Detroit Versus Cleveland Preview
Eastern Conference Second Round
#1 Detroit Pistons (60-22) vs. #4 Cleveland (52-30)
Season series: Tied, 2-2
Cleveland can win if…Donovan Mitchell and James Harden form a reliable 1-2 scoring punch while Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen dominate in the paint. The Cavaliers, who have looked soft at times this season, must meet force with force at both ends of the court.
Mitchell led the Cavaliers in scoring during the regular season (27.9 ppg with shooting splits of .483/.364/.865) and he led the Cavaliers in scoring during their 4-3 first round win over the Toronto Raptors (23.1 ppg with shooting splits of .438/.333/.875). The obvious differences are that both his scoring and his field goal shooting dropped precipitously from the regular season to the playoffs. His regular season scoring and field goal percentage both were just below his career high numbers (28.3 ppg and .484 field goal shooting in 2022-23), but his playoff scoring is on pace to be the second-worst of his nine postseason appearances. After scoring 32 points and 30 points as the Cavaliers won the first two games of the series, Mitchell scored 24 points or less in each of the next five games. Mitchell's playoff career has been filled with highs--including leading the league in playoff scoring in 2020 (36.3 ppg on .529 field goal shooting)--and lows, but his teams are 0-4 in second round series, which dulls the shine of his 27.8 ppg career playoff scoring average (seventh best all-time).
Harden averaged 20.6 ppg and a team-high 6.1 apg versus the Raptors, numbers that are in line with his regular season numbers in the 26 games he played with the Cavaliers (20.5 ppg, 7.7 apg)--but Harden's turnovers jumped from 3.2 tpg in the regular season with Cleveland to 5.1 tpg versus the Raptors. His playoff career includes "concert tour" field percentages, and so many games with more turnovers than field goals made that such inverted performances should be called "Hardens." He posted "Hardens" in Cleveland's losses in game three (eight turnovers, five field goals made) and game four (seven turnovers, six field goals made) versus Toronto. Harden's elimination game resume as of 2022 included a 2-9 record, .399 field goal percentage, and an average of nearly six turnovers per game, and in the next three years he added more sad lines to that resume by scoring nine points on 3-11 field goal shooting in Philadelphia's 112-88 loss to Boston in 2023, by scoring 16 points on 5-16 field goal shooting in the L.A. Clippers' 114-101 loss to Dallas in 2024, and by scoring seven points on 2-8 field goal shooting in the Clippers' 120-101 loss to the Denver Nuggets in 2025. Harden was shaky at best in his first elimination game with Cleveland (18 points on 3-9 field goal shooting, three assists), which foreshadows how he will likely perform in this series versus a team that is more talented and tougher than the Raptors.
After the Cavaliers acquired Harden in exchange for Darius Garland, I declared, "I
can write the template for the Cavaliers' 2026 elimination game loss
now, and after the game I can fill in the blanks around the words 'James
Harden disappeared' and 'James Harden scored just xxx second half
points.'" Nothing that I saw in the Toronto series made me alter the article template that I prepared for Cleveland's elimination game loss.
The Evan Mobley-Tim Duncan comparisons are delusional, but when Mobley is at his best he is one of the top big men in the league. He ranked third on the team in scoring versus Toronto (18.1 ppg) while leading the team in rebounding (8.6 rpg). Mobley is a very good player, but he is not a dominant player in the way that Duncan controlled the action at both ends of the court.
Charles Barkley often says that Jarrett Allen seems too nice, and the first six games of the Toronto series validated that observation, but Allen showed a little nastiness just in time to save the Cavaliers in game seven with a game-high tying 22 points, a game-high 19 rebounds, and a game-high three blocked shots. Allen had a double double in the third quarter alone (14 points, 11 rebounds) as the Cavaliers outscored the Raptors 38-19. Allen's dominating performance saved the day, and let Harden off the hook despite his typically erratic elimination game field goal shooting.
Detroit will win because...the Pistons are more physical than the Cavaliers and because Cade Cunningham is the best player on either team.
Cavaliers versus Pistons is the NBA's version of a "run and shoot" NFL offense versus a team that plays "ground and pound" offense while knocking you around on defense. During the regular season, the Pistons ranked 28th in three point field goals made but they finished third in field goal percentage, third in points allowed, and third in defensive field goal percentage; during the playoffs, the Pistons rank 16th (last) in three point field goals made per game, but first in points allowed and first in defensive field goal percentage. Granted, the Pistons' playoff defensive numbers are boosted by playing the Orlando Magic, who just fired coach Jamahl Mosley in no small part because of the Magic's historically inept offense, but the Pistons will pose far more challenges for the Cavaliers than the Raptors did.
Cunningham seems poised to be an MVP candidate and All-NBA Team member for years to come after averaging 23.9 ppg and 9.9 apg (second in the league) during the regular season before averaging 32.4 ppg and 7.1 apg as the Pistons defeated the Magic, 4-3. He is taller, bigger, and younger than Mitchell and Harden, and--unlike the Cavaliers' guards--he consistently plays hard on defense in addition to running the Pistons' offense.
Jalen Duren disappeared at times versus Orlando, but he came up big in Detroit's 116-04 game seven win (15 points, game-high 15 rebounds), and he averaged a team-high 9.4 rpg during the series. He is an efficient scorer (.528 field goal percentage versus the Magic) who understands his limitations (he did not attempt a three pointer in the first round). The Pistons need him to be productive versus Mobley and Allen.
Tobias Harris has made a career out of being the third option but in the first round he averaged 21.6 ppg, trailing only Cunningham. He erupted for 30 points in game seven.
Ausar Thompson provides defense, rebounding (8.7 rpg versus the Magic) and efficient scoring (8.1 ppg on .510 field goal shooting versus the Magic), while Duncan Robinson is a three point sniper whose defense is much improved.
Other things to consider: The Cavaliers fired J.B. Bickerstaff in 2024 after he led the team to the second round of the playoffs for the first time since 2018. His replacement Kenny Atkinson won the 2025 NBA Coach of the Year award after leading the Cavaliers to the Eastern Conference's best record (64-18) but the Cavaliers again lost in the second round. Meanwhile, after the Pistons hired Bickerstaff in 2024 their win total jumped from 14 to 44, and Bickerstaff finished second to Atkinson in the Coach of the Year voting. This season, the Pistons posted the Eastern Conference's best record while the Cavaliers regressed to the fourth seed. This playoff series cannot provide a definitive verdict on Cleveland's decision to replace Bickerstaff with Atkinson, but the overall trendline of the past two seasons seems to favor Detroit over Cleveland.
Speaking of coaching, it must be mentioned that both teams were pushed to seven games by lower seeded first round opponents.
Cunningham is the seventh player to have at least 30 points (team-high 32) and at least 10 assists (game-high 12) in a game seven as he led the Pistons to a comeback from a 3-1 deficit versus the eighth seeded Magic. It is not surprising that the Pistons won the series, but it is baffling that the offensively challenged Magic--who scored less than 100 points in four of the seven games--beat the Pistons three times.
The Cavaliers jumped out to a 2-0 series lead but then struggled to close out the undermanned Raptors, who finished the series without the services of leading regular season scorer Brandon Ingram (left heel injury suffered in game five) and starting point guard Immanuel Quickley (who missed the entire series with a right hamstring strain). In game seven, the Cavaliers trailed 47-38 with 2:58 remaining in the first half before tying the score at 49-49 by halftime. The Cavaliers opened the third quarter with a 9-0 run, and they maintained a double digit lead for the final 16:53 of the game thanks to strong second half performances by Allen (16 points on 5-8 field goal shooting, 14 rebounds) and Mitchell (15 points on 6-11 field goal shooting) to overcome a typical Harden disappearing act in the second half of an elimination game (eight points on 1-4 field goal shooting).
Before beating the Magic, the Pistons had not won a playoff series since 2008, while the Cavaliers have not advanced past the second round since LeBron James led them to the 2018 NBA Finals. Playoff experience matters, but when neither team has meaningful collective playoff experience other important factors have added weight. Such factors include which team has the best player, which team is more physical, which team plays better defense, and which team has homecourt advantage. The Pistons have the advantage in all of those categories.
Detroit will defeat Cleveland in six games.
Labels: Cade Cunningham, Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Jalen Durden, James Harden, Jarrett Allen, Tobias Harris
posted by David Friedman @ 2:10 PM
New York Versus Philadelphia Preview
Eastern Conference Second Round
#3 New York (53-29) vs. #7 Philadelphia (45-37)
Season series: Tied, 2-2
Philadelphia can win if…Joel Embiid stays relatively healthy and is a dominant force in the paint at both ends of the court to supplement the perimeter productivity of Tyrese Maxey, Paul George, and V.J. Edgecombe.
The 76ers came back from a 3-1 deficit to defeat the Boston Celtics 4-3 in the first round, marking the first time in franchise history that the 76ers won a series after trailing 3-1, and the first time that the 76ers defeated the Celtics in a playoff series since Julius Erving (29 points, five assists, four rebounds, three steals, and three blocked shots) and Andrew Toney (34 points, six assists) came up big in a 120-106 game seven win in the 1982 Eastern Conference Finals.
Embiid missed the first three games of the first round while he recovered from an emergency appendectomy; the 76ers went 1-2 in the games that he missed, and then went 3-1 the rest of the way. Embiid led the 76ers in scoring (28.0 ppg), rebounding (9.0 rpg) and assists (7.0 apg), and the 76ers would not have won the series without his significant contributions. The Celtics could not defend him in the paint, and he drew double teams that created easy scoring opportunities for his teammates. Embiid had a game-high 34 points and a game-high tying 12 rebounds in the 76ers' 109-100 game seven win. He also had six assists and just one turnover. Embiid producing in the clutch is a bit of a surprise, because he has a 6-7 career playoff series record, including 0-5 in second
round series. His career playoff field goal percentage is .458,
significantly worse than his career regular season field goal percentage
(.500), and his scoring declines similarly from the regular season
(27.6 ppg) to the playoffs (25.1 ppg)
Embiid is the 76ers' most dominant player, while Maxey is the team's most consistent and reliable player. During the regular season, Maxey set career highs in scoring (28.3 ppg), assists (6.6 apg), rebounds (4.1 rpg), and steals (1.9 spg) while leading the NBA in minutes (38.0 mpg). He is averaging 40.9 mpg in the playoffs, and he led the league in playoff mpg (44.5) during the 2024 playoffs. Maxey scored 30 points on 11-18 field goal shooting while playing 45 minutes in game seven, and he looked as fresh at the end of the game as he did at the beginning. He led the 76ers with seven assists while also contributing 11 rebounds and committing just one turnover.
V.J. Edgecombe added 23 points, six rebounds, and four assists in game seven, and he averaged 15.1 ppg during the series. Paul George chipped in 13 points in game seven, and he ranked third on the team in scoring (17.4 ppg) during the series while also playing strong defense.
New York will win because...the Knicks have enough size to reasonably contain Embiid without double teaming so often that the 76ers' perimeter players consistently get open shots. The Knicks also have good perimeter defensive players, and they have a new offense with Karl-Anthony Towns operating as the hub while Jalen Brunson works off of the ball more often than he has since joining the Knicks, similar to the way that he played alongside Luka Doncic with the Dallas Mavericks.
The Knicks trailed the Atlanta Hawks 2-1 in the first round before winning the next three games in dominant fashion, culminating in a complete dismantling of the Hawks in game six: the Knicks raced to the biggest
halftime lead in NBA playoff history-- 83-36--en route to a 140-89 win.
The Knicks led by as much as 61 points, and set franchise records for
most points in a playoff game and largest victory margin in a playoff
game.
Brunson led the Knicks in scoring (26.3 ppg) and assists (6.2 apg) versus the Hawks, and OG Anunoby ranked second in scoring (21.5 ppg) and third in rebounding (8.7 rpg) while shooting .611 from the field, but an argument could be made that Towns was the most valuable player: he led the Knicks in rebounding (11.3 rpg) and blocked shots (1.7 bpg), ranked second in assists (6.0 apg), and finished third in scoring (18.7 ppg) with shooting splits of .569/.444/.927. Towns, who never had a playoff triple double prior to 2026, had triple doubles in games five (20 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists) and seven (12 points, 11 rebounds, 10 assists). Towns' previous playoff career-high for assists had been six.
The Knicks are averaging 117.8 ppg in the playoffs, and if they can keep up that pace versus the 76ers then they will wear down and wear out Embiid.
Other things to consider: Prior to this season, the Knicks fired coach Tom Thibodeau after he led the team to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2000. Owner James Dolan has made it clear that anything less than a championship will not be considered successful or acceptable. There is obviously a lot of pressure on coach Mike Brown and his players to fulfill Dolan's lofty expectations, but the Knicks are certainly capable of at least reaching the NBA Finals; beating the Oklahoma City Thunder--or a team good enough to eliminate the Thunder--will be a daunting task, though.
The Knicks have an excellent defense, and a good offense that improved dramatically in the latter portion of the series versus the Hawks. Their roster is deeper and more well-balanced than the 76ers' roster.
The 76ers received a major break when Jayson Tatum, who led the Celtics in rebounding (10.7 rpg) and assists (6.8 apg) while ranking second in scoring (23.3 ppg) during the series, was a late scratch for game seven because of left knee stiffness. Without Tatum's presence in the paint at both ends of the court, the 76ers outrebounded the Celtics 42-34 after the Celtics outrebounded the 76ers in the first six games of the series. The Knicks lead the playoffs in rebounding differential (+9.0), while the 76ers rank 14th out of 16 playoff teams (-6.6); the 76ers' number is a little deceptive because it includes three games without Embiid, but even with Embiid in the lineup the Knicks should--and must--win the rebounding battle.
In game seven, the Celtics shot 13-49 (.265) from three point range, and repeatedly failed to attack Embiid defensively. Embiid has never been in peak physical condition, and despite his strong performance in the latter part of this series it was evident that he was fatigued. He also was often hobbling on unsteady legs, and the Celtics should have used his vulnerability to their advantage by isolating him in screen/roll actions and then forcing him to slide his feet; this would have further fatigued him, and possibly put him in foul trouble.The Knicks should attack Embiid and make him work on defense--and they have the personnel to do that both in the direct center to center matchup with Towns or backup center Mitchell Robinson, and on switches if they can force Embiid to guard Brunson.
New York will defeat Philadelphia in six games.
Labels: Jalen Brunson, Joel Embiid, Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks, OG Anunoby, Paul George, Philadelphia 76ers, Tyrese Maxey
posted by David Friedman @ 2:16 PM
Oklahoma City Versus L.A. Lakers Preview
Western Conference Second Round
#1 Oklahoma City (64-18) vs. #4 L.A. Lakers (53-29)
Season series: Oklahoma City, 4-0
L.A. can win if…the Lakers win the possession game by cutting down on turnovers and by outrebounding the Thunder. The Lakers rank 15th out of the 16 playoff teams in turnovers committed, while the Thunder rank first, and the Thunder also rank first in turnover differential; the Thunder excel at both taking the ball away on defense (ranking third in the playoffs in steals per game) and protecting the ball on offense, while the Lakers do not protect the ball well and are mediocre at best at taking the ball away (ranking ninth in steals per game). The Thunder rank fifth in the playoffs in rebounding differential (3.8), while the Lakers rank eighth (0.0). If the Lakers do not significantly improve in the possession game then they will have to shoot an extraordinarily high percentage from the field or make a lot of free throws just to keep the games close.
The Lakers were correctly considered underdogs in the first round versus the fifth seeded Houston Rockets because injuries kept Luka Doncic out for the entire series (grade 2 left hamstring strain) and sidelined Austin Reaves until game five (grade 2 oblique strain)--but that was before Kevin Durant was a late scratch for game one with a right knee contusion. Durant, who averaged 26.0 ppg on .520 field goal shooting in 78 regular season games, played in just one game as the Lakers eliminated the Rockets in six games; he scored 23 points on 7-12 field goal shooting in game two, which the Lakers won, 101-94, as the other Rockets scored 71 points on 29-77 (.377) field goal shooting. Durant sprained his ankle during game two and did not play again in the series, so it is not surprising that the Rockets rank 15th in playoff scoring (98.7 ppg), ahead of only the Orlando Magic--who should be called the -rland- Magic (i.e., they have no "O") after averaging 98.3 ppg, including scoring just 19 points in the second half of their 93-79 game six loss to the Detroit Pistons while missing 27 of their final 28 field goal attempts. Only Orlando's record-setting offensive futility kept the Rockets from having the least productive offense in the 2026 NBA playoffs.
While it is fair to say to some extent that the bricklaying Rockets were the architects of their own demise, the Lakers deserve some credit, too, starting with LeBron James. It is not hyperbole to say that James is the greatest 41 year old NBA player ever. He averaged 20.9 ppg, 7.2 apg, and 6.1 rpg during the regular season, and his only concession to age is that he missed 22 games. James improved those numbers to 23.2 ppg, 8.3 apg, and 7.2 rpg versus the Rockets, leading the Lakers in scoring and assists while ranking second in rebounding.
Reaves averaged 18.5 ppg and 4.0 apg in two games, but he shot just .367 from the field. Rui Hachimura increased his scoring from 11.5 ppg in the regular season to 15.8 ppg versus the Rockets, and he led the Lakers with 17 three point field goals while shooting .586 from beyond the arc. Deandre Ayton grumbled about his role during the season, averaging 12.5 ppg and a team-high 8.0 rpg, and he posted similar numbers versus the Rockets (11.8 ppg, team-high 10.8 rpg). Marcus Smart (14.7 ppg, 13 three point field goals made, .486 3FG%) was a key contributor at both ends of the court versus the Rockets after scoring just 9.3 ppg with a .331 3FG% during the regular season.
Oklahoma City will win because...Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be the best player in the series and because the Thunder's depth and defensive tenacity will overwhelm the Lakers.
Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 33.8 ppg, 8.0 apg, and 3.8 rpg with shooting splits of .551/.313/.898 during the first round as the Thunder swept the Phoenix Suns. Chet Holmgren averaged 17.3 ppg, a team-high 8.5 rpg, and a team-high 2.0 bpg versus the Suns. Isaiah Hartenstein provided power in the paint with 11.0 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 1.0 bpg, and a team-high .714 FG%. Jalen Williams averaged 20.5 ppg, 5.0 apg, and 4.0 rpg in two games versus the Suns but will miss at least the start of this series due to a grade 1 left hamstring strain. Ajay Mitchell picked up some of the scoring slack by averaging 15.0 ppg, but he shot just .364 from the field.
The Thunder are the highest scoring team in the playoffs (122.8 ppg), and their 17.3 ppg scoring differential is second behind the Knicks (17.5 ppg), whose numbers are a bit distorted by their historic 140-89 game six rout of the Atlanta Hawks. The Thunder also rank second in the playoffs behind the Knicks in field goal percentage (.487).
Neither the offense that the Lakers ran against the Rockets nor the defense that they played against the Rockets will be nearly good enough to contend with the Thunder.
Other things to consider: The Thunder have been the class of the NBA for the past two years, posting the best regular season record in back to back seasons and capturing the NBA title last season. Although the Thunder were pushed to seven games in two of their four playoff series last year, they did not falter under pressure and became the second youngest team to win an NBA title.
Gilgeous-Alexander swept the MVP awards last season (regular season, Western Conference Finals, NBA Finals), and he could very well match that feat this season.
In contrast, this is just the second time that the Lakers advanced past the first round since 2020, when they won the "bubble title." The Lakers spent most of this season relying on their high octane offense fueled by the scoring/playmaking prowess of Doncic, Reaves, and James--who for the first time in his career willingly accepted not just a secondary role but a tertiary role. Without Doncic and with Reaves limited, the Lakers relied on James to run the offense; the Lakers fell from 116.3 ppg on a league-leading .502 field goal percentage in the regular season to 101.2 ppg on .474 field goal shooting versus the Durant-less and offensively challenged Rockets, but the Thunder both score and defend much better than the Rockets. If Doncic were available and at full strength, maybe the Lakers could steal a game or two, but this version of the Lakers cannot keep pace with the Thunder, even if Jalen Williams does not play.
Oklahoma City will defeat L.A. in four games.
Labels: Austin Reaves, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Luka Doncic, Oklahoma City Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
posted by David Friedman @ 12:39 AM
