Thunder's One-Two Punch Knocks Out Pacers in Game Five
Jalen Williams scored a playoff career-high 40 points, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander added 31 points to lead the Oklahoma City Thunder to a 120-109 win versus the Indiana Pacers in game five of the NBA Finals. The Thunder seized a 3-2 advantage, and put the Pacers behind in a series for the first time in the 2025 playoffs. Williams is the third youngest player with three straight 25 point games in the NBA Finals since the 1976 ABA-NBA merger; the only two younger players to accomplish that feat in that time period are Shaquille O'Neal and Kevin Durant. The 24 year old Williams is also the fifth youngest player to score at least 40 points in an NBA Finals game, trailing only Magic Johnson (20 years old in the 1980 NBA Finals), Rick Barry (three times in 1967 as a 23 year old), Russell Westbrook (23 years old in 2012), and Jerry West (23 years old in 1962).
The Thunder's one-two punch is usually Gilgeous-Alexander followed by Williams, but in this game reversing the order proved to be very effective. Williams shot 14-25 from the field while also contributing six rebounds, four assists, and one steal in 35 minutes. He had just one turnover. Gilgeous-Alexander shot 9-21 from the field, dished for a game-high 10 assists, logged a game-high four blocked shots, and swiped two steals in 38 minutes. Gilgeous-Alexander has produced 12 games this postseason with at least 30 points and at least 10 assists, breaking the record of 11 formerly held by Michael Jordan and LeBron James. Gilgeous-Alexander had three turnovers, which is an acceptable number given his high usage as a scorer/playmaker. Williams and Gilgeous-Alexander attacked the paint, and that enabled them to repeatedly draw fouls: Williams shot 9-12 from the free throw line, while Gilgeous-Alexander connected on 13 of his 14 free throw attempts.
Aaron Wiggins (14 points, five rebounds in 22 minutes off of the bench) and Cason Wallace (11 points, four steals in 17 minutes off of the bench) were the only other Thunder players who scored in double figures, but when the top two players combine for 71 points not much other offensive support is needed. Chet Holmgren scored nine points, grabbed a game-high 11 rebounds, and blocked three shots, so he made a positive impact despite shooting just 4-15 from the field. Lu Dort added nine points, eight rebounds, three assists, and two steals, while Alex Caruso scored just two points on 1-8 field goal shooting but was a defensive menace with four steals and one blocked shot.
Pascal Siakam led the Pacers with 28 points on 9-15 field goal shooting while also snaring six rebounds, dishing for five assists, poaching three steals, and blocking two shots, but he had six of the Pacers' 23 turnovers. T.J. McConnell scored 18 points on 8-14 field goal shooting in 22 minutes off of the bench while also accumulating four rebounds, four assists, and two steals. He had the Pacers' second best plus/minus number (+4), and he had 13 third quarter points as the Pacers outscored the Thunder 34-28 in that stanza to trim the Thunder's 59-45 halftime lead to 87-79. Bennedict Mathurin scored seven points and had a team-high eight rebounds, and he posted the team's best plus/minus number (+6) despite shooting just 2-11 from the field. Tyrese Haliburton, who has repeatedly saved the Pacers with big shots in clutch moments, had a scoreless first half on 0-5 field goal shooting before finishing with four points on 0-6 field goal shooting, seven rebounds, and a team-high six assists in 34 minutes. He was limited by a right calf injury but--as Pacers' Coach Rick Carlisle correctly noted during his postgame remarks--many players are limited by injuries at this stage of the season.
The Thunder scored 32 points off of Indiana's turnovers while conceding just nine points from their 11 turnovers, and those extra possessions enabled the Thunder to prevail despite shooting just 40-94 (.426) from the field while also losing the rebounding battle, 50-45. The Pacers led the Thunder in points in the paint (48-42) and second chance points (21-17), but the combination of the Thunder's relentless defensive pressure with the dynamic scoring/playmaking of Williams and Gilgeous-Alexander decided the outcome.
The Thunder led for the final 44:52 of the game, and built the margin to
18 (56-38) at the 2:29 mark of the second quarter. McConnell's
fantastic third quarter helped the Pacers to chip away, and the Pacers
pulled to within two points (95-93) after Siakam hit a three pointer at
the 8:30 mark of the fourth quarter. The Thunder then went on an 18-4
run to seal the game and, most likely, the series; during that crucial
stretch, Williams scored eight points and Gilgeous-Alexander scored five
points.
Oklahoma City probably would have already won the series if Thunder Coach Mark Daigenault had not blundered by changing his starting lineup prior to game one, inserting Cason Wallace in place of Isaiah Hartenstein; the Thunder lost that game and trailed 2-1 before Daigneault went back to the starting lineup that posted a 45-8 regular season record and a 12-4 record in the playoffs. The Thunder won game four after putting Hartenstein back in the starting lineup and are now 2-0 in this series with the starting lineup that carried them to most of their wins in the regular season and the playoffs. Hartenstein's game five numbers--four points, eight rebounds, four assists--are not gaudy, but the goal is to win games, not to be "analytically correct." With Hartenstein in the starting lineup, all of the Thunder's players are in their natural and accustomed roles, which enabled the Thunder to not only build a 29-17 first quarter lead but to also withstand the inevitable Indiana comeback.
Just at it would be wrong to evaluate the Thunder's starting lineup change based solely on the numbers posted by Hartenstein or Wallace outside of the larger context of the team's overall play, it would also be wrong to assert that Carlisle erred by not giving McConnell more minutes at Haliburton's expense in game five. McConnell is a bench player who performs best against bench players while his minutes are maintained within a certain range. Call it the "Trevor Ariza effect." Carlisle explained after game five that he managed McConnell's late game
minutes based on McConnell being fatigued and making some errors that
seemed to be a result of that fatigue. A "stat guru" might argue that
because McConnell scored 18 points in 22 minutes he would have scored 36
points in 44 minutes, but that is not how NBA basketball works; if
McConnell had played 22 more minutes it is much more likely that his
turnovers and missed field goals would have increased than that his
point total would have doubled.
"Stat gurus" focus too much on per minute and per possession statistics without understanding or acknowledging other factors, and that faulty, limited way of conceptualizing the game leads "stat gurus" to make flawed assertions, such as declaring that Manu Ginobili was just as good as Kobe Bryant, which is demonstrably false for a variety of reasons, including the difference between being a player who logs heavy minutes as the number one option versus being a player who logs limited minutes while often playing against bench players. Understanding that difference is one reason that I correctly predicted that James Harden would not lead a team to the NBA Finals as a number one option even though he was efficient as the third option for the Kevin Durant-Russell Westbrook Thunder team that reached the 2012 NBA Finals.
Talking about "adjustments" and substitution patterns is one way that commentators attempt to sound well-informed even when they lack foundational knowledge about the NBA game. The reality is that the best "adjustment" is playing harder. Coaches usually have good reasons for their substitution patterns, based on their observations of their players in practices and in games. The Hartenstein-Wallace change is an unusual example of a coach outsmarting himself--probably based on some "stat guru" feeding him nonsense about the supposed advantages of using a small lineup against Indiana--and it is fortunate for the Thunder that Daigenault was not too stubborn to reverse course before the Thunder fell into a 3-1 hole.
Labels: Indiana Pacers, Isaiah Hartenstein, Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder, Pascal Siakam, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tyrese Haliburton
posted by David Friedman @ 2:02 PM
Grit and Poise: Thunder Outlast Pacers to Reclaim Homecourt Advantage
The Indiana Pacers led the Oklahoma City Thunder 86-76 with less than a minute remaining in the third quarter of game four of the NBA Finals, but the Thunder outscored the Pacers 35-18 the rest of the way--including 12-1 in the final 3:20--to win 111-104 and reclaim homecourt advantage. The series shifts back to Oklahoma City on Monday night tied 2-2 after the Pacers led 1-0 and 2-1. This was the Thunder's second lowest scoring total in a win in the
2025 playoffs; they lost five of their previous six playoff games when
they scored less than 112 points, but they are 12-1 in the 2025 playoffs
when they score at least 112 points. The Thunder improved to 5-0 following a loss in 2025 playoffs.
The Thunder cruised through most of the 2024-25 regular season and went
12-4 in their first 16 playoff games, but beating the Indiana Pacers in the NBA Finals has been a
tough challenge for the Thunder, who displayed a lot of grit and poise
to come from behind to win on the road versus a team that has thrived in games that are close late in the fourth quarter.
The Thunder prevailed by outscoring the Pacers 50-36 in the paint after being outscored 50-48 in the paint in their game three loss. The Thunder also outrebounded the Pacers 43-33 while holding the Pacers to 34-80 (.425) field goal shooting. We are often told that range shooting and spreading the floor are essential for teams to be successful in today's NBA, but the Thunder won despite shooting just 3-17 (.176) from three point range because size matters in the NBA, and because controlling the paint is a major factor for a championship contender.
The biggest change that Thunder Coach Mark Daigneault made--literally and figuratively--was reinserting Isaiah Hartenstein in the starting lineup after replacing him with Cason Wallace in the first three games of this series. The move back to Hartenstein may not have seemed to help the Thunder when the Pacers jumped out to a 24-15 first quarter lead, but going back to the lineup and player rotation that enabled the Thunder to be a dominant team during the regular season and first three rounds of the playoffs paid dividends as the Thunder wore down the Pacers the rest of the way. Wallace's minutes have decreased from 33 in game one to 23 in game two, 24 in game three, and 19 in game four. Hartenstein's minutes have been fairly consistent--17, 22, 18, 21--but the Thunder won the two games when he played at least 20 minutes and lost the two games when he played less than 20 minutes. Daigneault tried to be clever by changing his starting lineup for the first three games and that move backfired, but he deserves credit for recognizing his mistake before it was too late to salvage this series.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a game-high 35 points on 12-24 field goal shooting and 10-10 free throw shooting, including 15 fourth quarter points. He had no assists, but sometimes the most effective way for a team's best player to impact winning is to accept the burden of scoring even when the defense is tilted against him. Instead of insisting on making the "right" play, Gilgeous-Alexander made winning plays by putting the ball in the basket when the game was up for grabs. He has scored 131 points in this series so far, the third most points scored by a player in the first four NBA Finals games of his career, trailing only Rick Barry (165) and Allen Iverson (141). Jalen Williams often initiated the offense while Gilgeous-Alexander played off of the ball, and Williams finished with 27 points, seven rebounds, and three assists. Alex Caruso contributed 20 points and a game-high tying five steals in 30 minutes off of the bench. Chet Holmgren powered his thin frame to 14 points and a game-high 15 rebounds.
Pascal Siakam led the Pacers with 20 points and a game-high tying five steals while also grabbing eight rebounds, but he shot just 6-15 from the field. Nine Pacers played in this game, and Siakam was one of just three with a positive plus/minus number (+7, best on the Pacers). Tyrese Haliburton scored 18 points and had a game-high seven assists but he also had a game-high five turnovers. Obi Toppin scored 17 points and snared seven rebounds in 29 minutes off of the bench, but he had a game-worst -15 plus/minus number.
The Thunder became accustomed to easy, pretty wins during their dream regular season and for two of the first three rounds of the playoffs, but the NBA Finals have been a series of battles that are testing--and forging--the championship mettle of both teams. If the Thunder keep Hartenstein in the starting lineup, don't make any silly rotation changes, and use their size to dominate the paint then they have a great chance to prevail in game five to move to within one win of an NBA title.
Labels: Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren, Indiana Pacers, Isaiah Hartenstein, Jalen Williams, Obi Toppin, Oklahoma City Thunder, Pascal Siakam, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tyrese Haliburton
posted by David Friedman @ 2:09 AM
Pacers Ride Big Fourth Quarter to Beat Thunder, Take 2-1 Series Lead
The Oklahoma City Thunder jumped out to a nine point first quarter lead, but the Indiana Pacers erased that deficit with a huge second quarter, and then used a big fourth quarter to outlast the Thunder, 116-107, to take a 2-1 series lead. The Thunder are renowned for forcing more turnovers than they commit and then pouncing on those extra possessions to score easy baskets, but in this game the Pacers scored 21 points off of 19 turnovers while giving up 14 points off of 14 turnovers. The Pacers also outscored the Thunder in the paint 50-48, and the Pacers had 17 fast break points compared to just 10 for the Thunder. The Pacers' bench outscored the Thunder's bench, 49-18. It is worth emphasizing that the Thunder changed their starting lineup before this series began--going small by inserting Cason Wallace in place of Isaiah Hartenstein--while the Pacers quite logically stuck with what has worked for them throughout the playoffs.
Role players tend to play better at home than on the road, and this game provided further evidence supporting that notion. Bennedict Mathurin scored a game-high and playoff career-high 27 points in 22 minutes off of the bench. His +16 plus/minus number was the second best in this game behind his teammate Obi Toppin (+18), who had eight points, six rebounds, and two blocked shots in 28 minutes off of the bench. T.J. McConnell became the first player in NBA Finals history with 10 points, five assists, and five steals off of the bench, posting a +12 plus/minus number in 15 minutes.
The Pacers' two big name starters made major contributions. Tyrese Haliburton scored 22 points, collected a game-high 11 assists, and grabbed a team-high nine rebounds. Pascal Siakam authored a strong all-around game with 21 points, six rebounds, four assists, and no turnovers in 32 minutes.
Jalen Williams led the Thunder with 26 points on 9-18 field goal shooting. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a rough game by his lofty standards, finishing with 24 points on 9-20 field goal shooting along with eight rebounds, four assists, and a game-high six turnovers; he had just set the record for most points scored in a player's first two NBA Finals games (72), breaking Allen Iverson's mark by one point. Chet Holmgren added 20 points and a game-high 10 rebounds, but he shot just 6-15 from the field.
The Thunder lost in the second round of the playoffs last year because
they had a small team that could be pushed around in the paint, and that
is why they acquired Hartenstein, who started 53 of the 57
regular season games that he played this season before starting each of
the Thunder's first 16 playoff games. The Thunder went 45-8 in the 53
regular season games that Hartenstein started, and they went 12-4 in the
16 playoff games that he started. Hartenstein has now come off of the
bench in each of the first three games of the NBA Finals, and the
Thunder are 1-2 in those games. I don't know or care what the
"advanced stats" say, but the statistic that matters most--wins and losses--speaks loudly,
screaming, "If it ain't broke, don't fix it."
Prior to this game, Hartenstein led the Thunder in playoff field goal percentage (.619) and he ranked second in playoff rebounding (7.9 rpg). Rather than matching down to the Pacers by playing small, the Thunder would be better served by using their size to their advantage.
The problem is not just that the Thunder went small, but that they went small in a demonstrably ineffective manner. Wallace had a -15 plus/minus number in the second quarter when the Pacers outscored the Thunder, 40-28. Instead of enjoying a double digit halftime lead, the Thunder trailed by four, 60-56. The Thunder won the third quarter 29-20 with Hartenstein playing five minutes and Wallace playing less than one minute. The Thunder lost the fourth quarter 32-18 with Wallace playing five minutes (-9 plus/minus number) and Hartenstein playing three minutes (-6 plus/minus number).
This is not meant to suggest that Hartenstein and Wallace are the two most important players in this series. The point is that players are creatures of habit and repetition, as are teams; changing the starting lineup for no good reason prior to the start of the series sends a message--to both teams--that the Thunder don't think that they can win the series by doing the same things in the same way that they did to reach the NBA Finals. The impact of who is playing with whom has a ripple effect throughout the roster, and sows unnecessary uncertainty, as players wonder if they will be the next ones whose roles are changed/reduced.
The Pacers deserve full credit for playing well, and for outplaying one of the most dominant regular season teams in NBA history, but there is no getting around the fact that the Thunder's starting lineup change is a major story in this series. It is not too late for the Thunder to salvage their season and win this series, but time is running short: in NBA playoff history, teams that take a 2-1 series lead go on to win the series nearly 80% of the time, but the Thunder overcame a 2-1 deficit versus the Denver Nuggets to win the series, 4-3. Hartenstein started all seven games in that series, averaging 11.0 ppg and 8.7 rpg while shooting .590 from the field. His size and productivity made a difference in that series, and they could make a difference in the NBA Finals as well.
The good news for Thunder fans is that game to game momentum is a myth; each game in a playoff series is a separate event that starts with a 0-0 score. However, matchups and matchup advantages matter, and the team that wins the series is the team that best exploits its advantages while hiding/minimizing its disadvantages; the Thunder's size advantage will not matter if Coach Mark Daigneault refuses to exploit it.
Labels: Bennedict Mathurin, Cason Wallace, Indiana Pacers, Isaiah Hartenstein, Oklahoma City Thunder, Pascal Siakam, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, T.J. McConnell, Tyrese Haliburton
posted by David Friedman @ 1:56 AM
Never Too Late: Haliburton's Last Second Game Winner Stuns Thunder, Lifts Pacers to 1-0 NBA Finals Lead
The Indiana Pacers did not enjoy the lead once in the first 47:59.7 of game one of the NBA Finals versus the Oklahoma City Thunder--but they very much enjoyed having the lead for the final :00.3 after Tyrese Haliburton drained the game-winning jump shot in a stunning 111-110 victory. This is the fifth time in the 2025 playoffs that the Pacers won after trailing by at least 15 points, and they have accomplished that feat at least once in each of their four playoff series versus Milwaukee, Cleveland (twice), New York, and now Oklahoma City. The Pacers trailed 94-79 at the 9:42 mark of the fourth quarter versus the Thunder, and were still behind 108-99 with 2:52 left in the fourth quarter, but they kept chipping away until Haliburton delivered the dagger after Shai Gilgeous-Alexander missed a shot with 11 seconds remaining that could have given the Thunder a three point cushion.
Six Pacers scored in double figures, including all five starters. The 2025 Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP Pascal Siakam had a team-high 19 points on 7-15 field goal shooting while grabbing 10 rebounds. Obi Toppin added 17 points off of the bench, and Myles Turner contributed 15 points, nine rebounds, and three blocked shots. Haliburton had 14 points, 10 rebounds, and a game-high tying six assists. Andrew Nembhard scored 14 points while dishing for a game-high tying six assists. Aaron Nesmith made his presence felt with 10 points plus a game-high 12 rebounds.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander poured in a game-high 38 points on 14-30 field goal shooting in his first career NBA Finals game. The moment seemed a little big for Jalen Williams, who finished with 17 points on 6-19 field goal shooting. The Thunder forced 25 turnovers and had 14 steals, but they scored just 11 points off of those extra possessions; the Pacers deserve credit for not just giving up after they turned the ball over, but the Thunder also missed a lot of high quality shots from all over the court.
Even though the Thunder led most of the way, they failed to deliver the killer third quarter blow that is their trademark. Why was this game different? The answer, as is often the case in an NBA game, is found not in the third quarter or even in the fourth quarter, but rather in the first quarter. The Thunder went 12-4 during the 2025 playoffs with a starting lineup of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, and Isaiah Hartenstein, and they went 2-0 versus the Pacers in the regular season with that starting lineup--but Coach Mark Daigneault replaced Hartenstein with Cason Wallace in the starting lineup for game one. Wallace finished with six points on 3-9 field goal shooting in 33 minutes, posting a game-worst -13 plus/minus number, while Hartenstein had nine points and a team-high nine rebounds in 17 minutes while notching a +2 plus/minus number. Sometimes the best "adjustment" is to not overthink things but to just stay the course and show confidence that your team's league-leading record is not a fluke; it will be interesting to see if Daigneault concedes his error and reinstates Hartenstein in the starting lineup for game two, or if he doubles down by keeping Wallace in the starting lineup.
The Pacers outrebounded the Thunder 56-39, and the Thunder shot just 39-98 (.398) from the field, so it is evident that going small and changing the rotation backfired in multiple ways: Wallace was not productive as a starter, limiting Hartenstein's minutes hurt the Thunder on the glass, and the Thunder were much less efficient than usual offensively. Players are creatures of habit, so changing the starting lineup can have a downstream effect on the entire roster--not to mention that the favorite team should not show any sign of weakness, including suggesting that their starting lineup is not good enough to beat the opposing team's starting lineup. Daigneault's questionable move is reminiscent of how Avery Johnson outcoached himself 18 years ago in the first round of the 2007 playoffs; the 42-40 Golden State Warriors upset Johnson's 67-15 Dallas Mavericks after the Mavericks changed their starting lineup prior to game one, going small to match up with Golden State's small lineup. The Warriors won game one, and later won the series 4-2.
This game's ending provided an example of Rick Carlisle's evolution as a coach; he has always been a smart and strategic coach, but in his early years he could be inflexible and he tended to micromanage game situations; young Carlisle would probably have called a timeout after Nembhard's defensive rebound with 6.9 seconds remaining, but veteran Carlisle trusted his team to play out the final seconds, and they rewarded his trust by getting the ball to Haliburton, who coolly delivered the dagger.
The series is not over, and momentum does not carry over to the next game, but game one winners go on to take the series more than 77% of the time so the Pacers are in command of this series unless the Thunder not only tie the series but also win a game in Indiana.
Labels: Cason Wallace, Indiana Pacers, Isaiah Hartenstein, Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder, Pascal Siakam, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tyrese Haliburton
posted by David Friedman @ 4:03 AM
Oklahoma City Versus Denver Preview
Western Conference Second Round
#1 Oklahoma City (68-14) vs. #4 Denver (50-32)
Season series: Tied, 2-2
Denver can win if…they bully the Thunder in the paint and slow down the Thunder's transition game. Nikola Jokic followed up his MVP-level regular season (29.6 ppg, 12.7 rpg, 10.2 apg) by averaging 24.0 ppg, 11.6 rpg, and 10.1 apg as the Nuggets outlasted the L.A. Clippers in seven games; only three players have averaged a triple double for an entire postseason: Oscar Robertson (1962, four games), Jason Kidd (2007, 12 games), and Russell Westbrook (2017, five games; 2021, five games). In order to beat the Thunder, the Nuggets will not only need triple double production from Jokic but they will also need their frontcourt of Jokic, Aaron Gordon (18.9 ppg, 5.7 rpg versus the Clippers), and Michael Porter Jr. (10.9 ppg, 5.7 rpg versus the Clippers) to do a lot of damage in the paint.
How a team scores can often be as important as how much a team scores; by scoring in the paint, the Nuggets can control the tempo of the game to limit the Thunder's easy transition scoring opportunities while wearing down the Thunder's players, putting the Thunder's players into foul trouble, and creating more scoring opportunities from the free throw line by getting into the bonus. If the Nuggets are lured into an up and down game then the Thunder will run them out of the gym because the Thunder are a more athletic and deeper team.
Russell Westbrook, who won the 2017 regular season MVP while playing for the Thunder, could play a key role in this series because of his athleticism and his ability to attack the paint. He averaged 13.8 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 2.8 apg, and 1.3 spg versus the Clippers.
On paper, this series is a mismatch in the Thunder's favor based on each team's overall statistics this season, but head to head these teams have been evenly matched for quite some time; it is not just
their head to head record this season that is tied: Denver and Oklahoma
City have split their last 16 games versus each other. Of course, the
caveat for that statistic is that many of those games were played when
Oklahoma City was tanking and the Nuggets were a championship team or at
least a championship contender.
If the Nuggets play at their absolute best and the Thunder drop off in any way then the Nuggets could win this series, but the Thunder have a much larger margin for error.
Oklahoma City will win because...their suffocating defense will rule the day. During the regular season, the Thunder led the NBA in points allowed (107.6 ppg), defensive field goal percentage (.436), and turnovers forced (17.0 tpg). They also led the league in fewest turnovers committed (11.7 tpg) while ranking a solid 11th in rebounding (44.8 rpg); they dominate the possession game and then they use their possessions efficiently, ranking fourth in scoring (120.5 ppg) and seventh in field goal percentage (.482). In their first
round sweep of the Memphis Grizzlies, the Thunder forced 77 turnovers
while only committing 42 turnovers, and they held the Grizzlies to .415
field goal shooting, including .304 from beyond the arc.
Shai
Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 27.8 ppg, 6.0 apg, 5.0 rpg, 1.3 spg, and 1.0
bpg during the first round. The presumptive regular season MVP shot
poorly from the field (.402), but still had an impact at both
ends of the court. Jalen Williams, who made the All-Star team for the
first time, averaged 23.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg, and 5.3 apg during the first
round. Chet Holmgren averaged 18.5 ppg, 7.8 rpg, and a team-high 2.8
bpg. Isaiah Hartenstein made his presence felt in the paint with 9.0 ppg
on .640 field goal shooting plus a team-high 8.8 rpg. Lack
of size was an issue for the Thunder during last year playoffs, but does not seem to be a
problem this season after the addition of Hartenstein.
Other things to consider: This series features two of the three finalists for regular season MVP honors: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic (the third is Giannis Antetokounmpo). The winner will likely be announced while the series takes place. In 1995, San Antonio's David Robinson was announced as the regular season MVP and then was later torched by Houston's Hakeem Olajuwon (the 1994 regular season MVP) in the Western Conference Finals: Olajuwon averaged 35.3 ppg, 12.5 rpg, 5.0 apg, and 4.2 bpg while primarily being covered one on one by Robinson, who averaged 23.8 ppg, 11.3 rpg, 2.7 apg, and 2.2 bpg as Houston won 4-2 en route to capturing the second of back to back NBA titles.
Jokic won the 2024 regular season MVP--his third such honor in a four year span--with Gilgeous-Alexander finishing second, and that order will likely be switched this year in light of the Thunder's record-setting season. Unlike Olajuwon and Robinson, Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander will not battle each other one on one in this series (except for occasional defensive switches), but this series will nevertheless be viewed historically as a referendum on the 2025 regular season MVP voting. The reality is that Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander are both worthy candidates, just as Olajuwon and Robinson were in 1995. In 1995, Olajuwon was already an NBA champion who was about to win his second NBA title, while the nearly three years younger Robinson won both of his NBA titles several years later (1999, 2003). Jokic is a little more than three years older than Gilgeous-Alexander, and Jokic won the NBA championship in 2023, while Gilgeous-Alexander has yet to win an NBA title.
In my 2025 Playoff Predictions article, I explained why I would select Jokic as the regular season MVP, and I anticipated an Oklahoma City-Denver second round matchup, favoring Oklahoma City in six games. Nothing that I saw in the first round altered my thought process on either count. I still think that Jokic is the NBA's best all-around player, and I still think that Oklahoma City will win this series.
Oklahoma City will defeat Denver in six games.
Labels: Aaron Gordon, Chet Holmgren, Denver Nuggets, Isaiah Hartenstein, Jalen Williams, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., Nikola Jokic, Oklahoma City Thunder, Russell Westbrook, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
posted by David Friedman @ 1:49 PM
