20 Second Timeout

Stephen Curry's Late Three Point Barrage Leads Team USA to 98-87 Olympic Gold Medal Game Win Over France

"What is easy is seldom excellent."--Samuel Johnson

Stephen Curry scored a team-high 24 points--including 12 points in the final 2:47--as Team USA held off a resilient France to win 98-87 and earn a fifth straight Olympic gold medal game victory. The 11 point final margin belies how competitive this contest was. Team USA was clinging to an 82-79 lead with 3:09 left in the fourth quarter after Victor Wembanyama's putback dunk, but then Curry hit four three pointers in a 2:12 span to save the day. Curry had a game-high +20 plus/minus number and five assists. In the first four games of the Olympics, Curry scored just 29 points and he only shot 5-20 (.200) from three point range, but in two games of medal round play versus Serbia and France he tallied 60 points while shooting 17-26 (.654) from beyond the arc. 

Kevin Durant--who started for the first time for Team USA in 2024--added 15 points, four rebounds, and four assists. He is the first American male basketball player to win four Olympic gold medals. Devin Booker also scored 15 points, and he had six rebounds, three assists, and the game's second best plus/minus number (+18). 

LeBron James capped off an excellent Olympics with another great all-around performance, scoring 14 points, grabbing six rebounds, and dishing for a game-high 10 assists. He joined Curry and Booker as the only players with double digit plus/minus numbers (+17). James averaged 14.2 ppg, 6.2 rpg, and 8.5 apg in the 2024 Olympics, earning MVP honors for the event. James headlines an Olympics All-Star Five that includes Curry, Victor Wembanyama (France), Nikola Jokic (Serbia), and Dennis Schroder (Germany).

No other American player scored in double figures, but Anthony Davis had an impact with eight points, a game-high nine rebounds, and a game-high four blocked shots.

Only four Team USA players played at least 20 minutes: James (32), Durant (31), Curry (30), and Booker (28). Derrick White and Tyrese Haliburton did not play. Haliburton never had a significant role for Team USA, but White ranked sixth on Team USA in minutes played during pool play before falling out of the rotation in medal round play.

Joel Embiid started at center alongside James, Durant, Curry, and Booker, but he finished with just four points in 11 minutes. He did not make a field goal, and he spent much more time on the bench inciting the French crowd than on the court contributing to the win. His decision to play for Team USA instead of France turned out well for him, and he can thank Curry, Durant, James, and Booker for adding a gold medal to a trophy case that is otherwise bereft of team championships. Considering his lack of productivity versus France, it would have been hilarious if the fans had chanted at him in French the familiar taunt that is directed toward players who are helping the opposing team at least as much as they are helping their own team: "He with us!" 

Jayson Tatum's playing time--or lack of playing time--has been a big story, and in the gold medal game he scored two points in 11 minutes with a -5 plus/minus number. He is one of the five best players in the NBA, but he did not fit in with Coach Steve Kerr's game plan or rotation.

Victor Wembanyama scored a game-high 26 points on 11-19 field goal shooting. Guerschon Yabusele muscled his way to 20 points on 6-14 field goal shooting. Nando De Colo was the only other French player who scored in double figures (12 points). Evan Fournier runs hots and cold as a shooter, and in this game Team USA held him to eight points on 3-10 field goal shooting. France's rotations and substitution patterns were interesting, to put it mildly. Nic Batum played 25 minutes--third most on the team--despite having a plus/minus number (-20) that was -11 worse than any other French player. He led France in rebounding (eight rebounds) and assists (four) so he was productive, but when he was in the game France hemorrhaged points. In contrast, Rudy Gobert played just 12 minutes despite having a +3 plus/minus number. Plus/minus numbers can be noisy in small sample sizes, but Gobert had a positive impact with his defense, rebounding, and screen setting, so a case could be made that he earned more playing time.

In the past several years, France has consistently proven to be a worthy opponent for Team USA. Team USA beat France 87-82 in the gold medal game of the 2020 Olympics (played in 2021) after losing to France 83-76 in the first game of pool play. France also defeated Team USA 89-79 in the 2019 FIBA World Cup.

This game proved to be no different, as it was competitive from the jump ball until the final buzzer.

James opened the scoring with a two-handed fast break dunk, and Wembanyama answered with a three pointer. Team USA led 12-11 at the 4:52 mark of the first quarter when the first substitutions were made, including Davis checking in for Embiid, and Fournier and Gobert entering for France. Tatum checked in for Durant at the 4:12 mark, when the score was still 12-11.

Team USA led 20-15 at the end of the first quarter while holding France to 1-9 three point field goal shooting, and Team USA extended that margin to 24-17 on two inside baskets by Davis. France countered with an 8-0 run to go up, 25-24. James put Team USA up 26-25 with a driving layup, but Team USA was not able to pull away. Yabusele cut Team USA's lead to 40-36 by posterizing James and then completing the three point play after James was called for a blocking foul. Team USA countered with a Curry three pointer followed by Booker's fast break layup and free throw after being fouled on the drive. Team USA led by double digits (46-36) for the first time. Yabusele's layup off of a Wembanyama feed just before the halftime buzzer trimmed Team USA's lead to eight, 49-41. 

Yabusele led France with 15 first half points, while Wembanyama had 13 points, five rebounds, and two assists. Booker was Team USA's only double figure scorer (13 points). James had seven points, five rebounds, and two assists. Team USA shot 9-20 (.450) from three point range in the first half while holding France to 3-16 (.188) three point field goal shooting.

Team USA began the third quarter with a 7-2 run in less than two minutes, and eventually widened the lead to 14 points (61-47), but just when it seemed like Team USA might pull away, Wembanyama hit a three pointer to pull France to within 65-56 at the 4:05 mark. After a timeout, both teams had multiple empty possessions before Fournier's three pointer cut Team USA's lead to 65-59. James answered with a three pointer to put Team USA up 68-59, and Team USA soon pushed the lead to 72-61, but France scored five points in the final 23 seconds to trail just 72-66 heading into the fourth quarter. Team USA had seven turnovers in the third quarter.

Curry did not score in the first 7:13 of the fourth quarter before pouring in 12 of Team USA's 26 fourth quarter points. Team USA led 80-69 with less than seven minutes to go but could not sustain their double digit lead. For most of the fourth quarter, Team USA's offense featured sloppy ballhandling and missed shots, and France had outscored Team USA 13-10 in the final stanza before Curry heated up.

Team USA won the rebounding battle 37-33, but committed 17 turnovers compared to France's 13 turnovers. The key, as is often the case for Team USA in FIBA competitions, was that Team USA held France to 9-30 (.300) three point field goal shooting. As a bonus, Team USA shot 18-36 (.500) from beyond the arc. Curry did most of the long range damage with his 8-12 three point field goal shooting. 

Winning a gold medal under any circumstances is a tremendous accomplishment. Team USA was the prohibitive favorite and in the end they got the job done--but it is worth remembering that Team USA's roster included four members of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team (James, Durant, Curry, Davis)--and this was almost certainly the last Olympics appearance for at least three of those four players. If Team USA needs that kind of overwhelming talent advantage on paper just to beat Serbia and France in very competitive games, then what foundation is Team USA building--either on this roster, or on the U19 and younger teams--for future FIBA success?

Curry's end of the game three point heroics were incredible--he zigged and zagged through France's defense like a video game character--but this is not a sustainable recipe for FIBA success because (1) this is almost certainly his last FIBA competition and (2) no one else can do what he did. If Team USA's formula for future FIBA success is going to be "Keep the game close and have one dude go ballistic for two minutes from three point range" then Team USA is going to struggle to win more gold medals versus countries that play team ball instead of hero ball. The formula for sustained FIBA success for Team USA is putting together a roster that plays stifling defense and then turns those defensive stops into transition scoring opportunities. It is fine--but not necessary--for some of those transition scoring opportunities to be three pointers, but the four late three pointers that Curry made are a testament to his individual greatness, not great game planning or ball movement.

As a Team USA fan, Curry's awesome late game shooting was exciting, but as an analyst/historian I wonder what is Team USA's plan for the future. 

Labels: 2024 Olympics, France, Guerschon Yabusele, Joel Embiid, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Team USA, Victor Wembanyama

posted by David Friedman @ 10:06 PM

7 comments

Team USA Overcomes 17 Point Deficit to Defeat Serbia, 95-91

Team USA outscored Serbia 32-15 in the fourth quarter to escape with a 95-91 win that punched their ticket to a gold medal game matchup with France on Saturday. Stephen Curry scored a game-high 36 points, one short of Team USA's single game Olympics record--but Curry had his best Olympics performance in a highly competitive game, while Carmelo Anthony scored 37 points in a blowout win versus Nigeria in 2012. Curry shot 12-19 from the field (including 9-14 from three point range), and he had a game-high +20 plus/minus number. 

Joel Embiid had his best all-around game as a member of Team USA, scoring 19 points on 8-11 field goal shooting. He had seven fourth quarter points. LeBron James logged just the fourth triple double in the Olympics since the 1970s (when rebounds and assists began to be tracked consistently), and he is the only player since the 1970s with two Olympics triple doubles. James finished with 16 points, a game-high 12 rebounds, and a team-high 10 assists. 

Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton did not play, while Anthony Edwards, Anthony Davis, Bam Adebayo, and Derrick White each played 13 minutes or less. With Team USA staring elimination in the face, the players who Coach Steve Kerr trusted the most were Curry (33 minutes), James (32 minutes), Embiid (26 minutes), Devin Booker (24 minutes), Kevin Durant (24 minutes), and Jrue Holiday (20 minutes). 

Bogdan Bogdanovic led Serbia with 20 points, while Nikola Jokic had 17 points, a game-high 11 assists, and five rebounds. Aleksa Avramovic scored 15 points on 5-8 field goal shooting, and he led Serbia's long range attack with 4-6 three point shooting. Team USA only outrebounded Serbia 34-33, and Team USA committed 10 turnovers compared to Serbia's seven turnovers.

It was evident from the opening tip that playing Serbia in the medal round is nothing like playing Brazil, the team that Team USA routed in the first game of medal round play. Serbia dominated Team USA for the first three quarters, leading 31-23 at the end of the first quarter and pushing the margin to 17 (42-25) before settling for a 54-43 halftime lead. It must be emphasized that Serbia controlled the game despite Curry putting on an incredible shooting exhibition, starting with 14 points in the first 3:38 of the game and 17 points overall in the first quarter; what wins for Team USA is not three point shooting or highlight plays, but rather stingy defense leading to transition scoring opportunities--and Team USA did not play that way until very late in the game.

Team USA trimmed the deficit to six, 65-59, on a Holiday three pointer with 3:30 remaining in the third quarter, but then Serbia countered with an 11-2 run to go up 76-61 with just :32 left in the third quarter. The momentum shifted at the 7:19 mark of the fourth quarter when Jokic committed his fourth foul while Serbia led, 78-70; in FIBA play, five fouls result in disqualification, so Jokic could not be as aggressive the rest of the way. On one fourth quarter possession, he backed away from Embiid in the post and gave up an open shot rather than risk being whistled for his fifth foul. 

James' driving layup tied the score at 84 with 3:41 left, and then after a Filip Petrusev dunk put Serbia back on top Curry drilled a three to give Team USA the lead for good, 87-86. Jokic's layup cut Team USA's lead to 93-91 with :26 remaining, but Serbia made a puzzling decision to let 18 seconds run off of the clock before fouling--and then they fouled Curry, whose two free throws iced the win.

Serbia shot 10-19 (.526) from three point range in the first half, and they made 15 three pointers in the first three quarters--five in each quarter--but did not make a single shot from beyond the arc in the fourth quarter as Team USA belatedly lifted their defensive focus and intensity. There could not be a better example proving the point that Team USA's shooting from three point range is not the deciding factor in these games. 

When figuring out what to make of this game, keep in mind that Team USA's roster includes four players from the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team while Serbia's team includes four players who have NBA experience. Jokic is an all-time great and Bogdanovic is a solid NBA starter, but Vasilije Micic has averaged 7.0 ppg in 60 career NBA games and Nikola Jovic has averaged 7.1 ppg in 61 career NBA games.

Here is a fascinating thought experiment: would Serbia have come within five points of beating Team USA if you switched Jokic with any one Team USA player? Keep in mind that 75th Anniversary Team members James, Curry, Durant, and Davis won most of their NBA titles by forming super teams, not by elevating teams without All-Stars. Would any of them even show up for the Olympics if they were told that their team's second best player would be Bogdan Bogdanovic? Curry led an underdog college squad at Davidson so maybe he would accept the challenge, but James, Durant, and Davis are not built like that.

I mean no disrespect to Serbia. In fact, my point is that the Serbian players are better at basketball than they are given credit for being, while American players are overrated. This is not a hot take, or an overreaction to one game. Team USA's game plan for the first 30-plus minutes versus Serbia seemed to be to hope that Curry could make enough three pointers to overcome their sluggish defense and their lack of an effective half court offense; in marked contrast, Serbia played a team game at both ends of the court. American basketball--from high school to college to the NBA--has devolved into an isolation game in which star players are protected by the officials and in which principles of team play at both ends of the court are not emphasized enough. For at least the past 20 years in FIBA play, we have regularly seen that American players who are used to traveling, palming, and being rewarded with free throw attempts after jumping into defenders are not nearly as effective when they are not provided with such leeway. NBA players, particularly American NBA players, rely on rules that favor offense, and their statistics are inflated by that reliance; think of how often NBA players are bailed out by flopping and flailing. Embiid had an excellent game versus Serbia, but in this game and throughout the Olympics he has often flung himself to the floor--as he does all the time in the NBA--only to watch in exasperation as the FIBA referees refused to bail him out. Embiid has bragged that he would average 50 ppg in the NBA if double teaming were outlawed, but a better hypothetical to ponder is how many points he would average if the NBA stopped rewarding him for falling down. 

As I noted in my article about Team USA's performance in the USA Basketball showcase, the popular notion--repeatedly asserted by J.J. Redick--that today's NBA players are vastly superior to NBA players from previous eras does not withstand careful scrutiny. Jokic already has won an NBA championship despite not playing alongside a single All-Star, and now he nearly took down four 75th Anniversary Team members (plus a host of perennial All-Stars) with one NBA starter and two NBA reserves. Either Jokic is the greatest player of all-time, or his Serbian teammates are much better than anyone thinks, or the American players are not quite as good as their press clippings. Again, this is not based on just one game; this is based on watching more than two decades of regression of the American game--with a brief respite when Kobe Bryant and Jason Kidd restored order by playing the kind of perimeter defense that is necessary for Team USA to consistently win in FIBA play: Bryant went 36-0 in FIBA play, and Kidd went 56-0 in FIBA play, but before and after their tenures with Team USA the squad suffered losses to teams that looked vastly inferior on paper if one only considers the players' NBA resumes.

Redick and others assert that the supposedly skinny NBA players of the 1990s, 1980s, and earlier would have had no chance trying to compete against James. If that is true, then why does James need three other 75th Anniversary Team members to barely beat Jokic and--no offense to Serbia--a bunch of skinny dudes who will likely never make an NBA All-Star team? I don't doubt that James would put up big individual numbers in any era, but he would not have won more championships in earlier eras than he won in his own era, unless you can picture Jokic and crew beating any championship team from the 1990s, 1980s, or 1970s. If James needs a team stacked with NBA All-Stars to barely squeak by Jokic and Serbia then James is not beating the 1970s Knicks or Celtics, or the 1980s Lakers, Celtics, Pistons, or 76ers, or the 1990s Bulls unless he has a stacked team.

This close call versus Serbia is just one more example of the extent to which American players who expect to be able to travel and palm the ball while being rewarded with free throw attempts if a defender even breathes on them are not nearly so spectacular when they are expected to play basketball by the written rules and not by the NBA's lenient interpretations of those rules. Remember when Gregg Popovich used to instruct his players to put their hands behind their backs when they guarded James Harden? Popovich was trying to prevent his players from getting into foul trouble based on the ludicrous way that Harden was officiated but--intentionally or not--he was also exposing the extent to which the NBA game is slanted to favor offense.

It is often said that the world has caught up to America in basketball, but that is overly simplistic. It is true that many of the other national teams have improved, but it is undeniable that American basketball has regressed. There is video evidence to demonstrate this. On August 8, 1992, the one and only Dream Team beat Croatia 117-85 to win Olympic gold. Team USA's starting lineup that day was Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson, Scottie Pippen, Charles Barkley, and David Robinson. I realize that half of the people reading this article may not have been alive in 1992, but those of us old enough to have seen all of the Dream Team's games live know the difference between their brand of basketball and the brand of basketball being played by the current version of Team USA. It is fair to say that the Dream Team would have beaten this Serbian team by at least 15-20 points, and probably more. Keep in mind that the Croatian team that the Dream Team thrashed featured three future Hall of Famers: Toni Kukoc, Drazen Petrovic, and Dino Radja. That Croatian team would probably beat this Serbian team. The Dream Team certainly made their share of highlight plays, but they won because of their mastery of basketball fundamentals at both ends of the court: they defended tenaciously, they rebounded, and they punctuated fast breaks with dunks, not "logo threes." 

It is undeniable that Team USA 2024 is far from being a Dream Team, let alone matching the real Dream Team, and even though Team USA is (and should be) the favorite versus France it is not at all certain that Team USA will win the gold medal game. France beat Team USA 83-76 in the first game of the 2020 Olympics (held in 2021), and then battled Team USA to the wire before falling 87-82 in the gold medal game.

Labels: 2024 Olympics, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Joel Embiid, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Nikola Jokic, Stephen Curry, Team USA

posted by David Friedman @ 1:49 AM

12 comments

Team USA Routs Brazil 122-87 to Move Within Two Wins of Capturing Olympic Gold

After posting a 3-0 record in pool play and earning the number one seed in the medal round, Team USA demolished Brazil in the quarterfinals to set up a semifinal matchup on Thursday versus Serbia, who needed overtime to beat Australia. Team USA jumped out to an 18-8 lead within the first five minutes, and enjoyed a double digit cushion most of the rest of the way. Brazil cut the margin to just eight points, 42-34, at the 4:10 mark of the second quarter before Team USA closed the half with a 21-2 run to erase any doubt. As is generally the case in FIBA play, strong defense leading to transition scoring opportunities was the key factor. Team USA held Brazil to 32-77 (.416) field goal shooting overall, including 12-37 (.324) from beyond the arc. Team USA controlled the boards 46-34, and forced 15 turnovers while only turning the ball over 11 times. Each Team USA starter had a plus/minus number of at least +12, a welcome change from previous games when opposing teams kept pace with Team USA's starters before succumbing to Team USA's superior depth.

Starter Devin Booker scored a team-high 18 points on 6-9 field goal shooting in 15 minutes. Anthony Edwards added 17 points on 6-10 field goal shooting off of the bench in 20 minutes. Joel Embiid, inserted in the starting lineup despite his largely desultory play for Team USA, had 14 points and seven rebounds in 12 minutes; naturally, while finally having a good game he engaged in constant celebrations, taunting a French crowd that jeered him for spurning France (he is a French citizen as well) to play for Team USA. Also naturally, Embiid injured his ankle during the first half and did not play in the second half: watching him play for Team USA is like watching him in the NBA playoffs when he usually plays below his regular season standard for most games but has one or two good games and invariably is either injured entering the postseason or gets hurt during the playoffs. He is not expected to miss more time in the Olympics.

Anthony Davis, Team USA's defensive anchor, scored 13 points on 5-9 field goal shooting while also tying Brazil's Georginho De Paula for game-high rebounding honors (eight). LeBron James added 12 points on 5-6 field goal shooting plus a game-high nine assists before leaving the game after taking an elbow to the face. James needed four stitches and did not return to action but he is expected to be fully available for the Serbia game. Kevin Durant chipped in 11 points off of the bench and surpassed Lisa Leslie to become the all-time leading scorer for Team USA in Olympic play (of course, such records are skewed in favor of modern players who participate in the Olympics several times, in contrast to previous eras when American players played in the Olympics just once).

Bruno Caboclo scored a game-high 30 points for Brazil, but Team USA held most of his teammates in check.

Serbia has been up and down during the Olympics, but they have the best player in the world (Nikola Jokic) plus Bojan Bogdanovic and a bunch of scrappy players who most casual fans do not know much about. Team USA handled Serbia pretty easily in both the USA Basketball Showcase and pool play, though it is worth mentioning that in pool play Serbia played even with Team USA for the 31 minutes that Jokic was on the court but was outscored 29-3 during the nine minutes that Jokic was on the bench. If Serbia plays Jokic almost the entire game and he gets a little more help from his teammates then this game could be closer than expected, particularly if Team USA has some defensive lapses.

Labels: 2024 Olympics, Anthony Davis, Devin Booker, Joel Embiid, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Team USA

posted by David Friedman @ 9:04 AM

0 comments

Team USA Cruises to 3-0 Record in Pool Play, Earns Top Seed in Medal Round

On Saturday, Team USA routed Puerto Rico 104-83 in the final game of Olympics pool play. Puerto Rico led 25-17 after the first eight minutes, but Team USA trimmed the margin to 29-25 by the end of the first quarter and then outscored Puerto Rico 39-16 in the second quarter to take a 64-45 halftime lead. Team USA shot just 9-32 (.281) from three point range and that did not matter at all, because they held Puerto Rico to 10-37 (.270) three point shooting. As is generally the case for Team USA in FIBA play, defending the three point line, getting out in transition, and scoring easy baskets were much more important than making three pointers--despite the incessant chatter about the need to stuff the roster with three point shooters: Stephen Curry, widely considered the greatest three point shooter of all-time, shot .263 from three point range in Team USA's three pool play games, and Team USA still won each game by at least 17 points.

Anthony Edwards scored a game-high 26 points in just 17 minutes off of the bench; as has often been the case for Team USA this year, the reserves picked up the slack after the starters were sluggish. Joel Embiid added 15 points on 6-14 field goal shooting, which qualifies as a breakout game for him considering how poorly he has played up to this point; he looks out of shape, but the undersized Puerto Rico team was just the right medicine for him. Kevin Durant added 11 points in 19 minutes off of the bench, while LeBron James, Jayson Tatum, and Anthony Davis each scored 10 points. James had six rebounds and a game-high eight assists, and Tatum tied Puerto Rico's Ismael Romero for game-high honors with 10 rebounds.

Team USA finished Olympics pool play with a 3-0 record. Team USA previously beat Serbia (110-84) and South Sudan (103-86 after nearly losing to South Sudan in the USA Basketball Showcase)--and has earned the number seed in the medal round based on their overall point differential of +64. Canada and Germany also went 3-0, but they had point differentials of +47 and +20 respectively. In the Olympics, blowing out an inferior opponent is an important tactic for getting a better seed, not bad sportsmanship.

The medal round is single elimination, so the NBA players have to adjust their mindsets from seven game playoff series during which each game lasts 48 minutes to the reality that one bad 40 minute game--or even one bad stretch during a 40 minute game--could be the end of the road. Team USA is the clear favorite to win the gold medal, but the other top FIBA teams are not pushovers. Team USA must continue to defend the perimeter aggressively and then score easy baskets in transition; if the game slows down, the top FIBA teams may pick them apart in the halfcourt. Depth is a major weapon--perhaps the major weapon--for Team USA; it is fascinating to see that even unheralded FIBA teams that lack NBA stars can hang with Team USA's first unit of all-time great players before being overwhelmed after Team USA's second unit enters the fray.

Edwards led Team USA in scoring (16.7 ppg on .633 field goal shooting) during pool play, followed closely by Durant (16.0 ppg on .636 field goal shooting). James is third in scoring (14.3 ppg on .643 field goal shooting), first in assists (7.3 apg), and third in rebounding (6.7 rpg) behind Tatum (7.5 rpg) and Davis (7.0 rpg).

Team USA has been rolling so comfortably that media members have felt compelled to make up drama-filled headlines, shrieking in horror when Tatum did not play versus Serbia and then again when Embiid did not play versus South Sudan. Team USA's Coach Steve Kerr explained those lineup choices as being strictly matchup-related; he does not have a set rotation, but instead shuffles his starting lineup and adjusts playing time based on the strengths/weaknesses of the opponent. If the people covering the 2024 Olympics did their research then they would know that the 1992 Dream Team--the first Team USA squad that had NBA players on the roster--had many different starting lineups; every player on the roster except John Stockton and Christian Laettner started at least one game, with most players starting three or four of the eight games (not surprisingly, Michael Jordan was the only player who started all eight games).

Team USA will face Brazil in the quarterfinals on Tuesday. The winner of that game will play the winner of Australia versus Serbia. In the other bracket, the winner of Germany versus Greece will face the winner of Canada versus France, with the winner of that semifinal matchup advancing to the gold medal game to presumably face Team USA.

Labels: 2024 Olympics, Anthony Davis, Anthony Edwards, Jayson Tatum, Joel Embiid, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Team USA

posted by David Friedman @ 3:54 AM

6 comments

Thoughts About Team USA's Performance in the USA Basketball Showcase

Team USA went 5-0 in the USA Basketball Showcase in preparation for the 2024 Olympics, but Team USA was far from dominant, and needed late rallies to survive versus South Sudan and Germany. Although many commentators argue that it is important for Team USA to be stocked with three point shooters, history has shown that defending the three point line--and perimeter defense in general--is much more critical for Team USA to be successful. Team USA does not typically have a great halfcourt offense, so it is essential for Team USA to create pressure on the perimeter to force turnovers and low percentage shots, and then to score easy baskets in transition. Team USA's depth becomes a big advantage if Team USA pushes the pace to wear down opposing teams that have some talent at the top of their roster but lack depth.

Team USA opened the USA Basketball Showcase with an 86-72 win versus Canada. The most notable thing about that game is that Canada's starting lineup of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jamal Murray, Dwight Powell, Dillon Brooks, and R.J. Barrett held their own against Team USA's starting lineup of Stephen Curry, Jrue Holiday, Joel Embiid, LeBron James, and Devin Booker. Team USA's top five bench players--Anthony Davis, Anthony Edwards, Tyrese Haliburton, Jayson Tatum, and Bam Adebayo--each had double digit plus/minus numbers, while three of the five starters had negative plus/minus numbers. Plus/minus numbers can be noisy in small sample sizes, but here they told an accurate story: Team USA's starters were sluggish, Canada led 21-14 at the end of the first quarter, and Team USA's bench turned the game around in the second quarter. 

In Team USA's 98-92 win versus Australia, Team USA's starters again struggled, and the bench again saved the day. This time, Anthony Edwards and Jayson Tatum started while Jrue Holiday and Devin Booker came off of the bench. Australia is fifth in the FIBA rankings with a roster featuring several players with NBA experience but no upper echelon NBA players.

Team USA improved to 3-0 by beating Serbia, 105-79. Serbia is fourth in the FIBA rankings, led by three-time NBA regular season MVP Nikola Jokic supported by a talented cast of non-NBA players. Jokic struggled versus Team USA, finishing with just 16 points on 6-19 field goal shooting, and Team USA's depth again carried the day with four bench players registering plus/minus numbers of at least +21. 

Perhaps the easy win over Serbia made Team USA overconfident, because in the fourth game of the tour Team USA narrowly avoided the most embarrassing loss in USA Basketball history, escaping with a 101-100 victory over a South Sudan squad that is 33rd in the FIBA rankings. Team USA needed a dominant performance from 39 year old LeBron James--25 points on 10-14 field goal shooting in just 23 minutes, capped off by the game-winning layup with 8 seconds remaining. South Sudan managed two offensive rebounds and three field goal attempts in the final six seconds before Team USA escaped with the win.

It does not make sense to overreact to one game, let alone a game that does not count in the standings, but South Sudan's near upset of Team USA is not an isolated event; in the past two decades, Team USA has suffered several humiliating and inexcusable losses to teams that, on paper, should have been cannon fodder, and this should give pause to anyone who lionizes today's NBA players while slandering the great players from previous eras. J.J. Redick mocked Bob Cousy while asserting that Kyrie Irving would have been perceived as a "wizard" had he played in the 1950s, but the reality is that a significant portion of Irving's so-called wizardry is a product of rules changes and lack of enforcement of rules; specifically, Irving and his contemporaries are permitted to travel and to palm the ball, and they are rewarded with free throw attempts after jumping into defenders. We are seeing in FIBA play that American players who are used to traveling, palming, and being rewarded with free throw attempts after jumping into defenders are not nearly as effective when they are not provided with such leeway.

Look at South Sudan's roster both in terms of individual player resumes--none of the players are currently on an NBA roster and only two have even minimal NBA experience--and skill set evaluations. Is South Sudan better than the 1950s Boston Celtics, let alone the 1986 Boston Celtics, the 1992 Dream Team or the 1996 Chicago Bulls? I would expect those four teams to each beat South Sudan by 20 points or more, because those teams were fundamentally sound, and they consistently played hard. 

It is easy to say that the game versus South Sudan was an exhibition contest and that Team USA did not play hard--but isn't the point of the exhibition schedule to develop the necessary habits and mindset to win the gold medal? I could understand Team USA letting up a little after building a 20 or 30 point lead, but there is no excuse for Team USA to trail for most of the game--by double digits at times--and need heroics from James to survive.

In the wake of the near disaster versus South Sudan, Team USA barely held off Germany, 92-88. For the second game in a row, Team USA needed James to save the day, this time with 20 points on 8-11 field goal shooting, including Team USA's last five points after Germany cut Team USA's lead to 87-84 with 1:43 remaining. Germany is third in the FIBA rankings, and Germany beat Team USA last year. Here is what I wrote after Germany upset Team USA in the 2023 FIBA World Cup:

From an individual talent standpoint, there is no German player who would start for Team USA, and few if any German players who would have even been selected for the Team USA roster had they been American citizens, so USA Basketball has to take a long, hard look not only at roster composition but also coaching philosophies. Should the Team USA roster be constructed based primarily on individual talent, or on actually putting together a group of players who can collectively play championship-caliber basketball in FIBA events? Is Team USA's coaching staff putting enough emphasis on the importance of perimeter defense, and is the roster comprised of players who grasp and implement that message? Two of the best Team USA squads ever--the 1992 Dream Team and the 2008 Redeem Team--featured guards/wing players who applied tremendous defensive pressure on the perimeter, primarily Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen in 1992 and Kobe Bryant and Jason Kidd in 2008.  

The current version of Team USA is not good enough at pressuring ballhandlers, and is not disciplined enough in terms of getting back on defense and making sure that every shot is contested. It is safe to say that the 1992 U.S. team and the 2008 U.S. team would beat this year's Lithuania team and this year's Germany team by more than 20 points each, so while it is true that other countries have improved at basketball it is also undeniably true that Team USA has regressed from both a talent standpoint and an execution standpoint. I understand that the 2023 FIBA World Cup squad is not our "A" Team, but even our "B" Team should beat Lithuania and Germany, because those squads are not as good as the truly great FIBA teams from outside the United States such as Argentina's squads led by Manu Ginobili and Spain's teams led by Pau Gasol--and it must be noted that many other countries also sent their "B" Team, as Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo are just the two most prominent of many non-American players who skipped the 2023 World Cup. 

The bottom line is that we have seen this story before: Team USA losing to less talented teams because Team USA played awful defense.

Team USA's 2023 loss to Germany was brushed off by some commentators because Team USA had a "B" team roster--but in 2024 Team USA has an "A" team roster and still only beat Germany by four points. Team USA's 2023 loss to Germany echoed Team USA's 2021 loss to France in the Olympics, when it was glaringly evident how much Team USA missed the perimeter defensive pressure provided by Kobe Bryant as Team USA won gold medals in the Olympics in 2008 and 2012:

Bryant was the difference maker for Team USA in the 2008 Olympics, and Kidd retired with a perfect record in FIBA play. There is a reason that Team USA's 2004 squad with young perimeter players LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Carmelo Anthony, Allen Iverson, and Stephon Marbury did not win gold, but the 2008 and 2012 squads won gold after adding Bryant and Kidd. When Team USA loses in FIBA play, poor perimeter defense is usually a main culprit, resulting in wide open three pointers and/or easy cuts to the hoop. It is not essential for Team USA to make a lot of three pointers--Team USA can win with pressure defense, fast break points, and points in the paint--but it is essential that Team USA make opposing guards uncomfortable and ineffective. 

Team USA would not have lost to France with prime Kobe Bryant guarding Evan Fournier. Period. 

Another factor is that Team USA always has to make adjustments to the differences between the NBA game and the FIBA game. FIBA games are only 40 minutes long instead of 48 minutes long, the FIBA three point line is closer to the hoop, goaltending is permitted under FIBA rules after the ball hits the rim, there are fewer timeouts in FIBA, in FIBA timeouts can only be called by the coach, in FIBA a player is disqualified after five fouls (instead of six in the NBA), and in FIBA a technical foul also counts as a personal foul.

Also, NBA officiating has always differed from FIBA officiating, but the differences are now more pronounced than ever; in the NBA, offensive players can get away with murder on the perimeter--including traveling, carrying, and running over defenders--while any defender who is in close proximity to an offensive player (especially an offensive player who is viewed as a star) is liable to be whistled for a foul. In the loss to France, five Team USA players had more fouls than field goals made! Durant, Booker, Lillard, and the other NBA All-Stars who are big time scorers are used to not only attempting a lot of free throws per game but they are also used to (1) not being whistled for fouls, and (2) having a lot of space to operate because defenders are wary of being whistled for fouls that not only put them in foul trouble but also put their team in the penalty.

Team USA failed to win a medal in the 2023 FIBA World Cup after losing to Canada in the bronze medal game, and Team USA won the gold medal in the Olympics in 2021, avenging the opening game loss to France. It is facile to say that the world has caught up with Team USA, but it may be more accurate to say that Team USA has regressed at least as much as the world has progressed. American players have lost touch with basketball fundamentals, they have become accustomed to officiating that coddles them on offense, and they are not used to consistently having to put forth effort defensively. 

Due to injury, Kevin Durant did not play during the USA Basketball Showcase, but a roster featuring James, Curry, Embiid, Tatum, Edwards, Davis, and other big-name players should not be dependent on adding yet another superstar in order to beat Australia, Canada, Germany, or Serbia, let alone South Sudan.

It is becoming evident that the current level of NBA basketball is not as good advertised, and this is particularly true regarding U.S. born NBA players. Unless one is delusional enough to think that a team led by Franz Wagner and Dennis Schroder would pose any threat to the Jordan-Pippen Bulls, the Bird-McHale-Parish Celtics, or the Russell-Cousy Celtics, one must concede that the current NBA stars--individually and collectively--are not quite as great as the hype suggests. It is one thing for Redick to call Irving a "wizard," but does he think that Wagner and Schroder are "wizards"? Does he think that South Sudan has a roster full of "wizards"? Today's NBA stars put up gaudy numbers versus each other in a controlled environment in which "entertainment"--punctuated by slam dunks and three pointers, which are favored by both "stat gurus" and the league's media partners who feature dunks and treys in highlight packages--is favored over basketball fundamentals; remove those stars from that controlled environment, and they often do not look quite so great. This is not an overreaction to one game or one exhibition tour; this is analysis based on a sample size of over 20 years of Team USA's play in FIBA events, coinciding with the NBA's shift toward highlighting offense and handcuffing defense.

It would be shocking on paper if the 2024 Team USA squad headlined by LeBron James, Stephen Curry, and Joel Embiid fails to win Olympic gold, but the reality is that this team has displayed weaknesses that opposing teams can exploit. To be clear, I still expect Team USA to win Olympic gold, but I also expect that there will be at least one close call along the way--and when a team that is superior on paper lets the opposition hang around, an upset can happen.

Labels: 2024 Olympics, Joel Embiid, LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Team USA

posted by David Friedman @ 10:43 AM

4 comments