Knicks Make Magic Disappear and Spurs Silence Thunder in NBA Cup Semifinals
The New York Knicks defeated the Orlando Magic 132-120 to reach the NBA Cup Championship Game, which will be played next Tuesday night in Las Vegas. Jalen Brunson authored yet another virtuoso performance, scoring a game-high 40 points on 16-27 field goal shooting while also dishing for a game-high eight assists and committing just two turnovers in 39 minutes. Brunson has now scored at least 30 points in 88 regular season games as a Knick, surpassing Hall of Fame guard Richie Guerin for third place in franchise history. Carmelo Anthony's second place total (108) is well within reach, but it will take Brunson a while to top Patrick Ewing (203). Karl-Anthony Towns (29 points on 9-11 field goal shooting, eight rebounds) and OG Anunoby (24 points, six rebounds, four assists, three steals) also had strong games as all five New York starters scored in double figures. Former New York coach Tom Thibodeau was criticized for allegedly playing his starters for too many minutes, but in this game--with NBA Cup bonus money on the line--current New York coach Mike Brown played four of New York's five starters at least 37 minutes, while the banged up Josh Hart battled through 31 minutes. Mitchell Robinson only scored five points, but he was a force in the
paint, compiling a game-high nine rebounds and a game-high four blocked
shots in just 17 minutes off of the bench.
Jalen Suggs led the Magic with 26 points on 10-16 field goal shooting, but he had 25 of those points in the first half before injuring his left hip in the third quarter. He limped through nine scoreless third quarter minutes and scored just one point in a cameo appearance in the fourth quarter before the Magic shut him down. Suggs, who had a team-high +8 plus/minus number, will be reevaluated after the Magic return to Orlando from Las Vegas. Paolo Banchero added 25 points and eight rebounds, but he shot 0-7 from three point range and he committed a game-high five turnovers; that is a lot of empty possessions created by the team's best player. Banchero is a strong and talented player who should must improve his decision making in general and his shot selection in particular. Desmond Bane scored a game-high 37 points when Orlando beat Miami 117-108 in an NBA Cup quarterfinal game, but he had just 18 points on 7-17 field goal shooting versus the Knicks.
This game was physical and well-contested but also very fast-paced, which resulted in the high scoring totals for both teams. Each team had 41 rebounds, but the Knicks shot .607 (51-84) from the field while holding the Magic to .464 (45-97) field goal shooting. The Magic led by as much as six in the first quarter, but the Knicks rallied to take a 71-64 halftime edge. The third quarter featured two lead changes and four ties, but the Knicks did not trail in the fourth quarter.
The Magic have a faster paced, more efficient offense than they did last
season, but the goal is not to lose while scoring 120 points; the Magic
pride themselves on their defense, so this performance is very
disappointing, and below their usual standard. Perhaps the Magic would
have fared better if the injured Franz Wagner had been able to play
and if Suggs had not gotten injured during the game, but defense is
about effort and execution, not just personnel. If the Magic are at full strength during the playoffs, a New York-Orlando playoff series could be very competitive and interesting.
In the second game of Amazon Prime's NBA Cup semifinals doubleheader, the San Antonio Spurs rallied from a 16 point second quarter deficit to stun the Oklahoma City Thunder 111-109, ending the Thunder's 16 game winning streak and handing the 2025 NBA champions just their second loss this season. Victor Wembanyama dominated the game despite a minutes restriction that limited him to 21 minutes off of the bench. He scored 22 points on 6-11 field goal shooting and 9-12 free throw shooting while grabbing a game-high tying nine rebounds, notching a game-high two blocked shots, and posting a gaudy team-high +21 plus/minus number. This was his first game back after missing the last 12 games because of a left calf injury. The Spurs went 9-3 without Wembanyama, but in this game they looked vastly superior with him on the court compared to when he was not on the court. Devin Vassell scored a team-high 23 points while collecting five rebounds and four assists, while De'Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle scored 22 points each.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a game-high 29 points on 12-23 field goal shooting, but his teammates managed to produce just 80 points on 26-69 (.377) field goal shooting as the Thunder's vaunted strength in numbers vanished. The Spurs forced Gilgeous-Alexander to play in a crowd, and they denied him access to his favorite midrange areas. He responded by willingly making the right passes, but his teammates did not make enough shots. Jalen Williams (17 points on 5-16 field goal shooting) and Chet Holmgren (17 points on 3-8 field goal shooting) both had subpar games. Isaiah Hartenstein was solid (10 points on 5-9 field goal shooting, game-high tying nine rebounds), but the Thunder player who performed the best other than Gilgeous-Alexander was Alex Caruso, who had 11 points, eight rebounds, three assists, three steals, and no turnovers in 24 minutes off of the bench. Caruso had a game-high +22 plus/minus number, including +6 in a tightly contested fourth quarter.
The Spurs won the rebounding battle 52-51, and they only lost points in the paint 44-40. In a game where the outcome hung in the balance until the final buzzer sounded, the best thing that the Spurs did was remain composed through both the highs and the lows; the Thunder attack their opponents in aggressive waves of relentless pressure defense leading to high percentage shots, but the Spurs weathered each storm after a bumpy first quarter. The Thunder do not have many weaknesses or vulnerabilities, but the best
recipe to beat them involves (1) controlling the pace, (2) limiting
turnovers, and (3) attacking the paint. Controlling the pace does not necessarily mean only playing fast or only playing slow, but rather not letting the Thunder speed you up to force turnovers and bad shots; the Spurs did a great job of pushing the ball when they had an advantage in numbers and running a half court offense when they did not have an advantage in numbers.
When the Thunder led 14-4 at the 8:18 mark of the first quarter, it seemed like this would be yet another double digit Thunder win with Gilgeous-Alexander watching the fourth quarter relaxing on the bench. The Spurs stabilized themselves for the rest of the first quarter, and even though they did not cut into the margin they also did not plummet into a 20 point deficit. The Thunder led 31-20 heading into the second quarter. Wembanyama did not play at all in the first quarter, and it soon became evident just how significant his absence was; he had five points and five rebounds in seven minutes in the second quarter, but his +20 plus/minus number just hinted at his impact at both ends of the court. The Spurs trimmed the lead to 33-29 at the 8:35 mark with Wembanyama in the game, but after he took a break the Thunder surged to a 47-31 lead with 3:52 left before Wembanyama returned. The Spurs closed the second quarter with a 15-2 run with Wembanyama seemingly everywhere at once at both ends of the court as he altered shots on defense and forced the Thunder to account for his presence on offense.
The Spurs took their first lead of the game, 57-56, on a Fox fast break drive at the 8:45 mark of the third quarter. Neither team led by more than six points the rest of the way. One might expect that a championship team would have the advantage in a nip and tuck game versus a young and inexperienced team, but that was not the case in this game. Wembanyama's jump shot with 2:32 remaining in the fourth quarter put the Spurs up 102-101, and they never trailed again; down the stretch, the Spurs played excellent defense and they made enough free throws to hold off the Thunder.
In my December
3 NBA Cup article, I correctly picked each of the four quarterfinal
game winners before picking Orlando and Oklahoma City as semifinal game
winners; since I was wrong about both semifinal game winners it is time for me to make a new prediction about the NBA Cup Championship Game.
It does not make much sense to call Knicks versus Spurs a rematch of the 1999 NBA Finals because many of the participants in the upcoming 2025 NBA Cup Championship Game were not even born yet in 1999. More relevant is that the Knicks reached the 2025 Eastern Conference Finals while the Spurs missed the playoffs; the Knicks began this season with championship aspirations while the Spurs entered this season intent on proving that they can be the first San Antonio team to qualify for postseason play since 2019. Both teams are 18-7 now, and both teams are on the upswing, with the Knicks 9-1 in their last 10 games and the Spurs 7-3 in their last 10 games (nine of which they played without Wembanyama).
The matchups are fascinating. Will the Knicks try to muscle Wembanyama, or will they try to harass him by swarming him with pesky small defenders? How will the Spurs try to exploit Brunson's subpar defense, and how will the Knicks try to hide Brunson on that side of the court? The coaches who will make those decisions are Mitch Johnson, who is in his first full season at the helm in San Antonio, and Mike Brown, who led the Cleveland Cavaliers to the 2007 NBA Finals and has won four NBA titles as an assistant coach, including one with the Spurs (2003) and three with the Golden State Warriors (2017-18, 2022). Johnson's father John was the starting small forward for Seattle's 1979 NBA championship team. Brown has the edge on paper by virtue of his long resume full of NBA championships and NBA Finals appearances, but Johnson has shown a lot of promise in his short time on the job while presiding over the development of not only Wembanyama but also other young players on the roster.
If this were a seven game series, I would pick the Knicks, much like I would have picked them over the Magic in a series but thought that the Magic would prevail in a one game winner take all scenario (never mind that I ended up being wrong about that!). Wembanyama has not proven that he can stay healthy for a whole season, let alone dominate during an extended playoff run--but he has shown that in just 21 minutes he can be a force even against the dominant Oklahoma City Thunder, so I will pick the Spurs to win a game that I expect (and hope) will be as closely contested and well-played as their victory over the Thunder.
Labels: Jalen Brunson, Jalen Suggs, Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder, Orlando Magic, San Antonio Spurs, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Victor Wembanyama
posted by David Friedman @ 2:49 AM
Milwaukee and Oklahoma City Advance to the NBA Cup Semifinals
The Milwaukee Bucks beat the Orlando Magic 114-109 in the first of four NBA Cup quarterfinal games. Giannis Antetokounmpo scored a game-high 37 points on 15-24 field goal shooting, and he had a game-high four blocked shots. Damian Lillard added 28 points--including 15 in the fourth quarter--and a game-high nine assists. Antetokounmpo (game-high six turnovers) and Lillard (four turnovers) had 10 of the Bucks' 16 turnovers. Bobby Portis contributed 22 points and a team-high 10 rebounds off of the bench, while former All-Star Khris Middleton--who is on a minutes restriction as he recovers from offseason surgeries on both of his ankles--had eight assists, four rebounds, and three steals in 20 scoreless minutes.
The Magic battled throughout the game--enjoying an 11 point lead early in the second quarter, and leading 107-106 with just 40.6 seconds remaining in the game--despite being without the services of Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, their two best players who are both sidelined with oblique injuries. Jalen Suggs scored a career-high 32 points and had a game-high four steals, Anthony Black (17 points) and Moritz Wagner (13 points on 6-6 field goal shooting) played well off of the bench, and Goga Bitadze made his presence felt with 12 points, a game-high 14 rebounds, and four assists.
On paper, this game should have been a blowout, as the Bucks feature two members of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team--Antetokounmpo and Lillard--while the Magic sans Banchero do not have a single current or former All-Star, but the Magic play hard, they play unselfishly, and they play tough defense. The Bucks committed seven turnovers in the first quarter, tying their season-high for first quarter turnovers, and enabling the Magic to sprint to a 10 point first quarter lead before settling for a 33-25 advantage at the end of the first quarter.
The Bucks eventually outlasted the outmatched Magic, but the Bucks' shaky perimeter defense makes it difficult to picture them enjoying a deep playoff run; their guards struggle to stay in front of the opposing team's guards, which forces their big men to help and thus leave the basket unattended. They could really use a tough, defensive-minded guard like Boston's Jrue Holiday--but they traded Holiday away for Damian Lillard, who is invisible defensively.
The Bucks will be a solid playoff team as long as they have a healthy Antetokounmpo doing everything, but until they recapture the defensive identity that they used to have they will not be a title contender. The scrappy young Magic are a team on the rise--not ready to win a title this season, but building good habits and gaining valuable experience.
In the second game of TNT's doubleheader (and the second NBA Cup quarterfinal game), the Oklahoma City Thunder defeated the Dallas Mavericks, 118-104. The Mavericks outrebounded the Thunder by nearly 5 rpg en route to a 4-2 series win in the 2024 playoffs, but in this game the Thunder outrebounded the Mavericks 52-44 as offseason acquisition Isaiah Hartenstein ripped down a game-high 13 rebounds. The silky smooth Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a game-high 39 points on 15-23 field goal shooting while also compiling eight rebounds, five assists, and three steals. All five Thunder starters scored in double figures, and the Thunder bench added 29 points. Klay Thompson and Naji Marshall led the Mavericks with 19 points each, but Dallas' top two players both had off nights: Luka Doncic finished with 16 points on 5-15 field goal shooting (though he did have 11 rebounds and five assists), and Kyrie Irving had 17 points on 7-14 field goal shooting. Dereck Lively II tied Hartenstein for game-high rebounding honors, but he scored just four points as the Thunder shut down Dallas' lob game at the rim without giving up anything on the perimeter. The Thunder beat the reigning Western Conference champions despite being without the services of the injured Chet Holmgren. After the game, Gilgeous-Alexander said that it was a point of emphasis to "be the aggressor" versus a team that pushed them around in previous matchups.
During the halftime show of the Oklahoma City-Dallas game, Kenny Smith observed that the Thunder make a conscious effort to "touch the paint" even on possessions that end in three point attempts, and he said that the way that the Thunder attack the paint separates them from teams that just jack up three pointers without putting pressure on the defense.
On Wednesday night, the New York Knicks will host the Atlanta Hawks and the Houston Rockets will host the Golden State Warriors in the last two NBA Cup quarterfinal games, with the winners facing Milwaukee and Oklahoma City respectively as the NBA Cup concludes in Las Vegas with semifinal games on Saturday and the championship game next Tuesday.
The NBA's media partners are contractually obligated to hype up the NBA Cup, but the NBA's TV ratings are down this season and it is not difficult to figure out why: the product just is not as good as it used to be for a variety of reasons, including load management, tanking, and most teams playing the same analytics-driven, cookie-cutter offense focused on jacking up as many corner three pointers as possible. I am a basketball lifer, and I don't find this brand of basketball as captivating or entertaining as basketball used to be, so I can only imagine how casual fans must feel. The NBA Cup will not solve the NBA's problems, and in some ways I would argue that it makes things worse. Last year when the NBA Cup debuted, I pointed out two flaws in the format:
There are at least two drawbacks with the current NBA Cup format: (1)
the use of point differential as the first tiebreaker in Group Play
resulted in farcical situations during which teams ran up the score, and
(2) there will be quirky scheduling this week for the teams that did
not qualify for knockout round play. Regarding the first drawback, I am
all for players and teams playing hard from opening tip to final buzzer,
but intentionally running up the score in the waning moments of a
blowout looks silly and renders those individual and team statistics
meaningless: how many more points would the great teams and players of
the past have scored if teams ran up the score instead of putting in the
reserves? Regarding the second drawback, if a fan wants to see a
particular visiting player or team how is he supposed to plan in advance
for a week in which the schedule is dotted with "TBD"?
The NBA does not care about these issues because the league is desperate to come up with any gimmick to induce the players to (1) stop sitting out games and (2) play hard when they are not sitting out games. Personal pride and competitive spirit are rare commodities now, so the NBA is paying $100,000 to each player on a quarterfinal winning team, with escalating prizes for the teams that advance further in the tournament. Antetokounmpo is one of the few players who still plays hard, but it was not a good look (or sound) when--in response to a question about that $100,000 payment--he laughed and said, "The rich get richer." Many Americans are struggling to put food on the table, with the average annual personal income being just $63,214, so bragging about making more in less than three hours than most people make in a year is not funny or endearing. Not to get overly political, but it sure seems like many athletes and entertainers are Democrats who complain about how much money wealthy people make and how little they pay in taxes, but I have yet to hear of an athlete or an entertainer offering to live on $63,214 per year (or even a "mere" $630,000 per year), so perhaps they should complain less about the economic system or the taxation system that benefits them so much; if they aren't giving up their own money that they receive from guaranteed contracts that don't even require them to show up to work every day then they are in no position to speak about how people who actually have to show up to work to get paid should spend their money or be taxed.
It is unfortunate that the NBA has to stoop to providing extra cash to NBA players who are already earning generational wealth in the hope that players will play hard. It has been reported that the NBA will change the 2025 All-Star Game format to a tournament featuring three eight-player All-Star teams plus the winning team from the Rising Stars Challenge playing round robin games with a 40 point target score. Presumably, the NBA will throw still more cash at the NBA All-Stars and beg the players to at least pretend to give effort. The NBA All-Star Game descended to a new low last February as the teams combined to lauch 168 three point shots while attempting just five free throws as the
Eastern Conference All-Stars routed the Western Conference All-Stars,
211-186.
Throwing more cash at players who act entitled and spoiled will not make things better. Radical measures are needed: if All-Stars refuse to play hard, then cancel the All-Star Game and render null and void any contract bonuses related to being selected as an All-Star; if players think that the season is too long to play all 82 games, then slash the schedule to 60 games, and reduce player salaries proportionately to make up for the lost TV revenue. We all know that Commissioner Adam Silver--who prides himself on getting along with the players--would never do such things, which is why we all also know that the NBA that we love is going to continue to decline until the owners suffer financial losses as a result of selling a second-rate product.
Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Damian Lillard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jalen Suggs, Luka Doncic, Milwaukee Bucks, NBA Cup, Oklahama City Thunder, Orlando Magic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
posted by David Friedman @ 1:11 AM
Cavs “Let Em Know,” Make Magic Disappear in Hard Fought Game Seven
The Cleveland Cavaliers' 2024 slogan is "Let Em Know," and on Sunday afternoon the Cavaliers let everyone know that they could win a playoff series without LeBron James for the first time since the early 1990s when the team's franchise players were Mark Price and Brad Daugherty. The Orlando Magic built a 49-31 lead late in the first half in Cleveland before the Cavaliers pulled off the largest NBA game seven comeback since at least 1998 (which is as far back as such records go) and emerged with a 106-94 victory to earn the right to face the Boston Celtics in the second round.
The NBA should not need gimmicks like the NBA Cup or the Play-In Tournament
to convince players and teams that it is important to play hard; it
should suffice to review what happened in this series: the home team won
all seven games, including an epic comeback in the series clincher--and
the Cavaliers enjoyed homecourt advantage because they finished one
game ahead of the Magic in the 82 game regular season marathon. Of
course, the Cavaliers could have finished two games ahead of the Magic
if the Cavaliers had not tanked the fourth quarter of their final
regular season game, and it could be argued that karma should have
dictated that the Cavaliers lose to their hand-picked first round
opponent--but the larger point is that the Cavaliers took the regular
season seriously overall, and earned homecourt advantage for a first
round series that could have easily gone the other way had game seven
been played in Orlando.
Donovan Mitchell scored a game-high 39 points, dished for a team-high five assists, and committed just one turnover in 45 minutes. Mitchell attacked the hoop relentlessly and he made 15 of his hard-earned 17 free throw attempts to offset his 11-27 field goal shooting. Add in his 50 point performance in game six, and Mitchell posted the second highest combined game six/game seven scoring total in NBA playoff history, falling just one point short of Allen Iverson's record.
Caris LeVert contributed 15 points off of the bench on 5-9 field goal shooting while starters Max Strus (13 points), Darius Garland (12 points), and Evan Mobley (11 points) also scored in double figures. Strus nailed three treys, Garland led Cleveland with 10 fourth quarter points, and Mobley had a game-high 16 rebounds while also anchoring Cleveland's paint defense with a game-high five blocked shots (one more than Orlando's entire team had).
Paolo Banchero had a monster game for the Magic, finishing with 38 points plus a game-high tying 16 rebounds, but he shot just 10-28 from the field and seemed to wear down in the second half, producing 14 points and eight rebounds while shooting 4-15 from the field. Wendell Carter Jr. had a solid game (13 points, seven rebounds), but Jalen Suggs (10 points on 2-13 field goal shooting) and Franz Wagner (six points on 1-15 field goal shooting, the worst FG% in game seven history) struggled mightily.
Cleveland has a rich sports history that includes four
AAFC championships (1946-49), four NFL championships (1950, 1954-55,
1964), two World Series titles (1920, 1948), and one NBA championship (2016)--but
that history also includes some fiascos that are so infamous and
painful that they have become depressing catchword phrases that any
Cleveland sports fan knows by heart: "Red Right 88," "The Drive," "The Fumble," "The Shot." For most of the first half, this game seven seemed destined to be added to the above litany of sports meltdowns and disasters as the Magic looked unbeatable until the Cavaliers rallied just before halftime to cut the margin to a manageable 10 points (53-43). This game was a tale of two halves, because the Cavaliers outscored the Magic 63-41 in the second half while outshooting Orlando from the field, .542-.256. Mitchell reflected that tale in microcosm, scoring 15 first half points on 3-13 field goal shooting before pouring in 24 second half points on 8-14 field goal shooting.
Mitchell's impact went beyond his numbers. He demonstrated patient and productive leadership as he encouraged his teammates--most notably Garland--to keep shooting. After the game, Mitchell said that his message to Garland was simple: I don't give a (bleep) what happened before or if the crowd is booing--just trust the work you put in and shoot your shots. Mitchell hastened to add that at other times in the season Garland pumped him up. Mitchell did not show up his coach, throw his teammates under the bus, or spend more time whining to the referees than playing the game.
There is understandable skepticism that a team featuring two small guards like Mitchell and Garland can win a championship--and as someone who has consistently insisted that size matters in the NBA I share that skepticism--but I would caution those who insist that the Cavaliers should get rid of either Mitchell or Garland to consider that such a move is more likely to be a step backward than a step forward. With the assets that the Cavaliers would be willing and able to package, they are unlikely to receive more value in return than what they would be sending out. Mitchell is not an all-time great player like Nikola Jokic--but the few all-time great players who are playing now are not available. Mitchell has repeatedly proven that he can be highly productive on the sport's biggest stage--and even more significant than Mitchell's final game seven numbers is the fact that he did
not quit after his slow start, nor did he wilt under the pressure of the
moment. Several players who have won more honors than Mitchell have an established track record of disappearing
in big games.
The path to winning an NBA title when your best player is a player of Mitchell's caliber is to build a deep and versatile roster that can wear down teams that have more top end talent but less depth. There are not many such championship teams in NBA history, but the 2004 Pistons and the 1979 SuperSonics are two examples. Mitchell is no less talented than 2004 Finals MVP Chauncey Billups or 1979 Finals MVP Dennis Johnson. Billups and Johnson were better than Mitchell as playmakers and defenders, but Mitchell is a much more dynamic scorer. The Cavaliers have a young, solid nucleus of Mitchell, Garland, Mobley, LeVert, Strus, and Jarrett Allen (who missed the final three games versus Orlando due to a rib injury). The continued development of that core combined with shrewd drafting and one or two free agent signings or trades could lift the Cavaliers from barely being in the top four in the East to legitimately fighting for the Eastern Conference title. It is a positive sign that the Cavaliers are already one of the league's best defensive teams, which means that (1) the coaching staff led by J.B. Bickerstaff knows how to effectively teach defensive principles, and (2) the team's young players have bought into the importance of playing good defense.
Unless Mitchell insists that he wants to leave--in which case he will get his way, because that is how the modern NBA works for All-Star players--the Cavaliers should not trade him. Players who score 39 points in elimination games are rare, and their value cannot be matched by acquiring a package of role players and draft picks. The Cavaliers should not part with Garland, either, unless they can get a 6-6 guard who is an elite defender and competent range shooter to pair with Mitchell--but such players are hard to find and not likely to be available on the trade market.
Labels: Cleveland Cavaliers, Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs, Orlando Magic, Paolo Banchero
posted by David Friedman @ 1:37 AM
