20 Second Timeout

Evaluating Recent Major NBA Trades

Three teams that recently reached the NBA Finals made major trades as each team attempts to obtain the final piece to the championship puzzle. The Phoenix Suns, who lost 4-2 to the Milwaukee Bucks in the 2021 NBA Finals, acquired Bradley Beal from the Washington Wizards in exchange for Chris Paul, Landry Shamet, and multiple draft picks/draft pick swaps. The Wizards then traded Paul to the Golden State Warriors in exchange for Jordan Poole; the Warriors defeated the Boston Celtics 4-2 in the 2022 NBA Finals, and are tweaking their roster after losing to the L.A. Lakers in the second round of the 2023 playoffs. The Celtics acquired Kristaps Porzingis and two draft picks in a three way trade in which they sent Marcus Smart to the Memphis Grizzlies while the Wizards received Tyus Jones from the Grizzlies and Danilo Gallinari, Mike Muscala, and one draft pick from the Celtics.

Draft picks can be a very important component of an NBA trade, but it is impossible to know now the impact that those draft picks will have, so this article will focus on the active players involved in each of the above transactions. It should also be emphasized that draft picks are only as good as the executives deciding who to choose, and the coaches determining how to best develop the talents of each player on a team's roster.

The Suns are going all-in with a top heavy roster featuring Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Bradley Beal, and Deandre Ayton. The Suns do not have much depth or size. Durant will be 35 when the 2023-24 season begins, Booker will be 27, Beal will be 30, and Ayton will be 25. Durant is past his prime; he can still be effective, but he has already had one serious injury (Achilles, 2019) and he has not played more than 55 games in a season since suffering that injury. Booker is just entering his prime, but he has not played more than 70 games in a season since 2016-17. Beal averaged 23.2 ppg in each of the last two seasons after posting back to back 30 ppg seasons, and he has played 60 games or less in each of the last four seasons. Ayton is a talented player who should be just entering his prime, but his game has not developed much since his rookie season: he averaged 16.3 ppg and 10.3 rpg in 2018-19 as a rookie, and he averaged 18.0 ppg and 10.0 rpg last season. He has played more than 70 games just once in five NBA seasons.

In short, the Suns are relying heavily on players who have not stayed healthy in recent seasons. Two of those players (Durant and Beal) are past their primes, one of them is in his prime but may be as good as he is going to get (Booker), and the fourth player is a bit of an enigma whose apparent disenchantment with the Phoenix organization is matched by the Phoenix organization's apparent disenchantment with him. When healthy, the Suns should be able to score prolifically and efficiently, but they will have trouble defensively and they will almost certainly be worn down by the time the playoffs begin. Chris Paul is older, more injury-prone, and less effective at this stage of his career than Beal, so the trade is a short term upgrade for the Suns but not nearly enough to put the Suns over the top.

The Warriors have clearly abandoned their two timeline strategy of keeping their veteran championship core (Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green) while also developing young players. The veteran championship core is still intact, but Poole--who received a huge contract from the Warriors a year ago with the expectation that he would be the centerpiece of the youth movement--is out of the picture in exchange for Paul, whose body is breaking down (he has not played more than 70 games in a season since 2015-16 and he regularly is injured during the playoffs) and who has presided over more blown 2-0 playoff series leads than any player in NBA history. The pattern throughout Paul's career is that he is the floor general for talented teams that fall apart during the playoffs amid internal dissension; it is puzzling that a player with his resume is often touted as the best leader in the league, because the evidence proves that is simply not the case--unless one believes that playoff failures accompanied by internal dissension are indicators that a team has great leadership.

The Warriors' youth movement failed to impress and failed to deliver during the 2023 playoffs, so it is understandable why the organization chose to go all-in with the veteran championship core plus a veteran like Paul, but it is difficult to picture the Warriors winning another title relying so much on Thompson (who has never returned to his pre-injury form), Green (whose antics are increasingly overshadowing the value he provides), and Paul (whose resume of playoff failure speaks for itself).

The Celtics were forced to pivot in a different direction after the scandal involving Ime Udoka resulted in Joe Mazzulla taking over as coach just before the start of last season. Mazzulla did well as a young rookie coach, but he emphasized offense more than Udoka did, and he had a different rotation of players that he trusted. Smart, the 2022 NBA Defensive Player of the year, started 360 of the 581 regular season games that he played in for the Celtics during his nine years with the team, and he started 73 of 108 playoff games during that tenure. The Celtics reached the Eastern Conference Finals five times (2017-18, 2020, 2022-23) and they played in the NBA Finals once (2022), so Smart was a key contributor to a team that sustained high level playoff success for an extended period. However, his departure will not only open up more minutes for Malcolm Brogdon and Derrick White, but Porzingis will add size, three level scoring, rebounding, and rim protection. There is no doubt that Smart was a productive player for some very successful Boston teams, but Porzingis is younger, bigger, more physically gifted, and more versatile than Smart. Therefore, on paper this trade is a win for the Celtics. 

As for the Grizzlies and Wizards, it is not clear why the Grizzlies exchanged Jones for Smart. Jones is younger, and is widely considered to be the best backup point guard in the league. Even though starting point guard Ja Morant will miss at least the first 25 games of next season after being suspended by the NBA, it seems odd to bring in Smart to start a couple dozen games and then take over Jones' backup role. Perhaps the Grizzlies place a high value on Smart's leadership, but it is unlikely that Smart alone can set Morant on a better path or cure the team's overall immaturity. 

The Wizards have been irrelevant--at least in terms of being a legitimate championship contender--since the late 1970s when the franchise was known as the Bullets. Getting rid of Beal and Porzingis in exchange for the erratic Poole and a bunch of draft picks signals that the "Wheeze-hards" will once again be gasping for air and grasping at straws. Tanking does not work in general, and in this specific instance there is no reason to trust that the Wizards will use those draft choices wisely or that they will fully develop any talented players that they are fortunate enough to draft. 

Injuries, additional trades, and unexpected greatness from future draft picks may change the long term evaluation of the above deals, but for now it is reasonable to suggest that the Celtics improved their team, the Suns went all-in with a top heavy/offense reliant strategy that is not likely to yield a title, and the Warriors are crossing their fingers that Paul and Thompson stay healthy, that Curry does not decline soon, and that Green does not punch out any other teammates (or stomp on opponents). Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are praying that Morant does not mess up again and that Smart will provide veteran leadership, while the Wizards continue to be the Wizards.

Labels: Boston Celtics, Bradley Beal, Chris Paul, Kristaps Porzingis, Marcus Smart, Memphis Grizzlies, Phoenix Suns, Washington Wizards

posted by David Friedman @ 3:02 PM

10 comments

Harden's Three Pointer Lifts 76ers to Overtime Win Versus Celtics in Game Four

James Harden scored a game-high 42 points and he drained the game-winning three pointer from the right corner with 19 seconds remaining in overtime to lead the Philadelphia 76ers to a 116-115 game four win over the Boston Celtics. The series is tied 2-2 and shifts back to Boston for a pivotal game five. Harden shot 16-23 from the field, and he had a game-high nine assists plus eight rebounds, a game-high four steals, and one blocked shot. In the long, distinguished history of the 76ers franchise, there is a short list of players who had at least 40 points, at least five rebounds, and at least five assists in the same playoff game: Wilt Chamberlain, Julius Erving, Allen Iverson, and James Harden.

Harden was awful in the previous two games, shooting a combined 5-28 from the field. He is obviously a talented, All-Star caliber player, but elite level greatness is defined by consistent high level production resulting in team success, not sporadic glittering performances sandwiched around terrible games.

Joel Embiid scored 34 points, grabbed a team-high 13 rebounds, and passed for four assists--including the feed to Harden for the game-winning shot. Embiid was not credited with a blocked shot, but his presence in the paint anchored Philadelphia's defense. Embiid became noticeably fatigued down the stretch, which limited his effectiveness at both ends of the court: he became a step slower defensively, and he became a much more passive player offensively, though he still managed to make some key plays.

Tyrese Maxey was the only other 76er who scored in double figures (14 points).

All five Boston starters scored in double figures, as did Sixth Man of the Year Award winner Malcolm Brogdon (19 points). Jayson Tatum led the Celtics with 24 points while also snaring a game-high 18 rebounds, dishing for six assists, and blocking four shots--but it was a tale of two halves for Boston's best player: he missed his first eight field goal attempts of the game (the worst such stretch at the start of any game in his playoff career), and he finished the first half with just two points on 1-9 field goal shooting. Tatum's slow start is a major reason that the Celtics trailed 59-50 at halftime and had to fight uphill for most of the game. Jaylen Brown scored 23 points on 10-16 field goal shooting. He was the only Celtic who made more than half of his field goal attempts, and when he had the ball he was the most aggressive and consistent Celtic throughout the entire course of the game; it was unfortunate for the Celtics that he did touch the ball often during the overtime, and that he did not attempt a single shot during the extra session.

Despite the Celtics' cold start and Harden's hot shooting, the Celtics battled all the way back from a 16 point deficit to take a 105-100 lead after Brogdon drained a three pointer with 2:04 remaining in regulation. NBA teams leading by five with two minutes or less remaining are overwhelming statistical favorites to win, but the 76ers tied the score less than one minute later after Harden scored on a drive and P.J. Tucker converted a putback plus a free throw to complete a three point play. Marcus Smart put the Celtics back on top by making a pair of free throws before Harden tied the game on a drive. The Celtics inbounded with 16.4 seconds remaining after Harden scored, and they elected to attack without calling a timeout, culminating with Smart missing a three pointer as time expired. Boston Coach Joe Mazzulla is being criticized for not using a timeout in that situation. Calling a timeout would have enabled the Celtics to advance the ball to midcourt without any time coming off of the clock and then run a set play--but it also would have permitted the 76ers to make situational substitutions and orchestrate a set defense. It is unlikely that the Celtics would have obtained a better shot after a timeout than the one that Smart took, and the Celtics executed that play to perfection in terms of leaving no time for the 76ers to shoot, ensuring that the Celtics would either win in regulation or fight for victory in overtime.

It would be more appropriate to question Boston Coach Joe Mazzulla's clock management and timeout usage at the end of the overtime session. After Harden's three pointer put the 76ers up by one point with 19 seconds remaining, the Celtics did not call a timeout and then proceeded to drain all of the time off of the clock without attempting a shot. Smart's three pointer for the win swished through the net, but he released the ball after time ran out. This late game scenario differed from what happened at the end of regulation because here the Celtics were trailing, which means that they could have used a timeout, advanced the ball to halfcourt before inbounding, run a set play for the game-winning shot attempt, and still had enough time left (plus one more timeout) to extend the game if they missed the shot and did not get the rebound.

Harden's game-winning shot happened because of another strategic breakdown: Brown left Harden alone in the corner to double team Embiid, giving Harden an open shot for three while the Celtics led by two; even if Embiid had scored against single coverage, the game would have been tied and the Celtics would have had the opportunity to go for a win. Brown's play was a very low percentage gamble at the worst possible time, and he admitted as much during his postgame media availability.

Modern day media coverage is focused on narratives and hot takes; it is fine to point out suboptimal plays and decisions, but it is not necessary or appropriate to draw sweeping conclusions based on one game. This game did not (1) redeem all of Harden's previous playoff failures, (2) prove that Tatum is not a great player, or (3) establish that Mazzulla is in over his head. It is possible that (1) Harden will play a major role in a championship run, (2) Tatum will demonstrate that he just cannot handle big moments, and (3) Mazzulla is not equipped to coach a championship team--but a game whose outcome was not determined until a three pointer was launched a fraction of a second after time expired is a flimsy hook upon which to attempt to support such definitive narratives. Harden has a full body of work to evaluate, Tatum is a young player who has already had many big playoff games and will presumably play in many other playoff games (including at least two more in this series!), and Mazzulla is in the process of completing his first full season at the helm. 

A calm, rational observer understands that the Celtics still have the upper hand in this series by virtue of owning homecourt advantage, so it is too soon to conclude the narrative for this series--never mind writing the definitive evaluation of Harden, Tatum, or Mazzulla (though we do have a full career's worth of data on Harden, as long as he is still an active player he has a chance to alter his story and improve his legacy).

Labels: Boston Celtics, James Harden, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Joel Embiid, Marcus Smart, Philadelphia 76ers

posted by David Friedman @ 1:59 AM

12 comments

Bigger, Stronger, Faster Celtics Overwhelm and Outlast Warriors

Anything can happen in a quarter or even in one game, but over the course of a seven game NBA playoff series the bigger, stronger, and faster team will most likely prevail. Three games into the 2022 NBA Finals, it should be obvious which team is bigger, stronger, and faster--namely, the Boston Celtics team that showcased their size, strength, and speed in a 116-100 game three win over the Golden State Warriors to take a 2-1 series lead while maintaining the home court advantage that the Celtics obtained by winning game one on the road. The Celtics dominated the boards (47-31), and they won the points in the paint battle, 52-26. Proponents of "advanced basketball statistics" value three point shooting over two point shooting, but the Warriors got blown out despite making more three pointers (15-13) while shooting a better three point field goal percentage (.375 to .371). Simply put, the Warriors cannot make enough three point shots to compensate for the Celtics' decisive physical advantages.

Jaylen Brown led the Celtics with 27 points on 9-16 field goal shooting. He also had nine rebounds and five assists. Brown did most of his scoring damage in the first quarter (17 points on 6-9 field goal shooting), but his size and skill required significant defensive attention throughout the game, even if no one will credit him with having "gravity." Jayson Tatum added 26 points, a game-high nine assists, and five rebounds. Tatum's "gravity" is even more significant than Brown's, because Tatum's size and skill set leave the Warriors with two unenviable options: cover Tatum one on one, and watch him score 30-plus points on high efficiency shooting, or force Tatum to play in a crowd while leaving his teammates wide open. The Warriors have consistently signed up for the second option, and have thus watched Tatum dissect them with pinpoint playmaking while still contributing as a scorer as well. Marcus Smart scored 24 points on 8-17 field goal shooting while also grabbing seven rebounds and passing for five assists. 

The Celtics' three best perimeter players not only outplayed the celebrated "Splash Brothers," but they became the first trio to each post a 20-5-5 stat line in an NBA Finals game since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Magic Johnson, and Michael Cooper accomplished this in game six of the 1984 NBA Finals.

Meanwhile, Robert Williams III scored eight points, ripped down a game-high 10 rebounds, spiked a game-high four blocked shots while looking like Karch Kiraly, and posted a game-best +21 plus/minus number. He looked like a man among boys in the paint at both ends of the court.

Stephen Curry scored a game-high 31 points on 12-22 field goal shooting, but it should be noted that he had two assists, three turnovers, and four fouls. We are told that Curry is one of the top 15 players of all-time, but we see that in the 2022 NBA Finals the Celtics "hunt" him defensively like a lion pursuing a lame wildebeest on the Serengeti--and this is not the first time that Curry has played the role of "prey" in such scenarios. The greatest guards of all-time--the guards in my pro basketball Pantheon--are (in chronological order) Oscar Robertson, Jerry West, Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, and Kobe Bryant. Johnson was the worst defensive player of that group, but not only was he not "hunted" like Curry, he was capable of being assigned to guard an elite player: in the 1982 NBA Finals, the Lakers matched the 6-9 Johnson up with Pantheon small forward Julius Erving to try to keep Erving off of the offensive boards. Johnson was an elite rebounder who could capably guard multiple positions. 

Klay Thompson scored 25 points, but his 7-17 field goal shooting is not going to concern or bother the Celtics. Thompson was an elite defender prior to his two serious leg injuries, but now he is just a solid defender.

Draymond Green, the Warriors' mouth that roared, went beyond "triple single" status to coin a new statistical category: the straight flush (four rebounds, three assists, two points). If there were an "advanced basketball statistic" depicting an inverse correlation between words spoken and impact created, Green would lead the league in that category by a wide margin. He tells everyone how great he is, how smart he is, and how great his team is, and he hopes that his torrent of words will distract us from the reality that he is overrated. Yes, he is a very good player who can have a positive impact, but at the core he is an undersized power forward who is not a scoring threat and who can be overpowered by any big player who has a modicum of skill. There is no way that Green could be the best player on a playoff team, and no one would have ever heard of him if he had not been blessed to play with multiple All-Star caliber players throughout his career.

From a wider historical perspective, we are getting just a glimpse of what it would look like if a championship team from the 1980s or 1990s teleported into the 2022 NBA Finals to face the Warriors: Green is outmatched by Robert Williams III playing on one healthy knee, so it is obvious that Green could not do much versus Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Moses Malone, Robert Parish, or Hakeem Olajuwon. Green could not play center against those guys without being embarrassed, and Green would not have fared well versus that era's elite power forwards, either. Kevin McHale once said, quite correctly, that Green "could not grow enough to guard me." McHale also has derisively noted that the "7-11 defense" (a defensive player holding his arms straight in the air as if he is being robbed at a 7-11) never works. Green often had no choice but to play the "7-11 defense" as Williams III outmuscled and outjumped Green for rebounds. 

It was also annoying to watch Green bark at the referees after he fouled out; fouling out should not come with a license to endlessly complain, so the referees should have hit Green with a technical foul to encourage him to sit down and shut his mouth. The extent to which the NBA permits Green to run roughshod over their referees is embarrassing. The officiating crews in the NBA Finals graded out as the best of the best during the regular season; letting Green loudly and publicly belittle and berate them gives the impression that the referees are not doing a good job and are also too afraid to exert control over bad player conduct.

Size matters in the NBA, and ABC's Jeff Van Gundy spoke the obvious truth that many commentators refused to acknowledge prior to this series and are still reluctant to admit even now: the Celtics outmatch the Warriors in size and athleticism. Van Gundy suggested that the Warriors should consider altering their lineup and rotations to try to minimize the impact of the Celtics' advantages. 

The 2022 NBA Finals are poised to become the series where popular narratives go to die. We are told that Stephen Curry's three point shooting revolutionized the NBA, but the most revolutionary aspect of Golden State's run is not Curry's three point shooting but rather the impact of Kevin Durant fleeing Oklahoma City in 2016 to become a two-time champion/two-time Finals MVP with the Warriors. LeBron James formed a superteam from scratch in Miami in 2010, but Durant did something at least as revolutionary: he left an established elite team to join another established elite team, adding fuel to the "player empowerment" trend. Kawhi Leonard, Anthony Davis, Ben Simmons, and James Harden are just a few of the All-Stars who determined that the grass is greener elsewhere and then forced their way onto other teams. This notion of building a team instantly instead of organically is not good for the game; hopefully, the success of the Milwaukee Bucks last season and the Boston Celtics this season will help to end (or least curb) this trend.

Any player analysis that results in the conclusion that Curry is a top 15 player of all-time but the Warriors can replace Durant with Andrew Wiggins without losing anything is, to put it mildly, highly suspicious. Curry is a great player, but he is just not the revolutionary player who he is depicted as being. In my March 2020 article The Evolution of the Usage of the Three Point Shot, Part III, I noted that Curry's Warriors only led the NBA in three pointers made one time (2016) while James Harden's Houston Rockets ranked first in that category five times (2014-15, 2017-19; after I finished that article, Harden's Rockets led the NBA in three point field goals made in 2020 as well). Further, the Warriors never embodied the notion of jacking up three pointers all the time while playing scant attention to defense; the Warriors at their best were always a very good defensive team, while Harden's Rockets were mediocre at best defensively.

Turning our attention back to game three, the Celtics punched the Warriors in the mouth from the start, and they led most of the way. Boston led by as many as 15 points in the first quarter, and the Celtics were up 33-22 by the end of the first stanza. They outshot the Warriors .545 to .348, and they outrebounded the Warriors 16-8. 

The Warriors battled back to take an 83-82 lead with 3:45 remaining in the third quarter, but their glory was short-lived, and the Celtics never trailed again after the 3:12 mark of the third quarter. Just prior to taking that brief lead, the Warriors had a seven point possession consisting of a Curry three pointer, a Curry free throw after Al Horford was called for a flagrant foul for not letting Curry land safely, and an Otto Porter three pointer. The Warriors scored almost as many points on that possession as they did in the entire fourth quarter!

Much has been said about the "third quarter Warriors," but it is odd that so little is being said about the "fourth quarter Celtics": the Celtics are not only winning the fourth quarters in the 2022 NBA Finals, but they are leading the series 2-1 in no small part because of their fourth quarter dominance, so that would seem to be more significant than whatever the Warriors are doing in the third quarters. Boston won the fourth quarter of game three 23-11 as Curry scored two points on 1-4 field goal shooting and Thompson did not score while missing all three of his field goal attempts. The Warrior's 11 fourth quarter points are the third fewest in an NBA Finals game dating back to the beginning of the shot clock era.

Labels: Boston Celtics, Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Klay Thompson, Marcus Smart, Robert Williams III, Stephen Curry

posted by David Friedman @ 2:54 AM

4 comments

Warriors Ride Late Third Quarter Run to Blowout Victory

The Boston Celtics won game one of the NBA Finals convincingly and they were within striking distance of a game two victory before the Golden State Warriors hit them with a 19-2 run in the final 4:58 of the third quarter. The Celtics never recovered, and the Warriors won 107-88 to tie the series at one game apiece as the action shifts to Boston for games three and four. The main story of game two was Golden State's excellent defense (or Boston's bad offense, depending on how you view it); the Warriors' offensive efficiency improved little from game one, but Boston's offensive efficiency cratered from 120 points on .506 field goal shooting to 88 points on .375 field goal shooting.

It is not surprising that the Warriors responded to their game one loss by being more energetic and physical in game two, but it is surprising that Draymond Green is permitted to repeatedly throw opposing players to the ground, hit opposing players with forearms and/or elbows aimed above the neck, and instigate confrontations while only being punished with one technical foul. As ABC's Jeff Van Gundy has repeatedly noted, there is a bizarre double standard that works in Green's favor: Green is expected to behave poorly, so he is therefore given a benefit of the doubt that is not given to players who are more mild-mannered. Had another player fouled a three point shooter, landed on top of the shooter, rested his legs on the opposing player, and then grabbed the opposing player's shorts after the opposing player pushed his legs aside--as Green did to Jaylen Brown late in the second quarter--that player would have received a technical foul; unfortunately, because Green was the offender here and he had already received a technical foul, the referees assessed no penalty. Basically, after Green received his first technical foul he had a license to commit any mayhem short of a flagrant foul without being penalized. In the good old days, the game was more physical than this and yet also more sensibly officiated: players had a lot contact when the ball was live, but dead ball contact was not tolerated, and the issuance of a first technical foul was not a license to commit future mayhem but a warning that you are one false step away from being ejected. 

If Green behaves in a similar way in a subsequent game and receives an ejection and/or suspension, no one should sympathize with him or the Warriors; Green pushes the envelope deliberately and repeatedly, so he, his team, and his team's fans have to accept the logical consequences of his actions. That is why I dismiss as irrelevant the notion that the Warriors would have won the 2016 NBA Finals if Green had not been suspended for one game during that series: being suspended is a logical consequence of how Green behaves, so if/when he is suspended no one should be surprised or sympathetic. Green and the Warriors apparently believe that the benefits that Green provide outweigh the risks of him being ejected and/or suspended.

I have no problem with the Warriors (or any other team) pressuring the ball, being physical (within the rules) with cutters, and playing with great energy--but much of what Green does is not physical but just cheap (if not dirty). Again, in the gold old days there were ways to deal with such conduct; one way was to put your 10th, 11th, or 12th man in the game, and make sure that he squared off with the offender: maybe the reserve would crack the offender with a hard screen, maybe he would get in his face, but the message would be clear that the offender needed to settle down, or else risk getting caught up in a fracas with a player whose basketball value is minimal. 

Instead, in game two the referees gave Green a metaphorical license to kill, and the Celtics seemed puzzled about how to respond; it looked and felt like at a certain point the Celtics just gave in and figured, "We already took home court advantage, and we can finish this series at home even if we don't win game two." I am not suggesting that the Celtics should take that approach or even that they took that approach consciously, but rather I am suggesting that it is human nature to be a bit satisfied with a 1-1 road split as opposed to digging deep to win a second road game against a very determined team.

Stephen Curry led the Warriors in scoring for the second straight game, netting 29 points on 9-21 field goal shooting, including 5-12 from three point range. Jordan Poole added 17 points on 6-11 field goal shooting. Kevon Looney contributed 12 points on 6-6 field goal shooting, plus a team-high seven rebounds. Looney had a +24 plus/minus number, tying Curry and Otto Porter Jr. (who had just three points in 15 minutes) for game-high honors. Klay Thompson (11 points on 4-19 field goal shooting) and Andrew Wiggins (11 points on 4-12 field goal shooting) were Golden State's other double figure scorers. Green led the Warriors in histrionics while posting yet another "triple single" (nine points, seven assists, five rebounds) with a +7 plus/minus number.

Jayson Tatum topped the Celtics with 28 points on 8-19 field goal shooting, but he had a game-worst -36 plus/minus number, and his scoring total had more empty calories than nourishment, much like Curry's game one performance; both players scored a lot early during their respective big performances, but then disappeared down the stretch when the opposing team blew the game open. Jaylen Brown added 17 points on 5-17 field goal shooting but he was a non-factor in the second half. Derrick White (12 points on 4-13 field goal shooting) was the only other Boston player who scored more than six points. Game one heroes Al Horford and Marcus Smart disappeared in game two, finishing with two points each while combining to commit seven turnovers.

Did the Warriors make some incredible adjustment between games--or at halftime of game two--that changed everything? No; what we saw is the home team play with great desperation to avoid falling into an 0-2 hole, while the road team fought for a while before giving in and setting their sights on game three.

It is amusing to observe the game to game overreactions during an NBA playoff series; when a team wins, commentators act as if there is no way to imagine the other team ever winning another game, and then when the other team bounces back commentators act as if there is no way to imagine the first team ever winning another game. I never expected or predicted that the Celtics would sweep the Warriors, so a Golden State home win does not change my belief that the Celtics are the superior team that will eventually take the series. Frankly, a game two win by the Celtics would have been at least a mild surprise to me, because then the series would be unlikely to last six games, which is how long I expect the series to last. The so-called "momentum" from game two will last about as long and mean about as much as the so-called "momentum" from game one; game three will be a separate entity played in a different venue with a different officiating crew, and it is almost always the case that role players perform better at home than on the road. One trend worth noting is that the Celtics have yet to lose back to back games in the 2022 playoffs.

Labels: Al Horford, Boston Celtics, Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Marcus Smart, Stephen Curry

posted by David Friedman @ 2:07 AM

12 comments

Boston Versus Golden State Preview

NBA Finals

Boston (51-31) vs. Golden State (53-29) 

Season series: Tied, 1-1

Golden State can win if…the "Splash Brothers" trio--Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Jordan Poole--not only maintain their long distance sharpshooting but they continue to attack closeouts with aggressive drives to the hoop. The Warriors also must move actively off of the ball, and they must defend Boston's big wings Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown without committing so much help defense that the paint becomes open for drives, post ups and offensive rebounds.

Curry is leading Golden State in 2022 playoff scoring (25.9 ppg) and playoff assists (6.2 apg). His shooting splits (.449/.380/.822) are below his career norms across the board, but not by much (other than free throw shooting). Curry averaged 23.8 ppg, 7.4 apg, and 6.8 apg with shooting splits of .444/.439/.840 in the Warriors' Western Conference Finals win against the Dallas Mavericks en route to receiving the inaugural Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP.

Thompson's 2022 playoff averages (19.8 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 2.4 apg, shooting splits of .457/.399/.800) almost mirror his career playoff averages of 19.3 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 2.2 apg with shooting splits of .444/.412/.838. The eye test says that he is not quite at the level he reached before suffering devastating knee and Achilles injuries, but the numbers say that he is still a very effective player. To the extent that he has lost a step, this is more evident on defense, which is why Andrew Wiggins now draws the toughest defensive assignment on the wings.

During the 2022 playoffs, Poole has been the most efficient of Golden State's three main sharpshooters, with shooting splits of .531/.393/.917. He is averaging 18.4 ppg and 4.5 apg.

In 2022, Andrew Wiggins made the All-Star team for the first time in his career. He is averaging 15.8 ppg in the playoffs, but his primary value (at least in the postseason) has been on defense.

Draymond Green is the quintessential example of a player who is very important for a good team but would be much less important for a weak team. As Charles Barkley jokingly notes, Green is averaging a "triple single" (8.7 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 6.3 apg) in the 2022 playoffs. The valuable things that Green does best are not easily measured: setting screens, making good reads (assist only partially track this), orchestrating the defense, guarding the opposing team's best big man, and being a willing and skilled help defender. If he did all of those things for a bad team, that team would still lose, but when he does all of those things for a stacked team that stacked team becomes very dangerous.

Kevon Looney's playoff numbers are not sensational (6.1 ppg, 7.7 rpg), but he is the only player in the Warriors' rotation who is big for his position. Size bothers the Warriors, but they get by with Looney taking care of one big man and Green's active defense filling in the gaps while Wiggins and Thompson do most of the perimeter work.

Boston will win because…size bothers the Warriors, and the Celtics have effective size at each position: big men Al Horford and Robert Williams will punish the Warriors in the paint, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are big wing players, and Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart plays bigger than his height/weight might suggest. 

The Celtics have been a legit contender for several years--reaching the Eastern Conference Finals in 2017, 2018, and 2020--but because they had not reached the NBA Finals since 2010 they have flown under the radar to some extent. After their slow start this season, they were not only under the radar but they were sinking beneath the sonar as well. 

Tatum is averaging 27.0 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 5.9 apg, and 1.2 spg with shooting splits of .446/.375/.833 in 18 playoff games. He won the inaugural Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP after averaging 25.0 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 5.6 apg, and 1.1 spg with shooting splits of .462./.353/.860 in a seven game series win versus the number one seeded Miami Heat. 

Brown averaged 24.1 ppg and 7.1 rpg versus the Heat, and during the playoffs overall he is averaging 22.9 ppg and 6.8 rpg. He is not as spectacular as Tatum, but he is perhaps the more consistent player.

Horford led the Celtics in rebounding versus the Heat (10.0 rpg), and he just missed averaging a double double during that series, scoring 9.8 ppg. He is averaging 11.9 ppg and a team-high 9.6 rpg during the playoffs.

Smart struggled with his shot versus the Heat (.360 FG%), but he contributed 16.6 ppg, 6.2 rpg, and a team-high 6.2 apg. Overall, his playoff averages are 15.5 ppg, 4.5 rpg, and a team-high 6.2 apg. Smart can defend point guards, shooting guards, and small forwards.

Other things to consider: Media members have their narratives ready: the Golden State Warriors are a great dynasty, Stephen Curry is a top 10 all-time player, and Kevin Durant was not the best player on the Warriors' back to back 2017-18 championship teams. 

The Warriors have reached the NBA Finals six times in the past eight seasons, which by historical standards is unquestionably a dynasty: only Bill Russell's Boston Celtics, the Jerry West-Elgin Baylor L.A. Lakers, the Magic Johnson-Kareem Abdul-Jabbar L.A. Lakers, and the Michael Jordan-Scottie Pippen Chicago Bulls made it to the NBA Finals at least six times in an eight year span. It should be emphasized that Russell's Celtics are in a category by themselves, winning 11 titles in 13 seasons. One difference between the Warriors and most of those other dynasties is that the other dynasties had the same top two players throughout their runs, with the exception of the West-Baylor Lakers adding Wilt Chamberlain after already losing five times in the NBA Finals. The Warriors won one title with Curry and Thompson leading the way, then they won two titles with Durant as clearly the best player, and now they have reached the NBA Finals for the first time since Durant departed.

Four Warriors are averaging double figures in scoring in the playoffs, but that number increased to six versus Dallas in the Western Conference Finals as Green and Looney joined Curry, Thompson, Poole, and Wiggins. The Warriors have a tremendous ensemble cast, superior to other teams that won the NBA Finals with ensemble casts (most notably Seattle in 1979 and Detroit in 2004). Curry is better than Dennis Johnson and Chauncey Billups (the Finals MVPs in 1979 and 2004 respectively), but he is not at the same level as Russell, West, Baylor, Johnson, Abdul-Jabbar, Jordan, Pippen, or Durant. Curry is the best player on a team that relies on strength in numbers, and on a very underrated defense that is--to put it mildly--not built around Curry.

However, I would be surprised if six Warriors averaged double figures against Boston's defense. The Celtics are not going to shut down the Warriors, but they are going to hold the Warriors to somewhere between 105-110 ppg instead of the 114.5 ppg that the Warriors have averaged so far in the 2022 playoffs.

Nothing that happens in the 2022 Finals changes or invalidates what Durant accomplished in the 2017 and 2018 NBA Finals. If Curry has an epic performance in the 2022 NBA Finals--30-plus ppg with efficient shooting numbers--that adds to his already impressive resume but it does not retroactively make him the Warriors' best player in 2017 and 2018, nor does it make him a better player than Durant.

The reality is that Curry's previous track record and Boston's current defense make it very unlikely that Curry will average 30 ppg in the Finals, let alone post efficient shooting numbers. If the Warriors win, they will win because their collective firepower overwhelms Boston's collective firepower.

The Warriors, by virtue of being completely healthy, are the best team that the Celtics have faced in the 2022 playoffs, but the Celtics are also by far the best team that the Warriors have faced in the 2022 playoffs. In their first three playoff series, the Warriors have yet to battle a team that can not only match up with them on the perimeter, but can also attack them in the paint.

I predict that the Celtics will win in six games.

Labels: Al Horford, Andrew Wiggins, Boston Celtics, Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Jordan Poole, Klay Thompson, Marcus Smart, Stephen Curry

posted by David Friedman @ 10:41 AM

12 comments

Celtics Lead Wire to Wire, Beat Heat in Game Seven to Advance to the NBA Finals

The 2022 Eastern Conference Finals featured high peaks and low valleys for both the Boston Celtics and the Miami Heat, culminating in a game seven 100-96 win for the Celtics, who never trailed. This playoff series was as competitive and hard fought as it was unpredictable from game to game--and even quarter to quarter. The Celtics rode a 24-2 second half run to a road win in game five, but then Jimmy Butler scored 47 points in Miami's game six win on the road. 

In game seven, Jayson Tatum led the Celtics with 26 points on 9-21 field goal shooting. He also had 10 rebounds, six assists, and just two turnovers while playing nearly 46 minutes. Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart each added 24 points. Brown shot 8-15 from the field and had six rebounds and six assists. Smart shot 8-22 from the field with nine rebounds and five assists. Al Horford scored five points on 2-9 field goal shooting, but he snatched a game-high 14 rebounds, and he led the Celtics with a +10 plus/minus number. Tatum received the first annual Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP. During the game, Tatum wore a purple and gold armband to honor Kobe Bryant, his favorite player, and Tatum mentioned Bryant upon accepting the MVP trophy. 

Jimmy Butler scored a game-high 35 points on 13-24 field goal shooting. He had nine rebounds, one assist, and one turnover while playing all 48 minutes. Whether or not you are a Heat fan, you have to respect Butler's effort level, his unselfish leadership, and his no excuse mentality. There are many players who have won regular season MVPs whose playoff resumes pale in comparison to Butler's. Bam Adebayo contributed 25 points on 12-21 field goal shooting plus a team-high 11 rebounds. Kyle Lowry was Miami's only other double figure scorer (15 points, 4-12 field goal shooting). Victor Oladipo, who provided a spark at various points throughout this series, had nine points on 4-12 field goal shooting, but he also posted a game-best +16 plus/minus number in 33 minutes.

The NBA is often a first quarter league, and that proved to be the case in game seven. The Celtics jumped out to leads of 6-0, 9-1, 12-3, and 20-7 in the opening stanza. They were up 32-17 after the first 12 minutes. The Celtics forced six turnovers and shot 12-24 (.500) from the field while holding the Heat to 7-20 (.350) field goal shooting. Tatum topped the Celtics in points (eight), rebounds (six), and assists (three) even though he shot just 3-9 from the field. Butler and Adebayo led the Heat with six first quarter points apiece.

Butler erupted for 18 second quarter points on 5-5 field goal shooting as the Heat trimmed the margin to 55-49 by halftime. The teams played to a virtual standstill in the third quarter, so the Celtics led 82-75 with 12 minutes left in regulation. Both teams struggled to make shots in the fourth quarter, as the Celtics managed just 18 points on 5-16 (.312) field goal shooting while the Heat had 21 points on 10-27 (.370) field goal shooting. The Celtics inched their lead to 98-85 after Smart converted a pair of free throws with 3:35 remaining, but the Heat are a never say die team, and they reeled off nine straight points to claw to within 98-96 with just under 51 seconds left. Smart missed a layup with 22 seconds remaining, Butler grabbed the rebound, burst downcourt, and fired up a three pointer with 16.6 seconds left. ESPN's Jeff Van Gundy questioned Butler's shot selection--arguing that Butler should have driven to the hoop in transition versus Horford--but Butler is a big shot maker even though he is not a great three point shooter. As Van Gundy also said, you have to live with that kind of shot from your best player, provided that you are willing to die with that kind of shot.

After the game, Butler said, "My thought process was go for the win, which I did. Missed a shot. But I'm taking that shot. My teammates liked the shot that I took. So I'm living with it." 

Van Gundy and Butler are both right: analytically, Butler's three point shot may not have been the highest percentage play, but in the real world you ride or die with the rhythm shots that your best player takes. The Heat would not have been in position to win this series without Butler, and he had earned the right to go for the win. 

Smart closed out the scoring by making two free throws.

The Heat battled through injuries to post the best record in the Eastern Conference this season, and they had a shot to win game seven at home to advance to the NBA Finals for the second time in three seasons. If they are reasonably healthy next season then they will remain a top contender.

Redemption could be the theme for the Celtics' 2022 playoff run so far, as they have eliminated the teams that eliminated them in the last three postseasons: Milwaukee Bucks (2019), Miami Heat (2020), and Brooklyn Nets (2021). The Celtics won the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2010, after losing one round short of the NBA Finals in 2012, 2017, 2018, and 2020. The 2012 Celtics featured the last hurrah of the Kevin Garnett-Paul Pierce-Ray Allen trio, but Brown and Smart were on the 2017, 2018, and 2020 squads, while Tatum was a member of the 2018 and 2020 teams.

Labels: Bam Adebayo, Boston Celtics, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Jimmy Butler, Marcus Smart, Miami Heat

posted by David Friedman @ 4:07 AM

3 comments

Celtics Roll to Convincing Win in Miami, Tie Eastern Conference Finals at 1-1

The Boston Celtics at full strength are much better than the Boston Celtics sans two starters. That should be obvious, but much of the commentary after Miami beat Boston in game one of the Eastern Conference Finals ignored or minimized that simple truth. At one point, it seemed unlikely that Al Horford and Marcus Smart would both return for game two, but they did, and the Celtics rolled to a 127-102 win. Smart scored 24 points while also leading the Celtics in assists (12) and rebounds (nine). Jayson Tatum contributed a team-high 27 points plus five rebounds and five assists. Jaylen Brown added 24 points and eight rebounds, while Grant Williams scored 19 points. Horford had an impact more significant than his 10 points and three rebounds may suggest.

Jimmy Butler had another excellent game for the Heat (29 points on 11-18 field goal shooting, six rebounds, three assists), but no other Heat player scored more than 14 points, and the Heat shot just .442 from the field, including .294 from three point range. 

The Heat jumped out to an 18-8 first quarter lead in the first 4:31, but less than five minutes later the Celtics were up 23-21 after Payton Pritchard hit a three pointer. The Celtics never looked back, outscoring the Heat 35-24 in the first quarter while shooting .632 from the field and holding the Heat to .375 field goal shooting. 

The Celtics had a double digit lead the rest of the way, and their 70-45 halftime advantage is the largest halftime lead in a road playoff game in the franchise's storied history.

Butler keyed a brief third quarter rally to cut the margin to 84-67, but the Celtics soon pushed their lead back to 30 (103-73) early in the fourth quarter.

Jeff Van Gundy made an excellent point during the broadcast: he noted that when the Celtics committed to Marcus Smart as their point guard (after previously using Kyrie Irving and Kemba Walker), the Celtics then had the ability to be much more flexible defensively because Smart can effectively switch on to bigger players, something that neither Irving nor Walker can do. Size matters in the NBA, and it is difficult to win at the highest level if you rely too heavily on smaller players. While it is true that Kyrie Irving played a major role on Cleveland's 2016 championship team, it is also true that in general is it more difficult to build a championship team featuring smaller players in prominent rules than it is to build a championship team that does not rely heavily on smaller players.

On the other hand, Zach Harper's bizarre commentary earlier in the day on Sirius XM NBA Radio asserting that Smart's return might hurt the Celtics because Smart is not a great passer or shooter not only did not age well--it made little sense when Harper said it. Anyone who followed the Celtics with understanding realizes that utilizing Smart as the primary playmaker brought balance to the Celtics' offense and enabled Tatum to focus on scoring without monopolizing the ball. We hear so much about how vital it is to have "range shooting" in order to score efficiently and prolifically--but in game two the Celtics scored 127 points on .512 field goal shooting with Smart shooting 8-22 from the field.

Anyone can have an incorrect take or make a prediction that does not come to pass, but when a commentator on the NBA's official radio network consistently says things that make no sense and have no basis in fact it is fair to ask what that person's qualifications are to have such a platform, and to wonder why that person continues to be provided such a platform despite demonstrated incompetence. 

No, Payton Pritchard's "range shooting" is not more valuable than the total package of skills provided by Smart. Further, while we are focusing on things that are said that make no sense, it should be noted that Stephen Curry is not the only NBA player who has "gravity." I am not sure when "gravity" was plucked from physics to become an NBA term, but it has always been true that great NBA players attracted defensive attention that created open shots for their teammates. During the three NBA Finals contested by the Philadelphia 76ers and L.A. Lakers in the early 1980s, the Lakers played an illegal zone defense (sometimes the Lakers were called for it, sometimes they got away with it), sagging toward Julius Erving while daring his teammates to shoot. At that time, teams rarely shot three pointers, so the Lakers did not have to extend their defensive coverage the way that teams do now, but the principle was the same then as it is now: superstars attract defensive attention that creates open shot opportunities for their teammates. Even if the superstar is not a great shooter, he will still force the defense to tilt toward him to minimize his driving opportunities--that was true from Elgin Baylor to Julius Erving to Michael Jordan to Kobe Bryant to LeBron James to Giannis Antetokounmpo. The three point shot rule and various defensive rules changes forced tweaks in the specific defensive strategies employed over the years, but the players listed above had just as much "gravity" as anyone in pro basketball history. In this series, Tatum and Butler have the most "gravity," and anyone who is paying attention can see how their "gravity" pulls defenders toward them/away from their teammates.

Miami's game one win is a distant memory now. The Celtics enjoy homecourt advantage, and the Heat will have to take at least one game in Boston to win this series.

Labels: Al Horford, Boston Celtics, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Jimmy Butler, Marcus Smart, Miami Heat

posted by David Friedman @ 1:27 AM

12 comments

Celtics Avoid Elimination, Defeat Bucks in Milwaukee to Tie Series at 3-3

One of the paradoxes of the NBA playoffs is that home court advantage is significant in the long run over a large sample size of games, but within the confines of a series between two evenly matched teams either team can win on the road. The Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks each won 51 regular season games, they tied their regular season series at 2-2, and now they are tied 3-3 in their second round best of seven series after Boston won 108-95 in Milwaukee. The teams could not be more evenly matched, yet this playoff series has had some anomalies: three of the games have been decided by at least 10 points, and the road team has won four games. 

Jayson Tatum led Boston in game six with 46 points on 17-32 field goal shooting, including 7-15 from three point range. He also had nine rebounds, four assists, and a game-best +21 plus/minus number. Giannis Antetokounmpo nearly matched Tatum shot for shot (44 points on 14-30 field goal shooting), but the difference is that two other Celtics scored more than 20 points but no other Buck scored more than 17 points. Jaylen Brown had 22 points on 7-16 field goal shooting, and Marcus Smart added 21 points on 8-16 field goal shooting. In contrast, Jrue Holiday scored 17 points on 7-17 field goal shooting, and Pat Connaughton contributed 14 points on 6-8 field goal shooting. The absence of injured All-Star Khris Middleton was keenly felt by the Bucks in this game, and has been a significant factor as the Bucks' 2-1 series lead slipped to a 3-3 tie.

Antetokounmpo had a game-high 20 rebounds, becoming the first player to have a 40-20 playoff game since Shaquille O'Neal did it in the 2001 NBA Finals versus the Philadelphia 76ers. Antetokounmpo shot 14-15 from the free throw line and he had a team-high six assists. It is not reasonable to expect more from Antetokounmpo, but the Bucks must get more from his supporting cast.

Milwaukee has won twice in Boston during this series, and Milwaukee won game seven in Brooklyn during last year's playoffs, so we know the Bucks are capable of beating the Celtics on Sunday. However, the most difficult road game to win in a series is game seven. In my 2022 Playoff Predictions, I picked the Bucks to win the NBA title but I also sounded a cautionary note about the way that they voluntarily gave up the second seed on the final day of the season to set up a first round matchup with the Chicago Bulls: "I do not like the way that the Bucks rested their starters in the final game of the season to 'clinch' the third seed instead of fighting for the second seed, but there is no denying that this looks like a great first round matchup for the Bucks (who may regret not having home court advantage in the second round if they face the Celtics)." I picked the Bucks to win this series in six games, but I again criticized the way that the Bucks manipulated the standings: "As much as I respect the Bucks, I did not like it when they did not play their normal starting lineup in the final game of the regular season, content to lose that game, drop to the third seed, and face the Bulls in the first round even if that cost them home court advantage in the second round. Neither the Nets nor the Bulls offered much resistance in the first round, but now the Celtics enjoy home court advantage in this series. That could be an important factor if this series goes the distance, but I think that both of these teams can win on the road, and that the Bucks will take the pivotal game five in Boston before winning at home in game six to close out the series."

The moment of potential regret for the Bucks that I alluded to before the playoffs began has now arrived, and some might call it karma for messing with the basketball gods by not trying to win the 82nd regular season game. I am not one of those analysts/commentators who changes his predictions after every game during a series. I picked the Bucks to win the series in six games, which will not happen, but I still believe that the Bucks are the slightly better team and that they will find a way to win game seven. 

Labels: Boston Celtics, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday, Marcus Smart, Milwaukee Bucks

posted by David Friedman @ 11:57 PM

0 comments

Milwaukee Versus Boston Preview

Eastern Conference Second Round

#3 Milwaukee (51-31) vs. #2 Boston (51-31)

Season series: Tied, 2-2

Boston can win if…the Celtics' elite defense prevents Giannis Antetokounmpo from dominating in the paint without giving up high percentage shot attempts to Jrue Holiday, Grayson Allen, and Milwaukee's other three point shooters. 

The Celtics swept the Brooklyn Nets with a balanced scoring attack plus a stifling defense that held Kevin Durant to 26.3 ppg on .386 field goal shooting. Jayson Tatum led both teams in scoring (29.5 ppg) and assists (7.3 apg) while also making a significant impact on defense as the primary defender against Durant. The Celtics forced Durant and Kyrie Irving (21.3 ppg on .444 field goal shooting) to play in a crowd and shoot under duress while also making sure that the Nets' supporting cast did not run wild. The Celtics have tremendous size, speed, and versatility. 

Jaylen Brown (22.5 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 4.3 apg) had an excellent all-around series versus the Nets, as did 2022 NBA Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart (16.5 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 7.0 apg). Al Horford (13.0 ppg, series-high 7.5 rpg) showed that he still has a lot left in the tank. Horford has defended well against Antetokounmpo.

Milwaukee will win because…the Bucks not only have the NBA's best player--Giannis Antetokounmpo--but they have the necessary size, depth, and versatility to match up with the Celtics. The Bucks' frontcourt of Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez, and Bobby Portis will not be pushed around by any team. The advantages that the Celtics enjoyed versus the Nets will not work in the Celtics' favor against the Bucks: the Nets have a small team that does not effectively attack the paint or defend the paint, but the Bucks attack the paint not only with Antetokounmpo but also with Lopez and Portis. On defense, the Bucks aggressively defend the paint and force their opponents to make three pointers. The Bucks shut down the Chicago Bulls during the first round. 

Antetokounmpo averaged 28.6 ppg, 13.4 rpg, and 6.2 apg versus the Bulls while shooting .568 from the field. Holiday had subpar shooting splits (.407/.345/.600) but he averaged 6.8 apg and played his usual first-rate defense. He will need to shoot better versus the Celtics for the Bucks to win, particularly because the Bucks will likely be without the services of All-Star Khris Middleton for the entire series. Portis' scoring and rebounding (11.6 ppg, 11.4 rpg versus the Bulls) and Allen's three point shooting (14-24, .583 versus the Bulls) will be very important, particularly with Middleton out of the lineup.

Other things to consider: The Bucks will miss the all-around play that Middleton provides. During game two of the Chicago series, Middleton injured the MCL in his left knee, and he has not played since he got hurt. However, the Bucks have enough talent and depth to survive until Middleton returns. 

This will be an interesting matchup of two well-coached, high-performing teams that flew under the radar for much of this season as media attention focused on other teams, including the Brooklyn Nets and the L.A. Lakers.

Holiday won the Twyman-Stokes Teammate of the Year award for the second time in three years. This honor may not have the same high profile as MVP or Rookie of the Year, but it emphasizes the enduring importance of character, and it was nice that Ernie Johnson mentioned the award during one of TNT's pregame shows. It is interesting that Holiday decided to not have the presentation ceremony right now so that the team stays focused on its playoff goals. Character matters, and character combined with talent is a championship combination. It is not a coincidence that the Bucks won their first championship since 1971 in the first season after Holiday joined the team.

As much as I respect the Bucks, I did not like it when they did not play their normal starting lineup in the final game of the regular season, content to lose that game, drop to the third seed, and face the Bulls in the first round even if that cost them home court advantage in the second round. Neither the Nets nor the Bulls offered much resistance in the first round, but now the Celtics enjoy home court advantage in this series. That could be an important factor if this series goes the distance, but I think that both of these teams can win on the road, and that the Bucks will take the pivotal game five in Boston before winning at home in game six to close out the series.

Labels: Boston Celtics, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, Marcus Smart, Milwaukee Bucks

posted by David Friedman @ 11:40 PM

2 comments

Celtics Advance to Second Round After Sweeping Nets

I am often skeptical of the "team no one wants to face" cliche. This year's "team no one wants to face"--the team that the reigning NBA champion Milwaukee Bucks apparently did not want to face in the first round--just got swept. Perhaps everyone should have wanted to face the Brooklyn Nets and their mismatched roster that has shooters who lack size and players who have size but lack shooting touch. The notion that Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving could somehow lead this crew past a balanced, deep, and talented Boston team was as wrong as it was short-lived. The Celtics were perhaps the best team in the league over the last 40 games or so, and on Monday night they ended the Nets' season with a 116-112 game four victory.

Jayson Tatum led the Celtics with 29 points before fouling out with 2:49 remaining in the fourth quarter and the Celtics ahead by six, 109-103. The Celtics spent the rest of the game using most of the shot clock on each possession as opposed to running their offense, but they found just enough points to keep the Nets at bay. Jaylen Brown (22 points), Marcus Smart (20 points, 11 assists), Grant Williams (14 points), and Al Horford (13 points) rounded out a balanced attack comprised of players who can score in multiple ways and who can defend multiple positions. Durant scored a game-high 39 points in 47 minutes, but he shot just 13-31 from the field as the Celtics made him work hard for every shot attempt. Irving, J.J. Redick's favorite ball handling wizard, could not conjure up enough points (20 on 6-13 field goal shooting) or assists (five) to extend Brooklyn's season for even one more game.

After I wrote my recap of Boston's thrilling 115-114 game one win over Brooklyn, a reader questioned my rationale for picking Boston to win the series, and I responded, "The Celtics are potent both offensively and defensively, so the Nets are either going to have to hold them underneath 110-115 points or else find a way to score more than 110-115 points in four games." My prediction that the 110-115 point range would be a key benchmark for this series proved to be prophetic: the Celtics scored 115, 114, 109, and 116 points in the four games, while the Nets scored 114, 107, 103, and 112. The average score in the series was 113.5-109.

Much has been said and written about Ben Simmons' absence from this series--a subject that I will discuss in a separate article--but the Nets' problems run much deeper than his unavailability. The Nets made the playoffs in 2019 with a young roster led by Coach Kenny Atkinson, but instead of developing that team organically the Nets acquired Kevin Durant--who missed all of the 2020 season due to injury--and Durant's buddy Kyrie Irving, who played in just 20 regular season games before the Nets were swept in the first round by the Toronto Raptors. 

Before even finding out what a full season with Durant and Irving might look like, the Nets--acting like putting together a championship is as simple and quick as making "Minute Rice"--acquired James Harden from Houston to assemble a "Big Three." In the Harden deal, the Nets traded away three first round draft picks and four first round draft pick swaps, plus Jarrett Allen, who made the All-Star team this year with the Cleveland Cavaliers and who could have provided the inside presence that the Nets so desperately need. During Harden's brief Brooklyn career, the Nets went 1-1 in playoff series and 4-4 in playoff games. Atkinson resigned before the end of the 2020 season. Jacque Vaughn finished the season as the interim coach, and then the Nets hired Steve Nash, who had a connection with Durant dating back to Nash's time working for Golden State while Durant led the Warriors to two titles.

Irving missed the first part of the season due to his refusal to receive the COVID-19 vaccine, and he missed most of Brooklyn's home games because he did not comply with New York City's COVID-19 vaccine mandate. Harden became disenchanted in Brooklyn this season, and quit on the Nets just like he previously quit on the Rockets, so the Nets shipped him to Philadelphia for Ben Simmons, Seth Curry, and Andre Drummond. Getting rid of Harden is addition by subtraction--particularly since it also enabled the Nets to improve their depth with Curry and Drummond--but Simmons not appearing in a single game for the Nets was the final blow for the Nets. The "Minute Rice" approach of trying to just throw talent together while treating the regular season like it does not matter backfired, and led directly to the humiliating sweep at the hands of a Boston team built the right way.

Durant had an excellent season even as the Nets struggled to make the playoffs, but he had a subpar series by his lofty standards. However, it is silly to suggest that the Nets' disappointing season and this first round sweep in any way diminish what Durant has already accomplished, which includes winning two NBA titles, two Finals MVPs, one regular season MVP, and four scoring titles. Yet, it is worth mentioning that Durant fled Oklahoma City to join the Golden State team that had just beaten his Thunder in a seven game playoff series, and then he fled Golden State presumably to prove that he did not need the Warriors' preexisting championship culture to lead a team to a title. It is not clear what situation, if any, would fill whatever void is missing for Durant.

Faulty and frantic roster building doomed the Nets, but Steve Nash's coaching did not provide any advantages, to put it mildly. The Nets never formed a defensive identity, and their offensive identity consisted of Durant or Irving dribbling until deciding to shoot or pass. There was little off ball movement, little coherent structure, and not many tactics that either lightened the burden on the stars or helped the role players to be more effective. This should not be surprising considering Nash's history, because his playoff failures as a player mirror the Nets' playoff failure this season in terms of lack of offensive structure combined with lack of effective defense.

Before Steve Nash was an NBA head coach, he was the point guard for Phoenix Suns teams that scored a ton of points without much offensive structure, and without paying particular attention to defense. Suns fans may never quit whining that the NBA stole a championship from their team in 2007 by suspending Amare Stoudemire and Boris Diaw for game five of the San Antonio-Phoenix series, but the NBA's rule prohibiting players from leaving the bench during an on court altercation is a good rule and the NBA applied it correctly in that situation. During a recent interview on Sirius XM NBA Radio, former Sun Shawn Marion admitted that the 2007 Phoenix Suns lost because they ran a simple offense that was easy to defend against, and not because of the game five suspensions. Marion said that he knew during that season that the Suns were not going to win the championship, though he added that he thought that some of the other Suns' teams from that era had a better chance to win the championship than the 2007 squad. It is not clear which Suns team Marion thought could/should have won a title; the 2005 Suns lost 4-1 to the Spurs in the Western Conference Finals, and the 2006 Suns lost 4-2 to the Mavericks in the Western Conference Finals. All of those Suns teams ran predictable offenses that relied on talent more than tactics, an approach that worked better against inferior teams during the regular season than against elite teams during the playoffs.

After the Suns won game four versus the Spurs in 2007, I wrote, "The reality is that injuries, foul trouble and suspensions are all part of the game. The 1972-73 Boston Celtics went 68-14 and then lost in the Conference Finals when John Havlicek suffered a shoulder injury; they went on to win two of the next three championships. In other words, the cream rises to the top. The Spurs and Suns have each been contending teams for several years already. The Spurs have won three championships and the Suns have not won any." That year, I not only correctly picked the Spurs to beat the Suns in six games, but before the playoffs I correctly predicted that the Spurs would beat the Cavaliers in the NBA Finals.

Prior to game five of the 2007 Spurs-Suns series, I wrote, "Game Five is a golden opportunity for Nash to outduel Tim Duncan, who in addition to also being a two-time MVP is a three-time Finals MVP. If Nash really is the best player in the game then this would be a good time to show it." The Spurs won 88-85. Tim Duncan scored 21 points on 7-14 field goal shooting while grabbing a team-high 12 rebounds and tallying a game-high five blocked shots. Nash had 19 points and 12 assists but he shot just 6-19 from the field.  

The point of that trip down memory lane is that Nash's Suns lost because their offense was too predictable, and their defense was non-existent in critical moments. The same can be said of Nash's Nets. The unanswered question is what will the Nets do to create a different outcome next season?

Labels: Boston Celtics, Brooklyn Nets, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, Marcus Smart, Steve Nash

posted by David Friedman @ 1:21 AM

2 comments