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Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Interesting Contrasts Between All-Defensive Team Voting and Defensive Player of the Year Voting

Media members vote for the NBA's Defensive Player of the Year Award, while the league's head coaches select the All-Defensive First and Second Teams (coaches are not permitted to choose players from their own squads). There were some interesting differences in the specific choices made by the media and coaches this season.

Tyson Chandler narrowly defeated Serge Ibaka to win the Defensive Player of the Year Award, 311-294; players receive five points for a first place vote, three points for a second place vote and one point for a third place vote. Chandler's name appeared on 81 out of 121 ballots while Ibaka's name appeared on 82 ballots but the difference was that Chandler received 45 first place votes while Ibaka received 41. Dwight Howard, who won the award the previous three seasons, finished a distant third, followed by Kevin Garnett, Tony Allen, Andre Iguodala, Shawn Marion, Luol Deng and Josh Smith; except for Smith, each of those players received at least one first place vote.

Media members can be easily swayed by compelling narratives (hopefully they are not influenced by who speaks with them on a given day or who gives them the best quotes) and the two narratives that apparently influenced the Defensive Player of the Year voting are (1) Tyson Chandler "changed the culture for the New York Knicks" (even though the Knicks were not any better this season than they were last season) and (2) Dwight Howard is annoyingly wishy washy and did not always play hard (even though he ranked third in the league in bpg, led the league in defensive rebounds for the fifth year in a row, tried to play with a ruptured disk in his back that ultimately required surgery and was the defensive linchpin for an Orlando team that does not have any other above average individual defensive players). In my 2012 NBA Awards article I explained why Howard should win the award, with James finishing second and Ibaka placing third.

The All-Defensive Teams are selected by position, so the raw voting totals cannot be directly compared with the Defensive Player of the Year voting totals, but the coaches did not value Chandler quite as highly as the media members did. Dwight Howard earned the First Team nod at center with 16 First Team votes and nine Second Team votes, while Chandler received Second Team honors. LeBron James received the most overall votes and was the only player chosen by every coach (24 First Team votes, five Second Team votes). Ibaka received the second most votes overall and joined James as a First Team forward. Chris Paul and Tony Allen are this year's First Team guards.

Kobe Bryant's streak of six straight All-Defensive First Team selections was snapped but he made the Second Team along with Rajon Rondo, Chandler and forwards Kevin Garnett and Luol Deng. Andre Iguodala actually outpointed Bryant 19-17 (First Team votes are worth two points, while Second Team votes are worth one point) but Iguodala presumably did not make the squad due to positional designation (Iguodala is a forward and he received one fewer point than Deng).

For the fourth time in the past five seasons, the coaches selected eight of the 10 players who I selected for the All-Defensive First and Second Teams (last season the coaches and I agreed on six of the 10 choices). The only difference between my First Team this season and the coaches' First Team is that I chose Grant Hill (who received one First Team vote from the coaches but did not get enough overall points to make the squad) while the coaches picked Chris Paul, who I put on my Second Team. The coaches and I both "demoted" Bryant to the Second Team but I chose Iguodala as a Second Team forward and I did not pick Rondo at all. My reasoning for leaving out Garnett is that he did not excel early in the season at forward and that even though he played very well for the rest of the season as a center he did not have more defensive impact at that position than Howard and Chandler did. While Garnett did perform at an All-Defensive Team level, he did not do so at forward and in this instance the lack of adherence to positional designations cost Iguodala. Hill is nominally a small forward but I put him at guard because he often defended point guards so that Steve Nash could "guard" the weakest perimeter scoring threat on the opposing team.

The "stat gurus" only know what their spreadsheets tell them--and their spreadsheets can only reflect back the biases that went into creating those spreadsheets--so each year around this time there is a torrent of articles declaring that NBA coaches do not have a clue about defense, which is a funny assertion considering that the coaches have to game plan for each team in the league and thus have at least some notion about which defenders cause problems for their teams.

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posted by David Friedman @ 3:05 PM

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Friday, February 10, 2012

All-Star Reserves Headlined by Championship-Winning Veterans and Five Newcomers

The 2012 NBA All-Star Game will include an interesting mixture of the old and the new. On Thursday the league announced the seven All-Star reserve players for each conference. Finals MVPs Dirk Nowitzki (2011) and Paul Pierce (2008) are All-Stars for the 11th and 10th times respectively and Steve Nash is just the fourth player to earn All-Star recognition at age 38 or older, joining Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Michael Jordan and Karl Malone. At the other end of the age/experience spectrum, LaMarcus Aldridge, Luol Deng, Marc Gasol, Roy Hibbert and Andre Iguodala each will be making their first trips to the midseason extravaganza.

The NBA head coaches select the All-Star reserves, voting only for players in their own conference and not being permitted to choose players from their own teams. The coaches ultimately selected 12 of the 14 players who I picked, differing only by giving Paul Pierce the nod over his teammate Rajon Rondo and taking Dirk Nowitzki instead of Danilo Gallinari (for what it's worth, my choices mirrored those of the coaches more so than the selections made by any of TNT's analysts). Even in a normal season, the All-Stars are chosen based on less than half a season's worth of work and in this lockout-shortened season the sample size is even smaller both in absolute and relative terms (i.e., the fans selected the All-Star starters based on fewer than 20 games played out of a 66 game schedule, while the coaches picked the reserves based on approximately 25 games played).

Chris Bosh is well deserving of his seventh All-Star selection; he has made the All-Star team more often than any other East reserve except for Pierce and more often than every East starter except for his Miami teammates LeBron James and Dwyane Wade (eight times each). Pau Gasol--who is posting the lowest scoring average of his career--is routinely called the "most skilled" power forward in the NBA, yet Bosh is every bit as skilled as Gasol and he has earned All-Star nods both as the number one option in Toronto and as part of an All-Star trio in Miami. At least one "stat guru" has already lost his mind complaining about Luol Deng's selection but the Chicago Bulls have the best record in the East (22-6), including an 18-3 mark when Deng starts. Deng's individual numbers are not gaudy but he contributes significantly at both ends of the court. Roy Hibbert was the obvious choice for backup center among the slim pickings at that position. Joe Johnson has quietly earned his sixth All-Star selection, one more than celebrated guards such as Pete Maravich or Reggie Miller achieved during their careers. Andre Iguodala is not having the best statistical season of his career but his all-around contributions have played a vitally important role in Philadelphia's success. Paul Pierce started the season slowly but he has played very well during Boston's recent surge; I would have taken Rajon Rondo but Pierce is not a terrible choice: based on his track record and how he is playing now he could very well be an All-NBA player once again by the end of the season. We know that Deron Williams is not one of Kenny Smith's proverbial "looters in a riot" because we have seen Williams put up big numbers for playoff teams in Utah; that said, the struggles of Williams' New Jersey Nets and Carmelo Anthony's New York Knicks show that the grass is not always greener on the other side for star players who talk their way out of town.

There would have had to be an investigation if LaMarcus Aldridge and Kevin Love did not make the All-Star team. Marc Gasol has played very well and has shown that his success is not dependent on playing alongside Zach Randolph; despite all of the talk about how skilled Marc's brother is, not enough people recognize that Marc may be the "most skilled" center in the league: Dwight Howard is clearly the best and most dominant center--by far--but Marc Gasol can shoot, post up, pass, rebound and defend. Steve Nash has much less talent around him than he did in previous years but his individual numbers are comparable to the ones he posted during his MVP seasons; he did not really deserve either of those MVPs--Shaquille O'Neal should have won in 2005 and Kobe Bryant should have won in 2006--but Nash does deserve to be a 2012 All-Star and his productivity at an advanced age is truly remarkable. Tony Parker has been the best player on a San Antonio Spurs team that has surprised most people (I picked them to finish third in the West). Russell Westbrook, despite all of the nitpicking about various aspects of his game, is one of the top 10 players in the league. Dirk Nowitzki nabbed the spot that I would have given to Danilo Gallinari. I am not sure about the timing of the voting so I don't know if Gallinari's injury--and likely unavailability for the All-Star Game--hurt his cause. I have mixed feelings about the Nowitzki selection; it is obvious that based on the first 20 or so games of the season Nowitzki should not have been chosen but it is also obvious that last June he outplayed Miami's All-Star trio when the stakes were the highest and it is a safe bet that by the end of the season Nowitzki will once again merit inclusion on the All-NBA team. Guys like Danilo Gallinari and Rudy Gay clearly are not better players than Dirk Nowitzki and if you really look at the numbers they have only marginally outperformed Nowitzki thus far so I can understand why the coaches gave Nowitzki the benefit of the doubt; this is a tough break for some West forwards who have yet to make the team but it should inspire those guys to play even better the rest of the way and then carry that momentum into the playoffs and next season so that the voters--fans and/or coaches--simply cannot leave them off of the team next time.

Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett--former champions and regular season MVPs who have earned 13 and 14 All-Star selections respectively--both failed to make the cut and neither is likely to be chosen even if it becomes necessary to replace players due to injury. They are both still solid contributors on good teams--Duncan's San Antonio Spurs currently have the second best record in the West, while Garnett's Boston Celtics have bounced back from a slow start to currently rank seventh in the East--but neither is performing at an All-Star level this season.

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posted by David Friedman @ 5:09 AM

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Monday, February 06, 2012

Which Players Should Be Selected as All-Star Reserves?

The starters for the 2012 NBA All-Star Game were officially announced last Thursday and the fans, as usual, did a solid job of picking worthy candidates. Now it is up to the league's coaches to fill out the All-Star rosters for each conference by selecting seven players: two forwards, two guards, one center and two wild cards (coaches are not allowed to vote for players from their own teams). Several pundits have weighed in with their choices, including TNT's expanded Thursday night crew and ESPN's Mark Stein. In the West, Kevin Love and LaMarcus Aldridge are consensus choices by Mark Stein, Shaquille O'Neal, Kenny Smith, Chris Webber, Charles Barkley and Ernie Johnson. It is obvious that both of those players are locks to make the team. Everyone except for Shaquille O'Neal tapped Russell Westbrook and everyone except for O'Neal and Smith chose Marc Gasol but no other player was picked by more than three of those six commentators. In the East, everyone picked Josh Smith and everyone picked Chris Bosh (O'Neal left Bosh off of his initial list but during last Thursday's TNT telecast he asked for a do-over and replaced Deron Williams with Bosh). Everyone except for Stein picked Joe Johnson. Roy Hibbert received the nod from everyone except for Barkley. Only Smith and Stein omitted Andre Iguodala. Several East players received consideration from only one or two commentators, indicating just how wide open the race is for those seven Eastern Conference All-Star roster spots.

Here are my choices for the reserve All-Star roster spots in each conference, with brief comments about each selection:

Western Conference

(F) Kevin Love: Love ranks first in the NBA in mpg (39.4), second in rpg (13.6) and fourth in ppg (25.0). With Dirk Nowitzki at least temporarily falling off of the map, Love is arguably the best power forward in the league right now.

(F) LaMarcus Aldridge: He should have made the All-Star team last year and he is posting career-high numbers across the board so far this season.

(G) Russell Westbrook: For some strange reason it has become fashionable to criticize Westbrook and nitpick his game but after a slow start this season he is back to performing at an All-NBA level.

(G) Steve Nash: His numbers this season are actually comparable to the numbers he posted in his first MVP campaign (2004-05) so it is funny to watch the shift in public opinion as Nash goes from being somewhat overrated at that time (Shaquille O'Neal deserved to win that MVP award) to being somewhat underrated now (only Stein and Webber picked Nash).

(C) Marc Gasol: The center position has become the NBA's vast wasteland. Years ago Shaquille O'Neal called himself the LCL (Last Center Left) and that is not far from the truth; Dwight Howard is the only current NBA center who would have been a perennial All-Star back in the day. That said, Marc Gasol has long since silenced any snide remarks about the supposedly lopsided trade involving him and his brother Pau; Marc is doing a solid job in the paint for the Memphis Grizzlies, picking up the frontcourt slack for the injured Zack Randolph.

(WC) Tony Parker: Parker is leading the San Antonio Spurs with 18.1 ppg and also averaging a career-high 7.7 apg. The Western Conference standings are bunched together and subject to change but at the moment Parker has carried the Spurs to the third spot despite the absence of Manu Ginobili and the decline of Tim Duncan.

(WC) Danilo Gallinari: Denver's deep and balanced attack prevents any one player on the roster from posting gaudy numbers but so far this season Gallinari is the leading scorer, third leading rebounder and third leading playmaker for a Nuggets team that has not missed a beat since getting rid of the disgruntled Carmelo Anthony last season.

It feels strange leaving Dirk Nowitzki off of the list in the wake of his marvelous performance during Dallas' 2011 championship run but Nowitzki's play so far this season has been embarrassingly bad for a player of his caliber; he has looked out of shape and disinterested and if the reserves are chosen purely based on merit then his string of 10 straight All-Star selections will end. Denver's Nene and Ty Lawson are also contenders for the wild card spot that I gave to Gallinari. Houston's Kyle Lowry has performed well but I am skeptical about making someone a first time All-Star based on 20 or so games played for a team that is right around .500; I know that Westbrook, Nash and Parker are legit All-Star caliber guards but I don't know if Lowry can maintain his current level of play.

Eastern Conference

(F) Chris Bosh: Now that Dwyane Wade is back in the lineup, the Miami Heat have reverted back to their old ways--mysteriously relegating Bosh to role player status as LeBron James and Dwyane Wade monopolize the ball--but Bosh shined in Wade's absence and is having an excellent season overall (19.7 ppg, 7.7 rpg, .508 FG%).

(F) Luol Deng: Deng is the second best player on the East's best team, providing consistent play at both ends of the court for the Chicago Bulls.

(G) Rajon Rondo: The Boston Celtics' Big Three are, as Mike Tyson might put it, "fading into Bolivion" (though Ray Allen is still shooting very well and Paul Pierce has recently shown signs of life) and Rondo has emerged as the team's best, most consistent player.

(G) Joe Johnson: Johnson is the leading scorer and second leading playmaker for the surprising Atlanta Hawks.

(C) Roy Hibbert: Al Horford is injured, Joakim Noah is not playing up to his usual standards and it is not yet clear if Greg Monroe is just a "looter in a riot" (Kenny Smith's picturesque way of describing a player who stacks up good numbers on a bad team) so Hibbert receives the nod at backup All-Star center almost by default; Hibbert is an improving young player who is having a solid season but, as mentioned above, the center position is just a giant wasteland now (other than Dwight Howard).

(WC) Deron Williams: The New Jersey Nets are horrible but Williams is still one of the most productive point guards in the NBA.

(WC) Andre Iguodala: Like the Nuggets, the Philadelphia 76ers have a deep team but no designated superstar. Iguodala has posted better individual numbers in previous seasons but his all-around play has been very valuable for Philadelphia this season as the 76ers raced to an early lead in the Atlantic Division.

Josh Smith, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen deserve consideration but I can't quite take the enigmatic Smith over the forwards who I selected nor can I justify putting more than one Celtic on the All-Star team when the Celtics are barely above .500; maybe the Celtics will rally and perhaps Allen and Pierce will then play their way on to the All-NBA Third Team by the end of the season but right now I would not pick either one, though I suspect that the coaches may give one or both of them the benefit of the doubt.

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posted by David Friedman @ 1:00 PM

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Tuesday, April 20, 2010

LeBron Takes Over Down the Stretch as Cavs Beat Bulls, 112-102

LeBron James authored another masterful playoff performance while leading the Cleveland Cavaliers to a 112-102 victory over the Chicago Bulls in game two of their first round playoff series. James scored 40 points--including 15 in the fourth quarter, 11 of which came in a stunning outburst that took less than three minutes--grabbed eight rebounds, dished off eight assists, blocked two shots and delivered a thunderous dunk that is sure to be replayed countless times. Antawn Jamison chipped in 14 points, four rebounds and three assists, while Mo Williams struggled from the field (2-8) but made all eight of his free throws to finish with 12 points plus six assists and no turnovers. Jamario Moon provided a huge boost off of the bench with 12 points on 4-5 shooting (all of his shots came from behind the three point line), three rebounds and two blocked shots. Shaquille O'Neal produced eight points and seven rebounds in just 15 minutes but he also had four turnovers and did not return to action after going to the bench with his fourth foul at the 7:33 mark of the third quarter; the Cavs went to "The Big Bill Cartwright" early in the game with mixed results: sometimes he scored or drew fouls but overall he seemed to be moving a bit slower than he did in game one. After the game, Cleveland Coach Mike Brown said that he originally had planned to put O'Neal back in the game in the fourth quarter but then he decided that he liked what he saw with the group that was on the court so he elected to keep them in the game. Coach Brown has repeatedly noted that he has slotted O'Neal for 28-32 minutes per game but that matchups, foul trouble and other factors can cause him to alter that plan. O'Neal's importance to the Cavs--much like Cartwright's importance to the Bulls--will not ultimately be measured in minutes, points or rebounds but rather in overall impact: when O'Neal is in the game he must either command double teams or else score in the post and he must be a factor defensively in the paint. So far in the first two playoff games O'Neal has done those things. If/when O'Neal faces Dwight Howard, O'Neal does not have to match Howard stat for stat but he simply has to reduce Howard's effectiveness and thus minimize the need to double team Howard, just as Cartwright used his savvy to make things tough for New York's Patrick Ewing back in the day.

The Bulls won the rebounding battle 37-36, outscored the Cavs decisively in the paint (56-38) and had three players score at least 20 points: Joakim Noah tallied a playoff career-high 25 points and had a game-high 13 rebounds, Derrick Rose notched 23 points and eight assists and Luol Deng recorded 20 points, six rebounds and five assists. The Bulls also got solid production off of the bench from Ronald "Flip" Murray (14 points in 29 minutes). Why did the Bulls lose? They shot just .441 (41-93) from the field and, even more importantly, they had no answer for James down the stretch. Regarding the latter, the first thing they might try is closing their collective mouths: anyone watching the game could see that James said something in the direction of the Bulls' bench after a few of his late game shots but what was not apparent if you did not have a courtside seat is that James had not initiated the conversation--he was in fact responding to repeated Chicago taunts. After the game, James explained, "They were telling me I can't make jump shots. They asked me to shoot a jumper so I did that. Over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over again." At one time, it was indeed true that James could not consistently make jump shots and that skill set weakness is one reason that James' Cavs fell short in playoff battles versus elite teams in the 2007 NBA Finals (San Antonio Spurs) and the 2008 Eastern Conference semifinals (Boston Celtics)--but, as I noted in my recent article about the 2010 NBA awards, from the 2009 season to the 2010 season James improved his accuracy in six of the eight midrange shooting areas that are tracked by NBA/com/Hotspots. After the game, James said that he has worked very hard to improve his shooting because "if I become better as an individual then our team automatically becomes better."

James shot 16-23 (.696) from the field (including 2-4 on three pointers) and made all six of his free throws; James headlined a strong shooting performance by the Cavs from all three ranges: they shot 40-71 from the field (.563, the team's best mark in a playoff game since May 17, 1992), 10-20 from three point range and 16-17 (.941) from the free throw line (remarkably, the teams combined to make their first 21 free throws and shot 38-41 overall). That efficiency was vitally important for the Cavs in this game, because the Bulls fired up 22 more field goal attempts than the Cavs, a disparity largely created by Chicago's advantages in two categories, offensive rebounding (13-5) and turnovers (Cleveland committed 11 turnovers, which is not an exorbitant number but not good enough on a night when Chicago had only four).

The Bulls played with tremendous energy right from the start, getting two offensive rebounds in the game's first 2:36 and building a 10-6 lead--a marked contrast from game one, when the Bulls trailed for virtually the entire contest. The Cavs quickly bounced back to go ahead 19-14 and Chicago Coach Vinny Del Negro inserted rookie James Johnson into the lineup to play some bump and run-style defense against LeBron James, who decided to use Johnson's activity and enthusiasm against him, resulting in a tremendous dunk at the :59 mark of the first quarter: "I felt that I could just slow down and counter his energy by reading the defense and getting around him and once I did that I was in attack mode to the rim." Someone later asked James what goes through his mind during such plays and James replied, "I'm gifted; I thank the man above for giving me some God-gifted abilities and leaping ability is one of them. I just try to take full advantage of it. So, in that situation, when I turn the corner and I see the rim, it doesn't matter if there's a guy in front of me or a guy behind me, I'm going to attack the rim at it's highest level. And that's what I did tonight. I knew I got around him and I didn't believe he was going to jump. But once I saw him out of the corner of my eye, I decided to jump just a little higher.'' The way that James finished the play is a perfect illustration of why I called James a stylistic heir to Julius Erving: "Erving soared high above the hoop and delivered an assortment of one handed jams with his arm fully extended, buggywhipping the ball over hapless defenders, much like James does now. The full extension of Erving's arm--made possible by the fact that his hands are so huge that he palmed the ball effortlessly--during his driving dunks is quite distinctive but James does something very similar." James' jam over Johnson looks much like a vintage Erving dunk.

It is difficult to fully convey what it feels like to watch live and in person when someone uncoils such an explosive and powerful move--you can almost sense more than 20,000 people simultaneously getting goosebumps and gasping in shock a millisecond before they begin roaring in thunderous appreciation. Fans, media members and players alike look around in shock, joy and disbelief and a palpable energy buzzes through the arena.

The Cavs rode that energy wave to push their advantage to 28-18 but the Bulls proved to be remarkably poised and focused, scoring on a possession that included three offensive rebounds and then capitalizing on a James turnover to net a coast to coast drive by Murray right before the quarter ended. Murray's bucket trimmed Cleveland's lead to 28-22.

Chicago did not commit a single turnover in the second quarter and outscored Cleveland 28-24 to cut the Cavs' advantage to just two points at halftime. It seemed natural to expect that the more talented and deeper Cavs would turn it on at some point and pull away like they did in game one but instead the Bulls continued their scrappy play in the third quarter and knotted the score at 77 heading into the final 12 minutes. With 4:45 remaining in the fourth quarter, the Cavs only led 96-93 and the Bulls seemingly had a golden opportunity to steal a road game and grab homecourt advantage--but then James took over, hitting a long three pointer over Noah, connecting on two free throws, spinning in a tough left handed layup and then burying two long two point jumpers to put Cleveland up 107-98 at the 1:36 mark. Two Deng free throws cut the margin to seven but then Moon delivered the fatal blow, a three point shot that killed any chance of a Chicago comeback.

The postgame press conferences focused on the way that James took over the game at the end. Cleveland Coach Mike Brown did not even try to pretend that the Cavs did anything fancy when the game was on the line: "The fun and exciting thing about it was that in the playoffs everybody knows what play is coming. A lot of times, it's about can you stop the players on the other team. We didn't do anything tricky. We just came down and threw him the ball and he made plays in crunch minutes."

Jamison almost sounded like an awestruck fan as he described his perspective on James' late game scoring binge: "It's a sight to see. To see how close the game was and for him to take over, you just have to realize that you are witnessing history. To be able to take over a game like that and put your team on top, there are only a certain amount of guys who can do that."

Del Negro admitted that there are no easy answers to the question of how to defend James: "He's so effective with his vision and the way they shoot the ball. If you come with the double too quick, they spread you out. You have to pick your spots. We have to do a good job on everybody. LeBron, I thought, took the game over like stars do in the league. We single covered him and tried to force him baseline a little bit. Then we came with the double team a couple times and they moved the ball to the weak side."

Another topic of discussion after the game was Moon's timely contributions in a reserve role after logging just seven minutes in game one. Coach Brown said, "I said it earlier when I first came out here (to talk to the media before the game), I said it all year, I said it to our guys: everybody's got to stay ready. At any given time, somebody's number can be called and they may contribute significant minutes to us."

Coach Brown's biggest concern is that the Cavs decisively "did not win the possession game," allowing the Bulls to launch far more field goal attempts than the Cavs did. "We have to clean that up," he declared, candidly admitting that the Cavs threw many "sloppy passes" that did not become turnovers only because the Bulls merely deflected them instead of actually stealing the ball. He also said that the Cavs will make some adjustments to try to prevent the Bulls from having a points in the paint advantage, a multifaceted issue that includes post defense, the transition game and screen/roll defense.

*****************************
Notes From Courtside:

Rose scored 28 points in game one on 28 field goal attempts and he had 23 points in game two on 24 field goal attempts; in contrast, James scored 24 points in game one on 19 field goal attempts and he had 40 points in game two on just 23 field goal attempts. A big part of the story of this series so far is that Cleveland's star player has been much more efficient offensively than Chicago's star player has been. This is not just a reflection of the fact that James is a better and more complete player than Rose but also that Cleveland's team defense is better than Chicago's: the Cavs are guarding Rose without fouling and without giving up an undue number of layups/points in the paint, while James has had his way with the Bulls so far.

During his pregame standup, I asked Coach Brown, "Doug Collins often talks about the value of holding the opposing team's star to a point per shot or less. In the first game, Derrick Rose scored 28 points but it took him 28 shots. What guideline do you have as a defensive-minded coach in terms of a ratio of points per shot attempt when you are looking at trying to hold down the other team's star player when you know that in the playoffs he is going to take a lot of shots?"

Coach Brown replied, "I've never really had a guideline. I look at if we are playing good team basketball and winning the game then it doesn't really matter to me if one guy is taking a ton of shots. Now, if one guy is taking a ton of shots and has a chance to beat you by himself or beat you with those shots then I am not necessarily worried about how many points per shot they're getting but now it's a matter of let's try to get the ball out of his hands and make somebody else beat us."

Later, I asked Coach Brown, "Do you expect Derrick Rose to take a similar number of shot attempts in this game or do you think that the Bulls will make an adjustment to be more balanced? What is your expectation?"

Coach Brown answered, "I really don't have any expectation. I'm not sure if he will or if he won't. It will just be a matter of how he feels, I guess. You'd have to ask (him)--he knows better than I do."

I followed up by asking, "From a game planning standpoint I was wondering what you are thinking."

Coach Brown still kept his cards close to the vest: "We've just got to keep making him work for his shots."

Coach Brown always emphasizes the importance of not giving up middle penetration and shots in the paint and his game plan for this series in particular seems to involve letting Rose and other non-jump shooting threats shoot contested two point jumpers while trying to wall off the paint but also not giving up open three point shots to credible three point shooters. Coach Brown does not want to provide any potential bulletin board material but I suspect that he is pleased that Chicago's point guard is taking the bulk of his team's shots without living in the paint or on the free throw line; Rose has had some success driving to the hoop but that success has usually come on contested shots with a high degree of difficulty and it simply is not possible to completely keep Rose out of the paint.

***

I asked Coach Del Negro a couple questions during his pregame standup:

Friedman: "Would you prefer for Derrick Rose to not have quite as many shot attempts, to have a little more balance in the offense?"

Del Negro: "It's easy to say that but if he went, like 26 for 28, everyone would say that he should have taken 35 shots because he was so hot. You know what I mean? It's ridiculous. So, we need him to score but there has to be a good balance. He can't get to the (free throw) line twice. He needs to start getting to the line more but if he takes 28 shots I have to believe he was fouled more than once, so we have to pay attention to that a little bit. His assists and his floor game and all of that, his defense and everything go into it (evaluating how well he played) but the other night I thought that maybe he forced a couple shots of the 28 but I thought that (mostly) they were good shots. He got his floater going, he didn't settle, he was aggressive and we need him to play well--obviously--like he has all year. When he does get in the lane, make plays in terms of finding guys and then guys have to step in and make shots to take some pressure off of him as well. There is a difference between taking 28 shots that are forced and out of character and just taking 28 shots that are in the flow of what he's doing."

Friedman: "You mentioned that other guys have to step up and make shots. Did you feel like some guys were hesitant, maybe they had open shots but did not take them?"

Del Negro: "I don't think anybody was hesitant. You can't rely on the jump shot all the time. You have to realize when you are not knocking shots down how you can be effective, taking things off the dribble, getting to the basket, getting your rhythm at the free throw line and putting some pressure on people. If you are struggling to shoot the basketball and you keep on shooting jump shots then you take some pressure off of the defense and bail them out. It makes the game easier for them. You want to put pressure on people all the time."

***

The Cavs have won their last seven first round playoff games by at least 10 points.

The Cavs are 24-7 in home playoff games since 2006.

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posted by David Friedman @ 9:03 AM

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Monday, December 31, 2007

Scottie Pippen is No Diplomat, but He Knows Basketball

Scottie Pippen would like to coach the Chicago Bulls, the team that he helped lead to six NBA titles, and he does not understand "the key to the good 'ol boy system" that he believes is preventing him from getting a coaching job: "What's my disadvantage? No NBA coaching experience? Skiles' record with the Bulls wasn't that great. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to do what you've done your whole life. I've played basketball, run teams and won. They didn't put me at point guard because I could dribble good. They put me there because I could run a team. I wasn't the best dribbler, the best shooter. I wasn't a point guard. But I knew how to run a team."

Pippen told the Chicago Tribune's Sam Smith, "What experience do you need? You have assistants who have been there. If I made a mistake, I wouldn't be the first coach to make a mistake. I'd love the opportunity to be part of the organization now that Skiles is gone. I've won championships with this organization and been in the competition when everything was on the line. I was a coach on the floor. Why isn't that experience?"

Pippen also offered some blunt assessments of the skills and limitations of some of the current Bulls' players:

***Tyrus Thomas "dribbles better with his left hand than his right. He must have broken his arm when he was a kid. He shouldn't be dribbling. He should be a fetcher. Like Ben Wallace, (Joakim) Noah, go get the ball."

***Ben Wallace "doesn't know the game like Dennis Rodman did. Dennis knew how and why he got rebounds. So you keep on him (Wallace) or he doesn't play."

***Ben Gordon "(is) out there shooting for a contract...If there's two, three guys running at him, he still wants to make a shot. Those shots are out of position, your teammates don't expect them, you are not in position to rebound and get back. Taking bad shots is a sign of a lack of respect for your teammates. You think I'm going to run back if I know B.J. Armstrong is jacking it up? My shot is just as good as his. That's what players think."

***Kirk Hinrich "(is) guarding Kobe, Tracy McGrady, the best players. He's not that talented. Let him run the offense. But you can't have midgets running your backcourt. Little guards always put you in a vulnerable position. You've got to send help. It puts too much pressure on the defense."

***Luol Deng "(is) solid. But he doesn't have enough speed. He plays more upright, so it's tough for him to go out and guard smaller guys. I think Deng is on the verge of being a star. But all that money talk added pressure. Now he's trying to show 28, 29 teams what he's about instead of going out and playing."

***Andres Nocioni "(is) turning into Rasheed Wallace with the kinds of things he does on floor. It makes the officials turn on the whole team. And you stop getting calls."

Obviously, diplomacy is not Scottie Pippen's strong suit. I stood right next to him during the 2007 All-Star Weekend when he told a group of reporters, "If you ask people who understand the game, the GMs and the coaches, they'd rather have a Scottie than a Michael." As I explained, "there is in fact some truth to what he said--not so much that GMs would prefer Scottie to Michael but that they would prefer the way that Scottie played. Jordan was a more naturally gifted scorer but as a rebounder, playmaker and defender Pippen did not have to take a back seat to any midsized player--even MJ--and he consistently played, as Larry Brown would say, 'the right way,' supporting his teammates and trying to get them involved. He never felt the temptation that MJ often did to try to simply shoot his team out of trouble single-handedly."

Someone who hires Scottie Pippen to be a head coach may cringe once in a while at Pippen's blunt, brutally honest way of expressing himself--but isn't that a small price to pay in exchange for the wealth of knowledge and experience that Pippen has?

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posted by David Friedman @ 6:15 PM

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Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Lakers Kick off Eastern Road Trip With 103-91 Win in Chicago

Kobe Bryant is still laboring as a result of the groin injury that he suffered during Friday's loss to Golden State but with more than a little help from his friends the Lakers defeated the Bulls 103-91 in Chicago. Sasha Vujacic led six double figure scorers for the Lakers with 19 points, shooting 6-10 from the field. Bryant had 18 points on 7-19 shooting. He started out 3-10 in the first half, then made his first four shots in the third quarter before cooling off again. Bryant also had six rebounds, two assists, three steals and one blocked shot; his +13 plus/minus rating was the third best on the team, trailing the +18 efforts of both Lamar Odom and Andrew Bynum (Vujacic's plus/minus rating was +6). Odom had 17 points and a game-high 16 rebounds, including 10 boards in the first half, while Bynum overcame a slow start offensively to finish with 12 points, 10 rebounds and four blocked shots. Luol Deng led Chicago with a game-high 26 points. The Bulls outshot the Lakers .481 to .430 but committed more turnovers (18-13) and grabbed fewer rebounds (52-41). The Lakers also went to the free throw line more often (28-17) and converted those opportunities at a greater rate (.821-.706).

The Chicago announcers claimed that the Bulls played with energy but if that is the case then I'd hate to see what this team looks like when it does not play with energy; the rebounding, turnovers and general lack of aggressiveness (as suggested by the paucity of free throw attempts) all speak to mental and physical lethargy. Ben Wallace did not have a single rebound in the first half and he ended up with two points, five rebounds, four assists and two blocked shots. Ben Gordon scored eight points on 3-9 shooting. Although the game was close most of the way, I doubt that any seasoned NBA viewer who watched this contest really believed that the Bulls were going to win; the Bulls' play just lacked direction, purpose--"oomph," for lack of a better term. Consider this sequence from a fast break opportunity in the second quarter: forward Tyrus Thomas had the ball at midcourt on the right wing, with point guard Chris Duhon in the middle and forward Andres Nocioni on the left wing. The correct--and obvious--play is to pass the ball to Duhon, who should dribble to the foul line, read the defense and either shoot a pullup jumper, pass to one of the wings or go all the way to the hoop if there is an opening. Instead, Thomas tried an impossible crosscourt bounce pass to Nocioni that went sailing out of bounds. If I ever put together a DVD titled "How Not to Play Fundamentally Correct Basketball," that footage will be the first exhibit. Later in the game, the Bulls also showed that they could not inbound the ball against a basic press without committing a turnover. What has happened to this team in the past six months is just bizarre, because during last year's playoffs the Bulls swept the defending champion Heat and even battled the Pistons for a minute before being eliminated. I keep waiting for the light to come on in Chicago but maybe it never is going to happen for the Bulls this year.

The news is much more pleasant for the Lakers. Bryant's nagging injury is a bit of a concern but assuming that he will heal up sooner rather than later the forecast for this team looks good. Odom is playing solid basketball, Bynum's game has vastly improved in all areas and the bench is a positive factor on most nights (not necessarily the same guys each time, but the group as a whole).

I've noticed one hitch in Bryant's game this season, something that predates his injury; previously, whenever he picked up his dribble and pump faked most defenders either fouled him or got off balance enough that he could attempt a shot. Now, defenders are staying on the ground, leaving Bryant nowhere to go since he has already used up his dribble; that happened to Bryant a few times against Chicago. He is an intelligent player, so it will be interesting to see how he adjusts to this.

The Lakers led 49-45 at halftime. Bryant and Vujacic each had 10 points. NBA TV's Frank Isola commented, "Kobe is not 100% yet with that groin injury. He's playing--and I think that a lot of other guys would take a week off--but this is Kobe Bryant, who loves to be out there." Despite Bryant's brief scoring burst early in the third quarter, the Bulls made a little run to tie the score at 58 before a Bryant turnaround jumper at the 7:26 mark put the Lakers up, 60-58. Those would be the last points that Bryant scored (he sat out the start of the fourth quarter, like he does in most games) but he found other ways to contribute: he got all three of his steals in the fourth quarter and the Lakers scored on the ensuing possession each time, including one sequence when Bryant stole the ball from Kirk Hinrich and flipped an underhanded outlet pass to Odom, who streaked ahead of the pack for a fast break dunk. The Lakers also used Bryant as a screener in the halfcourt offense, something that they did in the Warriors game as well. One time, Bryant's screen freed up Jordan Farmar, a defender slid over and Farmar lobbed an alley oop to Bynum for a dunk; another time, Farmar got loose and made a three pointer. Using a great scorer like Bryant as a screener is a good tactic because the defense does not dare leave him unattended.

After the game, Isola declared, "People talk about leading by example. That fact that Kobe Bryant--who I think is the elite player in the league--is willing to go out there when he is not 100% sends the right kind of message to his entire team...The bottom line is when they throw the ball up he is ready to play, he is always ready to compete and I think his teammates feed off of that." Bryant wants his teammates to care as much and work as hard as he does. Just like he did last summer with Team USA, Bryant sets the example in practice and during games and the rest of his team is following suit.

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posted by David Friedman @ 4:59 AM

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Friday, November 16, 2007

Great Players Can Never Play in Fear of Turnovers

The Phoenix Suns beat the Chicago Bulls 112-102 in fairly routine fashion: they pushed the ball up the court, they made a lot of three pointers (10), they built a big lead (15 points), they squandered the entire lead in the second half and then they put the Bulls away with a barrage of jumpers and backdoor cuts. The Suns are a hard team to handle in the regular season, particularly in Phoenix; the Bulls outrebounded them by seven and still lost by 10 points. The eternal question is can the Suns beat the Spurs in a seven game series and the answer so far has been, "No." Leandro Barbosa had a game-high 25 points, while Grant Hill scored a season-high 24 points and Shawn Marion had 21 points and nine rebounds. Steve Nash shot just 3-11 from the field but finished with 10 points, 15 assists and four steals. Ben Gordon led Chicago with 24 points.

Chicago is a very puzzling team this year because the Bulls play well in stretches and then go through periods in which they look completely clueless. Anyone who thinks that Kobe Bryant could not help this team is delusional--the Bulls go through major scoring droughts in nearly every game and he would be the perfect antidote to that, not to mention the fact that his defense would also make the Bulls much better. The problem for the Bulls now is that the Lakers' bench has played very well in the early part of the season, so Bryant is not likely to accept a trade to a team that plays as lethargically as Chicago does. I still think that there is too much talent on this Bulls team to play like this all season but I am less convinced of that now than I was a week ago. Ben Wallace has clearly aged, while Luol Deng and Ben Gordon may be preoccupied with their contract situations.

This game had a real air of inevitability about it: the Suns' running game wears down most teams during the regular season and the Bulls hardly seem like a mentally strong enough group to overcome that kind of pressure right now. The most interesting thing about this contest is something that TNT's Doug Collins said late in the game after Nash threw the ball away. Referring to Nash and New Jersey's Jason Kidd, Collins declared, "There are two point guards in the league who never fear a turnover...They're going to thread the needle and trust their teammates. They never fear the consequences of a mistake, especially under pressure." This dovetails with my view that it is not a big deal if a great player--particularly one who handles the ball a lot--averages three or four turnovers a game. Obviously, careless turnovers should be minimized and throwing the ball away in a crucial late game situation is bad but the point is that players who are responsible for creating a sizable portion of their team's offense will inevitably have a few turnovers. What you don't want is to have a player who has few ballhandling duties but commits several turnovers a game; if one player handles the ball most of the time and commits three to four turnovers a game it is likely that the rest of the team will commit very few turnovers, so the team total will fall within acceptable levels. Does anyone think that Kidd or Nash hurt their teams by committing too many turnovers? There may be one or two games a year in which they have eight or 10 turnovers--but those games are more than offset by their positive contributions in most other games.

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posted by David Friedman @ 6:58 AM

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