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Tuesday, May 24, 2022

Celtics Freeze Heat, Tie Eastern Conference Finals at 2-2

Even a cursory examination of the 2022 Eastern Conference Finals should be enough to put to rest the notion that momentum exists in an NBA playoff series. In every game in this series, at least one team has had a lead of at least 20 points. In game one, Miami overcame a 13 point deficit to lead by 20 points before winning, 118-107. In game two, Boston won, 127-102. In game three, Miami jumped out to a 46-20 lead before winning 109-103. In game four on Monday night, the Celtics started the game with an 18-1 run, and built a 32 point lead en route to a wire to wire 102-82 victory. The Heat's one point in the game's first eight minutes is the lowest point total in that time span in a playoff game in the past 25 years. 

Jayson Tatum led the Celtics with a game-high 31 points. He also had eight rebounds, five assists, two blocked shots, and a game-best +37 plus/minus number. Tatum scored 24 points in the first half. Payton Pritchard was the unlikely second leading scorer for the Celtics with 14 points, followed closely by Derrick White (who scored 13 points while starting in place of the injured Marcus Smart), Jaylen Brown (12 points on 5-20 field goal shooting), and Robert Williams III (12 points plus nine rebounds and two blocked shots). Al Horford only scored five points, but he had a game-high 13 rebounds, and his plus/minus number (+33) was second only to Tatum's. Every Boston starter grabbed at least seven rebounds, while in contrast Jimmy Butler led the Heat with seven rebounds.

The Celtics dominated the Heat despite shooting just 31-78 from the field (.397), including 8-34 (.235) from three point range. The Celtics made up for their poor shooting by controlling the boards (60-39), and by shooting 32-38 from the free throw line compared to 8-14 free throw shooting by the Heat. The Heat compounded their problems by shooting even worse from the field (.333) than the Celtics did. This game was a classic example of how valuable size is, particularly when the bigger players are also more aggressive than the smaller players; undersized and lethargic is no way to win any basketball game, let alone an Eastern Conference Finals game. 

Victor Oladipo led the Heat with 23 points off of the bench. He outscored all five of the Heat's starters combined! Since the NBA started keeping separate statistics for starters more than 50 years ago, no starting lineup in a playoff game scored fewer points than the 18 scored by Miami's starters in this game. Duncan Robinson (14 points) and Caleb Martin (12 points) had solid games off of the bench. Bam Adebayo had more fouls (four) than field goals made (three). Jimmy Butler (six points on 3-14 field goal shooting) had more missed field goals than rebounds, assists, steals, and blocked shots combined. 

Despite such wild game to game swings, there are a few constants that can serve as guideposts for what to expect the rest of the way: defense, rebounding, and size travel well. Those are three advantages that the Celtics enjoy. On the other hand, the Celtics must win another game in Miami, but the Heat do not have to win another game in Boston. In a series in which each team has won a road game, the Heat's homecourt advantage does not appear to matter as much as the Celtics' defense, rebounding, and size; the Celtics can win in Miami, but the Heat are not likely to defend better, rebound better, or grow. It should be noted that injuries could be the X factor, as both teams are often uncertain who will be available to play until shortly before the opening tip.

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posted by David Friedman @ 1:51 AM

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Sunday, May 22, 2022

Miami Steals Game Three in Boston to Reclaim Homecourt Advantage

It is sometimes said that a team stole a game, but rarely has that been as literally true as it was when Miami beat Boston 109-103 to take a 2-1 lead in the Eastern Conference Finals. The Heat set a franchise playoff single game record with 19 steals, and they were credited with 33 points scored off of 24 Boston turnovers. Whether you praise Miami for forcing those miscues or blame Boston for being careless with the ball, the simple fact is that the Heat generated over 30% of their offense as a result of Boston giving up the ball without even attempting a shot. Three Heat players had four steals each: Bam Adebayo, Kyle Lowry, and Victor Oladipo. P.J. Tucker added three steals, and Jimmy Butler had two steals in just 19 minutes before a recurring knee injury sidelined him for the rest of the game. On the other side, Jaylen Brown led Boston with seven turnovers, and Jayson Tatum had six turnovers. 

Adebayo not only tied for game-high honors in steals, but he also led the Heat in scoring (31 points), rebounds (10), and assists (six) while shooting 15-22 from the field in a team-high 41:30 of playing time. P.J. Tucker (17 points) and Max Strus (16 points) were Miami's next two scorers. Oladipo scored just five points on 1-4 field goal shooting), but he played excellent defense, particularly against Brown.

The Celtics outrebounded the Heat 44-34, and they outshot the Heat from the field (.486 to .467), but those advantages were not quite enough to compensate for the Celtics' sloppy ballhandling. Brown scored a playoff career-high 40 points on 14-20 field goal shooting, and he ranked second on the team with nine rebounds. Al Horford added 20 points and a game-high 14 rebounds. Marcus Smart had 16 points and a game-high seven assists before fouling out with less than 40 seconds remaining in the game. Tatum struggled not only with turnovers but also with poor shooting as he scored just 10 points on 3-14 field goal shooting. It is difficult to win an NBA playoff game when your best player has twice as many turnovers as field goals made. To his credit, Tatum accepted full responsibility for his poor performance, declaring after the game, "Six turnovers and no field goals in the second half--that is unacceptable. Honestly, I've got to play better. I feel like I left the guys hanging tonight. That's on me."

If anyone still believes that there is momentum in a playoff series that carries over from game to game, the Heat shot holes in that notion by outscoring the Celtics 39-18 in the first quarter after being blown out by the Celtics in game two. The Heat annihilated the Celtics in the paint during the first 12 minutes, scoring 20 paint points on 10-15 field goal shooting while holding the Celtics to two paint points on 1-9 field goal shooting.

Early in the second quarter, the Heat extended their lead to 46-20 before the Celtics rallied to slash the margin to 62-47 by halftime. The third quarter was a 25-25 draw, but the wheels fell off for the Heat for most of the fourth quarter; the Celtics outscored the Heat 20-6 in the first 9:20 to pull within 93-92, but Max Strus drilled a three pointer right before the shot clock expired, and the Heat did not look back the rest of the way.

This series has been very disjointed in terms of levels of play and in terms of players missing action due to health/injury issues. For the Celtics, Al Horford and Marcus Smart were out, but now they are back. Robert Williams III has been in and out of the lineup. For the Heat, Kyle Lowry missed the first two games of this series (and the last four playoff games overall) before having a solid performance (11 points, six assists) in game three. Jimmy Butler has been battling recurring knee soreness throughout the playoffs, and the ailment limited him to eight points on 3-8 field goal shooting in game three. Tyler Herro spent the closing moments of game three on the sidelines with a big wrap on his thigh. 

Side note: I hope that all of the injured players become fully healthy as quickly as possible, but the spectacle of players being carried off of the court or helped off of the court as if they are mortally wounded only to run back onto the court minutes later is more than a bit odd. I prefer the Chris Spielman mantra that if he ever had to be helped off of the playing field then he would retire, and I could do without the excess drama. This kind of drama is one reason that people sometimes question how today's players would fare in previous eras during which more physical contact was not only allowed but encouraged. As I once noted, if Anthony Davis lived by Spielman's code then "he either would have retired many years ago, or he would have reacted differently to the various non-career threatening injuries that he has experienced."

It is difficult to anticipate what will happen in game four when it is not clear which players will play, and to what extent injuries will hinder the afflicted players if they do play. At full strength, I would still take Boston over Miami, but it does not seem that this series will be decided with either team at full strength.

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posted by David Friedman @ 1:46 AM

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Wednesday, May 04, 2022

Heat Cruise by 76ers as the James Harden "Concert Tour" Wraps up in Miami

The Miami Heat used a balanced scoring attack, blazing three point shooting, and solid defense to defeat the Philadelphia 76ers 119-103 and take a 2-0 lead before the series shifts to Philadelphia for the next two games. Bam Adebayo scored 23 points on 7-11 field goal shooting and he grabbed a team-high nine rebounds. Jimmy Butler added 22 points on 8-15 field goal shooting plus a game-high 12 assists. Victor Oladipo (19 points on 6-11 field goal shooting) and 2022 Sixth Man of the Year Tyler Herro (18 points on 6-10 field goal shooting) provided a huge lift off of the bench. The Heat outrebounded the 76ers 44-34, and the Heat shot 14-29 (.483) from three point range while holding the 76ers to 8-30 (.267) shooting from long distance.

With Joel Embiid sidelined for the second straight game (concussion protocol/orbital fracture), Tyrese Maxey poured in a game-high 34 points on 12-22 field goal shooting. Tobias Harris added 21 points on 9-17 field goal shooting while also contributing four rebounds, four assists, and four steals. Neither Maxey nor Harris committed a single turnover. If only the 76ers had an MVP-caliber player who was selected to the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team so that Maxey and Harris could be the second and third options, then the 76ers might have a real chance in this series even without Embiid.

Instead, the 76ers have a player whose resume is so fraudulent it should form the basis of a sequel to "Catch Me if You Can." James Harden's "concert tour" from the first game (5-13) continued as he set a 6-15 tour date tonight. Harden scored 20 points while shooting 6-15 from the field, and he led the 76ers with nine assists; he was inefficient overall, and he was invisible when it mattered the most: in the fourth quarter with the game up for grabs, Harden scored two points and shot 0-3 from the field. He scored four points on 1-5 field goal shooting in the second half. 

The "experts" keep saying that Harden has suddenly aged, but the only thing that has changed is that referees are not rewarding him with phantom foul calls; that means that he gets fewer cheap free throws, and it also means that defenders can guard him normally. Harden's demonstrated skill set now is the same that it was during previous playoff runs, as is his propensity to disappear in crunch time. Harden still overdribbles, jacks up three pointers, shoots poorly, and disappears when his team needs him the most. Harden was front and center for what Charles Barkley called "one of the worst choke jobs I've ever seen" as Harden's 2019 Houston Rockets lost at home to the Golden State Warriors sans Kevin Durant, and what we are seeing now is just the latest chapter in the epic book of Harden's playoff choke jobs/disappearing acts.

Miami led 31-24 after the first quarter as Butler scored six points on 2-4 field goal shooting. Harden started slowly with four points on 1-4 field goal shooting. Philadelphia gained no ground in the second quarter, and Miami enjoyed a 60-52 edge at intermission. Harden's only effective minutes happened in the second quarter, when he scored 12 points on 4-6 field goal shooting, but even those numbers are inflated by a gift from Oladipo with .1 second left: Harden was trapped and about to fling a desperation shot when Oladipo lightly bumped him, enabling Harden to parachute out of danger to the free throw line, where he made all three charity tosses. Those three donated points are more than he scored in the entire third quarter, as Maxey scored 13 points to keep the 76ers within striking distance while Harden had two points and two assists. Miami led 91-80 heading into the final stanza. 

Less than three years ago, Daryl Morey proclaimed that Harden is the greatest scorer in NBA history. With the 76ers' season on the line for all intents and purposes (teams rarely come back from a 2-0 deficit), Harden produced two fourth quarter points while orchestrating an offense that shot 6-18 from the field (.333) and was outscored 28-23. Harden has been pulling this kind of choke job/disappearing act in the playoffs for a decade. Why are people pretending like this is something new? The NBA officiating regular season games correctly and not giving Harden cheap free throw attempts is new, but Harden struggling in the playoffs is not new.

One of Harden's favorite "concert tour" dates is 2-11, a performance that he has scheduled four times during his playoff career. Maybe he is saving that one for an elimination game; it would not be the first time he scheduled a 2-11 tour date for an elimination game. 

When "stat gurus" began promoting "advanced basketball statistics," one of the major criticisms that they lobbed at old school NBA executives was that those executives regularly overpaid players because those executives allegedly did not know how to analytically evaluate basketball talent. Many "stat gurus" and their media Boswells got paid a lot of money to promote (and self-promote) such narratives. It will be fascinating to see if Morey, the poster child for the "stat gurus" and someone who has been a general manager for 14 years without reaching the NBA Finals even once, rewards Harden's "concert tour" with a contract extension of more than $200 million. The definitive book on the 76ers' journey from tanking to betting the house on Harden has yet to be written, but it most assuredly is not going to be the book that is inaccurately but amusingly titled Tanking to the Top. If Morey writes that nine figure check to Harden then "Tanking to Oblivion and Overpaying to the Bottom: How 'Advanced Basketball Statistics' Ruined the 76ers" would be a good book title.

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posted by David Friedman @ 11:43 PM

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Thursday, January 28, 2021

How High Will the Rockets Fly Without Harden?

The championship aspirations of James Harden's new team, the Brooklyn Nets, are much discussed, but it is interesting to observe Harden's former team as well. The Houston Rockets did not win a title with Harden, and they are not likely to win a title any time soon without him, but historically speaking an MVP-level player is typically worth at least 15-20 wins. Examples of this abound, including NBA-ready rookies Larry Bird and David Robinson, whose teams improved 32 wins and 35 wins respectively upon their arrival. Bird and Robinson were not entirely responsible for those win increases, but in both situations they were primarily responsible for turning around their franchises.

Harden received the 2018 regular season MVP, and he has finished second in the MVP voting three times (2015, 2017, 2019). If he is worthy of being considered a perennial MVP candidate then he should also be worth at least 15-20 wins.

After defeating the Portland Trail Blazers 104-101 tonight, the new-look Rockets are 5-3 since trading away Harden, a significant improvement from their 3-6 start to the season with Harden (Harden missed one game, a Rockets win versus Sacramento). After his final game with the Rockets--during which he scored 16 points on 5-16 field goal shooting as Houston lost by 17 to the L.A. Lakers--Harden publicly expressed his view that the Rockets were just not good enough. It is obvious that Harden quit on the team, and that the Rockets were not as bad as they looked with Harden, but it is also obvious that replacing Harden with Victor Oladipo is not a huge talent drop off, regardless of what the NBA's MVP voters may think.

This is obviously a small sample size of games in an unusual season dominated by the specter of COVID-19 and the associated health and safety protocols enacted by the NBA to attempt to complete an abbreviated 72 game schedule. However, the notion that the Rockets could be a good team without Harden should not be shocking to anyone who has followed Harden's career.

Harden has been putting up video-game level individual numbers for many years, but those numbers did not translate into consistent postseason success for the Rockets. Harden's Houston teams lost in the first round three times in eight seasons while making just two trips to the Western Conference Finals, and failing to reach the NBA Finals. As discussed in my analysis of Daryl Morey's Houston legacy, that is not elite level playoff performance.

Harden reminds me of Gilbert Arenas and Stephon Marbury, two players who put up gaudy individual numbers but who had very little positive impact on winning. After Arenas suffered an injury that caused him to miss extensive playing time and the Washington Wizards were not much worse without him, I asked Is Gilbert Arenas the Most Overrated All-Star in the NBA? Arenas' fans did not like that article, but they also could not refute the reality that even with Arenas the Wizards struggled to stay above .500. The record shows that Arenas did not have much impact on winning when he played, and the Wizards did not completely fall apart when he did not play.

There are players who score 30 points in a way that compromises opposing defenses and leads to team success, and there are players who score 30 points in a way that has little impact on team success. If you take Michael Jordan or Kobe Bryant off of a team then that team is going to struggle unless/until that team acquires a legit MVP-level player (the 1993-94 Chicago Bulls did not collapse without Jordan primarily because the Bulls still had Scottie Pippen, arguably the best all-around player in the league at that time other than Jordan). If you take Arenas or Harden off of a team, that team can survive by either adding an All-Star level player, or possibly even by pooling the collective efforts of several good but not great players.

Marbury did not score as prolifically as Arenas or Harden, but he averaged at least 20 ppg and at least 8 apg in six different seasons, a feat exceeded only by Oscar Robertson, who had 10 such seasons. Robertson was a master of the all-around game, a basketball genius; Marbury was the antithesis of Robertson in every meaningful way. Marbury made the playoffs just five times during his 13 season career, and his final playoff appearance was as a little-used reserve for the 2009 Boston Celtics; as a starter he never advanced past the first round. Marbury had all of the physical tools--he was strong, fast, and durable--but he did not know (or care) how to play winning basketball.

To a lesser extent, Steve Nash falls into the category of overrated player, but with some important caveats. At his peak, Nash was legitimately an MVP-level player, and he had a Hall of Fame-caliber career--but there is no way he should have been a two-time regular season MVP while his far more impactful contemporaries Shaquillle O'Neal and Kobe Bryant each won one regular season MVP. MVP voters assigned a value to Nash's performance that is not fully supported by what happened on the court. Of course, Nash was a better teammate than Arenas, Marbury, and Harden, and Nash had a much better understanding of what it takes to win--Nash just did not have the physical capability to dominate a game all over the court to the extent that players like Jordan, O'Neal, and Bryant could while leading teams to multiple titles. 

During Nash's final season with the Dallas Mavericks (2003-04), Dallas went 52-30 in the regular season, and lost in the first round of the playoffs. Next season, the Mavericks replaced Nash with Jason Terry--a good player, but hardly an all-time great--and lost in the second round of the playoffs after posting a 58-24 regular season record. The Mavericks advanced to the NBA Finals in 2005-06 after going 60-22 in the regular season, and they eventually won an NBA title in 2011; Jason Terry was the sixth man for that team, but still ranked third on the squad in minutes played per game.

Meanwhile, Nash's Phoenix teams--which were stacked with All-Stars and All-Star caliber players, including Amare Stoudemire, Shawn Marion, and Joe Johnson--advanced to the Western Conference Finals three times in eight years but never made it to the NBA Finals.

If your former team can replace you with a solid player and have better results, and if you cannot lead a stacked team to at least one NBA Finals, then you are not the best player in the NBA. Most NBA MVPs won at least one title. The exceptions are Charles Barkley, Karl Malone, Allen Iverson, Steve Nash, Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, and Giannis Antetokounmpo. 

The first three players on the list each led at least one team to the NBA Finals. Westbrook was the second best player on one Finalist, and Harden was the sixth man for that 2012 Oklahoma City squad. Rose's career trajectory was altered by injury, but he also won his MVP at least in part due to the negative narrative surrounding LeBron James after he quit in the playoffs before fleeing Cleveland for Miami.

Antetokounmpo is the only player from this group who is still in his prime, so he gets a pass for now--Michael Jordan and LeBron James each won multiple regular season MVPs before they won their first NBA titles, so it remains to be seen what path Antetokounmpo's career will take.

When the Rockets shipped out Harden, they did not get rid of a player who is worth 15-20 wins. If Oladipo and John Wall--who was initially acquired to play alongside Harden--can both stay healthy then the Rockets can continue to be what they were during the Harden era: a good team, but not quite good enough to win a title.

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posted by David Friedman @ 11:27 PM

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Thursday, January 14, 2021

Nets Acquire Harden in Four Team Deal

Insulting your teammates, sulking, and not playing hard works--at least if you are James Harden, who sleepwalked through the past several games while publicly proclaiming that his team is just not good enough, which must have made his teammates (including five-time All-Star John Wall) feel wonderful. Harden achieved his goal: he made the situation in Houston so untenable that the Rockets traded Harden to one of his preferred destinations, Brooklyn. Harden is thus able to flee Houston despite having three years left on a contract worth nearly $133 million. Some would call this an example of "player empowerment," while others would--correctly--say that this is an example of an employee getting away with a massive breach of contract: the Rockets agreed to pay Harden more than $100 million to be an elite basketball player for them, but Harden decided that he no longer wanted to fulfill his part of that deal, and as an end result the Rockets are deprived of his services while Harden will receive the full contract value from his new, preferred employer.

Here are the details of the deal:

The Brooklyn Nets acquired James Harden, and a 2022 second round pick from the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Houston acquired Cleveland Cavaliers guard Dante Exum, Brooklyn forward Rodions Kurucs, three of Brooklyn's first round picks (2022, 2024, 2026), four first round pick swaps from Brooklyn (2021, 2023, 2025, 2027), and a 2022 first round pick from Cleveland..

Cleveland acquired Brooklyn center Jarrett Allen and Brooklyn forward Taurean Prince.

It has been reported--but not yet officially confirmed by the NBA or the teams--that Indiana will be the fourth team in this deal, sending Victor Oladipo and a second round pick to Houston and receiving Brooklyn guard Caris LeVert plus a 2023 second round pick from Houston in return.

The Cavaliers upgraded their roster immediately. It is far from certain that the draft picks that they gave up would have yielded players who are more productive than Allen and Prince. The Cavaliers were not a contender prior to this trade and they are not a contender now, but this is a good deal for Cleveland. 

Assuming that the Pacers participate in this deal as reported then they will have gotten rid of a disgruntled and injury-prone Oladipo in exchange for LeVert, who has All-Star level talent. This is a good deal for Indiana as well.

The Rockets were never going to win a championship with Harden as their best player, so if the franchise's goal is to win a title then any deal that ships out Harden in exchange for even a modicum of talent plus draft picks is without question a good deal--and the Rockets did much better than that: if Wall and Oladipo can both stay healthy then the Rockets could be a playoff team that also has stockpiled a lot of draft assets that can be used to rebuild, or can be packaged to acquire veteran talent. 

Of course, most of the attention regarding this deal will focus on Brooklyn. Assuming that Kyrie Irving rejoins the team at some point, the Nets now have a "Big Three" consisting of two-time Finals MVP Kevin Durant, 2016 NBA champion Irving, and three-time scoring champion Harden. It will be interesting to see if Harden or Irving emerges as the second option, but there can be no doubt that Durant is easily the team's best player and first option on offense. It is important to remember that Oklahoma City traded Harden to Houston in 2012 primarily because Harden was unwilling to accept being the third option behind Durant and Russell Westbrook--and it is also important to remember that Harden failed to mesh well with every single All-Star the Rockets subsequently acquired to play alongside him, from Dwight Howard to Chris Paul to Russell Westbrook to (briefly this season) John Wall. Now, Harden will have to put his substantial ego in check and accept that Durant is the primary option on offense. 

Harden is talented enough to be the second or third option on a championship team, but the question has always been whether or not he has the mentality to accept such a role. Harden is a proven playoff choker whose high variance game is not conducive to sustained postseason success, and in his final days in Houston he quit despite the fact that the franchise catered to his every whim throughout his tenure with the team. Chokers do not tend to become winners, and quitters tend to quit when the going gets tough. Harden brings a lot of baggage to Brooklyn, and he has a lot to prove if he wants to be remembered as anything other than a talented but selfish high scoring loser.

Irving was a very effective second option behind LeBron James on a championship team, but Irving also chafed at times regarding that role so it will be fascinating watching him wrestle with Harden to be the second option behind Durant. It is difficult to picture the Nets' chemistry being great--unless Harden and Irving change patterns of behavior that they have displayed throughout their careers--and it is easy to picture it being disastrously bad. 

Another potential issue is whether or not the Nets are willing/able to play championship caliber defense. Durant is capable of being a good defender, as he showed while leading Golden State to back to back titles, but both Harden and Irving are subpar defensive players. The Nets' will also miss Allen's paint presence. Even if the Nets' three stars agree regarding the offensive pecking order and produce a highly efficient scoring attack they probably cannot score enough points against an elite team in a seven game playoff series to make up for how many points they will allow. 

First year Brooklyn coach Steve Nash, who won two regular season MVPs but no championships during his playing career, faces the daunting task of figuring out how to make this work. One of his assistant coaches, Mike D'Antoni (Nash's head coach during Nash's MVP seasons in Phoenix), is well acquainted with Harden's shortcomings and quirks--D'Antoni had the full Harden experience as Houston's head coach from 2016-20. D'Antoni also coached the Lakers to a 40-32 record in 2012-13 (he took over from Mike Brown when the team was 5-5), and his brief tenure in L.A. was most notable for (1) benching Pau Gasol (the second best player on the Lakers' 2009 and 2010 championship teams), (2) playing an aging Kobe Bryant so many minutes that Bryant's Achilles ruptured from the stress of carrying the team to a playoff berth, and (3) getting swept in the first round of the playoffs by the fourth largest margin of defeat in NBA postseason history in a performance so awful and inept that Hubie Brown declared during game four, "You can use all the excuses you want but the defensive game plan was zero here tonight--the execution of it, whatever it was." 

The popular, easy pick is to call the Nets the favorites in the East, but it is way too early to say that. All that can be said now is that the Nets have enough talent to win the East; how well that talent will function together to produce team success is far from clear. In 2013, the Nets mortgaged their future to obtain Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce; that experiment did not turn out well, and it will be fascinating to see if the Nets receive a greater return on their mortgaged future this time.

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posted by David Friedman @ 6:11 PM

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