20 Second Timeout is the place to find the best analysis and commentary about the NBA.

Sunday, June 14, 2026

Jalen Brunson Erupts for 45 Points as Knicks Beat Spurs 94-90 to Capture First NBA Title Since 1973

The 2026 NBA Finals pattern is familiar by now: the San Antonio Spurs take a double digit first quarter lead before the New York Knicks storm back to win a close game, and that happened again in game five. The Knicks' 94-90 victory enabled them to win their first NBA title since 1973. The Spurs raced out to an 18-8 first quarter lead and were ahead 31-15 at the 8:29 mark of the second quarter before the Knicks slashed the margin to just 42-37 at halftime. The Spurs were on top 70-55 with just 2:25 to go in the third quarter and still had a 10 point lead (83-73) as late as the 7:43 mark of the fourth quarter, but the Knicks outscored the Spurs 21-7 the rest of the way. The Knicks are the first NBA champions with four comeback wins of at least 10 points each in the NBA Finals in the past 50 years. 

As is often the case in closeout games, neither team shot well: the Knicks shot 31-87 (.356) from the field, and the Spurs shot 33-86 (.384) from the field. The biggest difference in a hard fought game was Jalen Brunson's efficient and clutch scoring: Brunson scored 45 points on 14-27 field goal shooting to earn the 2026 Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP after averaging 32.6 ppg, 4.6 apg, 4.2 rpg and 2.0 spg in the NBA Finals with shooting splits of .421/.389/.860. Brunson is the first Knick to score at least 40 points in an NBA Finals game, and the first player to score at least 15 points in the fourth quarter of an NBA Finals-clinching win since Michael Jordan in 1998. He also tied the record for most points scored in a Finals-clinching win on the road, and he tied Jordan for the third most points in any Finals-clinching win, trailing only Giannis Antetokounmpo's 50 in 2021 and Bob Pettit's 50 in 1958. 

Brunson was the only Knick to make more than half of his field goal attempts as his teammates combined to shoot just 17-60 (.283) from the field. Mikal Bridges was the Knicks' second leading scorer with 14 points on 5-10 field goal shooting, and he had a team-high four assists. Josh Hart added 13 points on 4-11 field goal shooting and a team-high 11 rebounds while accumulating a team-high +15 plus/minus number. OG Anunoby had 11 points on 3-11 field goal shooting, eight rebounds, and a game-high tying three steals. For the series, Anunoby ranked second on the team in scoring (21.2 ppg) and led the Knicks in blocked shots (1.4 bpg) while averaging 4.8 rpg and posting shooting splits of .525/.500/.867. 

Brunson and Anunoby were the only Knicks who scored a point until the 9:04 mark of the second quarter, when Karl-Anthony Towns made his only field goal of the game to cut the Spurs' lead to 28-15. Towns finished with just two points on 1-7 field goal shooting while committing a game-high five turnovers, but he also had 10 rebounds and a game-high tying three steals before fouling out after playing just 23 minutes. Towns averaged 13.0 ppg (third on the team), 10.6 rpg (first on the team), 2.4 apg, and 1.0 bpg in the NBA Finals with shooting splits of .490/.333/1.000.

The Knicks did not get much production from their bench with the notable exception of Mitchell Robinson, who had 10 rebounds in 20 minutes, including an important offensive rebound with 22.2 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter and the Knicks clinging to a 91-88 lead.

Dylan Harper led the Spurs with 25 points on 10-19 field goal shooting in 31 minutes off of the bench. He also had five rebounds, four assists, and no turnovers, so his -12 plus/minus number is paradoxical and an example of why plus/minus is not always meaningful in small sample sizes. 

Victor Wembanyama had 19 points, a game-high 14 rebounds, and a game-high five blocked shots, but he shot just 7-19 from the field--including 1-6 from three point range--and he was almost invisible in the fourth quarter: three points on 1-5 field goal shooting, two rebounds, no blocked shots. He looked like he ran out of gas, and that will be an interesting trend to monitor throughout his career: will Wembanyama stay healthy enough and become fit enough to not just survive a long regular season and a deep playoff run but to be dominant late in games when his team needs him the most? Wembanyama averaged 26.0 ppg, 11.2 rpg, 2.6 apg, and 3.6 bpg in his first NBA Finals with shooting splits of .423/.273/.786. He ranked second on the Spurs with 33 three point field goal attempts, and that number is too high for a player who can be so dominant in the paint, particularly considering that he shot very poorly from beyond the arc in this series.

Julian Champagnie (14 points, seven rebounds) and Devin Vassell (12 points, seven rebounds) had solid performances, but the Spurs' starting backcourt struggled: De'Aaron Fox had seven points on 3-15 field goal shooting plus a game-high five assists, and Stephon Castle contributed just six points on 1-10 field goal shooting along with five rebounds and four assists. Castle ranked third on the team in scoring in the Finals (14.6 ppg) but shot just .377 from the field, and Fox tied Vassell for fourth in scoring (12.8 ppg) while shooting .343 from the field. Vassell was the Spurs' only rotation player who shot better than .500 from the field (.537) in the Finals.

The teams combined to miss their first six field goal attempts of the game, foreshadowing how this contest would be more about grit than about high octane offense. Wembanyama opened the scoring with a fast break dunk at the 9:48 mark of the first quarter (the official play by play sheet says that Wembanyama made the shot at 9:44). Brunson answered with a three pointer, but the Knicks started the game shooting 2-13 from the field and they trailed 23-13 by the end of the first quarter. The Knicks' 13 first quarter points tied for the second fewest first quarter points in an NBA Finals game in the shot clock era, which dates back to the 1954-55 season. Harper led the Spurs with seven first quarter points, while Wembanyama stuffed the box score with six points, four rebounds, and three blocked shots. Brunson paced the Knicks with eight points on 3-6 field goal shooting, but his teammates scored just five points on 1-16 field goal shooting; the notion that the Knicks were just 36 minutes of game time away from becoming NBA champions seemed farfetched if not preposterous--until one recalled that the Knicks erased a 29 point second half deficit in game four

Neither team shot well in the second quarter, but the Knicks scored 24 points on 9-22 (.409) field goal shooting to chip away at the Spurs' lead. With their season on the line, the Spurs managed just 19 second quarter points on 6-23 (.231) field goal shooting, and they needed Vassell's fadeaway jumper at the buzzer to have a 42-37 halftime lead. Brunson led both teams with 16 first half points, but he was just warming up for a fantastic finish. Harper (11 points) was the only Spur who scored in double figures in the first half.

The Spurs scored 30 third quarter points on 11-20 (.550) field goal shooting, but Brunson kept the Knicks in contact by scoring 14 of his team's 28 third quarter points. A play that could have been a turning point happened at the 5:29 mark of the third quarter. After Brunson drilled a top of the key three pointer to slash the Spurs' lead to 59-53, his left foot landed on top of Wembanyama's right foot and Brunson slumped to the floor holding his left ankle. By rule, that should have been deemed a flagrant foul on Wembanyama for interfering with Brunson's landing area--and that rule is in place because of the dirty play by Zaza Pachulia that put Kawhi Leonard out of action in game one of the 2017 Western Conference Finals when Leonard's Spurs enjoyed a 23 point lead versus the Golden State Warriors. The Warriors rallied to win that game, and then swept the next three games with Leonard unable to play due to the ankle injury he suffered from the Pachulia foul. Imagine if Brunson had not been able to play for the rest of game five or beyond; that could have altered not just the game but the entire series. Also, if Wembanyama had been called for a flagrant foul then based on his total flagrant foul points in the 2026 playoffs he would have been automatically suspended for game six of the NBA Finals if game six had been necessary (or for his next regular season game since the Knicks won game five). Brunson admitted after the game that he was hurting but that he blocked out the pain to focus on finishing the job. The NBA must do a better job of consistently enforcing its rules, particularly rules that relate to player safety. 

The fourth quarter was the Brunson show: 15 points on 4-6 field goal shooting to nearly match the Spurs' scoring output in the final 12 minutes (18 points) by himself. Brunson hit three free throws with 3:40 remaining to give the Knicks their first lead (86-85) since the 7:49 mark of the first quarter. The Spurs later tied the score once, but they never led again. Late game free throw shooting was a problem for both teams, but more so for the Spurs because they trailed and needed to score quickly. In the final 26.1 seconds, Hart, Anunoby, and Bridges each split a pair of free throws before Harper missed two free throws. Anunoby finally sealed the win by making one out of two free throws with 7.7 seconds left, after which Wembanyama missed a long three pointer. 

In my NBA Finals Preview, I picked the Spurs to win in six games but said that the Knicks could beat the Spurs if the Knicks won the possession game by outrebounding the Spurs and by committing fewer turnovers than the Spurs. The Knicks outscored the Spurs 522-510 in the series, and they won the possession battle both on the boards (226-222) and by committing fewer turnovers (60 for the Spurs, 56 for the Knicks). It is interesting to note that although Wembanyama was the top shot blocker in the series by a wide margin (18-7 over Anunoby), overall the Spurs led the Knicks in blocked shots by just 29-24. Even though the Knicks won the series 4-1, this was a closely contested series decided by the Knicks' ability to be more efficient in the clutch moments and by the Knicks' slight edge in the possession game.

Wembanyama is portrayed as the player of the future and the Spurs are talked about as the team of the future, but all of that is just speculation; the reality is that the Knicks are the team of right now, and a team that will be remembered in New York for at least as long as the 53 year NBA title drought that they ended.

Mike Brown has been doubted and unfairly criticized by media members, but now he has an NBA championship ring as a head coach to add to the four championships he earned as an assistant coach with San Antonio (2003) and Golden State (2017, 2018, 2022). 

Jalen Brunson has been doubted throughout his NBA career, but he silenced his critics with his clutch shooting and his focused leadership; in 2024, I pointed out that most 6-4 and under guards are not able to lead a team to an NBA title while suggesting that Brunson may prove to be the exception to that general rule. Hall of Famer Becky Hammon was perhaps the most vocal of many commentators who questioned whether Brunson could be the best player on an NBA championship team. Asked what he would say to his critics after winning an NBA Finals MVP and an NBA title, Brunson did not ask for or demand respect but instead he replied, "I didn't respond to them then, and I'm damn sure not going to respond to them now." 

Karl-Anthony Towns has not only been doubted; he has been mocked for his playing style and for his tendency to accumulate fouls in bunches, but during this season and this playoff run he displayed his versatile basketball talents and his willingness to do whatever his team needs him to do to win, even at the cost of his personal statistics. In moments of triumph, some people express bitterness or defiance, but Towns took a different route, thanking his former teammates with the Minnesota Timberwolves for helping him grow as a player. 

The Knicks overcame the doubters to beat a talented team and win a championship that will forever have a special place in the annals of New York sports lore. 

Labels: , , , , , , ,

posted by David Friedman @ 4:01 AM

6 comments

Thursday, June 11, 2026

Anunoby Game-Winning Tip-In Caps Largest Comeback in NBA Finals History as Knicks Take 3-1 Lead Over Spurs

Depending on your perspective, game four of the NBA Finals either featured the greatest comeback or the greatest collapse in NBA Finals history; the San Antonio Spurs led the New York Knicks 81-52 with 9:40 remaining in the third quarter, but OG Anunoby's tip-in of Jalen Brunson's missed three pointer with 1.2 seconds left in the fourth quarter proved to be the game-winning shot as the Knicks prevailed 107-106 to take a 3-1 series lead. The Knicks accomplished the largest comeback in NBA Finals history, and the largest halftime comeback in NBA playoff history. This series has repeatedly featured wild momentum swings--with double digit leads repeatedly being built and squandered by both teams--but at the end the games have consistently been close, and this is just the second NBA Finals with multiple games decided by just one point, with the first being the 1975 Finals when Rick Barry's Golden State Warriors swept the Washington Bullets

Brunson scored a game-high 36 points on 12-25 field goal shooting while dishing for a game-high tying seven assists, grabbing five rebounds, and swiping a team-high three steals in a game-high 44 minutes. Anunoby had 33 points on 10-15 field goal shooting, including 7-9 from three point range. His blocked shot on De'Aaron Fox' layup attempt with 11.1 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter gave the Knicks the opportunity to take the lead and win the game. Karl-Anthony Towns was the Knicks' only other double figure scorer with 13 points plus a team-high 10 rebounds and a game-high +17 plus/minus numbe. Special mention must be made of reserve guard Jose Alvarado, the Knicks' fourth leading scorer with eight points on 3-4 field goal shooting in 16 minutes. Alvarado tied Brunson and Josh Hart (six points, eight rebounds, six assists, two steals) for the team's second best plus/minus number (+11). Alvarado scored all of his points in the fourth quarter when he took the place of the ineffective Mikal Bridges, shooting 3-3 from the field while leading the team with three assists. In the fourth quarter, Brunson (nine points), Anunoby (eight points), and Alvarado (eight points) combined to outscore the Spurs by themselves.

Victor Wembanyama scored a team-high 24 points and corralled a game-high 13 rebounds, but he shot just 9-25 from the field, including 2-8 from three point range. As the Spurs collapsed in the second half, Wembanyama had just eight points on 3-14 field goal shooting. Dylan Harper contributed 21 points off of the bench with a team-high +12 plus/minus number. Fox added 18 points on 6-16 field goal shooting while passing for a game-high tying seven assists. Stephon Castle had 13 points, five rebounds, and five assists, but he shot just 2-7 from the field. 

Saying that a game was a "tale of two halves" is an old cliche, but that is a precise description of this game. 

The first half tale saw the Spurs leading 76-49 after shooting 28-47 (.595) from the field and committing just two turnovers while holding the Knicks to 15-37 (.405) field goal shooting with seven turnovers. The Spurs shot 14-26 (.538) from beyond the arc while setting NBA Finals records for most three pointers in a half and biggest halftime lead by a visiting team (which was also the third biggest halftime lead by any NBA Finals team). Four Spurs scored at least 13 first half points: Victor Wembanyama (16), Dylan Harper (15), Devin Vassell (15), and De'Aaron Fox (13). Brunson led the Knicks with 19 points and Anunoby added 14 points, but the other three New York starters had just 14 points while seven New York reserves combined to score two points.

The second half tale was even more improbable than the Spurs' first half dominance, as the Knicks outscored the Spurs 58-30 while shooting 21-41 (.512) from the field and limiting the Spurs to 8-39 (.205 field goal shooting). The Spurs shot 3-17 (.176) from beyond the arc in perhaps the ultimate example of why high volume three point shooting is a high variance style of play; although "stat gurus" praise high volume three point shooting as the paragon of supposedly efficient offensive play, the reality is that teams that rely too heavily on three point shooting make themselves susceptible to long scoring droughts, particularly in the playoffs against tough-minded defensive teams. Charles Barkley of ABC/ESPN called the Spurs' second half three point barrage some of the dumbest basketball that he has seen in the 40-plus years that he has been involved with the NBA. Barkley is prone to hyperbole, but considering what was at stake and the fact that the Spurs have a 7-4 player who is supposed to be the future of the league, it is not extreme to suggest that the Spurs should have at least considered the option of slowing down, feeding the ball to Wembanyama in the paint (or at least inside the three point arc), and forcing the Knicks to guard him possession after possession. It cannot be emphasized enough that when the Spurs built their huge first half lead they outscored the Knicks in the paint 24-18, which indicates that the Spurs attacked the paint and then created rhythm three point shots by collapsing the defense. This is in marked contrast to the second half, when the Knicks outscored the Spurs in the paint 16-4.

This game provides a great example of why teams should not get frustrated by officiating or stop playing hard even when everything seems to be falling apart. Towns, who is often prone to collect fouls at an alarming rate, had two fouls in the first 1:02 of the game, resulting in him missing most of the first quarter. His second foul was initially whistled against Wembanyama, but then after a coach's challenge it was determined that Towns had committed an offensive foul on his drive to the hoop by hooking Wembanyama. The Spurs were already up 5-2 when Towns was replaced by Mitchell Robinson, and then the Spurs went on a 7-0 run to take a 12-2 lead. The Spurs were up by as much as 21 points in the first quarter, and were on top 41-22 entering the second quarter. 

New York coach Mike Brown shuffled 12 players into the game in the first half as the Knicks dealt with foul trouble and struggled to find a five man unit that could be effective at either end of the court, but the Spurs still won the second quarter, 35-27.

It was not immediately apparent in the third quarter how drastically this game would shift. Nearly four minutes into the quarter, the Spurs were still up 81-59. The Spurs' lead fluctuated between 16 and 20 points for most of the third quarter before Brunson's feed to Robinson for a dunk cut the margin to 87-72 at the 2:43 mark. Vassell answered with a three pointer to nudge the lead back up to 18, but Anunoby closed the third quarter scoring with a trey to trim the deficit to 90-75 entering the final stanza. Coming back from 29 points down in the NBA Finals sounds impossible, but erasing a 15 point lead in the fourth quarter is quite doable, particularly considering that the Knicks beat the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first game of the second round after trailing by 22 points with 7:52 left in the fourth quarter

In the fourth quarter, the Spurs nearly pulled off a collective "Harden" (referring to when a player--usually Harden--has more turnovers than field goals made), shooting 4-19 (.211) from the field while committing four turnovers. The Spurs still led 104-97 with 3:31 to go after Wembanyama made a jump shot, but the Knicks went on an 8-0 run in the next 2:09 to take their first lead of the game on a Brunson floater. Castle's two free throws put the Spurs up 106-105 with 30.3 seconds remaining, and it still seemed possible that the Knicks' huge comeback would be for naught. Brunson missed a floater in the lane with 16.1 seconds remaining, and Fox pushed the ball up the court after snaring the rebound. Fox could have held on to the ball to run the clock down and force the Knicks to foul him, but instead he attempted a layup with 11.1 seconds remaining. He later explained that his idea was to put the Spurs up by three points so that the Knicks would need a three pointer just to tie the game. Anunoby's chase down block gave the Knicks one last chance. Alvarado advanced the ball past midcourt before the Knicks called timeout. After the timeout, Anunoby inbounded the ball to Brunson and cut hard to the hoop. Brunson's three point shot looked good but was just off, and then Anunoby made the tip-in that will be replayed for decades (particularly if the Knicks win the championship). The Spurs called time out to advance the ball but were not even able to get off a shot in the final 1.2 seconds. 

After steamrolling the Knicks 41-22 in the first quarter, the Spurs got trampled 32-16 in the fourth quarter. The NBA is often a first quarter league--a point that I have repeatedly made, and that ABC/ESPN play by play announcer Mike Breen mentioned early in the third quarter--but in this game the fourth quarter proved to be decisive.

Casual fans may not understand how long an NBA game is, or how long a playoff series is. This comeback was unprecedented, but in general a 48 minute game provides plenty of time for a comeback, and an NBA best out of seven series is far different from a 40 minute NCAA tournament game in which the better team can go cold for five or 10 minutes and be eliminated by an inferior team. In the 2026 NBA Finals, the Spurs have had big runs, often seemed to have the much-talked about "momentum," and enjoyed a lead in the final two minutes of all four games, but now they trail 3-1 and face a daunting task to defeat a resilient Knicks team that never loses faith and never quits. The Spurs have the most talented player in the series, but they have not figured out how to consistently exploit Wembanyama's height, reach, agility, and shooting touch; meanwhile, in game four the Knicks did a masterful job of utilizing matchups and switches to drag Wembanyama out of the paint on defense to clear driving lanes for scores in the paint and for kick out passes for open three pointers.

Labels: , , , , , , , ,

posted by David Friedman @ 3:22 AM

3 comments

Thursday, June 04, 2026

Brunson Burner Singes Spurs as Knicks Steal Game One of the NBA Finals

The New York Knicks built a 14-7 first quarter lead but had to come back from a 14 point third quarter deficit to earn a 105-95 win versus the San Antonio Spurs in game one of the NBA Finals. The Knicks shot 39-94 (.415) from the field and were outrebounded 54-49, but they held the Spurs to 32-89 (.360) field goal shooting while forcing 13 turnovers and committing just nine turnovers (including just one in the decisive second half). The Knicks outscored the Spurs in the paint 50-42, won the second chance scoring battle 23-14, and only narrowly trailed in fast break points (15-12) even though the Spurs are a younger and more athletic team. The Knicks are the seventh team in NBA history to win at least 12 consecutive playoff games, and just the third to do so in a single postseason, joining the 1999 Spurs (who also won 12 games in a row) and the 2017 Golden State Warriors (who won 15 games in a row); both of those teams won the NBA title.

Jalen Brunson overcame a poor first quarter (three points on 1-7 field goal shooting) to finish with a game-high 30 points on 12-31 field goal shooting. Along the way, he battled early injuries to his right knee and left ankle that caused him to miss some time during the first half. Brunson had just two assists and a team-high four turnovers, but he dominated the fourth quarter with 13 points on 5-9 field goal shooting as the Knicks outscored the Spurs 29-19 in the final stanza; basketball has a lot of strategy, but sometimes--particularly in close games--it comes down to something as simple as which team's star player makes clutch shots.

Karl-Anthony Towns had 18 points, 12 rebounds, four assists, and the game's second best plus/minus number (+14). His individual defense versus Victor Wembanyama was excellent, and he also did a superb job of attacking Wembanyama's defense by driving aggressively to the hoop when he had the ball and crashing the offensive boards (game-high tying four offensive rebounds) when he did not have the ball. I picked the Spurs to beat the Knicks, but I noted, "Towns' effectiveness at both ends of the court--and whether he avoids committing silly fouls--will be a key factor in this series." Winning basketball is about a lot more than just crunching numbers--this is a recurring theme in my NBA coverage--and Towns' impact in game one goes well beyond what his boxscore numbers suggest and even what his plus/minus number indicates. ESPN's Charles Barkley said that Towns was the Knicks' most valuable player in this game, and that Towns will be the key player for the whole series.

Josh Hart had a game-high +22 plus/minus number despite scoring just three points on 1-5 field goal shooting; he made his impact felt all over the court with a game-high 15 rebounds, a game-high six assists, and a game-high four steals (matching all of the Spurs combined). 

OG Anunoby's boxscore numbers do not jump off of the page (17 points, three rebounds, -6 plus/minus number), but he had 12 points and a +5 plus/minus number in the fourth quarter with the game up for grabs.

Landry Shamet continued his hot shooting and timely scoring with 13 points in 33 minutes off of the bench. He was the only New York reserve who played more than 20 minutes or scored more than 10 points.

Mitchell Robinson survived perhaps the world's most famous broken pinkie to compile six rebounds in 13 minutes off of the bench. 

Victor Wembanyama led the Spurs in scoring (26 points), rebounds (12), and blocked shots (three) but he also had a game-high six turnovers. He scored 11 of the Spurs' 19 fourth quarter points, but he shot just 3-8 from the field; overall, Wembanyama shot 6-21 from the field, including 2-9 from beyond the arc, and those numbers are not good enough for a player of his caliber: Wembanyama must have a higher field goal percentage, and he must shoot fewer three pointers--and it should be obvious that the solution to both equations involves attacking the paint instead of being satisfied to float around the perimeter. 

Stephon Castle contributed 17 points and eight rebounds, Julian Champagnie added 16 points and 10 rebounds, and Dylan Harper had 16 points and eight rebounds off of the bench. Champagnie provided a major first half spark (15 points, 5-6 three point field goal shooting, six rebounds), but he disappeared in the second half after the Knicks stopped leaving him wide open. 

As is the case with many NBA games, this was a game of runs. The Knicks could not sustain their early lead, and by the end of the first quarter the Spurs were up, 27-19. The Knicks briefly went ahead in the second quarter, but never by more than one point, and by halftime the Spurs enjoyed a 55-48 advantage. Both teams struggled to shoot .400 from the field in the first half, but the Spurs had three fewer turnovers and 10 more free throws made. The Spurs opened the third quarter with a 10-3 run in the first 5:29 with Wembanyama sinking four free throws, Castle scoring on a drive, and Castle scoring on a putback as well as Harper converting a floater. The tide shifted shortly after Luke Kornet subbed in for Wembanyama; in the next five minutes, the Knicks used a 20-10 burst to tie the game at 71, and the score was 76-76 heading into the fourth quarter. 

Neither team led by more than five points in the fourth quarter until Brunson scored a fast break layup at the 6:34 mark to put the Knicks up, 92-86. After play was halted briefly because an idiot ran onto the court from the stands, the Spurs won the ensuing jump ball but the Knicks turned Champagnie's missed three pointer into a Brunson fast break layup. Wembanyama answered with a three pointer, followed by Champagnie splitting a pair of free throws and Wembanyama completing a three point play after Towns fouled him on a drive. Wembanyama made two more free throws to put the Spurs up 95-94 at the 2:16 mark, but after Anunoby missed a three pointer Brunson tipped the long rebound to Mikal Bridges, who passed back to Brunson in the right corner for a dagger three pointer with 1:50 remaining to give the Knicks a lead that they would not relinquish. The Knicks outscored the Spurs 11-0 in the final 1:50.

Each game in a seven game series has its own rhythm, but matchup advantages remain constant unless impacted by foul trouble or injuries. For the Spurs to win game two and eventually win the series, they need Wembanyama to impose his presence in the paint at both ends of the court; in game one, he let Towns push him to the perimeter on offense far too often, and when the Spurs were on defense the Knicks cleverly used ball movement and player movement to open up driving lanes to attack the paint at angles that made it difficult for Wembanyama to guard his man and protect the rim. The Spurs seem to have an armada of rangy, athletic wings who can make life difficult for Brunson, but after Brunson's slow first quarter start he shot 11-24 the rest of the way and he dominated the fourth quarter. The Spurs controlled significant portions of game one and only trailed 97-95 with less than 90 seconds left in the game, so it is not like they need to make wholesale changes--or the much talked about "adjustments"--to win game two; if they play the way that they played for most of the regular season and most of the playoffs then they will put themselves in position to be successful.

All that being said, winning game one is important. Since the NBA went to the 16 team playoff format in 1984, the game one winner in the NBA Finals eventually won the series 28 times in 42 attempts (.667 winning percentage), and that trend has held true recently: the game one winner has won the NBA finals seven times in the past 10 years. Also, the overall series winning percentage of game one winners since 1984 is .771, a number that is inflated a bit by the large number of first round mismatches in which the higher seeded team wins the first game and then cruises to a series victory. The oft-repeated notion that game one is a "feel out game" is not supported by the numbers; historically, game one is a reliable indicator of who will win the series, and it is amusing that people who claim to rely on "analytics" seem to struggle to understand this.

Labels: , , , , , , , , ,

posted by David Friedman @ 2:45 AM

5 comments

Sunday, May 17, 2026

Oklahoma City Versus San Antonio Preview

Western Conference Finals

#1 Oklahoma City (64-18) vs. #2 San Antonio (62-20) 

Season series: San Antonio, 4-1 

San Antonio can win if…Victor Wembanyama dominates the paint at both ends of the court while the Spurs' backcourt troika of Stephon Castle, De'Aaron Fox, and Dylan Harper keeps pace with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder's deep rotation of perimeter players. The Spurs won the regular season series 4-1 by controlling the paint and by not letting the Thunder dominate the possession game; the Thunder typically thrive when they force a lot of turnovers while minimizing their own turnovers.

Wembanyama's debut playoff run has been very productive so far; he has averaged a team-high 20.3 ppg, a team-high 10.7 rpg, and a league-leading 4.1 bpg in 10 games. He missed game three in the first round versus Portland while he was in concussion protocol, and he ranks just fourth on the team in playoff mpg (28.8) as the Spurs do everything possible to keep him healthy and fresh. 

Wembanyama averaged 19.8 ppg while leading the Spurs in rebounding (12.0 rpg) and blocked shots (4.2 bpg) as the Spurs eliminated the Minnesota Timberwolves 4-2 in the second round, ending the Timberwolves' bid to make a third straight appearance in the Western Conference Finals. Wembanyama had a slow offensive start to the series in San Antonio's 104-102 game one loss (11 points on 5-17 field goal shooting) but he also snared a game-high 15 rebounds and set an NBA single game playoff record with 12 blocked shots, surpassing the previous mark (10) held by three players (Mark Eaton, Hakeem Olajuwon, and Andrew Bynum) for a statistic that the NBA has tracked since the 1973-74 season (which means that the numbers for Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, and a young Kareem Abdul-Jabbar are not known). The Spurs then won two straight games with Wembanyama leading the way, notching 19 points, a game-high 15 rebounds, and two blocked shots in San Antonio's 133-95 game two rout before exploding for 39 points, 15 rebounds, and five blocked shots in San Antonio's 115-108 game three victory. Wembanyama was ejected for elbowing Naz Reid in the head after playing less than 13 minutes in game four, and the Spurs lost 114-109. Wembanyama bounced back with 19 points, a game-high 17 rebounds, and a game-high three blocked shots in the Spurs' 126-97 game five win at home, and then he had 19 points, six rebounds, and a game-high three blocked shots as the Spurs closed out the series with a 139-109 rout on the road.

Castle ranks second on the team in playoff scoring (19.9 ppg), first in playoff assists (6.1 apg), and second in three point field goals made (22). Fox is third on the team in playoff scoring (18.8 ppg) and second in assists (5.8 apg). Harper is fourth on the team in playoff scoring (13.7 ppg) and third in rebounds (5.1 rpg). Their numbers are not overwhelming individually, but collectively they put a lot of pressure on opponents in multiple ways, and they make it difficult for opponents to load up on Wembanyama.

Oklahoma City will win because…the Thunder are more consistent and more efficient. The Spurs' regular season dominance of the Thunder should not be dismissed, and it could be argued that the Spurs are a better team now than they were even just a few months ago, but the Thunder have proven over the past two seasons that they are capable of rising to the occasion when it matters most.

The Thunder are the only team to sweep the first two rounds of the 2026 playoffs, and they are the first reigning NBA champion to sweep the first two rounds since the 2001 Lakers accomplished this during the second championship run of their 2000-02 "three-peat."

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander did not perform up to his high standards during the Thunder's 4-0 second round sweep of the L.A. Lakers, but he still led both teams in scoring (24.5 ppg) while pacing the Thunder in assists (6.0 apg). Overall, Gilgeous-Alexander is leading the Thunder in playoff scoring (29.1 ppg) and assists (7.1 apg) with shooting splits of .514/.323/.855. He is the 2026 playoff leader in two point field goals made per game and free throws made per game.

The Thunder have rolled even though their second best player, 2025 All-Star Jalen Williams, has only played in two of their eight playoff games, averaging 20.5 ppg on .615 field goal shooting. Williams has been out of action with a grade 1 left hamstring strain since suffering the injury on April 22 in the Thunder's 120-107 game two win versus Phoenix in the first round.

Willaims' absence has given Ajay Mitchell a chance to shine. Mitchell is averaging 18.8 ppg in eight playoff games with six starts after averaging 13.6 ppg in 57 regular season games with 16 starts. 

Chet Holmgren (18.6 ppg, team-high 9.1 rpg, team-high 1.8 bpg) and Isaish Hartenstein (9.9 ppg, 8.8 rpg, team-high .756 FG%) control the paint at both ends of the court. There is no love lost between Wembanyama and Holmgren, so that will be a fun--and critical--matchup to watch.

Alex Caruso (7.6 ppg, 1.5 spg), Cason Wallace (7.3 ppg, team-high 1.8 spg), Philadelphia cast-off Jared McCain (7.3 ppg), and Isaiah Joe (6.6 ppg) anchor a deep, versatile bench.

Other things to consider: In The Glitch in "The Process" is a Feature, not a Bug, I discussed how the Thunder assembled their championship-winning roster:

Here is how the Thunder acquired their top nine players in regular season mpg from their 2025 championship season: 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander--the NBA's reigning regular season MVP, Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP, and Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP--is the Thunder's franchise player. The Thunder obtained Gilgeous-Alexander and the draft pick that became All-Star Jalen Williams (their second best player) by trading Paul George to the L.A. Clippers. Morey's 76ers later signed Paul George after the Clippers wisely decided to not give George a maximum contract extension. 

The Thunder used a first round draft pick obtained by tanking to select Chet Holmgren. 

Lu Dort was not drafted, Isaiah Hartenstein was a free agent, Cason Wallace was acquired in a trade, Aaron Wiggins was a second round draft pick, Isaiah Joe was a free agent who had been waived by the 76ers, and Alex Caruso was acquired in a trade that sent Josh Giddey from the Thunder to the Chicago Bulls. The Thunder had selected Giddey with a first round pick obtained by tanking, but after they determined that Giddey was not the best fit with the rest of their roster they shrewdly shipped him out to obtain a proven championship-winning veteran who is a great leader and great defensive player.

Thunder general manager Sam Presti cut his NBA teeth with the San Antonio Spurs before the Thunder hired him. Knicks coach Mike Brown is also a product of the Spurs' system. I interviewed Brown during his first stint with the Cleveland Cavaliers, and he told me that he takes after his mentor Gregg Popovich in terms of not being a big numbers guy. When I asked Brown what statistics he values, he mentioned defensive field goal percentage and points allowed but not any of the "advanced basketball statistics" that are so in vogue in some quarters and that are so heavily valued by people like Hinkie and Morey. During their 2025 championship season, the Thunder ranked first in defensive field goal percentage and third in points allowed; they ranked first and second respectively in those categories this season. 

As I noted in my 2025 Western Conference Finals Preview, tanking is not why the Thunder are winning, and the Thunder's success should not be considered a justification of tanking "because tanking cheats paying fans while demeaning and diminishing the value of competition. The NBA was much better when load management and tanking did not exist."

The Spurs' roster construction seems less pure. From the outside looking in, it appears that the Spurs tanked to get Wembanyama and then were either very poorly coached during Wembanyama's first season or else tanked again to obtain Castle's draft rights. It is interesting that, in contrast to several teams that admit to tanking (the 76ers being the most obvious example), then-Spurs' coach Gregg Popovich explicitly denied that the Spurs were losing on purpose or would ever lose on purpose. Regardless of what the Spurs did or did not do to obtain Wembanyama, they are so fortunate that Wembanyama is 100% committed to playing selfless, winning basketball as opposed to focusing on individual glory. Wembanyama looks like a player who is capable of leading a team to a championship--but the Thunder have already won a championship with Gilgeous-Alexander leading a talented, deep, and selfless roster. The Spurs more than had the measure of the Thunder during the regular season, but playoff basketball is contested at a different intensity level than regular season basketball. It would not be shocking if the Spurs win this series, but I think that they are still at least a year away from winning the Western Conference Finals.

Oklahoma City will defeat San Antonio in six games.

Labels: , , , , , , , , ,

posted by David Friedman @ 8:21 AM

2 comments

Wednesday, December 17, 2025

Knicks Rebound in Second Half, Top Spurs 124-113 to Capture NBA Cup

The New York Knicks outrebounded the San Antonio Spurs 59-42--including 34-18 in the second half--en route to winning the NBA Cup Championship Game, 124-113. OG Anunoby scored a game-high 28 points on 10-17 field goal shooting, and he also grabbed nine rebounds. Jalen Brunson--who received the NBA Cup MVP--had a quiet game by his lofty standards, finishing with 25 points on 11-27 field goal shooting plus a team-high eight assists as he amassed a game-high tying +15 plus/minus number. Karl-Anthony Towns added 16 points and 11 rebounds. The Knicks would not have won without strong performances by bench players Jordan Clarkson (15 points, game-high tying +15 plus/minus number), Tyler Kolek (14 points, five assists, five rebounds, +14 plus/minus number), and Mitchell Robinson (four points, game-high 15 rebounds, +9 plus/minus number). 

Dylan Harper led the Spurs with 21 points off of the bench, and he also had a team-high tying seven rebounds. Victor Wembanyama, playing in just his second game after missing 12 games due to injury, had 18 points, six rebounds, and two blocked shots in 25 minutes off of the bench, but he had a game-worst -18 plus/minus number. Wembanyama has said that he modeled his game after several French players--including Tony Parker and Boris Diaw--and that his NBA role model is Russell Westbrook; his versatility is an asset, but in this game the Spurs would have benefited most if he had been a dominant rebounder instead of tying for third on his team in that category. De'Aaron Fox added 16 points and nine assists, but he shot just 5-13 from the field. Stephon Castle contributed 15 points, a game-high 12 assists, and seven rebounds while committing only two turnovers, but he also shot poorly from the field (5-15). The Spurs lost because of inefficient offense combined with an inability to complete defensive possessions with rebounds; they shot just .414 (41-99) from the field, and they barely grabbed half of the available defensive rebounds, controlling 24 defensive rebounds while giving up 23 offensive rebounds.

The Spurs never trailed in the first half, but they also never led by more than seven points before settling for a 61-59 halftime edge. Devin Vassell paced the Spurs with 12 first half points before going scoreless in the second half. Luke Kornet, who started at center because Wembanyama is still playing restricted minutes, had 10 first half points and a +9 plus minus number in 14 minutes before scoring just four points in 10 second half minutes. Wembanyama had a gaudy +21 plus/minus number in San Antonio's 111-109 NBA Cup semifinals win versus the Oklahoma City Thunder, but he only found his footing in spurts in this game, and he had a quiet first half (four points on 2-6 field goal shooting, four rebounds, -7 plus/minus number). Anunoby (20 first half points) and Brunson (15 first half points) did most of the damage for the Knicks in the first 24 minutes. 

Castle's free throw at the 5:50 mark of the third quarter pushed the Spurs' lead to 82-71, but the Knicks trimmed the deficit to 94-89 by the end of the stanza before taking their first lead of the game, 97-94, on Clarkson's three pointer with 10:27 remaining in the fourth quarter. That shot capped off a 10-0 Knicks'  run spanning the end of the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter. The Knicks led the rest of the way, but did not enjoy a double digit advantage until Kolek made a pair of free throws to put them up 120-110 with just 33.4 seconds left. 

I picked the Knicks to win the Eastern Conference, but I underestimated the Knicks in the NBA Cup Championship Game, picking the Spurs to beat the Knicks in a close contest. Perhaps I fell victim to recency bias after watching the Spurs end the Thunder's 16 game winning streak, but I think that there should be high expectations for the Spurs. In my 2025-26 Western Conference Preview, I wrote, "There are no more excuses for missing the playoffs. The Spurs have a generational talent--the 2024 NBA Rookie of the Year Victor Wembanyama--plus they have veteran former All-Star guard De'Aaron Fox, and they also have 2025 NBA Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle." 

Robinson seized 10 offensive rebounds, including six in the fourth quarter when the Knicks took control of the game. Despite all of the talk about "range shooting" and "gravity," defense and rebounding are still essential elements for winning basketball games. Amazon Prime's announcing crew of Ian Eagle, Dwyane Wade, and Stan Van Gundy acknowledged Robinson's impact and they also praised Kolek's contributions as a scorer, playmaker, and secondary ballhandler who took pressure off of Brunson. After Brunson received the MVP trophy, he mentioned that the team win and the individual award would not have been possible without the contributions from OG Anunoby, Tyler Kolek, Jordan Clarkson, and Mitchell Robinson. Anunoby and Robinson provided elite defense and rebounding, while Kolek and Clarkson contributed supplementary scoring. 

This was a competitive and entertaining NBA game, but I still have mixed feelings about the NBA Cup because it should not be necessary to provide over $500,000 per player in bonus money to extract maximum effort and focus from these very highly paid professionals. It also is not necessary to keep telling fans how great the NBA Cup is as a concept and how well-played the NBA Cup games have been; fans can see with their own eyes, and make their own judgments.

Van Gundy is very knowledgeable about basketball, but it has become difficult to listen to him call a game because of his not so thinly veiled political commentary that no one requested or needs (regardless of whether you agree or disagree with him), and because of bombastic statements such as, "If you're not a fan of the NBA Cup then you just don't like basketball." Not only is that a self-serving statement--he is being paid by the NBA to like and promote the NBA Cup--but it is a ridiculous statement. I have loved basketball for my whole life, and I have very good, logical reasons for not being a fan of the NBA Cup. The NBA Cup quarterfinals, semifinals, and Championship Game were competitive, but by putting extra emphasis on these games--and by offering bonus money for these games--the NBA is implicitly saying that non-NBA Cup games are not as important. It is strange for the NBA to devalue the vast majority of its regular season games, and to admit that the league's multimillionaire players will not play hard without being offered more money on top of the lavish, guaranteed sums that they are already paid.

To the extent that NBA Cup games are better than regular season NBA games, that could be interpreted as an indictment of the attitude that players have toward the regular season more than as a recommendation for the NBA Cup. A cynic could suggest that if the players' effort and attention is affected to this extent by money then perhaps the NBA should get rid of guaranteed contracts and directly connect compensation to performance; most of us who have real world jobs outside of the fantasy worlds of sports/entertainment are evaluated every year based on our performance, and our compensation is impacted by how well we perform. I understand that due to the nature of collective bargaining there is a 0.00% chance that guaranteed contracts will be eliminated, but Van Gundy's relentless politicking about the NBA Cup's greatness did not resonate with me at all. 

Van Gundy is at his best when he analyzes team strategy and the skill sets of individual players, and he is at his worst when he ventures beyond his expertise to become a shill for the NBA. The excellent Amazon Prime studio crew of Taylor Rooks, Dirk Nowitzki, Steve Nash, Blake Griffin, and Udonis Haslem interviewed NBA Commissioner Adam Silver before the game, and it was interesting to hear Silver criticize unnamed commentators who he claimed talk badly about the NBA instead of just analyzing the games; it does not take a conspiracy theorist to figure out that he was most likely referring to Charles Barkley and Shaquille O'Neal, not does it take a conspiracy theorist to contrast Van Gundy's gushing praise for the NBA Cup and Adam Silver with the way that the NBA managed to largely remove the very popular--and very candid--NBA on TNT crew from the regular broadcast rotation. As the kids would say, Van Gundy understands the assignment; he is keenly aware of Silver's views about both politics and about the league. I did not agree with everything that the NBA on TNT guys said--or sometimes failed to say--about basketball and about social issues, but I always felt that they were being honest as opposed to reciting the company line.

The NBA and its media partners promote the NBA Cup as if it is very significant, but the NBA Cup Championship Game is not included in the regular season standings, nor does it not confer any advantage for playoff seeding, and the game's statistics do not officially count. The NBA Cup Championship Game is all about the money; that does not change the fact that this particular game was competitive most of the way, but it should be noted that each NBA Cup Championship Game has been decided by double digits: in 2023 the L.A. Lakers dominated the Indiana Pacers, 123-109, and in 2024 the Milwaukee Bucks routed the Oklahoma City Thunder, 97-81. We have not come close to seeing an NBA Cup Championship Game being decided on a buzzer beater.

I enjoyed watching and writing about the NBA Cup games, but I would enjoy the NBA even more if the league got rid of tanking and load management while also figuring out how to have a competitive, entertaining All-Star Game instead of the travesty that the NBA All-Star Game has become for the past several years.

Labels: , , , , , , , ,

posted by David Friedman @ 2:20 AM

2 comments

Thursday, October 23, 2025

Victor Wembanyama Dominates as Spurs Rout Mavericks in Cooper Flagg's First Regular Season Game

With all due respect to the other players on the Dallas Mavericks and San Antonio Spurs, we know the two reasons why these non-playoff teams from the 2024-25 season faced each other in ESPN's first telecast of the 2025-26 season: 2024 Rookie of the Year Victor Wembanyama and 2025 number one overall draft pick Cooper Flagg. Wembanyama led both teams in scoring (40 points), rebounding (15), and blocked shots (three) as his Spurs routed the Mavericks, 125-92, and he put himself in very distinguished company in two different ways. He set the franchise record for most points scored in a season opener--and that franchise history includes Hall of Famers George Gervin, David Robinson, and Tim Duncan; also, since the NBA began tracking individual turnovers during the 1977-78 season, four players have had a game with at least 40 points, at least 15 rebounds, and no turnovers: Moses Malone (twice), Shaquille O'Neal (three times), Anthony Davis (three times), and Victor Wembanyama. 

The most impressive and striking thing about how Wembanyama played is that he is noticeably bigger and stronger than he was last season, enabling him to attack the paint and eschew the long jumpers that he shot too frequently during his first two seasons. Being able to make outside shots and handle the ball on the perimeter are nice bonus features for the 7-4 Wembanyama, but the foundation of his greatness must be dominating the paint at both ends of the court--that will be his pathway to winning individual awards while lifting his team from the Draft Lottery to the playoffs. 

Stephon Castle, the 2025 Rookie of the Year, had a strong game (22 points, seven rebounds, game-high six assists), and could form a powerful duo with Wembanyama--and that could be a strong trio after former All-Star De'Aaron Fox returns from injury. Spurs' rookie Dylan Harper had a solid debut with 15 points on 7-14 field goal shooting.

The Spurs have enough talent, versatility, and experience to end their six year playoff drought, and this game was a good step in that direction. 

Flagg struggled to score, finishing with 10 points on 4-13 field goal shooting. As a versatile forward cast into an unfamiliar role as the starting point guard, he had no assists and three turnovers. The one positive is that he grabbed 10 rebounds. Charles Barkley--part of the award-winning TNT pre-game and post-game crew transferred to ESPN--said at halftime that the Mavericks are doing Flagg a disservice by playing him at point guard. Kenny Smith agreed, and noted that at point guard Flagg is being asked to pass to players who are not as good at scoring as he is. Barkley and Smith are correct that there is a big difference between being a skilled passer--which Flagg is--and playing the point guard position. I am not a fan of trying to convert versatile forwards into guards in their rookie seasons; it did not work well with Kevin Durant, and it is unlikely to work well with anyone else. Flagg must first learn how to play his natural forward position in the NBA before he learns how to play a new position. 

There is also a big difference between playing well in Summer League or preseason and playing well in the regular season. Despite his first game struggles, Flagg will be fine, but anyone who thinks that even the best college team would have a chance against the worst NBA team should note the huge gap between the college game--where Flagg was just the consensus Player of the Year--and the NBA game; the NBA game features much better players (and coaches) than the college game. 

Anthony Davis led the Mavericks in scoring (22 points) and rebounding (13), but he shot just 7-22 from the field and was outplayed by Wembanyama both overall and when they were matched up. P.J. Washington (17 points on 7-11 field goal shooting) was the only other Dallas player who scored more than 10 points. The Mavericks obviously missed the injured Kyrie Irving--who will not play until at least January 2026--and Daniel Gafford, who has a sprained ankle but is expected to return to action soon; however, even with those two players out, the Mavericks should not have lost by 33 points at home. Starting center Dereck Lively II was a non-factor with four points, two rebounds, and five fouls in just 10 minutes of action. Future Hall of Famer Klay Thompson was invisible (10 points on 4-13 field goal shooting), and the talented but inconsistent D'Angelo Russell (six points on 1-6 field goal shooting) reminded everyone why Dallas is his fourth team in the past four seasons.

Gafford's return, switching Flagg to his natural position, and playing with more energy collectively should help the Mavericks avoid more blowout losses.

Labels: , , , , , ,

posted by David Friedman @ 9:46 AM

0 comments