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Sunday, May 11, 2008

Cavs Use Ball Movement, Balance to Topple Celtics

LeBron James and Delonte West had 21 points each to lead a balanced scoring attack as the Cleveland Cavaliers routed the Boston Celtics 108-84 to cut Boston's lead to 2-1 in their second round playoff series. Joe Smith added 17 points on 7-8 field goal shooting, Wally Szczerbiak scored 16 points and Zydrunas Ilgauskas had 12 points, eight rebounds and a playoff career-high six assists. Ben Wallace, whose playing status was uncertain until right before game time due to allergies and an inner ear infection, contributed nine points, nine rebounds and a lot of high energy hustle plays that do not show up in the boxscore. West and Smith each tied their playoff career-highs in scoring. Kevin Garnett led the Celtics with 17 points and nine rebounds but his All-Star sidekicks Paul Pierce (14 points, five assists, 3-8 field goal shooting) and Ray Allen (10 points, four assists, 4-12 field goal shooting) had very quiet games. Pierce and Allen should be happy that James' poor shooting is grabbing all the headlines because they are shooting .343 and .308 from the field respectively in this series.

James shot 5-16 (.313) from the field in game three but even though that is an improvement over his 8-42 shooting (.190) in the first two games he now holds the dubious distinction of posting the worst field goal percentage by any player in three consecutive postseason games since the NBA-ABA merger in 1976. The flip side of that, as James noted in his postgame remarks, is that he can contribute in many ways besides scoring: James had eight assists, five rebounds, four steals and three blocked shots in game three and he is averaging 7.7 apg, 6.3 rpg, 2.3 spg and 1.7 bpg versus Boston. James also had just two turnovers after coughing up the ball 17 times in the first two games. After the game, he candidly admitted that he made some "lazy" passes in those games because he did not give enough respect to the Celtics' defense. The fact that Cleveland can blow out a 66 win Boston team even when James shoots poorly and scores nine points less than his league-leading regular season average puts the lie to Stephen A. Smith's claim that James is surrounded by "trash." The Cavs have 10 legitimate rotation players, which means that some guys who can play don't get much run unless someone gets hurt or is in foul trouble; in addition to starters James, Wallace, Ilgauskas, West and Szczerbiak, the Cavs have quality reserves in Smith, Anderson Varejao, Daniel Gibson, Devin Brown and Sasha Pavlovic. Gibson was a playoff hero last year, Varejao's defense, rebounding and energy are valuable, Brown can score, Smith can score and rebound and Pavlovic started for last year's team that made it to the NBA Finals. Any NBA coach is happy if he has an eight player rotation that he trusts and none of those 10 players even come close to deserving the "trash" designation. The two negatives about Cleveland's rotation are that the Cavs do not have a second star player--former All-Star Ilgauskas comes closest to fitting that bill--and that the Cavs are still getting used to playing together in the wake of a season filled with holdouts, injuries and the big trade; that lack of continuity probably goes a long way toward explaining why this team can look terrible one night and great the next night.

Although Boston scored the first four points of the game, Cleveland quickly took over by playing with aggressiveness at both ends of the court; the Cavs were very active defensively and on offense they did a great job of passing the ball crisply, probing for weaknesses and then making open shots. After the game, Cleveland Coach Mike Brown said of Boston, "They're a very good strong side defensive team. We've emphasized from day one that you've got to get that ball from one side of the floor to the other. You've got to move that defense and when you're moving it you've got to move it with a purpose. I thought our guys were poised and patient and did that tonight."

Cleveland used 14-0 and 9-0 first quarter runs to build a 32-13 lead after 12 minutes. James had just five first quarter points, scoring on a fast break dunk and a three pointer, just his second made field goal outside of the paint in the first nine quarters of the series. All five Cleveland starters scored in the first quarter; Szczerbiak led the way with seven points, while Wallace took advantage of the fact that the Celtics largely ignore him, scoring six points on 3-3 shooting just by being active near the front of the rim. The Celtics shot just 6-19 (.316) from the field and committed five turnovers, while the Cavs shot 13-20 (.650) and had no turnovers.

The Cavs achieved their biggest lead of the game, 26 points, after a wild sequence early in the second quarter. James drove to the hoop only to be clotheslined by James Posey, a player who has a history of committing flagrant fouls. While James lay on the ground trying to collect himself, Varejao got right in Posey's face. Posey and Varejao were each given technical fouls and Posey was also called for a flagrant one foul, which does not entail automatic ejection; the severity and nature of the contact (a blow to the head and neck) certainly seemed to warrant a flagrant two foul and it will be interesting to see if the NBA upgrades that foul and further penalizes Posey; ESPN announcers Mark Jackson and Jeff Van Gundy thought that the flagrant one call was sufficient because, in their opinion, Posey was trying to simply wrap James up but when James went low Posey's arm connected with his neck. My understanding is that the officials are supposed to make their flagrant foul rulings based on windup, impact and follow through regardless of what they think a player's intentions were and based on those factors I think that a flagrant two is warranted in this case, though on seeing some replays I do understand Jackson and Van Gundy's point--but I still disagree with them. James made both free throws and Szczerbiak scored on a short jumper to put Cleveland up 43-17 but the Cavs did not score for the next 3:22 and by halftime the Celtics had cut the lead to 52-35, a significant but by no means insurmountable margin. Szczerbiak was the only player from either team who scored in double figures in the first half (14 points on 4-5 field goal shooting). James had seven points on 2-6 field goal shooting.

James electrified the crowd early in the third quarter with one of the best blocked shots you will ever see; Rajon Rondo seemed to have a clear path for a fast break layup but James caught him from behind and pinned Rondo's shot to the backboard Rucker Park-style, wiping the glass with the ball. That led to a West three pointer that made the score 60-41, Cleveland. The Celtics never got closer than 12 points the rest of the way and the Cavs closed the game with an 11-4 run to open up their biggest lead since the second quarter.

I've seen James up close before and after a lot of playoff games and he does a pretty good job of living by Rudyard Kipling's maxim to meet "Triumph and Disaster/And treat those two imposters just the same." Win or lose, James always has an air of quiet confidence; he does not get too elated in victory nor does he get discouraged by defeat--and if you can avoid being discouraged (at least externally) after shooting 8-42 in two losses then you are pretty strong mentally. Last year, the Cavs lost the first two games of the Eastern Conference Finals to Detroit before winning four straight games. Someone asked James if this game reminded him of what the Cavs did last season; he correctly noted that last year's game three win was very close (88-82) and added that he could not really answer that question until he sees how the Cavs do in game four this year. James has had a lot of shots go in and out and even though outside shooting is his weakness, there is nothing fundamentally wrong with the way that he is shooting now (see Notes from Courtside for more details about this), so the Celtics have to be a bit concerned that James is due for a 40 point explosion at some point.

While James exudes a confidence that surely must be a boost to his teammates, Garnett and Pierce entered the postgame interview room looking like someone had just died. They spoke in monotone whispers and Garnett testily admitted that he has no explanation for why the Celtics are playing so poorly on the road in the playoffs after being one of the better road teams in the league during the regular season, saying that if he knew the reason then he wouldn't be sitting in front of the media talking about another loss.

I wonder what Garnett and Pierce's teammates think when they see the team's leaders look so downtrodden. Keep in mind that the Celtics still lead 2-1 and they enjoy homecourt advantage in this series. Garnett and Pierce certainly have every right to be disappointed by this loss but the correct message to send to their team is that they expect to win game four; they mouthed those words, talking about watching film and making adjustments, but their body language said something else, projecting a message that should be alarming to Boston fans. Perhaps I am reading too much into this but it seems like this loss shook the Celtics' confidence; they seemed genuinely surprised by how badly they got beaten. This is why I definitely think that Cleveland missed a golden opportunity in game one, because snatching homecourt advantage from the Celtics right off the bat would have been a big blow to a team that has not been through the playoff wars together. Cleveland has to win a game in Boston to take this series but a James-led Cavs team may very well be more equipped to win in Boston than a Garnett/Pierce-led team is to win in Cleveland. If the Cavs win game four then the Celtics will face a lot of pressure in game five.

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Notes From Courtside:

Former Ohio State standout Chris Jent, who was a member of the Houston Rockets' 1994 championship team, has held the title of Assistant Coach/Director of Player Development for the Cavaliers since November 2006. You can see him on the court a couple hours before every game working out various Cleveland reserve players to improve their skills and their understanding of Cleveland's game plan. He also has been working with James to improve his outside shot and his free throw shooting. James seemed to have made strides in those areas as far back as last summer during the FIBA Americas Tournament but, obviously, his outside shot has not looked good in the first three games of the Boston series.

Prior to game three, I spoke with Jent not only about James' problems but also in general about the process of coaching players to become better shooters:

Friedman: "When you work with players to try to improve their shooting, what are some of the technical aspects that you focus on and that you try to get them to change?"

Jent: "First of all, I think that more than (focusing on) how they are shooting the ball you try to get them to shoot more shots and to take pride in the fact that it needs to be worked on in order for them to improve."

Friedman: "You mean more practice shots?"

Jent: "More practice shots, just to create a muscle memory. Obviously, then you start to talk about the things that they need to do properly in order to create good habits."

Friedman: "Do you focus a lot on form? A guy like Reggie Miller had an odd looking release but he could shoot well. If a player has an odd looking form do you try to change that or do you look more at whether or not the shot is a functional shot that is being released the same way each time?"

Jent: "I think that jump shooting sometimes is a lot like personalities--people have their own way of doing things as far as shooting the ball goes. Maybe you just try to tweak certain things in order to make them more efficient but if they naturally shoot a certain way unless they just can't shoot you try to adhere to what they are comfortable with and how they did it originally and then you just tinker with different things that you think might help them improve."

Friedman: "Free throw shooting is one thing that players tend to improve at during their careers; if you look at rebounding and other stats that have to do with athleticism, they tend to decline as a player gets older but free throw shooting tends to improve: Magic Johnson went from about 76% early in his career to around 90%. LeBron is obviously in the low 70s as a free throw shooter. What is the difference between being a low 70s shooter and an 85-90 percent shooter and how do you bridge that gap?"

Jent: "I think that at the free throw line it is more mental. Really, I think that as you get a little bit older your mind (improves) and you are able to concentrate; you have shot more and you have the muscle memory to go with it but I think it's more of a mental maturity and a focus at the line that allows you to be a better shooter."

Friedman: "Do you have a target free throw percentage that you would like to see LeBron reach at some point that you think is a realistic goal and that maybe you have even talked to him about and said that we are trying to get to this area as opposed to being in the low 70s?"

Jent: "Yeah. We've talked all year about 80 percent being a number that was achievable and is something that he can do. There were months when he shot 80 percent, so it was just a couple games here and there where he shot poorly to kill that average, but 80 is certainly the number in mind."

Friedman: "The number that everybody is talking about right now is the 1-27 that LeBron has shot on field goals outside of the paint (in the first two games versus Boston). When you are looking at this from a technical standpoint, is he doing something different in these first two games that--"

Jent: "LeBron just has to shoot the ball. He's our guy and he's our main player, so when he's open he's got to shoot."

Friedman: "Right. No one is going to recommend that your best player not shoot but do you see a difference in what he is doing?"

Jent: "No. It's hard to put your finger on it. The most important thing--and I know that he gets tired of hearing it--is the next shot. The next shot is what matters and you have to approach the next shot like you are going to make it.

Friedman: "There have been stretches--like in the FIBA Americas Tournament last summer--when his shot looks really good and then he goes through these stretches when it doesn't look good. Do you think that from a technical standpoint he is holding true throughout those stretches?"

Jent: "I think that he's been solid. Balance was the big issue for us that we attacked this summer and he's been on balance, he's been open and they haven't been going in. It's frustrating for anyone, but as far as technically goes I think that he is spot on and I think that if he shoots the ball form-wise like he did in those first two games then every time (he shoots) I think the ball is going in."

Friedman: "When you mention balance are you talking about landing roughly in the same spot where you took off and not drifting to the side or drifting backwards?"

Jent: "He's going to move a little bit because he is such a big individual but the starting point is very important. His balance when he starts often determines if he is balanced when he finishes, just keeping his chest on the rim, feet basically squared to the rim and just giving it a chance (to go in)."

Friedman: "You talked a lot about the mental aspects of free throw shooting. Do you think that mentally it affects LeBron that first with San Antonio and now with Boston that it is pretty obvious that their defense is almost daring him to shoot the outside shot? Do you think that affects a player, not even just with LeBron but in general, do you think that it affects a player if the other team is basically daring him to shoot and is essentially saying, 'We're giving this to you'? Someone who has had as much success as LeBron has had is probably not used to a team saying that it wants him to shoot."

Jent: "The one thing that affects LeBron the most is that he is looking for angles to pass the ball. When he comes off of a pick and roll he is not necessarily thinking shot or drive. He is thinking about how the defense is playing him and where can he get the ball on this possession--unselfishly thinking about passing the ball. When people put bodies in front of him and take away those lanes and make it so that he can't drive the ball and basically has one option it's hard, because shooting is a secondary option (from James' point of view). The bottom line is that he has to take the space (that the defense is giving him) and shoot the ball."

Friedman: "If I understand what you are saying would it be correct in a sense to say that they are almost using his unselfishness against him? They know that he wants to pass as a first option, so they are getting into the passing lanes and not letting him do that."

Jent (smiles): "I'm not in their locker room, so I don't know their philosophy."

Friedman: "Right, but they are taking away something that he wants to do."

Jent: "The way that they are playing him has been effective but he has gotten very good looks. Typically, he knocks those down and we fully expect--and I'm sure he fully expects--to knock those down tonight."

Friedman: "Would it be right to say that tonight if he comes off that pick and roll play against that same kind of defense where they are giving him that shot that he is just going to shoot immediately and not even look to pass and get into situations where he is committing turnovers?"

Jent: "I hope so."

Friedman: "That is what you are looking for as a coaching staff?"

Jent (smiles): "Well, I'm not saying that as the staff but just talking as an individual I'd like to see him take the space that is being given and knock the shot down and shoot it with confidence. Do everything with confidence and it will work out for him."

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posted by David Friedman @ 10:00 AM

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Thursday, April 17, 2008

Mission Accomplished: Pistons, Cavs Avoid Injuries in Season Finale

Detroit beat Cleveland 84-74 at Quicken Loans Arena in the season finale for both teams. The outcome of this game had no possible effect on playoff positioning for either team and after the game Detroit Coach Flip Saunders succinctly summarized the objective in such contests: "I think both teams accomplished what they needed to accomplish--they came out pretty healthy." Toward that end, LeBron James and Zydrunas Ilgauskas did not play at all and most of the key rotation players for both teams played significantly fewer minutes than usual. The Pistons' starting five played for the entire first quarter but then took the rest of the night off; they did not exactly seem fully committed in their efforts, as each player made just one field goal and they combined to shoot 5-20 from the field as the Cavaliers took a 21-13 lead. The Cavaliers started two regular starters (Ben Wallace and Delonte West) alongside three players who usually come off of the bench: Anderson Varejao, Wally Szczerbiak and Damon Jones. Szczerbiak finished with a game-high 18 points, Varejao had four points and eight rebounds in just under 20 minutes of action and Jones shot 1-12 from the field, scoring four points. The Cavaliers led for most of the game but the Pistons outscored them 28-15 in the fourth quarter as the final stanza turned into the Walter Herrmann show, as the Argentine forward scored eight points on 3-3 field goal shooting. He finished with 11 points. Arron Afflalo led Detroit with 15 points, adding eight rebounds and four assists. The Detroit bench outscored the Cleveland bench 71-32; part of that had to do with Cleveland using three bench players as starters but this also reflects how much overall depth the Pistons have. That depth could be very useful in the playoffs but it should be remembered that in crucial postseason games starters tend to play more than 40 minutes unless they are injured or get in foul trouble.

Although one game is obviously a very small sample size, one thing that stands out in the boxscore is Jones' shooting performance; not only did he miss 11 of 12 shots but he also missed all four of his three point field goal attempts. For the season he shot .407 from three point range, ranking among the league leaders. There is a very good reason that he shot so poorly in this game and this reason illustrates why basketball can never be completely understood by simply crunching numbers blindly without actually watching games and understanding the interactions between various players. During the MVP discussion we hear a lot of talk about the relative strengths of the supporting casts of the various contenders. A distinction should be made between good players who benefit from playing alongside MVP-level players versus role players who are heavily dependent on an MVP-level player to create open shots for them. For instance, Ilgauskas has been an All-Star center in previous years, so whether or not he plays alongside James he would be productive, though obviously James' passing skills and ability to draw double-teams help Ilgauskas out. On the other hand, Damon Jones simply cannot consistently create a good open shot for himself at the NBA level; most of his misses versus Detroit came after he tried to free himself using off the dribble moves. Jones' high three point field goal percentage during the course of the season is a credit to his skill at making open jumpers but without James to draw the defense Jones would not be a very productive player. It should be obvious how this reasoning applies to the MVP discussion: when people speak of the strength of various supporting casts based purely on the statistics those players produced it is important to know which players are capable of creating their own shots and which players put up good numbers precisely because they played alongside an MVP-level player. To cite an obvious example, Andrew Bynum certainly deserves credit for improving his skills and he played a role in the Lakers' 25-11 start--but a substantial portion of his offense consisted of diving to the hoop and catching passes for easy dunks, taking advantage of openings in the defense that were created because the opposing team was trapping Kobe Bryant. Bynum has only just begun to develop a back to the basket post game. In contrast, Pau Gasol is a good player who benefits from the defensive coverage that Bryant receives but Gasol is also capable of creating his own shot and on occasion he draws extra defensive coverage as well. New Orleans has a similar big man duo with David West and Tyson Chandler; West is an All-Star who benefits from playing with Chris Paul but he also can create his own offense, while Chandler is very dependent on receiving lob passes and taking advantage of openings created when the defense is forced to cover Paul, West or the sharpshooting Peja Stojakovic. Of course, a big difference between West/Chandler and Bynum/Gasol is that West/Chandler have not only played together longer but they have been healthy for the vast majority of the season, while Bynum and Gasol have yet to take the court together and probably will not do so until next season.

Anyone who just crunches numbers without understanding the context in which they were produced will be apt to reach false conclusions about how well certain players will perform in various situations. A given player may score and shoot at one level while playing alongside Bryant, James or Paul but not be able to replicate those performances in other situations. In other words, such a player's numbers say more about Bryant, James or Paul than they do about the true strength of a given supporting cast--unless of course one is comparing a supporting cast of players who are able to be productive while playing alongside superstars to a supporting cast that is not even able to be productive in such a favorable circumstance (the names Kwame Brown and Smush Parker should come readily to mind here).

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Notes From Courtside:

Last year, the Cavs designated the home finale "Fan Appreciation Night" and gave away more than $500,000 worth of prizes to the fans while also providing free massages and a large cake for the writers and photographers. The Cavs did the same thing on Wednesday--and they increased the total value of the prizes awarded to over $1,000,000, including a 2008 Kia Spectra 5, an hhgregg home entertainment system and a free year of Time Warner HDTV cable. The shoes and jerseys worn by the Cavaliers versus the Pistons were also given away to fans. The fans clearly appreciate what they are seeing from the Cavaliers throughout the season, because Cleveland set franchise records for sellouts (33) and average attendance (20,465).

***

LeBron James won his first scoring title, averaging exactly 30.0 ppg, scoring 2250 points in 75 games. James has averaged at least 27 ppg, six apg and six rpg for four straight seasons, a feat only accomplished by Oscar Robertson, who achieved those levels in the first eight seasons of his career.

***

I previously mentioned that the Cavs keep track of "hockey assists." A "hockey assist" is a pass that leads to a pass that is counted in the boxscore as an assist. Prior to the Detroit game, James led the team with 175 hockey assists, Ilgauskas ranked second with 97 and Daniel Gibson ranked third with 75. On a per minute basis, West leads the team with .06 hockey assists per minute, with James and Gibson just behind him. West, who joined the team after a midseason trade, has notched 46 hockey assists as a Cavalier.

***

During Cleveland Coach Mike Brown's pregame standup I asked him this question: "This season you are scoring about the same number of points that you did last year but you are giving up about three more points per game defensively. What do you think are the main reasons that the defense is not quite where it was last season?"

Coach Brown replied, "We spent a little bit more time on the offensive end of the floor, trying to tweak some things. We didn't pay as much attention to the defensive end of the floor. In a nutshell that is probably it. I could continue to tell you that our weakside (defense) was not as good, our pick and roll defense was not as good, we gave up too many middle drives this year--some technical things that we did not do as well."

The extra attention devoted to offense could explain why the defense slipped a little bit but one natural followup would be to ask why there was not a corresponding increase in offensive efficiency. However, I think that the obvious answer to that one is the roster instability caused by injuries and the big midseason trade, so instead I asked this followup question: "Going into the playoffs, is that emphasis going to switch because there will be fewer possessions each game?"

Coach Brown answered, "If you look at where we started defensively in the first couple months of the season and where we are now, I think that in the past couple months we have been emphasizing defense more and I think that we have gone from 20-something in both categories to around 10th in both categories now, in terms of opponents' field goal percentage and points allowed. So that is something that we have emphasized for a while but not at the beginning of the season."

Cleveland finished the season ranked ninth in ppg allowed and 11th in opponents' field goal percentage.

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posted by David Friedman @ 10:18 AM

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Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Cleveland's Trade: A "Mid-Term" Report Card

One of the most interesting things that I discovered while doing the research for this article is that, despite all the talk about how much work LeBron James has done to improve his outside shooting and his free throw shooting, his three point percentage has declined for the third straight season and his free throw percentage is below his career average. He has had some games in which he shot very well from one or both of those areas but, as a rule, he is a streak shooter from both distances and the cold streaks last longer than the hot ones.

Prior to tonight's game versus Detroit, Cleveland had played 14 games since trading away six players to acquire Ben Wallace, Joe Smith, Wally Szczerbiak and Delonte West and the Cavaliers had 14 games remaining before the end of the season. Therefore, now is the perfect time to issue a "mid-term" report card about the trade's impact on the Cavaliers (6/17/15 edit: the link to CavsNews.com no longer works, so I have posted the original article below):


As of March 18, the Cleveland Cavaliers have played 14 games since acquiring Ben Wallace, Joe Smith, Wally Szczerbiak and Delonte West in exchange for six players. There are 14 games left in the regular season, so now is a perfect time to issue a “mid-term” report card about the trade’s impact on the Cavaliers. Obviously, final grades will not be issued until the playoffs are over.

In the first game after the trade, the Cavs were not able to use their new players but they still managed to eke out a one point win over a Washington team that was without the services of injured All-Stars Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler. Since that time, except for one missed game by Szczerbiak and one and a half missed games by Wallace, the new Cavs have played in all 13 games. Cleveland went 7-6 in those games. Other than a 92-87 road loss to the Boston Celtics, Cleveland did not face any teams that would be considered legitimate championship contenders; in fact, the majority of those games were against teams that will not even make the playoffs. Clearly, being one game above .500 against that kind of competition is hardly a ringing endorsement of the deal.

Of course, there are a couple extenuating factors that must be considered. First, the Cavaliers are basically conducting training camp on the fly as they integrate the new players into their offensive and defensive systems and the new and established Cavs get used to playing with each other. Second, injuries have sidelined several key players, hurting the team’s depth and hindering efforts to establish a regular rotation and get everyone settled into their roles. Starting center Zydrunas Ilgauskas missed eight of these 13 games and the Cavaliers only went 4-4 in his absence. Sharpshooter Daniel Gibson missed all 13 games. Sasha Pavlovic missed the first nine games.

Contrary to popular belief, the presence or absence of players other than LeBron James has significantly affected the Cavs’ performance at various times this season. The team clearly struggled at the start of the season when Pavlovic and Anderson Varejao were holding out. Also, in several of the games that the team lost when James did not play other key players—notably Varejao and Larry Hughes—also were out of action. James is by far the most important player but a close examination of this season shows that the Cavs need to have most of their eight man rotation intact in order to be successful, particularly against good teams.

Considering that the team needs some time to adjust to the big trade and that injuries have taken an important toll recently, one could say that the “mid-term” report card should read “incomplete.” However, it is worth taking a closer look at the individual performances of the new players in order to try to project what their impact will be in the future. Before doing that, though, it is interesting to consider what effect—if any--all of this change has had on James’ production. He averaged 33.4 ppg, 7.6 rpg and 7.4 apg during the 13 games, shooting .487 from the field, .316 from three point range and .732 from the free throw line. How do those numbers compare to his season-long performance? His scoring is up significantly (more than 2 ppg), his free throw percentage is up marginally, his assists and field goal percentage are essentially unchanged and his rebounding is down slightly. There has been much talk about how much work James has put into his shooting stroke but his three point shooting percentage has declined for the third straight year and his free throw percentage is below his career average. James remains a streak shooter from both areas—and, unfortunately, the cold streaks last a lot longer than the hot ones: he shot 7-13 from three point range in his 50 point game in New York but he shot just 17-63 (.270) on three pointers in the other 12 games. Take out his 5-8 performance against Indiana and the numbers not only drop to 12-55 (.218) but he shot less than .300 from three point range in each of the other 11 games. His free throw shooting is not nearly as bad but is similarly inconsistent, ranging from back to back 11-12 outings to games in which he shot 2-5, 10-16 and 16-23.

Cleveland’s offense is heavily dependent on James’ ability to drive to the hoop and finish with authority combined with his great passing skills. The hope that Szczerbiak would relieve some pressure from James by making outside shots has not yet been realized. Szczerbiak is averaging just 9.2 ppg with the Cavs while shooting .313 from the field and .349 from three point range. He has not lost his shooting touch—as shown by the fact that he has made 23 of 24 free throws—but as a Cav he has not shown the ability to consistently make open jumpers in game situations. Even more worrisome, his recent numbers read like a countdown to oblivion: 31, 13, 10 and six minutes played resulting in seven, six, three and two points scored. His defense has never been great, so Szczerbiak seems to be playing himself right out of the rotation. Some publicity seeking wiseguys created a website specifically devoted to imploring Larry Hughes not to shoot, so it is worth mentioning that since the trade Hughes has averaged 15.3 ppg for the Bulls while shooting .406 from the field and .359 from three point range. He is playing more than 33 mpg and it should go without saying that his defense is much better than Szczerbiak’s.

Delonte West is probably the newcomer who has made the smoothest transition. Coach Mike Brown immediately installed him as the starting point guard and he has averaged 9.9 ppg, 4.2 apg and 3.9 rpg. He has already had a 20 point game, he had eight rebounds in another contest and he has posted seven assists twice. On the other hand, his field goal percentage (.426) is below his career average and even though he can help the Cavs at times in terms of pushing the ball up the court he has never been the type of player who can consistently get into the paint and draw fouls; West has attempted only 19 free throws in 13 games as a Cav and in six of those games he did not get to the free throw line even once.

Drew Gooden played an important role in Cleveland’s success, so Ben Wallace must be productive for the trade to be considered a success. So far, the best that can be said is that the results have been mixed. Back spasms caused Wallace to miss the second half of the Portland game and all of the next game versus the Nets. Perhaps they have limited him in other games as well; he has averaged 5.4 ppg, 8.3 rpg and 1.4 bpg as a Cav. Wallace has reached double figures in rebounding just three times as a Cav. His offensive limitations are well documented and—although I believe that he can be productive offensively as long as he sets screens, crashes the boards and finishes around the hoop—the fact that no one on the roster has emerged as a dependable scorer to complement James and Ilgauskas is worrisome and puts more pressure on Wallace to provide something at that end of the court. Gooden rebounded just as well as Wallace does and he is a much better shooter and scorer.

Joe Smith has been solid, if unspectacular, averaging 8.5 ppg and 6.1 rpg while shooting .487 from the field and .658 from the free throw line. He can step out and make the midrange jumper and he is rebounding well for the amount of minutes that he plays. Smith does not have three point range like Donyell Marshall but it is fair to say that this exchange was without question an upgrade for the Cavs.

Before the Cavs made this trade I asked Is the Status Quo Really So Bad for the Cavs? I argued that the Cavs should not break up the team that made it to the Finals unless they could make a deal that significantly improved the team’s chances to win in the playoffs. It is still possible that the positives of this trade—more frontcourt depth, Szczerbiak’s outside shooting, West’s ability to play point guard—will outweigh the negatives—questions about how much Wallace has left in the tank, Szczerbiak’s defense, whether or not the overall production of the “new” team in the playoffs will really match what the “old” team did last year--but so far the Cavaliers do not look like a better team now than they did either last season or even this season when the roster was completely intact. That said, it must be emphasized that this trade cannot be fairly and completely evaluated until all of the key players are healthy and we see how the team performs in the playoffs; if the Cavs get healthy, rededicate themselves to playing good defense on a nightly basis and get solid offensive production from someone other than James and Ilgauskas then they will still be a formidable playoff team.

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posted by David Friedman @ 3:40 PM

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