the Bulls offered much
resistance in the first round, but now the Celtics enjoy home court
advantage in this
series. That could be an important factor if this series goes the
distance, but I think that both of these teams can win on the road, and
that the Bucks will take the pivotal game five in Boston before winning
at home in game six to close out the series."
The moment of potential regret for the Bucks that I alluded to before the playoffs began has now arrived, and some might call it
karma for messing with the basketball gods by not trying to win the 82nd
regular season game. I am not one of those analysts/commentators who changes his predictions after every game during a series. I picked the Bucks to win the series in six games, which will not happen, but I still believe that the Bucks are the slightly better team and that they will find a way to win game seven.
Cousy said that "since Adam and Eve" there have been people who lack "credibility and skills" who seek to gain credibility by attacking people who have superior credibility and superior skills. Cousy could not have offered a more fitting description of Redick.
Cousy added that responding directly to such people only feeds their desire to gain credibility, so he will not talk about his accomplishments, but that he will speak on behalf of the "plumbers and firemen" he played with and against. Cousy listed a few of them: Wilt Chamberlain, Bill Russell, Elgin Baylor (who he called the greatest small forward ever), Oscar Robertson, Jerry West, George Mikan, John Havlicek, and Bob Pettit. Cousy said that those players were "not too shabby," an understatement that highlights the absurdity of Redick's statement. When Cousy starred in the NBA, the league had fewer teams and fewer players per team; many fringe players who are highly paid today would not have even earned a roster spot back in the day.
As Termine noted, Cousy played an important role in the formation and development of the NBA Players Association, and Cousy also laid the groundwork for the NBA's modern success by playing in a spectacular way that attracted fans. Termine asked Cousy if he thinks that the modern players appreciate what the previous generations of players did. Cousy replied, "I hope so."
Redick should be ashamed of his ignorance, and he should study NBA history before he opens his mouth again--and the same is true of Termine's Sirius XM NBA Radio colleagues Amin Elhassan and Zach Harper.
Mavericks Rout Suns, Force Seventh Game in Phoenix
The Phoenix-Dallas series has become more interesting--and lasted longer--than many people (including this author) expected. After Dallas blew out Phoenix 113-86 to level the series at 3-3, Phoenix' two home wins to take a 2-0 lead seemed like ancient history. The Mavericks have won three of the last four games against a Phoenix squad that went 64-18 in the regular season, including 3-0 against the Mavericks. The odds are that Phoenix will win game seven at home, but once a series is extended to the limit anything can happen to tilt the outcome in favor of the underdog, including foul trouble, injuries, or a shooting slump by a key player.
Speaking of ancient history and shooting slumps, it seems like a long time ago since Chris Paul shot 14-14 from the field as the Suns eliminated the Pelicans in game six of the first round. Although Paul shot very well in the first two games of the Dallas series, his last four shooting performances are 5-9, 2-4, 3-8, and 4-7. The efficiency is not bad, but the total number of made field goals in those four games matches his game six total versus New Orleans. Paul has a long history of wearing down and/or getting injured during the playoffs, and that is what seems to be happening now. It is difficult to picture Phoenix winning game seven if Paul continues to be such a reluctant shooter. While his primary role is to be a playmaker, the Suns are at their best when Paul is a credible scoring threat.
Suns' supporters touted Devin Booker as an MVP candidate based on the premise that the best player on the best team should get the award if he is playing at an All-NBA level. Booker had a subpar game six (19 points on 6-17 field goal shooting, eight turnovers) after averaging 26.8 ppg on .479 field goal shooting with just 3.0 tpg in the first five games of this series. Great regular season statistics and big regular season win totals are nice, but players establish legitimate MVP credentials by consistently performing at a high level in the playoffs.
Dallas' Luka Doncic is rarely, if ever, bashful about shooting. In game six, he scored a game-high 33 points on 11-26 field goal shooting while also leading Dallas with 11 rebounds and eight assists. Reggie Bullock (19 points), Jalen Brunson (18 points), and Spencer Dinwiddie (15 points) provided the kind of scoring support that the Mavericks will need to win game seven in Phoenix. The Mavericks beat the Jazz in the first round by playing small and making a ton of three point shots. That approach did not seem likely to work against the Suns, who have better perimeter defenders than the Jazz, but in game six the Mavericks shot 16-39 (.410) from beyond the arc.
The Suns not only struggled to contain Doncic and his merry band of three point marksmen, but their formerly high scoring, efficient offense sputtered to a season-low point total while shooting just .397 from the field. Maybe being on their home court will cure everything that is ailing the Suns at both ends of the court, but when the visiting team has the best player it is risky to assume that the game's location will be the deciding factor; Doncic is more than capable of scoring 40-plus points and carrying the Mavericks to a road win.
Butler Did It: Heat Dominate 76ers, Advance to the Eastern Conference Finals
The Butler did it, while Joel Embiid and James Harden watched. Full credit to the winners first, and then we will turn our attention to the losers. Jimmy Butler did not have a great first half, but he did not quit, and he dominated in the second half to finish with a game-high 32 points plus eight rebounds and four assists. Max Strus scored 20 points, grabbed a team-high 11 rebounds, and dished for five assists. P.J. Tucker scored 12 points and it seemed like he grabbed every loose ball (he ended up with nine rebounds, including four offensive rebounds). Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro chipped in 10 points each. The Heat were without the services of injured All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry, but they did not whine and they did not make excuses; the Heat went into what is supposed to be a hostile environment facing a player who talks about being the MVP and a player who has previously been named the MVP, and the Heat dismantled the 76ers, 99-90. The game was not nearly as close or competitive as that score may suggest, because by midway through the third quarter everyone in the building knew that the 76ers had no chance: the Philadelphia fans booed, and then many of them went home before the final buzzer.
I remember when I first started covering the NBA in person, and I watched a little known assistant coach named Erik Spoelstra working out before games with a young Dwyane Wade. Pat Riley built Heat culture first as a coach and then as a front office leader, but Spoelstra deserves a lot of credit for being a head coach who not only gets the most out of his star players but who also develops the skills of the lesser known players on the team. Spoelstra's teams consistently play hard and smart.
There will be plenty of time to say more about the Heat, a professional organization from top to bottom that is making its second Eastern Conference Finals appearance in three years. The 76ers are, to put it mildly, not in the same class as the Heat from top to bottom. As Jalen Rose said after the game, "I can't believe that Philly quit like that." Embiid and Harden disappeared during an embarrassing 120-85 game five loss and they did not show up for game six, either. James Harden's sorry history in elimination games is well-documented and he added another ignominious chapter to his book of playoff implosions. The amazing thing is that, other than the specific statistics and quotes, I could have written this game recap before the game began--and I actually put together the basic template before the game began, because I knew that Harden would play poorly and I knew that his team would lose. In fact, I predicted Harden's playoff implosion months ago, right after the 76ers acquired him:
The fit with Embiid and Harden looks clunky: they are two players who
love playing isolation ball and who do not provide much value
offensively when they are not playing isolation ball.
The Embiid-Harden duo enjoyed a brief honeymoon period, but I was not impressed, nor did I change my assessment of Harden:
Harden has already proven throughout his career who he is and what he
is about. The evidence is available for everyone to see: the sulking,
the whining, and the pouting, plus the playoff performances featuring poor shooting and high turnover numbers, especially in elimination games.
It is interesting that so many people believe that he is going to
magically transform himself into a champion. Is it impossible? No, it is
not impossible, but that is not the point; the point is whether or not
such a transformation is likely, based on the available evidence.
Since Harden sulked, whined, and pouted his way out of Oklahoma City in 2012, the player proclaimed by Daryl Morey to be the greatest scorer in pro basketball history
has compiled an 8-9 record in playoff series. Harden has not reached
the NBA Finals since leaving Oklahoma City, he has played in just two
Conference Finals in nine years, and he has lost in the first round
three times.
Overall, Harden has shot .420 or worse from the
field in 15 of his 25 career playoff series, and he has shot .420 or
worse from the field in 46 of his 137 career playoff games. Harden has
played in four game sevens since leaving Oklahoma City; here are his
field goal percentages in those games: 7-20, 12-29, 4-15, 5-17.
Remarkably, his teams went 2-2 in those games despite his awful
shooting--and we know that he was not making up for this by playing good
defense, so this indicates that Harden had a lot of help, contradicting
the notion that he had to do everything himself. If Harden had been
more productive and efficient--if Harden was as good as Morey
proclaims--then Harden would have already won a championship.
If
Harden is effective and efficient during the 2022 playoffs then he will
be breaking the performance trend that he has established throughout
his NBA career. If Harden makes it through the rest of the season and
the playoffs without finding some person, teammate, or situation to
sulk, whine, and pout about then he will be changing the mindset that he
has established and maintained throughout his career.
Watching Harden in the playoffs in the 2010s and 2020s is the opposite from what I experienced watching the Michael Jordan-Scottie Pippen Chicago Bulls in the 1990s; I knew that somehow those teams would win—and they usually did—just like I know that somehow Harden will play poorly when it matters most, and his teams will lose.
Harden did not play poorly overall in the first half of game six (11 points on 4-7
field goal shooting, five assists, one turnover), but a couple of the
little plays that Harden made (or failed to make) in the first half reveal so much about his mentality: the pass he made with the shot clock
about to expire in a vain (in both senses of the word) attempt to
preserve his field goal percentage, and the offensive rebound that he
gave up to Tyler Herro by failing to either box out or pursue the ball.
People who evaluate players and teams primarily by looking at numbers
without watching how players and teams perform from play to play will consistently fail to
understand the game.
I did not change my game recap template after Harden's decent first half, because I had a good idea what would happen next, though I must say that in many ways Harden exceeded my expectations: he did not score a point in the second half, shooting 0-2 from the field, and he had nearly as many turnovers (three) as assists (four). Add it all up, and Harden finished with 11 points, nine assists, and four turnovers while shooting 4-9 from the field. Yes, he had the same number of turnovers and made field goals. The great thing about competition is that after media members construct narratives and "stat gurus" manipulate numbers there still is nowhere to hide on the court: either you step up and perform, and or you shrink under pressure, and everyone can see what you do/who you are. Harden has been doing this consistently for nearly 10 years, and yet there are still people who will either (1) refuse to acknowledge the truth or (2) make excuses for Harden/assert that Harden used to play well in the playoffs but that he is old now.
Joel Embiid was aggressive but not efficient in the first half, scoring 14 points on
5-14 field goal shooting. He settled for too many jump shots and too
many off balance shots; he was most effective when he went into the
paint. We know that he is playing hurt, and if we did not know that then he reminded us by falling down every other play; honestly, I have never seen a skilled athlete fall down that much in one basketball game. The old school mantra is simple: if you are injured then you cannot play, but if you play then you don't make excuses. Wilt Chamberlain won the 1972 Finals MVP with a broken hand. Kobe Bryant won multiple games, series, and championships with a host of ailments.
In the second half, Embiid was less aggressive and even less efficient, scoring six points on 2-10 field goal shooting to finish with 24 points plus a game-high 12 rebounds. It was not an MVP level performance, and consequently Embiid has yet to advance past the second round. "Tanking to the Top" is more accurately called "Tanking to Losing in the Second Round."
It was a treat to listen to Hubie Brown call the game. He does not bash players or teams, but he honestly describes what he sees, and he said a lot about both teams during this lopsided contest. Brown praised the Heat for how hard they play, how disciplined they are, and how well they followed the game plan at both ends of the court--and Brown pointed out that the 76ers were consistently outhustled while playing without much game plan discipline at both ends of the court.
The 76ers' second half collapse is even more pathetic considering that the Heat only led 49-48 at halftime. There is no reason for the 76ers to not be competitive in the second half of a close elimination game at home but, as Rose said, the 76ers quit.
With the season on the line, Harden started the third quarter by dribbling the ball out of bounds off of his foot, and then fouling Butler on a made two point jump shot. Harden clearly hit Butler on his elbow, but Harden complained like it was the worst foul call ever--which is hilarious considering how Harden built much of his legacy and reputation on benefiting from phantom foul calls on players trying to guard him. Perhaps Harden received so much charity from the officials over the years that he has grown to believe that he is entitled to even more charity. Butler made the free throw to complete the three point play, part of Miami's 12-2 run to start the quarter.
If one play epitomized a player, a team, and a series, it happened at the 4:58 mark of the third quarter with the Heat leading 66-52. Harden made a lazy crosscourt pass that Adebayo easily picked off. Adebayo dribbled coast to coast to score, while Harden jogged behind him exerting no effort to contest the shot or commit a foul to prevent an easy score. Philadelphia Coach Doc Rivers disgustedly called a timeout, and 76ers' fans serenaded their lackluster team with loud boos. A little later in the third quarter, Hubie Brown declared of the 76ers, "They're getting outworked, and it's embarrassing." During a typically disjointed offensive possession by the 76ers, Brown muttered, "Come on, what are we running here?" What the 76ers ran for their last play of the quarter was Harden dribbling around aimlessly before passing to Embiid at the top of the key. Embiid did some more aimless dribbling before missing a fadeaway three pointer, which is a wonderful shot for a seven foot tall center to take at any time, let alone when his team is trailing 74-63 in an elimination game. There is a huge difference between saying that you want to be the MVP, and actually being the MVP.
Butler scored 14 third quarter points on 6-9 field goal shooting. The 76ers scored 15 third quarter points on 6-21 field goal shooting. Remember the story about Butler supposedly taking a team of four second stringers or third stringers and winning a scrimmage game versus Minnesota's starters before the Timberwolves got rid of Butler? I imagine that this third quarter looked something like that scrimmage, with Embiid and Harden playing the role of starters being schooled by Butler (with no disrespect meant to the other Heat players, who played very well alongside Butler).
Despite their horrific play, the 76ers were still within striking distance at home with 12 minutes to go. As Hubie Brown said, "There is plenty of time, but you have to show some organization here." Would the 76ers play hard, play smart, and save their season? This is a team led by Embiid and Harden, so what do you think happened? Bad shots, turnovers, and no transition defense. During a timeout, Rivers pleaded with his team, "Fight for this!" The 76ers trudged back on the court, and continued to take bad shots, turn the ball over, and not get back on defense. By this time, fewer boos could be heard--because the fans were heading for the exits.
Tyrese Maxey and Shake Milton keyed a 7-0 run to cut the margin to 94-83, but that just amounted to window dressing--not that Maxey and Milton should not be credited for playing hard, but rather that two players playing hard for a brief spurt was not going to change the outcome. On the next possession, the Heat ran the shot clock all the way down before Gabe Vincent hit a dagger three pointer, and a moment later Brown said of the 76ers, "They're defeated now." Rivers waved the white flag with about a minute to go, pulling his starters out of the game; as Rose noted, that is not a great look for a coach or a team during an elimination game: what did the 76ers have to lose by fouling, extending the game, and not giving up? Apparently, they all thought that they had more important ways to spend the rest of the evening.
In the second half, Butler scored 23 points on 10-19 field goal shooting. Embiid had six points on 2-10 field goal shooting, while Harden scored no points on 0-2 field goal shooting. Remember all of that talk about Embiid and Harden being the next Shaq and Kobe? Remember Embiid saying that he never scored more easily than he did after Harden joined the team? Remember Daryl Morey refusing to trade Ben Simmons for C.J. McCollum or anyone else because he stubbornly insisted on waiting until he could acquire Harden? Let's not pretend that these foolish statements and comically bad player evaluations happened a long time ago.
Despite Harden's lackluster effort and performance, don't be surprised if Morey fires Rivers, brings in Mike D'Antoni to be the coach, and then gives Harden a max extension for over $200 million. Such moves would be par for the course for a franchise that never misses an opportunity to make a poor strategic decision: the 76ers traded Butler to Miami three years ago to hand the keys over
to Ben Simmons, who they traded earlier this season to acquire Harden,
so the bottom line is that the 76ers gave up Butler to get Harden. "Stat gurus" rarely admit to being wrong, so it would be shocking if Morey gives up on Harden, who he proclaimed to be a greater scorer than Michael Jordan. I don't recall Jordan ever shooting 0-2 from the field in the second half of an elimination game, but how could my knowledge of NBA history and player analysis possibly measure up to the knowledge and analytical capabilities of such an accomplished front office leader as Daryl Morey?
Grizzlies Rout Warriors, Send Series Back to Golden State for Game Six
The Golden State Warriors went to Memphis on Wednesday night expecting a coronation, but instead of being crowned they got clowned. The Grizzlies scored the first five points of the game in less than a minute, never trailed, led by as many as 55 points, and defeated the Warriors 134-95 in a game that was not as close as the final score may suggest; this was a "name the number" game: the Grizzlies could have won by 40, 50, or 60 points if they had so desired. Ja Morant missed his second straight game due to a bone bruise in his knee that will reportedly keep him out of action for the rest of the playoffs, and the Grizzlies again demonstrated--as they did throughout the regular season--that they are much more than a one man team. No Memphis player played more than 25 minutes, but seven scored in double figures, led by three players who had 21 points each (Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Tyus Jones). Steven Adams had a game-high 13 rebounds as the Grizzlies annihilated the Warriors 55-37 on the boards. Adams missed four straight playoff games due to a combination of COVID-19 and also the coaching staff deciding to play small, but he had 15 rebounds in 27 minutes as the Grizzlies led for most of game four before blowing it at the end, and he was similarly dominant in the paint in game five.
Shooting may not travel, but defense and rebounding do travel. The Grizzlies are big, they are physical, and they play excellent
defense. They have matchup advantages against Golden State, and they
have a chance to win this series even without Morant.
Perhaps that last sentence sounds bizarre or even crazy because of Golden State's "Death Lineup" and "championship DNA," so keep in mind that the nucleus of this team--with all of their vaunted "championship DNA"--blew a 3-1 lead in the 2016 NBA Finals. The popular perceptions of this series do not match up with reality. The "Death" in the Warriors' "Death Lineup" was mostly provided by two-time Finals MVP Kevin Durant, who also provided two thirds of the Warriors' three championships; the only other title came at the expense of a Cleveland team missing two of their three All-Stars, the same Cleveland team that--when healthy--beat the Warriors in the 2016 Finals.
Isn't a big part of "championship DNA" winning a series as quickly as possible to conserve energy and avoid injuries? Either the Warriors' "championship DNA" is missing a few strands, or these teams are more evenly matched than the "experts" suspect.
Klay Thompson led the Warriors with 19 points on 7-12 field goal shooting, but he also had a staggering -45 plus/minus number. Jonathan Kuminga added 17 points. Two-time regular season MVP Stephen Curry scored 14 points, shot 4-10 from the field, did not score in the second half, and posted a tidy -37 plus/minus number. Draymond Green produced a "triple single" (five points, seven rebounds, five assists), and a -32 plus/minus number. Jordan Poole scored three points on 1-6 field goal shooting. The "Splash Brothers" trio of Curry, Thompson and Poole barely created a ripple.
The Warriors will play better in game six at home--they could hardly play worse--but any notion that this will be easy is false. The Grizzlies came within a missed layup at the buzzer of winning game one, and they outplayed the Warriors for the vast majority of game four; the 3-2 margin in Golden State's favor could easily be 3-2 in Memphis' favor, and the Grizzlies are unlikely to show up for game six just happy to be there: the Grizzlies will play hard, and if just a little bit of their shooting travels with them they have a legitimate opportunity to bring this series back to Memphis for game seven, which could provide a great test of what exactly is in Golden State's "championship DNA" when Durant is not around to save the day.
Nikola Jokic Joins the Select Back to Back MVP Club
Nikola Jokic has won the 2022 NBA regular season MVP, joining the select group of pro basketball players who won at least two consecutive MVPs: Bill Russell (1961-63 NBA), Wilt Chamberlain (1966-68 NBA), Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1971-72, 1976-77 NBA), Julius Erving (1974-76 ABA), Moses Malone (1982-83 NBA), Larry Bird (1984-86 NBA), Magic Johnson (1989-90 NBA), Michael Jordan (1992-92 NBA), Tim Duncan (2002-03 NBA), Steve Nash (2004-05 NBA), LeBron James (2009-10, 2012-13 NBA), Stephen Curry (2015-16 NBA), and Giannis Antetokounmpo (2019-20 NBA). Antetokounmpo finished third this year, while Joel Embiid was second.
Reigning regular season MVP Nikola Jokic also had a fantastic season
(career-high 27.1 ppg, career-high 13.8 rpg, 7.9 apg, career-high .583
FG%), becoming the first player in NBA history to have at least 2000
points (2004), at least 1000 rebounds (1019), and at least 500 assists
(584) in the same season (to be fair, Wilt Chamberlain missed out on
this distinction by just eight points in 1968 and by 44 points in 1967,
two seasons during which he had over 1900 rebounds). Jokic joined pro basketball's "Five-Tool Club,"
the elite group of players (Julius Erving, Dave Cowens, Scottie Pippen,
Tracy McGrady, Kevin Garnett) who led their teams in scoring,
rebounding, assists, steals, and blocked shots in the same season.
Joel
Embiid, who openly campaigned for the MVP award throughout the season,
won his first scoring title with a career-high 30.6 ppg while also
grabbing 11.7 rpg and dishing for 4.2 apg.
The historical standard is that an NBA MVP must play in at least 85% of the scheduled games,
which adds up to at least 70 games in the traditional 82 game season.
Bill Walton is the only regular season MVP in NBA history who played
less than 85% of his team's games. In fact, 19 MVPs played all 82 games,
11 MVPs played in 81 games, and five MVPs played in 80 games (also,
Karl Malone played 49 of 50 games in the lockout-shortened 1999 season).
I miss the days before "load management"! If the 70 games played
threshold still matters to the MVP voters, then Jokic (74 games played)
prevails over Embiid--who played in a career-high 68 games--and
Antetokounmpo, who played in 67 games.
Jokic averaged 35.7 ppg, 16.3 rpg, 7.4 apg, and 2.1 spg in his final seven games to help his Denver Nuggets secure a playoff berth despite being without the services of injured star point guard Jamal Murray, who missed the entire season due to an ACL tear. Playoff statistics are not considered regarding regular season MVP voting, but it is worth noting that Jokic led the league in playoff scoring in 2022 (31.0 ppg) while also averaging 13.2 rpg, 5.8 apg, 1.6 spg, and 1.0 bpg. He shot .575 from the field, and it was not his fault that his outmatched Nuggets lost 4-1 in the first round to the Golden State Warriors. Jokic's career playoff averages (26.4 ppg, 11.5 rpg, 6.4 apg, .519 FG%) confirm that his game does not fall apart in the postseason, which distinguishes him from some highly touted players.
Instant Classic: Bucks Come Back From 14 Point Deficit to Edge Celtics, 110-107
Milwaukee's 110-107 game five win at Boston had it all: big performances by each team's superstar, clutch plays by both teams, and a suspenseful, dramatic conclusion. The Celtics led for most of the game, were up 93-79 with 10:16 remaining in the fourth quarter, and were ahead 105-99 at the 2:12 mark after Al Horford's follow slam. The Bucks showed their championship poise by closing the game with an 11-2 run that included crucial free throws, big shots, and some sensational defensive plays.
Giannis Antetokounmpo scored a game-high 40 points on 16-27 field goal shooting, and he grabbed 11 rebounds, but he did not play a perfect game; he committed seven turnovers and he only shot 6-10 from the free throw line--but being a superstar is about impacting the outcome of the game, not about being perfect. Antetokounmpo made his presence felt at both ends of the court, and by the end of the game he was bloodied--play had to be halted twice late in the game so that the Bucks' medical staff could stop blood from pouring out of Antetokounmpo's face--but not bowed. Jrue Holiday continued to struggle with his shot (9-24 field goal shooting) but he made some of the game's biggest plays, and he finished with 24 points, eight rebounds, and a game-high eight assists. Bobby Portis shot just 4-14 from the field, but he chased down a game-high 15 rebounds, and his putback with 11.4 seconds remaining proved to be the game-winning basket.
Jayson Tatum scored a team-high 34 points and he committed just one turnover in 42 minutes. He also had six rebounds and four assists. The only blemish was his poor three point shooting (2-11), which dragged down his overall field goal shooting (12-29). Jaylen Brown had an excellent all-around game (26 points on 9-19 field goal shooting, eight rebounds, six assists). Game four hero Al Horford made some key plays but he did not come close to replicating his 30 point performance, finishing with eight points, eight rebounds, and six assists.
The tightly contested first quarter featured four lead changes, and ended with Milwaukee up, 28-26. The Celtics jumped out to a 51-38 lead late in the second quarter, but the Bucks rallied to cut the margin to 54-47 by halftime. Even though the Bucks trailed, they stayed true to their game plan of dominating the paint and forcing the Celtics to score from the three point arc; the Bucks won the first half rebounding battle 28-19, and they held the Celtics to 6-21 three point shooting (.286). The Bucks' main first half problems were too many turnovers (nine, compared to Boston's two), and poor field goal shooting (.396). In the second half, the Bucks shot much better (.477), committed just four turnovers (compared to Boston's eight), and outrebounded the Celtics 21-17. The Bucks' advantages in those categories enabled them to survive Boston's .538 second half field goal shooting.
The third quarter featured runs by both teams, but ended with the Celtics adding just two points to their halftime advantage to enter the fourth quarter up, 86-77. A quick 7-2 Boston burst early in the fourth quarter made it seem like this might be the Celtics' night, but the Bucks spent the rest of the final stanza chipping away until they pulled within two points, 101-99, on a Holiday jump shot with 4:09 remaining. However, Horford's spectacular tip dunk at the 2:12 mark put Boston up 105-99. Portis missed a long two point jumper, but Wes Matthews grabbed the rebound and passed to Antetokoumpo, who calmly drained a three pointer. The teams traded misses, and then Antetokounmpo got a steal that the Bucks converted into a Holiday three pointer that tied the game at 105-105. Portis fouled Tatum on a drive, and Tatum's two free throws with 31.4 seconds left gave Boston a 107-105 lead. Antetokounmpo countered with a drive, and he was fouled by Grant Williams. Antetokounmpo made the first free throw but he missed the second free throw. Portis corralled the miss and scored what turned out to be the game-winning layup--but the game was still far from over. Marcus Smart drove the baseline but was denied at the hoop on a spectacular block by Holiday, who then saved the possession by throwing the ball off of Smart. Pat Connaughton nailed two free throws after the Celtics committed a take foul, and then Holiday sealed the win by stealing the ball from Smart in the open court.
The effort level and intensity displayed by both teams were outstanding, and epitomized what game five in a 2-2 series is supposed to look like and be about; game five is not supposed to be about the road team's stars disappearing and meekly submitting to a blowout loss. Remember when James Harden said that he wishes he could be seven feet tall and just dunk? That was a not so veiled reference to Giannis Antetokounmpo, with the point being that Harden believes that he has great basketball skills, in contrast to Antetokounmpo just being a big athlete who lacks great basketball skills. Since Harden made that remark, Antetokounmpo has led the Bucks to a championship and won a Finals MVP, while Harden continued his career-long pattern of disappearing in elimination games. To say that Harden's insult of Antetokounmpo did not age well would be the understatement of the century; Harden's delusional assessment of his basketball skills compared to Antetokounmpo's basketball skills is as off target as Harden's playoff shooting.
Past performance does not guarantee future results, but past performance provides a good idea of what to expect. The Philadelphia 76ers face a home elimination game versus the Miami Heat tomorrow night. What should we expect to see in that game from James Harden, the player who Daryl Morey declared to be a better scorer than Michael Jordan?
Here are James Harden's statistics from the 11 playoff games in which his team faced elimination since he fled the Oklahoma City Thunder after losing in the 2012 NBA Finals:
4/27/16 Game Five Western Conference First Round versus Golden State Warriors (Houston Rockets lost, 114-81): 35 points, 12-23 FG (.522), 7 TO, -27 plus/minus.
5/27/15 Game Five Western Conference Finals versus Golden State Warriors (Houston Rockets lost, 104-90): 14 points, 2-11 FG (.182), 12 TO, -4 plus/minus.
5/17/15 Game Seven Western Conference Second Round versus L.A. Clippers (Houston Rockets won, 113-100): 31 points, 7-20 FG (.350), 7 TO, +12 plus/minus.
5/2/14 Game Six Western Conference First Round versus Portland Trail Blazers (Houston Rockets lost, 99-98): 34 points, 9-15 FG (.600), 4 TO, +7 plus/minus.
5/3/13 Game Six Western Conference First Round versus Oklahoma City Thunder (Houston Rockets lost, 103-94): 26 points, 7-22 FG (.318), 4 TO, +3 plus/minus.
Totals/Averages: 26.0 ppg, 83-208 FG (.399), 5.9 TPG, -8.5 plus/minus, 2-9 team record (average point differential for Harden's team: -11.1).
When his team faced elimination, Harden has been a high volume/low efficiency shooter who turned the ball over at an alarming rate--in fact, he set the single game playoff record for turnovers (12). Great players handle the ball a lot, so many of the highest turnover games have been logged by great players, but Harden's combination of 12 turnovers with 2-11 field goal shooting in the same game is quite special. Luka Doncic had an 11 turnover playoff game, but he shot 13-21 from the field in that game. Another way to offset a high turnover rate is to make a significant contribution defensively and/or by being a great leader but--to put it mildly--Harden is not known for doing either of those things.
Bob Lanier, Hall of Famer and NBA Ambassador, Passed Away at Age 73
Bob Lanier, one of the NBA's best centers in the 1970s during an era when the league had several Hall of Fame centers, has passed away after a brief illness. The 73 year old Lanier was just as renowned for being a great person as he was for being a great player. He won the 1978 J. Walter Kennedy Citizenship award in recognition of his contributions to the world away from the basketball court.
NBA Commissioner Adam Silver issued the following statement shortly after Lanier's death was confirmed:
Bob Lanier was a Hall of Fame player and among the most talented
centers in the history of the NBA, but his impact on the league went
far beyond what he accomplished on the court. For more than 30 years,
Bob served as our global ambassador and as a special assistant to David
Stern and then me, traveling the world to teach the game’s values and
make a positive impact on young people everywhere. It was a labor of
love for Bob, who was one of the kindest and most genuine people I have
ever been around. His enormous influence on the NBA was also seen during
his time as President of the National Basketball Players Association,
where he played a key role in the negotiation of a game-changing
collective bargaining agreement.
I learned so much from Bob by simply watching how he connected
with people. He was a close friend who I will miss dearly, as will so
many of his colleagues across the NBA who were inspired by his
generosity. We send our deepest condolences to Bob’s family and
friends.
Early in his career, Lanier faced off against older legends who started their careers in the 1960s, including Wilt Chamberlain and Willis Reed. Lanier also battled against great contemporaries, including Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Dave Cowens, Bob McAdoo, Moses Malone, Wes Unseld, and Bill Walton. Lanier twice finished in the top five in regular season MVP voting (third in 1974, fourth in 1977). He won the 1972 ABA-NBA All-Star Game MVP, and he won the 1974 NBA All-Star Game MVP. Lanier ranked in the top 10 in scoring six times, and he finished in the top 10 in rebounding four times. He finished his career as a member of the elite 20-10 club (20.1 ppg, 10.1 rpg).
In 1972, Lanier was crowned as the NBA's one-on-one champion, defeating Jo Jo White in the finals and winning $15,000 plus a fancy trophy:
The NBA on TNT crew just did a nice tribute segment about Lanier, and what Charles Barkley said during that segment echoed what he told me when I interviewed Barkley during the 2006 NBA All-Star Weekend: "I know Bob personally. He lives in
Arizona. Obviously, he was a great, great, great player, but the one
thing that I'll say about Bob is that Bob is one of the nicest men I've
met in my life, period. He's a wonderful person. You can look at his
stats and the fact that he's in the Hall of Fame and see that he was a
great player. Living in Phoenix, I've gotten to know him really well and
he's just a wonderful person."
It
was an honor and a treat to interview Lanier, because he was one of the
NBA's best players when I first fell in love with the sport, and he was
one of the players profiled in one of the first basketball books that I
read as a child, Basketball's Biggest Stars by Angelo Resciniti.
The Lanier quote that always resonated the most with me is what he told me during our first interview after I asked him to describe the greatest moment of his NBA career. Lanier replied, "Greatest moment? To me--and I know that this might sound a little
trite--the greatest moment is that basketball has enabled me to touch
other people's lives. I've always been able to do that. Since day one,
being an NBA player and visiting a hospital or going to a senior
citizens' home and listening to an elderly person who has much more
wisdom than I'll ever have and brightening their day and giving my
energy. It's something that is very, very special that the NBA has been
able to do. It's terrific for me. (NBA Senior Vice President) Kathy (Behrens) talked about seeing our players
making words come to life. That is very special because I see them in
gyms and community centers with these kids, bright eyed kids draped all
around them. They've got their hands on these books that they almost
cover up because their hands are so big. Then, the energy that they have
by making the words come to life and then going over to a tech center
where they get on these computers. It's funny sometimes, because really
the kids know more about how to do online stuff than our players, so
they end up teaching our players. It's really, really nice."
There has been a lot of talk about the 76ers gaining momentum after winning two home playoff games, and about Joel Embiid being fired up because it has been reported that Nikola Jokic will soon be named the 2022 NBA regular season MVP. NBA playoff games are not won by talk but by action, and in game five the actions of the Miami Heat and Philadelphia 76ers spoke volumes: the Heat won 120-85 to take a 3-2 lead and push the 76ers to the brink of elimination. Jimmy Butler led the way with 23 points, nine rebounds and six assists, but he had a lot of help: all four of Miami's starters scored at least 10 points each, and two Miami reserves also scored in double figures. The Heat shot .536 from the field, and they outrebounded the 76ers, 46-36. The Heat set the tone at the start--leading 31-19 at the end of the first quarter--and they ended the game emphatically, outscoring the 76ers 39-19 in the fourth quarter.
The Heat deserve credit for taking care of business and for showing that they are quite worthy of being the number one seed in the East. There will be more opportunities to talk about the Heat in depth, but this game revealed a lot about the 76ers. Actions speak louder than words. When Hakeem Olajuwon was upset about David Robinson winning the 1995 regular season MVP, Olajuwon obliterated Robinson during their head to head playoff matchup. Miami center Bam Adebayo is a very good player but he is no Robinson. If Embiid is who he says he is and who he wants MVP voters to believe him to be, then this series is his opportunity to prove it by dominating Adebayo and leading Philadelphia to victory.
Embiid finished game five with 17 points on 7-12 field goal shooting, five rebounds, and no blocked shots. He was passive at both ends of the court, in marked contrast to how he played in the previous two games. There is no question that Embiid is one of the most talented big men in the NBA--and we know that he is playing hurt, but he is not the first and will not be the last star player playing hurt in the playoffs: Giannis Antetokoumpo came back from a knee injury to produce 50 points, 14 rebounds, and five blocked shots in game six of the 2021 NBA Finals to carry his Milwaukee Bucks to a championship.
Compare 50-14-5 in game six of the NBA Finals to 17-5-0 in game five of the second round. There is no comparison, and the gap between those two sets of numbers represents the difference between talking about being great and doing what it takes to be great.
The 76ers' second leading scorer in game five was James Harden, who resumed his "concert tour" with a May 13 date (i.e., he shot 5-13 from the field). Harden had 14 points, six rebounds, four assists, and four turnovers. In game four, Harden proved that there is nothing wrong with him physically, and that he can still get his shot off at will, so we understand that his game five disappearing act is related to his mentality, not his physical abilities. With the season on the line for all practical purposes, and the 76ers within striking distance at halftime, the player who Daryl Morey compared favorably to Michael Jordan as a scorer shot 1-5 from the field in the second half. However, Harden proved that he is a two-way player--in the worst way--by disappearing at the other end of the court as well: if being the last player back on defense were an "advanced basketball statistic," Harden's game five performance would be one for the record books--and when the soon-to-be $200 million man is indifferent about getting back on defense, that losing attitude permeates the team. Whether or not you approve of or like their methods, Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant pushed their teammates to achieve greatness. Harden has a track record of encouraging his teammates to cultivate losing habits. It is not a coincidence that serious-minded, dedicated players like Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook could not stand playing with Harden.
Before the game, TNT's Chris Haynes stated that Embiid had been quiet all day, that Embiid was upset about being not being named MVP, and that Embiid is acting like someone who wants to prove something. Let's just say that Haynes does not have a future as a fortune teller or as someone who is proficient at interpreting body language. During the game, after it became clear that Embiid and his 76ers were going to lose meekly without offering much resistance, Haynes tried to backpedal from his original take, and suggest that Embiid's pregame mood may have been a sign that he was disengaged. Haynes stated that he even asked 76ers' staffers if Embiid was ill, but they made it clear that Embiid is not ill.
When will media members understand that this is who Embiid is? He missed the first two full seasons of his career due to injury, and in the subsequent six seasons he has proven that he is (1) still injury prone and (2) unable to lead his team past the second round of the playoffs.
Throughout the game, Philadelphia Coach Doc Rivers could be heard pleading with his team to play harder. As TNT's Charles Barkley said, it is not good when a coach has to beg his team to play hard in game five of a 2-2 series. None of this should surprise anyone. The 76ers are a team that did not "tank to the top," but rather a team that was built by developing losing habits, and thus a team that never cultivated a winning culture, let alone a championship culture--and the recently acquired Harden fits right in, because he quits and pouts when he does not get his way, which is why he is playing for his third team in the past two seasons.
After the Celtics swept the 76ers in the 2020 playoffs, I wrote, "Tanking does not promote, cultivate, or develop a winning culture, so it
is no surprise that a team built by tanking lacks mental toughness; the
76ers are frontrunners who rely on raw talent, but they do not maximize
their talent, and they fold when they face adversity. This is a
predictable outcome from tanking, and indeed I predicted this from the
start, in contrast to the overheated praise many media members heaped on
Sam Hinkie, the creator of 'The Process.'"
In contrast, under Pat Riley the Heat have built a winning culture. Stars come and go, but the expectations do not change, the attention to detail does not change, and the commitment to excellence (to borrow Al Davis' phrase) does not change. It is not a coincidence that LeBron James won two titles during his four Miami Heat seasons, and two titles during his other 15 seasons; his other teams catered to him and his whims, while the Heat insisted that James embrace the Heat way. After he won two championships with the Heat, James preferred to go elsewhere and resume doing things his way. When Riley referred to "No more smiling faces with hidden agendas," you did not need a decoder ring to know that he was talking about James.
All you need to know about these two franchises and their divergent methods of team building/player evaluation is that in 2019 the 76ers traded Butler to the Heat in exchange for Josh Richardson. Butler did not fit in with the program that the 76ers were building; Butler led the Heat to the 2020 NBA Finals, while the 76ers are poised to lose in the second round or earlier for the fifth straight season.
Could the 76ers win at home to push this series to a seventh game? Anything is possible, but the 76ers not only have to overcome Butler and the Heat but also their own flawed psyches: a game six win at home means facing game seven in Miami, and if game five showed us anything it showed us that the 76ers have little interest in competing in Miami again this season.
Celtics Win Game Four in Milwaukee, Retake Home Court Advantage
Al Horford scored a playoff career-high 30 points and Jayson Tatum also scored 30 points as the Boston Celtics rallied from an 11 point deficit to defeat the Milwaukee Bucks 116-108 to tie their playoff series at 2-2. The Celtics reclaimed home court advantage as the series shifts back to Boston for the pivotal game five. Horford shot 11-14 from the field, grabbed eight rebounds, and led both teams with a +20 plus/minus number. Tatum had a team-high 13 rebounds, and he also had five assists. Tatum shot 11-24 from the field. Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart scored 18 points each. Smart had a team-high eight assists.
Giannis Antetokounmpo notched game-high totals in points (34) and rebounds (18), and he also had five assists, but he shot 14-32 from the field and he looked uncharacteristically tired late in the fourth quarter when he was subbed out for a quick rest (less than one minute of game time). He had a +1 plus/minus number in 41 minutes, which means that the Bucks trailed by nine points in the seven minutes that he did not play. Brook Lopez had a solid game (17 points, seven rebounds), but Jrue Holiday shot just 5-22 from the field en route to posting a -23 plus/minus number. Holiday had 16 points, a game-high nine assists, and seven rebounds, but his poor shooting is becoming a significant subplot in this series. He is best suited to being the third offensive option and lead perimeter defender, but as this series progresses the absence of injured All-Star Khris Middleton is increasingly being felt at both ends of the court as Holiday is being forced to shoulder a heavier load than he can carry without a corresponding drop in his efficiency.
The Bucks started the game strongly, leading 25-18 by the end of the first quarter after forcing five turnovers, winning the rebounding battle 17-9, and holding the Celtics to .364 field goal shooting. The Bucks should have been ahead by even more, but they only shot .357 from the field.
In the second quarter, the Bucks continued to shoot poorly (.333 field goal percentage) but the Celtics cut their turnovers to two, fought to a 12-12 draw on the boards, and outscored the Bucks 29-23 to shave Milwaukee's lead to 48-47 by halftime.
Antetokounmpo dominated the third quarter with 13 points on 5-8 field goal shooting as the Bucks shot .526 from the field, outscored the Celtics 32-26, and extended their advantage to 76-65 before settling for an 80-73 lead heading into the final 12 minutes.
Depending on how you view it, in the fourth quarter either the Bucks' defense fell apart or the Celtics' offense operated at absolute peak efficiency: the Celtics shot 16-19 from the field (.842) en route to outscoring the Bucks 43-28. Milwaukee is a championship team that prides itself on using its height and strength to defend with great tenacity, so that performance--with a great opportunity to take a 3-1 series lead--is very surprising. Horford outscored the Bucks 16-14 at the start of the fourth quarter, and he tied the score at 80-80 with an emphatic dunk over Antetokounmpo at the 9:51 mark. Antetokounmpo fouled Horford on the play, and Horford was assessed a technical foul because his elbow made contact with Antetokounmpo's face as both players tumbled to the ground. Horford shot 6-6 from the field in the fourth quarter, and Tatum was almost as deadly, scoring 12 points on 5-6 field goal shooting. Antetokounmpo scored six fourth quarter points on 3-7 field goal shooting, and Holiday was 0-5 from the field in the final stanza. Lopez had 10 points on 4-5 field goal shooting, but that was not nearly enough to hold off the rampaging Celtics.
During the playoffs, there is an amusing tendency for commentators to jump off and on various bandwagons from game to game; the team that just won is portrayed as invincible, while the team that just lost has several insurmountable matchup problems. The reality is nuanced, and is based on how the matchups play out over the course of several games. Does Boston's road win after dominating the fourth quarter change my prediction? No--in fact, the series is "on schedule" from my perspective, because in my series preview I noted that both teams can win on the road, and I predicted that Milwaukee would win game five in Boston before taking game six back in Milwaukee. I did not know how the series would progress from game to game but I expected a 2-2 tie with each team winning once on the road. If I am right--and if there are no further injuries--Antetokoumpo's greatness will be the distinguishing factor, just as it was during Milwaukee's championship run last season.
Embiid and Harden Lead the Way as 76ers Tie Heat Series at 2-2
Is the James Harden "concert tour" over, or was it just postponed for one night? After shooting .385 from the field in the first three games of Philadelphia's second round playoff series versus Miami with field goal numbers that looked like concert tour dates (5-13, 6-15, 4-11), James Harden scored a team-high 31 points on 8-18 field goal shooting as the 76ers beat the Heat 116-108 to tie the series at 2-2. Harden also had seven rebounds plus a game-high nine assists. The only major blemish on his boxscore line is that he coughed up six turnovers. In the fourth quarter, Harden scored 16 points on 5-9 field goal shooting, and he did not commit any turnovers. In the first three games of this series, Harden scored 10 second half
points while shooting 3-14 from the field (.214), including 0-8 from
three point range. It is not good when a player's field goal numbers look like
concert tour dates and when his field goal percentage would not even be a
good batting average.
Harden's game four numbers and the highlight videos of his big plays are important things to remember and consider, because they refute the "James Harden is old and should be cut a lot of slack for declining numbers" narrative that has become so popular. No, Harden is still able to get to the hoop, he is still able to create separation, and he is still capable of making shots, which means that if he fails to do those things moving forward then no excuses should be offered on his behalf.
Of course, it is easier for the little brother to be assertive when the big brother is nearby to maintain order. The 76ers' MVP candidate Joel Embiid missed the first two games of this series after suffering a concussion and an orbital fracture in their first round game six win versus Toronto, but Embiid made a major difference in Philadelphia's game three victory, and he was even more dominant in Philadelphia's game four win (24 points on 7-13 field goal shooting, game-high 11 rebounds). Embiid shuts down the paint defensively, and he is a scoring machine in the paint offensively; his presence distorts Miami's offense while enhancing Philadelphia's offense not only with his own efficient shooting but also by creating space to make life easier for the team's perimeter shooters (including Harden).
Jimmy Butler poured in a game-high 40 points on 13-20 field goal shooting and he dished for six assists, but he did not receive nearly enough help. Bam Adebayo had solid numbers (21 points, seven rebounds, four assists), but Embiid outplayed him by a wider margin than the boxscore numbers suggest.
Embiid set the tone in the first quarter with 15 points on 5-6 field goal shooting while Harden did not score, but in the second period Harden scored 13 points on 3-4 field goal shooting while Embiid was scoreless. The roles flipped again in the third quarter as Embiid scored nine points while Harden scored two points, and then in the fourth quarter Harden scored 16 points while Embiid did not score. This is the kind of dynamic duo, tag team performance that the 76ers hoped to see during most games after trading for Harden--and this is also one home win by a team that must win in Miami to advance to the next round. The standard for superstar excellence used to be consistently great performance, not one very good game every once in a while.
I picked Miami to win this series in five games if Embiid did not play, and Miami to win this series in six games if Embiid played. My expectations have not changed; I believe that Miami will win at home in game five, and then win a close game on the road in game six. Miami will shoot much better at home, while Philadelphia will not shoot as well, and then when the series shifts back to Philadelphia look for the Heat to be much more aggressive and active defensively than they were in game four; Embiid has a matchup advantage one on one versus any Heat player, so the best way to counter that is not just trapping, but very aggressive trapping that forces the 76ers to play faster and not take the shots that they would prefer to take.
Mavericks Make 20 Three Pointers, Even Series With Suns at 2-2
During a playoff series, it is often asserted that the trailing team has no answers for what the leading team is doing--until the trailing team wins a game or two, and then it is asserted that the leading team is in trouble. The reality is often both simpler and more complex than such one dimensional narratives suggest: the simple truth is that, barring injuries, the team with the most significant enduring matchup advantages will win the series; the complex truth is that a variety of factors influence the outcome of a particular game, including role players playing better at home than on the road, differences in officiating, and individual outlier performances that are not sustainable.
The Phoenix Suns beat the Dallas Mavericks 121-114 in game one and 129-109 in game two. Those two home victories did not mean that the Mavericks had no answers for the Suns and no chance to win a game or even two games, but those victories indicated that the Suns have matchup advantages that will likely result in them eventually winning the series.
The Mavericks have now won two home games to send the series back to Phoenix tied 2-2. Those two victories do not mean that the Suns are in trouble, but they served as a reminder that teams tend to shoot better and perform better at home. For example, in the Suns' game two rout they shot 13-25 (.520) from three point range while the Mavericks shot 17-41 (.415) from beyond the arc--but in game four on Sunday afternoon, the Suns shot 9-25 (.360) on three pointers while the Mavericks shot 20-44 (.455). If those trends continue then of course the Suns may be in trouble--but the point is that it is unlikely that either trend will continue: in game five in Phoenix, the Suns will likely shoot better than they did in Dallas, and the Mavericks will likely shoot worse than they did in Dallas.
One interesting trend to monitor is that Chris Paul may be wearing down. Why does this matter more than the three point shooting percentages of the teams? It matters more because Paul wearing down and/or getting injured during the playoffs has been a recurring theme throughout his playoff career, and is a major reason that--despite all of the regular season success enjoyed by his teams--he has played in the NBA Finals just once. In game three, Paul set a playoff career-high with seven first half turnovers. He did not have a second half turnover, but he was also oddly passive, finishing with just 12 points on 5-9 field goal shooting, and just four assists. In game four, Paul had a "triple single" (five points, seven assists, five rebounds) before fouling out after playing just 23 minutes. High turnover rates and high fouling rates are two signs that a player is not focused mentally and/or wearing down physically (resulting in slower reaction time). Perhaps Paul will bounce back with a big game five performance, but his history of wearing down should concern Suns' fans.
After setting a playoff career-high with four first half fouls in game four, Paul hardly made the most of his final two fouls. Paul received his fifth foul at the 9:32 mark of the third quarter. Dribbling the ball up the court, Paul veered into the path of Jalen Brunson, initiating contact that was correctly ruled an offensive foul. Paul knew that the call was correct, and he did not complain, which is quite telling considering that he often complains about foul calls. It is inexplicable that the Suns squandered a replay challenge on this call. Paul fouled out at the 8:58 mark of the fourth quarter after grabbing Brunson's arm on a shot attempt. This was another obvious and unnecessary foul. Paul did not complain about that call, either. A smart player who is mentally engaged in the game is not going to rack up four first half fouls, let alone foul out by committing an offensive foul in the backcourt followed by a reach in foul after giving up an offensive rebound to the opposing team's point guard.
It is comical when commentators state with great conviction that a team's playoff success is directly connected to whether or not a particular player scores more (or less) than a specific number of points, or whether or not a particular player has more (or less) than a specific number of assists. This is not a new phenomenon, but the reality is that many factors determine which team wins a playoff game. One might assert that Dallas can only win if Luka Doncic scores more than 40 points or if he has at least 12 assists (depending on whether your preferred narrative is that Doncic must "take over" or Doncic must "involve his teammates"), but the reality is that Dallas won game four with Doncic scoring 26 points on 9-25 field goal shooting (.360) while dishing for 11 assists. Dorian Finney-Smith made a major contribution with 24 points, including 8-12 shooting from three point range.
With Paul playing passively and then fouling out, the Suns did not display the offensive balance and efficiency that were their trademarks throughout the season. Devin Booker poured in a game-high 35 points on 10-22 field goal shooting, but no other Sun scored more than 15 points.
The Suns will likely win game five at home before either breaking through on the road in game six or winning again at home in game seven, but if you are looking for reasons for Dallas to be optimistic then focus on (1) Paul's history of wearing down and (2) Doncic emerging as the best player in the series. Doncic has scored more points in the first 20 games of his playoff career than every player other than Michael Jordan and Wilt Chamberlain, and a player who is that great can sometimes will his team to a road playoff victory; if that happens in game five, then the Mavericks could close out the series from the comforts of their home court. That is not the outcome that I expect, but Paul's long-established resume and Doncic's short but growing resume at least make it possible.
"A work of art contains its verification in itself: artificial, strained concepts do not withstand the test of being turned into images; they fall to pieces, turn out to be sickly and pale, convince no one. Works which draw on truth and present it to us in live and concentrated form grip us, compellingly involve us, and no one ever, not even ages hence, will come forth to refute them."--Alexander Solzhenitsyn (Nobel Lecture)
"The most 'popular,' the most 'successful' writers among us (for a brief period, at least) are, 99 times out of a hundred, persons of mere effrontery--in a word, busy-bodies, toadies, quacks."--Edgar Allan Poe
"In chess what counts is what you know, not whom you know. It's the way life is supposed to be, democratic and just."--Grandmaster Larry Evans
"It's not nuclear physics. You always remember that. But if you write about sports long enough, you're constantly coming back to the point that something buoys people; something makes you feel better for having been there. Something of value is at work there...Something is hallowed here. I think that something is excellence."--Tom Callahan
