Suns Spoil Clippers' Home Opener in New Arena
The Phoenix Suns built a 14 point first half lead, fell behind by 10 points with just 6:13 remaining in the fourth quarter, and then rallied to beat the L.A. Clippers 116-113 in overtime, spoiling the Clippers' home opener in Steve Ballmer's new arena. Kevin Durant led Phoenix with 25 points while also posting a team-high seven turnovers. Bradley Beal scored 24 points on 8-12 field goal shooting, and poured in seven of the Suns' 13 overtime points. Devin Booker had a quiet game (15 points, six assists) by his lofty standards. Tyus Jones did an excellent job in his debut as the team's starting point guard, finishing with 11 points, a game-high tying eight assists, and no turnovers. The Suns squandered many late leads last season due to poor execution down the stretch, so slotting Jones in as the starting point guard is meant to solve that problem, and if this game is any indication then that plan will work out well.
This game was a microcosm of James Harden's career: he filled up the boxscore with empty calories, and he disappeared when it mattered the most. Harden's game-high 29 points, game-high 12 rebounds, and game-high tying eight assists will make every "stat guru" drool, but it is worth noting not only that Harden had a -4 plus/minus number but also when and how he accumulated his numbers, because the great Bill Russell used to emphasize during his time as a CBS commentator the importance of when a player puts up his numbers. Harden was a no-show in the first half with four points on 2-11 field goal shooting as the Suns built a 47-39 halftime lead, forcing the Clippers to expend energy playing from behind. Then, he erupted for 16 points on 5-9 field goal shooting in the third quarter as the Clippers outscored the Suns 35-25 to take a 74-72 lead heading into the fourth quarter. In the fourth quarter with the game up for grabs, Harden had eight points on 3-7 field goal shooting with a team-worst -7 plus/minus number.
The Clippers led 99-90 with 3:52 remaining in the fourth quarter, and then Harden did his thing: he missed a 30 foot three pointer, he missed a floater, he turned the ball over, he missed a layup, and he fouled Durant on a three point play that gave the Suns the lead for the first time in the fourth quarter. Harden then tied the game with a stepback jumper and gave the Clippers a brief lead by hitting a pair of free throws before Durant's fadeaway knotted the score at 103 with 21.2 seconds remaining. Harden missed a floater that could have won the game, and in overtime he did not score a point or deliver an assist. Harden once said that he is not a system player but he is "The system" and that is true if he means that he is "The system" for falling behind early, squandering late leads, disappearing in overtime, and putting up "concert tour" field goal percentages in playoff games.
Unfortunately for the Clippers, their hopes will ride or die with Harden, because two-time NBA Finals MVP (2014, 2019) Kawhi Leonard is out indefinitely with a knee injury. It is becoming increasingly evident that the issue with Leonard is not so much that he is intentionally engaging in load management but that rather he just cannot stay healthy.
In contrast, the Suns have a much sounder foundation, as they are relying on two-time NBA champion/NBA Finals MVP Durant, supported by Booker and Beal, who are excellent as the second and third options respectively. The Suns replaced Frank Vogel, who is an excellent coach, with Mike Budenholzer, who led the Milwaukee Bucks to the 2021 NBA title.
Labels: Bradley Beal, Devin Booker, James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, Kevin Durant, L.A. Clippers, Phoenix Suns, Tyus Jones
posted by David Friedman @ 11:14 AM
Sharpshooting Bucks Take Down Defenseless Suns, 140-129
The Milwaukee Bucks beat the Phoenix Suns 140-129 on Sunday even though the Suns were at full strength while the Bucks were missing two-time regular season MVP (2019, 2020) Giannis Antetokounmpo, who was a late precautionary scratch due to lingering hamstring soreness. Damian Lillard scored a game-high 31 points on 10-19 field goal shooting while passing for a game-high/career-high tying 16 assists. Bobby Portis matched Lillard with 31 points, shooting 13-20 from the field and also snaring a game-high 10 rebounds. Portis made all five of his three point shots. Khris Middleton returned to the lineup after missing 16 games with an ankle injury, and he had a major impact, scoring 22 points and dishing for seven assists in just 25 minutes. The Bucks set season highs for three point field goals made (24) and points scored in a half (82) while also tying the NBA record for three point field goals made in a half (18). Their 140 points is the most that they have scored since Doc Rivers took the head coaching reins shortly before the All-Star Game.
Bradley Beal led the Suns with 28 points while passing for seven assists, Grayson Allen added 25 points and a team-high eight assists, and Devin Booker had 23 points, a team-high nine rebounds, and six assists. Kevin Durant entered the game needing 20 points to surpass Shaquille O'Neal on the all-time scoring list, but he finished with just 11 points on 4-10 field goal shooting, though he did have a strong floor game (nine rebounds, four assists, three steals, two blocked shots, and just one turnover in a game-high 41 minutes).
This rematch of the 2021 NBA Finals did not feel like a rematch not only because of Antetokounmpo's absence but also because Booker is the only player or coach remaining from Phoenix' 2021 squad. It is amazing how quickly things change in the NBA, even for franchises that have been successful.
Hubie Brown
provided the color commentary for ABC. His most recent telecast was last Sunday when the Philadelphia 76ers beat the New York Knicks 79-73 in the NBA's lowest scoring game since 2016. Brown's pregame remarks focused on Middleton and Durant. Brown noted that even though Middleton is only averaging around 14 ppg this season he is a proven 20 ppg scorer who can also play the point guard role during crunch time minutes. Brown commented that Durant is so good that he makes scoring look easy, and he pointed out how Durant uses his length to create space to launch uncontested shots.
Lillard is having a good season by conventional standards, but his numbers are below his career averages in several key categories, including PPG, FG%, and 3FG%. He played poorly in his previous two games, scoring just 27 points on 9-28 (.321) field goal shooting, but he understood the assignment with Antetokounmpo out of action: score efficiently while creating easy scoring opportunities for his teammates. Lillard scored nine first quarter points, but even more importantly he had six assists and no turnovers. Portis led the Bucks with 12 first quarter points on 5-5 field goal shooting.
The Suns jumped out to a 9-3 lead, but by the end of the first quarter the Bucks led 39-36 and they never trailed again. The Bucks shot 15-24 from the field (.625) in the first quarter and the Suns were not far behind that blazing pace, shooting 14-25 (.560). Brown called the Bucks a "slow defensive recovery team," and added, "You can see early in this game that the defensive end off of the dribble is going to be a problem for Milwaukee."
Brown amplified his pregame comments about Middleton's importance to the Bucks, calling him "A joy to watch," and praising him as a third scoring option who is comfortable being the second or even first option in clutch situations, which takes pressure off of Antetokounmpo and Lillard.
Brown, who made his mark as a defensive-minded coach, described the defense in this game as so bad "it's almost outrageous," specifically noting that on many plays a defender was not within four or five feet of the shooter. Brown pointed out that the Bucks' strategy was to trap Booker and Durant out front while playing zone behind the traps.
After Portis made a three pointer from the left wing in the second quarter, he shouted, "That’s for you, Hubie!" Portis gave a similar shoutout to Brown during Milwaukee's 119-98 win over Philadelphia on Sunday February 25. Brown loves Portis' game, and it is nice to see a player who is far too young to remember most of Brown's coaching and broadcasting careers demonstrating such respect for one of the legends of the game.
The Bucks led 82-60 at halftime, mainly because of their record-setting three point shooting, led by Portis' 25 points on 10-13 field goal shooting (including 5-5 from three point range). Brown mentioned that the Bucks shot 2-2 from the free throw line during the first half, and said that this is because the Bucks were "shooting at will in wide open areas." The Suns' defense was so bad that they were not even close enough to the Bucks to foul them, let alone hinder or stop them.
Brown said that the Suns should approach the second half with the mindset of cutting 4-5 points off of the lead every six minutes. The Suns stuck to that blueprint quite well, helped by the nature of the NBA today: the three point shot is a high variance play,
and overuse of the three point shot is a major reason that NBA games so
often feature big leads followed by big comebacks. In this game, the
Bucks led by as many as 25 points in the second half before the Suns
used a 32-13 rally to trim the margin to 100-94 with 1:30 remaining in
the third quarter; in less than eight minutes, the Suns transformed a
blowout into a potential win. The Bucks quickly built their lead back up
to 15 points, but had to withstand one more Phoenix surge that trimmed
the deficit to 122-115 with 6:17 left in the fourth quarter. The Suns made their run by utilizing a smaller, more aggressive lineup featuring Durant as the only player taller than 6-7.
Although the Suns outscored the Bucks 35-31 in the fourth quarter, overall this season the Suns have been awful in the final stanza, posting the fifth worst fourth quarter scoring margin in NBA history and blowing 10 fourth quarter leads. Brown attributes the Suns' fourth quarter struggles this season to high turnovers and low field goal percentage.
After the Bucks sealed the win in the closing moments, Brown's broadcast partner Dave Pasch noted that Lillard is the first player in Bucks' history to have at least 30 points and at least 15 assists in the same game. Brown replied that he was fortunate to coach great Milwaukee players including Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Oscar Robertson, and Bob Dandridge. Brown said that it is important to remind younger viewers that Robertson averaged 30-10-10 in his first five NBA seasons. "That is the impression he made," Brown emphasized. Brown is correct, and in fact Robertson averaged 30.4 ppg, 10.7 apg, 10.0 rpg in his first six NBA seasons. Brown respects the players in today's NBA and he praises Lillard's game when warranted, but Brown did a great job of making it clear that one 30-15 game is not equivalent to averaging 30-10-10 for several seasons in a row.
This game reflected the strengths and weaknesses that both teams have displayed throughout the season: the Bucks are potentially an offensive powerhouse, but they need Antetokounmpo on the court to provide paint presence at both ends of the court; the Suns' Durant-Booker-Beal trio can be lethal on offense, but collectively the Suns provide little defensive resistance.
Labels: Bobby Portis, Bradley Beal, Damian Lillard, Devin Booker, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Hubie Brown, Kevin Durant, Khris Middleton, Milwaukee Bucks, Phoenix Suns
posted by David Friedman @ 2:46 AM
Evaluating Recent Major NBA Trades
Three teams that recently reached the NBA Finals made major trades as each team attempts to obtain the final piece to the championship puzzle. The Phoenix Suns, who lost 4-2 to the Milwaukee Bucks in the 2021 NBA Finals, acquired Bradley Beal from the Washington Wizards in exchange for Chris Paul, Landry Shamet, and multiple draft picks/draft pick swaps. The Wizards then traded Paul to the Golden State Warriors in exchange for Jordan Poole; the Warriors defeated the Boston Celtics 4-2 in the 2022 NBA Finals, and are tweaking their roster after losing to the L.A. Lakers in the second round of the 2023 playoffs. The Celtics acquired Kristaps Porzingis and two draft picks in a three way trade in which they sent Marcus Smart to the Memphis Grizzlies while the Wizards received Tyus Jones from the Grizzlies and Danilo Gallinari, Mike Muscala, and one draft pick from the Celtics.
Draft picks can be a very important component of an NBA trade, but it is impossible to know now the impact that those draft picks will have, so this article will focus on the active players involved in each of the above transactions. It should also be emphasized that draft picks are only as good as the executives deciding who to choose, and the coaches determining how to best develop the talents of each player on a team's roster.
The Suns are going all-in with a top heavy roster featuring Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Bradley Beal, and Deandre Ayton. The Suns do not have much depth or size. Durant will be 35 when the 2023-24 season begins, Booker will be 27, Beal will be 30, and Ayton will be 25. Durant is past his prime; he can still be effective, but he has already had one serious injury (Achilles, 2019) and he has not played more than 55 games in a season since suffering that injury. Booker is just entering his prime, but he has not played more than 70 games in a season since 2016-17. Beal averaged 23.2 ppg in each of the last two seasons after posting back to back 30 ppg seasons, and he has played 60 games or less in each of the last four seasons. Ayton is a talented player who should be just entering his prime, but his game has not developed much since his rookie season: he averaged 16.3 ppg and 10.3 rpg in 2018-19 as a rookie, and he averaged 18.0 ppg and 10.0 rpg last season. He has played more than 70 games just once in five NBA seasons.
In short, the Suns are relying heavily on players who have not stayed healthy in recent seasons. Two of those players (Durant and Beal) are past their primes, one of them is in his prime but may be as good as he is going to get (Booker), and the fourth player is a bit of an enigma whose apparent disenchantment with the Phoenix organization is matched by the Phoenix organization's apparent disenchantment with him. When healthy, the Suns should be able to score prolifically and efficiently, but they will have trouble defensively and they will almost certainly be worn down by the time the playoffs begin. Chris Paul is older, more injury-prone, and less effective at this stage of his career than Beal, so the trade is a short term upgrade for the Suns but not nearly enough to put the Suns over the top.
The Warriors have clearly abandoned their two timeline strategy of keeping their veteran championship core (Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green) while also developing young players. The veteran championship core is still intact, but Poole--who received a huge contract from the Warriors a year ago with the expectation that he would be the centerpiece of the youth movement--is out of the picture in exchange for Paul, whose body is breaking down (he has not played more than 70 games in a season since 2015-16 and he regularly is injured during the playoffs) and who has presided over more blown 2-0 playoff series leads than any player in NBA history. The pattern throughout Paul's career is that he is the floor general for talented teams that fall apart during the playoffs amid internal dissension; it is puzzling that a player with his resume is often touted as the best leader in the league, because the evidence proves that is simply not the case--unless one believes that playoff failures accompanied by internal dissension are indicators that a team has great leadership.
The Warriors' youth movement failed to impress and failed to deliver during the 2023 playoffs, so it is understandable why the organization chose to go all-in with the veteran championship core plus a veteran like Paul, but it is difficult to picture the Warriors winning another title relying so much on Thompson (who has never returned to his pre-injury form), Green (whose antics are increasingly overshadowing the value he provides), and Paul (whose resume of playoff failure speaks for itself).
The Celtics were forced to pivot in a different direction after the scandal involving Ime Udoka resulted in Joe Mazzulla taking over as coach just before the start of last season. Mazzulla did well as a young rookie coach, but he emphasized offense more than Udoka did, and he had a different rotation of players that he trusted. Smart, the 2022 NBA Defensive Player of the year, started 360 of the 581 regular season games that he played in for the Celtics during his nine years with the team, and he started 73 of 108 playoff games during that tenure. The Celtics reached the Eastern Conference Finals five times (2017-18, 2020, 2022-23) and they played in the NBA Finals once (2022), so Smart was a key contributor to a team that sustained high level playoff success for an extended period. However, his departure will not only open up more minutes for Malcolm Brogdon and Derrick White, but Porzingis will add size, three level scoring, rebounding, and rim protection. There is no doubt that Smart was a productive player for some very successful Boston teams, but Porzingis is younger, bigger, more physically gifted, and more versatile than Smart. Therefore, on paper this trade is a win for the Celtics.
As for the Grizzlies and Wizards, it is not clear why the Grizzlies exchanged Jones for Smart. Jones is younger, and is widely considered to be the best backup point guard in the league. Even though starting point guard Ja Morant will miss at least the first 25 games of next season after being suspended by the NBA, it seems odd to bring in Smart to start a couple dozen games and then take over Jones' backup role. Perhaps the Grizzlies place a high value on Smart's leadership, but it is unlikely that Smart alone can set Morant on a better path or cure the team's overall immaturity.
The Wizards have been irrelevant--at least in terms of being a legitimate championship contender--since the late 1970s when the franchise was known as the Bullets. Getting rid of Beal and Porzingis in exchange for the erratic Poole and a bunch of draft picks signals that the "Wheeze-hards" will once again be gasping for air and grasping at straws. Tanking does not work in general, and in this specific instance there is no reason to trust that the Wizards will use those draft choices wisely or that they will fully develop any talented players that they are fortunate enough to draft.
Injuries, additional trades, and unexpected greatness from future draft picks may change the long term evaluation of the above deals, but for now it is reasonable to suggest that the Celtics improved their team, the Suns went all-in with a top heavy/offense reliant strategy that is not likely to yield a title, and the Warriors are crossing their fingers that Paul and Thompson stay healthy, that Curry does not decline soon, and that Green does not punch out any other teammates (or stomp on opponents). Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are praying that Morant does not mess up again and that Smart will provide veteran leadership, while the Wizards continue to be the Wizards.
Labels: Boston Celtics, Bradley Beal, Chris Paul, Kristaps Porzingis, Marcus Smart, Memphis Grizzlies, Phoenix Suns, Washington Wizards
posted by David Friedman @ 3:02 PM
Wizards Make Pacers Disappear, Clinch Playoff Berth Despite Starting the Season With a 7-17 Record
The Washington Wizards blew out the Indiana Pacers 142-115 in the Play-In Tournament to clinch the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs. Three of the five Play-In Tournament games have been decided by at least 18 points, so the overall competition level has been less than fantastic. Bradley Beal scored a game-high 25 points in just 28 minutes, but Russell Westbrook set the tone with his all-around play, amassing a game-high +30 plus/minus number as he scored 18 points, dished a game-high 15 assists, and grabbed eight rebounds. He nearly had a triple double in the first half alone, and if the game had been close enough to require him to play more than 33 minutes he likely would have posted a triple double. Malcolm Brogdon led the Pacers with 24 points, and Domantas Sabonis notched a triple double (19 points, 11 rebounds, 10 assists) before fouling out after playing 32 minutes.
The last time the Wizards/Bullets franchise won a winner take all game was 1979, and the last time that they qualified for the playoffs was 2018. To say that this franchise does not have a modern winning tradition is an understatement. A lot of well-known names have played for the Wizards in the past four decades--including Michael Jordan at the end of his career--without producing much postseason success, but Westbrook has played a major role in turning this team around after injuries and COVID-19 left the Wizards languishing with a 7-17 record.
Westbrook led the league in assists for the third time in the past four seasons with a career-high 11.7 rpg average, and he ranked a career-high sixth in the league in rebounding with a career-high 11.5 rpg average. The last guard to rank in the top 10 in rebounding (other than Westbrook himself, who has now accomplished the feat four times) is Oscar Robertson in 1961-62, when he ranked ninth as a second year player. Westbrook also averaged 22.2 ppg (24th in the league). The only other players who ranked in the top 25 in scoring, rebounding, and assists this season are Nikola Jokic (the presumptive MVP), Giannis Antetokounmpo (the two-time reigning MVP), Julius Randle, and Luka Doncic. Four of those five players have been mentioned as MVP candidates. Westbrook is the odd man out, treated with a puzzling amount of disrespect for a player who consistently plays hard while filling up the boxscore in multiple categories.
As great as Westbrook was during the 2020-21 season, he took his game to another level every time he played against the Pacers. Westbrook averaged a triple double versus the Pacers during the regular season
as the Wizards swept the season series 3-0--and not a normal triple
double, but what can only be called a "Westbrook triple double": 27.3
ppg, 20.0 apg, 18.0 rpg. Only Oscar Robertson and Wilt Chamberlain ever
repeatedly posted outsize triple doubles like that, but Westbrook is the all-time triple double champion and he does not have many "small" triple doubles.
Westbrook offered a harsh assessment of his performance in the Wizards first Play-In Tournament game (a 118-100 loss to the Boston Celtics), but if redemption is necessary for producing 20 points, 14 rebounds, five assists, three steals, and two blocked shots--which is actually a below average game by the ridiculously high standards that Westbrook has set for himself--then he more than achieved it versus the Pacers.
Labels: Bradley Beal, Domantas Sabonis, Indiana Pacers, Malcolm Brogdon, Russell Westbrook, Washington Wizards
posted by David Friedman @ 11:16 PM
Westbrook Ties Robertson's Career Triple Double Record, Hits Game-Winning Free Throws, and Makes Game-Saving Blocked Shot
Russell Westbrook scored 33 points, grabbed 19 rebounds, dished for 15 assists, hit the game-winning free throws, and had a game-saving blocked shot as time expired in Washington's 133-132 overtime win versus the Indiana Pacers. The victory lifted the Wizards past the Pacers into ninth place in the Eastern Conference. The Wizards have won 15 of their last 19 games, largely because of Westbrook's record-setting triple double exploits. He has had 21 triple doubles in his last 25 games, including 14 in April, setting the single-month record. The triple double versus the Pacers lifted Westbrook into a tie with Oscar Robertson for most career triple doubles (181); the last time a major NBA career record was broken was when Ray Allen passed Reggie Miller for all-time three pointers made in 2011. Westbrook already holds the single season triple double record (42 in 2016-17), and he has 35 triple doubles this season with four games remaining.
Bradley Beal scored 50 points before sitting out the overtime due to an ankle injury and a hamstring injury. Beal, who ranks second in scoring this season behind Stephen Curry, is posting career highs in scoring and field goal percentage in his first season playing alongside Westbrook, who has made a habit of bringing out the best in his teammates--including Kevin Durant, Paul George, and James Harden.
If it were easy to get triple doubles, then everyone would do it, but the reality is that Westbrook is establishing a triple double standard that may never be matched. Before Westbrook emerged as the best all-around guard in the NBA, Robertson enjoyed a 43 triple double lead over Magic Johnson--a total that would rank 10th on the all-time list! It would not be accurate to attribute Westbrook's numbers to rules changes or style of play changes, because the next active player on the list (LeBron James) has 99 career triple doubles.
Westbrook is not a perfect player--who is?--but he plays hard every game, and he does everything he can to put his team in position to win. He has an impact on every aspect of the game: scoring, passing, rebounding, and defense.
Westbrook's first opportunity to surpass Robertson's triple double record will be on Monday night when the Wizards visit the Atlanta Hawks. Westbrook has already clinched averaging a triple double for the season, the fourth time in the past five years that he has accomplished that feat. Robertson is the only other player to average a triple double for a season. Robertson also averaged an aggregate triple double for the first five seasons of his career; Westbrook is on pace to finish this season averaging an aggregate triple double for the past five seasons.
Labels: Bradley Beal, Indiana Pacers, Oscar Robertson, Russell Westbrook, Washington Wizards
posted by David Friedman @ 12:01 AM
Boston Versus Washington Preview
Eastern Conference Second Round
#1 Boston (53-29) vs. #4 Washington (49-33)
Season series: Tied, 2-2
Washington can win if…John Wall dominates the series at both ends of the court. He is a modern-day Micheal Ray Richardson but without Richardson's off-court baggage. Richardson was an elite player when his mind and body were right and he spearheaded the Nets' shocking 1984 upset of the defending champion 76ers. Like Richardson, Wall scores despite not being a great shooter, he passes very well and he can be very disruptive defensively.
The Wizards will also need a high level performance from Wall's backcourt mate Bradley Beal, a smooth and deadly perimeter shooter.
This team started the season slowly but rallied down the stretch and is viewed in some quarters as the biggest threat to LeBron James' streak of six straight Eastern Conference championships. First, though, the Wizards must deal with the number one seed Boston Celtics.
Boston will win because…the Celtics may be one of the weakest number one seeds in recent memory but they are still the number one seed and they showed a lot of resilience while rallying from a 2-0 first round deficit versus the number eight seed Chicago Bulls.
The Celtics rely heavily on the wizardry of 5-9 point guard Isaiah Thomas, who is mourning the recent death of his younger sister in a car accident, but they also have four-time All-Star center Al Horford, defensive ace Avery Bradley and gritty forward Jae Crowder.
Coach Brad Stevens is considered a rising star and it will be interesting to see which buttons he pushes as this series progresses.
Other things to consider: The Eastern Conference pecking order is interesting. The Cavaliers are the established champions and the Raptors are the veteran challengers while the Celtics and Wizards are the up and coming young teams. At some point the Cavaliers will either fall off or be knocked off and it will be intriguing to see which of these three teams accomplishes that feat (not necessarily this year)--or if the task is ultimately accomplished by a different team, such as Milwaukee.
Labels: Boston Celtics, Bradley Beal, Isaiah Thomas, John Wall, Washington Wizards
posted by David Friedman @ 9:26 AM
