Things We Learned from the Celtics' 120-117 Win Versus the Cavaliers
The Boston Celtics built a 21 point lead, withstood a 34-15 run over a seven minute span in the third quarter, and defeated the Cleveland Cavaliers 120-117 in Boston to end Cleveland's season-opening 15 game winning streak. The 15-1 Cavaliers still have the best record in the NBA, 2.5 games ahead of the 12-3 Celtics. It must be emphasized that the Celtics won this game without the
services of Kristaps Porzingis, their starting center (and a 2018 All-Star)
who has yet to play this season due to a lower left leg injury. Assuming
that Porzingis makes a full recovery, adding him to the lineup bolsters
the Celtics at both ends of the court because of his rebounding, shot blocking/rim protection, and range shooting.
Jayson Tatum had a masterful all-around game with a team-high 33 points on 11-22 field goal shooting, a game-high 12 rebounds, and seven assists. Al Horford added 20 points and seven rebounds, Derrick White contributed 19 points, six rebounds, and five assists, and Jaylen Brown chipped in 17 points and a game-high eight assists.
Donovan Mitchell scored a game-high 35 points, Evan Mobley had 22 points and a team-high tying 11 rebounds, and Jarrett Allen scored 10 points while matching Mobley with 11 rebounds. Darius Garland dished for a team-high seven assists but he scored just eight points on 3-21 field goal shooting.
At the end of the 82 game regular season, each game counts the same in the standings, but anyone who follows the NBA knows that some games have a different feel not only for ardent fans but also for the players. "Statement game" is a cliche, but this was without question a measuring stick game for the Cavaliers to see how they stack up with the NBA champion Boston Celtics. Casual fans often call the NBA a fourth quarter league, but the fact is that the NBA is in many respects a first quarter league, because the first quarter sets the tone in terms of matchups, physicality, and general readiness to play. The Celtics jumped out to an 18-8 lead by the 5:36 mark of the first quarter, and they never trailed the rest of the way.
The Celtics shot 14-22 (.636) from three point range in the first
half, their best three point shooting half in the past 25 years. That
level of three point shooting is aberrational and unsustainable, and they shot 8-19 (.421) from beyond the arc in the second half to finish at 22-41 (.537) overall.
The easy hot take is that the Celtics beat the Cavaliers because of their tremendous three point shooting, and that the Celtics have a great chance to win the 2025 championship because they rank first in three point field goals made and first in three point field goals attempted. High volume three point shooting is lauded by "stat gurus" as the
most efficient offensive strategy, but the reality is that it is a high variance strategy, as I explained four years ago:
Offensive efficiency is not all that matters when trying to construct a
championship team: the three point shot produces much more variance
statistically than shots taken closer to the basket, meaning that a team
that shoots .380 from three point range may shoot .250 from three point
range in one game and then .510 from three point range the next game.
If a team shoots a high volume of three pointers then it will almost
certainly lose when shooting .250 from three point range, but that team
is not assured of victory even when shooting .510 from three point
range: a team that relies too heavily on three point shooting does not
have a backup plan to use when those shots are not falling, but that
team's opponents may be able to overcome giving up .510 three point
shooting by forcing turnovers, winning the rebound battle, and attacking
the paint for high percentage shots.
Last season, the
Celtics ranked second in defensive field goal percentage, second in
rebounding, and fifth in points allowed. In the article cited above, I
debunked the notion that high volume three point shooting defined the
success of the Golden State Warriors, the team that is most closely associated with the NBA's three point revolution in the past decade or so:
There is a false narrative that the Golden State Warriors proved that a
three point shooting team can win an NBA title. The Warriors proved
nothing of the sort. From 2015-2019, the Warriors ranked first, third,
first, third, and third in defensive field goal percentage; not only did
they have a backup plan if they suffered from cold three point
shooting: they had a primary plan, namely make it very difficult for
their opponents to score. Also, the Warriors did not become a
championship dynasty until they added Kevin Durant, who added deadly
midrange scoring (and, to be sure, another three point shooter) to the
three point marksmanship provided by Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson.
I wrote that article in 2020, so it is worth adding that the
2022 Golden State Warriors--who beat the Celtics in the NBA Finals--ranked second in defensive field goal percentage, third in points allowed, and seventh in rebounding.
"Stat
gurus" often tout themselves as emotionally detached objective
analysts, but in fact they speak and behave as if they are members of a
cult that propagates rigid tenets regardless of what the
factual evidence shows (this is part of a larger societal trend of
"experts" who insist that their deeply held beliefs are correct even if
those beliefs defy not only common sense but also the facts). This season's Celtics have dropped to 12th in points allowed, 20th in defensive field goal percentage, and 21st in rebounding. The difference between the Celtics and many of the other teams that have low rankings in those categories is that the Celtics proved last season that they have the necessary personnel to rebound and defend at a high level; that being said, they must get to work in those areas, because they are unlikely to repeat as champions unless they reestablish their defensive identity and their paint presence at both ends of the court. In that regard, it is interesting to note that the
Cavaliers outscored the Celtics in the paint 60-36. If Garland had performed anywhere close to his usual standard, then the Cavaliers would have won even with the Celtics shooting an outlandish three point percentage.
The Celtics shot 18-35 (.514) in the paint, which
demonstrates two things: (1) when the Celtics attacked the paint they
were efficient, and (2) the Celtics
should attack the paint more often instead of relying so heavily on high
variance three point shooting. The 2025 championship recipe for the Celtics is (1) attack the paint more often than they are doing now, (2) shore up their leaky defense, and (3) utilize the three point shot effectively based on time/score/overall game situation as opposed to seeking to attempt at least 50 three pointers a game (a stated goal of Coach Joe Mazzulla, who has done a wonderful job overall but who seems a little bit too obsessed with three point shot attempts as an indicator of offensive efficiency).
We are already nearly 20% through the 2024-25 NBA regular season, so it
is not too early to at least make preliminary assessments of teams and
players. Here is something to clip and save: the 11-4 Oklahoma City Thunder currently rank first in defensive field goal percentage and second in points allowed, but just 23rd in rebounding. Will the Thunder's stout defense be enough to make up for their lack of size and their weakness on the glass? The Cavaliers are similarly weak in rebounding (24th) and they are not in the top 10 in defensive field goal percentage (12th) or points allowed (13th). We will know more about these teams after they have played a larger sample size of games, but these rankings and trends bear watching, because at this point neither the Cavaliers nor the Celtics are defending or rebounding at a championship level. By the way, the defending Western Conference champion Dallas Mavericks are flying underneath the radar with an 8-7 record but they rank fifth in points allowed, sixth in defensive field goal percentage, and 11th in rebounding, numbers that suggest they will finish higher in the standings than they are right now.
The above analysis should not be taken to diminish the value of Boston's win over Cleveland. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have already proven that they can lead the Celtics to victory against elite teams in a playoff series: their Celtics have won two Eastern Conference Finals (2022, 2024) and one NBA championship (2024). The Celtics demonstrated that they can defend and rebound at an elite level. In contrast, this version of the Cavaliers has yet to advance past the second round of the playoffs, and must prove that they are capable of beating elite teams in a playoff series.
Labels: Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis
posted by David Friedman @ 11:49 AM
Celtics Sans Porzingis Dominate New Look Knicks on NBA Opening Night
NBA Opening Night 2024 began with the 2024 NBA champion Boston Celtics distributing their championship rings, raising their record 18th NBA championship banner, and dominating the New York Knicks. Many Celtics champions and legends showed up in person to participate in the festivities, including Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett, and Paul Pierce from Boston's 2008 championship team--but for me the poignant highlight was seeing 96 year old Bob Cousy rolled onto the court in a wheelchair: known as the "Houdini of the Hardwood" because of his magical ballhandling and passing, Cousy starred for six Celtics championship teams, including the franchise's first in 1957 when he averaged 20.7 ppg, 9.1 apg, and 6.7 rpg in the NBA Finals. Cousy deserves a lot better in his golden years than hearing nonsense about the quality of opposition that he faced, but two years ago he showed that his mind and tongue are still quite sharp when he offered his rebuttal to his ignorant critics. It must have meant so much to Cousy to be able to attend the ring ceremony and to be invited by the Celtics to do so.
In my 2024-25 Eastern Conference Preview, I picked Boston and New York as the top two teams in the East. Even without the services of starting center Kristaps Porzingis, the Celtics picked up right where they left off in the 2024 NBA Finals, overwhelming the Knicks from midway through the first quarter through the final buzzer to post a 132-109 rout. Porzingis, who averaged 20.1 ppg, 7.2 rpg, and 1.9 bpg in 57 games last season with the Celtics, will miss at least the first month of this season because of the lower left leg injury that he suffered during game five of the 2024 NBA Finals; the Celtics will be even more of a matchup nightmare after he returns to action.
Jayson Tatum scored a game-high 37 points on blistering 14-18 field goal shooting while also logging a game-high 10 assists, snaring four rebounds, and committing just one turnover en route to posting a game-high +26 plus/minus number. Tatum shot 8-11 from three point range. Derrick White added 24 points, and Jaylen Brown tallied 23 points. That Celtics trio was in the news last summer when Team USA chose White over Brown to replace the injured Kawhi Leonard while also relegating Tatum to being a seldom-used reserve. Team USA won Olympic gold, but Brown's absence and Tatum's minimal role baffled many observers. Tatum and Brown would no doubt have been highly motivated to chase a repeat NBA championship anyway, but the Team USA controversies added further fuel to the fire for two players who have often felt--with some justification--underrated and unappreciated.
Jalen Brunson and Miles McBride each scored a team-high 22 points and new addition Mikal Bridges added 16 points, but the Knicks' main off-season acquisition--Karl-Anthony Towns--contributed just 12 points and seven rebounds. The Knicks shot .551 from the field overall but just 11-30 (.367) from three point range, and their inability to even slow down the Celtics' high-powered offense was the difference: the Celtics tied the NBA's regular season single game record by making 29 three pointers, shooting .604 (29-48) from beyond the arc before missing their last 13 treys as they chased sole ownership of the record. They also matched a franchise record by drilling 17 three pointers in the first half.
The importance of the fourth quarter and "crunch time" is often emphasized, but the reality is that the NBA is in many ways a first quarter league: the matchups and tendencies that one sees in the first 12 minutes often provide a reliable preview of what will happen the rest of the way. The Knicks twice enjoyed a one point lead in the first two minutes of the first quarter before trailing for the final 46:07. The Celtics had their first double digit lead after Tatum hit a three pointer at the 3:57 mark of the first quarter to put them up 27-17, and they led by at least 10 points the rest of the way. The Celtics led 43-24 by the end of the first quarter after shooting 10-17 (.588) from three point range while the Knicks shot just 1-7 (.143) from beyond the arc.
Anyone can look at the numbers and see that three point shooting was a big factor in the outcome of this game, but in terms of evaluating these teams overall it is important to understand in detail what happened and why it happened, as opposed to just looking at the boxscore.
Tatum and Brown both used to be criticized for going one on one too often as opposed to working within the framework of the offense. They refuted that notion by the unselfish way that they played during Boston's 64-18 regular season in 2023-24 followed by a dominant 16-3 playoff run, and against the Knicks they again found the right balance of isolation play versus ball movement. Tatum and Brown both aggressively attacked favorable matchups, and they both moved the ball to the open man when the situation called for that.
The Celtics used on ball screens and off ball screens to great effect, and their laser sharp cuts led to both open shots in the paint and open shots on the perimeter. Their .505 field goal percentage and .475 three point field goal percentage are not sustainable over the course of an 82 game season, but if they continue to execute their offense with that degree of precision combined with unselfishness--willingly passing up good shots to get great shots--then they will be very difficult to defend. I am not a fan of randomly jacking up long range shots or arbitrarily deciding to attempt at least 50 three pointers per game regardless of time/score/matchups, but I am a fan of ball movement and of spreading out the defense before attacking the defense's holes, which is what the Celtics did to near perfection versus the Knicks.
All of that being said, the Knicks pride themselves on their tough, physical defense and they have to be very disappointed with both their effort and execution at that end of the court. Defense is about game plan discipline and about making multiple efforts on the same play, but the Knicks repeatedly conceded wide open shots all over the court. Their on ball pressure was soft at best, their screen/roll defense was terrible, and the Celtics had so many open shots that it looked like they were on a perpetual power play. It is too easy--and too soon--to say that the Knicks' offseason moves fatally weakened their defense, but the onus is on the Knicks to get their act together on that end of the court. Better effort and execution may not have been enough to beat the hot-shooting Celtics on this night, but the presumed second best team in the East should not trail by as many as 35 points or lose by 23 points.
Labels: Boston Celtics, Jalen Brunson, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Karl-Anthony Towns, Kristaps Porzingis, New York Knicks
posted by David Friedman @ 1:39 AM
Boston Celtics Cap Dominant Season With Dominant Win Over Dallas Mavericks
The Boston Celtics led wire to wire en route to posting a 106-88 game five win over the Dallas Mavericks to clinch an NBA record 18th championship. The Celtics notched just the third wire to wire win in an NBA Finals series-clincher since 1982, joining the 1982 L.A. Lakers and the 1986 Boston Celtics. The Celtics led by as many as 26 points in game five, and their lead never fell below 17 during the second half.
Jayson Tatum scored a game-high 31 points on 11-24 field goal shooting while also passing for a game-high 11 assists, snaring eight rebounds, and committing just two turnovers. He played a game-high 45 minutes, and he set the tone from opening tip to final buzzer while joining Walt Frazier (1970), James Worthy (1988), Michael Jordan (1991), and Stephen Curry (2017) as the only players to have at least 30 points and at least 10 assists in a Finals-clinching win.
Tatum has been much maligned by many media members--even during what turned out to be a 16-3 postseason run culminating in a championship--so it should be noted that Tatum led the Celtics in points (25.0 ppg), rebounds (9.7 rpg), and assists (6.3 apg) during the 2024 playoffs; even when Tatum is not scoring efficiently, his fingerprints are on everything that the Celtics do at both ends of the court: he is an elite defensive rebounder, he is an excellent playmaker, and even on the scoring plays for which he does not receive an assist he draws the double teams that create open shot opportunities for his teammates. He is the team's one indispensable player, and he led the Celtics in scoring (22.2 ppg), rebounding (7.8 rpg), and assists (7.2 apg) during the NBA Finals. Tatum has now won 68 career playoff games, fourth most all-time for a player younger than 27 behind only Kobe Bryant (76), Tony Parker (75), and Magic Johnson (70). Bryant, Parker, and Johnson each won three championships before the age of 27, while this championship is Tatum's first--but winning multiple championships before age 27 is the exception, not the rule, and Tatum now has won one more championship than six-time champion Michael Jordan and four-time champion LeBron James had won at age 26.
Jaylen Brown added 21 points on 7-23 field goal shooting, plus eight assists and six rebounds. Tatum is Boston's best and most complete player, but Brown's consistency helped him to earn the 2024 Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP after winning the 2024 Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP. Throughout the NBA Finals, Brown played excellent defense versus Luka Doncic in addition to providing his customary contributions as a scorer, rebounder, and passer. Brown averaged 20.8 ppg, 5.4 rpg, and 5.0 apg during the NBA Finals, but he outshot Tatum from the field (.440 to .388), and that probably made the difference in the Finals MVP voting. Brown averaged 23.9 ppg, 5.9 rpg, and 3.3 apg during the 2024 playoffs while shooting .516 from the field.
Jrue Holiday had 15 points on 7-14 field goal shooting, a team-high 11 rebounds, four assists, and a game-best +21 plus/minus number, giving the Milwaukee Bucks yet another reason to rue trading him to Portland for Damian Lillard, which resulted in Boston acquiring Holiday. Holiday has been a key contributor for two of the past four NBA champions, as he helped Milwaukee capture the 2021 title.
Al Horford, a five-time All-Star in his 17 season NBA career, had nine points and nine rebounds in game five and won his first NBA title after playing 1086 regular season games and 186 playoff games. Tatum and Brown are Boston's headliners, but Horford is a highly respected veteran who is still logging impactful minutes as a 38 year old.
Kristaps Porzingis missed 10 straight playoff games with a right calf injury, made a sensational return to action in game one of the NBA Finals, and then suffered a lower left leg injury late in game two that forced him to miss games three and four. He scored five points in 16 minutes off of the bench in game five, and his +8 plus/minus number indicates that he had a positive impact during his limited minutes. It is likely that Porzingis will need surgery followed by months of recovery time now that the season is over.
Joe Mazzulla (35) is the youngest coach to win an NBA title since Bill
Russell served as the player-coach for the 1969 Boston Celtics. Tatum is 26, and Brown is 27, so the Celtics--who have already reached the Eastern Conference Finals six times in the past eight years--are in great position to contend for championships for the next several years. Their 16-3 playoff record in 2024 is the second best since the NBA went to its current postseason format of four seven game series in 2003, trailing only the 16-1 mark posted by the Kevin Durant-Stephen Curry 2017 Golden State Warriors.
Luka Doncic scored a team-high 28 points on 12-25 field goal shooting, grabbed a game-high 12 rebounds, and passed for five assists. The only blemish on his stat line was a game-high seven turnovers--matching Boston's team total--and it is fair to say that this game was a microcosm of the series: Doncic played well against the league's best defense, but the Celtics had the necessary personnel and scheme to guard him one on one without fearing what any of Doncic's teammates would do. Anyone who watched the playoffs knows that Doncic played through an assortment of injuries without making excuses, and after game five he refused to discuss the extent of his injuries, concluding simply that he has to play better. There are many stars who would not have played through injuries the way that Doncic did, and many of the stars who might have played through injuries would certainly have not missed an opportunity to remind everyone just how injured they were: after being swept in the 2018 NBA Finals, LeBron James hastened to mention that he "pretty much played with a broken hand." James never clarified if his hand was actually broken or just "pretty much" broken, and it should be noted that the injury was self-inflicted: James punched a whiteboard after losing game one of that series. It is refreshing to not hear from Doncic how he "pretty much" played through whatever was ailing him.
ESPN's J.J. Redick has repeatedly called Kyrie Irving a "wizard," and Redick joins the chorus praising Irving as the most skilled ballhandler of all-time--but all of that so-called wizardry resulted in 15 points on 5-16 field goal shooting in game five, including 0 points on 0-3 field goal shooting in the first quarter as the Celtics took command and never looked back. Irving averaged 19.8 ppg on .414 field goal shooting during the series, numbers well below what the Mavericks needed from him. Irving was particularly bad during the three games played in Boston, and he candidly admitted that the pressure of playing in front of his former team's fans got the best of him. There is a difference between being a flashy ballhandler versus having the necessary ballhandling skills to defeat a championship-level defense, a distinction that Redick and many others fail to understand or acknowledge. It will be interesting to see how many media members continue to force
feed us the Kyrie Irving redemption narrative while ignoring Irving's unrepentant antisemitism and the fact that his Chinese shoe company profits from utilizing slave labor.
The NBA is often a first quarter league, and this game was no exception: the Celtics led 28-18 after the first 12 minutes, and the outcome was never in serious doubt the rest of the way. Every Boston starter had at least eight rebounds as the Celtics outrebounded the Mavericks, 51-35. We are told so much about "pace and space" and "small ball," but the Celtics won this championship by exploiting their old school advantages in size, defense, and versatility that I emphasized in my series preview.
The Celtics enjoyed a dominant 2023-24 regular season, posting a
64-18 record and the fifth best point differential (11.3 ppg) of
all-time, and they went 12-3 during the first three rounds of the
playoffs--but many pundits tried to convince themselves (and others)
that the Mavericks would beat the Celtics in the NBA Finals, and
that noise became louder after Dallas routed Boston in game four. If the overrated concept of momentum had any validity, then Dallas would have won game five--or at least been competitive in game five--but this series demonstrated yet again that the NBA playoffs are about matchups, not momentum. After Dallas' game four win, ESPN's Brian Windhorst blasted Doncic--who has emerged as a perennial MVP candidate--as someone who will never win a championship without dramatically changing his game, and other ESPN talking heads spent much of the time between games four and five talking about the potential implications of a Dallas win in game five. The Mavericks did not make some brilliant game four adjustments, nor did the Celtics make some brilliant game five adjustments. The reality is that the Mavericks were content to not be swept on their
court, and they did not offer much resistance in game five; the Mavericks' one win was an outlier that did not alter the fact that the Celtics enjoyed significant, decisive matchup advantages.
The Celtics earned this championship without tanking, load management, or building a "super team": they drafted two strong prospects--Brown and Tatum--and then not only patiently developed those prospects into stars, but they built around those stars while tuning out the loud voices who asserted that this duo could never lead the Celtics to a title. The Celtics' patience and wisdom has been rewarded with a championship, and it would not be surprising if the Celtics win multiple titles if they continue to demonstrate patience and wisdom.
Labels: Al Horford, Boston Celtics, Dallas Mavericks, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis, Kyrie Irving, Luka Doncic
posted by David Friedman @ 2:52 AM
Celtics Deliver Knockout After Withstanding Mavericks' Initial Punch
The Dallas Mavericks opened game three of the NBA Finals by hitting the Boston Celtics with a 22-9 punch, but the Celtics delivered a knockout by posting a 106-99 win to drop the Mavericks into a 3-0 hole from which no NBA team has ever recovered. The Celtics are the fourth team to take a 3-0 lead in each of the last two playoff series in a season, joining the 1983 Philadelphia 76ers, the 1996 Chicago Bulls, and the 2017 Golden State Warriors. If the Celtics win on Friday night, they will become the first such team to sweep both series.
Jayson Tatum scored a team-high 31 points while also contributing six rebounds and five assists. Jaylen Brown had an even better all-around game (30 points, team-high eight rebounds, game-high eight assists). Tatum did most of his damage early, registering 20 first half points, while Brown poured in 24 second half points. Tatum and Brown became the first Celtics duo to each post a 30-5-5 stat line in an NBA Finals game. Derrick White was the only other Celtic who scored in double figures (16 points). Kristaps Porzingis, the MVP of game one and a major factor at both ends of the court, missed game three with a rare lower leg injury suffered late in game two of the NBA Finals. His absence was particularly felt on the boards--Dallas outrebounded Boston, 43-36--and in the paint (Dallas outscored Boston 52-36 in the paint), but the Celtics are so big and talented that they can survive without a player who would be the second option on some very good playoff teams.
Kyrie Irving finally showed up three games into a series that may only last four games, and he scored a game-high 35 points on 13-28 field goal shooting. Luka Doncic added 27 points, but he shot just 11-27 from the field before fouling out with 4:12 remaining in the fourth quarter. He also had six rebounds and a team-high six assists. Those are good boxscore numbers for most players, but they are also acceptable numbers from Boston's perspective considering that the Celtics are containing the 2024 regular season scoring champion primarily with single coverage, which limits the lob dunks and corner three pointers that are the twin cornerstones of the Mavericks' offense. P.J. Washington had 13 points on 3-9 field goal shooting, and he grabbed eight rebounds. Dereck Lively II contributed 11 points on 5-6 field goal shooting and a game-high 13 rebounds off of the bench.
This game was even more of a roller coaster ride than usual for an NBA that has become overrun with high variance three point shooting, but the one constant is that Boston's size poses a lot of problems for Dallas. Correctly deployed size leads to high percentage shots in the paint, wide open three pointers after the opposing defense collapses into the paint, and low percentage shots for a smaller team forced to pass and shoot against long, outstretched arms. Doncic (13 points) and Irving (nine points) came out blazing in the first quarter as the Mavericks built that early 13 point lead, but Tatum countered with 13 first quarter points as Boston trimmed the margin to 31-30 by the end of the opening stanza. The second quarter was a 20-20 tie, but Boston dominated the third quarter 35-19 while shooting 13-20 (.650) from the field, including 5-11 (.455) from three point range. The three point shooting catches the eyes of casual fans and "stat gurus," but the real story is Boston's suffocating defense that limited Dallas to 8-21 (.381) field goal shooting and that has not yet given up 100 points to the Mavericks in a game.
Just when the Celtics seemed poised to blow out the Mavericks, the Celtics lapsed into poor fourth quarter shooting (7-18, .389) and sloppy ballhandling (five turnovers) as the Mavericks wiped out what had been a 21 point deficit to trail by just one point (93-92) after Irving nailed a jumper at the 3:37 mark. The Celtics closed the game with a 13-7 run, limiting Irving to just two points in that critical stretch.
The story of this game--and this series thus far--is Boston's great defense, but there are media members who are predictably mesmerized by Irving's flashy play. J.J. Redick--who repeatedly slanders the great players of the past while shamelessly acting like Irving's biggest fan--described Irving as a "wizard" and as an "ethical scorer" who does not flop and flail. However, Redick neglected to mention that two major components of Irving's "wizardry" are palming and traveling. Irving's space-creating moves would be much more impressive if he could accomplish them within basketball's traditional rules, because the game he plays now would result in more turnovers than field goals made if Irving played in previous eras when the rules were correctly enforced.
After the game, ESPN's Brian Windhorst declared that Doncic's performance was "unacceptable" and that Dallas can never win a title until Doncic vastly improves his defense and stops complaining so much to the referees. Windhorst is correct that Doncic has reverted to being a defensive liability after playing acceptable defense in earlier playoff series, and Windhorst is also correct that Doncic's whining is not helpful--but Windhorst failed to mention that Irving's plus/minus number in game three was -3, while Doncic's plus/minus number in game three was a team-best +9. Somehow, despite Doncic's "unacceptable" performance the Mavericks won Doncic's 38 minutes by nine points and lost the 10 non-Doncic minutes by 16 points. Further, Windhorst also neglected to note that Irving scored just 28 points on 13-37 (.351) field goal shooting as Dallas
fell into an 0-2 hole versus Boston with eight assists, five turnovers, and a
-22 plus/minus number. Irving shot 0-8 from three point range and 2-2
from the free throw line in the first two games of this series, meaning that he was not successful from either
long range or by drawing fouls.
If Irving were as great as his fans suggest, then Doncic fouling out of game three should not have been fatal. In game four of the 2000 NBA Finals, Kobe Bryant took over after Shaquille O'Neal fouled out, leading the Lakers to a 120-118 overtime win and a commanding 3-1 series lead en route to a 4-2 series win.
Windhorst's Doncic-bashing combined with white glove treatment of Irving only makes sense when you realize that LeBron James loves Kyrie Irving, as recent quotes from James show. Windhorst's media career is founded on following James around and presenting whatever narratives best suit James. Criticizing Irving would not sit well with James, so Windhorst knows the assignment. "Windy" is too busy blowing hot air to fairly assess Irving's play, let alone bother to mention Irving's unrepentant antisemitism and Irving's profiting from Chinese human rights abuses, two storylines that are very relevant not only in the big picture but in this series because Irving literally wears his passions on his head, around his neck, and on his feet; Irving openly advertises how he thinks and feels, but no one who is on James' payroll is going to ask questions that punch holes in the popular Irving redemption narrative.
In my series preview, I picked Boston to beat Dallas because the Tatum-Brown duo is superior to the Doncic-Irving duo, and because Boston has the league's best, most versatile starting lineup. Doncic is a great player, and Irving has flashes of greatness, but Tatum and Brown are bigger and more athletic while also being much more committed to playing elite defense. Regardless of what the talking heads say--and fail to say--the reality is that Tatum and Brown are getting the job done at both ends of the court, while Doncic and Irving have to battle to get off quality shots before being hunted on defense.
Even without Porzingis, the Celtics do not look like a team that will make history by blowing a 3-0 NBA Finals lead--and the Mavericks do not look like a team capable of beating the Celtics four straight times.
Labels: Boston Celtics, Dallas Mavericks, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis, Kyrie Irving, Luka Doncic
posted by David Friedman @ 2:24 AM
Balanced Celtics Overcome Doncic's Triple Double to Take 2-0 Lead
Luka Doncic's seventh triple double of the 2024 NBA playoffs was not enough to prevent the Boston Celtics from beating his Dallas Mavericks 105-98 to take a 2-0 NBA Finals lead before the series shifts to Dallas for games three and four. It is a bad sign for the Mavericks that the Celtics won despite narrowly losing the rebounding battle (43-41) and shooting just 10-39 (.256) from three point range; this was the Celtics' "B" game at best, and they still nearly won by double digits. In game one,
the Celtics were at their best while building the largest first quarter
lead (37-20) in NBA Finals history before cruising to a 107-89 win, but in game two the Celtics demonstrated that they are so superior to the Mavericks in terms of overall size and in terms of having multiple players who are elite at both ends of the court that they have sufficient margin for error to win without being at their best.
Boston's Jrue Holiday was the best all-around guard--and perhaps the
best all-around player--in game two with a team-high 26 points on 11-14
field goal shooting, a game-high 11 rebounds, three assists, and no
turnovers in 41 minutes. Milwaukee's trade of Jrue Holiday for Damian Lillard--which resulted in Boston acquiring Holiday from Portland--turned out to be disastrous for the Bucks and a blessing for the Celtics. Holiday has 38 points and no turnovers so far in this series, the second most points with no turnovers in the first two games of the NBA Finals since the NBA began tracking individual turnovers in the 1977-78 season, trailing only Michael Jordan (70 points and no turnovers in the first two games of the 1998 NBA Finals, also known as the Chicago Bulls' "Last Dance.").
Jaylen Brown had another strong game, contributing 21 points, seven assists, and four rebounds, with the only blemish being his team-high six turnovers. "Stat gurus" who worship "advanced basketball statistics" may focus on Jayson Tatum's 6-22 field goal shooting, but Tatum had a game-high 12 assists plus nine rebounds; his defense, rebounding, and playmaking were crucial for Boston, and his 18 points on inefficient shooting were a bonus. Numbers matter, but what matters more is that Tatum impacts the game at both ends of the court, and that his talent distorts Dallas' defense, creating open high percentage shots for his teammates (even on plays for which Tatum did not earn assists). Derrick White added 18 points and five rebounds. Game one hero Kristaps Porzingis had 12 points, four rebounds, and two blocked shots in 23 minutes before sitting out the final 4:40 of the game after tweaking his lower left leg. Porzingis missed 10 straight playoff games with a right calf strain, so his health status is a cause for concern for Boston even though he insisted right after the game that he will play in game three no matter what.
Doncic led the Mavericks in scoring (32 points), rebounding (11 rebounds) and assists (11), but he had a game-high eight turnovers and his 12-21 field goal shooting is a testament to his immense talent, because he had to work very hard for every shot that he made. The Celtics defended Doncic one on one for the most part, with Brown and Tatum shouldering the bulk of the load and each doing an excellent job even though Doncic posted gaudy boxscore numbers. P.J. Washington had a solid game (17 points, seven rebounds), but Kyrie Irving again fell well short of expectations, finishing with 16 points on 7-18 field goal shooting. He added six assists but he still has not made a three point field goal in this series, and his 2-2 free throw shooting marked his first free throw attempts in two games versus Boston's elite defense; the Irving redemption narrative being forced down our throats by many media members is on hold for at least one more game--but even if Irving plays well in game three his unrepentant antisemitism and his complicity with China's slave labor policies/widespread human rights abuses should not be forgiven or forgotten; those things are much more important than how well he shoots or how his team performs.
It is fair to say that we need a recount on the assertion by TNT's Stan Van Gundy that Doncic and Irving are the best offensive backcourt of all-time; so far in this series, they have been the best offensive backcourt for one quarter out of eight: in the first quarter of game two, Doncic (13 points on 5-7 field goal shooting) and Irving (eight points on 4-5 field goal shooting) staked the Mavericks to a 28-25 lead before combining to score 27 points on 10-27 field goal shooting the rest of the way.
The biggest threat to the Celtics' championship hopes is their propensity for squandering too many offensive possessions with low percentage three pointers early in the shot clock; such shots are not conducive for team success in general, and they are particularly senseless in this series when the Celtics enjoy such pronounced matchup advantages every time Brown, Holiday, or Tatum attack the hoop off of the dribble. The Mavericks are just not able to consistently stay in front of Brown, Holiday, or Tatum, which results in either high percentage close range field goal attempts or else high percentage drive and kick three pointers (which are much better shots than three pointers jacked up early in the shot clock without first challenging the Mavericks in the paint).
Dallas fans may say that the Celtics merely did what they were supposed to do at home and that the Mavericks can get back in this series by holding serve at home, but the reality is that teams that have taken a 2-0 NBA Finals lead won the series 31 out of 36 times--and the five exceptions to that historical rule featured all-time greats Bill Russell (1969 Celtics), Bill Walton (1977 Trail Blazers), Dwyane Wade (2006 Heat), LeBron James (2016 Cavaliers), and Giannis Antetokounmpo (2021 Milwaukee Bucks). If the Mavericks will four of the next five games, it will be because Doncic has one of the greatest Finals performances of all-time and because the Celtics drifted away from high percentage paint shots to low percentage three point shots.
Labels: Boston Celtics, Dallas Mavericks, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, Kyrie Irving, Luka Doncic
posted by David Friedman @ 3:03 AM
Celtics Take Big Early Lead, Rout Mavericks in Game One of the NBA Finals
The Boston Celtics did not accidentally post a 64-18 regular season record, nor did they just stumble to a 12-2 record in the Eastern Conference playoffs; they are big, deep, and versatile--and with Kristaps Porzingis back in the fold they are now at full strength. Prior to game one of the NBA Finals, it was fashionable in some quarters to pick the Dallas Mavericks based on the notion that the Mavericks navigated a tougher postseason journey thus far--but in game one the Celtics asserted their dominance early, and they dominated most of the game en route to a 107-89 win. It is also fashionable to call game one a "feel out" game, but the reality is that the winner of game one of the NBA Finals has captured the championship 70% of the time.
Six Celtics scored in double figures, led by Jaylen Brown's 22 points on 7-12 field goal shooting. Brown also had six rebounds, three steals, three blocked shots, and two assists. Porzingis had a sensational return to action after missing the last 10 games due to a calf injury, scoring 20 points on 8-13 field goal shooting in 21 minutes off of the bench. He added six rebounds and three blocked shots. Jayson Tatum had a quiet offensive game by his lofty standards (16 points on 6-16 field goal shooting, game-high six turnovers), but he posted game-high totals in rebounds (11) and assists (five). Derrick White (15 points, five assists) and Jrue Holiday (12 points, eight rebounds, five assists, game-best +22 plus/minus number) made significant contributions at both ends of the court.
Luka Doncic scored a game-high 30 points and grabbed a team-high 10 rebounds, but the Celtics can live with Doncic shooting 12-26 from the field and posting just one assist versus four turnovers. P.J. Washington was Dallas' second leading scorer with 14 points, and the Celtics can live with that as well--which is not to say that Washington played poorly, but just to note that the Mavericks are not going to win many playoff games when Washington is their second leading scorer with just 14 points. Jaden Hardy had 13 points in 11 minutes, but he scored 11 of those points in the last five minutes of the fourth quarter with the outcome of the game long decided. The Kyrie Irving redemption stories will have to be put on hold for at least one more game, as Irving finished with 12 points on 6-19 field goal shooting along with two assists and three turnovers. Irving did not make a three pointer and he did not attempt a free throw.
Porzingis scored 11 first quarter points on 4-5 field goal shooting while also snaring three rebounds and blocking two shots. The Celtics built the largest first quarter lead in NBA Finals history, 37-20, while shooting 13-23 (.565) from the field and holding the Mavericks to 9-24 (.375) field goal shooting. The Celtics pushed the margin to 29 (58-29) at the 4:11 mark of the second quarter before the Mavericks closed the first half with a 13-5 run to pull within 63-42 at halftime.
Doncic outscored the Celtics 10-9 during the first 7:32 of the third quarter as the Mavericks slashed the deficit to 72-64, but then Tatum and Brown steadied the ship by attacking the hoop on offense. Brown also asserted himself defensively. The first eight minutes or so of the third quarter were the Celtics at their worst, jacking up three pointers and not playing high energy defense, but that proved to be just a brief interlude in the middle of 40 minutes of dominance.
Doncic is so skilled that he can score at least 25-30 points versus any defense, but the Celtics are able to match up one on one with Doncic and Irving, which makes it difficult for the Mavericks to create the lob opportunities and open three pointers that they feasted on when opposing teams trapped Doncic and Irving during their three previous playoff series. The Celtics not only match up well with Doncic and Irving but they also have several perimeter players who can expose Doncic and Irving defensively.
In my series preview I declared, "Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are an even better two-way duo than Doncic
and Irving, and Boston has the NBA's best, most versatile starting
lineup." The Tatum-Brown duo is collectively bigger than the Doncic-Irving duo, and the Tatum-Brown duo significantly impacts the game at both ends of the court while the Doncic-Irving duo primarily impacts the game on offense.
NBA playoff series are decided by matchups, not momentum. Game two starts 0-0, not 107-89, and the outcome of that game will be determined by the extent to which the Celtics exploit their matchup advantages; if they attack the hoop on offense and defend the paint on defense, they will beat the Mavericks--but if they jack up three pointers early in the shot clock and play with low energy defensively then they will give the Mavericks a chance to steal homecourt advantage. The Celtics took a 2-1 advantage in the 2022 NBA Finals only to lose game four to the Golden State Warriors and then fall in six games. The Celtics enjoyed similar matchup advantages versus the Warriors that they enjoy now versus the Mavericks, but they did not relentlessly exploit those matchup advantages in 2022; it will be interesting to see if they have learned from that painful lesson.
Labels: Boston Celtics, Dallas Mavericks, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis, Kyrie Irving, Luka Doncic
posted by David Friedman @ 11:39 PM
Porzingis, Tatum Lead the Way as Celtics Beat Knicks
Kristaps Porzingis scored 12 fourth quarter points as the Boston Celtics rallied from a six point deficit to defeat the New York Knicks 108-104 in the season opener for both teams. Jayson Tatum led the Celtics with a game-high 34 points and a game-high tying 11 rebounds while shooting 13-22 from the field and dishing for four assists. Porzingis finished with 30 points, eight rebounds, four blocked shots, and a game-high +13 plus/minus number. Derrick White added 12 points, Jaylen Brown had a quiet performance by his standards (11 points, six rebounds, five assists), and Jrue Holiday contributed nine points, four rebounds, and three assists in his debut for Boston.
R.J. Barrett and Immanuel Quickley each scored 24 points for the Knicks, while Jalen Brunson (15 points on 6-21 field goal shooting) and Julius Randle (14 points on 5-22 field goal shooting) struggled to score. Randle had a very good floor game (11 rebounds, seven assists, no turnovers) but he also had a game-worst -13 plus/minus number. A major unanswered question for the Knicks is whether Randle can be a productive and efficient scorer against elite teams; his performance against the Celtics echoes his career playoff averages (17.1 ppg, 9.4 rpg, 3.7 apg, .344 FG%).
The Celtics led 30-18 at the end of the first quarter, paced by Porzingis' 15 points and Tatum's 10 points. The Celtics shot 11-21 (.524) from the field while holding the Knicks to 7-26 (.269) field goal shooting, and it looked like the Knicks did not belong on the same court with the Celtics--but the Knicks settled down in the second quarter and outscored the Celtics 28-21 despite shooting just 10-24 (.417) from the field. The Knicks shot 5-14 from three point range, with Quickley scoring eight points and shooting 2-3 from beyond the arc in just 6:58 of playing time.
The Celtics won the third quarter 31-27 despite the Knicks shooting 5-10 (.500) from three point range, and thus led 82-73 heading into the final stanza. The fourth quarter was high scoring but also a bit of a slog as both teams struggled to make field goals; the Celtics shot 5-14 (.357) from the field while the Knicks shot 10-26 (.385) from the field, but the Celtics still scored 26 points because they shot 14-15 from the free throw line and the Knicks scored 18 of their 31 points from beyond the arc. The Celtics never trailed prior to the 8:56 mark of the fourth quarter, when Josh Hart's three pointer put the Knicks up, 86-84. Neither team led by more than three points until Quentin Grimes' three pointer with 4:10 remaining gave the Knicks a 99-93 lead. Porzingis then scored nine points down the stretch--including a three pointer with 1:29 remaining to put the Celtics up 104-101--to clinch the Boston victory.
Despite the lapses midway through the fourth quarter, overall this was a solid performance by the new-look Celtics, who are integrating offseason acquisitions Porzingis and Holiday into the starting lineup. The Knicks showed once again that they are capable of competing with an elite team, but it remains to be seen how often they can beat elite teams.
Labels: Boston Celtics, Jalen Brunson, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Julius Randle, Kristaps Porzingis, New York Knicks
posted by David Friedman @ 11:55 PM
Evaluating Recent Major NBA Trades
Three teams that recently reached the NBA Finals made major trades as each team attempts to obtain the final piece to the championship puzzle. The Phoenix Suns, who lost 4-2 to the Milwaukee Bucks in the 2021 NBA Finals, acquired Bradley Beal from the Washington Wizards in exchange for Chris Paul, Landry Shamet, and multiple draft picks/draft pick swaps. The Wizards then traded Paul to the Golden State Warriors in exchange for Jordan Poole; the Warriors defeated the Boston Celtics 4-2 in the 2022 NBA Finals, and are tweaking their roster after losing to the L.A. Lakers in the second round of the 2023 playoffs. The Celtics acquired Kristaps Porzingis and two draft picks in a three way trade in which they sent Marcus Smart to the Memphis Grizzlies while the Wizards received Tyus Jones from the Grizzlies and Danilo Gallinari, Mike Muscala, and one draft pick from the Celtics.
Draft picks can be a very important component of an NBA trade, but it is impossible to know now the impact that those draft picks will have, so this article will focus on the active players involved in each of the above transactions. It should also be emphasized that draft picks are only as good as the executives deciding who to choose, and the coaches determining how to best develop the talents of each player on a team's roster.
The Suns are going all-in with a top heavy roster featuring Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Bradley Beal, and Deandre Ayton. The Suns do not have much depth or size. Durant will be 35 when the 2023-24 season begins, Booker will be 27, Beal will be 30, and Ayton will be 25. Durant is past his prime; he can still be effective, but he has already had one serious injury (Achilles, 2019) and he has not played more than 55 games in a season since suffering that injury. Booker is just entering his prime, but he has not played more than 70 games in a season since 2016-17. Beal averaged 23.2 ppg in each of the last two seasons after posting back to back 30 ppg seasons, and he has played 60 games or less in each of the last four seasons. Ayton is a talented player who should be just entering his prime, but his game has not developed much since his rookie season: he averaged 16.3 ppg and 10.3 rpg in 2018-19 as a rookie, and he averaged 18.0 ppg and 10.0 rpg last season. He has played more than 70 games just once in five NBA seasons.
In short, the Suns are relying heavily on players who have not stayed healthy in recent seasons. Two of those players (Durant and Beal) are past their primes, one of them is in his prime but may be as good as he is going to get (Booker), and the fourth player is a bit of an enigma whose apparent disenchantment with the Phoenix organization is matched by the Phoenix organization's apparent disenchantment with him. When healthy, the Suns should be able to score prolifically and efficiently, but they will have trouble defensively and they will almost certainly be worn down by the time the playoffs begin. Chris Paul is older, more injury-prone, and less effective at this stage of his career than Beal, so the trade is a short term upgrade for the Suns but not nearly enough to put the Suns over the top.
The Warriors have clearly abandoned their two timeline strategy of keeping their veteran championship core (Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green) while also developing young players. The veteran championship core is still intact, but Poole--who received a huge contract from the Warriors a year ago with the expectation that he would be the centerpiece of the youth movement--is out of the picture in exchange for Paul, whose body is breaking down (he has not played more than 70 games in a season since 2015-16 and he regularly is injured during the playoffs) and who has presided over more blown 2-0 playoff series leads than any player in NBA history. The pattern throughout Paul's career is that he is the floor general for talented teams that fall apart during the playoffs amid internal dissension; it is puzzling that a player with his resume is often touted as the best leader in the league, because the evidence proves that is simply not the case--unless one believes that playoff failures accompanied by internal dissension are indicators that a team has great leadership.
The Warriors' youth movement failed to impress and failed to deliver during the 2023 playoffs, so it is understandable why the organization chose to go all-in with the veteran championship core plus a veteran like Paul, but it is difficult to picture the Warriors winning another title relying so much on Thompson (who has never returned to his pre-injury form), Green (whose antics are increasingly overshadowing the value he provides), and Paul (whose resume of playoff failure speaks for itself).
The Celtics were forced to pivot in a different direction after the scandal involving Ime Udoka resulted in Joe Mazzulla taking over as coach just before the start of last season. Mazzulla did well as a young rookie coach, but he emphasized offense more than Udoka did, and he had a different rotation of players that he trusted. Smart, the 2022 NBA Defensive Player of the year, started 360 of the 581 regular season games that he played in for the Celtics during his nine years with the team, and he started 73 of 108 playoff games during that tenure. The Celtics reached the Eastern Conference Finals five times (2017-18, 2020, 2022-23) and they played in the NBA Finals once (2022), so Smart was a key contributor to a team that sustained high level playoff success for an extended period. However, his departure will not only open up more minutes for Malcolm Brogdon and Derrick White, but Porzingis will add size, three level scoring, rebounding, and rim protection. There is no doubt that Smart was a productive player for some very successful Boston teams, but Porzingis is younger, bigger, more physically gifted, and more versatile than Smart. Therefore, on paper this trade is a win for the Celtics.
As for the Grizzlies and Wizards, it is not clear why the Grizzlies exchanged Jones for Smart. Jones is younger, and is widely considered to be the best backup point guard in the league. Even though starting point guard Ja Morant will miss at least the first 25 games of next season after being suspended by the NBA, it seems odd to bring in Smart to start a couple dozen games and then take over Jones' backup role. Perhaps the Grizzlies place a high value on Smart's leadership, but it is unlikely that Smart alone can set Morant on a better path or cure the team's overall immaturity.
The Wizards have been irrelevant--at least in terms of being a legitimate championship contender--since the late 1970s when the franchise was known as the Bullets. Getting rid of Beal and Porzingis in exchange for the erratic Poole and a bunch of draft picks signals that the "Wheeze-hards" will once again be gasping for air and grasping at straws. Tanking does not work in general, and in this specific instance there is no reason to trust that the Wizards will use those draft choices wisely or that they will fully develop any talented players that they are fortunate enough to draft.
Injuries, additional trades, and unexpected greatness from future draft picks may change the long term evaluation of the above deals, but for now it is reasonable to suggest that the Celtics improved their team, the Suns went all-in with a top heavy/offense reliant strategy that is not likely to yield a title, and the Warriors are crossing their fingers that Paul and Thompson stay healthy, that Curry does not decline soon, and that Green does not punch out any other teammates (or stomp on opponents). Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are praying that Morant does not mess up again and that Smart will provide veteran leadership, while the Wizards continue to be the Wizards.
Labels: Boston Celtics, Bradley Beal, Chris Paul, Kristaps Porzingis, Marcus Smart, Memphis Grizzlies, Phoenix Suns, Washington Wizards
posted by David Friedman @ 3:02 PM
Madison Square Garden Fans Welcome Luka Doncic and Bid Farewell to Dirk Nowitzki
On Wednesday night, The Dallas Mavericks made their lone regular season visit to Madison Square Garden to face the New York Knicks, which means that--barring an extremely unlikely Knicks-Mavericks NBA Finals--Dirk Nowitzki made his last appearance at the arena often referred to as the Mecca of pro basketball. This was also my first trip to Madison Square Garden. I arrived early to soak up the atmosphere and I very much enjoyed looking at the memorabilia that is displayed on the concourse, including the boxing gloves autographed by Muhammad Ali and Joe Frazier (first picture), a practice-worn Patrick Ewing jersey (second picture) and a poster of John Starks' dunk versus the Chicago Bulls near the end of game two of the 1993 Eastern Conference Finals (third picture).
During the pre-game warmups, I noticed that Dirk Nowitzki can barely move. The 40 year old's gait is very unsteady. It is sad to see an all-time great whose mobility is so limited. However, the other thing that I noticed is that he can still shoot stand-still jumpers; from a pure shooting standpoint, he looks the same as always. Nowitzki is one of just five players who have played 21 seasons (Robert Parish, Kevin Willis, Kevin Garnett and Vince Carter are the others) and he is the only member of that group who spent his entire career with one team. Nowitzki received a standing ovation when he first entered the game.
This was my first opportunity to see 19 year old rookie sensation Luka Doncic in person. While Nowitzki is likely making his final Madison Square Garden appearance, this was Doncic's Madison Square Garden debut. His first shot was an airball but Doncic was not fazed and he had a solid overall game: 16 points on 7-18 field goal shooting (including 2-9 from three point range), eight rebounds and five assists. Doncic is a skillful ball handler who has excellent size, court vision and passing skills. He has a nice shooting motion and he has the ability to score in many different ways from a variety of areas on the court.
TNT's Kenny Smith often notes that the margin between bad teams and good teams can be rather small throughout the course of a game; as he puts it, if a team loses by two possessions each quarter, it is only trailing by four after one quarter and eight at halftime but at that pace the game will result in a 16 point blowout. That was pretty much the story of this game. Dallas led 55-47 at halftime. The Mavericks, 23-27 after this game, are hardly a juggernaut but they are a level above the Knicks, who dropped to a league-worst 10-40 (after losing to Boston on Friday night they are now 10-41).
Doncic hit a three pointer to put Dallas up 72-56 at the 7:17 mark of the third quarter and the Knicks never seriously threatened the rest of the way. The main source of excitement/drama, such that it was, turned out to be the "We want Kanter!" chants from the crowd. The Knicks are in full tank mode and thus have essentially removed Enes Kanter from the lineup lest he spoil their chances to potentially obtain the number one pick in the draft--but with the game safely out of reach, Coach David Fizdale gave in and let Kanter see some action. Kanter seemed genuinely happy and surprised to get to play; he has publicly made it very clear that he does not agree with the tanking plan, nor with being benched in favor of less productive players. After Kanter checked into the game the crowd cheered and he went straight to midcourt, where he knelt down and kissed the Knicks' logo. Kanter finished with five points and two rebounds in nine minutes of action.
The next source of excitement/drama was the "We want Dirk!" chants in the final moments of the fourth quarter. I was not sure if Coach Rick Carlisle would put the future Hall of Famer with the creaky legs back in the game--and I was a little concerned that Nowitzki might pull a muscle or something after cooling down on the bench for so long--but Carlisle gave the fans what they wanted and the fans again gave Nowitzki a rousing ovation. The cheers were even louder after Nowitzki made a three pointer at the 2:42 mark of the fourth quarter to put Dallas up 112-83. I assumed that Carlisle would then take Nowitzki out but Nowitzki stayed in a bit longer and his final points of the night came on a jumper at the 1:38 mark that made the score 114-85. Nowitzki finished with a season-high 14 points on 5-7 field goal shooting in just 12 minutes. He did not have a single rebound, assist, steal or blocked shot; even the mere act of boxing out seemed to be quite a task give his current lack of mobility but it is worth noting that he scored 24.9 ppg in his previous 17 Madison Square Garden appearances, his highest average in any road arena. He was a great player and he seems to be able to accept his limitations and enjoy his limited role during his farewell tour; not every great player would be comfortable going out this way but if he is happy with it then that is nice for him and for his fans who get to see him one last time.
Dallas won 114-90 but the final score was almost an afterthought; the focus was on the past (Nowitzki) and the future (Doncic). Harrison Barnes led Dallas with 19 points but he does not look anything like the franchise player that Mark Cuban thought he was signing; Barnes is a solid player but nothing special and you can go several minutes without even noticing that he is on the court. He does not have the presence or impact of a great player.
Dennis Smith Jr. posted his second career triple double (13 points, 15 rebounds, 10 assists) and he led Dallas with a +23 plus/minus rating. Wesley Matthews chipped in 17 points.
Kevin Knox led the Knicks with 17 points and Trey Burke added 16 points. The Knicks went 1-12 in January after going 2-12 in December. Their only win since December 14 is against the L.A. Lakers (sans LeBron James) on January 4.
I enjoyed soaking in the Garden's historic atmosphere and it was special to see Nowitzki's Garden finale/Doncic's Garden debut but as a basketball purist/historian/analyst I cannot emphasize enough
how bad tanking is for the NBA game, the NBA brand and the NBA product. Under normal circumstances I would not want to watch--let alone comment about--a game played by a tanking team but making a first visit to the Garden is special, as is having the opportunity to bid farewell to Nowitzki while welcoming Doncic.
Postscript: The day after this game, the Knicks and Mavericks did a blockbuster trade that sent Kristaps Porzingis (who has yet to play this season due to injury), Tim Hardaway Jr., Trey Burke and Courtney Lee to Dallas in exchange for DeAndre Jordan, Wesley Matthews and Dennis Smith Jr. The Knicks also acquired two first round picks from the Mavericks.
Publicly, the Knicks stated that they traded Porzingis--who made the 2018 Eastern Conference All-Star team shortly before suffering a season-ending left ACL tear--because Porzingis had informed them that he did not plan to re-sign with the team. The reality is that Porzingis will be a restricted free agent after the 2019-20 season, meaning that if the Knicks had extended a qualifying offer to him then they could have matched any contract offer he received. So, Porzingis was supposed to be the franchise's cornerstone player and now the Knicks have given him up for a past his prime Jordan, spare parts and a couple draft picks.
The obvious goal/hope/fantasy is that the Knicks will be able to use the salary cap space that they have cleared to sign two max contract stars who will instantly turn the team into a contender.
The reality is that the Knicks have been mismanaged for decades and I would be surprised if a superstar player who can play wherever he wants to play decides to cast his lot with a dysfunctional franchise. Due to the salary cap rules that require teams to spend a minimum amount, the Knicks will end up using that extra cap space whether or not they attract a superstar, which means that the most likely scenario is that they will end up overpaying for someone who is not really a superstar.
Maybe Porzingis is damaged goods who will never be the same. Maybe the Knicks have a wink, wink, nudge, nudge agreement to sign a free agent superstar this summer (which would of course violate NBA rules if it could be proven). This may turn out well for the Knicks but that does not mean that--based on what is currently known and the options that the Knicks had--this was the optimal move.
If the Knicks are so dysfunctional that an All-Star who they drafted and groomed to be a franchise player wants out then why would any top player sign with the Knicks?
Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Dirk Nowitzki, Enes Kanter, Kristaps Porzingis, Luka Doncic, New York Knicks
posted by David Friedman @ 10:39 PM
