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Saturday, May 28, 2022

Butler Powers Heat to Game Six Win in Boston

Have I mentioned once or many times that playoff momentum is a myth? The Miami Heat looked dead after losing game five of the Eastern Conference Finals at home to the Boston Celtics--and many commentators spent most of Thursday reciting (premature) eulogies for the Heat--but Jimmy Butler's historic game six performance means that the Heat are now one home win away from making their second NBA Finals appearance in the past three seasons. 

Butler scored 47 points, grabbed nine rebounds, dished for eight assists, and swiped four steals while playing 46 minutes as his Heat defeated the Celtics 111-103. Butler shot 16-29 from the field (including 4-8 from three point range), he made all 11 of his free throw attempts, and he committed just one turnover. Per the ESPN telecast, he is the only player other than Michael Jordan to have two games with at least 40 points and at least four steals in the same playoff series. Butler not only set a franchise record for most points scored in an elimination game, but his output ranks seventh in NBA history in an elimination game. Elgin Baylor holds the record (61), Wilt Chamberlain scored more than 50 points in three elimination games, and both Sleepy Floyd and Jamal Murray had exactly 50 points in an elimination game. 

Another recurring theme that I have mentioned is that the NBA is often described as a fourth quarter league but that the NBA is in fact a first quarter league in the sense that matchups and tendencies from early in the game tend to foreshadow the final outcome. In the first quarter of game six, Butler scored 14 points on 6-10 field goal shooting while grabbing five rebounds and passing for four assists. He scored or assisted on 24 of Miami's 29 first quarter points as the Heat jumped out to a 10 point lead and were still on top by seven after the first 12 minutes. Butler established his dominance early in the game, and his dominance proved to be the main story.

Butler received help from Miami's recently maligned starting backcourt of Kyle Lowry and Max Strus. Lowry scored 18 points and dished a game-high 10 assists before fouling out. He shot poorly from the field (5-14) but he gave the Heat a much needed lift. Strus added 13 points on 5-12 field goal shooting before he fouled out. Those totals and percentages may not seem impressive, but Lowry and Strus were the team's second and third leading scorers in a must-win road playoff game. P.J. Tucker contributed 11 points, five rebounds, and his usual bulldog-style defense.

Jayson Tatum led the Celtics with 30 points on 9-12 field goal shooting. He had nine rebounds and four assists, but he also coughed up seven turnovers. The Heat forced him toward help defenders, and deftly swiped the ball away when he tried his spin move. It may seem paradoxical to say, but it is equally true that Tatum played very well in some respects and yet not well enough overall. 

Derrick White added 22 points and five assists off of the bench. In the past few games, he has emerged as a key weapon for the Celtics. Jaylen Brown had 20 points, six rebounds, and five assists. Marcus Smart scored 14 points, but he shot just 4-15 from the field, and the 2022 NBA Defensive Player of the Year failed to contain Butler--not that it is easy to do so or that Butler's big performance is solely his fault.

The Heat led for most of the game, but unlike the other games in this series the margin never reached blowout proportions. The Celtics hung around, and after White's three pointer gave them a 97-94 lead with 4:43 remaining in the fourth quarter it would have been reasonable to think that the home team had weathered the storm before arriving safely to port--but the Heat outscored the Celtics 16-6 down the stretch, with Butler (seven points) and Lowry (five points) doing most of the late damage. Butler scored 17 fourth quarter points on 6-9 field goal shooting. His 27 total points in the past three games are a distant memory now--the Celtics cannot afford to think about the past, because their future holds a do or die game seven on the road against a team that does not give up and does not pay attention to doubters.

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posted by David Friedman @ 1:23 AM

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The NBA and Its Media Partners Continue to Ignore the ABA's History and Statistics

Can you imagine the NFL or its media partners discussing the league's history, statistics, and great players without mentioning legendary AFL players and teams? Joe Namath's guarantee prior to the New York Jets' Super Bowl III upset win over the Baltimore Colts is one of the most iconic moments in pro football history. 

In sad and inexcusable contrast, the NBA ignores the ABA's history and statistics. This leads to absurd conversations like the one that took place on ESPN's pregame show prior to game six of the Eastern Conference Finals when the panel debated where Stephen Curry should rank all-time. The consensus was that Curry probably does not belong in the top 10, and the debate focused on whether or not Curry has surpassed Julius Erving and Moses Malone, two players who ESPN has determined rank in the top 20 but not the top 10. ESPN graphics listing the players' career accomplishments and honors asserted that Erving won one regular season MVP, one championship, and no Finals MVPs. This is equivalent to asserting that Joe Namath's AFL statistics and honors should not be counted. Not counting ABA records does not harm Malone as much as Erving because Malone's ABA career was shorter and less distinguished than Erving's, but one also gets the sense that Malone is somehow "tainted" because he did not spend his entire career in the NBA. Is there any three-time regular season MVP whose career is as ignored as Malone's? How many fans realize that Malone won the same number of MVPs as Larry Bird and Magic Johnson? 

Regarding Erving, no matter how often the NBA and its media partners deny history, these are the facts: Erving won four regular season MVPs, three championships, and two Finals MVPs. Further, in the 1976 ABA Finals, Erving played at a level that Curry cannot even dream of reaching: Erving led both teams in scoring (37.7 ppg), rebounding (14.2 rpg), assists (6.0 apg), steals (3.0 spg) and blocked shots (2.2 bpg). Who was Erving competing against in that series? Just a Denver Nuggets team coached by Hall of Fame Coach Larry Brown, and led by Hall of Fame players David Thompson, Dan Issel, and Bobby Jones. 

Erving still belongs in the greatest player of all-time conversation; pretending that he is fighting for a spot in the top 20 and that he has been surpassed by a 6-3 guard is ridiculous. The only player shorter than 6-5 whose impact can be compared with Erving's is Jerry West. 

Before Curry is compared to players like Erving and Malone, he needs to surpass a few more of his contemporaries. There is no question that Curry was the second best player behind Kevin Durant on Golden State's 2017 and 2018 championship teams. If the Warriors win the 2022 championship that will not retroactively change what happened in 2017 and 2018. Durant may be a borderline Pantheon player, but Curry is definitely behind Durant (and not next in line, either).

Curry is a great player, and this article is not meant to bash him. I enjoy watching Curry play, and I think that he represents a lot of what is great about basketball, including his skill set development, his superior conditioning, and his unselfishness. The issue is not Curry or anything that he has accomplished; the issue is that the NBA is doing the sport of basketball a great disservice by ignoring vast swaths of history.

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posted by David Friedman @ 12:51 AM

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Friday, May 27, 2022

Warriors Lead Wire to Wire, Defeat Mavericks to Advance to the NBA Finals

On Thursday night, we saw once again that momentum in the playoffs is a myth. In game four of the Western Conference Finals, the Dallas Mavericks built a 99-70 lead en route to a 119-109 win to avoid being swept--but in game five, the Warriors led wire to wire, and closed out the series with a 120-110 win to advance to the NBA Finals for the sixth time in eight years, a feat that has not been accomplished since the Chicago Bulls won six championships from 1991-98. Klay Thompson had his best game of the series, pouring in a game-high 32 points on 12-25 field goal shooting, including 8-16 from three point range. All five Golden State starters scored in double figures, as did sixth man Jordan Poole, who finished with 16 points, six rebounds, and six assists. Andrew Wiggins had 18 points and 10 rebounds while continuing to be the primary defender versus Luka Doncic. Draymond Green scored 17 points on 6-7 field goal shooting, and he also had a game-high nine assists. Stephen Curry did not shoot well (5-17 from the field) but he accumulated 15 points while matching Green with nine assists. Although game five was not a vintage performance for the two-time regular season MVP, Curry received the first annual Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP. Kevon Looney snared a game-high 18 rebounds while also chipping in 10 points and four assists.

Luka Doncic led the Mavericks with 28 points, but he shot just 10-28 from the field. He only scored six first half points, his lowest first half scoring total this season (regular season and playoffs included), but he scored 15 third quarter points on 5-8 field goal shooting as the Mavericks made one last desperate attempt to extend their season. The Mavericks cut a 21 point lead to eight points (92-84) with 34.2 seconds left in the third quarter, but Poole's layup before the end of the quarter pushed the Warriors' lead back to 10 points, and the Warriors maintained a double digit lead the rest of the way. Doncic received little help outside of Spencer Dinwiddie, who had 26 points on 7-12 field goal shooting.

The Mavericks reached the Western Conference Finals for the first time since their 2011 championship run, but next season they will face the challenge of proving that this season set a foundation and was not a fluke; it is not uncommon for a team to jump out of the woodwork to make one Conference Finals appearance only to fall back to the pack, as happened with the Atlanta Hawks the past couple seasons.

The Warriors await the winner of the Eastern Conference Finals; the Boston Celtics lead the Miami Heat 3-2, and can eliminate the Heat with a win at home tonight. Curry owns three championship rings, but no Finals MVPs. A fourth ring--particularly if accompanied by a Finals MVP award--will elevate Curry's historical status in the eyes of many, though it should be noted that these Warriors won their first championship versus a hobbled Cleveland team, and then won their next two championships with Kevin Durant serving as the clear number one option.

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posted by David Friedman @ 1:01 AM

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Wednesday, May 25, 2022

Celtics Chill Heat With Second Half Surge

The Boston Celtics broke open a tightly contested game five with a 24-2 second half run en route to beating the Miami Heat 93-80 to take a 3-2 Eastern Conference Finals lead. The Celtics can advance to the NBA Finals by winning game six at home on Friday night. Jaylen Brown scored a game-high 25 points on 10-19 field goal shooting, and he had a game-best +20 plus/minus number. Jayson Tatum struggled with his shot for most of the game, but he finished with 22 points on 7-20 field goal shooting plus game high totals in rebounds (12) and assists (nine). Al Horford had a significant impact with 16 points, seven rebounds, and five assists. Derrick White added 14 points and five assists off of the bench.

The Heat played solid defense but they could not survive their horrific shooting: 30-94 from the field (.319), including an abysmal 7-45 (.156) from beyond the arc. The Heat set a franchise single game record for missed three pointers. Bam Adebayo led the Heat with 18 points on 8-15 field goal shooting, and he also had 10 rebounds, while Gabe Vincent provided 15 points off of the bench on 6-12 field goal shooting, but the other Heat players combined to shoot 16-67 from the field (.239). Jimmy Butler, the Heat's best player, scored just 13 points on 4-18 field goal shooting. Miami's starting backcourt of Kyle Lowry and Max Strus shot a combined 0-15 from the field after shooting a combined 1-13 from the field in game four.

Both teams have players who are persevering through a variety of injuries, but the Celtics' superior size and skill are wearing down the Heat. This game was a microcosm of the series. Early in the second quarter, Miami led 21-17. At that point, Miami had shot 1-11 from three point range, and Boston had shot 1-9 from three point range. Many NBA teams rely too much on three point shooting, and this high variance style of play is a major reason that teams build (and then often squander) big leads. Over time, size and skill prevail because the bigger, more skillful team can score in the paint and in the midrange game while smaller, less skillful teams are forced (or choose) to rely on getting hot from long distance. 

As the game progressed, the Celtics demonstrated that they could score in the paint and in the midrange game. Their ability and willingness to attack from other areas of the court eventually unlocked their long distance game as well, and they shot 9-24 from three point range after their slow start. Meanwhile, with Butler struggling and Lowry unable to make a shot at all, the Heat jacked up three pointers and hoped for the best. More than a fourth of the Heat's field goal attempts in game five were three pointers fired by Duncan Robinson, Max Strus, and Gabe Vincent--and they combined to shoot 4-24 from beyond the arc. With all due respect to those players, that kind of shot distribution is not a recipe for success in the Eastern Conference Finals. 

It seems like a long time ago that some commentators insisted that the Celtics should break up the Jayson Tatum-Jaylen Brown duo. The Celtics ignored that noise, made their fourth trip to the Eastern Conference Finals in the past six years, and are in great position to reach the NBA Finals for the first time since 2010.

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posted by David Friedman @ 11:44 PM

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Mavericks Rain on Warriors' Parade

Rain delays are unusual in the NBA, but the rain delay prior to the second half of game four of the Western Conference Finals foreshadowed the shots that the Dallas Mavericks rained on the Golden State Warriors during the third quarter of a 119-109 win. Dallas led 62-47 after two quarters when a leak in the roof of American Airlines Center delayed the start of the second half; several arena workers dried the court with towels, while other arena workers constructed a makeshift barrier to prevent any more water from falling onto the court. After the arena workers contained the rain, the Mavericks rained eight three pointers on the Warriors in the next 12 minutes, pushing the lead to 99-70 entering the fourth quarter. The Mavericks then sleepwalked through most of the final stanza, forcing Coach Jason Kidd to reinsert his starters. The Warriors cut the margin to 110-102 with 3:23 remaining, but Luka Doncic's driving dunk restored order for the Mavericks, whose lead did not fall below 10 points the rest of the way as the Mavericks posted their first Western Conference Finals win since the team's 2011 championship season.

The Mavericks shot 41-82 (.500) from the field overall, including 20-43 (.465) from three point range. The Mavericks are going to shoot a ton of three pointers no matter what, but the keys to this victory were that the Mavericks won the rebounding battle 45-42 while also scoring efficiently in the paint instead of just relying on feast or famine long range shooting. Doncic, who was named to the All-NBA First Team earlier in the day, led both teams in points (30), rebounds (14), and assists (nine). He did not shoot well from the field (10-26), but he had a +13 plus/minus number in 38 minutes. Dorian Finney-Smith scored 23 points on 9-13 field goal shooting, and he had a game-best +18 plus/minus number. Reggie Bullock (18 points on 6-10 field goal shooting) also had an efficient game. Jalen Brunson chipped in 15 points and five assists with no turnovers. 

Stephen Curry led the Warriors with 20 points and eight assists. The Warriors' next two scorers were bench players Jonathan Kuminga (17 points) and Jordan Poole (14 points). The Warriors' starters lacked energy and urgency, but the bench players keyed a huge fourth quarter rally in which Golden State outscored Dallas 39-20; bench players scored 32 of the Warriors' 39 points. During that big run, the Warriors played a zone defense and the Mavericks went cold from three point range, shooting just 1-7 from beyond the arc in the final 12 minutes. The Warriors shot 15-20 (.750) from the field in the fourth quarter, including 4-4 on three pointers. The Mavericks have a disturbing pattern of not playing much defense if their shots are not falling. Nevertheless, even though the ending was a bit shaky the Mavericks got the job done and extended the series.

The Mavericks overcame a 1-0 deficit to beat the Utah Jazz in the first round before overcoming a 2-0 hole to knock off the number one seeded Phoenix Suns in the second round. Those comebacks are impressive, but not unprecedented. Are the Mavericks content to not be swept in the Western Conference Finals, or are they stubborn enough to try to make history and become the first NBA team to win a playoff series after trailing 3-0? The Mavericks do not have to win three games at once. They have to win one game at a time three times, and in order to win game five on the road they must attack the paint on offense while controlling the boards at both ends of the court. The odds are that the Warriors will close out the series at home, but if this series returns to Dallas for game six then things will start to get interesting.

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posted by David Friedman @ 12:37 AM

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Tuesday, May 24, 2022

Celtics Freeze Heat, Tie Eastern Conference Finals at 2-2

Even a cursory examination of the 2022 Eastern Conference Finals should be enough to put to rest the notion that momentum exists in an NBA playoff series. In every game in this series, at least one team has had a lead of at least 20 points. In game one, Miami overcame a 13 point deficit to lead by 20 points before winning, 118-107. In game two, Boston won, 127-102. In game three, Miami jumped out to a 46-20 lead before winning 109-103. In game four on Monday night, the Celtics started the game with an 18-1 run, and built a 32 point lead en route to a wire to wire 102-82 victory. The Heat's one point in the game's first eight minutes is the lowest point total in that time span in a playoff game in the past 25 years. 

Jayson Tatum led the Celtics with a game-high 31 points. He also had eight rebounds, five assists, two blocked shots, and a game-best +37 plus/minus number. Tatum scored 24 points in the first half. Payton Pritchard was the unlikely second leading scorer for the Celtics with 14 points, followed closely by Derrick White (who scored 13 points while starting in place of the injured Marcus Smart), Jaylen Brown (12 points on 5-20 field goal shooting), and Robert Williams III (12 points plus nine rebounds and two blocked shots). Al Horford only scored five points, but he had a game-high 13 rebounds, and his plus/minus number (+33) was second only to Tatum's. Every Boston starter grabbed at least seven rebounds, while in contrast Jimmy Butler led the Heat with seven rebounds.

The Celtics dominated the Heat despite shooting just 31-78 from the field (.397), including 8-34 (.235) from three point range. The Celtics made up for their poor shooting by controlling the boards (60-39), and by shooting 32-38 from the free throw line compared to 8-14 free throw shooting by the Heat. The Heat compounded their problems by shooting even worse from the field (.333) than the Celtics did. This game was a classic example of how valuable size is, particularly when the bigger players are also more aggressive than the smaller players; undersized and lethargic is no way to win any basketball game, let alone an Eastern Conference Finals game. 

Victor Oladipo led the Heat with 23 points off of the bench. He outscored all five of the Heat's starters combined! Since the NBA started keeping separate statistics for starters more than 50 years ago, no starting lineup in a playoff game scored fewer points than the 18 scored by Miami's starters in this game. Duncan Robinson (14 points) and Caleb Martin (12 points) had solid games off of the bench. Bam Adebayo had more fouls (four) than field goals made (three). Jimmy Butler (six points on 3-14 field goal shooting) had more missed field goals than rebounds, assists, steals, and blocked shots combined. 

Despite such wild game to game swings, there are a few constants that can serve as guideposts for what to expect the rest of the way: defense, rebounding, and size travel well. Those are three advantages that the Celtics enjoy. On the other hand, the Celtics must win another game in Miami, but the Heat do not have to win another game in Boston. In a series in which each team has won a road game, the Heat's homecourt advantage does not appear to matter as much as the Celtics' defense, rebounding, and size; the Celtics can win in Miami, but the Heat are not likely to defend better, rebound better, or grow. It should be noted that injuries could be the X factor, as both teams are often uncertain who will be available to play until shortly before the opening tip.

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posted by David Friedman @ 1:51 AM

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Monday, May 23, 2022

Warriors Defeat Mavericks in Dallas to Take Commanding 3-0 Lead in Western Conference Finals

The Golden State Warriors are poised to make their sixth trip to the NBA Finals in the past eight seasons after defeating the Dallas Mavericks 109-100 to take a 3-0 lead in the Western Conference Finals. The Mavericks led 42-33 with 3:58 remaining in a low scoring, back and forth first half, but the Warriors went on a 10-0 run in less than two minutes to reclaim the lead. The Warriors led 48-47 at halftime, and they never trailed in the second half. 

Stephen Curry led the Warriors in scoring with 31 points, and he also had a game-high 11 assists. Andrew Wiggins, who is arguably the series MVP thus far, not only scored 27 points while also grabbing 11 rebounds, but he had a team-best +22 plus/minus number. The Warriors deliberately match his minutes with Luka Doncic's minutes, and Wiggins has been the primary defender against Doncic. Wiggins has not shut down Doncic--it is very difficult to shut down any elite scorer--but he has made Doncic work, and he has been solid enough defensively that the Warriors have not had to overly compromise their defense against other players. Klay Thompson did not shoot well (6-18 from the field), but he chipped in 19 points and seven rebounds while also playing excellent defense. Draymond Green (10 points, five rebounds, five assists), and Jordan Poole (10 points, five rebounds) did not post gaudy box score numbers, but they each contributed to the collective effort at both ends of the court that has proven to be too much for the Mavericks to match.

Doncic scored a game-high 40 points on 11-23 field goal shooting, including 4-9 from three point range. He attacked the hoop aggressively, and he shot 14-17 from the free throw line. Doncic had a team-high 11 rebounds. Spencer Dinwiddie poured in 26 points in just 32 minutes off of the bench, and Jalen Brunson added 20 points, but the other six Mavericks who played scored just 14 combined points. Most notably, Reggie Bullock scored no points on 0-10 field goal shooting, and Maxi Kleber scored no points on 0-5 field goal shooting. The Mavericks shot 30-75 (.400) from the field overall, including 13-45 (.289) from three point range.

For the past several years, the Warriors have often been depicted as a team that relies on three point shooting, but in fact the Warriors--when healthy and at their best--are a well-rounded team. In game three, the Warriors outrebounded the Mavericks 47-33, and the Warriors outscored the Mavericks 46-34 in the paint. The Warriors enjoyed advantages in both categories in their game two win. The series has been competitive at times, but the Warriors' 3-0 lead indicates that they are the superior team. No NBA team has come back from a 3-0 series deficit to win a playoff series, and based on what has happened thus far in this series there is little reason to believe that Dallas will become the first team to accomplish that feat.

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posted by David Friedman @ 1:26 AM

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Sunday, May 22, 2022

Miami Steals Game Three in Boston to Reclaim Homecourt Advantage

It is sometimes said that a team stole a game, but rarely has that been as literally true as it was when Miami beat Boston 109-103 to take a 2-1 lead in the Eastern Conference Finals. The Heat set a franchise playoff single game record with 19 steals, and they were credited with 33 points scored off of 24 Boston turnovers. Whether you praise Miami for forcing those miscues or blame Boston for being careless with the ball, the simple fact is that the Heat generated over 30% of their offense as a result of Boston giving up the ball without even attempting a shot. Three Heat players had four steals each: Bam Adebayo, Kyle Lowry, and Victor Oladipo. P.J. Tucker added three steals, and Jimmy Butler had two steals in just 19 minutes before a recurring knee injury sidelined him for the rest of the game. On the other side, Jaylen Brown led Boston with seven turnovers, and Jayson Tatum had six turnovers. 

Adebayo not only tied for game-high honors in steals, but he also led the Heat in scoring (31 points), rebounds (10), and assists (six) while shooting 15-22 from the field in a team-high 41:30 of playing time. P.J. Tucker (17 points) and Max Strus (16 points) were Miami's next two scorers. Oladipo scored just five points on 1-4 field goal shooting), but he played excellent defense, particularly against Brown.

The Celtics outrebounded the Heat 44-34, and they outshot the Heat from the field (.486 to .467), but those advantages were not quite enough to compensate for the Celtics' sloppy ballhandling. Brown scored a playoff career-high 40 points on 14-20 field goal shooting, and he ranked second on the team with nine rebounds. Al Horford added 20 points and a game-high 14 rebounds. Marcus Smart had 16 points and a game-high seven assists before fouling out with less than 40 seconds remaining in the game. Tatum struggled not only with turnovers but also with poor shooting as he scored just 10 points on 3-14 field goal shooting. It is difficult to win an NBA playoff game when your best player has twice as many turnovers as field goals made. To his credit, Tatum accepted full responsibility for his poor performance, declaring after the game, "Six turnovers and no field goals in the second half--that is unacceptable. Honestly, I've got to play better. I feel like I left the guys hanging tonight. That's on me."

If anyone still believes that there is momentum in a playoff series that carries over from game to game, the Heat shot holes in that notion by outscoring the Celtics 39-18 in the first quarter after being blown out by the Celtics in game two. The Heat annihilated the Celtics in the paint during the first 12 minutes, scoring 20 paint points on 10-15 field goal shooting while holding the Celtics to two paint points on 1-9 field goal shooting.

Early in the second quarter, the Heat extended their lead to 46-20 before the Celtics rallied to slash the margin to 62-47 by halftime. The third quarter was a 25-25 draw, but the wheels fell off for the Heat for most of the fourth quarter; the Celtics outscored the Heat 20-6 in the first 9:20 to pull within 93-92, but Max Strus drilled a three pointer right before the shot clock expired, and the Heat did not look back the rest of the way.

This series has been very disjointed in terms of levels of play and in terms of players missing action due to health/injury issues. For the Celtics, Al Horford and Marcus Smart were out, but now they are back. Robert Williams III has been in and out of the lineup. For the Heat, Kyle Lowry missed the first two games of this series (and the last four playoff games overall) before having a solid performance (11 points, six assists) in game three. Jimmy Butler has been battling recurring knee soreness throughout the playoffs, and the ailment limited him to eight points on 3-8 field goal shooting in game three. Tyler Herro spent the closing moments of game three on the sidelines with a big wrap on his thigh. 

Side note: I hope that all of the injured players become fully healthy as quickly as possible, but the spectacle of players being carried off of the court or helped off of the court as if they are mortally wounded only to run back onto the court minutes later is more than a bit odd. I prefer the Chris Spielman mantra that if he ever had to be helped off of the playing field then he would retire, and I could do without the excess drama. This kind of drama is one reason that people sometimes question how today's players would fare in previous eras during which more physical contact was not only allowed but encouraged. As I once noted, if Anthony Davis lived by Spielman's code then "he either would have retired many years ago, or he would have reacted differently to the various non-career threatening injuries that he has experienced."

It is difficult to anticipate what will happen in game four when it is not clear which players will play, and to what extent injuries will hinder the afflicted players if they do play. At full strength, I would still take Boston over Miami, but it does not seem that this series will be decided with either team at full strength.

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posted by David Friedman @ 1:46 AM

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