Tony Allen Leads All-Defensive Team Voting, Larry Sanders Snubbed for Center Spot Despite Receiving More Votes than Marc Gasol
Tony Allen and LeBron James each received 25 First Team votes for the All-Defensive Team; the NBA's 30 head coaches select the All-Defensive First and Second Teams by position and are not allowed to vote for their own players. A First Team vote is worth two points, while a Second Team vote is worth one point. Allen received three Second Team votes, meaning that only one coach did not select Allen (since Allen's Coach Lionel Hollins is not permitted to choose Allen). Allen's 53 points pace this year's All-Defensive Team. James received one Second Team vote and thus finished with 52 points. James also finished second (to Marc Gasol) in the Defensive Player of the Year voting, which is conducted among media members; Allen finished fifth in the Defensive Player of the Year voting.
Serge Ibaka is the other All-Defensive First Team forward (17 First Team votes, 12 Second Team votes), while Chris Paul (15 First Team votes, seven Second Team votes) completes the First Team backcourt. Tyson Chandler and Joakim Noah each earned 24 points, so they split the First Team center spot; Chandler received nine First Team votes and six Second Team votes, while Noah received eight First Team votes and eight Second Team votes.
The All-Defensive Second Team consists of forwards Tim Duncan and Paul George, center Marc Gasol and guards Avery Bradley and Mike Conley.
The NBA's official press release states that Larry Sanders finished with 16 points (including four First Team votes); it is not clear why he is not listed as the Second Team center over Marc Gasol, who earned 12 points (five First Team votes, two Second Team votes). Sanders is designated as a center at the Milwaukee Bucks' official website and at every other website/publication that I have seen.
Another irregularity in the press release is that only 149 of the 150 First Team votes are noted; the listed point totals correctly add up to 450 (30 coaches multiplied by five positions multiplied by two points for each First Team vote and one point for each Second Team vote), so apparently whoever put the press release together neglected to account for one of the First Team votes by listing it in parentheses next to the name of the player who received that vote. Also, although the voting is supposed to be done by position, the listed First Team votes do not add up properly. Forwards received 56 First Team votes (LeBron James 25, Serge Ibaka 17, Paul George seven, Tim Duncan three, Luol Deng one, Kenneth Faried one, Nic Batum one, Metta World Peace one) instead of 60. Since Sanders received four First Team votes it really looks like the coaches and the NBA wrongly classified Sanders as a forward. Guards received 60 First Team votes. Centers Chandler (nine), Noah (eight), Gasol (five), Dwight Howard (three) and Roy Hibbert (two) received 27 First Team votes. Those numbers--56 votes for forwards, 60 votes for guards, 27 votes for centers, four votes for Sanders--add up to 147, with the one uncounted vote pushing the total to 148.
The other two First Team votes belong to Andre Iguodala; it is not clear how the voters and/or the NBA categorized Iguodala but regardless of whether one correctly lists Iguodala as a guard (Danilo Gallinari is Denver's starting small forward) or whether one lists Iguodala as a forward (he can play that position, though he mainly played guard this season) the positional numbers still do not add up to 60, 60, 30 (i.e., two First Team forwards, two First Team guards and one First Team center on each ballot) the way that they should. Perhaps these concerns seem trivial but--unless Sanders has suddenly changed positions or unless the listed vote totals are wrong--the NBA should issue a correction and award Sanders All-Defensive Second Team status over Gasol.
As usual,
my All-Defensive Team selections closely mirrored the coaches' choices. The coaches agreed with three of my First Team picks (Allen, Ibaka, James) and six of my 10 choices overall--seven if in fact Sanders actually was voted as the Second Team center even though the press release does not list him as such. I left Avery Bradley and Joakim Noah off of my team because they missed 32 and 16 games respectively; I don't see how Bradley is a valid choice after missing nearly half of the season. I chose Thabo Sefolosha (who finished just four points behind Conley) and Roy Hibbert instead of Bradley and Noah.
I don't understand why the coaches picked Chandler over Hibbert. Chandler made the All-Defensive Second Team last season but this season his individual numbers are slightly worse (6.5 defensive rebounds per game in 2012 plus 1.4 bpg; 6.6 defensive rebounds per game in 2013 plus 1.1 bpg) and the New York Knicks' team defense is worse: the Knicks ranked 10th in defensive field goal percentage in 2012 but dropped to 19th this season and they dropped from 18th to 25th in defensive rebounding, though they did improve slightly (from 11th to seventh) in points allowed. Hibbert and Gasol clearly had more impact defensively both in terms of their individual statistics and in terms of their teams' defensive statistics.
Previous Articles About All-Defensive Team Voting
Interesting Contrasts Between All-Defensive Team Voting and Defensive Player of the Year Voting (2012)
Bryant and Garnett Each Earn All-Defensive First Team Honors for the Ninth Time (2011)
Analyzing the Votes for the All-Defensive Team and the All-NBA Team (2010)
Howard, Bryant Lead All-Defensive Team Voting (2009)
Labels: Avery Bradley, Chris Paul, Joakim Noah, Larry Sanders, LeBron James, Marc Gasol, Mike Conley, Paul George, Serge Ibaka, Tim Duncan, Tony Allen, Tyson Chandler
posted by David Friedman @ 5:43 PM
Mark Cuban Has Transformed Mavericks into Mav-Wrecks
In the summer of 2011, the Dallas Mavericks swept the two-time defending NBA champion L.A. Lakers and then
dismantled the much ballyhooed Miami Heat to win the franchise's first title. Few teams had the right combination of size, speed, defensive tenacity and offensive firepower to beat both the Lakers (who featured Kobe Bryant on the wing plus two seven footers inside) and the Heat (who featured three of the top 15 players in the NBA, including LeBron James, the consensus best player). However, instead of keeping the core group together and trying to win a repeat title, Dallas owner Mark Cuban elected to not retain the services of starting center Tyson Chandler, dynamic reserve guard J.J. Barea and defensive specialist DeShawn Stevenson. The Mavericks dropped from the third seed in the West in 2011 to the seventh seed in the West in 2012 before being swept by the Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round of the playoffs. Prior to this season, the Mavericks let starting point guard Jason Kidd and valuable sixth man Jason Terry seek greener pastures in New York and Boston respectively. Dirk Nowitzki and Shawn Marion are the only players from the 2011 championship team's nine man playoff rotation who still play for Dallas. The Mavericks are currently tied for 12th-13th in the 15 team Western Conference, six and a half games behind Denver for the eighth and final playoff spot.
Cuban let Chandler, Barea and Stevenson go in order to clear salary cap space to acquire Dwight Howard. Strike one--Howard ended up with the L.A. Lakers. Similarly, Cuban did not keep Kidd and Terry because he hoped to woo Deron Williams to come back to Texas, where Williams grew up. Strike two--Williams elected to stay with the Brooklyn Nets (for whom he has hardly looked like a franchise player). Dallas would have a better record this season if Nowitzki had not missed 27 games due to injury but even with a fully healthy Nowitzki the Mavs do not resemble a legitimate championship contender. Nowitzki recently expressed frustration with the way that Cuban broke up a proven roster purely on the wish/assumption that Dallas could sign a big-time free agent: "I always liked to think you don't want to build your franchise on hope."
All of the players who Cuban let walk are still productive: Chandler and Kidd are starters for a New York team that has the second best record in the Eastern Conference, Terry is a solid sometime starter/sometime reserve for Boston, Barea is a spark plug off of the bench for an improving Minnesota team that is challenging for a playoff spot and Stevenson has started 14 games for a surprisingly good Atlanta team. Dallas is supposedly one of the NBA teams that uses "advanced basketball statistics" to make personnel and lineup decisions but--whatever rationale Cuban used--the choice to break up the Mavericks right after the greatest season in franchise history has backfired; the Mavericks are squandering the final years of Nowitzki's career and do not have a clear plan of succession for the post-Nowitzki era.
Labels: Dallas Mavericks, DeShawn Stevenson, Dirk Nowitzki, J.J. Barea, Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, Mark Cuban, Tyson Chandler
posted by David Friedman @ 5:23 PM
2012 Team USA Report Card
After the 2008 Olympics, I wrote a Team USA report card using the following methodology:
Players are listed in order of minutes played because that statistic provides a hint about Coach Mike Krzyzewski's evaluation...It should go without saying--but I'll say it anyway--that it is not meaningful to compare a player's numbers in 40 minute games played under FIBA rules with his numbers in 48 minute games played under NBA rules...
The grades listed below represent how well a particular player filled his respective role on the team; obviously, some players had bigger roles than others, so a bench player's "B" does not mean the same thing as a starter's "B." Production when games were close is given a heavier weight than production that took place after the victories were already well in hand.I applied the same methodology when issuing these grades for Team USA's 2012 squad. Overall Olympic statistics for all 12 players are listed in parentheses after each player's name, while the three game elimination round statistics are provided right before the grades for each of the top six players in the rotation. Each player appeared in all eight Olympic games except for Anthony Davis, who did not play in
Team USA's 99-94 win over Lithuania.
Kevin Durant (26.0 mpg, 19.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 2.6 apg, 13 steals, five blocked shots)
Durant led the Olympics in total points scored by one point (156-155) over Argentina's Manu Ginobili and he broke Spencer Haywood's 44 year old Team USA record for most points scored in a single Olympics; Durant finished second in scoring average to Australia's Patrick Mills, who poured in 21.2 ppg in his six games. Durant shot a blistering .523 from three point range but he only shot .417 (15-26) on two pointers; this is a reversal of his MVP performance in the 2010 FIBA World Championship, when he shot a still excellent .456 from three point range while shooting .632 (48-76) on two pointers. In the Olympics, Durant filled the role of designated long distance sniper, assassinating opposing teams as punishment for packing their defenders in the paint. Durant also played a very solid floor game, ranking second on the team in rebounding, second in steals and fourth in assists.
Elimination round statistics: 21.0 ppg, 6.0 rpg, .7 apg, .444 overall FG%, .438 3FG%
Grade: "A"
Chris Paul (25.8 mpg, 8.3 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 5.1 apg, 20 steals, zero blocked shots)
Paul led the Olympics in steals and ranked third in assists (second on the team behind LeBron James); as those numbers suggest, he did an excellent job both distributing the ball on offense and pressuring the ball on defense. This team did not need or expect him to score the way that he does in the NBA but, as usual, Paul was very efficient when he shot the ball (.510 field goal percentage, including .464 from three point range).
Elimination round statistics: 9.3 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 4.0 apg, .500 overall FG%, .455 3FG%
Grade: "A"
LeBron James (25.1 mpg, 13.3 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 5.6 apg, 11 steals, two blocked shots)
James was the consensus MVP of the Olympics, filling up all boxscore categories and proving to be a matchup nightmare on both ends of the court at all five positions; he played center in Team USA's deadliest lineup, a "small" unit featuring Durant at power forward alongside Kobe Bryant, Chris Paul and either Deron Williams or Carmelo Anthony. James shot .603 from the field, doing most of his damage in the paint; he shot just 6-20 (.300) from three point range. James led Team USA in assists while ranking third in scoring, rebounding and steals; his elimination round statistics--which include
the first triple double by a Team USA player in Olympic competition--are even more impressive.
Elimination round statistics: 16.0 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 7.7 apg, .594 FG%, .250 3FG%
Grade: "A"
Deron Williams (18.0 mpg, 9.0 ppg, 1.5 rpg, 4.6 apg, four steals, one blocked shot)
Williams inexplicably struggled with his two point shot (10-27, .370) but he shot 13-32 (.406) on three pointers, had an even better assist/turnover ratio than Chris Paul and he averaged more minutes than any other bench player. Williams padded some of his numbers during a few of Team USA's blowout wins and he only played 10 minutes in the gold medal game.
Elimination round statistics: 10.0 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 3.0 apg, .348 FG%, .438 3FG%
Grade: "B-"
Carmelo Anthony (17.8 mpg, 16.3 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 1.3 apg, four steals, zero blocked shots)
Anthony bounced back to some extent from a subpar 2008 Olympics--when he shot just .422 from the field--but his numbers are tremendously skewed by
his Team USA record 37 point shooting exhibition against an overmatched Nigeria team; in the other seven games, Anthony averaged 13.3 ppg while shooting .471 from the field and .382 from three point range--a solid performance but far short of the 21.2 ppg on .613 field goal shooting (including .578 from three point range) that Anthony produced during the 2007 FIBA Americas Championship when some people asserted that Anthony is a perfect fit as a stretch four in FIBA play. Anthony is a shoot first player--in both NBA and FIBA competition--who can rebound when he is so inclined but is indifferent at best defensively. When he shot well he provided instant offense but it is noteworthy that when the score was close he was often on the bench; he scored just eight points on 3-9 field goal shooting versus Spain in the gold medal game as Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Kobe Bryant and Chris Paul did the heavy lifting.
Elimination round statistics: 14.3 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 2.0 apg, .457 FG%, .381 3FG%
Grade: "B-"
Kobe Bryant (17.5 mpg, 12.1 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 1.3 apg, nine steals, zero blocked shots)
Bryant struggled with his two point shot (13-31, .419) but he connected at a .436 clip from three point range and he led the team in free throw shooting (.909, 10th in the Olympics and third among players who attempted at least 20 free throws). Other than his two point field goal percentage, Bryant did everything the coaching staff wanted and expected for him to do; Bryant ranked fourth on the team in scoring and steals, he still pressured the ball on defense, he still delivered points against top opposition when necessary and he was almost always on the court whenever the score was close late in the game. Bryant ranked second on the team in scoring during the elimination round games, including a team-high 20 points in the quarterfinal victory over Australia. Coach Krzyzewski drastically limited Bryant's minutes in blowouts, so Bryant did not have the opportunity to pad his numbers the way that some of his teammates did but Bryant performed very well in the elimination round and he finished his undefeated Team USA career (26-0 in three FIBA events, not including exhibition play during which Team USA was also undefeated with Bryant on the roster) with 17 points on 5-10 field goal shooting in the gold medal game. Bryant was clearly the lead dog on Team USA from when he joined the team in 2007 until very recently but he adjusted well to James' ascension as the best overall player on the team.
Elimination round statistics: 16.7 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 2.0 apg, .471 FG%, .522 3FG%
Grade: "A"
Kevin Love (17.0 mpg, 11.6 ppg, 7.6 rpg, .4 apg, two steals, two blocked shots)
Love's role significantly increased since 2010, when he only averaged 8.8 mpg in the FIBA World Championship. He carved out a nice niche for himself as a rebounder off of the bench, tying Pau Gasol for the overall tournament lead with 61 rebounds and pacing Team USA with a 7.6 rpg average. Love did not start a game but he had a bigger impact on the team than starting center Tyson Chandler. Love will likely never be as valuable or productive in FIBA play as he is in the NBA because he is not a mobile FIBA big man in the Pau Gasol/Luis Scola mold and he obviously does not possess the athletic gifts of Team USA FIBA big men LeBron James and Kevin Durant; Love earned his minutes by playing very hard and by relentlessly pursuing the ball.
Grade: "A"
Russell Westbrook (13.8 mpg, 8.5 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 1.6 apg, seven steals, zero blocked shots)
Westbrook had a much smaller role in the 2012 Olympics than he had in the 2010 FIBA World Championship when he ranked third on the team in scoring, assists and steals--but that is not a reflection on Westbrook as much as it is a reflection on just how deep and talented this squad was: the addition of James, Bryant and Paul--key members of the 2008 Olympic team who did not play for the 2010 FIBA World Championship team--understandably moved Westbrook further back in the rotation. Westbrook's main contribution during his limited minutes was to apply pressure defense against opposing point guards.
Grade: "B"
Andre Iguodala (12.1 mpg, 4.3 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 1.4 apg, five steals, five blocked shots)
Like Westbrook, Iguodala's role was vastly reduced compared to 2010; Iguodala started every game in the FIBA World Championship but that obviously was not going to happen with James and Bryant on the roster. Iguodala accumulated most of his numbers during garbage time but he was very effective whenever he played.
Grade: "A"
Tyson Chandler (11.3 mpg, 4.0 ppg, 4.0 rpg, .4 apg, three steals, four blocked shots)
Chandler's performance, though not quite as bad as his 2010 FIBA World Championship outing (when he not only lost the starting center role but eventually dropped completely out of the rotation), was mediocre at best. He rebounded adequately on a per minute basis but was not effective enough offensively or defensively to deserve significant playing time; he started every game and then promptly went to the bench either because he got into early foul trouble or just because Coach Krzyzewski preferred to use a better, more versatile player. In 2010, Chandler tied for fourth on the team in fouls committed despite only averaging 8.6 mpg and this time around he took advantage of slightly more playing time to raise his ranking to a tie for third in fouls committed. The ideal FIBA big man for Team USA--other than LeBron James and Kevin Durant--is Chris Bosh because of his mobility and versatility or Dwight Howard, who has a freakish combination of size, speed and agility; injuries prevented Bosh and Howard from playing, so Chandler inherited the center spot by default.
Grade: "C-"
James Harden (9.1 mpg, 5.5 ppg, .6 rpg, .8 apg, four steals, one blocked shot)
Harden had an excellent regular season, a very good playoffs and a forgettable NBA Finals but--short of injuries or foul trouble--there was no way that he was going to get into the rotation on this team. I gave Danny Granger an "I" for "incomplete" in my 2010 FIBA World Championship report card and Harden essentially filled the same garbage time role for this team.
Grade: "I"
Anthony Davis (7.6 mpg, 3.7 ppg, 2.7 rpg, zero assists, one steal, three blocked shots)
Davis, who could very well have a prominent role in the future for Team USA, served as the human victory cigar in the 2012 Olympics but this was a valuable experience for him that could yield dividends for both his NBA and FIBA careers.
Grade: "I"
Final Thoughts:
During the five game
pre-Olympic exhibition tour, Coach Krzyzewski tinkered with his rotation but he used the same starting lineup throughout the Olympics: LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant, Chris Paul and Tyson Chandler.
The original, one and only Dream Team faced no serious competition in 1992--but just eight years later Team USA only beat Lithuania 85-83 in the Olympic semifinal round and only led France 76-72 with 4:26 left in the gold medal game before winning 85-75. Team USA failed to win the gold medal in the next three major FIBA events (2002 FIBA World Championship, 2004 Olympics, 2006 FIBA World Championship) before Jerry Colangelo got the program back on track; the additions of Kobe Bryant and Jason Kidd upgraded the backcourt defensively and provided the right championship mindset for the team. Coach Krzyzewski did not know the games of all of Greece's players nor could he figure out how to contain Greece's screen/roll actions in Team USA's
101-95 loss in the 2006 FIBA World Championship but that has turned out to be the only blemish in his FIBA coaching career. Team USA cannot just show up with any coach and any 12 players and expect to win FIBA events but Colangelo has put together a program that should be able to sustain success even as new players (and possibly a new coach) are brought on board in the future.
The conclusion from my 2010 Team USA report card is still valid and relevant today:
"While I enjoyed watching this team play, it is hilarious to read/listen to much of the mainstream commentary about FIBA play in general and Team USA in particular; we are consistently told that in order to win in FIBA events you have to have big men and you have to have shooters, despite the fact that both of these contentions have repeatedly been refuted: Team USA's winning recipe consists of stingy defense--particularly versus screen/roll plays and versus opposing three point shooters--forcing turnovers and scoring in transition. Team USA's halfcourt offense will never be as smooth or sophisticated as the halfcourt offenses of the other elite FIBA teams, true back to the basket big men are not as valuable as versatile, mobile forwards who can face the basket offensively and guard multiple positions defensively and the ability to hit three point shots is not nearly as important as the ability to defend against opposing three point shooters; reread the preceding sentence and you will understand why Michael Redd and Carlos Boozer hardly played for the 2008 version of Team USA and why Stephen Curry and Tyson Chandler reprised those players' respective roles on the 2010 version of Team USA--but I have no doubt that prior to the 2012 Olympics we will once again hear "experts" declaring how important it is for Team USA to add shooting specialists and big men to the roster."
****************
Further Reading2008 Team USA Olympics Report CardKevin Durant Leads the Way as Team USA Wins FIBA World Championship for First Time Since 1994Labels: Andre Iguodala, Anthony Davis, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, James Harden, Kevin Durant, Kevin Love, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Russell Westbrook, Tyson Chandler
posted by David Friedman @ 4:46 PM
Team USA's 12 Man Roster is Officially Announced
Injuries and the aging process prevented USA Basketball from completely putting the 2008 band back together but the 2012 version of Team USA that will compete in the London Olympics includes a strong mixture of five Olympic veterans and five FIBA World Championship veterans plus two young talents who will provide athleticism and scoring punch. Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Chris Paul, Carmelo Anthony and Deron Williams played on
the 2008 gold medal-winning U.S. Olympic team, while Kevin Durant, Tyson Chandler, Russell Westbrook, Andre Iguodala and Kevin Love
won gold medals for Team USA during the 2010 FIBA World Championship. Blake Griffin and James Harden are the newcomers who will provide firepower off of the bench.
James and Anthony will join David Robinson (1988, 1992, 1996) as the only men to play three times for Team USA in the Olympics. Bryant, Paul and Williams will add their names to the somewhat longer but still quite distinguished list of two-time U.S. Olympic basketball players: Charles Barkley (1992, 1996), Carlos Boozer (2004, 2008), Patrick Ewing (1984, 1992), Burdette Haldorson (1956, 1960), William Hougland (1952, 1956), Michael Jordan (1984, 1992), Jason Kidd (2000, 2008) Robert Kurland (1948, 1952), Karl Malone (1992, 1996), Chris Mullin (1984, 1992), Gary Payton (1996, 2000), Scottie Pippen (1992, 1996), Mitch Richmond (1988, 1996) and John Stockton (1992, 1996).
The 39 year old Kidd, who owns a 46-0 record as a member of two Olympic gold medalists and three FIBA Americas Championship squads (1999, 2003, 2007), previously announced his retirement from international play (and likely would not have been selected for this year's roster in any case); injuries prevented 2008 Olympians Dwight Howard, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh and 2010 FIBA World Championship veteran Derrick Rose from participating this time.
It will be very interesting to see how Coach Mike Krzyzewski distributes starting honors and--more importantly--minutes. Durant, the three-time reigning NBA scoring champion and 2010 FIBA World Championship MVP, may not even start for this team; James, Bryant and Paul are almost certainly locks to start, Chandler is the only true center on the roster and Anthony--
despite his poor shooting and inconsistent play--started all eight games for the 2008 squad (though he often ended up on the bench during crunch time). Chandler played so poorly in the 2010 FIBA World Championship that he not only failed to hold on to the starting center job but
he eventually fell out of the rotation completely, averaging just 8.6 mpg during the event, so perhaps that will influence Coach Krzyzewski to go "small" from the outset with James at center, Anthony at power forward, Durant at small forward and Bryant and Paul in the backcourt. It is certainly possible that Coach Krzyzewski will experiment a bit with his starting lineup and his overall rotation during Team USA's exhibition games/pre-Olympic tour. Love indicated that Coach Krzyzewski plans to use him almost exclusively at center.
FIBA basketball has different rules, a different playing/officiating style and a different rhythm from NBA basketball, so some players who look great in NBA play may be plagued by foul trouble and/or just generally seem out of sorts during FIBA competition. Love has emerged as a great NBA player but he was a non-factor--other than in garbage time--during the 2010 FIBA World Championship and Griffin is a good candidate to lead this squad in fouls per minute due to his aggressive style combined with FIBA's eccentric officiating. Harden seemed to lose his game and his confidence during the 2012 NBA Finals, so it will be interesting to see if the changes of venue and rules bring him back to life or if he stays in his slump.
Team USA will obviously rely on quickness and athleticism and if Team USA has the proper "attention to detail" (as Bryant put it shortly after the announcement of the final roster) then they should be able to overwhelm most of the teams that they will face; Team USA's main weakness--a lack of size, specifically a dearth of true back to the basket centers--could be exploited by teams that do not turn the ball over, keep the pace of the game slow and pound the ball inside to skilled big men.
Despite what countless "experts" will proclaim, the deciding factor for Team USA will not be lack of size or how well Team USA shoots from behind the arc; Team USA has several players who play and rebound "bigger" than their size and Team USA should be able to score so well in transition that three point shooting will not be a huge part of their offensive repertoire. The key for Team USA to win in FIBA events is to play suffocating defense and shut down the opposing team's three point shooters without getting broken down for layups in the screen/roll game. In the 2008 Olympics, Team USA held opposing teams to .403 field goal shooting and .299 three point field goal shooting. Those are the two most important statistical categories to monitor as Team USA chases gold in London.
Labels: 2012 Team USA, Andre Iguodala, Blake Griffin, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, James Harden, Kevin Durant, Kevin Love, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Russell Westbrook, Tyson Chandler
posted by David Friedman @ 11:26 PM
Interesting Contrasts Between All-Defensive Team Voting and Defensive Player of the Year Voting
Media members vote for the NBA's Defensive Player of the Year Award, while the league's head coaches select the All-Defensive First and Second Teams (coaches are not permitted to choose players from their own squads). There were some interesting differences in the specific choices made by the media and coaches this season.
Tyson Chandler narrowly defeated Serge Ibaka to win the Defensive Player of the Year Award, 311-294; players receive five points for a first place vote, three points for a second place vote and one point for a third place vote. Chandler's name appeared on 81 out of 121 ballots while Ibaka's name appeared on 82 ballots but the difference was that Chandler received 45 first place votes while Ibaka received 41. Dwight Howard, who won the award the previous three seasons, finished a distant third, followed by Kevin Garnett, Tony Allen, Andre Iguodala, Shawn Marion, Luol Deng and Josh Smith; except for Smith, each of those players received at least one first place vote.
Media members can be easily swayed by compelling narratives (hopefully they are not influenced by who speaks with them on a given day or who gives them the best quotes) and the two narratives that apparently influenced the Defensive Player of the Year voting are (1) Tyson Chandler "changed the culture for the New York Knicks" (even though the Knicks
were not any better this season than they were last season) and (2) Dwight Howard is annoyingly wishy washy and did not always play hard (even though he ranked third in the league in bpg, led the league in defensive rebounds for the fifth year in a row, tried to play with a ruptured disk in his back that ultimately required surgery and was the defensive linchpin for an Orlando team that does not have any other above average individual defensive players). In my
2012 NBA Awards article I explained why Howard should win the award, with James finishing second and Ibaka placing third.
The All-Defensive Teams are selected by position, so the raw voting totals cannot be directly compared with the Defensive Player of the Year voting totals, but the coaches did not value Chandler quite as highly as the media members did. Dwight Howard earned the First Team nod at center with 16 First Team votes and nine Second Team votes, while Chandler received Second Team honors. LeBron James received the most overall votes and was the only player chosen by every coach (24 First Team votes, five Second Team votes). Ibaka received the second most votes overall and joined James as a First Team forward. Chris Paul and Tony Allen are this year's First Team guards.
Kobe Bryant's streak of six straight All-Defensive First Team selections was snapped but he made the Second Team along with Rajon Rondo, Chandler and forwards Kevin Garnett and Luol Deng. Andre Iguodala actually outpointed Bryant 19-17 (First Team votes are worth two points, while Second Team votes are worth one point) but Iguodala presumably did not make the squad due to positional designation (Iguodala is a forward and he received one fewer point than Deng).
For the fourth time in the past five seasons,
the coaches selected eight of the 10 players who I selected for the All-Defensive First and Second Teams (last season the coaches and I agreed on six of the 10 choices). The only difference between my First Team this season and the coaches' First Team is that I chose Grant Hill (who received one First Team vote from the coaches but did not get enough overall points to make the squad) while the coaches picked Chris Paul, who I put on my Second Team. The coaches and I both "demoted" Bryant to the Second Team but I chose Iguodala as a Second Team forward and I did not pick Rondo at all. My reasoning for leaving out Garnett is that he did not excel early in the season at forward and that even though he played very well for the rest of the season as a center he did not have more defensive impact at that position than Howard and Chandler did. While Garnett did perform at an All-Defensive Team level, he did not do so at forward and in this instance the lack of adherence to positional designations cost Iguodala. Hill is nominally a small forward but I put him at guard because he often defended point guards so that Steve Nash could "guard" the weakest perimeter scoring threat on the opposing team.
The "stat gurus" only know what their spreadsheets tell them--and their spreadsheets can only reflect back the biases that went into creating those spreadsheets--so each year around this time there is a torrent of articles declaring that NBA coaches do not have a clue about defense, which is a funny assertion considering that the coaches have to game plan for each team in the league and thus have at least some notion about which defenders cause problems for their teams.
Labels: Chris Paul, Dwight Howard, Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Luol Deng, Rajon Rondo, Serge Ibaka, Tony Allen, Tyson Chandler
posted by David Friedman @ 3:05 PM
Kevin Durant Leads the Way as Team USA Wins FIBA World Championship for First Time Since 1994
FIBA World Championship MVP Kevin Durant capped off a spectacular tournament with a game-high 28 points plus five rebounds to carry Team USA to an 81-64 gold medal game victory over Turkey. Durant set Team USA FIBA World Championship records for points in a tournament (205) and scoring average (22.8 ppg) while shooting .556 from the field (including .456 from three point range) and .912 from the free throw line. In Team USA's 89-74 semifinal win versus Lithuania, Durant set a Team USA single game FIBA World Championship record with 38 points. The seemingly effortless way that Durant scored at will throughout this event was remarkable to watch and was reminiscent of how Brazilian legend Oskar Schmidt poured in points in FIBA play during his prime years.
I concluded my
FIBA World Championship preview article with this statement:
Team USA can win the gold medal if they play smart and tenacious defense, force turnovers and score a lot of points in transition--but even if this team plays the best basketball that they are capable of playing they will probably have at least one or two close games; it should not surprise anyone if Team USA fails to win the FIBA World Championship.
Team USA followed the above prescription en route to posting a 9-0 record in the tournament but--as I expected--they had to survive a couple close games: they slipped by Brazil 70-68 in the third game of the preliminary round after the Brazilians missed a potentially tying shot at the buzzer and they trailed as late as midway through the second quarter in the quarterfinal game versus Russia before prevailing 89-79.
Team USA's defensive execution was inconsistent during the early part of the tournament but they used their depth, their athleticism and Durant's scoring punch to get victories. They hit their collective stride defensively in the elimination portion of the event but even at that stage I think that depth was an underrated factor in their success; while Durant was far and away the best player on Team USA, the other main players in the rotation were largely interchangeable (at least in terms of their overall impact in a FIBA setting): opposing teams could often hang with Team USA in the early going but when both teams went to their benches Team USA experienced little or no drop off while the opposing teams became significantly less effective.
After the 2008 Olympics, I
authored a report card containing grades for each of Team USA's players. Here is how I explained my methodology:
Players are listed in order of minutes played because that statistic provides a hint about Coach Mike Krzyzewski's evaluation...It should go without saying--but I'll say it anyway--that it is not meaningful to compare a player's numbers in 40 minute games played under FIBA rules with his numbers in 48 minute games played under NBA rules...
The grades listed below represent how well a particular player filled his respective role on the team; obviously, some players had bigger roles than others, so a bench player's "B" does not mean the same thing as a starter's "B." Production when games were close is given a heavier weight than production that took place after the victories were already well in hand.
Using those same standards, here are my grades for the 2010 version of Team USA:
Kevin Durant (28.2 mpg, 22.8 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 1.8 apg, 13 steals, six blocked shots)
Durant led Team USA in scoring, three point field goal percentage and free throw percentage, he ranked second in both rebounding and steals and he tied for second in blocked shots. No opposing player had the right combination of foot speed and length to be able to guard him effectively; the only method that has a chance versus Durant is to play him very physically (a la Ron Artest in the first round of the 2010 NBA playoffs) and it is surprising that Team USA's opponents did not try that approach more consistently: frankly, while it is true that Durant made some very impressive one on one moves, it is stunning how often Team USA's opponents left Durant open for face up jumpers--particularly since Eric Gordon was the only other regular member of the rotation who was consistently making jump shots.
Grade: "A"
Chauncey Billups (23.1 mpg, 9.8 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 3.1 apg, 11 steals, zero blocked shots)
"Mr. Big Shot" looked like "Mr. Brick Shot" for much of this event: his .391 overall field goal percentage was the worst on the team and he fired up the second most three point attempts despite shooting just .318 (seventh on the team) from long range--and FIBA's "long range" (20 feet, six inches) is actually a midrange NBA jumper. As an All-Star and former NBA Finals MVP, Billups was supposed to be a stabilizing force for his younger, less experienced teammates but instead he seemed to be channeling the shot selection of his NBA teammate J.R. Smith; Billups attempted more than twice as many three pointers as two pointers, a ratio only approximated by Eric Gordon--but Gordon was this team's version of Vinnie "Microwave" Johnson off of the bench (particularly against weaker opponents), while Billups was misfiring from all angles regardless of how closely he was being guarded or how much time remained on the shot clock. Billups scored 19 points on 5-7 three point field goal shooting versus overmatched Angola but he had just four points and missed all five of his field goal attempts in the gold medal game versus Turkey. In the semifinal game versus Lithuania, Billups scored three points on 1-5 three point field goal shooting. Billups scored 15 points on 4-8 three point field goal shooting in the quarterfinal game versus Russia. One out of three may get you into the Baseball Hall of Fame but one good game out of three in the final stanza of this event when you are supposed to be one of the team's leaders is hardly impressive.
Billups ranked second on the team in scoring and assists, he had the best assist/turnover ratio among the team's primary ballhandlers and he played solid defense against bigger, slower opponents (though he struggled versus quick guards); those are the reasons that he started every game and played relatively heavy minutes but he was not nearly as efficient as he should have been as a scorer.
Grade: "B-/C+"
Derrick Rose (23.1 mpg, 7.2 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 3.2 apg, 10 steals, three blocked shots)
Rose led the team in assists but after playing very well in the first four games of the preliminary round he slumped in the next four games, culminating in a scoreless performance versus Lithuania during which he played just 12 minutes and was benched for the entire fourth quarter. He struggled to make outside shots and could not find his way to the hoop as consistently or as effectively as Russell Westbrook did.
Grade: "C-"
Lamar Odom (22.0 mpg, 7.1 ppg, 7.7 rpg, .4 apg, five steals, six blocked shots)
As I predicted in my preview article, Odom led Team USA in rebounding. Despite all of the talk about Odom's versatility, the reality is that the one skill set area in which he is significantly above average is rebounding. He is an erratic shooter (and therefore an inconsistent scorer) and his ballhandling decisions are at times questionable (leading to offensive fouls or other turnovers) but there is no doubt that he is a very good rebounder and he did yeoman's work for Team USA despite playing out of position as the starting center. One of Odom's best contributions to Team USA is that he attempted just four three pointers, making three of them; he is not a great outside shooter, so he showed good judgment with his shot selection.
ESPN's Fran Fraschilla heaped praise on Odom throughout the tournament, particularly during the final two games. There is no question that Odom played very well versus Lithuania (13 points, 10 rebounds) and Turkey (15 points, 11 rebounds); in those games he not only did excellent work on the boards but he emerged as the second scoring option behind Durant, connecting on drives, putbacks and cuts to the hoop. However, his 28 points in those two games nearly matches his scoring output in the first six games (36 points). Odom only had four total assists, though it must be noted that he made some outstanding outlet passes that fueled fastbreak scoring opportunities.
Odom is an excellent complementary player because he understands and accepts his role, something that proved to be as true when he played for Team USA as it is when he plays for the Lakers.
Grade: "B+"
Russell Westbrook (19.4 mpg, 9.1 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 2.6 apg, 12 steals, four blocked shots)
Westbrook ranked third on the team in scoring, assists and steals despite not starting a single game. There were extended stretches when he was Team USA's most effective guard. In contrast to Billups, Westbrook did not pad his stats against Angola but he scored in double figures in each of the final three games, though his two point field goal percentage versus Russia and Turkey was not great. Westbrook drew Fraschilla's ire sometimes for missing dunks or attempting flashy plays but overall he had a very positive impact off of the bench, providing a change of pace (literally and figuratively) that opposing teams could not match.
Grade: "B+"
Andre Iguodala (18.8 mpg, 5.7 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1.9 apg, 16 steals, zero blocked shots)
Iguodala started every game at small forward and he emerged as the team's designated defensive stopper on the perimeter. Like Odom, he wisely limited his three point attempts (seven, making just two of them) and he pretty much restricted his shot attempts to dunks and layups. He led the team in steals and ranked fourth in rebounding. Iguodala is used to dominating the ball as an NBA player but he adjusted very well to being a complementary player for Team USA.
Grade: "B+"
Eric Gordon (17.6 mpg, 8.6 ppg, 1.6 rpg, .6 apg, eight steals, two blocked shots)
Gordon's main role on this team was to hit open jumpers, particularly from three point range, and he did an excellent job, ranking fourth on the team in scoring, second in three pointers made and second in three point shooting percentage despite not starting a game and ranking just seventh in minutes played. However, Gordon did most of his damage versus Tunisia (21 points) and Angola (17 points) while making very minimal contributions in the final three games, scoring six, three and zero points against Russia, Lithuania and Turkey respectively. He did what he was asked to do but his lack of production versus the top teams in the most important games lowers his grade.
Grade: "B-"
Rudy Gay (13.4 mpg, 7.0 ppg, 2.9 rpg, .8 apg, nine steals, eight blocked shots)
Gay is the kind of athletic, versatile forward who is perfectly suited for FIBA play and that is why in my preview I suggested that he could be an X factor for Team USA. He started out strongly with double figure scoring efforts in the first two preliminary round games but he did not score in double figures again except for the Angola game. Minutes were a bit hard to come by for him at times because he could not match Durant's scoring or Odom's rebounding.
Grade: "B-"
Stephen Curry (10.6 mpg, 4.6 ppg, 1.4 rpg, 2.1 apg, four steals, zero blocked shots)
I love watching Stephen Curry play and his father
Dell Curry is one of my favorite non-superstar NBA players of all time--but it was quite predictable that Stephen Curry would have a small role for Team USA. As I have repeatedly stated in my articles about FIBA play, contrary to popular belief it is not necessary or desirable to stock Team USA's roster with players whose primary and/or exclusive skill is three point shooting; the FIBA three point shot is a midrange NBA shot anyway and it is much more important for Team USA's perimeter players to be able to defend and to be able to handle the ball against pressure than it is for them to be able to hit spot up shots.
Curry almost got whiplash a few times as he watched quicker guards drive around him and on other occasions he had some trouble defending screen/roll sets, either ending up out of position or switching on to a bigger player and getting abused in the post.
Again, I love watching Stephen Curry and I think that he has a great NBA future but Coach Krzyzewski's substitution patterns tell you all you need to know about Curry's role on this team: Curry played double figure minutes in the first game versus Croatia and in the blowout wins versus Iran, Tunisia and Angola but he did not play at all in the nailbiter versus Brazil and he logged just five, two and seven minutes respectively versus Russia, Lithuania and Turkey.
When the "experts" say that Team USA needs shooting specialists but Coach Krzyzewski wins gold medals while deadeye shooters like Michael Redd (in 2008) and Curry ride the bench except for garbage time are you going to believe the "experts" or are you going to believe Coach Krzyzewski?
Grade: "B-"
Kevin Love (8.8 mpg, 5.7 ppg, 4.9 rpg, .8 apg, three steals, one blocked shot)
Fraschilla repeatedly raved about Love but I never quite understood the fuss; before the tournament I predicted that Love would "put up impressive per minute statistics during garbage time" and that is exactly what he did. Although I was not correct that he would be the team's 12th man (he logged 11 more total minutes than Granger and played two more total minutes than Chandler), Love--like Curry--saw very little action against the top teams: Love played just five minutes versus Brazil, three minutes versus Russia, eight minutes versus Lithuania and one minute versus Turkey.
I like Love as an NBA player and I think that he will be a better pro than many people originally predicted but the prototypical FIBA big man is lithe and mobile (Chris Bosh, Kevin Durant, Lamar Odom, Rudy Gay), two words that do not accurately describe Love.
I am sure that "stat gurus" everywhere are salivating over Love's per minute numbers and wondering why he did not play 30 mpg but I'll trust my own eyes and Coach Krzyzewski's judgment over "advanced statistics" that are the product of Love's garbage time production against inferior opponents.
Grade: "A" (again, keep in mind that the grade is based on production relative to one's role, so this does not mean that I am equating Love with Durant)
Danny Granger (9.7 mpg, 4.1 ppg, .9 rpg, 1.0 apg, one steal, one blocked shot)
As I expected, Granger did not crack the regular rotation and most of his minutes came in garbage time--in two of the nine games he did not play at all. I don't see how to fairly give him any grade other than "incomplete."
Grade: "I"
Tyson Chandler (8.6 mpg, 2.6 ppg, 2.7 rpg, .4 apg, two steals, five blocked shots)
Chandler was probably the most disappointing player on the team. Despite being the only true center on the roster he not only failed to hold on to the starting center spot but he dropped out of the main rotation entirely as Coach Mike Krzyzewski elected to go predominantly with a "small" lineup--a strategic decision that I predicted in my preview article, though I still thought that Chandler would be part of the regular rotation.
Despite his limited minutes, Chandler tied for fourth on the team in fouls committed. He failed to provide much of a presence defensively or on the glass and, as usual, his offensive repertoire was largely restricted to point blank shots.
Grade: "D"
Final thoughts:
I analyze NBA games from an objective perspective, not as a partisan fan, but as an American I am happy that Jerry Colangelo, Coach Krzyzewski and a dedicated corps of players (the 2008 Olympians plus the current members of Team USA) have helped USA Basketball earn respect not only by winning gold medals but by doing things the right way on and off the court. Basketball was invented in America, so it was embarrassing to go a decade and a half without winning the sport's world championship, but the exemplary way that this team conducted itself en route to the gold medal wipes out the horrible memories of the desultory performances of previous editions of Team USA (with the nadir being the sixth place finish in the 2002 FIBA World Championship held in Indianapolis, Indiana).
While I enjoyed watching this team play, it is hilarious to read/listen to much of the mainstream commentary about FIBA play in general and Team USA in particular; we are consistently told that in order to win in FIBA events you have to have big men and you have to have shooters, despite the fact that both of these contentions have repeatedly been refuted: Team USA's winning recipe consists of stingy defense--particularly versus screen/roll plays and versus opposing three point shooters--forcing turnovers and scoring in transition. Team USA's halfcourt offense will never be as smooth or sophisticated as the halfcourt offenses of the other elite FIBA teams, true back to the basket big men are not as valuable as versatile, mobile forwards who can face the basket offensively and guard multiple positions defensively and the ability to hit three point shots is not nearly as important as the ability to defend against opposing three point shooters; reread the preceding sentence and you will understand why Michael Redd and Carlos Boozer hardly played for the 2008 version of Team USA and why Stephen Curry and Tyson Chandler reprised those players' respective roles on the 2010 version of Team USA--but I have no doubt that prior to the 2012 Olympics we will once again hear "experts" declaring how important it is for Team USA to add shooting specialists and big men to the roster.
Labels: 2010 Team USA, Andre Iguodala, Chauncey Billups, Danny Granger, Derrick Rose, Eric Gordon, Kevin Durant, Kevin Love, Lamar Odom, Rudy Gay, Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry, Tyson Chandler
posted by David Friedman @ 4:26 AM
Team USA Faces Major Challenge in FIBA World Championship
The FIBA World Championship begins on August 28. This competition rarely receives much publicity in the United States but for many basketball-minded nations it is very important, equal to--if not even greater than--the Olympics in terms of prestige; American kids who play basketball dream of winning an NBA championship but kids in other countries dream of leading their homeland to the FIBA World Championship title.
The significance of this year's FIBA World Championship for Team USA is that the winner receives an automatic bid for the 2012 Olympics (Team USA
captured the 2008 Olympic gold medal but the previous Olympic champion is not guaranteed a spot in the next Olympic games); if Team USA does not win the FIBA World Championship then the United States will have to qualify for the Olympics by playing in the 2011 FIBA Americas tournament and that could be a dicey proposition if the NBA endures a strike/lockout: during the 1998 lockout, the U.S. fielded a team of non-NBA players that worked very hard but only managed to win a bronze medal in the 1998 FIBA World Championship (after the lockout ended, Gary Payton, Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett and Tim Hardaway led Team USA to a 10-0 sweep in the 1999 FIBA Americas Tournament to qualify for the 2000 Olympics). It is extremely unlikely that a Team USA squad consisting entirely of non-NBA players could win the FIBA Americas Tournament in 2011, so if Team USA fails to win the FIBA World Championship and the NBA suffers the work stoppage that many people are anticipating then the United States may not send a basketball team to the 2012 Olympic Games for just the second time ever (the first time was when the U.S. boycotted the Moscow Olympics in 1980 to protest the Soviet Union's invasion of Afghanistan).
Team USA sent the "A" team to the 2008 Olympics--including Kobe Bryant (the sport's best all-around player), 2000 Olympic gold medalist Jason Kidd (who has never lost a game in FIBA play), LeBron James (who subsequently won two NBA MVPs) and 2006 NBA Finals MVP Dwyane Wade--but for a variety of reasons none of the members of the so-called "Redeem Team" will be participating in this year's FIBA World Championship; this year's squad is headlined by Kevin Durant, who has never played for the national team before. Durant, Chauncey Billups, Danny Granger and Derrick Rose are the only members of the team who have ever been NBA All-Stars, while only Durant and Billups have made the All-NBA Team. Billups and Lamar Odom are the only Team USA players who have won an NBA championship. This year's team lacks star power, championship experience and FIBA experience.
Team USA has historically not fared well in this event, finishing first just three times in 15 FIBA World Championship appearances (in contrast, the U.S. men's national basketball team has captured 13 of a possible 17 Olympic gold medals); the last U.S. team to earn a FIBA World Championship gold medal was the 1994 squad (the so-called "Dream Team II") led by a star-studded cast including Shaquille O'Neal (18.0 ppg, 8.5 rpg), Reggie Miller (17.1 ppg, .526 3FG%), Dominique Wilkins (12.6 ppg) and Joe Dumars (12.6 ppg). After that came the lockout-depleted 1998 team that earned a bronze medal, the embarrassingly inept 2002 team that finished sixth despite enjoying homecourt advantage (in Indianapolis) and the 2006 team that settled for a bronze medal despite featuring some big name players (including LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Paul and Chris Bosh) who have been in the news for various reasons this summer.
In a September 4, 2007 article titled
The Real Story Behind Team USA's Losses in Previous FIBA Events, I refuted some misconceptions about why the United States suffered humiliating defeats in the 2002 FIBA World Championship, the 2004 Olympics and the 2006 FIBA World Championship. The points that I made in that article are still relevant regarding Team USA's prospects this time around:
1) Most FIBA teams rely on the ability to drive to the hoop, draw in the defense and then kick the ball out to open three point shooters. In order to be successful, Team USA's guards must control dribble penetration. Also, Team USA's defense must be "on a string" when opposing teams run screen/roll actions, because otherwise their opponents will either shred Team USA with wide open layups or bombard them from three point range.
2) It is certainly a nice luxury for Team USA to shoot well from three point range but it is far more important to shut down opposing three point shooters without compromising the interior defense; this requires communication, discipline and hustle, because otherwise at least one player will be out of position and the whole defense will fall apart, something that was a recurring theme during Team USA's dreary performances in 2002, 2004 and 2006.
FIBA play is more physical than NBA play, particularly on the perimeter; expect to see opposing teams be very physical with Durant, who did not fare well in the first round of the 2010 NBA playoffs versus Ron Artest's bump and run defense. No FIBA team has an individual defender who is as skilled and as strong as Artest but the FIBA rules allow for a lot more contact than NBA rules do so it will not be easy for Durant to rack up 25-30 ppg while shooting a good percentage from the field and he likely will not be granted as many free throw attempts per game as he receives in the NBA.
Tyson Chandler is the only true center on the roster but I am not very concerned about Team USA being outrebounded or having a lot of trouble defending the post; Team USA is athletic enough to compete with anyone on the glass and the nature of the FIBA game (the wide lane and the general style of play) is such that it is very unlikely that opposing teams will just pound the ball into the low post. Team USA will certainly go "small" for a significant percentage of the time, putting Lamar Odom or another forward at the center spot.
NBA TV's Steve Smith declared that Odom is the second most important player on the team (behind only Durant) but, with all due respect to Smith's basketball acumen and Odom's skill set, if that turns out to be true then Team USA will settle for the bronze medal again. Derrick Rose has to be the team's second best player and he will have to be the go-to player in clutch situations if the opposing team smothers Durant. Rudy Gay may not be the third best NBA player on the roster but his size and athletic ability should enable him to have an impact from either forward spot; he could prove to be a real X-factor and should be one of the team's leading scorers after Durant. Chauncey Billups will likely be the other starting guard alongside Rose and the team will rely on him for calm, veteran leadership, rugged defense and timely three point shots. Odom's primary responsibility for Team USA will be the same as it is for the Lakers: rebounding. Odom may very well lead Team USA in that department. Other than that, Odom needs to monitor his shot selection (i.e., stop shooting three pointers and long jumpers) and cut down on his turnovers (he had a 6-3 turnover/assist ratio during the four game exhibition tour).
Andre Iguodala started all four exhibition games at small forward but he shot just .333 from the field and .125 from three point range, bringing back (bad) memories of Richard Jefferson's performance during the 2004 Olympics (Jefferson started all eight games despite shooting just .321 from the field and .261 from three point range). Iguodala should be a valuable player because he can score, pass and defend but it remains to be seen how well he will adjust to the FIBA game.
Eric Gordon's ability to both shoot and defend could earn him a key spot in the rotation but it will be difficult for him to supplant Billups or Rose; likewise, Russell Westbrook's athleticism could be valuable but there are only so many possible minutes at the guard spots (keep in mind that FIBA games last 40 minutes, not 48).
Stephen Curry will be this team's version of Michael Redd on the 2008 Olympic team: the dead-eye three point shooter who mainly gets in the game when--or, in this team's case, if--Team USA has a comfortable lead. Curry actually is a better all-around player than Redd, though, and his ability to play both guard positions could help him to carve out a slightly larger role than Redd had two years ago.
Danny Granger played sparingly during the exhibition tour and he struggled with his shot, so even though he has been an All-Star it will probably be difficult for him to move up the depth chart at this point.
Kevin Love is the designated 12th man, a rebounder/passer who will put up impressive per minute statistics during garbage time.
The nightmare scenario for Team USA (other than an injury or foul trouble sidelining Durant) is for an opponent to carve them up with screen/roll plays, hit a high percentage of three point shots and use physical defense to frustrate finesse wing players such as Durant and Gay. Team USA's players are mostly young and inexperienced and could get that "deer in the headlights" look if an opposing team hits them with a 10-0 run. Team USA lacks a lock down perimeter defender--a role that Bryant filled brilliantly in the 2008 Olympics--and does not have a defined go-to scorer other than Durant.
Team USA can win the gold medal if they play smart and tenacious defense, force turnovers and score a lot of points in transition--but even if this team plays the best basketball that they are capable of playing they will probably have at least one or two close games; it should not surprise anyone if Team USA fails to win the FIBA World Championship.
Labels: 2010 Team USA, Andre Iguodala, Chauncey Billups, Danny Granger, Derrick Rose, Eric Gordon, Kevin Durant, Kevin Love, Lamar Odom, Rudy Gay, Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry, Tyson Chandler
posted by David Friedman @ 2:10 AM
Injuries Heavily Impact First Round
Injuries can change the fortunes even of a team that seemed destined to capture the NBA championship; for instance, in 1972-73 the Boston Celtics--who would win titles in 1974 and 1976--cruised to the best record in the NBA (68-14, eight games in front of their closest pursuers) but after Hall of Famer/Top 50 selection
John Havlicek separated his shoulder the New York Knicks eliminated the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals.
This season, injuries have profoundly affected the playoff seeding and the first round of the playoffs. Look no further than the defending champion Celtics, who started out with a record setting 27-2 mark (including a 19 game winning streak); sans defensive anchor Kevin Garnett (and key frontcourt reserve Leon Powe), the Celtics are in a hard fought first round battle with a 41-41 Chicago team.
Out West, it is highly unlikely that the Utah Jazz would have fallen to the eighth seed--and a death match versus the powerful L.A. Lakers--if Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer had been healthier during the season; for that matter, if former All-Star Mehmet Okur had been full strength during the series with the Lakers the Jazz could have put up more resistance, though the Lakers would still certainly have been expected to prevail.
The Denver Nuggets only added four wins to their 2008 total but they vaulted from the eighth seed to the second seed largely because so many of their injury-hit rivals lurched into reverse, including the Jazz, the Spurs, the Mavericks, the Hornets and even the Suns, an
underachieving team to be sure but one that was still obviously damaged by the season-ending injury suffered by All-Star Amare Stoudemire. The Nuggets just completed a five game massacre of the Hornets, a team that last year finished second in the West and pushed the defending champion Spurs to seven games in the second round of the playoffs; with Chris Paul, Tyson Chandler and Peja Stojakovic hobbling, the Hornets simply could not keep up with the Nuggets, though the Hornets' 58 point home loss in game four is embarrassing and disgraceful.
In 2007, the Spurs won their fourth championship in nine seasons and last year they reached the Western Conference Finals but with Manu Ginobili sidelined and Tim Duncan not 100% the Spurs bowed out to the Mavericks in the first round, the Spurs' earliest playoff departure since 2000. The Mavericks got off to a horrible start this season--in part due to Josh Howard being hurt--but they are at full strength now and seem to be a formidable team, though they will have their hands full with the Nuggets, who are also deep and healthy.
The Lakers posted the best record in the West for the second year in a row even though starting center Andrew Bynum missed nearly half of the season. Most people assume that they will cruise to the Finals but their depth has been seriously compromised by several injuries: Bynum is still not 100%, Luke Walton will likely miss the rest of the playoffs and Jordan Farmar has not been the same since coming back from midseason knee surgery. If the ESPN/ABC "experts" talk this weekend about the Lakers' supposed great depth then you will know beyond a shadow of a doubt that they were not paying close attention to the first round: the Lakers' sixth man is currently Shannon Brown, a player who was 13th in playoff minutes played for the 2007 Cleveland team that advanced to the NBA Finals. The Lakers hope/expect that Bynum will play an important role in a second round matchup with Houston or Portland but he has yet to prove that he can stay healthy or that he can be a consistently productive playoff performer.
Labels: Andrew Bynum, Boston Celtics, Chris Paul, John Havlicek, Kevin Garnett, L.A. Lakers, Manu Ginobili, New Orleans Hornets, San Antonio Spurs, Tyson Chandler
posted by David Friedman @ 4:36 PM
Revisiting the Ben Wallace Signing
It seems like "everybody knows" that Chicago made a mistake signing Ben Wallace, who is rapidly becoming the poster child/scapegoat for the underachieving Bulls. However, as Sam Smith of the
Chicago Tribune points out, "It's much easier to pick the winners when the race is over." Smith adds, "I'd like to see some intellectual honesty here, though that's something of an oxymoron when it comes to sports fans and the media" and then he reminds readers of the following facts concerning the Wallace signing:
1) Wallace was the reigning Defensive Player of the Year when the Bulls acquired him.
2) He had won that award four times in the previous five seasons and had just helped the Pistons make it to game seven of the NBA Finals.
3) Wallace was brought in to replace Tyson Chandler, who at the time was the object of much fan derision and whose tendency to get into foul trouble limited his effectiveness.
4) At that time, Coach Scott Skiles was a "folk hero" for actually demanding "accountability" from Chandler, who was unable to provide it at that time.
5) Chandler's improved production with the Hornets is due in no small part to playing with a great point guard (Chris Paul), something that is still noticeably absent from the Bulls' roster--meaning that the Chandler you see in New Orleans is not likely the one you'd have seen if he had remained a Bull.
6) If Chicago had not signed Wallace the other choices were Nazr Mohammed and Joel Przybilla.
7) At the time of the Wallace deal, few if any dissenting voices were heard (that is where the whole picking the winners after the race is over deal applies--what "everybody knows" now is not what "everybody" was saying back then).
It is also worth noting that with Wallace at center the Bulls swept the defending champion Heat and extended the favored Pistons to six games. Raise your hand if you thought that the Bulls would be this bad this season--and if your hand is in the air now, please stop lying. Although Smith primarily looks at the deal from a Chicago perspective, it is also worth considering what has happened to Detroit. The Pistons won the 2004 title and made it to the 2005 Finals with Wallace at center; since letting him go, the Pistons have yet to return to the championship round and have experimented with Mohammed, Chris Webber and Rasheed Wallace at center. It is reasonable to wonder if the Pistons left a championship or two on the table by letting Wallace go--and if you think that they did not miss him in the playoffs, then here is your assignment: pop in a tape of LeBron James dunking non-stop on Detroit as Cleveland beat the Pistons in four straight playoff games and then pop in a tape of James not being able to get to the hoop against the Spurs' backline defense anchored by Tim Duncan.
Smith concludes, "The plan with Wallace, really, was to get two good years out of him, have him tutor a young big man a third season and then move him to a team looking to get under the salary cap. It looks like the Bulls got one good season instead." It's easy for fans to play general manager after the fact and pretend that they know how to run a team but it is much more difficult to actually make these decisions in real time and under the restraints of the salary cap, which players are available and other factors that fans don't think about.
Labels: Ben Wallace, Chicago Bulls, Tyson Chandler
posted by David Friedman @ 4:05 PM
