Raptors Mount Late Comeback, Tie Series With Cavaliers 2-2
The Cleveland Cavaliers built a nine point second quarter lead and were ahead 84-76 with 4:30 remaining in the fourth quarter before the Toronto Raptors rallied to win 93-89 and tie this first round series 2-2. The Raptors shot just 31-97 (.320) from the field but the Cavaliers shot almost as poorly (32-87, .368) while getting outrebounded 59-56 and losing the turnover battle 17-11. The Raptors compensated for their abysmal three point field goal shooting (4-30, .133) by outscoring the Cavaliers 50-38 in the paint while also topping the Cavaliers in second chance points 19-7 and fast break points 15-10.
Scottie Barnes and Brandon Ingram each scored a game-high 23 points to lead the Raptors, while R.J. Barrett added 18 points and Collin Murray-Boyles contributed 15 points plus a team-high 10 rebounds off of the bench. Barnes--who has been the best player in the series (series-high 25.8 ppg, series-high 7.3 apg, 4.8 rpg, 1.3 bpg, 1.0 spg, .523 FG%)--had an excellent floor game with nine rebounds, six assists, three blocked shots, and one steal.
Donovan Mitchell paced the Cavaliers with 20 points, but he shot 6-24 from the field. James Harden had 19 points and a team-high eight assists, but he had a game-high seven turnovers, three more than any other player.
The Raptors deserve full credit for playing hard and figuring out how to
win a must-win game, but the big picture focus should be on the
Cavaliers, who have been widely touted as a championship contender since acquiring Harden.
The first half featured some mind-numbingly bad, unwatchable basketball as Toronto scored 38 points on 15-54 (.278) field goal shooting while Cleveland managed only 36 points on 15-45 (.333) field goal shooting. If you enjoy watching high volume, low accuracy three point shooting then the first half was heaven for you as the teams combined to shoot 7-39 (.179) from beyond the arc. ESPN's Ernie Johnson referenced the old movie "The Gang That Couldn't Shoot Straight" to open the halftime show. There is no truth to the rumor that during halftime the NBA's Board of Governors and the league's broadcast partners tried to enact a rules change stipulating that not only would the second half not be played but that both teams would be summarily eliminated from the playoffs.
I love good defense, but this game was more about teams being unable to make three pointers and being unwilling to try two pointers then it was about good defense.
During the third quarter, the teams stumbled to a 22-22 tie while combining to shoot 1-18 (.056) from three point range, which meant that the Raptors clung to a 60-58 lead heading into a fourth quarter that would determine whether the Raptors would tie the series 2-2 or fall into a 3-1 hole that is usually fatal. After Mitchell hit two free throws at the 4:55 mark, the Cavaliers led 84-76 as this rock fight disguised as a basketball game lurched toward its conclusion, but the Raptors closed the game with a 17-5 run to stay alive as the series shifts back to Cleveland for game five on Wednesday.
Shockingly, both teams shot well in the final stanza, with Toronto shooting 11-22 (.500) from the field and Cleveland nearly matching that with 10-21 (.476) field goal shooting. What stood out and made the difference is that Harden and Mitchell combined to dominate the ball while shooting terribly. Mitchell scored 12 points but shot just 3-9 from the field, including an ill-advised off balance missed three pointer with 10 seconds remaining and the Raptors leading 90-87; the Cavaliers had enough time to quickly score a two pointer and then foul to get the ball back. The scariest thing for the Cavaliers is that "Playoff Harden" mode seemed to be activated in this game: he shot 1-4 from the field in the fourth quarter with the game on the line, and he tallied yet another "Harden" in a playoff game by having more turnovers (seven) than field goals made (six). What is most disturbing for the Cavaliers is not only the careless nature of many of Harden's turnovers but the lackadaisical way that he failed to get back on defense after committing those turnovers. In a low scoring game, such plays are huge.
Plus/minus can be noisy in small sample sizes, and this game is a great example of such noise. If you watched the whole game with understanding, then you noticed that Harden and Mitchell co-authored the defeat due to Harden's reckless ballhandling and terrible transition defense combined with Mitchell's poor shooting and questionable shot selection. Mitchell's -8 plus/minus number reflects how he played, but Harden's +1 plus/minus number is surprising, so I dug into that to try to figure out what happened. Harden played 7:53 in the third quarter, and he somehow had a +10 plus/minus number as the teams battled to a 22-22 tie, which means his plus/minus number for the rest of the game was -9. Harden played all 12 minutes in the fourth quarter, posting a -2 plus/minus number.
Harden's overall series numbers are solid (21.8 ppg, 6.5 apg, 3.3 rpg, .475 FG%) except for his alarming 24 turnovers (6.0 tpg), 10 more than any other player on either team. Harden has posted a "Harden" in each of the last two playoff games in this series (he had a game-high eight turnovers and five field goals made in Cleveland's 126-104 game three loss). He has logged a "Harden" four times in his last 13 playoff games, and that does not include hiswn 2-8 field goal shooting with two turnovers as the Denver Nuggets routed his L.A. Clippers 120-101 in game seven last year.
The Cavaliers are purported to be a championship contender this season, while the young Raptors are rising but are not a championship contender. The Cavaliers should win the next two games to close out the series in six games (which was my prediction in my playoff preview), but when the supposedly superior team gives away a winnable game and drags out a series anything can happen--an injury, a suspension, a fluky shot. The Cavaliers will likely not get the full "Playoff Harden" experience until the second round, but games three and four of this series provided a preview of what that will look like.
Labels: Brandon Ingram, Cleveland Cavaliers, Donovan Mitchell, James Harden, Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors
posted by David Friedman @ 12:02 PM
What Have We Learned After the First Two Games of the Philadelphia-Toronto Series?
The Philadelphia 76ers routed the Toronto Raptors in each of the first two games of their playoff series, winning 131-111 in game one and then winning 112-97 in game two. I picked Toronto to beat Philadelphia in six games, but it is obvious now that the Raptors face an uphill climb just to get back in the series; some commentators say that the home team winning the first two games is "just holding serve and the series does not begin until the road team wins a game," but the reality is that a team that wins the first two games of an NBA playoff series wins the series 92.4% of the time: history shows that to have a realistic chance to win a series a team must at least split the first two games. Playoff history in general and the specific way that the matchups have played out so far in this series indicate that the Raptors are in trouble.
All of that being said, the 2019 Toronto Raptors are one of the few teams to come back from a 2-0 deficit, beating the Milwaukee Bucks in the Eastern Conference Finals en route to winning the championship; that victory looks even more impressive in retrospect, because the Bucks won the NBA title just two years later. The 2022 Raptors have the same coach (Nick Nurse) and three of the same rotation players (Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby) as the 2019 Raptors--but, of course, the absence of Kawhi Leonard in 2022 is a big difference. When healthy, Leonard is the "dynasty killer." Also, the 2022 Raptors are currently without the services of Scottie Barnes, one of the leading Rookie of the Year candidates and perhaps the second best all-around player on the team.
Why are the 76ers up 2-0, and what--if anything--can the Raptors do to get back in the series?
1) The most valuable player in the series thus far has been Joel Embiid. This is not just about the numbers, which are actually subpar by his lofty standards (25.0 ppg, 13.0 rpg, 2.0 apg, .5 bpg, .452 FG%), but about his impact at both ends of the court: on offense, he is commanding double teams that are creating wide open shots for his teammates (the 76ers are shooting .516 from the field, including .484 from three point range), and on defense he is shutting down the paint, forcing the Raptors to rely on jump shots (the Raptors are shooting .456 from the field, including .371 from three point range). During the regular season, the Raptors went 3-1 versus Philadelphia--including 2-1 when Embiid played--but in the first two games of this series the Raptors fouled too much, rotated poorly to shooters, and thus they got the worst of both worlds: Embiid put the Raptors in foul trouble while scoring from the free throw line, and Embiid's teammates scored very efficiently (see below).
In the opening moments of game two, the Raptors played very aggressively and very physically, challenging Embiid at both ends of the court and taking a quick 11-2 lead, but then Embiid began drawing fouls, the Raptors stopped making shots, and the 76ers took control.
The Raptors must put more pressure on the 76ers' ballhandlers to make it difficult to feed Embiid, they must do everything possible to deny Embiid opportunities to catch the ball in the paint, and they must defend the paint without fouling but also without giving up so many wide open shots. These are not easy things to do, but they are things that we have seen the Raptors do this season.
Embiid's conditioning and health are better now than at any other time during his playoff career, but a team must win 16 playoff games to be crowned champion. Can Embiid stay healthy and not wear down as the playoffs progress? The version of Embiid we saw in games one and two has a combination of size, strength, and skill not seen in the NBA since prime Shaquille O'Neal, but O'Neal established his legacy by winning four championships and not just by winning two first round home games.
2) Tyrese Maxey has been the leading scorer in the series (30.5 ppg on .688 field goal shooting). He has benefited from all of the defensive attention attracted by Embiid--which is called "gravity" when Stephen Curry is involved--but he has also demonstrated the ability to create his own shot, particularly in open court situations (and even in those situations he benefits from Embiid, because Embiid's defensive impact has fueled the 76ers' fast break).
3) Tobias Harris seemed to suffer the most after James Harden's arrival in Philadelphia, but he has averaged 23.0 ppg on .640 field goal shooting in the first two games of this series. Harris scored at least 20 points in just four of his last 28 regular season games before scoring 26 and 20 versus Toronto.
4) James Harden, rumored to be on the verge of being given a long-term contract valued at more than $200 million, has been the 76ers' fourth leading scorer in this series (18.0 ppg) while shooting .346 from the field. He is leading the team in assists (10.0 apg), steals (2.0 spg), and turnovers (3.0 tpg). Harden will never be the first option on a championship team, and it is becoming increasingly apparent that he is unlikely to ever be the second option on a championship team--but, perhaps he can be the third or fourth option on a championship team, with Embiid carrying most of the weight, one or two accurate shooters benefiting from the double teams Embiid draws, and Harden distributing the ball while reducing his shot attempts (and thus minimizing the damage caused by his perennially poor playoff shooting). I still can't picture the 76ers beating Miami, Boston, or Milwaukee (in whatever order you prefer to rank those three teams) in a seven game playoff series, but the 76ers seem to have enough to get by Toronto with Harden serving as the fourth option. How many championships would Harden have now if he had been willing to remain the third option behind Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook?
5) During the regular season, Toronto ranked seventh in points allowed (107.1 ppg) and eighth in rebounding (45.3 rpg) but in this series the Raptors are allowing 121.5 ppg while being outrebounded 40.0 rpg to 35.5 rpg. Barnes grabbed 10 rebounds in game one but was not able to play in game two, and no other Raptor is averaging more than 6.5 rpg in the series. These defensive and rebounding problems are primarily being caused by Embiid's presence, and it is not clear if the Raptors have answers to these challenges, particularly if Barnes remains unavailable.
6) Five Toronto players averaged at least 15.3 ppg during the regular season, but Barnes is out of action and Gary Trent Jr.--who has been impaired by a non-COVID-19 illness--is averaging just 4.5 ppg versus the 76ers.
7) Matisse Thybulle--who started 50 games for the 76ers during the regular season--has played less than 15 mpg during this series, and he will not be available in any games played in Toronto due to his COVID-19 vaccination status. At this point, it does not appear that his absence will have a major impact on this series, but it will change/shorten Philadelphia's rotation, which could matter if foul trouble and/or injuries take place during games three and four (or game six, if game six becomes necessary).
The top two priorities for Toronto are (1) Put more pressure on Embiid without giving up so many open shots to Maxey and Harris, and (2) either get more of a scoring contribution from Trent Jr. or else collectively get more scoring from the rest of the team.
The 76ers are obviously in command right now, but if the Raptors play up to their capabilities and win both home games then the 76ers will be under tremendous pressure in game five at Philadelphia. Embiid has yet to prove that he can sustain a high level of play during an extended playoff run, Harden is one of the worst playoff chokers of all-time, and Doc Rivers has coached multiple teams that blew large leads in playoff series, so if this series reaches 2-2 then there will be a lot for the 76ers and their fans to be concerned about.
Labels: Fred VanVleet, James Harden, Joel Embiid, Pascal Siakam, Philadelphia 76ers, Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors, Tyrese Maxey
posted by David Friedman @ 7:01 PM
