Things We Learned from the Celtics' 120-117 Win Versus the Cavaliers
The Boston Celtics built a 21 point lead, withstood a 34-15 run over a seven minute span in the third quarter, and defeated the Cleveland Cavaliers 120-117 in Boston to end Cleveland's season-opening 15 game winning streak. The 15-1 Cavaliers still have the best record in the NBA, 2.5 games ahead of the 12-3 Celtics. It must be emphasized that the Celtics won this game without the
services of Kristaps Porzingis, their starting center (and a 2018 All-Star)
who has yet to play this season due to a lower left leg injury. Assuming
that Porzingis makes a full recovery, adding him to the lineup bolsters
the Celtics at both ends of the court because of his rebounding, shot blocking/rim protection, and range shooting.
Jayson Tatum had a masterful all-around game with a team-high 33 points on 11-22 field goal shooting, a game-high 12 rebounds, and seven assists. Al Horford added 20 points and seven rebounds, Derrick White contributed 19 points, six rebounds, and five assists, and Jaylen Brown chipped in 17 points and a game-high eight assists.
Donovan Mitchell scored a game-high 35 points, Evan Mobley had 22 points and a team-high tying 11 rebounds, and Jarrett Allen scored 10 points while matching Mobley with 11 rebounds. Darius Garland dished for a team-high seven assists but he scored just eight points on 3-21 field goal shooting.
At the end of the 82 game regular season, each game counts the same in the standings, but anyone who follows the NBA knows that some games have a different feel not only for ardent fans but also for the players. "Statement game" is a cliche, but this was without question a measuring stick game for the Cavaliers to see how they stack up with the NBA champion Boston Celtics. Casual fans often call the NBA a fourth quarter league, but the fact is that the NBA is in many respects a first quarter league, because the first quarter sets the tone in terms of matchups, physicality, and general readiness to play. The Celtics jumped out to an 18-8 lead by the 5:36 mark of the first quarter, and they never trailed the rest of the way.
The Celtics shot 14-22 (.636) from three point range in the first half, their best three point shooting half in the past 25 years. That level of three point shooting is aberrational and unsustainable, and they shot 8-19 (.421) from beyond the arc in the second half to finish at 22-41 (.537) overall.
The easy hot take is that the Celtics beat the Cavaliers because of their tremendous three point shooting, and that the Celtics have a great chance to win the 2025 championship because they rank first in three point field goals made and first in three point field goals attempted. High volume three point shooting is lauded by "stat gurus" as the most efficient offensive strategy, but the reality is that it is a high variance strategy, as I explained four years ago:
Offensive efficiency is not all that matters when trying to construct a championship team: the three point shot produces much more variance statistically than shots taken closer to the basket, meaning that a team that shoots .380 from three point range may shoot .250 from three point range in one game and then .510 from three point range the next game. If a team shoots a high volume of three pointers then it will almost certainly lose when shooting .250 from three point range, but that team is not assured of victory even when shooting .510 from three point range: a team that relies too heavily on three point shooting does not have a backup plan to use when those shots are not falling, but that team's opponents may be able to overcome giving up .510 three point shooting by forcing turnovers, winning the rebound battle, and attacking the paint for high percentage shots.Last season, the Celtics ranked second in defensive field goal percentage, second in rebounding, and fifth in points allowed. In the article cited above, I debunked the notion that high volume three point shooting defined the success of the Golden State Warriors, the team that is most closely associated with the NBA's three point revolution in the past decade or so:
There is a false narrative that the Golden State Warriors proved that a three point shooting team can win an NBA title. The Warriors proved nothing of the sort. From 2015-2019, the Warriors ranked first, third, first, third, and third in defensive field goal percentage; not only did they have a backup plan if they suffered from cold three point shooting: they had a primary plan, namely make it very difficult for their opponents to score. Also, the Warriors did not become a championship dynasty until they added Kevin Durant, who added deadly midrange scoring (and, to be sure, another three point shooter) to the three point marksmanship provided by Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson.I wrote that article in 2020, so it is worth adding that the 2022 Golden State Warriors--who beat the Celtics in the NBA Finals--ranked second in defensive field goal percentage, third in points allowed, and seventh in rebounding.
"Stat gurus" often tout themselves as emotionally detached objective analysts, but in fact they speak and behave as if they are members of a cult that propagates rigid tenets regardless of what the factual evidence shows (this is part of a larger societal trend of "experts" who insist that their deeply held beliefs are correct even if those beliefs defy not only common sense but also the facts). This season's Celtics have dropped to 12th in points allowed, 20th in defensive field goal percentage, and 21st in rebounding. The difference between the Celtics and many of the other teams that have low rankings in those categories is that the Celtics proved last season that they have the necessary personnel to rebound and defend at a high level; that being said, they must get to work in those areas, because they are unlikely to repeat as champions unless they reestablish their defensive identity and their paint presence at both ends of the court. In that regard, it is interesting to note that the Cavaliers outscored the Celtics in the paint 60-36. If Garland had performed anywhere close to his usual standard, then the Cavaliers would have won even with the Celtics shooting an outlandish three point percentage.
The Celtics shot 18-35 (.514) in the paint, which demonstrates two things: (1) when the Celtics attacked the paint they were efficient, and (2) the Celtics should attack the paint more often instead of relying so heavily on high variance three point shooting. The 2025 championship recipe for the Celtics is (1) attack the paint more often than they are doing now, (2) shore up their leaky defense, and (3) utilize the three point shot effectively based on time/score/overall game situation as opposed to seeking to attempt at least 50 three pointers a game (a stated goal of Coach Joe Mazzulla, who has done a wonderful job overall but who seems a little bit too obsessed with three point shot attempts as an indicator of offensive efficiency).
We are already nearly 20% through the 2024-25 NBA regular season, so it
is not too early to at least make preliminary assessments of teams and
players. Here is something to clip and save: the 11-4 Oklahoma City Thunder currently rank first in defensive field goal percentage and second in points allowed, but just 23rd in rebounding. Will the Thunder's stout defense be enough to make up for their lack of size and their weakness on the glass? The Cavaliers are similarly weak in rebounding (24th) and they are not in the top 10 in defensive field goal percentage (12th) or points allowed (13th). We will know more about these teams after they have played a larger sample size of games, but these rankings and trends bear watching, because at this point neither the Cavaliers nor the Celtics are defending or rebounding at a championship level. By the way, the defending Western Conference champion Dallas Mavericks are flying underneath the radar with an 8-7 record but they rank fifth in points allowed, sixth in defensive field goal percentage, and 11th in rebounding, numbers that suggest they will finish higher in the standings than they are right now.
The above analysis should not be taken to diminish the value of Boston's win over Cleveland. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have already proven that they can lead the Celtics to victory against elite teams in a playoff series: their Celtics have won two Eastern Conference Finals (2022, 2024) and one NBA championship (2024). The Celtics demonstrated that they can defend and rebound at an elite level. In contrast, this version of the Cavaliers has yet to advance past the second round of the playoffs, and must prove that they are capable of beating elite teams in a playoff series.
Labels: Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis
posted by David Friedman @ 11:49 AM
