20 Second Timeout

Tim Duncan's Legacy is Defined by Consistency, Durability and Grace Under Pressure

Tim Duncan entered the NBA with as little fanfare as is possible for a number one overall draft pick and after a brilliant 19 year NBA career he has departed the NBA with even less fanfare. There will be no farewell tour--just a press release and Duncan will ride off into the sunset.

A few phrases jump to mind when trying to summarize what makes Duncan so special.

Quiet dominance. Even-keeled personality. Grace under pressure. Durability. Unselfishness.

Duncan rarely posted gaudy statistics and he did not set many records but his resume is nonetheless quite full: five NBA championships (1999, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2014), two regular season MVPs (2002, 2003), three Finals MVPs (1999, 2003, 2005), 1998 Rookie of the Year, 2000 All-Star Game MVP, 10 All-NBA First Team selections, eight All-Defensive First Team selections. He ranked in the top eight in regular season MVP voting in each of his first 11 seasons, including five times when he finished in the top three. Duncan only averaged more than 25 ppg once but he ranks 14th on the NBA's career scoring list (and 17th on the ABA-NBA list) with 26,496 points. Duncan's 15,091 career rebounds rank sixth in NBA history and seventh on the ABA-NBA leaderboard and his 3020 blocked shots rank fifth on the NBA list (and sixth when ABA numbers are included; blocked shots became an official statistic in 1972-73 in the ABA and in 1973-74 in the NBA). Duncan averaged at least 20 ppg and at least 10 rpg in each of his first eight seasons and he averaged a double double in each of his first 13 seasons.

As Hubie Brown would say, the numbers are there but then you also have to look at the impact. Duncan's arrival in San Antonio heralded the elevation of the Spurs to championship contender status and they remained championship contenders throughout his career. His minutes were limited in recent seasons, which led to a corresponding decline in his other statistics, but Duncan always had a major effect on the game both as the anchor of the defense and as a key offensive player who could do all of the fundamental things well: shoot, pass, handle the ball and--perhaps most underrated--set good, solid screens to free up his teammates.

As a San Antonio assistant coach, Hank Egan saw Tim Duncan's development first hand. An exchange during my first interview with Coach Egan illuminates many of the subtleties of Duncan's game that a casual fan might ignore. While Duncan rightly earned the nickname "Big Fundamental" from Shaquille O'Neal, Egan recalls that even a player as sound as Duncan still had to make some adjustments after entering the NBA:

Egan: "He had a couple years of a learning curve and then, bam. He's a great player. I think that he is the best player in the NBA right now and he has been for several years. He had the luxury while he was breaking in of having David Robinson right there, cleaning up a lot."

Friedman: "The personality that Robinson has, to accept the transition (to a lesser role)."

Egan: "Grace."

Friedman: "It's hard to think of another player of his status who could do something like that. I think a little bit of Julius Erving with Moses Malone coming in and them winning a championship together with Julius stepping back somewhat. But David Robinson did it year after year."

Egan: "After Tim's first year, someone asked him if it bothered him that we were going more to Tim on offense and he said, 'Tim is better offensively than I am.' That's exactly what he said. He didn't say that he was getting older or anything like that. He just said that Tim was better."

Friedman: "They had different offensive games. Robinson's game, particularly after some of the injuries, was a face-up game."

Egan: "Yeah. He was always better faced up because he was a narrow-based player. He was straight up and down. He couldn't go to the post where other players would hunker down and use their width. So he played straight up and down."

Friedman: "Duncan has a different kind of body to get in the post."

Egan: "Absolutely. Absolutely."

Friedman: "That's another thing that I guess is a natural gift in a sense. Robinson is certainly strong and muscular in his arms but he has that tiny waist."

Egan: "Tiny waist, a little knock kneed. Tim Duncan is built like Olajuwon."

Friedman: "Yeah. Your game gets constructed around your body type in a certain sense."

Egan: "Absolutely. Yeah. People would say, 'You have to get this guy to play down low.' He can't play low; he's a straight up and down guy. You have to figure out how to use what God gave him."

Friedman: "That's a big part of coaching, right? You have to see what you are working with. You can't just say, 'My system is best and in my system the 5 does this.' If you have a 5 who can't do that, then you have to find other ways to use his skills."

Egan: "Absolutely. Absolutely."

Friedman: "Robinson was amazing, particularly before he got hurt—his quickness, the way he could run the floor and steal the ball from guards. He was a very unusual player with what he could do."

Egan: "Yes."

The "grace" that Egan correctly attributes to Robinson has been displayed by Duncan as well during the latter portion of Duncan's career. Very few elite players have so seamlessly adjusted to each phase of their careers; Duncan blended well with elder statesman Robinson, Duncan dominated during his prime years (winning back to back regular season MVPs while leading the Spurs to four titles in nine years), Duncan ceded shot attempts and limelight to Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili as those players emerged and then Duncan made room for Kawhi Leonard's ascension as well. Last season, Duncan played the reduced elder statesman David Robinson role as LaMarcus Aldridge became the team's primary low post offensive weapon.

The only plausible reason for not labeling Duncan the greatest power forward of all-time is that it could be argued that he was a de facto center during a significant portion of his career. Was Duncan the greatest player of his era? There are only a few legitimate candidates for that title: Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan, LeBron James and Shaquille O'Neal. O'Neal was the most physically dominant of that quartet but his inattention to conditioning affected his durability and left him trailing both Bryant and Duncan in terms of championships. James would be the choice of the "stat gurus" because he fills up every category in the box score. Bryant was the one man wrecking crew, the scoring machine/defensive fiend who could carry a team with Smush and Kwame to the playoffs and who was an integral part of two back to back championship dynasties nearly a decade apart (something that none of the other three players accomplished).

There is no definitive right or wrong answer. My personal feeling is I would be reluctant to take O'Neal unless I have a Phil Jackson or Pat Riley to keep him motivated. James is a wunderkind but I will always be baffled by his disappearing act in several key playoff series, most notably the 2011 NBA Finals and the 2010 Eastern Conference semifinals; I don't trust him the way that I trust Bryant and Duncan. The problem with comparing Bryant and Duncan is that they need two completely different kinds of supporting casts around them to win, because one is a perimeter player and the other is a post player. The general rule in basketball is that size matters, which would favor Duncan. Bryant asserted his dominance in a more obvious fashion, by scoring 40 or 50 points in a game or by averaging 30 ppg in a series; Duncan's dominance was more understated--sliding over to deter an opponent from driving, setting a screen that freed up someone else to score. Picking one will inevitably be viewed as disrespecting the other, so in the year that both Bryant and Duncan retired from the NBA let's just say that Bryant was the best perimeter player of the post-Jordan era and Duncan was the best big man of the post-Jordan era.

Labels: David Robinson, Gregg Popovich, Hank Egan, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, San Antonio Spurs, Shaquille O'Neal, Tim Duncan

posted by David Friedman @ 3:08 PM

8 comments

Which Statistics Best Predict Championship Success?

Which statistics best correlate with championship success? I wrote about this subject for NBCSports.com in 2006 and then updated that article in 2009. My newest article for The Roar compares the 2015 Golden State Warriors to NBA champions since 1990: Which Statistics Best Predict Championship Success?

Also, here is a list of how the past seven NBA champions ranked in point differential and defensive field goal percentage:

2008 Boston Celtics: 10.2 ppg point differential (1), .419 defensive field goal percentage (1)
2009 L.A. Lakers: 7.6 ppg point differential (2), .447 defensive field goal percentage (6)
2010 L.A. Lakers: 4.7 ppg point differential (6), .446 defensive field goal percentage (5)
2011 Dallas Mavericks: 4.2 ppg point differential (8), .450 defensive field goal percentage (8)
2012 Miami Heat: 6.0 ppg point differential (4), .434 defensive field goal percentage (5)
2013 Miami Heat: 7.9 ppg point differential (2), .440 defensive field goal percentage (6)
2014 San Antonio Spurs: 7.8 ppg point differential (1), .444 defensive field goal percentage (8)

Labels: Golden State Warriors, Hank Egan, Hubie Brown, San Antonio Spurs

posted by David Friedman @ 4:39 PM

10 comments

Defensive-Minded Celtics Spoil Cavaliers' Home Opener

The Boston Celtics held the Cleveland Cavaliers to 29-70 field goal shooting (.414), overcame an early 14 point deficit to build a 15 point second half lead and then staved off a late Cleveland rally to topple the Cavaliers 95-89 in the season opener for both teams. Kevin Garnett scored 13 points and had 10 rebounds in his first game since March 25, while new Celtics Rasheed Wallace (12 points, 3-6 three point field goal shooting) and Marquis Daniels (seven points, game-high +11 plus/minus rating) helped the Celtics to enjoy a 26-10 advantage in bench points, but the big star for Boston on this night was Paul Pierce, who led the way with 23 points and a game-high 11 rebounds. Pierce scored 10 fourth quarter points, including six points in the final 1:03. LeBron James had a typically explosive game--38 points, eight assists, four rebounds, four blocked shots, two steals--but he was about the only bright spot for the Cavs; Shaquille O'Neal had six points (3-3 field goal shooting) and four rebounds in the first 7:20 of the first quarter but managed just four points and six rebounds in 21:28 the rest of the way, including 0 points on 0-2 field goal shooting in the fourth quarter. Mo Williams scored 12 points on 3-8 field goal shooting and had a game-worst -10 plus/minus rating. Anthony Parker was Cleveland's only other double figure scorer (10 points) but he shot just 3-9 from the field and had a costly turnover late in the game when James passed to him for what should have been a wide open corner jumper. Zydrunas Ilgauskas (six points, five rebounds in 24:39) struggled to find his way in his new role off of the bench as O'Neal's backup.

Cleveland lost only two home games last season en route to posting a league-best 66-16 overall record. The home team had won the previous 16 encounters in this series and after the first quarter it looked like that trend would continue. The Cavaliers raced to a 21-7 lead as O'Neal looked mobile and sharp while James scored from inside and outside in addition to racking up three blocked shots, including a sensational left handed rejection of a Rajon Rondo fast break dunk attempt at the 3:12 mark. The Celtics began to chip away as both teams put their reserves into the game and by the end of the quarter Boston trimmed Cleveland's advantage to 28-21. Ray Allen scored 11 of his 16 points in the second quarter, often abusing the smaller Daniel Gibson in the post; the Cavs sorely missed the presence of Delonte West, last season's starting shooting guard who also sometimes anchored the reserve unit during key stretches of games. During the 2009 playoffs, West led the Cavaliers with 41.3 mpg, ranked second on the team with 19 steals and tied for second with 58 assists. Although he warmed up on the court prior to the game, West was placed on the inactive list and it is not clear when he will return to active duty as he battles against bipolar disorder. Boston Coach Doc Rivers coached West in Boston for three seasons and when Rivers was asked about West's situation Rivers said that he is praying for West to completely recover and he added that his philosophy is "Don't give up on anybody who's breathing."

Prior to the game, Cleveland Coach Mike Brown expressed concern about his team's transition defense and weak side defense and he reiterated those themes after the game, while also acknowledging that Boston played very well: "You have to give Boston a lot of credit. They did a heck of a job in the first half of withstanding the punch that we threw. They bounced back the right way. They are a very good strong side defensive team. For a stretch in the first half, we didn't get the ball across the floor. We kept the ball on one side of the floor and took a lot of jump shots. That hurt us. On the defensive end of the floor we had a lot of uncontested shots. One of our staples on the defensive end is to contest and there was a stretch in the first half when we didn't contest shots, especially transition three pointers...On average last year we had a little over 13 uncontested shots per game but we had nine uncontested shots just in the first half of tonight's game."

Brown blamed himself for a substitution pattern that led to the Cavaliers being "a little disjointed," which is an excellent description of his team's performance after the first few minutes; Brown is still trying to figure out which player combinations will be most effective, a process that has been hindered not only by West's situation but also because Brown is integrating newcomers O'Neal, Parker and Jamario Moon into the mix. Brown paired O'Neal and Ilgauskas together for a little more than six minutes in the fourth quarter; Boston led 80-71 at the 9:20 mark and 85-79 with 3:15 remaining when Anderson Varejao replaced Ilgauskas. In response to a question after the game, Brown said that the Twin Towers look was something that he had planned to do in advance but that he had not expected to stick with it for quite that long. I followed up by asking, "You said that you were looking for something specific when you played Shaq and Z together. What exactly were you looking for and did you see what you wanted to see?" Brown responded, "I just wanted to see if those guys could play together and how they would look playing together. I thought that they did a nice job when they were on the floor together."

In this game, we saw a microcosm of the best of the Cavs and the worst of the Cavs: at their best, the Cavs are a very good defensive team that can attack offensively in a variety of ways, from O'Neal in the post to James virtually anywhere, with spot up shooters and slashers available as pressure releases if opposing teams trap O'Neal and/or James--but at their worst, the Cavs have some defensive weaknesses that can be exploited (they are slow in transition and in defending the screen/roll, problems that stem in part from having two elder statesmen seven footers in O'Neal and Ilgauskas) and when they are pressured or have certain lineup combinations in the game they have a tendency to break down offensively and either go one on one or else settle for long jumpers. The talent and potential of this team are quite evident, so the Cavs should show steady improvement during the season--but, assuming that the team stays reasonably healthy, the obvious X factor is West's status. Parker is a good offseason acquisition and Moon figures to have more impact during the rest of the season than he did in this game (two points in 13:41) but neither of those players can fully replace West's contributions or replicate his familiarity with Brown's system.

As for the Celtics, don't forget that they opened their 2009 title defense with a 27-2 record before injuries--particularly to defensive linchpin Garnett--scuttled their season. Even without Garnett they still pushed eventual Eastern Conference Champion Orlando to seven games in the Eastern Conference semifinals. The Celtics will miss Glen Davis, who recently broke his thumb in an altercation with a former college teammate, but Wallace should be more than able to pick up the slack, while Daniels will provide valuable bench production at point guard, shooting guard and small forward. When they are fully healthy the Celtics are a suffocating defensive team. Center Kendrick Perkins is a powerful force in the paint, Garnett wreaks havoc all over the court, point guard Rajon Rondo (eight points, 10 assists, six rebounds versus Cleveland) is quick and plays bigger than his size and future Hall of Famers Paul Pierce and Ray Allen have accepted the challenge defensively ever since Garnett joined the team in 2007.

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Notes From Courtside:

In 2008-09, LeBron James won his first regular season MVP partially because he improved several of his skill set weaknesses: he reversed a three year decline in his three point shooting percentage and fell just short of setting a career-high in that category (.344, just .007 worse than his 2004-05 percentage), he shot a career-high .780 from the free throw line, he earned his first selection to the All-Defensive First Team and he finished second in Defensive Player of the Year voting. Great NBA players are known for their relentless pursuit of perfection; they never rest on their laurels--that is why Kobe Bryant spent part of his summer learning low post moves from Hakeem Olajuwon. During his pregame standup, I asked James, "Last year you improved your free throw shooting and your defense. What is one area you are looking to improve or focus on this season?" James replied, "I don't know. I just try to improve every part of my game every year. I did a lot of shooting this summer, from everywhere on the court but mostly from boxes and elbows, so hopefully I can open my offensive game a little bit more. Defensively, I am going to have the same intensity as I had last year. I will be the same leader that I have been the last few years--that won't change." Later in his pregame standup, James reiterated his goal to shoot at least .800 from the free throw line, a standard that Assistant Coach Chris Jent mentioned to me in May 2008.

Before James did his pregame standup, I saw part of his shooting workout with Jent (you can find my account of James' pregame shooting routine from last season's home opener here). James shot from various areas of the court until he made five shots (not in a row). I don't know how long he had been practicing before I arrived but here are his shooting percentages for the part of the workout that I saw (in the order that James shot from the various areas):

5-5 free throws
5-8 one dribble pullup jumpers from the left baseline just inside the three point line
5-6 left wing three pointers (catch and shoot)
5-10 one dribble pullup jumpers from the top of the key area (beyond the top of the key but inside the three point line)
5-10 one dribble pullup jumpers from the right wing just inside the three point line
5-10 one dribble pullup jumpers from the right baseline just inside the three point line
5-7 free throws

James' form on his free throws and jump shots has improved significantly since he entered the league: his release is smoother and more consistent and he no longer fades away or drifts to the side on his jumpers as much as he used to do. When James gets in a good rhythm he looks like a great pure shooter but he does not sustain that rhythm the way that guys like Reggie Miller, Kobe Bryant and Steve Nash do during warmup situations; James will swish three shots in a row beautifully and then clank one off of the rim discordantly or even hit the side of the backboard. His shot is a work in progress but the significant thing is that he is working on it and he did demonstrate improvement last season.

***

Mike Brown has the best winning percentage (.643) of any coach in the 39 year history of the Cavaliers franchise. He is also the third winningest coach among the nine NBA coaches who have been with their current team for at least the past four years, trailing only Gregg Popovich (.675) and Phil Jackson (.672) and ranking ahead of such notables as Jerry Sloan and Doc Rivers. Brown went 188-112 (.627) in his first 300 games as Cleveland's coach, the fifth best winning percentage among active coaches in their first 300 games, trailing only Phil Jackson, Rick Adelman, Stan Van Gundy and Rick Carlisle.

***

Prior to the game, I spoke with Cavaliers Assistant Coach Hank Egan. Much was said and written before, during and after last year's Eastern Conference Finals regarding how Cleveland matched up with Orlando, so I asked Coach Egan to explain the thought process behind some of Cleveland's strategic moves during that series:

Friedman: "Sometimes when a team has a really great defensive player--like Kobe Bryant has been for years and like LeBron James turned into last year--the philosophy is to put him on the other team's best player and shut him down, while other times the philosophy is to put him on a weaker player and use him as a roamer. How come in the Orlando series instead of putting James on (Rashard) Lewis or (Hedo) Turkoglu you put him on (Rafer) Alston? Explain, from a coaching perspective, where that idea came from."

Egan: "There are a lot of reasons for it. One of the reasons was we put him on Alston so he could roam a little bit, so that gave us some opportunities there; also, we didn't feel that would get us in a lot of foul trouble to begin with because they would not post up Alston or put him in any situations like that. Then, late in the game, we started picking out (certain matchups) and putting James on different people, which is what we did a lot during the year: keep him out of foul trouble early in the game and then in the second part of the game in crunch time we find the key guy and we would put him on the key guy."

Friedman: "A lot of the media coverage of the series focused on the idea that Orlando enjoyed favorable mismatches or favorable matchups versus Cleveland sizewise, so a lot of people wondered why James did not start out on Lewis or Turkoglu, because he would not be at a size disadvantage. What is your perspective on that as a coach?"

Egan: "It's not necessarily the matchup one on one because we were going to have to double team Dwight Howard, so we were going to be in (defensive) rotations anyway. So LeBron would be in rotation and that would give us an opportunity to use him to double team the post or else to rotate to shooters on the perimeter."

Friedman: "So you felt like the angles that James would be coming from (when he was assigned to guard Alston) would--"

Egan: "Not necessarily the angle, but he (James) would be in a position on the postup (of Howard)--the way that they used Alston--to maybe help more from that spot than he would be from one of the other guys. It's hard to leave Turkoglu, it's hard to leave the premier shooters."

Friedman: "Was there any thought, with the frontcourt depth that you had last season, of maybe taking some more fouls on Howard? Is that something you look back on and wonder if you should have done differently, maybe take a chance on his free throw percentage versus the three point shooting percentage of some of their other players?"

Egan: "Yeah, we talked about that. Taking fouls is really not in a person's character. It's really hard (because players want to play defense and not just bail out/give up on the play). But he hit his free throws against us (Howard shot .701 from the free throw line versus Cleveland in the 2009 Eastern Conference Finals, compared to .636 overall in the playoffs and .594 in the regular season)."

Friedman: "It seemed like there were a couple plays when Howard caught the ball down low versus Varejao and Varejao didn't foul him and he dunked even though it seemed like the coaching staff was giving the (forearms crossed) signal to foul. Were there some particular individual situations--not to just single out Varejao--in which the coaching staff was giving the signal to foul but the foul did not get taken for whatever reason?"

Egan: "I'm sure that there were. I don't remember that specific one involving Varejao--"

Friedman: "That happened in the overtime of game four."

Egan: "I can't remember that one but there were situations in which we wanted to foul and didn't get it."

Friedman: "With the personnel changes that you have made and assuming that Delonte will be able to play during the playoffs--and hopefully sooner--do you think that if you faced a similar situation again that you would match up differently and maybe not have LeBron be a roamer?"

Egan: "If we had had bigger people to rotate (last year versus Orlando)--we had a very small lineup with Mo, at times, Gib(son), Delonte on the perimeter because Wally (Szczerbiak) was not up to full speed and Sasha (Pavlovic) wasn't playing well so we were rotating with very small players and I don't think we were affecting the three point shooters. The biggest change we feel about the ballclub now is we have AP (Anthony Parker), we've got Jamario Moon, those kind of guys rotating to the shooters so it is going to be a little different now. We hope that will make a big difference."

Labels: Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Delonte West, Doc Rivers, Hank Egan, Kevin Garnett, LeBron James, Mike Brown, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Shaquille O'Neal

posted by David Friedman @ 10:28 AM

9 comments

Cavs Use Ball Movement, Balance to Topple Celtics

LeBron James and Delonte West had 21 points each to lead a balanced scoring attack as the Cleveland Cavaliers routed the Boston Celtics 108-84 to cut Boston's lead to 2-1 in their second round playoff series. Joe Smith added 17 points on 7-8 field goal shooting, Wally Szczerbiak scored 16 points and Zydrunas Ilgauskas had 12 points, eight rebounds and a playoff career-high six assists. Ben Wallace, whose playing status was uncertain until right before game time due to allergies and an inner ear infection, contributed nine points, nine rebounds and a lot of high energy hustle plays that do not show up in the boxscore. West and Smith each tied their playoff career-highs in scoring. Kevin Garnett led the Celtics with 17 points and nine rebounds but his All-Star sidekicks Paul Pierce (14 points, five assists, 3-8 field goal shooting) and Ray Allen (10 points, four assists, 4-12 field goal shooting) had very quiet games. Pierce and Allen should be happy that James' poor shooting is grabbing all the headlines because they are shooting .343 and .308 from the field respectively in this series.

James shot 5-16 (.313) from the field in game three but even though that is an improvement over his 8-42 shooting (.190) in the first two games he now holds the dubious distinction of posting the worst field goal percentage by any player in three consecutive postseason games since the NBA-ABA merger in 1976. The flip side of that, as James noted in his postgame remarks, is that he can contribute in many ways besides scoring: James had eight assists, five rebounds, four steals and three blocked shots in game three and he is averaging 7.7 apg, 6.3 rpg, 2.3 spg and 1.7 bpg versus Boston. James also had just two turnovers after coughing up the ball 17 times in the first two games. After the game, he candidly admitted that he made some "lazy" passes in those games because he did not give enough respect to the Celtics' defense. The fact that Cleveland can blow out a 66 win Boston team even when James shoots poorly and scores nine points less than his league-leading regular season average puts the lie to Stephen A. Smith's claim that James is surrounded by "trash." The Cavs have 10 legitimate rotation players, which means that some guys who can play don't get much run unless someone gets hurt or is in foul trouble; in addition to starters James, Wallace, Ilgauskas, West and Szczerbiak, the Cavs have quality reserves in Smith, Anderson Varejao, Daniel Gibson, Devin Brown and Sasha Pavlovic. Gibson was a playoff hero last year, Varejao's defense, rebounding and energy are valuable, Brown can score, Smith can score and rebound and Pavlovic started for last year's team that made it to the NBA Finals. Any NBA coach is happy if he has an eight player rotation that he trusts and none of those 10 players even come close to deserving the "trash" designation. The two negatives about Cleveland's rotation are that the Cavs do not have a second star player--former All-Star Ilgauskas comes closest to fitting that bill--and that the Cavs are still getting used to playing together in the wake of a season filled with holdouts, injuries and the big trade; that lack of continuity probably goes a long way toward explaining why this team can look terrible one night and great the next night.

Although Boston scored the first four points of the game, Cleveland quickly took over by playing with aggressiveness at both ends of the court; the Cavs were very active defensively and on offense they did a great job of passing the ball crisply, probing for weaknesses and then making open shots. After the game, Cleveland Coach Mike Brown said of Boston, "They're a very good strong side defensive team. We've emphasized from day one that you've got to get that ball from one side of the floor to the other. You've got to move that defense and when you're moving it you've got to move it with a purpose. I thought our guys were poised and patient and did that tonight."

Cleveland used 14-0 and 9-0 first quarter runs to build a 32-13 lead after 12 minutes. James had just five first quarter points, scoring on a fast break dunk and a three pointer, just his second made field goal outside of the paint in the first nine quarters of the series. All five Cleveland starters scored in the first quarter; Szczerbiak led the way with seven points, while Wallace took advantage of the fact that the Celtics largely ignore him, scoring six points on 3-3 shooting just by being active near the front of the rim. The Celtics shot just 6-19 (.316) from the field and committed five turnovers, while the Cavs shot 13-20 (.650) and had no turnovers.

The Cavs achieved their biggest lead of the game, 26 points, after a wild sequence early in the second quarter. James drove to the hoop only to be clotheslined by James Posey, a player who has a history of committing flagrant fouls. While James lay on the ground trying to collect himself, Varejao got right in Posey's face. Posey and Varejao were each given technical fouls and Posey was also called for a flagrant one foul, which does not entail automatic ejection; the severity and nature of the contact (a blow to the head and neck) certainly seemed to warrant a flagrant two foul and it will be interesting to see if the NBA upgrades that foul and further penalizes Posey; ESPN announcers Mark Jackson and Jeff Van Gundy thought that the flagrant one call was sufficient because, in their opinion, Posey was trying to simply wrap James up but when James went low Posey's arm connected with his neck. My understanding is that the officials are supposed to make their flagrant foul rulings based on windup, impact and follow through regardless of what they think a player's intentions were and based on those factors I think that a flagrant two is warranted in this case, though on seeing some replays I do understand Jackson and Van Gundy's point--but I still disagree with them. James made both free throws and Szczerbiak scored on a short jumper to put Cleveland up 43-17 but the Cavs did not score for the next 3:22 and by halftime the Celtics had cut the lead to 52-35, a significant but by no means insurmountable margin. Szczerbiak was the only player from either team who scored in double figures in the first half (14 points on 4-5 field goal shooting). James had seven points on 2-6 field goal shooting.

James electrified the crowd early in the third quarter with one of the best blocked shots you will ever see; Rajon Rondo seemed to have a clear path for a fast break layup but James caught him from behind and pinned Rondo's shot to the backboard Rucker Park-style, wiping the glass with the ball. That led to a West three pointer that made the score 60-41, Cleveland. The Celtics never got closer than 12 points the rest of the way and the Cavs closed the game with an 11-4 run to open up their biggest lead since the second quarter.

I've seen James up close before and after a lot of playoff games and he does a pretty good job of living by Rudyard Kipling's maxim to meet "Triumph and Disaster/And treat those two imposters just the same." Win or lose, James always has an air of quiet confidence; he does not get too elated in victory nor does he get discouraged by defeat--and if you can avoid being discouraged (at least externally) after shooting 8-42 in two losses then you are pretty strong mentally. Last year, the Cavs lost the first two games of the Eastern Conference Finals to Detroit before winning four straight games. Someone asked James if this game reminded him of what the Cavs did last season; he correctly noted that last year's game three win was very close (88-82) and added that he could not really answer that question until he sees how the Cavs do in game four this year. James has had a lot of shots go in and out and even though outside shooting is his weakness, there is nothing fundamentally wrong with the way that he is shooting now (see Notes from Courtside for more details about this), so the Celtics have to be a bit concerned that James is due for a 40 point explosion at some point.

While James exudes a confidence that surely must be a boost to his teammates, Garnett and Pierce entered the postgame interview room looking like someone had just died. They spoke in monotone whispers and Garnett testily admitted that he has no explanation for why the Celtics are playing so poorly on the road in the playoffs after being one of the better road teams in the league during the regular season, saying that if he knew the reason then he wouldn't be sitting in front of the media talking about another loss.

I wonder what Garnett and Pierce's teammates think when they see the team's leaders look so downtrodden. Keep in mind that the Celtics still lead 2-1 and they enjoy homecourt advantage in this series. Garnett and Pierce certainly have every right to be disappointed by this loss but the correct message to send to their team is that they expect to win game four; they mouthed those words, talking about watching film and making adjustments, but their body language said something else, projecting a message that should be alarming to Boston fans. Perhaps I am reading too much into this but it seems like this loss shook the Celtics' confidence; they seemed genuinely surprised by how badly they got beaten. This is why I definitely think that Cleveland missed a golden opportunity in game one, because snatching homecourt advantage from the Celtics right off the bat would have been a big blow to a team that has not been through the playoff wars together. Cleveland has to win a game in Boston to take this series but a James-led Cavs team may very well be more equipped to win in Boston than a Garnett/Pierce-led team is to win in Cleveland. If the Cavs win game four then the Celtics will face a lot of pressure in game five.

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Notes From Courtside:

Former Ohio State standout Chris Jent, who was a member of the Houston Rockets' 1994 championship team, has held the title of Assistant Coach/Director of Player Development for the Cavaliers since November 2006. You can see him on the court a couple hours before every game working out various Cleveland reserve players to improve their skills and their understanding of Cleveland's game plan. He also has been working with James to improve his outside shot and his free throw shooting. James seemed to have made strides in those areas as far back as last summer during the FIBA Americas Tournament but, obviously, his outside shot has not looked good in the first three games of the Boston series.

Prior to game three, I spoke with Jent not only about James' problems but also in general about the process of coaching players to become better shooters:

Friedman: "When you work with players to try to improve their shooting, what are some of the technical aspects that you focus on and that you try to get them to change?"

Jent: "First of all, I think that more than (focusing on) how they are shooting the ball you try to get them to shoot more shots and to take pride in the fact that it needs to be worked on in order for them to improve."

Friedman: "You mean more practice shots?"

Jent: "More practice shots, just to create a muscle memory. Obviously, then you start to talk about the things that they need to do properly in order to create good habits."

Friedman: "Do you focus a lot on form? A guy like Reggie Miller had an odd looking release but he could shoot well. If a player has an odd looking form do you try to change that or do you look more at whether or not the shot is a functional shot that is being released the same way each time?"

Jent: "I think that jump shooting sometimes is a lot like personalities--people have their own way of doing things as far as shooting the ball goes. Maybe you just try to tweak certain things in order to make them more efficient but if they naturally shoot a certain way unless they just can't shoot you try to adhere to what they are comfortable with and how they did it originally and then you just tinker with different things that you think might help them improve."

Friedman: "Free throw shooting is one thing that players tend to improve at during their careers; if you look at rebounding and other stats that have to do with athleticism, they tend to decline as a player gets older but free throw shooting tends to improve: Magic Johnson went from about 76% early in his career to around 90%. LeBron is obviously in the low 70s as a free throw shooter. What is the difference between being a low 70s shooter and an 85-90 percent shooter and how do you bridge that gap?"

Jent: "I think that at the free throw line it is more mental. Really, I think that as you get a little bit older your mind (improves) and you are able to concentrate; you have shot more and you have the muscle memory to go with it but I think it's more of a mental maturity and a focus at the line that allows you to be a better shooter."

Friedman: "Do you have a target free throw percentage that you would like to see LeBron reach at some point that you think is a realistic goal and that maybe you have even talked to him about and said that we are trying to get to this area as opposed to being in the low 70s?"

Jent: "Yeah. We've talked all year about 80 percent being a number that was achievable and is something that he can do. There were months when he shot 80 percent, so it was just a couple games here and there where he shot poorly to kill that average, but 80 is certainly the number in mind."

Friedman: "The number that everybody is talking about right now is the 1-27 that LeBron has shot on field goals outside of the paint (in the first two games versus Boston). When you are looking at this from a technical standpoint, is he doing something different in these first two games that--"

Jent: "LeBron just has to shoot the ball. He's our guy and he's our main player, so when he's open he's got to shoot."

Friedman: "Right. No one is going to recommend that your best player not shoot but do you see a difference in what he is doing?"

Jent: "No. It's hard to put your finger on it. The most important thing--and I know that he gets tired of hearing it--is the next shot. The next shot is what matters and you have to approach the next shot like you are going to make it.

Friedman: "There have been stretches--like in the FIBA Americas Tournament last summer--when his shot looks really good and then he goes through these stretches when it doesn't look good. Do you think that from a technical standpoint he is holding true throughout those stretches?"

Jent: "I think that he's been solid. Balance was the big issue for us that we attacked this summer and he's been on balance, he's been open and they haven't been going in. It's frustrating for anyone, but as far as technically goes I think that he is spot on and I think that if he shoots the ball form-wise like he did in those first two games then every time (he shoots) I think the ball is going in."

Friedman: "When you mention balance are you talking about landing roughly in the same spot where you took off and not drifting to the side or drifting backwards?"

Jent: "He's going to move a little bit because he is such a big individual but the starting point is very important. His balance when he starts often determines if he is balanced when he finishes, just keeping his chest on the rim, feet basically squared to the rim and just giving it a chance (to go in)."

Friedman: "You talked a lot about the mental aspects of free throw shooting. Do you think that mentally it affects LeBron that first with San Antonio and now with Boston that it is pretty obvious that their defense is almost daring him to shoot the outside shot? Do you think that affects a player, not even just with LeBron but in general, do you think that it affects a player if the other team is basically daring him to shoot and is essentially saying, 'We're giving this to you'? Someone who has had as much success as LeBron has had is probably not used to a team saying that it wants him to shoot."

Jent: "The one thing that affects LeBron the most is that he is looking for angles to pass the ball. When he comes off of a pick and roll he is not necessarily thinking shot or drive. He is thinking about how the defense is playing him and where can he get the ball on this possession--unselfishly thinking about passing the ball. When people put bodies in front of him and take away those lanes and make it so that he can't drive the ball and basically has one option it's hard, because shooting is a secondary option (from James' point of view). The bottom line is that he has to take the space (that the defense is giving him) and shoot the ball."

Friedman: "If I understand what you are saying would it be correct in a sense to say that they are almost using his unselfishness against him? They know that he wants to pass as a first option, so they are getting into the passing lanes and not letting him do that."

Jent (smiles): "I'm not in their locker room, so I don't know their philosophy."

Friedman: "Right, but they are taking away something that he wants to do."

Jent: "The way that they are playing him has been effective but he has gotten very good looks. Typically, he knocks those down and we fully expect--and I'm sure he fully expects--to knock those down tonight."

Friedman: "Would it be right to say that tonight if he comes off that pick and roll play against that same kind of defense where they are giving him that shot that he is just going to shoot immediately and not even look to pass and get into situations where he is committing turnovers?"

Jent: "I hope so."

Friedman: "That is what you are looking for as a coaching staff?"

Jent (smiles): "Well, I'm not saying that as the staff but just talking as an individual I'd like to see him take the space that is being given and knock the shot down and shoot it with confidence. Do everything with confidence and it will work out for him."

Labels: Ben Wallace, Boston Celtics, Chris Jent, Cleveland Cavaliers, Delonte West, Hank Egan, Kevin Garnett, LeBron James, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Wally Szczerbiak

posted by David Friedman @ 10:00 AM

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Hank Egan Explains Gregg Popovich's Thought Process Regarding the "Hack a Shaq"

On several occasions, I have questioned the soundness of the intentional fouling strategy (Hack a Shaq). However, since Gregg Popovich--one of the best coaches in the NBA--is a proponent of this approach I realize that he must see some benefit to it. Cleveland assistant coach Hank Egan was on Popovich's San Antonio staff for eight years, including the 1999 championship season, and much like Tom Thibodeau gets credit for Boston's great defensive prowess Egan also deserves accolades for helping to develop the defense that enabled Cleveland to make it to the NBA Finals last season. Prior to game three of the Boston-Cleveland series, I spoke in detail with Egan about the pros and cons of the intentional fouling strategy.

Friedman: "In the NBA, a possession is considered to be worth about a point on average. Buying that premise, if the person who is being fouled during an intentional fouling situation shoots even just 50% then his team is scoring a point per possession and it seems to me that, from a mathematical standpoint, the team that is doing the fouling is not gaining any benefit--but I know that Gregg Popovich, who is one of the great coaches in the NBA, can do the same calculation that I just did and he employs that strategy anyway. Based on your experience being on his staff and all of your years as a defensive-minded coach, why would a defensive-oriented team that prides itself on stopping the other team without fouling go to a strategy that seems like it does not work mathematically if the fouled player can make just half of his free throws?"

Egan: "It's not just mathematics; it's people. People get discouraged--they can't get into their offense and they lose the flow of the game, so it has a disruptive effect if nothing else. You get a psychological effect--are they going to take this player out because they are worried that he is going to be fouled all the time? It may cost you a point but you are putting pressure on him to perform at the free throw line and hoping that he does not make anything."

Friedman: "Is there a conscious calculation that is made between the mathematics of how much this may cost versus the psychological benefit that one hopes to gain? Does it ever get that specific?"

Egan: "No, but there is an understanding that we are going to do this knowing that it could backfire on us."

Friedman: "So there is a recognition that it could backfire because of the numbers that I described?"

Egan: "Yes, exactly."

Friedman: "In terms of the psychological aspect you brought up and the question of flow, my observation from the outside--and, obviously, I am not an NBA coach--is that the team that is shooting the free throws can set up its half court defense during the stoppage of play and that this can have a bad effect on the offensive flow of the fouling team."

Egan: "Absolutely; that is all part of the risk. That is not a statistic, that is just a fact; it can be disruptive to the game both ways because it takes you out of your running game, it can let the other team get stops--it does all of those things but you are doing this to try to prove to the other team that this player is a detriment to the other team at that particular time. If he misses a couple in a row, even though mathematically he is probably going to make a couple down the road the other team is probably going to pull him. Then you accomplish what you want to accomplish."

Friedman: "In a way, if the other team is going strictly by the math and not letting this get into their heads then they can even tell the guy just make the 50% you normally make, we'll keep you in the game and this is not going to have a bad effect on us. Otherwise, the team that is getting fouled is letting the other team determine their player rotations."

Egan: "But you're not sending a machine up there to the free throw line; you're sending a guy to the free throw line and you're putting pressure on him because he is being exposed in front of everybody and you're hoping to capitalize on that moment."

Friedman: "What interested me when the analysts talked about this on TV is that they said Popovich actually believes in doing this even more when he is ahead. Some coaches use this as a comeback strategy, like Don Nelson tried years ago--we're trailing, so we're going to go into the 'hack a somebody' mode. Popovich uses this when he is ahead and I thought that is interesting because I thought that when you are ahead your defense is working and everything is working, so why would you risk affecting the flow?"

Egan: "I think he is betting on the pressure of the moment. You are talking about 'Hack-a-Shaq,' because that is the guy he hacks."

Friedman: "Right, but it's been done to Ben Wallace and he did it to Tyson Chandler at least once in a recent game."

Egan: "He'll only do it against effective people. Shaq can affect the game, Ben Wallace can affect the game with his defense and rebounding, Chandler affects the game with his defense and rebounding. Popovich is doing this to neutralize the guy, to make the other team think that maybe you don't need him on the floor or don't want him on the floor."

Friedman: "It sounds like what you are saying is--even though we understand that we are dealing with people, not machines--that if the other team understands that this is a mind game and the shooter does not let it affect him then the fouling strategy could backfire due to the numbers."

Egan: "I think that the single most pressure thing in a basketball game is shooting a free throw. You're out there in front of everybody, there is nothing else involved and you are supposed to make it. If you miss it's a big letdown but if you make it you were supposed to make it. That's a great deal of pressure. If you hack Shaq he may make a free throw the first time but if you keep fouling him during the course of a game you are exposing him to this pressure."

Friedman: "You're hoping for a cumulative effect."

Egan: "Yes, you're hoping there will be. You're taking a risk. You know it, you think it's a calculated risk, but you are taking a risk."

Friedman: "That's what I am getting at, what you just said and you've used the word 'risk' a couple times. There is a risk to this strategy and when people talk about this they don't mention what I said about the numbers and what you are acknowledging, that there is a risk that is involved. It could backfire and I don't think that people realize that the threshold is just 50 percent."

Egan: "I think that it could (backfire). Pop can do this now with the team he has because they are not going to lose their poise. If you are doing this with a team that does not have their stuff together and is not a mature team that has been together a while and you get away from your game plan then you are making your team think that the only way we can win is by hacking this guy."

Friedman: "That could be psychologically discouraging."

Egan: "Yeah."

Coach Egan later told me that the Spurs did not use the intentional fouling strategy during his years with the squad precisely because at that time the Spurs were not as poised and mature as the current San Antonio nucleus that has won multiple championships together. I think that Coach Egan's explanation of Popovich's thinking about the intentional fouling strategy also provides some insight into Popovich's general mindset in terms of applying psychological pressure against the opposing team's coaching staff and one of its star players. Such nuances are part of the reason why the Spurs have been so consistently successful for the better part of a decade while rival teams (most notably the Suns) have no championship trophies but plenty of excuses and plenty of stories about the big fish (championship) that they had on their fishing rod but that managed to get away at the last minute.

Labels: Gregg Popovich, Hack a Shaq, Hank Egan

posted by David Friedman @ 9:34 AM

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