20 Second Timeout

Butler Did It: Heat Dominate 76ers, Advance to the Eastern Conference Finals

The Butler did it, while Joel Embiid and James Harden watched. Full credit to the winners first, and then we will turn our attention to the losers. Jimmy Butler did not have a great first half, but he did not quit, and he dominated in the second half to finish with a game-high 32 points plus eight rebounds and four assists. Max Strus scored 20 points, grabbed a team-high 11 rebounds, and dished for five assists. P.J. Tucker scored 12 points and it seemed like he grabbed every loose ball (he ended up with nine rebounds, including four offensive rebounds). Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro chipped in 10 points each. The Heat were without the services of injured All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry, but they did not whine and they did not make excuses; the Heat went into what is supposed to be a hostile environment facing a player who talks about being the MVP and a player who has previously been named the MVP, and the Heat dismantled the 76ers, 99-90. The game was not nearly as close or competitive as that score may suggest, because by midway through the third quarter everyone in the building knew that the 76ers had no chance: the Philadelphia fans booed, and then many of them went home before the final buzzer.

I remember when I first started covering the NBA in person, and I watched a little known assistant coach named Erik Spoelstra working out before games with a young Dwyane Wade. Pat Riley built Heat culture first as a coach and then as a front office leader, but Spoelstra deserves a lot of credit for being a head coach who not only gets the most out of his star players but who also develops the skills of the lesser known players on the team. Spoelstra's teams consistently play hard and smart.

There will be plenty of time to say more about the Heat, a professional organization from top to bottom that is making its second Eastern Conference Finals appearance in three years. The 76ers are, to put it mildly, not in the same class as the Heat from top to bottom. As Jalen Rose said after the game, "I can't believe that Philly quit like that." Embiid and Harden disappeared during an embarrassing 120-85 game five loss and they did not show up for game six, either. James Harden's sorry history in elimination games is well-documented and he added another ignominious chapter to his book of playoff implosions. The amazing thing is that, other than the specific statistics and quotes, I could have written this game recap before the game began--and I actually put together the basic template before the game began, because I knew that Harden would play poorly and I knew that his team would lose. In fact, I predicted Harden's playoff implosion months ago, right after the 76ers acquired him: 

The fit with Embiid and Harden looks clunky: they are two players who love playing isolation ball and who do not provide much value offensively when they are not playing isolation ball.

It will be amusing watching Harden's inevitable playoff collapse ensure that the 76ers are not rewarded for trying to "tank to the top."

The Embiid-Harden duo enjoyed a brief honeymoon period, but I was not impressed, nor did I change my assessment of Harden:

Harden has already proven throughout his career who he is and what he is about. The evidence is available for everyone to see: the sulking, the whining, and the pouting, plus the playoff performances featuring poor shooting and high turnover numbers, especially in elimination games. It is interesting that so many people believe that he is going to magically transform himself into a champion. Is it impossible? No, it is not impossible, but that is not the point; the point is whether or not such a transformation is likely, based on the available evidence.

Since Harden sulked, whined, and pouted his way out of Oklahoma City in 2012, the player proclaimed by Daryl Morey to be the greatest scorer in pro basketball history has compiled an 8-9 record in playoff series. Harden has not reached the NBA Finals since leaving Oklahoma City, he has played in just two Conference Finals in nine years, and he has lost in the first round three times.

Overall, Harden has shot .420 or worse from the field in 15 of his 25 career playoff series, and he has shot .420 or worse from the field in 46 of his 137 career playoff games. Harden has played in four game sevens since leaving Oklahoma City; here are his field goal percentages in those games: 7-20, 12-29, 4-15, 5-17. Remarkably, his teams went 2-2 in those games despite his awful shooting--and we know that he was not making up for this by playing good defense, so this indicates that Harden had a lot of help, contradicting the notion that he had to do everything himself. If Harden had been more productive and efficient--if Harden was as good as Morey proclaims--then Harden would have already won a championship.

If Harden is effective and efficient during the 2022 playoffs then he will be breaking the performance trend that he has established throughout his NBA career. If Harden makes it through the rest of the season and the playoffs without finding some person, teammate, or situation to sulk, whine, and pout about then he will be changing the mindset that he has established and maintained throughout his career.

Watching Harden in the playoffs in the 2010s and 2020s is the opposite from what I experienced watching the Michael Jordan-Scottie Pippen Chicago Bulls in the 1990s; I knew that somehow those teams would win—and they usually did—just like I know that somehow Harden will play poorly when it matters most, and his teams will lose.

Harden did not play poorly overall in the first half of game six (11 points on 4-7 field goal shooting, five assists, one turnover), but a couple of the little plays that Harden made (or failed to make) in the first half reveal so much about his mentality: the pass he made with the shot clock about to expire in a vain (in both senses of the word) attempt to preserve his field goal percentage, and the offensive rebound that he gave up to Tyler Herro by failing to either box out or pursue the ball. People who evaluate players and teams primarily by looking at numbers without watching how players and teams perform from play to play will consistently fail to understand the game.

I did not change my game recap template after Harden's decent first half, because I had a good idea what would happen next, though I must say that in many ways Harden exceeded my expectations: he did not score a point in the second half, shooting 0-2 from the field, and he had nearly as many turnovers (three) as assists (four). Add it all up, and Harden finished with 11 points, nine assists, and four turnovers while shooting 4-9 from the field. Yes, he had the same number of turnovers and made field goals. The great thing about competition is that after media members construct narratives and "stat gurus" manipulate numbers there still is nowhere to hide on the court: either you step up and perform, and or you shrink under pressure, and everyone can see what you do/who you are. Harden has been doing this consistently for nearly 10 years, and yet there are still people who will either (1) refuse to acknowledge the truth or (2) make excuses for Harden/assert that Harden used to play well in the playoffs but that he is old now.

Joel Embiid was aggressive but not efficient in the first half, scoring 14 points on 5-14 field goal shooting. He settled for too many jump shots and too many off balance shots; he was most effective when he went into the paint. We know that he is playing hurt, and if we did not know that then he reminded us by falling down every other play; honestly, I have never seen a skilled athlete fall down that much in one basketball game. The old school mantra is simple: if you are injured then you cannot play, but if you play then you don't make excuses. Wilt Chamberlain won the 1972 Finals MVP with a broken hand. Kobe Bryant won multiple games, series, and championships with a host of ailments.

In the second half, Embiid was less aggressive and even less efficient, scoring six points on 2-10 field goal shooting to finish with 24 points plus a game-high 12 rebounds. It was not an MVP level performance, and consequently Embiid has yet to advance past the second round. "Tanking to the Top" is more accurately called "Tanking to Losing in the Second Round."

It was a treat to listen to Hubie Brown call the game. He does not bash players or teams, but he honestly describes what he sees, and he said a lot about both teams during this lopsided contest. Brown praised the Heat for how hard they play, how disciplined they are, and how well they followed the game plan at both ends of the court--and Brown pointed out that the 76ers were consistently outhustled while playing without much game plan discipline at both ends of the court.

The 76ers' second half collapse is even more pathetic considering that the Heat only led 49-48 at halftime. There is no reason for the 76ers to not be competitive in the second half of a close elimination game at home but, as Rose said, the 76ers quit.

With the season on the line, Harden started the third quarter by dribbling the ball out of bounds off of his foot, and then fouling Butler on a made two point jump shot. Harden clearly hit Butler on his elbow, but Harden complained like it was the worst foul call ever--which is hilarious considering how Harden built much of his legacy and reputation on benefiting from phantom foul calls on players trying to guard him. Perhaps Harden received so much charity from the officials over the years that he has grown to believe that he is entitled to even more charity. Butler made the free throw to complete the three point play, part of Miami's 12-2 run to start the quarter.

If one play epitomized a player, a team, and a series, it happened at the 4:58 mark of the third quarter with the Heat leading 66-52. Harden made a lazy crosscourt pass that Adebayo easily picked off. Adebayo dribbled coast to coast to score, while Harden jogged behind him exerting no effort to contest the shot or commit a foul to prevent an easy score. Philadelphia Coach Doc Rivers disgustedly called a timeout, and 76ers' fans serenaded their lackluster team with loud boos. A little later in the third quarter, Hubie Brown declared of the 76ers, "They're getting outworked, and it's embarrassing." During a typically disjointed offensive possession by the 76ers, Brown muttered, "Come on, what are we running here?" What the 76ers ran for their last play of the quarter was Harden dribbling around aimlessly before passing to Embiid at the top of the key. Embiid did some more aimless dribbling before missing a fadeaway three pointer, which is a wonderful shot for a seven foot tall center to take at any time, let alone when his team is trailing 74-63 in an elimination game. There is a huge difference between saying that you want to be the MVP, and actually being the MVP. 

Butler scored 14 third quarter points on 6-9 field goal shooting. The 76ers scored 15 third quarter points on 6-21 field goal shooting. Remember the story about Butler supposedly taking a team of four second stringers or third stringers and winning a scrimmage game versus Minnesota's starters before the Timberwolves got rid of Butler? I imagine that this third quarter looked something like that scrimmage, with Embiid and Harden playing the role of starters being schooled by Butler (with no disrespect meant to the other Heat players, who played very well alongside Butler).

Despite their horrific play, the 76ers were still within striking distance at home with 12 minutes to go. As Hubie Brown said, "There is plenty of time, but you have to show some organization here." Would the 76ers play hard, play smart, and save their season? This is a team led by Embiid and Harden, so what do you think happened? Bad shots, turnovers, and no transition defense. During a timeout, Rivers pleaded with his team, "Fight for this!" The 76ers trudged back on the court, and continued to take bad shots, turn the ball over, and not get back on defense. By this time, fewer boos could be heard--because the fans were heading for the exits. 

Tyrese Maxey and Shake Milton keyed a 7-0 run to cut the margin to 94-83, but that just amounted to window dressing--not that Maxey and Milton should not be credited for playing hard, but rather that two players playing hard for a brief spurt was not going to change the outcome. On the next possession, the Heat ran the shot clock all the way down before Gabe Vincent hit a dagger three pointer, and a moment later Brown said of the 76ers, "They're defeated now." Rivers waved the white flag with about a minute to go, pulling his starters out of the game; as Rose noted, that is not a great look for a coach or a team during an elimination game: what did the 76ers have to lose by fouling, extending the game, and not giving up? Apparently, they all thought that they had more important ways to spend the rest of the evening.

In the second half, Butler scored 23 points on 10-19 field goal shooting. Embiid had six points on 2-10 field goal shooting, while Harden scored no points on 0-2 field goal shooting. Remember all of that talk about Embiid and Harden being the next Shaq and Kobe? Remember Embiid saying that he never scored more easily than he did after Harden joined the team? Remember Daryl Morey refusing to trade Ben Simmons for C.J. McCollum or anyone else because he stubbornly insisted on waiting until he could acquire Harden? Let's not pretend that these foolish statements and comically bad player evaluations happened a long time ago.

Despite Harden's lackluster effort and performance, don't be surprised if Morey fires Rivers, brings in Mike D'Antoni to be the coach, and then gives Harden a max extension for over $200 million. Such moves would be par for the course for a franchise that never misses an opportunity to make a poor strategic decision: the 76ers traded Butler to Miami three years ago to hand the keys over to Ben Simmons, who they traded earlier this season to acquire Harden, so the bottom line is that the 76ers gave up Butler to get Harden. "Stat gurus" rarely admit to being wrong, so it would be shocking if Morey gives up on Harden, who he proclaimed to be a greater scorer than Michael Jordan. I don't recall Jordan ever shooting 0-2 from the field in the second half of an elimination game, but how could my knowledge of NBA history and player analysis possibly measure up to the knowledge and analytical capabilities of such an accomplished front office leader as Daryl Morey?

Labels: Daryl Morey, Doc Rivers, Erik Spoelstra, James Harden, Jimmy Butler, Joel Embiid, Max Strus, Miami Heat, Philadelphia 76ers

posted by David Friedman @ 11:25 PM

8 comments

Lukewarm Heat on Pace for 47 Wins

"Just do your job, be reliable, let go of your ego. You are going to need each other in the second half."--Miami Coach Erik Spoelstra speaking to his team during halftime of the Heat's 112-107 loss to the Boston Celtics

"We're the best 5-4 team in the league."--Dwyane Wade, after the Miami Heat's 112-107 loss to the Boston Celtics

"For myself, 44 minutes is too much. I think Coach Spo(elstra) knows that. Forty minutes for D-Wade is too much. We have to have as much energy as we can to finish games out."--LeBron James, after Miami's 112-107 loss to the Boston Celtics

"He (Coach Erik Spoelstra) wants to work, we want to chill."--Chris Bosh, after the Miami Heat defeated the Phoenix Suns 123-96

"The young players and new players come to a team and see what players dictate the culture. They say, 'I want to be like that guy.' So you need the right culture...If your highest-paid players don't work out, don't pay attention in the film room--that sends a message to the rest of the team. It means all that matters is talent, not character. But if your best players do the extra work in the summer, stay around after practice--then it carries over to the rest of the team."--Clay Matthews, four-time Pro Bowl linebacker for the Cleveland Browns

A picture may be worth 1000 words but sometimes a few quotations--not taken out of context, but rather placed into appropriate context--literally speak volumes. The above quotations tell us several things:

1) It is not a good sign that the season has barely started and Coach Spoelstra already has to implore the Heat players to keep their egos in check. Wouldn't you love to hook Coach Spoelstra up to a lie detector and find out whose egos he was talking about? During the summer, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh portrayed themselves as Three Musketeers who are willing to sacrifice in order to win not just one title but to capture multiple championships; if big egos are already emerging as a problem now then what will happen when the team faces real adversity in a playoff series?

2) LeBron James and Dwyane Wade do not seem to understand just how much they helped fuel high expectations (and much resentment) by prancing around on stage while pledging to turn the Heat into the league's next dynasty.

3) I cannot recall ever hearing an MVP level player complaining about playing too many minutes; usually the opposite happens: MVP level players generally lobby for more playing time while their coaches have to force them to get some rest; Allen Iverson hated to ever come out of a game and last season Kobe Bryant said that he did not worry when the Lakers' bench sputtered because if things got too out of hand he would just get up and check himself back in the game.

4) Charles Barkley never played on a championship team but he made a very insightful comment when he said that the Heat players do not understand just how hard players have to work to build a championship team. Can you imagine Kobe Bryant saying that he just wants to "chill"?

5) Matthews' statement referred to his early experiences with the Cleveland Browns when some veteran mentors taught him how to be a professional on and off the field but the sentiments that he expressed apply not just to football but also to basketball and other sports: the best players set the tone for how a team practices and plays.

*****

ESPN.com reporter Brian Windhorst--the former Cavs beat writer who, like James, has taken his talents to South Beach--recently said that he felt "mildly ashamed" for voting for James as the 2010 regular season MVP. Windhorst contends that James did not quit but that James "choked" (Windhorst's exact word) versus Boston in the 2010 playoffs and that James' inability to rise to the occasion in the postseason when the Cavs were favored speaks very poorly of James. What exactly is Windhorst trying to say/prove? Even if James "choked" (as opposed to quitting, which is what James actually did) how does that change the reality that James was the league's best player during the 2010 regular season? Furthermore, if Windhorst truly based (or intends to base) his MVP ballot on a player's postseason resume then he should have never voted for James over Bryant in the first place, because James has never had a better postseason resume than Bryant.

Windhorst is trying to convince readers that he is independent from ESPN censorship and that he is willing to criticize James--but don't be shocked if by the end of the season Windhorst changes his tune again and suddenly declares that James should once again be the MVP. Windhorst is actually one of the better beat writers currently covering the NBA but that says more about the status of that profession than the inherent merits of his work (if the standards were set where they should be then he would be considered a solid beat writer instead of being one of the top beat writers).

Unless LeBron James and/or someone with inside knowledge of last year's Cavs tells the truth we will never know exactly why the league's best regular season player and the league's best regular season team completely melted down versus the Celtics, collapsing at home in game five and then not even bothering to play the "foul game" (intentionally fouling to stop the clock, hoping that the opponent misses at least one free throw) at the end of game six; I saw preseason games this year in which teams played the "foul game" down the stretch, so it is incomprehensible that the Cavs just laid down and died when facing elimination by Boston. However, I do not buy Windhorst's take that James "choked"; that implies that James tried--tried too hard, in fact--when the reality is that James looked disinterested: it seemed like James could not wait for the series to be over so he could take off his Cleveland jersey for the last time, which he did while walking off of the court after game six, not even waiting until he got to the locker room--an action that turned out to foreshadow his eventual "Decision."

In the absence of conflicting evidence/testimony, I feel quite comfortable saying that LeBron James dedicated himself last season not to leading the Cleveland Cavaliers to an NBA title but rather to creating as much suspense and drama as he possibly could around his impending "Decision." When his Cavaliers had an opportunity to seize control of their playoff series versus Boston with a home win in game five, James quit and the Cavaliers suffered their worst home playoff loss in franchise history. James played at an MVP level during the past two regular seasons and for much of his postseason career but he performed disgracefully on and off the court during the Boston series and then during the drawn out "Decision" process. I once wrote admiringly about LeBron James' accelerated growth curve; last spring and summer that growth curve trended downward more dramatically than the U.S. economy--but, unlike some people, I have no intention of engaging in revisionist history: James' growth curve during his first several seasons was indeed quite remarkable, I thought that he performed slightly better than Kobe Bryant during the 2009 regular season and I thought that James outperformed Bryant by a wider margin in the 2010 regular season. James was a very worthy winner of the 2009 and 2010 regular season MVPs (Bryant deserved that honor in 2006 and 2007, while Shaquille O'Neal should have gotten the trophy in 2005 but I addressed those injustices in previous articles that can easily be found in this site's archives).

For many years, Cleveland writers fell over themselves declaring that James was a better, more unselfish player than Bryant; I told a much more nuanced and honest story, namely that Bryant has the most complete skill set of any NBA player, while James is bigger and more athletic but has certain skill set weaknesses: an objective comparison of the two players must weigh Bryant's complete skill set versus James' combination of athletic gifts/skill set limitations. As James improved his defense, free throw shooting and perimeter shooting I correspondingly adjusted my relative rankings of the league's top two players and by the end of the 2009 regular season I felt like James had moved ahead of Bryant slightly, at least in terms of being consistently productive over an 82 game season. Bryant reasserted his dominance during the 2009 playoffs and during the first month and a half of the 2010 regular season but over the course of the entire 2010 regular season James was the league's best and most consistent player.

My writing has never been tainted by a bias toward a player or a team, so I can look back with pride at everything that I have said regarding Bryant, James and the league's other great players; my articles will stand the test of time a lot better than articles written by people who change their rankings based on what team they cover, who they write for or other factors that have nothing to do with on court performance.

*****

The "best 5-4 team in the league" is now 8-6, tied with Atlanta for 4th-5th in the Eastern Conference, two games ahead of 8th seeded Cleveland; the Heat are tied for the 10th best record in the NBA, a half game behind the Chicago Bulls and a half game ahead of the Denver Nuggets and Golden State Warriors. The Heat are on pace for 47 victories--two more wins than the 2006 Lakers accomplished with the famous power trio of Kobe Bryant, Lamar Odom and Smush Parker; yes, Odom and Parker ranked second and third on the Lakers in minutes played that season, with Kwame Brown finishing fourth--and the media "experts" placed Bryant fourth in MVP voting!

The Heat are 6-3 at home but just 2-3 on the road and only one of their wins is against a team that currently has a better than .500 record (the Orlando Magic, who played the Heat very competitively until Vince Carter suffered an injury that caused him to miss the entire second half of the game). Yes, it is early in the season, Dwyane Wade only played three minutes in the preseason and the Heat have suffered injuries to Wade, Udonis Haslem and Mike Miller but several patterns have emerged so far: the Heat lack mental and physical toughness, they are regularly abused by opposing point guards and centers, they have no post up game to speak of and they have difficulty defending opposing post players. None of those traits scream "championship." It was ridiculous for anyone to suggest that the Miami Heat, as currently constructed, could win 70 games in a season, let alone break the all-time record of 72-10 set by the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls; I have tremendous respect for Jeff Van Gundy but if he really believed what he said about the Heat prior to the season (as opposed to simply ramping up pressure on the Heat to help out his brother Stan down in Orlando) then he was suffering from temporary insanity. The 1996 Bulls won 72 games because Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen thought that every game was worth winning; that type of competitiveness and professional pride is the antithesis of everything that we have seen and heard from James, Wade and Bosh. It is not too late for Jeff Van Gundy to apologize to Jordan, Pippen and the Bulls for comparing them to the Heat.

James seemed to be a self motivated player who was methodically eliminating his skill set weaknesses but the picture that is emerging now is that he is a high maintenance player who is more about style than substance. Adrian Wojnarowski's report--which to the best of my knowledge has never been contradicted or refuted--that James conducted himself so boorishly and immaturely that Team USA officials seriously considered not putting him on the 2008 Olympic Team is a devastating indictment levied at the league's most physically gifted player. James' public assertion--which he later clumsily tried to downplay--that Coach Spoelstra should not have played James for 44 minutes versus Boston is just another indicator that James does not understand what it takes to be a champion and that he is also quick to blame others for his failures (somewhere former Cleveland Coach Mike Brown must have been smiling knowingly when James threw Spoelstra under the bus).

*****

During the offseason we heard a whole bunch of nonsense, including predictions that James would average a triple double this season and assertions that Wade is the team's best player and would lead the Heat in scoring while James reduced his scoring and played like Magic Johnson.

Averaging a triple double for an entire season is almost impossible considering the pace of the current NBA game; there just are not enough possessions for one player to consistently post double figure scoring, rebounding and assist totals. Moreover, averaging a triple double is not a good goal for a player to set; some people say that this is an unselfish goal but I disagree: if a player is focused on that then in each game he is going to concentrate on piling up certain statistics even if his team needs him to fill a different role--you don't want your best player giving up easy shot opportunities so that he can pass the ball just for the sake of trying to accumulate assists.

Regardless of how fans feel about James or the idiotic methods that some media members use to determine who a team's leader supposedly is, James is in fact the Heat's best player. As I explained last year, "Wade is a mini-James: they have similar skill set strengths (explosiveness, court vision, finishing in the paint) and share the same major weakness (outside shooting). However, I'd take Bryant or James over Wade unless or until Wade's skill set is markedly better than theirs, because Wade's height is a disadvantage."

James is certainly not Magic Johnson! Jason Kidd is the closest thing to a modern Magic Johnson, but just like Wade cannot be as good as James because Wade is five inches shorter (at least), Kidd can never be as dominant as Johnson was simply because Kidd is so much smaller. Johnson was a pass first player who put his teammates in the best possible positions to succeed; Johnson was also a cutthroat competitor with a genius level basketball IQ. During his NBA career James has always been a shoot first player who is reluctant to make passes that do not pad his assist totals. James and Wade accumulate large assist totals because they completely monopolize the ball; they are both used to dominating the ball and are comically unable to be effective when they are relegated to playing off of the ball. I am not saying that James and Wade are bad passers; clearly, they both possess good passing skills--but they are not pass first players, they are not heirs to Magic Johnson and they are not point guards.

The Miami offense largely consists of James "getting his," followed by Wade "getting his." The other players pick up the table scraps. It is hilarious to recall how much criticism Mike Brown received for Cleveland's offense the past few seasons. Last year, the Cavs ranked second in scoring differential, ninth in points scored and third in field goal percentage. Brown figured out how to make the Cavs a very efficient offensive team even though James cannot play without the ball and generally refuses to post up despite having a pronounced physical advantage over everyone who guards him.

Here is Charley Rosen's take on James' performance down the stretch in Miami's second loss to Boston:

From the left baseline, LeBron’s shot hit the side of the backboard. Not an easy accomplishment, but surely an embarrassing one that emphasized James’ extremely erratic stroke.

Despite his spectacular failures in the clutch, LBJ scanned the postgame stat sheet and remarked that his 44 minutes of daylight were "too much."

So, this 26-year-old strongman, who needed to dig a little deeper into his considerable bag of skills in order for his team to win a critical game, essentially was putting the onus on Erik Spoelstra and shunning any personal responsibility.

Call me a LeBron hater if that makes you feel better.

*****

It is interesting to observe how blatantly certain writers and commentators reveal their agendas. One recent example of this is a certain yahoo's prediction that the Cavs would only win 12 games this year, an assertion based not on logic but rather on the ludicrous premise that LeBron James is worth more than 40 wins (the same yahoo joined the chorus that predicted that the Heat would win 70 games).

Many "stat gurus" have insisted that LeBron James is not just the league's best player but that he is far superior to Kobe Bryant and those same "stat gurus" generally suggest that Dwyane Wade is also superior to Bryant. It is only natural for those "stat gurus" to assume that pairing up James and Wade would produce a dominant NBA team--but what we have seen so far is that the Heat are frontrunners: they win at home and against teams that they can overwhelm physically/intimidate psychologically but they crumble on the road and against teams that are mentally/physically tough.

Some readers scoffed when I said last summer that James may never play for a better team than last year's Cavs. The Cavs were a deep, well balanced team; they beat the defending (and future) champion Lakers in both meetings last year, pounding the Lakers so badly in L.A. that the Staples Center fans were booing and throwing objects on to the court. This year's Heat team has a more talented trio than last year's Cavs but the Heat lack size, depth and balance (the Cavs not only went 10-plus deep but they had depth at every position).

I have made this point many times but it simply cannot be overstated (particularly since the mainstream media largely refuses to acknowledge it): Pau Gasol was not considered an elite player prior to joining the Lakers but teaming up with Kobe Bryant has transformed him into a likely future Hall of Famer. Gasol's skill set has not changed much (he added some strength after the 2008 NBA Finals so that he could better hold his ground in the post) and his statistics are essentially the same except for increases in field goal percentage and offensive rebounding (thanks primarily to Bryant drawing double teams and creating easy opportunities for Gasol) but Gasol is perceived differently now because he is more comfortable playing one on one as the second option as opposed to carrying the burden of attacking double teams as Memphis' top option. If you believed the narrative that the "stat gurus" have constructed about James and Wade then you had to think that James and Wade would have an even more dramatically positive effect on Bosh, whose pre-Miami career was more effective and much more decorated (five All-Star selections, one All-NBA selection, seventh in 2007 MVP voting) than Gasol's pre-L.A. career (one All-Star selection, no All-NBA selections, not a single MVP vote)--but this has not been the case at all. Gasol arrived in L.A. in a midseason trade and instantly bonded with Bryant but James, Wade and Bosh play like strangers despite having a complete offseason to figure out their roles; even with Wade missing the preseason it still should not be that difficult for the supposedly two best players in the NBA to figure out how to effectively utilize a player as talented and versatile as Bosh. Gasol is a better passer than Bosh but otherwise their skill set strengths and weaknesses are quite similar: they are both lithe, lanky, agile big men who like to face the basket on offense, who gather rebounds based on their length/mobility more so than their strength/size and who can be pushed around by physical defenders.

Isn't it interesting that the "experts" are already criticizing Bosh more than they are criticizing James and Wade? What is Bosh supposed to do when James and Wade pound the ball so much that it looks like they are trying to drill holes in the hardwood? How is Bosh supposed to get into any kind of rhythm? Bryant and Gasol formed an immediate screen/roll chemistry because they are both high IQ players who understand how to play without the ball and how to read defenses. Gasol also picked up the Triangle Offense very quickly.

Other than the glaringly obvious deficiencies at point guard and center, the biggest question about the Heat is whether or not James and Wade are willing/able to learn how to play in an offensive system that maximizes the strengths and minimizes the weaknesses of all of the Heat's players. Phil Jackson has used the Triangle Offense to good effect in Chicago and L.A.; the point of the Triangle is not to create shots for Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen, Shaquille O'Neal, Kobe Bryant or Pau Gasol but rather to establish a framework in which players who cannot create their own shots can still be effective. Jordan and Bryant both chafed at the Triangle initially but they eventually accepted the idea of playing off of the ball at times so that all of their teammates could be involved offensively.

Before anyone pipes up about the Heat's superficially impressive point differential and offensive efficiency, keep in mind that they have padded those numbers at home against weak opposition. How efficient did Miami look against Boston, Utah or New Orleans? Pat Riley did not bring James and Bosh to Miami merely to rack up blowouts versus weak teams during the regular season. If the Heat do not figure out how to beat good teams and how to win on the road then their playoff run will be much shorter than a lot of people expected.

*****

Just as I correctly objected to the absurd notion that Kobe Bryant's career should be defined by one game, I disagree that LeBron James' legacy will be automatically defined by the "Decision" or even by the results of this NBA season; however, although it is too early to say that James permanently damaged his legacy it is not too early to say that he has taken some steps in that direction with the combination of his quitting versus Boston followed by the tone deaf way that he handled the free agency process. If James leads the Heat to one NBA title he will regain a lot of the status that he lost and if he leads the Heat to multiple championships then his bad spring/summer of 2010 will likely become just a footnote to his career. Keep in mind what I wrote in the above article about Bryant:

Shortly before Jordan led the Bulls to six championships in eight seasons, there were plenty of people who thought that Jordan should never be compared to Magic Johnson and Larry Bird. In The Jordan Rules, Sam Smith tells of a game in which Jordan did not pass to Bill Cartwright nine times when the former All-Star center was wide open. "At least he was under double figures," then Bulls Coach Phil Jackson joked. Cartwright had a less humorous take on Jordan at that time: "He’s the greatest athlete I’ve ever seen. Maybe the greatest athlete ever to play any sport. He can do whatever he wants. It all comes so easy to him. He’s just not a basketball player."

I don't think that the Miami Heat will win the 2011 NBA championship but since they have three of the league's top 15 players they clearly have to be considered a contender. It is possible that they will either improve at point guard and center or else make some personnel moves to shore up those positions. History provides several examples of teams that overcame similar challenges. Despite Cartwright's lament that Jordan was "not a basketball player" (which is akin to my above analysis of how James and Wade struggle to play without the ball), Jordan and the Bulls came together during the 1990-91 season, winning the first of three straight titles. Then Jordan retired for nearly two years before coming back and winning three more titles with an almost entirely different supporting cast (except for fellow Hall of Famer Scottie Pippen, the only other player to play for all six Bulls' championship teams).

During Phil Jackson's first season with the L.A. Lakers, the team faced a lot of adversity, culminating in game seven of the Western Conference Finals when the Portland Trail Blazers led by 15 points before the Lakers rallied for an 89-84 victory. Kobe Bryant led the Lakers in points (25), rebounds (11), assists (seven) and blocked shots (four) in that game. It is interesting to speculate about what might have happened to the Lakers if they had lost to Portland; tensions eventually emerged between O'Neal and Bryant even after they won three titles together, so a loss in the 2000 playoffs may have torn apart the Lakers' delicate chemistry before they had a chance to become a dynasty.

Much like the current Heat, the 2008 Boston Celtics brought in two All-Stars (Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett) to play with an All-Star who had spent his entire career with their team (Paul Pierce). Unlike the Heat, the Celtics were solid at center and point guard (even if we did not realize this until Rajon Rondo and Kendrick Perkins proved their worth) and the Celtics immediately committed to being a defensive-minded team. Still, the Celtics were pushed to the brink--winning seventh games in the first and second rounds of the playoffs--en route to capturing the NBA title; they could have easily lost either of those series and, much like such a loss could have been disastrous for the 2000 Lakers, failing to win the 2008 championship may have negatively affected Boston's team chemistry.

*****

LeBron James' failure during the 2010 playoffs and his poor handling of his free agency process did not make me retroactively change my accurate evaluation of his career; it simply raised two questions:

1) How much help does James need to win an NBA championship?

2) Is winning an NBA championship really James' primary goal?

Labels: Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, Erik Spoelstra, Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Miami Heat

posted by David Friedman @ 3:21 AM

38 comments

Cleveland's One-Two Punch Knocks Out Heat

LeBron James and Dwyane Wade were the headline acts but Mo Williams stole the show with a game-high 29 points as Cleveland beat Miami 99-89 to improve to 28-1 in the friendly confines of Quicken Loans Arena. The Cavs are also an NBA-best 12-1 after a loss, as they managed to quickly put Friday night's debacle in Boston behind them. Williams shot 10-15 from the field, including 6-7 from three point range. The Cavs repeatedly involved James and Williams in screen/roll plays, forcing the Heat to pick their poison between Cleveland's two All-Stars. James struggled with his shot, making just five of his 15 field goal attempts, but he still managed to produce the 21st regular season triple double of his career (14 points, 12 assists, 10 rebounds). James tallied the 3000th assist of his career, becoming the second youngest player to reach that total (24 years, 67 days; Isiah Thomas was 23 years, 322 days old when he joined the 3000 assist club). Wade also shot poorly (9-23 from the field) and he fell just two rebounds short of a triple double (25 points, 12 assists, eight rebounds). Delonte West added 19 points and six assists for the Cavs, while Jermaine O'Neal had his highest scoring game since becoming a member of the Heat three weeks ago (19 points on 7-10 shooting).

The Cavs blitzed the Heat 9-0 in the first 3:39 and never trailed the rest of the way. Four different players scored in that opening outburst, while the Heat looked like they were encased in molasses; both teams were playing the second game of a back to back but Miami looked much more the worse for wear, committing eight first quarter turnovers. The Heat eventually settled down and they only had three more turnovers the rest of the game.

The Cavs pushed their lead as high as 20 points in the second quarter and were up 50-36 at halftime. Both teams sleepwalked through the third quarter, perhaps following the tone set by their leaders during that stanza: James shot 0-4 from the field (though he did have four assists) and Wade shot 1-5 from the field. The Cavs stretched the margin to 19 but the Heat closed to within 70-61 entering the fourth quarter. The old announcing cliche--"As bad as (fill in the blank) has played, they are only down (fill in the blank)"--perfectly described the Heat's situation with 12 minutes to go: they had shot .424 from the field and league scoring leader Wade had only scored 15 points on 5-16 shooting but the visitors still were within striking distance.

Wade's three pointer at the 6:51 mark trimmed the lead to 80-74 and Cleveland was only up 84-76 at the 5:06 mark when Wade and Anderson Varejao contested a jump ball on Miami's side of the court. I was seated next to ProBasketballNews.com editor Sam Amico and turned to him and said, "Watch Wade jump into Varejao's body, steal this tip and possibly give Miami a chance to shoot an open three pointer." Sure enough, Wade jumped into Varejao to nullify the Brazilian's height advantage and then Wade tipped the ball to Mario Chalmers, who missed a three pointer. James got the rebound and on the next possession he passed to Williams for a jumper to extend Cleveland's lead to 86-76. That was a big five point swing but the Heat recovered from that setback to make one final run, coming to within 91-85 after a Michael Beasley jumper at the 2:18 mark. Neither team scored for more than a minute and then Wade made one of his patented full speed drives to the hoop. He collided with Varejao but no foul was called and Varejao grabbed the rebound. An incensed Wade received his second technical foul; the automatic ejection that follows a second technical was the first time that he has been kicked out of an NBA game. Miami Coach Erik Spoelstra also got a technical foul. It certainly looked like Varejao fouled Wade, so I can understand Miami's frustration, even though the technical fouls and ejection essentially killed their chances of winning the game; Williams made both technical free throws and the Cavs led by at least six points the rest of the way.

After the game, Coach Spoelstra said, "We did not come with the right energy, toughness and disposition to start the game. That's the bottom line...We did show some fight and some resolve later on in the game not to let it go. That was encouraging but it became a frustration night. We were all frustrated, including myself. We saw some calls that looked differently (than they were called), but, regardless, the bottom line, I'm not sure if we deserved to win that game."

Cleveland Coach Mike Brown acknowledged James' triple double but said that Williams' shooting was the key: "Mo Williams was terrific for us down the stretch, hitting some big shots time and time again when we needed baskets...We ran side pick and roll with LeBron and Mo and he (Mo) made big play after big play. It was great to see a guy like Mo being able to take over the game offensively to give a guy like LeBron a rest."

The Cavs just finished playing five games in seven days, with James logging at least 43 minutes in three of those games. He and the Cavs generally stay true to their motto of being a "no excuse team" but when someone asked James if tired legs may have had something to do with his back to back 5-15 shooting nights, James replied, "It was a big factor. Personally, I felt good when I came in and worked out before the game but as the game went on, I could tell from my jumper that my legs did not feel particularly well. I tried to do the other things like defend and try to get guys open for shots. Even when I'm not feeling particularly well on the offensive end, I still can find ways to contribute to our team and help us win."

When someone suggested to Williams that it might be said that James had an off game due to his low shooting percentage, Williams replied, "Stats aren't all about shot attempts and what you shot from the field. It's the effect you have on the game...He can be one for whatever and he is still going to draw double teams and triple teams."

Williams said that it did not bother him that most of the pregame attention focused on James and Wade despite the fact that Williams is also an All-Star: "I've never been a person who wanted the spotlight. I'm happy where I am right now. I'm in the perfect position, being with LeBron. He gets all the spotlight and I'm the guy behind closed doors who just sneaks up on you and you don't know where I'm at but all of a sudden I'm there." Like the Lakers' Pau Gasol, Williams has the perfect attitude and temperament to play alongside an MVP caliber player: Gasol and Williams are legit All-Stars can take over on their own at times but they understand and appreciate how much easier the game is for them on a nightly basis because of all of the extra attention drawn by Kobe Bryant and LeBron James respectively. Some players in Gasol's or Williams' shoes would let their egos get in the way and feel the need to prove that they are "the man" but perhaps years of being "the man" on teams that did not go anywhere helped them to understand that only a few guys in the NBA are truly franchise players and it is a blessing to have one of them as a teammate.

*****************************
Notes From Courtside:

During his pregame standup, someone asked Coach Spoelstra about the impact that the newly acquired Jermaine O'Neal and Jamario Moon have had on the team and how quickly they have meshed with Wade. Spoelstra said, "Jermaine has really helped. I think this goes understated all the time, the fact that he gives us a presence down there (in the low post) to balance out our attack has meaning. It really does, because he can catch and finish, we can also throw him the ball and run some offense through him that allows other guys to get easy baskets on cuts. We can vary our attack so that (Wade) can rest a little bit and we can play off someone else. The connection with Jamario is a little bit of a surprise. We knew that there were a lot of elements of his game that we liked but the type of connection that he and Dwyane have already with back cuts and lobs and things of that nature--that usually takes a little bit longer to develop."

Coach Spoelstra has done very well in his first season as an NBA head coach. I asked him, "What has surprised you the most about the difference between being a head coach and an assistant coach? What part of that adjustment has surprised you?"

Coach Spoelstra answered, "You think you know what it is when you are just in the other seat but until you are actually making the decisions and sitting in that chair 12 inches away (you don't really know). Your meals, after losses, are a little bit tougher to eat. Your sleep patterns have changed a little bit. I always used to joke about those things with (former Miami Coach) Stan (Van Gundy) and (former Miami Coach) Pat (Riley), because I never had a problem sleeping or eating but now as a head coach it definitely affects you a little bit more."

I then asked Coach Spoelstra, "Is your relationship with the players different now?"

He replied, "That's natural. As an assistant coach, your role a lot of times is to bridge communication between the players and the head coach or to help communicate a message but also to connect on a friendly level. I've created a lot of friendships with players over the years as an assistant coach. You still try to do the same thing as a head coach but that is not always realistic because you don't have as much time and you don't have as much interaction on a day to day level as you do as an assistant coach, when you are working the players out on the court after practice, before practice and in meetings. So, the way you communicate is a little bit different but I still try to reach out to the guys as much as I can."

***

It is sadly ironic that Ben Wallace was on the cover of Cleveland's gameday program, because he has been sidelined for six games with a broken leg. The Cavs are 5-1 since Wallace got hurt, with their only loss coming on Friday at the hands of the defending champion Boston Celtics.

Wallace averages 3.0 ppg and 6.6 rpg in 24.0 minutes per game, so it is easy to belittle his impact, but the Cavs clearly miss the four-time Defensive Player of the Year. After the Miami game, the Cavs rank eighth in the NBA in points in the paint allowed (36.8 ppg) but their performance in this category has markedly declined since Wallace has been sidelined; they have been outscored in the paint 258-176 in those games, which works out to an average of 43.0-29.3. Even taking out Boston's 58 points in the paint explosion on Friday, the Cavs are still giving up several more points per game in the paint than they were when Wallace was playing. They have been outscored in the paint in five of those six games; the Heat only rank 19th in the NBA in points in the paint but even in a losing cause they bested the Cavs 42-34 in that department.

The Cavs rank fourth in the NBA in rebounding differential (+ 3.0 rpg) but this is another area where they have not done nearly as well without Wallace in the lineup; the Cavs and their opponents have each grabbed 240 rebounds in the past six games. The Cavs have been outrebounded three times, outrebounded their opponents twice and tied their opponents once.

During Coach Brown's pregame standup, I asked him, "How has Ben Wallace's absence affected you in terms of giving up so many points in the paint?"

He answered, "He is a terrific defender--and player--for us. I don't know what our points in the paint were with him and without him (because) I am not a huge stat guy but his presence is something that we miss--but just like when Z (Zydrunas Ilgauskas) was out with his length, we have to have other guys step up and we feel confident that other guys can step up and help hold that down. Whether he's here or not, we've got to get that done."

***

Wallace is a good example of a player whose impact on his team's success is not accurately depicted by his individual statistics. Near the end of Coach Brown's standup, the media throng around him thinned dramatically because James had just emerged for the trainer's room for his pregame availability. This provided me the opportunity to ask Coach Brown several questions in a row relating to his perspective on basketball statistics, including how he utilizes statistics in game plan preparation, what numbers he most closely tracks to evaluate his team and his thoughts on Michael Lewis' recent New York Times article about basketball statistics (I offered my take about the Lewis article here). I will present Coach Brown's interesting comments about these subjects in a separate article that will be published soon.

***

After my interview with Coach Brown, I still managed to catch a good portion of James' pregame availability. When I walked over, he was in the middle of answering a question about the MVP race. James said that Kobe Bryant had been the best player in the NBA in other seasons prior to winning the award for the first time last season and that he, Bryant, Wade, Paul Pierce and the other elite players are constantly trying to be the best players that they can be but this does not necessarily lead to winning the MVP trophy.

James also offered a humorous--if not quite mathematically sound--take on the race for the scoring title, saying with a smile, "The statistics that go with scoring are kind of crazy. You can score 50 points and go up two tenths of a point and then you can score 22 points and drop a whole point. Numbers are crazy how they work sometimes but if D. Wade continues to score 40 points I'm not going to keep up with that." Of course, the only way for what James said to be literally true is if the 50 point game happened later in the season and was part of a larger sample of games, while the 22 point game happened earlier in the season when each game has a greater impact on the scoring average. The important thing for Cavs fans is that James is clearly not going to chase the scoring title at the expense of doing what is best for the team--but since part of what is best for the team involves James scoring a lot of points at times, he actually could still end up winning the scoring title anyway.

***

According to the media seating chart, Jay Mariotti was supposed to be seated next to me during the game but I did not see him until after the game, when he showed up for Coach Brown's postgame standup. I joked that he must have found a better seat than the one assigned to him but Mariotti explained that he had spent most of the game working on a column after the news broke that Terrell Owens had signed a one year contract with the Buffalo Bills. It took Coach Brown a bit longer than usual to show up, so I chatted with Mariotti about the twists and turns of his career. I told him that I remembered reading some of his earliest Chicago Sun-Times' columns when he was covering the great Bulls-Knicks playoff series. Mariotti said--half joking and half seriously--"You're bringing a tear to my eye," noting how the newspaper business has basically completely died in the intervening decade and a half. He mentioned that several of the newspapers he worked for during his career--including the great, short lived The National, Frank DeFord's attempt to create a national daily sports newspaper--have gone out of business and I pointed out that Dick Schaap made a similar lament about his career in his autobiography Flashing Before My Eyes. "At least I'm in good company," Mariotti replied. He added that if DeFord started The National today, it would all be online, which would eliminate the distribution problems that drove the paper out of business. I said that maybe DeFord was ahead of his time with the idea for The National and Mariotti agreed, suggesting that ESPN.com essentially represents an online version of what DeFord was trying to create. I held my tongue a bit with that comment, because I don't think that the ESPN.com roster holds a candle to the team that DeFord assembled back in the day.

As for that long ago column about the old Bulls-Knicks series, Mariotti said that then-Chicago Coach Phil Jackson first fanned the flames of conspiracy theories by suggesting none too subtly that the NBA sent certain referees to certain games to get the desired result. It is not clear if Jackson really believed that or was just employing one of his countless mind games. Either way, Mariotti and I agreed that it definitely seemed like Hue Hollins had something against the Bulls in general and Scottie Pippen in particular. Every serious basketball fan knows about Hollins' infamous blown call against Pippen that cost the Bulls a road win in game five of their 1994 series with New York--a series in which the home team eventually won all seven games--but I reminded Mariotti that Hollins was involved in several other questionable calls that went against Pippen and the Bulls, including one that possibly cost them a chance to have 73 wins in 1995-96 (and thus be the only NBA team ever to go through a season with single-digit losses).

Labels: Cleveland Cavaliers, Dwyane Wade, Erik Spoelstra, Jermaine O'Neal, LeBron James, Miami Heat, Mike Brown, Mo Williams

posted by David Friedman @ 9:44 AM

2 comments