20 Second Timeout

Once Talkative Wizards Go Down Silently in Game Six

For such a talkative, confident and brash group, the Washington Wizards sure went down meekly in game six of their series with the Cleveland Cavaliers; the Wizards played smart, competitive basketball for about a quarter and a half and then fell apart, causing their initially boisterous home fans to gradually become silent and then begin slowly filtering out of the arena as the inevitability of the outcome became clear. LeBron James quieted the crowd's "overrated" and "crybaby" chants with another magnificent performance, notching his third career playoff triple double (27 points, 13 rebounds and a playoff career-high 13 assists) as the Cavaliers never trailed in the second half en route to a 105-88 victory. James achieved his triple double by the end of the third quarter. Wally Szczerbiak made the Wizards pay whenever they trapped James, scoring a playoff career-high 26 points while shooting 6-13 from three point range. Daniel Gibson (22 points, 4-6 shooting from three point range) also repeatedly punished the Wizards for leaving him open. Antawn Jamison led the Wizards with 23 points and a game-high 15 rebounds but he did not receive much help.

The Cavaliers double teamed game five hero Caron Butler, who was largely invisible for most of game six before padding his stats after the game was out of reach to finish with respectable totals (18 points, nine rebounds). Before recapping what happened in the game, it is worth revisiting the difference between being an MVP-level player and being an All-Star. There are rarely if ever more than five legitimate MVP candidates in a given season, yet media members and fans continually anoint numerous All-Star players as "superstars" and "MVP candidates." They did that with Gilbert Arenas early in the 2006-07 season and I even heard some talk about Butler being an MVP candidate when the Wizards played well without Arenas this season. I guess I just have a much higher standard for such things; unless you have an established history of being an MVP-level player, even having a great month does not make you an MVP candidate in my book. That is why I did not buy the idea that Brandon Roy was an MVP candidate just because Portland had a 13 game winning streak early in the season; you should have to play at least one full season at an MVP level before your name is mentioned in MVP discussions: that is why I ranked Chris Paul seventh (i.e., out of the top five and therefore not a serious candidate) in the first edition of the Blogger MVP/RoY rankings only to steadily move him up the charts after Paul demonstrated that he was in fact putting together an MVP caliber season as opposed to being an All-Star level player who had an early season hot streak.

Butler was phenomenal in game five, producing 32 points, nine rebounds and five assists and making the game-winning layup with 3.9 seconds left. However, it is worth noting that the 32 points were a playoff career-high for Butler and that he was not able to even come close to matching that performance despite playing at home in an elimination game. That is the difference between being an MVP candidate and being an All-Star: James puts up 32, nine and five on a regular basis, regardless of what defensive coverage he faces, but Butler is not able to do that. I don't think that Butler "choked," I just think that he is not the kind of player who is going to play at an MVP level night after night; over the course of a series, he will put up All-Star numbers and he may have a game in which he plays like an MVP. Butler averaged 18.7 ppg, 5.7 rpg and 3.8 apg in the series.

Szczerbiak hit his first two three pointers as Cleveland took a quick 12-6 lead but the Wizards played with energy, crashed the offensive glass and responded with a 25-11 run to go up 31-23, which would turn out to be their biggest lead of the game. Cleveland cut that margin in half in just 26 seconds after an Anderson Varejao layup and a coast to coast drive by Gibson that just beat the buzzer. James scored just two points but he had four assists.

The Wizards maintained their lead until midway through the second quarter when the Cavs went on a 21-3 run that effectively decided the outcome of the game; that put the Cavs up 56-43 and even though the Wizards answered with five points to end the period they never really seriously threatened again. There was a little bit of drama right before halftime when Gibson seemed to be fouled on a buzzer beating three point attempt but no foul was called. James said something to the notoriously short-fused Steve Javie, who instantly rang James up with a technical foul and then belligerently gestured to James to leave the court. James, who was waiting around to do a halftime on-air interview with Ric Bucher, wisely did not say anything further to Javie. Bucher asked James what he said to Javie prior to getting the technical and James insisted that he did not say anything disrespectful. James had 10 points, seven assists and six rebounds at the intermission, while Jamison led the Wizards with 16 points and seven rebounds and Butler had just five points on 2-6 field goal shooting.

Prior to the start of the third quarter, Butler--a .901 free throw shooter during the regular season--missed the free throw resulting from James' technical foul. After a James jumper and a Szczerbiak three pointer, Cleveland led 61-48. The Wizards' offense, which looked energetic and crisp in its execution in the first quarter, devolved into various players settling for long jump shots. The Wizards stayed in contact for a few minutes but then the Cavs started to pull away and Cleveland's 79-64 lead at the end of the period felt like a bigger margin because the Wizards' players were already hanging their heads and presenting the body language of a team that knew it could not come back.

Sure enough, the Wizards made no run in the final stanza as the teams simply traded baskets down the stretch. Both teams emptied their benches around the two minute mark. As far as I could tell, the Cavs engaged in no trash talking and no excessive celebrating; they did not rub their victory in the faces of the Washington players or their fans. I wonder if the same would have held true if the outcome had been reversed?

For the first five games of the Cleveland-Washington series, the Wizards had a lot to say, even if much of it was not worth hearing. DeShawn Stevenson, who scored 10 points on 2-9 field goal shooting and had an up close and personal view as James dominated game six, kicked things off a month ago by barking that James is "overrated." Wizards' supporters like to emphasize how long ago Stevenson said that--but Stevenson never backed off from that ludicrous statement. When he was not limping around like Fred Sanford or jacking up shots like the Agent Zero of old, Gilbert Arenas told his ghostwriter to announce to the world (via his blog) that "We want Cleveland," adding that he did not think that the Cavs were playing well and that they could not beat the Wizards in the playoffs three straight years. Then the Wizards upped the ante by becoming wanna be tough guys, not only giving James hard fouls on several occasions but being dumb enough to announce to the world that this was their game plan, thus bringing further negative attention on to their team. If they thought that this would rattle James and cause him to stop driving to the hoop and/or lose his cool then they were sadly mistaken.

The Wizards actually have a very classy owner, Abe Pollin, a good coach in Eddie Jordan and two hardworking, professional and classy All-Stars in Butler and Jamison; unfortunately for Washington, it took until game five--when Arenas shut himself down for the season--for Butler and Jamison to reassert control over their team's locker room, essentially telling their squad to shut up, calm down and let their play do their talking. As Jamison put it, "We just said, 'It's time to stop all the talking.' A lot of guys were trying to defend themselves as far as this and that. But it wasn't working. We said, 'The ultimate change around is for us to just be quiet and find a way to come back from 3-1 and win the series. I think they finally got it." Anyone who knows anything about the NBA realizes that Butler and Jamison wanted nothing to do with the trash talking and the sideshow antics that Arenas, Stevenson and Brendan Haywood--who started the "crybaby" nonsense--introduced into this series but Butler and Jamison had to walk a delicate line between supporting their wayward teammates publicly yet trying to steer the team as a whole in a positive direction. Butler finally spoke up prior to game five, telling a TNT interviewer that anything that did not come out of his mouth or out of the mouth of co-captain Jamison did not reflect what the Wizards as a team stand for or believe. You may have noticed during game six that when James collided with Butler or Jamison that he made a point of extending an arm and helping them up; although Pat Riley would decry offering assistance to the "enemy," James showed that he recognizes that Butler and Jamison are true professionals who are worthy of his respect.

It is only fitting to give James the last word: "Cleveland has advanced and we won the series 4-2. That speaks much louder than anything I can say about the fans here, anything about DeShawn Stevenson. Cleveland has advanced. That's all that matters."

Labels: Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler, Cleveland Cavaliers, Gilbert Arenas, LeBron James, Washington Wizards

posted by David Friedman @ 4:37 AM

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Butler Does It: Last Second Shot Staves off Elimination for Wizards

Caron Butler scored a playoff career-high 32 points--including the game winning layup with 3.9 seconds remaining--as the Washington Wizards escaped Cleveland with an 88-87 victory that cut the Cavaliers' lead to 3-2 in their first round best of seven series. Butler shot 11-22 from the field, grabbed nine rebounds and led the Wizards in assists (five), three pointers made (four) and steals (two). DeShawn Stevenson, a previously nondescript player whose incendiary comments have thrust him front and center in this series, backed up his words with solid play, at least to some extent: he was the Wizards' second leading scorer with 17 points but he shot just 5-14 from the field. Antonio Daniels, who got the start at point guard because Gilbert Arenas has been shut down for the duration of the playoffs due to his balky knee, was Washington's only other double figure scorer (12 points). Antawn Jamison had a subpar offensive game (eight points on 3-10 field goal shooting) but he did snare a game-high 11 rebounds. As usual, LeBron James did everything for the Cavs, leading them in minutes (44:05), points (34), rebounds (10), assists (seven) and blocked shots (two). He even shot uncharacteristically well from the free throw line (15-18); the only slight blemish on his otherwise sterling stat line is that he shot 8-21 from the field. Zydrunas Ilgauskas played very well (19 points on 8-11 field goal shooting, six rebounds, a +17 plus/minus rating that was easily a game-high number); it sometimes seems like the nights when he shoots well he does not get a lot of shot attempts, though that probably has more to do with the flow of the game than anything else--James has the ball most of the time and if he does not have a driving lane or an open shot then he passes to the open man and since the Wizards focused more attention on Ilgauskas that meant that the Cavs' three point shooters were open. The Cavs shot 9-25 from three point range, which is a very acceptable percentage (.360) but after the game a lot of conversation--at least among the media members who covered the game--centered around the idea that 25 three point attempts out of 75 total field goal attempts seems like too high of a ratio. Neither James nor Cleveland Coach Mike Brown necessarily agreed with that assessment; James insisted that other than one bad three pointer late in the game most of the long range attempts were good, open shots that resulted from drive and kick plays and Brown echoed that argument (subject to further review after he watches a tape of the game). The Wizards' defense is designed to slow down James and force the Cavs to make outside shots; if the Cavs pass up those shots then they may end up with shot clock violations or closer shots that are more heavily contested. Although there is some merit to both sides of this debate, I tend to agree with Brown and James that more significant than the total number of three point shots attempted is whether those shots are contested ones or whether they are open looks that resulted from drive and kick plays or ball reversals.

When--and at this point perhaps the correct word is "If"--Arenas becomes 100% healthy it will be interesting to reexamine whether or not the Wizards are better off replacing him players who are more coachable and more defensive minded/team oriented. However, in his current state when he is physically limited but still wants to be the center of attention there is no doubt that the Wizards play better without him. A group of us talked about this very subject in the media dining room before the game and I reiterated my assertion that the best thing that happened to the Cavs in this series is when Arenas came out hot in the first game, because he has been chasing the mirage that he is hot ever since then and that has resulted in missed shots and turnovers. Someone countered by bringing up the big-time shot that Arenas made near the end of game four. That is true, I conceded, but even that shot, like the long three pointer that J.R. Smith made against the Lakers late in game four of that series, was a bad shot: Arenas took a low percentage shot with plenty of time on the shot clock; it happened to go in but it still was a bad shot and the more he is on the court the more often he will take--and usually miss--bad shots.

In the first quarter, the Wizards outscored the Cavs 23-16 while shooting 9-14 from the field, led by Butler's 14 points on 5-6 shooting. The Wizards would likely have had an even bigger lead but they committed seven turnovers. Arenas' supporters often say that the statistics do not bear out that the ball movement is better without him, citing the team's lower assists numbers when he does not play. Indeed, the Wizards had just three assists in the first quarter. Nevertheless, the ball did in fact move around, all of the players were involved in the offense in some fashion and that is just a better way to play than standing around watching Arenas and waiting to see if he is going to shoot, pass or just keep dribbling. As Chris Webber said about the drawbacks for Denver players who are teammates of Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson, when one player monopolizes the ball the other guys don't know what to do or when to do it because they never know when they are going to get the ball. You can accumulate assists and still be a selfish, losing ballplayer--just look at Stephon Marbury for a prime example of that. Anthony has never won a playoff series, Iverson had his most postseason success when Larry Brown moved him off the ball (which minimized the problems that I am describing here) and Arenas has won exactly one playoff series in his entire career. Consider that in this series Washington's two wins are a blowout in which Arenas only played 10 minutes while uncharacteristically passing more than he shot and tonight's game that Arenas sat out entirely. After a while it becomes tiresome to even try to explain basketball to Arenas' supporters because it is like arguing with members of the Flat Earth Society. My position now is simple: talk to me when Arenas is the main player on a team that wins 50-55 regular season games and/or at least two playoff series in one season. Until then, Arenas is a higher scoring version of Marbury who happens to have a popular blog and a dedicated fan club.

Of course, no Cleveland-Washington playoff game this year would be complete without the obligatory incident featuring extracurricular contact and jawing by Wizards' players, with both the contact and the jawing generally directed at James. This time, Darius Songaila made a backhand slap to James' face after Songaila had already fouled him on a driving move. James simply rubbed his jaw and moved away but players from both teams congregated around each other and started woofing and posturing. For no apparent reason, Stevenson slapped down Anderson Varejao's arm. After the officials sorted everything out, Songaila, Stevenson and Varejao received technical fouls.

James steadfastly refuses to allow hard fouls and/or dumb comments to distract him from the task at hand. Asked after the game to describe what happened between him and Songaila, James said, "Nothing." That is one of the big differences between James and Arenas; James stays focused on doing what he has to do help his team win, while Arenas often creates and/or partakes in sideshows that cause unnecessary distractions both for him and for his teammates. If Arenas had been involved in such a play he most likely would say something "clever" that would draw more attention to it--and thus draw attention away from doing the things that have to be done to win games. By not commenting about Songaila, James effectively defused the situation. James knows that in this series he is the best player on the court and that on most nights if he does what he is capable of doing then Cleveland will beat Washington and that is all that matters to him.

The Cavs chipped away at Washington's lead in the second quarter as Ilgauskas scored 10 points on 4-5 shooting. Washington led 45-43 at halftime. Butler had 16 points on 6-10 shooting, Ilgauskas had 12 points on 5-6 shooting and James had only 10 points on 2-8 shooting. I joked that the Cavs should send their training staff to the Wizards' locker room and patch up Arenas just enough so that he could play in the second half.

Cleveland used a 9-0 run to take a 59-53 third quarter lead. It seemed like the Cavs were about to take control of the game and the series but that turned out to be Cleveland's biggest lead of the game. A Jamison layup, a Butler put back and three pointers by Jamison and Butler helped the Wizards tie the score at 63. By the end of the quarter, the Wizards were up 69-65. Down the stretch of that quarter, the Cavs missed open shots that they normally make, including three layups (two by Varejao, one by James) and a jump hook by Joe Smith.

The fourth quarter was tightly contested, with neither team leading by more than six points. Cleveland seemed to be in control after James blocked Butler's layup attempt and West raced downcourt to score a layup, draw a foul and complete a three point play. That put the Cavs up 87-82 with just 1:47 left. The Cavs just needed two or three defensive stops and perhaps one more score. Instead, James and Gibson sandwiched missed three pointers around a Butler put back. After Daniels sank two free throws to cut the lead to 87-86, the Cavs definitely needed a score but Smith missed a short hook and after Ilgauskas was unable to tip it in Butler controlled the rebound and the Wizards called a timeout with 11.2 seconds left. Washington Coach Eddie Jordan designed a nice play in which Jamison received the inbounds pass with the option of creating on his own or passing to Butler at the top of the key; Jamison's read convinced him that Butler had the better opportunity, so he passed the ball to him. Butler sized up James and drove to the hoop, scoring on a contested layup with 3.9 seconds left. Butler later admitted that he considered shooting a jumper but with the season on the line he did not want to have to look back and think that he bailed out the defense. If Arenas were playing the Wizards would not have run such a nice play with multiple options; they would have given Arenas the ball in a 1-4 set and let him go one on one.

Of course, everyone in the building knew that James would get the ball on the Cavs' final play. He drove past Stevenson, got into the lane, made some contact with Songaila and lofted a shot that rolled around and dropped out. A couple Cavs almost tipped it in but their efforts fell short and time expired. Cleveland fans naturally wanted a foul to be called on Songaila but there was some contact on both Butler's drive and James' drive and the officials deemed this contact to be marginal in both instances.

At first, James deflected a question about whether he was fouled on the last play by saying that Cleveland is a no-excuse team and that this one play is not why Cleveland lost. Pressed again to say whether or not he thought that he was fouled, James looked the questioner in the eye, simply said, "Yes" and did not elaborate.

In his postgame remarks, Cleveland Coach Mike Brown mentioned two of his tried and true mantras ("We're a no-excuse team" and "One day, one game at a time"). Asked about whether he thought that James was fouled on his last shot, Brown replied, "That's up to the referees to make that call. We're a no-excuse team. We know we're better than the way we played tonight. You've got to give Washington credit for doing what they needed to do to come in here and get a win. We've got to lace 'em up and get ready to go for game six."

Someone asked Brown if he thinks that the Cavs are still in control of the series. Brown said that he does not think in those terms: "For us it's one day, one game at a time. It doesn't matter if we're down 0-3 or if we're up 2-1, we've got to take the next game as its own separate entity and go out there and play the right way in order to win."

After a game like this it is easy to fall back on cliches and say that the Wizards played with desperation in a do or die game while the Cavs played with less urgency but that is not the overall impression that I got from watching the game in person. While the Wizards certainly displayed the concentration and focus that you would expect from a team fighting to avoid elimination, the Cavs also played hard: the rebound battle was virtually even and the turnover battle was a dead heat. Washington had six steals and three blocks, while the Cavs had five steals and seven blocks. There simply is neither an image nor a stat from this game that suggests that the Cavs played without effort. Make no mistake: they did not play well--but that is not the same thing as not trying. As many coaches are fond of saying, this is a make or miss league. James missed a point blank shot at the end and several Cavs missed shots late in the game that they normally make; if any of those shots go down then this series is over and the importance of this game would not be magnified in order to find out exactly what the Cavs did wrong. The bottom line is that neither team shot well and Butler nearly matched James shot for shot on this night, with the deciding factor being that Butler's last second shot went in and James' last second shot rolled out--that is what happens in a make or miss league.

All that matters now is what happens in game six. You may recall that I predicted that the Cavs would win this series in six games. After game four, someone asked James if he thought that Washington could come back from a 3-1 deficit to win the series. He replied simply, "No." Naturally, after this loss someone asked James if he is as confident about that statement now as he was previously--and James quite naturally replied, "Yeah, of course. Why not? As long as I am on the court we have a good chance to win--matter of fact, we have a great chance to win. So of course I am confident."

*****************************
Notes From Courtside:

Last year, the Cavs lost game five at home to the Nets in the second round before closing out the series with a road win in game six. During Coach Brown's pregame standup, I asked him if he specifically reminded his team about what happened versus New Jersey or if his remarks to the team focused primarily on the specific game plan for playing against Washington. He replied, "The focus is on this year and the Wizards. What happened last year in game five will hopefully benefit this year's team in this game five but we still have to go win it."

Well, if the Cavs ever face this situation again now they have two home losses in game fives from which they can try to learn something and benefit.

***

In game four there were a few plays in which James passed the ball to Ben Wallace, who then immediately reversed the ball to an open shooter; that is a pretty effective way to make sure that the defense has to account for a player who has limited shooting range. I asked Coach Brown if those passes from James to Wallace and from Wallace to the shooters were specifically in the game plan or if they were just spontaneous reads by those two players. Brown answered, "We've said it before: they're not guarding Ben and they're not really guarding Andy (Anderson Varejao), so we've got to get those guys as close to the basket as possible. They're really paying a lot of attention to LeBron by shifting their defense over to him when he has the ball. When those guys do touch the ball they either have to finish or if they're moving and working behind the basket and the defense loses vision (of where they are) then all of a sudden when they catch the ball everybody collapses (into the paint to prevent an easy layup) and it is just (a matter of) making the right pass. So it is by design that we have them down by the rim a lot of times but in terms of Ben being open it is just that the Wizards choosing to leave him open and he is making the right pass." In other words, Coach Brown is placing Wallace and Varejao in certain positions on the court based on their both their skills and their limitations and then the players are making the correct reads on the fly based on whatever the defensive coverage happens to be.

***

After hitting the game-winning three pointer in game four, Delonte West was asked about his big shot and he replied, "Hands down, man's down." There has been a lot of discussion since then about what exactly West meant by this but--as far as I know--no one actually bothered to go up to West and ask him directly. So, I approached West in the locker room before he was about to go out to do his pregame shooting and asked him to clarify the meaning of this phrase. He told me, "It means that if a guy comes out to you short or comes out to you with his hands down, man down, you know?"

Trying to make sure I understood, I replied, "Kind of like a knockout punch in boxing--if his hands are down, then you are going to knock him out by making the shot."

"Yes, uh huh," West immediately agreed. "That's exactly what it is--you come out with your hands down, you get man down. You run at a man with your hands down then you are going to get knocked out."

I then asked West, "Is that a philosophy that you take in reverse when you are on defense in terms of running out with your hands up to make sure that you don't get knocked out?"

"Yeah," he said, before adding shyly and almost apologetically, "It's just a saying. It wasn't anything too serious. It's just that I was feeling the excitement from the game and I needed a statement to go with the shot, you know what I mean?"

***

During a brief, informal ceremony in the locker room prior to the game, Cavaliers guard Damon Jones received the Austin Carr Good Guy Award. According to a press release from the Cavs, this honor, previously bestowed on Larry Hughes (2006) and Drew Gooden (2007), recognizes a Cavs player "who is cooperative and understanding of the media, the community and the public." Local members of the Professional Basketball Writers Association voted to determine the winner. Branson Wright, the Cavs' beat writer for the Plain Dealer, presented a plaque to Jones, who then spoke briefly to several media members who had gathered around him; Jones thanked everyone for voting for him, said that he understands and respects the jobs that the media members do and that they have treated him fairly, which is all he can ask for from them. He alluded to having a rocky start with the local media but said that since then everything has gone smoothly. He credited his parents for helping him to have the ability to effectively articulate his thoughts.

***

James now has 15 double doubles in 38 career playoff games. He is just the fourth player to post at least 34 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists in back to back playoff games. The other three are Larry Bird (May 11-13, 1984), Oscar Robertson (April 6-7, 1963) and Dolph Schayes (March 29-April 1, 1959).

Labels: Caron Butler, Cleveland Cavaliers, Delonte West, DeShawn Stevenson, Hands Down Man's Down, LeBron James, Washington Wizards

posted by David Friedman @ 10:30 AM

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Overrate This! LeBron James Keeps His Cool, Carries Cavs to 3-1 Lead Over Wizards

LeBron James produced game-high totals in points (34), rebounds (12, tied with teammate Ben Wallace) and assists (seven), carrying his Cleveland Cavaliers to a 100-97 win in Washington and a 3-1 series lead. James inserted daggers into the mouthy Wizards throughout the game before delivering the death blow at the end, drawing a double-team and passing to Delonte West, who delivered the game-winning three pointer from the left baseline. West finished with 21 points and five assists, shooting 5-8 from three point range. West and Daniel Gibson (12 points, 4-7 three point shooting) repeatedly made the Wizards pay for trapping James. Wallace's contributions will probably go unnoticed by most people but in addition to his 12 rebounds he had the Cavs' only two blocked shots while compiling a game-high +14 plus/minus rating. Even though Wallace did not attempt a single shot from the field and did not score a point, he put the lie to the idea that he is an offensive liability by grabbing four offensive rebounds and serving as a good pressure release when James was trapped, receiving passes from James and then immediately swinging the ball to the other side of the court; Wallace finished with two assists but even on plays when Wallace did not get the assist he played an important role in breaking down Washington's defense by making them scramble to guard the recipients of his passes.

Cleveland's three part recipe for victory is defense, rebounding and the brilliance of LeBron James. Cleveland played reasonably well on defense, holding the Wizards to .457 field goal shooting, but the Cavs outrebounded Washington 51-31 and James--as Doug Collins would say--had his fingerprints all over the game. Wizards' guard DeShawn Stevenson called James "overrated" a month ago and during the two games in Washington the fans thought it was amusing or cute to chant "Overrated!" at James, apparently oblivious to how completely ridiculous they are making themselves look to the rest of the nation, though Mike Tirico wryly noted that the chants seemed to noticeably die down after the Cavs took a second half lead. Tirico said of James, "He's staying away from the garbage...and just playing basketball." The ironic--and hilarious--thing about Washington fans chanting "Overrated!" is that perhaps the most overrated All-Star in the NBA--Gilbert Arenas-- plays for the Wizards. There is nothing wrong with fans booing the best player on the opposing team but when he is playing at a high level and simply killing your squad screaming "Overrated!" is not only childish but also ineffective. Great players "love being the enemy," to borrow the title of Reggie Miller's book, so antagonizing James in that fashion really did not do the Wizards any favors.

Antawn Jamison led Washington with 23 points and 11 rebounds. Caron Butler had a solid game (19 points, four assists). Gilbert Arenas got his second consecutive start, with decidedly mixed results in 32 minutes of action, the most time that he has played since returning from his knee injury: he scored four points in the final minute to help the Wizards tie the score before West made the game-winning shot but Arenas also had a game-high four turnovers and looked out of sync most of the time, scoring 10 points on 3-8 shooting from the field, adding two assists and two rebounds. Arenas had a -4 plus/minus rating, while Antonio Daniels--who started in Arenas' place for most of the season--had a +5 plus/minus rating in 17 minutes, contributing seven points and three assists while committing just one turnover.

The Wizards took an early 13-8 lead but they trailed 18-15 at the 3:39 mark of the first quarter when Daniels replaced Arenas, who had already committed four turnovers. The last of Arenas' miscues was stolen by James, who raced down court for a fast break dunk. Hubie Brown said simply that it was a "bad pass, bad decision" by Arenas, indicating that both the idea and the execution of the play were flawed. With Daniels running the show, Washington closed the quarter with a 13-6 run.

The Wizards played with much more defensive intensity and offensive efficiency in their game three win than they did in the first two games of the series and they continued to play well in the first quarter and a half of game four, building a 39-31 lead. Then things started to go downhill for them. Arenas missed a forced jumper and James converted a dunk. The Wizards missed a couple more jumpers and James passed to Wally Szczerbiak for a layup. Butler missed another jumper and on the next Cavs' possession Cleveland got three offensive rebounds, Wallace snaring the final one and passing to West for a three pointer that cut Washington's lead to 39-38. The Wizards no longer displayed good ball movement on offense, their defensive intensity had dropped off and the Cavaliers owned the boards. Still, it seemed possible that on their home court they could regroup themselves and win--but then the loud mouth Stevenson decided to become a wanna be tough guy, bopping James upside the head when James drove to the hoop. James went tumbling to the ground in one direction and his headband went flying in another. James immediately stood up and moved toward Stevenson but James has already shown that he is way too smart to do anything that will get him suspended, though James noted after the game that if Stevenson had pulled such a punk move (my term, not James') in the park then the situation would have "escalated"; that is why I say that Stevenson is a "wanna be tough guy," because it is easy to hit somebody in an NBA game when there are a bunch of people who are going to step in and make sure that there will not be a fight. The Wizards have never been known as a tough or physical team and their flagrant fouls on James in this series will do nothing to alter their reputation; real tough guys on a basketball court get rebounds, play defense, stay focused enough to execute and make winning plays, none of which the Wizards do on a consistent basis.

Stevenson received a level one flagrant foul, though at halftime Jon Barry said that he thought Stevenson should have been ejected. TNT's Charles Barkley did not go that far but he emphasized how dangerous it is to foul a player by hitting him in the head with such force. James made one of the two resulting free throws. James missed a jumper on the next possession but West stole the ball and passed to James, who nailed a deep three pointer to put the Cavs up 42-39. Cleveland closed the half on a 16-5 run after Stevenson's flagrant foul, with James scoring 10 points. By halftime, Cleveland led 54-44 and would never trail again, though the Wizards did tie the score late in the game.

In the third quarter, Hubie Brown suggested that a big problem for the Wizards is that they had started playing too much "one on one." As he said that, Arenas drove to the hoop and scored his first two points of the game on a reverse layup. "There's another example of a one on one play, but they converted," Brown noted. It is funny how Wizards' fans will exult when Arenas scores but for some reason they cannot figure out that he takes too many bad, low percentage shots and that his misses take his team out of games at least as often as his makes shoot the Wizards into games. The other problem with having a player like Arenas as a point guard is the corrosive effect it has on the rest of the team. During TNT's pregame show later in the day, Chris Webber talked about how frustrating it would be to play for the Denver Nuggets because Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson monopolize the ball; the other players go so long without having the ball, Webber said, that when they get it they are out of rhythm and don't know what to do. Arenas has the exact same effect on his teammates and it is sheer foolishness to not be able to recognize this.

The Cavs pushed the lead to 67-52 in the third quarter but the Wizards made one last run to cut the margin to 97-93 with less than a minute left in the game. The Wizards look their best when Arenas is either not in the game or when he plays within the context of their motion offense instead of trying to go on solo scoring missions. Washington fans were no doubt thrilled when a stumbling Arenas was bailed out because a foul was called on West with :57 left in the game. West did make contact with Arenas but it seemed like Arenas was losing his balance--and the ball--before the contact happened. Still, it was the correct call and Arenas drained both free throws. After James missed a jumper, Arenas got the rebound, dribbled downcourt and again seemed to lose his balance before launching a fadeaway shot off of one foot. I imagine that Washington Coach Eddie Jordan was thinking, "No, no...yes!" as Arenas' fling hit the backboard and went in. I give Arenas credit for wanting the ball in that situation and making the shot but let's be honest: it was a bad, low percentage shot in a tie game with plenty of time left on the shot clock.

On the Cavs' final possession, Arenas left West alone in the corner to trap James. I would assume that is what Arenas was instructed to do, though Arenas did cost the Wizards a game this season in Milwaukee when he left a shooter unattended in the left corner. After West made what turned out to be the game-winning shot, the Wizards called timeout to advance the ball to halfcourt. Arenas received the inbounds pass but his three point shot fell short. Barkley later suggested that the play should have been called for Butler or Jamison since Arenas is not yet completely healthy. This is the Catch-22 that Arenas presents: he wants to play even though his presence is not helping the team and whenever he plays sooner or later he feels the need to dominate the ball, even if he goes through pass-first stretches. The only thing that will change next season when he is 100% healthy--assuming he does become 100% healthy, which I think is not a sure thing at this point--is that he will revert to dominating the ball even more; when he plays a pass-oriented style now I get the sense that this is not because his nature has changed but because he is not physically able to go out and jack up 20 shots. As long as Arenas is considered to be the main guy on the squad the Wizards will never be a legitimate contender; they will always simply be the "Gilbert Arenas Show."

After Cleveland's game one victory over Washington, LeBron James responded to a question about Washington's trash talking by saying, "93-86 (the final score) is the only words I need to say." In the same vein, "100-97" and "3 games to 1" are really all he needs to say now, although "34-12-7" also speak quite loudly.

Labels: Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler, Cleveland Cavaliers, Delonte West, Gilbert Arenas, LeBron James, Washington Wizards

posted by David Friedman @ 8:01 AM

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Wizards Bounce Back From Embarrassing Loss to Rout Cavs

Did the Cleveland Cavaliers and Washington Wizards switch jerseys prior to Washington's 108-72 game three win? During the Cavs' 116-86 game two victory it looked like Cleveland could do nothing wrong and Washington could do nothing right but the tables turned completely on Thursday night; the Cavs went from setting a franchise playoff record for biggest winning margin in game two to establishing a franchise playoff record for worst loss in game three. This was also the largest winning margin in a playoff game in Wizards/Bullets history. I sat next to Boston Celtics' scout Dave Wohl during game two and as time wound down I said to him that the funny thing about the NBA playoffs is that as bad as the Wizards looked they could very well win game three at home. Wohl smiled and agreed. All that these back to back blowouts prove is that momentum can really steamroll within a given game during the playoffs but that this momentum does not necessarily transfer to the next game. Danny Ainge once noted that it does not matter how many points you lose by because you start out the next game 0-0, not down by the margin that existed at the end of the previous game. Anyone who has closely followed the NBA playoffs over the years is well aware that there have been many times when a team wins by blowout only to lose the very next game, though reciprocal blowouts are not so common.

DeShawn Stevenson finally made his presence known for something other than running his mouth and waving his hand in front of his face; after scoring 15 points on 5-16 field shooting in the first two games, he led the Wizards with 19 points on 5-9 field goal shooting. Roger Mason also had his best game of the series, scoring 18 points on 8-14 field goal shooting. As Charles Barkley said, some players' games don't travel well; Wizards' players who could not hit the broad side of a barn with their shots in Cleveland played and shot with confidence in the friendly confines of home, while the reverse held true for many of the Cavs.

All-Stars Caron Butler (17 points on 7-14 shooting) and Antawn Jamison (15 points on 5-10 shooting) had solid games, while LeBron James led the Cavs with 22 points on 10-19 shooting. James also had seven rebounds, three assists and four turnovers. His teammates combined to shoot 19-54 (.352) from the field.

Gilbert Arenas started for the first time since returning to action after missing most of the season due to a knee injury. He scored two points on 1-2 field goal shooting, converting on a nice drive to the hoop and missing a deep three pointer. Arenas did not force shots and he made several gorgeous passes; in other words, he played the way that the Wizards need for him to play in order for the team to be successful. The long term problem for the Wizards--aside from the question of when and if he will again be at full strength physically--is that he played this way because he is not healthy enough to play in his typical wild, out of control manner, as indicated by the fact that his balky knee forced him to sit out for good after only 10 minutes of action. The Wizards did OK while he was in the game--he registered a +3 plus/minus number--but they did their best work after he was sidelined, which is when they blew the game open, extending an 11 point lead to 16 at halftime and then pushing it well past 20 in the third quarter. In case anyone misunderstands my longstanding take on Arenas, here it is in a nutshell: Arenas, when healthy, is an All-Star level player but he has never been an MVP-level player and he is an erratic, shoot first point guard who is not well suited to being the lead player on a championship contending team. Some Wizards' fans have deluded themselves into thinking that Arenas can lead Washington deep into the playoffs--apparently on the basis of the fact that the Wizards briefly held on to first place in the East during the 2006-07 season--completely disregarding the reality that Arenas has been with the team since 2003-04 and the Wizards have won exactly one playoff series during that entire time while never winning more than 45 games in a season. It is true that Arenas has missed a lot of games due to injury but why should that make people confident that he can even stay healthy, let alone perform at an elite level during a long season and then lead his team through several rounds of the playoffs? It is wishful thinking to believe that this is going to happen.

In my Cavs-Wizards series preview article for CavsNews.com, I predicted that this series would start out 2-2 before the Cavs prevail in six games. I said that the keys for the Cavs, as always, are the brilliance of LeBron James supplemented by team defense and rebounding, while the Wizards must focus on teamwork and ball movement on offense while limiting James to near his average on defense, thus forcing other Cavs to perform very well. I also predicted that--contrary to all suggestions from the Wizards--Arenas would rejoin the starting lineup, most likely in game three. So far, the series has played out according to the script that I described. The Cavaliers stayed true to their recipe for success in the first two games while at the same time the Wizards displayed little teamwork or poise. In game three, Arenas got the start just as I expected, though his impact on the result proved to be minimal. The Wizards moved the ball very well on offense and though James had a decent game the Wizards held him below his average and only one other Cavalier even scored in double figures: Devin Brown had 10 points on 2-8 field goal shooting.

Some people in Cleveland make fun of Coach Mike Brown when he speaks of taking things "one day, one game, one play at a time" and emphasizes the importance of not getting too high after wins or too low after losses--but LeBron James buys what Brown is selling, which means that everyone else on the roster does, too. Brown is right; most playoff series contain a lot of peaks and valleys and the team that stays the most mentally focused is more likely to win. The Cavs will shake off their game three loss just like the Wizards quickly moved past their game two loss. Game four will probably be the best played, most hotly contested game of the series to this point. No one from either side will admit this but the Cavs are playing with house money; if they lose they still have the opportunity to win game five at home and put the Wizards on the brink of elimination but if the Wizards lose then game three will amount to nothing more than some additional highlights for the season in review DVD. The Wizards have to win game four just to turn this series into a three game mini-series during which the Cavs will enjoy home court advantage.

Labels: Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler, Cleveland Cavaliers, Gilbert Arenas, LeBron James, Washington Wizards

posted by David Friedman @ 7:53 AM

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Wizards Cast Spell Over Celtics

The Washington Wizards are barely above .500 (41-37) and the Boston Celtics easily have the best record in the NBA (62-16) but with a 109-95 win on Wednesday the Wizards became the only team to beat Boston three times this season, claiming the season series by a 3-1 tally. Antawn Jamison led the way for Washington with 27 points and 11 rebounds and his third quarter throwdown over Kevin Garnett is sure to be replayed countless times. DeShawn Stevenson added 14 points and four assists, while Caron Butler filled up many spaces in the boxscore: 13 points, 10 assists, seven rebounds--and seven turnovers. Gilbert Arenas, playing in just his third game after returning from knee surgery, had 13 points, three assists, one rebound and four steals in 24 minutes off of the bench. He played fewer minutes than any of the starters but jacked up more shots than everyone on the team other than Jamison, shooting 5-14 from the field, including 1-5 from three point range. Paul Pierce had 28 points and seven assists in defeat, while Kevin Garnett produced 22 points, 14 rebounds and five assists. Ray Allen was the only other Celtic who reached double figures (13 points on 4-13 shooting).

After getting a lot of rest in Tuesday's win over Milwaukee, Garnett (31 minutes), Allen (37 minutes) and Pierce (37 minutes) all logged roughly their normal minutes but the Celtics but did not play with the intensity that has enabled them to lead the league in every significant defensive category; they are locked in as the number one overall seed in the Eastern Conference and, for better or worse, they are on cruise control until the postseason begins. Even with Arenas misfiring from all angles, the Wizards still shot 40-78 (.513) from the field, well above the .419 shooting percentage that the Celtics normally allow.

Jamison (+ 16), Butler (+11) and Roger Mason (+12 in only 11 minutes of action) posted the best plus/minus numbers for the Wizards; Arenas registered a +7, tied for fifth/sixth out of nine Washington players who saw action. You should not read too much into plus/minus numbers from just one game but in this particular instance the figures confirm the impression that I formed while I watched the game: the Wizards did fine when Arenas was in the game but they did just as well--or even better--when he was not in the game. The most noticeable positive contribution that Arenas made is that he played with tremendous energy, which should not be surprising considering that he sat out most of the season, has been champing at the bit to come back and is playing against players who have logged many more minutes this season than he has; Elgin Baylor and Michael Jordan each set all-time single game playoff scoring records after missing significant playing time during the preceding regular seasons and Baylor later said that the extra rest and lack of wear and tear were advantageous for him (he had been away due to military service, while Jordan was out due to a broken foot). Arenas displayed decent straight ahead burst but seemed a bit cautious when moving laterally and he noticeably did not attempt to leap explosively, eschewing several potential fast break dunk opportunities to either leave drop passes to teammates or simply lay the ball in the hoop himself.

Wizards Coach Eddie Jordan suggested after the game that we won't see the real Arenas until next October. That is probably true in terms of his minutes and his ability to make explosive moves but I think that in this game we did see a lot of the real Arenas; despite his talk of becoming more of a playmaker (and padding his assist totals by passing the ball when he had surefire layups), Arenas displayed the same shot selection that he has always had: questionable, at best. Arenas just shoots whenever he feels like it, with no regard for the flow of the game; sometimes he is hot and he has a big scoring night but many other times he shoots his team right out of games. His best minutes against Boston came in his first stint; Arenas scored on a nice drive and then he stole the ball and went coast to coast for a layup. After coming up short on a three pointer, Arenas picked up two more steals, on both occasions getting ahead of the pack only to drop off passes that resulted in easy scores for Butler and Andray Blatche. The Wizards were in the midst of a 10-5 run that tied the score at 18 before Arenas entered the game; when he checked out about nine minutes later the Wizards were up 42-27.

Arenas was not as productive when he returned to the game with 3:24 left before halftime and the Wizards enjoying a 50-40 lead. Paul Pierce hit a couple free throws that resulted from a foul committed when Arenas had still been out and on the next possession Arenas missed a pullup jumper. James Posey hit back to back three pointers, then Arenas dribbled around aimlessly before missing a jumper. Blatche corralled the rebound, Arenas received a pass and he missed a three pointer that he launched early in the shot clock. Washington led 55-53 at halftime. Arenas' energy and his steals helped the Wizards to build up a big lead but his erratic shot selection (2-7 field goal shooting) helped the Celtics to erase most of that lead. At halftime, Jamison said, "We still have a long way to go...We took some bad shots and didn't communicate on defense."

Arenas made his first appearance of the second half at the 4:46 mark of the third quarter. The Wizards had pushed their lead to 72-62. Arenas converted a nice driving layup, then missed a jumper. ESPN play by play announcer Mark Jones expressed surprise that some people say that the Wizards could be better off without Arenas and asked color commentator Jon Barry if he agrees that this is a "crazy" notion--but Barry did not dismiss the idea at all, saying of Arenas, "He's a wild card. You never know what you are going to get." What interests me about this exchange is how Jones acts like Arenas is on the same level as Kobe Bryant, Chris Paul, LeBron James and the handful of legitimate MVP candidates/franchise players in the NBA; it would indeed be "crazy" to say that you could take any of those players off of their teams and make those teams better--but injury did indeed take Arenas off of the Wizards for most of this season and the Wizards were not noticeably worse off; their record is much more negatively affected by Butler's absence than by whether or not Arenas plays, so it is perfectly reasonable to ask if the Wizards would be better off without Arenas: if they are without him by choice instead of because of an injury then they would replace him with a good player and/or a high draft pick.

Near the end of the third quarter, Arenas committed a charge, leading Barry to say that Arenas is "out of control." On the next two Washington possessions, Jamison and Stevenson each forced jumpers. When Arenas was out of action during this season, the Wizards ran some really nice plays featuring ball and player movement, so it was a bit jarring to see guys suddenly forcing shots. Playmakers like Steve Nash and Jason Kidd not only make good passes but their style of play encourages their teammates to run the floor and to make extra passes themselves; someone like Arenas has the opposite effect on team chemistry, making his teammates more inclined to force shots because they don't know when or where they will be getting the ball next. Arenas' fans will disagree with this sentiment completely but an objective observer can detect this--and the fact that Arenas made a couple passes in fast break situations does not change how he performs in the halfcourt or how his teammates react to that.

Arenas is a talented player who is capable of putting up big scoring numbers and in certain respects he must be granted the benefit of the doubt until he is completely recovered from his knee injury. However, the way that he is playing now in limited minutes is really not that much different from the way that he played before, so there is little reason to assume that the results will change any time soon: as Arenas' minutes increase he will have some big scoring outputs but he will also have some games during which he shoots an atrocious percentage and the Wizards will not likely ever be more than a .550 team (45-37) as long as he is the dominant personality on the roster.

Labels: Antawn Jamison, Boston Celtics, Caron Butler, Gilbert Arenas, Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Washington Wizards

posted by David Friedman @ 7:51 AM

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The Score, the Key Stat, the Bottom Line: Walking Wounded Edition

On Wednesday, injured stars Gilbert Arenas, Pau Gasol and Dirk Nowitzki returned to action. The Wizards went 3-5 with Arenas at the start of the season and he had been out of action since then because of a balky knee. When the Wizards went 9-5 in their first 14 games this season sans Arenas, I asked, "Is Gilbert Arenas the Most Overrated All-Star in the NBA?" The premise behind that question is that Arenas was touted in some quarters as an MVP candidate midway through the 2006-07 season yet his team, to put it charitably, did not seem worse without him in those 14 games; in fact, their record improved the second that he exited the lineup, but I gave Arenas some benefit of the doubt regarding the eight games he played because he clearly was not 100% healthy. Still, a 9-5 record represented a better winning percentage than the Wizards enjoyed in previous seasons even with a completely healthy Arenas, so it is certainly reasonable to question his value. Arenas' fans did not much appreciate that post, responding by praising his value, praising the improvement of his teammates this season (something that was not apparent until Arenas stopped playing) and suggesting that a larger sample size of games would reveal Arenas' true value. In one of my responses to my critics I pledged to reevaluate Arenas and the Wizards after a larger sample of games had been played this season. I have not written extensively about this subject since that time, but now that the season is almost over--and Arenas has just returned--it is worth examining the cold hard facts. This is what the numbers tell us about the Wizards over the past two seasons:

Record with Butler and without Arenas: 27-18 (.600)
Record with Arenas and with Butler: 40-32 (.556)
Overall Record: 79-78 (.503)
Record without Butler and without Arenas: 10-20 (.333)
Record with Arenas and without Butler: 2-8 (.200)

(all of these statistics are based on information found at Basketball-Reference.com)

Obviously, a complete analysis would require a game by game breakdown of the home/road schedule, strength of opposition, key players who were missing from the opposing team and so forth. Still, the overall pattern reinforces my initial premise: Arenas is overrated, at least in terms of his impact on winning. The Wizards have been at their best, by far, with Butler and without Arenas and they have been at their worst with Arenas and without Butler. The impression that I started to form last season and that has only been strengthened by subsequent events is that Butler, not Arenas, is the most valuable player on the team. It is also worth mentioning that the Wizards were 39-34 last season before both All-Stars were felled by season-ending injuries and they are 38-37 so far this season despite being without Arenas for virtually the entire campaign. Essentially, the Wizards are a .500 team with or without Arenas, so why should he be considered an MVP or max contract level player? Arenas puts up gaudy individual numbers but they have little apparent impact on the team's won/loss record.

The Score: Milwaukee 110, Washington 109

The Key Stat: Gilbert Arenas scored 17 points on 5-9 shooting while playing just under 20 minutes. He also had four turnovers and just two assists and he posted the worst plus/minus number (-8) of any player in the game.

The Bottom Line: On the last play of the game, Arenas inexplicably double-teamed a well covered Andrew Bogut, leaving his man--Ramon Sessions--wide open to nail the game winning jumper. When you score nearly a point a minute and have a negative plus/minus number that tends to suggest some defensive liabilities. During ESPN's Boston-Indiana telecast, Mark Jones mentioned that Arenas has vowed to be a pass-first player now. Hubie Brown replied, "It will be great if he disciplines himself to do that...He's got to fit in to their style of play right now." As he gets his strength and his stamina back Arenas will no doubt once again be able to score 25-plus points in 40 minutes but as long as he turns the ball over, thinks shot first instead of pass first and does not play good defense he will not have a major, positive effect on the team's won-loss record.

The Score: Dallas 111, Golden State 86

The Key Stat: Dallas outscored Golden State 44-16 in fast break points. Dirk Nowitzki had 18 points, five rebounds and no turnovers in 27 minutes of action in his first game back after sustaining ankle and knee injuries.

The Bottom Line: Another old theme that I have mentioned more than once here is that teams should not be afraid to run against the Warriors, something that Dallas demonstrated in an early season win against their playoff bete noire. Or, as Jon Barry put it during ESPN's telecast of Dallas' rout of Golden State yesterday, "Teams that run are always susceptible to be run on." The Warriors shot .384 from the field and .250 from three point range and the Mavericks wisely rebounded those misses and pushed the ball quickly up the court, not waiting to engage in trench warfare in the half court. Yes, it helps to have Jason Kidd (five points, 11 rebounds, 17 assists) handling the ball and making the decisions but the Mavs won two fast paced games against the Warriors earlier this season without Jason Kidd (the Warriors' only win versus the Mavs came last Sunday when Nowitzki was unable to play due to injury). Perhaps not every team has the right personnel or sufficient depth to run against the Warriors but it is the correct strategy for the Mavs and any other team that is able to do so. Teams that slow down their offensive attack against the Warriors often struggle because the Warriors will run on makes or misses; they play fast no matter what, so it makes sense for their opponents to get as many easy scores as possible.

The Score: L.A. Lakers 104, Portland 91

The Key Stat: Kobe Bryant led both teams in scoring (36 points) and rebounds (13) and he tied with Gasol for the team lead in assists (seven). Bryant shot 10-16 from the field and 12-13 from the free throw line and he had three steals and just one turnover. He scored 14 points in the fourth quarter to preserve the victory. Those stats are great but the number that stands out is his plus/minus rating: +25, 17 better than any other player in the game.

The Bottom Line: Gasol had 10 points, six rebounds and seven assists in his return to action. He not only provided a much needed boost but by starting and playing 32 minutes he relegated Ronny Turiaf to the bench role that much better suits him. Nevertheless, the driving force on this team is Bryant. He is the reason that the Lakers are contending for the top seed in the West despite all of the games that Gasol and Andrew Bynum have missed. Jonathan Abrams of the L.A. Times just wrote an interesting article in which he noted, "Among his peers, Bryant is overwhelmingly the most intimidating. In a recent Sports Illustrated poll of current NBA players asking who scares you the most, Bryant earned 35% of the vote, while the next four--Shaquille O'Neal, Kevin Garnett, LeBron James and Dwight Howard--combined for only 24%."

Labels: Caron Butler, Dallas Mavericks, Dirk Nowitzki, Gilbert Arenas, Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers, Pau Gasol, Washington Wizards

posted by David Friedman @ 10:29 AM

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Kobe Carries the Load Again While Lakers Wait for Gasol

Kobe Bryant scored 30 points on 10-15 field goal shooting as the L.A. Lakers never trailed en route to a 103-91 victory at Washington. Bryant set the tone early with 19 first quarter points, outscoring the Wizards single-handedly and propelling the Lakers to a 30-15 lead. He showcased his full repertoire, from driving dunks to spin moves to three pointers. If the situation had demanded it, Bryant could easily have scored 50 or more points. Antawn Jamison led the Wizards with 21 points and a game-high 11 rebounds, while ex-Laker Caron Butler had 15 points, seven assists and five rebounds.

If you listened to various prophets of doom, the Lakers were supposed to be sinking out of the playoff race right about now due to the absence of the injured Andrew Bynum. Instead, the Lakers have gone 5-5 without their promising young center, largely because Bryant has stepped his MVP-level game up another notch; in the last six games he is averaging 35.3 ppg and 8.8 rpg while shooting .558 from the field. Newly acquired Pau Gasol joined the Lakers in Washington and participated in warmups but did not play. He has been nursing a back injury and still needs to get familiar with some of the Lakers' offensive and defensive concepts. Gasol is expected to make his Laker debut on Tuesday in New Jersey.

This game was shown on NBA TV using the feed from the Wizards' broadcast crew, who made an interesting point late in the contest that bears repeating: Butler credits Bryant for being a mentor figure during Butler's time in L.A., saying that Bryant taught him how to be professional and how hard you have to work in practice to maximize your potential; the process that led to Butler becoming an All-Star in fact began when Butler was Bryant's teammate. This bit of knowledge corrects the misperception that Bryant somehow held back Butler's game. The Lakers acquired Butler from Miami along with Lamar Odom in exchange for Shaquille O'Neal but after just one season they dealt Butler to Washington for Kwame Brown because they thought that they needed a center. Brown was part of the package that just netted Gasol, so the long term ramifications of the O'Neal trade are still being worked out. As things stand now, the Lakers shed O'Neal and his huge salary to rebuild their frontline with Bynum, Odom and Gasol.

Thanks to Bryant, the Lakers remained a playoff team while GM Mitch Kupchak tinkered with the roster and they now are in a good position to eventually contend for a championship. There is no guarantee that this plan will work, just like there is no guarantee that Memphis' rebuilding plan will succeed, but this is what I meant all along when I kept insisting that the O'Neal trade should be looked at as a short term deal for Miami but a long term one for L.A. The Heat got one championship out of O'Neal but now face the prospect of having to completely overhaul the team, with the specter of Dwyane Wade possibly leaving hanging over their heads; the Lakers never hit rock bottom and are without question better off than they would have been if they had elected to keep O'Neal and thus let Bryant go in order to avoid exceeding the salary cap and having to pay the luxury tax. It is interesting that owner Jerry Buss adamantly refused to go into luxury tax territory to retain O'Neal's services but the Gasol trade does push the Lakers over the threshold; this lends credence to my theory that if O'Neal had paid more attention to his conditioning starting in 2002 (when he decided to let his toe injury heal "on company time") then the Lakers may have kept winning titles and Buss may have been more apt to spend enough money to retain O'Neal's services. Instead, Buss chose to save money a few years ago in order to invest it in Kobe Bryant and a younger frontline that should help Bryant turn the Lakers into contenders for the next few years.

Labels: Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler, Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers

posted by David Friedman @ 4:40 AM

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Sports Illustrated Questions Gilbert Arenas' Value

I recently asked, "Is Gilbert Arenas the Most Overrated All-Star in the NBA?" After all, his Washington Wizards started out 3-5 with him, then went 9-5 in their first 14 games without him; they've gone 2-3 since I made that post, so at 11-8 they have stayed above .500 without him for nearly a fourth of the season and that pace projects over 82 games to a 47-35 record, which would be better than Washington has ever done with a healthy Arenas (the recent downturn can at least partially be attributed to an injury to Antonio Daniels, Arenas' replacement). The Wizards were 39-34 last season before Arenas and Caron Butler were felled by season-ending injuries, so it's not like they were tearing up the NBA even with Agent Zero on the case. Arenas' legion of defenders popped up all over the internet to take up his cause, citing Arenas' gaudy individual statistics and suggesting that the Wizards' good fortune without Arenas is either (a) due to the overall improvement of the roster, (b) temporary or (c) a result of a soft schedule. Reason (a) suggests that the team should have done better in the early going even with a somewhat hobbled Arenas, while time will show us whether reasons (b) and (c) have any validity; of course, the latter two reasons somewhat contradict the first reason, which makes it sound like people are grasping at straws to avoid acknowledging that perhaps there are things about the way Arenas plays that are not conducive to building a team that is a consistent winner.

Chris Mannix offers his take on Arenas and the Wizards in the December 24 issue of Sports Illustrated (and, based on my experience, he should expect to receive a lot of, ahem, feedback):

How have the Wizards flourished without their leading scorer and primary ball handler? While Arenas' teammates publicly marvel at his skills, privately they acknowledge that they are much more focused without the eccentric Arenas--a constant locker room clown who lives for the spotlight--in the lineup. "Gilbert has a tendency to break off a play if he sees an opening or wants to shoot," says a scout. "Without him they are running that Princeton offense and they are getting wide-open looks."

Fans don't pay attention to whether or not Arenas breaks off plays and don't consider what kind of an impact that has on the team; they just see him score a lot of points and they embrace his quirky personality. On the other hand, scouts look at the game analytically. Some people who responded to my previous post about Arenas asked how could Arenas' absence be affecting the improved play of the team's big men, particularly on the glass. That may seem like a reasonable question but anyone who understands basketball realizes that inside players tend to play harder when they feel more involved in the offense and at least get to touch the ball once in a while at that end of the court; also, when a player takes shots that are outside the confines of the offense this leads to bad court balance, which can negatively affect a team's ability to rebound and defend.

Mannix mentions how well that Butler, Antawn Jamison and Brendan Haywood are playing. I don't dispute that the Wizards would not be winning games without their production; my point is that great players usually help everyone around them perform better, so it is a bit odd that so many Wizards players are thriving in Arenas' absence. Mannix raises the possibility that if the Wizards continue to do well without Arenas that perhaps General Manager Ernie Grunfeld will consider not re-signing Arenas and Jamison after this season and use the resulting $14 million in salary cap room to try to sign Elton Brand, Shawn Marion or Josh Smith. "The Wizards are obviously a more talented team with Arenas," Mannix concludes, "but thus far they've shown that they don't need him to win."

You know that something is wrong if Arenas' supporters--most of whom are obviously Wizards' fans--have to hope that their team does poorly the rest of the season without Arenas just to "prove" Arenas' critics to be wrong. My main point in my previous post about Arenas was simply that he is overrated and not truly an MVP level player. As for Mannix' contention, I don't know whether or not the Wizards would be better off long term without Arenas but isn't that a question that is at least worth asking? Did I miss the memo that declared Arenas to be an untouchable franchise player on the level of a Tim Duncan?

Labels: Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler, Gilbert Arenas, Washington Wizards

posted by David Friedman @ 5:16 AM

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Is Gilbert Arenas the Most Overrated All-Star in the NBA?

Gilbert Arenas is an All-Star, he has a popular blog and he is a fun-loving player who is a fan favorite. He is also the most overrated All-Star in the NBA. Note carefully how that sentence was phrased; I'm not saying that he is a bad player or even that he does not have All-Star level talent--but last season this guy was pumped up by the adoring media (including NBA.com, USA Today and the Washington Post, among others) as a top MVP candidate. The Wizards had the best record in the East for about a minute and a half while Detroit, Cleveland, Chicago and Toronto worked through various issues but most people seem to forget that the Wizards had already fallen to 39-34 before Arenas and Caron Butler suffered season-ending injuries. As strange as it may sound, the best thing that happened to maintain Arenas' reputation is that he got hurt and did not play in last year's playoffs, because for some reason a lot of people assume that the Wizards would have beaten the Cavaliers if Arenas had played--even though the Cavs eliminated the Wizards in the first round the previous year and even though the Cavs had clearly improved since then, as they demonstrated by beating Detroit four straight times in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Arenas got hurt again this season but Butler did not--and what has happened since Arenas was sidelined would be damaging to Arenas' reputation as an MVP-level player if members of the media simply reported what their own eyes should clearly be able to see. The Wizards started out 3-5 this year before Arenas injured his knee and they have gone 9-5 since he has been out, including a 104-91 victory over Miami on Thursday night. Butler, who had 19 points, 10 rebounds, five assists and four steals in that game, is averaging 22.6 ppg, 7.0 rpg and 2.6 apg while posting career-highs in field goal percentage (.512), three point field goal percentage (.451) and free throw percentage (.874). Antawn Jamison, who had 16 points and 16 rebounds against Miami, is averaging 21.1 ppg and 10.7 rpg, better than he has done in either category since becoming a Wizard. Great players are supposed to not only produce numbers for themselves but also make it easier for their teammates to get open shots--and that applies even more so to a supposedly elite point guard like Arenas who has the ball in his hands all the time. If Cleveland's recent struggles in LeBron James' absence prove his value--and they do to a certain extent, even though other Larry Hughes and Anderson Varejao were also out of the lineup at the same time--then doesn't the Wizards' success without Arenas at least suggest that maybe he is not quite as valuable as so many people think?

Here are two mitigating factors that Arenas-lovers might bring up: (1) Arenas was not completely healthy early in the season, so the 3-5 record does not reflect how the team would have done with him at full strength; (2) the Wizards may not be able to sustain their current level of play. I don't buy the first point because, as I noted, the Wizards were 39-34 last season before Arenas and Butler suffered their season-ending injuries and they were 42-40 the year before that with all three guys being healthy. The fact is that the Wizards have been mediocre for quite some time despite flanking Arenas with two legitimate All-Star level players. As for whether or not the Wizards can sustain their current pace, obviously no one can answer that for sure--but, watching them play, it does not look like a fluke that they are playing well.

During the Washington-Miami game, TNT's Reggie Miller said this about Arenas' replacement, Antonio Daniels: "I think he balances them out...When you had the three-headed monster you never knew where the shots were going to come from. Daniels gives them that balance. He understands that he is going to get the other guys involved and take his opportunities when they come to him." Later, play by play man Kevin Harlan observed that the Wizards seem to be more patient on offense without Arenas. "Very true," answered Miller.

It is obvious that the Wizards are not just treading water without Arenas but that they are playing much better without him--but that does not fit into the conventional wisdom narrative, so alternative explanations have to be sought: "When Gilbert Arenas is there, they are definitely a better team," Charles Barkley said during TNT's postgame show. Then he made a correct observation that completely contradicted his first statement: "They have much better movement of the ball (without Arenas). You saw Caron Butler say that. They have some good players on that team." Let's get this straight: the team has better ball movement without Arenas and is winning much more without him--but the Wizards are "definitely" better with him? That makes no sense.

Kenny Smith offered this defense of Arenas' value: "I don't think that we should be misguided to think that they're a better team without him. He is a guy who is a finisher, so in big games against great teams he is the one guy who can get his shot and make a play when no one else can. If you play a San Antonio, you might steal a game because he is a guy who in the fourth quarter can make two or three baskets. He brings that electricity, he brings that finishing element, to a team that is pretty good." It is true that Arenas has hit some big shots during his career but the overall numbers show that he shoots a lousy percentage and his team--which we now know has a lot of talented players--has had a mediocre record with him for quite some time. How do we know that Butler could not be a "finisher" in "big games"? Anyway, the Wizards are always around .500 with Arenas, so how many "big games" do they figure to play in during his career?

Barkley countered Smith by saying, "What he has to learn is--I always told myself that I was going to get every shot in the fourth quarter because I'm going to be a finisher--that's why he has to get Caron, Antawn, (DeShawn) Stevenson involved in the first couple quarters. Those guys can play...Great players, their job is to get other guys shots...I agree that they are not better without him but he's got to be a finisher but when your point guard takes a lot of shots the other guys are like--"and Barkley slumped his shoulders to pantomime their frustration. Smith responded that Arenas is really a shooting guard and Barkley agreed but noted correctly that Washington has been using him as a point guard.

The most accurate statement that has been made about the Wizards is a quote from Butler that appeared in Thursday's USA Today: "You look across the board, everybody playing has gotten better since Gilbert went down." I'm sure that Butler did not mean to take a shot at Arenas but rather to praise how much his teammates have stepped up but think about the literal meaning of what he said: everybody is playing better without Arenas--how could that possibly happen if Arenas is in fact the MVP not just of his team but the entire league? Would everybody on the Suns play better if Steve Nash were out for a month? What about the Spurs and Tim Duncan?

Labels: Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler, Gilbert Arenas, Washington Wizards

posted by David Friedman @ 6:27 AM

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Butler Does it, Washington Improves to 5-4 Without Arenas

Gilbert Arenas is out of action for at least three months due to his two knee surgeries--including a microfracture procedure--but the Washington Wizards are actually playing better without "Agent Zero." Caron Butler scored 29 points on 10-18 field goal shooting as Washington defeated Toronto 101-97; Butler also had seven assists, three rebounds, three steals and no turnovers. The Wizards are now 5-4 this season without Arenas after only going 3-5 while he was in the lineup. Butler is putting up the best numbers of his career by far in all three shooting categories and is scoring a career-best 23.0 ppg. Antawn Jamison also had a big game against Toronto, producing 28 points and 14 rebounds. Jamison shot 11-18 from the field, including nine straight makes after a slow start. Both Butler and Jamison shoot a better percentage from the field than Arenas does, so maybe one thing that we are finding out is that when Arenas returns the Wizards would be better off if "Agent Zero" shot less--particularly the long jumpers that he loves to launch early in the shot clock--and passed more to Butler and Jamison. Butler has blossomed into a multidimensional player who can score inside and out and who also rebounds, defends and passes well.

Last year, Arenas was touted in some quarters as an MVP candidate. If he is truly that valuable then it would be logical to expect that in his absence Butler and Jamison would not only be attracting more defensive attention but that they would also suffer without Arenas' playmaking; that combination of factors should lead to lower shooting percentages for both players. However, Butler has shot 78-143 (.545) from the field in the nine games without Arenas and Jamison has shot 84-66 (.506) from the field in those contests, well above both of their career averages, better than they have ever shot while playing with Arenas and better than every season in their respective careers except one (Jamison shot .535 from the field in 2003-04 while playing for Dallas). One could argue that this is a small sample of games but, at least in terms of this season, it is a balanced sample (eight games with Arenas, nine games without him). It will be interesting to continue to monitor the Wizards' progress as a team as well as the numbers posted by Butler and Jamison.

The Raptors were also missing their most celebrated player and they were obviously affected by the absence of Chris Bosh (who has a strained groin muscle) much more acutely than the Wizards were bothered by the loss of Arenas. Jason Kapono led the Raptors with 23 points and surprising rookie Jamario Moon had a double double (16 points, 13 rebounds) but Andrea Bargnani (four points, 2-13 field goal shooting) had an awful game and Toronto shot just .432 from the field.

At halftime, the Wizards retired Earl Monroe's number 10 jersey. He is just the fourth Wizard/Bullet to have his number retired, joining Gus Johnson, Elvin Hayes and Wes Unseld. Monroe, a Hall of Famer and one of the NBA's 50 Greatest Players, spent the first four seasons of his career with the franchise, then known as the Baltimore Bullets. He was the 1968 Rookie of the Year and he made the 1969 All-NBA First Team after averaging 25.8 ppg. The Bullets traded Monroe to the New York Knicks in 1971 and he formed the "Rolls Royce" backcourt with fellow Hall of Famer Walt Frazier as the Knicks captured the 1973 NBA title. During this year's All-Star Weekend in Las Vegas, Monroe shared with me his memories of playing against various ABA teams--including Dr. J's New York Nets--in some hotly contested interleague preseason games. The Knicks retired his number 15 jersey in 1986, so Monroe is now just the eleventh NBA player to have his jersey retired by at least two teams. Several of Monroe's contemporaries were on hand for the ceremony, including Mike Davis, Mike Riordan, Archie Clark, Kevin Loughery, Phil Chenier and Wes Unseld. Davis also played briefly in the ABA and I had a chance to speak with him at the ABA Reunion during the 2005 All-Star Weekend in Denver.

During the third quarter, Monroe joined announcers Chenier and Steve Buckhantz at the broadcast table to talk about the ceremony and his great career. Monroe explained how he developed his unique playing style: "It was all trial and error for me because I started at the age of 14. Other guys had been playing (from a younger age). What I did was just go to the playgrounds, try this and try that. If it worked, I kept it; if it didn't work I just discarded it." Monroe was not a high flyer but he mastered the spin move and was able to get a shot off against anybody at any time. Chenier described Monroe's style as "herky jerky" because he always had his defender off balance; it has been said that Monroe himself did not know what he was going to do before he did it so his defender had no way of knowing, either. Chenier said that Jamison uses some Monroe-like moves and he also showed some film clips of Tony Parker and LeBron James utilizing spin moves to good effect but I think that the current player whose game is most reminiscent of Monroe's may be Sam Cassell. Like Monroe, Cassell is not a high flyer but he is a master at getting his defender off balance and figuring out how to get off a good shot in any situation.

Labels: Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler, Earl Monroe, Gilbert Arenas, Jamario Moon, Jason Kapono, Toronto Raptors, Washington Wizards

posted by David Friedman @ 12:05 AM

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