Nets Beat Undermanned Pelicans
In a matchup of the third seeded teams in each conference, the Brooklyn Nets defeated the New Orleans Pelicans, 108-102. The Pelicans led by as many as 15 points in the first half, but were doomed by cold second half shooting (16-44, including 2-12 from three point range). Kevin Durant scored a game-high 33 points but shot just 9-26 from the field. He also had a game-high 10 rebounds, plus two blocked shots. Kyrie Irving struggled for most of the game before scoring 10 of the Nets' 20 fourth quarter points to finish with 19 points on 7-22 field goal shooting. Irving provided 10 of the Nets' 20 fourth quarter points. T.J. Warren scored 15 points off of the bench in just 24 minutes.
C.J. McCollum led the Pelicans with 28 points on 9-24 field goal shooting and Naji Marshall added a career-high 23 points on 6-11 field goal shooting. Jonas Valanciunas had 12 points and a game-high 10 rebounds as the Pelicans outrebounded the Nets 51-43, but even with those extra possessions the Pelicans could not make up for the absences of injured stars Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram.
The Nets have won 17 of their last 19 games, and the Pelicans have been a pleasant surprise despite key players missing a large number of games. Should either of these teams be considered championship contenders based not just on this game but on their overall body of work and their potential?
The Nets have had a tumultuous season. Coach Steve Nash departed after the team started 2-5, at the same time that the Nets suspended Kyrie Irving for unrepentant antisemitism. Ben Simmons did not look sharp in the early going, and he missed four of the team's first 10 games. On November 25, the Nets were 9-11 before embarking on their current surge. However, the Nets' recent success includes wins versus many non-contending teams, including Atlanta (twice), Charlotte (twice), Toronto (twice), Washington (twice), Detroit, Orlando, and San Antonio. The Nets beat Golden State sans Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson.
Are the Nets legitimate contenders? Kevin Durant owns two NBA title and two NBA Finals MVPs, while Kyrie Irving has already been the second option on a championship team. Ben Simmons is capable of being an elite playmaker and an elite defensive player who can guard multiple positions. If those three stars are healthy, the Nets can be very good--but, for a variety of reasons, each of those players has missed substantial playing time in recent seasons.
The Nets lack size, and consequently rank 29th in the league in
rebounding. Their defensive numbers look good, but--as noted above--they
have recently feasted on weak competition. The Nets have not proven
that they can rebound and defend at a high level against elite teams.
Since Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving joined the team in 2019, the Nets
have only won one playoff series.
The Nets are capable of being a legitimate contender, but until they prove otherwise in the crucible of postseason play they should not be ranked ahead of the Boston Celtics and the Milwaukee Bucks, regardless of regular season records and regular season winning streaks.
Entering play tonight, the New Orleans Pelicans had the third best record in the Western Conference, just a game behind the Denver Nuggets and Memphis Grizzlies. The Pelicans accomplished this despite Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram missing substantial playing time. C.J. McCollum (20.2 ppg, 6.0 apg) has played well, and the Pelicans are a rugged, scrappy team that ranks second in steals, fourth in scoring, and sixth in rebounding; their depth has helped mitigate the absences of Williamson and Ingram, but this team is unlikely to advance past the first round of the playoffs without Williamson and Ingram.
The Pelicans' potential is tantalizing, but Williamson and Ingram being out of the lineup is not surprising; Ingram has not played more than 62 games in a season since his rookie campaign (2016-17), while Williamson missed the entire 2021-22 season due to injury after playing just 85 games combined in his first two seasons. Williamson and Ingram are also players who primarily impact the game offensively, so even if they are healthy at playoff time they have not proven that they are willing or able to do enough defensively to lead a team to a playoff series win.
Are the Pelicans a contender? Until their two best players (1) stay healthy and (2) prove that they are committed to playing defense the Pelicans will not be a contender.
Labels: Ben Simmons, Brandon Ingram, Brooklyn Nets, C.J. McCollum, Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, New Orleans Pelicans, Zion Williamson
posted by David Friedman @ 11:27 PM
Winning Players Versus Stat-Padding Players
What is the best way to determine if a player is primarily focused on team success as opposed to being primarily focused on stat-padding? There is not one statistic or one observation to definitively prove this, but there are several methods that can at least bring us close to the truth.
I consume a lot of NBA content via TV, radio, and print. It is fascinating how often various "experts" assert that (1) the Dallas Mavericks cannot win a championship with Luka Doncic playing the way that he currently plays, and that (2) LeBron James makes the L.A. Lakers a dangerous team that no one wants to face in the playoffs.
Luka Doncic is in good company as a superstar whose ability to win a championship is doubted. Many "experts" declared that Michael Jordan would never win a championship because Jordan was supposedly too selfish and too focused on winning scoring titles--and then Jordan won six NBA titles and six NBA Finals MVPs along with a record 10 scoring titles. Many "experts" declared that Shaquille O'Neal would never win a championship because he was a poor free throw shooter--and then O'Neal won four NBA titles and three NBA Finals MVPs. Many "experts" declared that Kobe Bryant would never win a championship because Bryant was supposedly too selfish and too focused on individual glory--and then Bryant won three NBA titles alongside O'Neal. After the Lakers traded O'Neal, many "experts" declared that Bryant would never win a championship without O'Neal--and then Bryant won two more NBA titles and two NBA Finals MVPs.
That is not to suggest that Doncic is as great or will become as great as Jordan, O'Neal, or Bryant; the point is that for several decades the "experts" have not provided much insight about the future championship prospects of great players.
Last season, Doncic led the Mavericks to the Western Conference Finals for the first time since Dirk Nowitzki carried the Mavericks to the 2011 NBA title. Prior to tonight's game versus the Boston Celtics, the Mavericks are 22-13 this season with Doncic and 0-3 without him. The Mavericks are enjoying a seven game winning streak, their longest winning streak since their 2010-11 championship campaign. Doncic is leading the NBA in scoring (career-high 34.3 ppg) while posting career-highs in FG% (.507), assists (8.9 apg), and steals (1.7 spg). Doncic is not a great defensive player, but he ranks seventh in the league in defensive rebounds and sixth in the league in steals, so there are ways that he impacts the game positively on defense. The eye test shows that he is in better shape and has better stamina than he had early in his career.
A great player needs help to win a championship, and it remains to be seen if Doncic has or will get enough help, but there is no evidence supporting the contention that the Mavericks cannot win a championship with Doncic playing the way he is playing. Doncic is playing a better, more well-rounded game than other players who have led teams to championships.
LeBron James has already won four NBA titles and four NBA Finals MVPs, so there is no question about his ability to lead a team to a title. He is more productive than any 38 year old or 20 year veteran has ever been. However, the above facts do not prove that he is currently playing like a championship level player, nor do they prove that he makes the Lakers a dangerous team that no one wants to face in the playoffs. In his four full seasons as a Laker, the Lakers have won one title but they have also missed the playoffs twice and lost once in the first round. The Lakers are currently in 12th place in the Western Conference, and thus would not even qualify for the Play-In Tournament if the season ended today. The Lakers are 13-16 this season with James and 4-5 without him.
Throughout his career, James' strongest offensive weapon has been driving to the basket, but this season he is attempting 6.8 three pointers per game (the second highest number of his career) while attempting just 5.7 free throws per game (tied for the lowest number of his career). Overall, James is attempting 22.1 field goals per game (the second highest number of his career).
The eye test reveals that James does not have the same defensive impact that he used to have, which is not surprising considering his age and years of service. The numbers support the eye test, as his steals and blocked shots are below his career averages (though he is still an excellent defensive rebounder).
It is no secret that James is less than 500 points away from breaking Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's career regular season scoring record--and it is obvious that James' primary goal right now is breaking that record, not winning games or championships. As the team's de facto General Manager, James traded away young players who may or may not have become championship level players in order to acquire Anthony Davis, which resulted in winning one title but will also probably result in the Lakers being a non-contender for the foreseeable future.
Unless or until James plays differently and unless or until Anthony Davis demonstrates that he can remain healthy and focused, no team fears playing the Lakers in the playoffs--assuming that the Lakers can even make the playoffs, which is far from certain.
This does not mean that Doncic will have a greater career than James, or that James is having a bad season. James is having a very productive season, but the eye test and the numbers both show that he is primarily focused on breaking the scoring record, because he is not playing the way that he played when he led teams to championships.
Labels: L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Luka Doncic
posted by David Friedman @ 9:09 PM
Antetokounmpo Scores Career-High 55 Points, Logs Third Straight 40-10-5 Game
Giannis Antetokounmpo's 55 point performance last night while leading Milwaukee to a 123-113 win over Washington not only established a new single game career-high but is also his third straight game with at least 40 points, at least 10 rebounds, and at least five assists. Antetokounmpo shot 20-33 from the field and 15-16 from the free throw line while also grabbing 10 rebounds and passing for a game-high seven assists. Antekounmpo is just the third Milwaukee Buck to have three straight 40 point games, joining Flynn Robinson (February 1969), and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (February 1972). Abdul-Jabbar averaged 39.3 ppg, 15.6 rpg, and 5.8 apg in February 1972 en route to winning his second consecutive scoring title with a career-high 34.8 ppg average.
Only three players other than Antetokounmpo have had three straight 40-10-5 games: Elgin Baylor (1961 and 1963), Wilt Chamberlain (1963), and Russell Westbrook (2016). We should not just glide past those names. Here are Baylor's numbers during his 1961 streak:
1) 50 points (17-34 FG, 16-22 FT), 20 rebounds, seven assists as his L.A. Lakers defeated the Syracuse Nationals 131-120 on December 4, 1961.
2) 45 points (15-39 FG, 15-18 FT), 25 rebounds, eight assists as his L.A. Lakers defeated the Syracuse Nationals 125-120 on December 5, 1961.
3) 47 points (17-43 FG, 13-22 FT), 23 rebounds, eight assists as his L.A. Lakers defeated the Syracuse Nationals 123-121 on December 6, 1961.
4) 63 points (23-55 FG, 17-24 FT), 31 rebounds, seven assists as his L.A. Lakers defeated the Philadelphia Warriors 151-147 on December 8, 1961.
During that four game stretch, Baylor averaged 51.3 ppg, 24.8 rpg, and 7.5 apg while shooting .421 from the field and .709 from the free throw line. "Stat gurus" may grumble about Baylor's shooting percentages, but his productivity was off the charts and his team won all four games. He did not "merely" post 40-10-5, but he posted at least 45-20-7 in each of those four games!
It is also worth emphasizing that Baylor's Lakers played games on three straight days and they played four games in a five day period. No load management back then! The fourth game is notable because Wilt Chamberlain scored 78 points and grabbed 43 rebounds in a losing effort, one of a record six times that Chamberlain scored at least 70 points in a game.
Antetokounmpo is on pace to average more than 30 ppg, more than 10 rpg, and more than 5 apg while also shooting better than .500 from the field; the only other players to post such statistics are Wilt Chamberlain (twice), and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar.
The Bucks have struggled recently, losing four of their previous five games and six of their previous 10 games prior to beating the Wizards. The main problem has been injuries/illnesses: Antetokounmpo did not play in Sunday's loss to the Wizards because of left knee soreness, Khris Middleton has not played since December 15 because of a right knee injury, and Jrue Holiday missed three games because of a non-COVID illness before logging just 19 minutes last night versus the Wizards.
If the Bucks can get healthy (and stay healthy), then they will be very difficult to beat in a seven game playoff series, particularly if Antetokounmpo keeps playing at a historically great level.
Labels: Elgin Baylor, Flynn Robinson, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Milwaukee Bucks, Russell Westbrook, Wilt Chamberlain
posted by David Friedman @ 7:32 PM
Donovan Mitchell Joins the Elite 70 Point Game Club
Last night, Donovan Mitchell scored 71 points as his Cleveland Cavaliers defeated the Chicago Bulls 145-134 in overtime. Mitchell shot 22-34 from the field, including 7-15 from three point
range, and he shot 20-25 from the free throw line. He also had 11
assists, becoming the first player to post double digit assists in a 70
point game. Mitchell scored 13 of Cleveland's 15 overtime points. Gilbert Arenas holds the regular season overtime period scoring record
(16 points), while Stephen Curry holds the playoff overtime period
scoring record (17 points).
Mitchell's career-high and franchise best performance is just the second 70 point game that required at least one
overtime period; on December 6, 1961, Chamberlain scored 78 points for
the Philadelphia Warriors in a 151-147 triple overtime loss to the L.A.
Lakers. The only players who scored more than 78 points in an NBA game
are Chamberlain--whose record 100 point game will probably never be matched--and Kobe Bryant, who scored 81 points as his L.A. Lakers beat the Toronto Raptors on January 22, 2006.
Mitchell is just the seventh player in pro basketball history to score at least 70 points in a game. Chamberlain, who had six 70 point games, is the only player with multiple 70 point games. Elgin Baylor scored a then-record 71 points on November 15, 1960 as his L.A. Lakers defeated the New York Knicks 123-108. Chamberlain's 78 point game broke Baylor's record, and then a few months later Chamberlain had his legendary 100 point game.
The third player to have a 70 point game is David Thompson, who scored
73 points in the final game of the 1977-78 season but still lost the
closest scoring title race ever after George Gervin answered with a 63
point outburst. The next 70 point game took place 16 years later, when David Robinson poured in 71 points to win the scoring title over Shaquille O'Neal. Bryant joined the 70 Point Club 12 years later, and then 11 years passed before Devin Booker scored 70 points in a 10 point loss after his Phoenix Suns repeatedly committed fouls at the end of the game so that Booker could get more shot attempts.
Mitchell's performance was sensational, and much more legitimate than Booker's not just because Mitchell's team won but also because Mitchell's scoring was essential for the win. That being said, Booker and Mitchell are without question the least accomplished members of the 70 Point Club, as Baylor, Chamberlain, and Bryant are Pantheon members while Robinson is one of the NBA's 50 Greatest Players and Thompson is a Hall of Famer who was an MVP caliber player in the mid to late 1970s before drug abuse derailed his career.
Not counting Chamberlain--whose name dominates the NBA record book--the NBA has seen less than one 70 point game per decade, so even in this era when it is easier to score than ever it may take 10 years before anyone matches what Mitchell did last night.
Labels: David Robinson, David Thompson, Devin Booker, Donovan Mitchell, Elgin Baylor, Kobe Bryant, Wilt Chamberlain
posted by David Friedman @ 10:26 PM
