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Saturday, November 09, 2024

Thoughts About the L.A. Lakers and the Philadelphia 76ers

I am old enough to remember when the Philadelphia 76ers and L.A. Lakers were model franchises contesting three NBA Finals (1980, 1982-83) in a four year span. The 76ers had the NBA's best regular season record from 1976-83 while reaching the NBA Finals four times (1977, 1980, 1982-83), and winning one championship (1983) with a dominant 12-1 playoff run. Julius Erving was the one constant for the 76ers during that span, with Moses Malone joining the 76ers for the 1982-83 season as the final piece to their championship puzzle. The Lakers featured Pantheon members Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Magic Johnson plus a host of other All-Stars, and they won five championships (1980, 1982, 1985, 1987-88) during the 1980s. 

My, how the mighty have fallen!

The Lakers defeated the 76ers 116-106 on Friday night, but it is highly unlikely that either team will participate in the 2025 NBA Finals. The Lakers are 5-4, and on pace to win fewer games than they did last season. Other than taking the 2020 "bubble title", the LeBron James-led Lakers have been more about sideshows--capturing the 2023 NBA Cup before losing in the first round of the 2024 playoffs, signing Bronny James instead of trying to put the best possible player in every roster spot--than about contending for championships. In LeBron James' six full seasons with the Lakers, they have lost in the first round twice, and missed the playoffs twice, a track record that makes the "bubble title" look like an aberration.

The Lakers fired Coach Darvin Ham after going 47-35 last season, and it remains to be seen if his replacement J.J. Redick is the next Pat Riley. Redick mastered the obvious by making Anthony Davis the hub of the Lakers' offense--Davis scored a game-high 31 points versus the 76ers and he is currently the league's scoring leader--but other than that Redick's biggest early season move has been taking D'Angelo Russell out of the starting lineup prior to the 76ers game. Media members may try to fool the public into believing that this is some kind of strategic master stroke, but Redick could have put Bronny James--or possibly even some dude from the YMCA--in the starting lineup and the Lakers would have still beaten the injury-riddled 76ers, who are without the services of Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. Redick was a member of the media until fairly recently, and his former colleagues seem to be determined to treat him with kid gloves, but that will become increasingly difficult to do if the Lakers are still hovering around the .500 mark 30 or 40 games from now. 

Redick publicly called out every Laker other than LeBron James for lack of effort before benching Russell, which creates some potentially interesting locker room issues. It is obvious that Redick's podcasting partner LeBron James hired Redick, and that Redick will serve as Lakers coach only as long as he curries favor with James--so when Redick calls out players he is speaking on behalf of James, which is problematic from the jump and becomes more problematic if Redick does not call out James when James' effort or execution are not up to par. The best coaches lead by challenging their best players, which then inspires the rest of the team to live up to that standard. The presence of Bronny James on the roster is a constant reminder that the Lakers make roster decisions based on LeBron James' whims, not winning, and calling out role players without challenging LeBron James will get old very quickly, particularly if the Lakers do not soon move up in the standings.

The 1-7 76ers are in even worse shape than the Lakers, and they face an uphill battle just to qualify for the Play-In Tournament. The 76ers still have more suspensions and fines than wins this season, and they have not advanced past the second round of the playoffs since Allen Iverson carried them to the 2001 NBA Finals. Daryl Morey prides himself on utilizing the kind of "advanced basketball statistics" that lead him to believe that James Harden is a greater scorer than Michael Jordan, and if Morey stays true to the "stat guru" way of thinking then his 76ers will tank the rest of the way, because "stat gurus" assert that the worst thing in the NBA is to be stuck in the middle; the 76ers have most definitely not "Tanked to the Top" but if they are not going to get a top playoff seed then the vaunted numbers so prized by "stat gurus" suggest that the 76ers should deliberately sacrifice wins for draft picks--but even the stat-obsessed Morey probably has enough sense to realize that the last thing that 76ers fans will tolerate now is more tanking on the heels of the infamous "Process" that yielded Embiid and a string of seasons ending in the second round of the playoffs (or earlier). Statistics--real ones, not the contrived "advanced ones"--indicate that a 1-7 team is more likely to participate in the Draft Lottery than the playoffs, but deliberately aiming for the Draft Lottery with Joel Embiid, Paul George, and Tyrese Maxey on the roster is unthinkable even for the unofficial king of the "stat gurus."

On Friday night, the 76ers got just nine points on 4-13 field goal shooting from Paul "I call myself Playoff P" George, who will collect more than $200 million from the 76ers during the next four seasons. The 76ers are paying Morey a lot of money to build their roster because they believe that Morey's use of "advanced basketball statistics" gives him a significant edge over his peers. It would be interesting to know which proprietary metrics persuaded Morey that it is shrewd to pay more than $200 million to a shooting guard in his age 34-38 seasons.

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posted by David Friedman @ 9:06 AM

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Thursday, November 07, 2024

Cavaliers Own NBA's Only Perfect Record After Nuggets Silence Thunder

The Cleveland Cavaliers not only own the best record in the NBA, but they are enjoying their best start in franchise history after beating the New Orleans Pelicans 131-122 to improve to 9-0.  Kenny Atkinson is the first coach in NBA history to start out 9-0 in his first season with a new team. Statistics through nine games of an 82 game season are classic "small sample size theater," but it is still noteworthy that the Cavaliers own the third highest scoring average (123.2 ppg) in a 9-0 start in NBA history, trailing only the 1960-61 Philadelphia Warriors (126.8 ppg) and the 1990-91 Portland Trail Blazers (125.0 ppg). The 1961 Warriors featured Wilt Chamberlain, who led the league in scoring that season (38.4 ppg), and they finished second in the four team Eastern Division behind the powerful Boston Celtics. The 1991 Trail Blazers were led by Clyde Drexler (21.5 ppg) and they finished with the league's best record before being upset by Magic Johnson's L.A. Lakers in the Western Conference Finals; the Trail Blazers reached the NBA Finals in 1990 and 1992.

The Cavaliers rank first in the NBA in scoring, first in field goal percentage (.526), ninth in defensive field goal percentage (.456), and 11th in points allowed (110.6 ppg). One possible area of concern is that they rank just 23rd in rebounding (42.1 rpg). Last season, the Cavaliers ranked 20th in scoring (112.6 ppg) 12th in field goal percentage (.479), sixth in defensive field goal percentage (.463), seventh in points allowed (110.2 ppg), and 17th in rebounding (43.3 rpg). So, it would be fair to say that thus far their offense is much more efficient, and their defense is slightly less efficient. It is important to understand that Cleveland has beaten several teams that were bad last season and are unlikely to be good this season, including Detroit, Toronto, and Washington. The Cavaliers also have two wins against the struggling Milwaukee Bucks. A good case could be made that Cleveland's only "quality" win is at Madison Square Garden against the New York Knicks--but even the Knicks, who were 50-32 last season, are just 3-4 so far this season.

In short, the Cavaliers have started the season strongly, but we will know a lot more about how good they really are after they play some tougher competition.

Donovan Mitchell led a balanced Cleveland attack with a game-high tying 29 points, but he had a lot of help. Jarrett Allen had 16 points plus a game-high 14 rebounds, Caris LeVert added 16 points, six rebounds, and six assists, Evan Mobley delivered 15 points, nine rebounds, and three blocked shots, and Darius Garland chipped in with 14 points and a game-high nine assists. 

The Pelicans slipped to 3-6, and face a rough stretch because they are without the services of both of their injured starting guards, C.J. McCollum and Dejounte Murray. Zion Williamson scored a game-high tying 29 points, Jose Alvarado added 27 points, five assists, and three steals, and Brandon Ingram had 20 points, five rebounds, and five assists. 

Oklahoma City owned the only other perfect record (7-0) in the NBA heading into Wednesday's action, but the Thunder fell 124-122 to the Denver Nuggets, who improved to 5-3. Russell Westbrook scored a game-high tying 29 points, grabbed six rebounds, and passed for six assists. Plus/minus numbers are interesting, but sometimes are "noisy" in small sample sizes, and this game is an example of Westbrook's plus/minus number (-14) not reflecting his impact. Westbrook scored or assisted on 15 consecutive points as the Nuggets rallied from a 16 point deficit to beat a team that earned the number one seed in the Western Conference last season with a 57-25 record (beating out 57-25 Denver on tiebreaks) and is expected to be a championship contender this season.

Jalen Williams led the Thunder with 29 points, matching Westbrook's output, and he added 10 rebounds plus nine assists. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had 28 points, six assists, and a game-high eight turnovers. Chet Holmgren scored 15 points and tied Williams for team-high honors with 10 rebounds, but he shot just 5-14 from the field.

Denver Coach Michael Malone praised Westbrook after the game: "And what I love about Russell Westbrook: 17-year vet, leopards don't change their spots, but he is trying so hard to be disciplined. He's trying to do the things we're asking him to do, and I appreciate that so much. Because a lot of times at 17 years in, you are who you are. But he cares, man. He is so invested in this team and what he's bringing to this team, and he's so hard on himself. I can coach a guy like Russell Westbrook any day."  

It has become fashionable in the past few years to pick on Westbrook and bash Westbrook, but commentators like Hubie Brown who understand basketball praise Westbrook. Westbrook has not shot well through the first eight games, but overall he is providing a lift both as a reserve and now as a starter with Jamal Murray sidelined due to a concussion.

Nikola Jokic finished with 23 points, a game-high 20 rebounds, and a game-high 16 assists. Those boxscore numbers look like typographical errors, but they are just one more chapter in what is shaping up to possibly be yet another MVP season: Jokic, who has won the regular season MVP in three of the past four seasons (including last season), currently leads the league in rebounding (13.5 rpg) and assists (11.0 apg) while ranking fourth in scoring (28.8 ppg).

Justin Termine, the self-proclaimed "entertainer" who admits to not being a journalist, has repeatedly trashed the Nuggets for their roster moves. It is important to understand that part of his agenda is to elevate Jokic by asserting that Jokic has no help around him. I agree with Termine that Jokic is the NBA's best player, but I disagree that it is necessary to rip apart Jokic's supporting cast. The Nuggets just beat the powerful Thunder without both Murray and starting forward Aaron Gordon, who is expected to miss multiple weeks with a calf injury. Maybe this game is an aberration, but I think that Jokic, Westbrook, and company can hold down the fort until Murray and Gordon return.

The Nuggets rank fourth in the NBA in scoring (119.0 ppg), third in rebounding (48.3 rpg), and fourth in assists (29.4 apg). They are not good defensively, and must improve in that category in order to be a playoff contender.

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posted by David Friedman @ 10:19 AM

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Tuesday, November 05, 2024

NBA Suspends Joel Embiid For Three Games

In Joel Embiid, Marcus Hayes, and How to Deal with Irresponsible Media Members, I discussed the locker room incident during which Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid threatened and then pushed Philadelphia Inquirer columnist Marcus Hayes, and I stated that unless Commissioner Adam Silver "fancies the idea of NBA players teeing off on every media member who they dislike he must suspend Embiid without pay for multiple games."

Today, the NBA suspended Embiid for three games. NBA Executive Vice President Joe Dumars explained, "Mutual respect is paramount to the relationship between players and media in the NBA. While we understand Joel was offended by the personal nature of the original version of the reporter’s column, interactions must remain professional on both sides and can never turn physical." This is the second time in two weeks that the NBA has taken disciplinary action against the 76ers; last week, the NBA fined the 76ers $100,000 for making public statements about Embiid's health that were inconsistent and that violated league rules.

Embiid missed the first six games of this season due to injury and the Philadelphia 76ers have not indicated when he will be cleared to play, so the suspension will go into effect after Embiid is added to the active roster.

Daryl Morey was not an awful general manager in Houston, but an objective analysis of his record proves that he was not great, either. He took the reins in Philadelphia's front office in 2020, and during his tenure the 76ers lost in the second round for three straight years before falling in the first round last season. This season, the 76ers are 1-5 and Embiid has been suspended for more games than he has played. Throughout his career, Morey and his supporters have asserted that his use of "advanced basketball statistics" provides him a tangible advantage over his competitors; the reality is that the objective numbers--wins, losses, championships--prove that Morey has demonstrated no such advantage.

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posted by David Friedman @ 11:52 PM

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Monday, November 04, 2024

Joel Embiid, Marcus Hayes, and How to Deal with Irresponsible Media Members

Philadelphia Inquirer columnist Marcus Hayes recently criticized Joel Embiid for missing so many games throughout his career--a factual and valid criticism--but Hayes veered from factual and valid to irrelevant and irresponsible when he asserted that Embiid's lack of professionalism dishonors Embiid's young son and the memory of Embiid's deceased brother. 

Embiid played in just 39 of 82 regular season games last season, he has never played in more than 68 games in a season, and he has missed all five of the Philadelphia 76ers' games this season--but he was in the locker room after Philadelphia's 124-117 loss to Memphis on Saturday night, and he told Hayes, "The next time you bring up my dead brother and my son again, you are going to see what I'm going to do to you and I'm going to have to...live with the consequences." Embiid and Hayes exchanged words, Embiid did not accept Hayes' apology, and then Embiid pushed Hayes on the shoulder/neck area. A 76ers' security official urged media members in the locker room to not report what Embiid had done, but Embiid declared, "They can do whatever they want. I don't give a ----."

The NBA is investigating Embiid's conduct, and the NBA will presumably consider not only that Embiid made physical contact with a media member but also that Embiid repeatedly stated that he does not care about the consequences of his actions. Embiid dared the NBA to punish him. When David Stern was the NBA's Commissioner, he would have accepted that dare, and levied discipline commensurate with the severity of Embiid's actions combined with Embiid's lack of remorse. It will be interesting to see how current NBA Commissioner Adam Silver handles this situation. One could joke that the appropriate discipline would be to force Embiid to play in games right now and to play in back to back games, but this situation is no laughing matter, and unless Silver fancies the idea of NBA players teeing off on every media member who they dislike he must suspend Embiid without pay for multiple games. It may be fun to joke about Kevin Durant punching Stephen A. Smith or LeBron James punching Skip Bayless, but if those things actually happened then the NBA would rapidly descend into a sideshow instead of being a professional sports league.

The fact that Embiid's actions are way out of bounds in no way justifies what Hayes wrote. Bringing up Embiid's deceased brother and Embiid's young son was not only cruel and heartless but it was also irrelevant: the issue that Hayes supposedly cared about is Embiid's professionalism, and that issue can and should be discussed without ever bringing up Embiid's family. Embiid has rarely if ever been in tip top physical condition during his NBA career, and it can reasonably be argued that this lack of professionalism--and not "luck," which is how Embiid explained his large number of missed games--explains why Embiid has been so injury-prone. If Hayes had stuck to discussing Embiid's history of missing games, not being in shape, and playing poorly in the playoffs then Hayes could have produced a timely, relevant column--but, instead, Hayes went for the cheap shot, the clicks, and the attention. 

In short, Hayes showed that he is unprofessional, and lacks the judgment that should be a requirement for a columnist.

Unfortunately, Hayes is far from an exception. I have documented many examples of writers and TV commentators who often demonstrate their lack of professionalism.

Justin Termine, one of Sirius XM NBA Radio's main hosts, has a website that declares that he is "an entertainer, not a journalist," and he consistently lives up to the low standard that he sets for himself, including but not limited to the false narratives that he applies to the careers of Rick Barry (who he adores) and Julius Erving (who he denigrates as being overrated compared to Barry); to be clear, Barry and Erving are both all-time greats, but Termine's descriptions of their respective careers are not accurate or objective.

Amin Elhassan and Zack Harper think that it is amusing to mock Bob Cousy and Russell Westbrook. It is fair to say that Cousy and Westbrook will be remembered as significant figures in basketball history long after Elhassan and Harper will be forgotten. A little humility, a bit of knowledge about basketball history, and a modicum of respect for sustained greatness are three traits that Elhassan and Harper lack.

Before parlaying his friendship with LeBron James into an opportunity to become coach of the Lakers despite having no coaching experience at the college or pro levels, J.J. Redick worked as a media member who repeatedly demonstrated his ignorance about basketball history, culminating in his disrespectful comments about Bob Cousy.

Stephen A. Smith and Kendrick Perkins regularly spout hot takes that are cold as ice and disconnected from reality. The problem is not just that many of their evaluations and predictions are wrong--no one is always right about evaluations and predictions--but rather that their evaluations and predictions have no logical basis. What qualifies them to be paid so much to pontificate about the NBA? The answer is that they are not hired to be journalists but--like Termine--to be entertainers, and their bosses apparently think that they are entertaining.

It is problematic that so many of the most prominent media members who receive credentials to cover the NBA do not even pretend to be qualified journalists. When Stern was the NBA's Commissioner, he would call out media members who did not have their facts straight and who acted in an unprofessional manner; this was not about censoring opinions, but rather about insisting that media members should be held to a professional standard. 

Hayes is just the latest example of a media member who has been blessed with an NBA credential despite lacking the judgment and professionalism that should be a prerequisite for receiving such a privilege. 

One might argue that the public is receiving the media coverage that it wants and deserves, but I would argue that media outlets have a professional obligation to hold themselves to a high standard regardless of what the public wants or expects. Contrary to what Termine explicitly states and what many of his colleagues implicitly accept as reality, it is possible to be entertaining while also being informative and professional. 

Jalen Rose was one of the few prominent commentators who would challenge Stephen A. Smith, Kendrick Perkins, Skip Bayless, and others when they made foolish and unprofessional comments--and we see where Rose's candor landed him: out of work.

It's your move, Commissioner Silver. Will you discipline Embiid sufficiently such that no NBA player will ever again make aggressive physical contact with a media member? Will you take a more active role in oversight of who receives NBA media credentials, and the ways that credentialed media members often sully the league's image and its proud history? Or will you attempt to sweep this Embiid/Hayes situation under the rug?

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posted by David Friedman @ 2:39 AM

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