20 Second Timeout

Chicago Versus Atlanta Preview

Eastern Conference Second Round

#1 Chicago (62-20) vs. #5 Atlanta (44-38)

Season series: Chicago, 2-1

Atlanta can win if…the Hawks utilize their athleticism to play aggressive defense, force turnovers and score a lot of points in transition. The Bulls play great half court defense, so the Hawks must speed up the game if they plan on scoring more than 85-90 ppg.

Chicago will win because…the Bulls consistently play much harder and much smarter than the Hawks do. The Bulls' active big men will control the paint at both ends of the court, while Derrick Rose will pick apart Atlanta's defense to create shots for himself and for his teammates.

Other things to consider: I should have had the courage of my convictions regarding the Orlando Magic's prospects after their two big midseason trades but I somehow convinced myself to pick Orlando to beat Atlanta in the first round. Frankly, neither team particularly impresses me: the Hawks have essentially the same roster as last year (Kirk Hinrich was a nice midseason addition but in terms of total regular season minutes played, the only change this season is swapping Jeff Teague for Maurice Evans), and they ended up with nine fewer wins than they had in 2009-10 despite firing Coach Mike Woodson, who became a scapegoat for the team's failure to advance past the second round; the Magic went from being a legit championship contender the past two seasons to a team that I knew would struggle just to win a single playoff series. Ultimately, I thought that having the best player, homecourt advantage and the edge in coaching would enable the Magic to get by the Hawks but the fact that even those trumps could not save Orlando shows just how far that franchise has fallen in a short time--and that stark realization will become even more clear if the Bulls dismantle the Hawks as thoroughly as I expect that they will.

The Hawks are a talented team but they are frustrating to watch because they so often play without focus or direction; on paper, the Bulls may be considered less talented than the Hawks overall (even though Derrick Rose is clearly the best player on either roster) but the Bulls are much more focused than the Hawks; TNT's Kenny Smith made a great point about this series: the Bulls will dominate in a lot of areas that do not show up in the boxscore, such as deflections, corralling loose balls and hustle plays. The Bulls' tenacity will disrupt the Hawks at both ends of the court and after the Bulls convincingly thrash a team that beat Orlando 4-2 it will be apparent just how much work the Magic have to do to once again become a contending team.

Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Carlos Boozer, Chicago Bulls, Derrick Rose, Jamal Crawford, Joakim Noah, Joe Johnson

posted by David Friedman @ 3:03 PM

8 comments

Los Angeles Versus Utah Preview

Western Conference Second Round

#1 L.A. Lakers (57-25) vs. #5 Utah (53-29)

Season series: L.A. Lakers, 3-1

Utah can win if…Deron Williams performs at an MVP level, Carlos Boozer and the other Utah bigs are able to be effective inside despite the length of L.A.'s bigs and the Jazz find a way to hold Kobe Bryant below 26-28 ppg on .450 field goal shooting without compromising their overall team defense to the extent that other Lakers get easy looks.

L.A. will win because…the Jazz have no one who can effectively match up with Bryant, so they will constantly have to double team him; that will open things up for Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum inside and/or the Lakers' perimeter shooters. The Jazz' undersized and injury-depleted frontcourt will also have trouble dealing with the Lakers' length--provided that Gasol and Bynum play with poise and appropriate aggressiveness.

Other things to consider: Utah's only win versus the Lakers this season came in the game after Bryant suffered his infamous broken right index finger; Bryant shot just 7-24 from the field in the second game of a back to back and the Jazz won 102-94 at home. The last time these teams faced each other in the postseason was in the first round of the 2009 playoffs; Bryant averaged 27.4 ppg on .466 field goal shooting plus 5.6 apg and 5.0 rpg as the Lakers cruised to a five game series victory. When the Lakers and Jazz faced each other in the second round of the 2008 playoffs, Bryant averaged 33.2 ppg on .491 field goal shooting plus 7.2 apg and 7.0 rpg as the Lakers won in six games. Bryant set the tone right from the start in that series with 38 points in a 109-98 game one victory and the Lakers were never seriously threatened as the Jazz had no answer for Bryant--and they still have no one on their roster who can effectively check him.

Bryant struggled at times with his shot during the Lakers' six game win over the Oklahoma City Thunder--averaging 23.5 ppg on .408 field goal shooting--but he came up big in the decisive game with 32 points on 12-25 field goal shooting. That is the sixth straight time that Bryant has scored at least 30 points in a potential closeout game on the road, tying Elgin Baylor's NBA record and topping Michael Jordan's streak of five straight such games from 1988-90. Before the series I said that the Lakers would be in serious danger of losing unless Bryant scored 26-28 ppg while shooting at least .450 from the field but the Lakers managed to advance even though Bryant fell short of both of those benchmarks. How did they do it? Bryant was off target in game one (team-high 21 points but only 6-19 shooting) but Kevin Durant shot even worse (24 points on 7-24 shooting) thanks to Ron Artest's suffocating defense, so the Lakers got an important win (despite what you may hear or believe, game one is very significant and the team that wins that game usually wins a series). Bryant had a series-high 39 points in game two and although his overall field goal percentage was less than optimal (12-28, .429), he controlled the game in the fourth quarter and carried the Lakers to victory. The Thunder bounced back in games three and four as Bryant first shot poorly (24 points on 12-29 shooting in game three) and then did not shoot enough (12 points on 5-10 shooting in game four). Game five proved to be the pivotal contest and Bryant did something that I did not expect considering how much his right knee has been limiting his bounce: Bryant took the challenge of guarding lightning quick point guard Russell Westbrook and completely disrupted the one player no other Laker could guard. This is actually a pretty standard move for Coach Phil Jackson--dating back to when Jackson put Scottie Pippen on point guards like Magic Johnson and Mark Jackson to cut off the head of the snake during the Bulls' championship runs in the 1990s--but I did not even mention this potential adjustment in my series preview simply because I did not think that in his current condition Bryant would be up to the task. Bryant's Pippen-like performance in game five--dominating a game with defense and playmaking despite not scoring much (13 points on 4-9 shooting)--shifted the series in the Lakers' favor and then Bryant closed out the deal in game six with his best all-around performance of the series.

All season long media critics have been carping that the Lakers made a mistake when they essentially swapped Trevor Ariza for Ron Artest but in the first round we saw just how valuable Artest is as a one on one, lock down defender versus elite scorers; Ariza used his strength and savvy to force 2010 scoring champion Durant into a miserable series (25.0 ppg on .350 field goal shooting, including 26 points on 5-23 field goal shooting in the clincher). Ariza is great at playing the passing lanes but he lacks the strength and overall defensive ability to do what Artest did to Durant; Ariza is a very solid role player who performed well for the Lakers in a limited, specified role last season (spot up three point shooter, rangy defender in the passing lanes) but Artest is a former Defensive Player of the Year/All-Star who can have a bigger impact on a game than Ariza can.

It sure is nice to be Pau Gasol; although he did good work on the glass in game six (18 rebounds) versus the Thunder, Gasol had shot just 3-10 from the field--looking tentative and off balance--before converting the game-winning putback of Kobe Bryant's missed baseline jumper: Gasol had a wide open path to the front of the rim because Nick Collison slid over to contest Bryant's shot. That kind of play is exactly what I mean when I say that Gasol is so fortunate to play with Bryant; during the first 47:59.5 of that game we got a pretty good sense of how much trouble the Lakers would be in if they needed Gasol to be the first option offensively in a closeout game--but Bryant's ability to draw double teams provides easy scoring opportunities for Gasol. When he is at his best, Gasol exploits those opportunities but--as Artest put it after the game--during game six Gasol "fell asleep" at times but fortunately for the Lakers he woke up literally at the last second to save the day. If the Lakers are going to return to the NBA Finals for the third straight year it is imperative that Gasol take more advantage of similar easy opportunities throughout the upcoming games, particularly since Bryant's injuries appear to be preventing him from dominating offensively to the extent that he usually does.

Labels: Carlos Boozer, Deron Williams, Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers, Pau Gasol, Ron Artest, Utah Jazz

posted by David Friedman @ 4:44 AM

22 comments

Jazz Outlast Lakers 99-90 in Andrew Bynum's Return to Action

The Utah Jazz defeated the L.A Lakers 99-90 in the preseason opener for both teams. The game was played at the Honda Center in Anaheim, California and broadcast by NBA TV, which picked up the local L.A. Lakers feed featuring play by play announcer Joel Meyers and color commentator Stu Lantz (due to some kind of unexplained glitch, the only audio for the first couple minutes of the game consisted of the sounds on the court and P.A. announcer Lawrence Tanter). Ronnie Brewer and Paul Millsap led the Jazz with 13 points each, while Deron Williams had 11 points and a game-high eight assists. Andrew Bynum, playing competitively for the first time since January, led both teams with 15 points and eight rebounds. Jordan Farmar also scored 15 points. Kobe Bryant had eight points, five rebounds and five assists while playing 24 minutes; he played the entire first and third quarters while sitting out the second and fourth quarters. Trevor Ariza played very actively at both ends of the court, contributing 10 points and five rebounds.

The Lakers moved Lamar Odom all over the court as they begin the season-long process of trying to find the proper role for him now that Bynum has returned to health but the only category Odom led the Lakers in was fouls committed (five). Odom finished with five points, five rebounds and three assists. The vision of him handling the ball at the top of the key instead of Bryant or Derek Fisher cannot be comforting to Lakers' fans but even more disconcerting is the vision of him chasing small forward shooters like Kyle Korver off of screens. Odom's best attribute is his ability to rebound and that was the one thing that he did well despite being shifted around to multiple positions. Pau Gasol got off to a good start--making his first three shots from the field--but after a hack by Mehmet Okur opened up a cut in Gasol's lip he left the game and did not return.

Both teams were shorthanded. Lakers Coach Phil Jackson was not at the game due to some swelling in his legs, possibly caused by an allergic reaction to medication that he is taking. It is unclear when he will return to the bench. Jazz All-Star Carlos Boozer sat out to rest a sore left hamstring and Matt Harpring did not play because he is still recovering from ankle surgery. Laker reserves Sasha Vujacic and Luke Walton did not play due to minor injuries that will not likely sideline them for a significant period of time.

Although it is widely expected that Bynum and Gasol will both start, Bynum began this game on the bench as the Lakers opened with a lineup of Gasol, Odom and Trevor Ariza up front, with Bryant and Fisher in the backcourt. Nominally, Odom is the power forward in that lineup but on the Lakers' first possession, Odom handled the ball out front, while Bryant posted on the left block. After Bryant was double-teamed, he fed Gasol, who buried an open jumper from the right baseline.

On defense, Odom guarded center Okur, Gasol checked power forward Millsap and Trevor Ariza matched up with small forward C.J. Miles. Odom picked up two quick fouls--a silly loose ball foul right after he was stripped of the ball on a drive and a hack when Millsap drove to the hoop. Acting Head Coach Kurt Rambis kept Odom in the game anyway. The score was tied at 10 when Bynum made his first appearance at the 6:55 mark after Gasol had to leave the game due to the blood rule. The first time he touched the ball, Bynum drained a foul line jumper. Bynum's second touch came after he set a screen for Bryant on the left wing and both defenders collapsed on Bryant, who whipped a pass to a cutting Bynum. Bynum took one dribble and tried to make a power move but Okur swatted his shot out of bounds. Not long after that, Bynum caught the ball on the left block versus Okur and drained a nice turnaround jumper. Then Bynum received the ball from Bryant in the middle of the lane, hit another turnaround jumper and drew a foul on Millsap. Bynum completed the three point play by making the free throw.

Shortly after that, Vladimir Radmanovic checked in for Odom and promptly ruined an opportunity for an easy layup by fumbling a Bryant pass out of bounds. The ball hit him in both hands. Bryant put some pace on it but, as Lantz said, "You've got to catch that one." A few possessions later, Bynum got his first dunk of the game after Fisher lost the ball, dove to the court, recovered possession and flipped a no look lob pass over his head to Bynum right in front of the rim.

The Lakers shot 75% from the field and led 26-19 at the end of the first quarter despite committing nine turnovers. Bynum scored nine points on 4-6 shooting and had four rebounds. Bryant did not look for his shot much but made his presence felt as a playmaker (four assists) and on defense, including a sensational left handed blocked shot that wiped out a sure layup for Jarron Collins.

It was very interesting and telling to see Bynum posting up in the second quarter when Bryant was not in the game. Without Bryant attracting defensive attention, perimeter defenders feel free to sag into the paint and dig for the ball. Bynum does not have sufficient court awareness to deal with this just yet, so the first time this happened he had the ball stripped right out of his hands. The next time Bynum caught the ball on the block, he reacted to the double-team by hastily throwing up a weak shot that clanged off of the rim. Bynum is a talented player with a lot of the proverbial upside but what many people don't recognize or understand is that when he is on the court with Bryant he gets to play one on one--or often one on none after a screen/roll play--and that is a whole different scenario than having to create his own shot when the defense does not have to be concerned about Bryant.

After a sloppy second quarter contested largely by reserve players from both teams, the Lakers led 42-40 at halftime.

Bryant gambled for a steal and gave up a backdoor layup to Brewer on the opening possession of the second half but then Bryant quickly answered with a jumper after using a nice jab step to create some space. The Lakers' court balance and transition defense were very poor in the third quarter, resulting in a lot of fast break dunks for the Jazz.

Lantz really liked Ariza's activity and early in the third quarter Lantz made an excellent observation: "Kobe looks for his teammates but you can only look for teammates who are moving without the ball. Trevor Ariza is always slashing, trying to get to the paint. You make that kind of movement and you are going to find yourself in position to get easy opportunities."

Bynum did not do much in the third quarter but on one possession he faced up Okur at the free throw line extended and made a nice drive, finishing strongly with his left hand, to put the Lakers up 57-56. However, the Jazz closed the quarter with a 20-12 run.

Like the second quarter, the fourth quarter was largely contested by reserve players from both teams. Bynum reentered the game with 5:51 remaining. He immediately caught the ball deep in the paint and made a left handed hook over Kevin Lyde, a 28 year old undrafted free agent rookie who has played four seasons in the NBDL. However, on the next possession we once again saw the difference in Bynum's game when Bryant is not on the court: Bynum caught the ball in the midpost area and was stripped of the ball by a guard (Ronnie Price) digging down. "That one's on Andrew," Lantz explained. "He made a commitment to that particular move without reading the defense first, reading where the weakside was, reading if a double-team was coming." Lantz could have added that when Bryant is in the game, such reads are much simpler because the double-team is likely not coming at all, so Bynum can simply go to work against his defender.

Anyone who thinks that Bynum is a franchise-level player right now simply does not understand the game; he may develop into such a player but thus far in Bynum's brief career a lot of his offensive production has come as a byproduct of the defensive attention that Bryant attracts. That is not a bad thing nor is stating this meant to be a criticism of Bynum; at least Bynum can take advantage of such situations, unlike Kwame Brown. Rather, this is a criticism of fans and "stat gurus" alike who overstate Bynum's value. There is a big difference between Bynum's potential and his value right now--right now, Bynum is valuable for his rebounding, shotblocking and ability to finish in the paint, not because he is a franchise-level player.

That said, Bynum made a nice adjustment the next time he caught the ball, making a quick move against Lyde before the double-team could arrive and drawing a foul. Bynum made both free throws to cut Utah's lead to 95-86. On the next possession, Bynum held on to the ball longer, but the Jazz did not double-team him. Bynum attempted a turnaround jumper that Lyde blocked.

After the game, Bynum offered a very candid and realistic answer when asked if he was happy with his performance: "Nah, it was decent. I think I can do better. I need to do better."

This game did not really answer the questions about the Lakers' player rotations because we still have yet to see Gasol and Bynum on the court together, let alone seeing Gasol, Bynum and Odom in action at the same time. Ariza looked very good and if he can play like that consistently he really should be the starting small forward. The Jazz were shorthanded as well but they obviously have a nice group of young, athletic players--Millsap, Brewer, Miles--to complement the Williams-Boozer duo. Okur had a solid game in limited action and although Andrei Kirilenko had a quiet night his versatitility and his ability to defend multiple positions make him very valuable.

Labels: Andrew Bynum, Carlos Boozer, Deron Williams, Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers, Lamar Odom, Pau Gasol, Utah Jazz

posted by David Friedman @ 5:23 AM

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Team USA Olympics Report Card

After Team USA went 5-0 during the pre-Olympic exhibition tour, I wrote a report card for SlamOnline. Kobe Bryant, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade were the three "A" students. Not surprisingly, they also finished at the top of the class on my Olympics report card as well.

Players are listed in order of minutes played because that statistic provides a hint about Coach Mike Krzyzewski's evaluation. Wade, James, Bryant and Anthony were Team USA's four leading scorers, so I also included their box score statistics in the one and done medal round play (the final three games). It should go without saying--but I'll say it anyway--that it is not meaningful to compare a player's numbers in 40 minute games played under FIBA rules with his numbers in 48 minute games played under NBA rules. A better yardstick is to consider how the top players from the 1992 Dream Team performed. Charles Barkley led the 1992 Dream Team in scoring (18.0 ppg) while shooting .711 from the field. He averaged 4.1 rpg (tied with David Robinson for third on the team) and 2.4 apg. Michael Jordan ranked second in scoring (14.9 ppg), second in assists (4.8 apg), led the team in steals (37) and averaged 2.4 rpg. Jordan shot .451 from the field--worse than any player other than little used Christian Laettner--and just 4-19 (.211) from three point range. Karl Malone ranked third in scoring (13.0 ppg) and tied with Patrick Ewing for the team lead in rebounding (5.3 rpg). Chris Mullin (12.9 ppg) and Clyde Drexler (10.5 ppg) were the other double figure scorers. Scottie Pippen (9.0 ppg) led the team in assists (5.9 apg) and ranked second in steals (23).

The grades listed below represent how well a particular player filled his respective role on the team; obviously, some players had bigger roles than others, so a bench player's "B" does not mean the same thing as a starter's "B." Production when games were close is given a heavier weight than production that took place after the victories were already well in hand.

I recorded on court/off court data throughout the Olympics for five players: Bryant, James, Wade, Carmelo Anthony and Jason Kidd. These numbers simply indicate how many points Team USA scored and how many points Team USA's opponents scored when a given player was in the game; this data provides a very rudimentary indication of a player's impact but it does not include "game state" information such as which other players were on the court at the same time or how close the score of the game was: production is more significant when it takes place against the toughest opponents in close games, as opposed to statistics that are accumulated against reserves at the end of blowouts.

LeBron James (24.8 mpg, 15.5 ppg, 3.8 apg, 5.3 rpg, 19 steals, eight blocked shots overall; 26.7 mpg, 15 ppg, 2.7 apg, 6.7 rpg, 7 steals, one blocked shot in medal round play)

James led Team USA in steals and blocked shots, ranked second in scoring and assists and shot .602 from the field, including .464 from three point range. The only negatives on his ledger were free throw shooting (.458) and turnovers (a team-high 17). James put up the best overall box score numbers of any player on the team. As Doug Collins noted during several of the telecasts, James played terrific help defense on the back line, blocking shots and getting steals. Not surprisingly, James' minutes went up during medal round play and he continued to post excellent box score numbers.

Team USA outscored the opposition by 154 points overall when James was on the court and they outscored the opposition by 50 points when James was on the court during the medal round games.

Grade: "A"

Kobe Bryant (23.5 mpg, 15.0 ppg, 2.1 apg, 2.8 rpg, nine steals, four blocked shots overall; 28 mpg, 19 ppg, 2.7 apg, 3.3 rpg, three steals, three blocked shots in medal round play)

Bryant ranked third on Team USA in scoring, fourth in assists and steals and first in three pointers made. He finished right behind James in turnovers (15) and, like James, did not shoot very well from the free throw line (.583). Bryant shot .462 from the field and .321 from three point range but after his much celebrated 1-15 start from behind the arc in the first two games he shot 16-38 (.421) the rest of the way.

As soon as Bryant joined the team he immediately asked to be assigned the task of guarding the best perimeter player on each opposing team. That was Bryant's primary responsibility for Team USA and he did an excellent job in this regard. He often took a back seat offensively but when the chips were down in the medal round Bryant averaged a team-high 19 ppg while shooting .500 from the field and .375 from three point range. He dominated the fourth quarter of the 118-107 win over Spain in the gold medal game, scoring 13 points and adding two assists in that final stanza.

Team USA came up short in the three previous major FIBA competitions (2004 Olympics, 2006 and 2002 FIBA World Championship) primarily because of a lack of on court leadership, poor defense and the inability or unwillingness of anyone to step up in crucial moments in medal round games. James and Wade each had superb tournaments in the 2008 Olympics--very similar to their performances in the 2006 FIBA World Championship--but the difference this time around was that Bryant provided precisely what Team USA had been missing in the three areas mentioned above.

Team USA outscored the opposition by 134 points overall when Bryant was on the court and they outscored the opposition by 52 points when he was on the court during the medal round games.

Grade: "A"

Chris Paul (21.9 mpg, 8.0 ppg, 4.1 apg, 3.6 rpg, 18 steals, 0 blocked shots overall)

Paul led Team USA in assists and free throw percentage (.917), tied for second in steals and he easily had the best assist/turnover ratio (3.67/1). Paul forced a lot of turnovers with his ball pressure but on occasions he let his man get by him off of the dribble, resulting in defensive breakdowns. He padded some of his numbers in the fourth quarters of blowouts but in several games he also provided a nice spark off of the bench to help Team USA build large leads.

Grade: "B+"

Carmelo Anthony (19.1 mpg, 11.5 ppg, .4 apg, 4.3 rpg, eight steals, two blocked shots overall; 22 mpg, 16.3 ppg, .3 apg, 3.3 rpg, two steals, one blocked shot in medal round play)

Anthony ranked fourth on Team USA in scoring and rebounding. He tied for the team lead in fouls committed. Only three players had fewer assists (Bosh, Boozer and Prince). Anthony led Team USA in scoring during the 2007 FIBA Americas tournament and the 2006 FIBA World Championship, so his scoring output in the Olympics has to be considered a major disappointment, particularly in light of his dismal field goal percentage (.422, lower than every other player except Redd). Anthony's .481 two point field goal percentage was also the second lowest on the team and he was the only player among the top seven scorers who did not shoot at least .600 on two point shots. Before the Olympics, Anthony vowed to average 10 rpg and to break the Team USA single game Olympic rebounding record but he never came close to doing either of those things. The main positive for Anthony is that he shot .828 from the free throw line, the one area where Bryant, James and Wade struggled.

Anthony increased his scoring to 16.3 ppg in medal round play but that number is deceptive: he shot .382 from the field in those three games and even though he led Team USA in scoring versus Argentina (21 points) he shot 3-14 from the field in that contest.

Team USA outscored the opposition by 86 points overall when Anthony was on the court and they outscored the opposition by just 25 points when Anthony was on the court during medal round play. Among the five players I tracked, Anthony is the only one who had a negative on court rating for an entire game--and this happened twice: Angola outscored Team USA 46-42 when Anthony was on the court and in the gold medal game Spain outscored Team USA 49-38 when Anthony was on the court. It is no coincidence that Anthony was not in the game for the last eight minutes of the fourth quarter of the gold medal game; throughout the Olympics, Anthony was often on the bench when Team USA made its best runs and when he was in games during such runs it was generally James, Wade and/or Bryant who shouldered most of the load.

Grade: "C-"

Deron Williams (19.0 mpg, 8.0 ppg, 2.8 apg, 2.3 rpg, six steals, 0 blocked shots overall)

Williams ranked second on Team USA in free throw percentage (.900) and third in assists. He did a good job of using his size and strength to penetrate opposing defenses. He made a few bad gambles defensively and was sometimes careless with his ballhandling but overall he did a very solid job.

Grade: "B"

Dwyane Wade (18.8 mpg, 16.0 ppg, 1.9 apg, 4.0 rpg, 18 steals, one blocked shot overall; 19.3 mpg, 15.7 ppg, 1.7 apg, 4.7 rpg, six steals, 0 blocked shots in medal round play)

Wade led Team USA in scoring, tied for second in steals and he ranked second in three point shooting percentage (.471) among players who attempted more than two three pointers. Wade shot a blistering .671 from the field overall, trailing only Howard and Bosh among players who attempted at least one shot a game (Kidd shot 6-7 from the field). Wade struggled a bit from the free throw line (.634) and at times made some risky defensive gambles but his overall play was superb. He clearly has healed completely from his injuries and regained--if not increased--his previous athletic ability and explosiveness.

Wade did not start one game; he usually came off of the bench midway through the first quarter to replace Anthony, though sometimes foul trouble altered that rotation. Wade's on court numbers (not his own stats per se, but rather Team USA's scoring margin when he was in the game) benefited from not sharing minutes with Anthony, while Bryant and James' numbers were dragged down a bit in this regard. As a sixth man who played limited minutes, Wade had the advantage of being fresh and from playing against either reserve players or tired starters; after just two minutes of play in the second quarter of Team USA's 92-69 win over Greece, Wade asked to come out of the game because he was totally gassed. None of this diminishes how well Wade played but it goes a long way toward explaining why Wade came off of the bench instead of starting, why he did not play as many minutes as Bryant or James and why people should not be quick to assume that this performance means that Wade will be on the All-NBA First Team this season; in order for Wade to resume being an elite level NBA player he will have to be able to stay healthy and productive while playing 35-plus mpg over the course of an 82 game season.

Team USA outscored the opposition by 161 points overall when Wade was on the court and they outscored the opposition by 48 points when Wade was on the court during the medal round games.

Grade: "A"

Chris Bosh (17.3 mpg, 9.1 ppg, .3 apg, 6.1 rpg, two steals, six blocked shots overall)

Bosh led Team USA in rebounding and field goal percentage (.774) and he ranked second in free throw percentage (.862). He was perhaps the most pleasant surprise; Wade's performance was more a matter of him getting healthy than anything else, but Bosh supplanted Howard as Team USA's most effective big. Bosh not only played very well in the paint at both ends of the court but he also did a great job of helping to defend on the perimeter against screen/roll plays. His emergence relegated Boozer to mop up duty and further reinforced a theme that I emphasized all along, namely that Team USA did not need another big on the roster; USA Basketball managing director Jerry Colangelo was right to bolster the team's size and defensive flexibility on the perimeter, fully realizing that Team USA would only play one traditional big at a time. In terms of FIBA play, Bosh proved to be a better big than Amare Stoudemire, who played in the 2007 FIBA Americas tournament but decided to rest his knees this summer.

Grade: "A"

Dwight Howard (16.1 mpg, 10.9 ppg, .5 apg, 5.8 rpg, five steals, seven blocked shots overall)

Howard ranked second on Team USA in rebounding, blocked shots and field goal percentage (.745) and fifth in scoring. He was not quite as dominant or effective as he was in the 2007 FIBA Americas tournament in terms of field goal percentage and blocked shots but Team USA faced tougher opposition in this event. Howard sometimes got caught up in retaliating against opposing players and he seemed to get into Coach Krzyzewski's dog house a couple times. Nevertheless, he started every game at center, scored in double figures and was a physical presence in the paint at both ends of the court. His screen/roll defense was not nearly as good as Bosh's.

Grade: "B+"

Jason Kidd (13.5 mpg, 1.6 ppg, 2.0 apg, 2.6 rpg, five steals, two blocked shots overall)

Despite his limited minutes, Kidd ranked fourth on Team USA in assists. He famously did not shoot frequently but he made his attempts count by converting six of his seven shots. The only downside for Kidd is that he forced a few passes, resulting in 12 turnovers. During the Olympics, Kidd somehow turned into the player that fan bloggers loved to hate. Yes, his boxscore numbers will not blow anyone away but he was USA Basketball's Player of the Year in 2007 after he put up similar numbers in the FIBA Americas tournament: 15.8 mpg, 1.8 ppg, 4.6 apg, 3.3 rpg, 13 steals, five blocked shots). The way that Kidd and Team USA played in that event paved the way for this year's Olympics triumph. Although Kidd is a triple double king in the NBA, in FIBA play his value is not captured by numbers alone. Team USA struggled defensively in recent years, particularly in the backcourt, but the addition of Bryant and Kidd to the starting lineup not only fixed that problem but resulted in the rest of the players stepping up their defense as well. Kidd is a winner. I don't like to mix NBA or NCAA stats with FIBA stats but it is worth mentioning that there is a consistent pattern throughout Kidd's career that teams he joins increase their winning percentage and that teams he leaves experience a decline in winning percentage.

From a minutes standpoint, Kidd took a backseat to youngsters Paul and Williams, though it should be noted that Paul and Williams played almost all of the garbage time minutes; the minutes when games were up for grabs were pretty evenly split among that trio.

Kidd had a game-high seven assists in Team USA's 101-81 semifinal victory over Argentina. The semifinal round was the graveyard for Team USA in the 2006 FIBA World Championship and the 2004 Olympics but this time around Kidd made sure that this would not happen; early in the second half he did an excellent job of setting down Team USA's halfcourt offense, making sure that Howard got the ball in the paint.

Team USA outscored the opposition by 69 points overall when Kidd was on the court and they outscored the opposition by 31 points when he was on the court during medal round play.

Grade: "B+"

Tayshaun Prince (11.0 mpg, 4.3 ppg, .3 apg, 1.9 rpg, three steals, one blocked shot overall)

Prince, Redd and Boozer were clearly the last men on the bench for this team but Prince received more non-garbage time minutes than Redd and Boozer did. Prince led Team USA in three point field goal percentage (6-11, .545), though he obviously did not shoot nearly as many three pointers as Wade, James and several others. Prince shot .591 from the field overall but his real value is that he is a long armed defender who can guard multiple positions; that makes him a more valuable FIBA player for Team USA than a one dimensional shooter like Redd.

I gave Prince an "I" (incomplete) in my previous report card but since his non-garbage time minutes increased during the Olympics he showed enough to get a regular grade this time.

Grade: "B+"

Michael Redd (9.1 mpg, 3.1 ppg, .5 apg, 1.1 rpg, two steals, 0 blocked shots overall)

Redd was the darling of many so-called experts, the player whose outside marksmanship would supposedly be vital for Team USA to win the gold medal. Last year, I did a post titled Team USA Needs Bruce Bowen More Than it Needs Michael Redd and I have consistently and repeatedly stated that Redd--who is a very good NBA player--would be nothing more than a spare part on this squad for the following reasons: Team USA's primary focus has to be defense, Team USA has several players who are better perimeter defenders than Redd who can also make the shorter FIBA three point shot and it is much more important for Team USA to defend opposing three point shooters than it is for Team USA to make three pointers.

Redd shot .323 from the field in the Olympics, including .278 from three point range. He rarely appeared on the court before the victory was completely secured; in the gold medal game he did not check in until the final seconds.

Considering that Redd is a pure shooter who had by far the worst shooting percentage on the team it is tempting to give him an "F" but that would not really be fair considering his limited playing time. However, can we please stop hearing about how Team USA needs pure shooters like Redd, Mike Miller and (I hope no one is serious about this) J.J. Redick?

Grade: "I"

Carlos Boozer (6.0 mpg, 3.3 ppg, .3 apg, 1.9 rpg, two steals, 0 blocked shots overall)

I thought that Howard would play about 20 mpg and that Boozer and Bosh would average roughly 10 mpg each but Bosh played so well that he grabbed some minutes from both Howard and Boozer. Contrary to the dire predictions that Team USA did not have enough size up front, the reality proved to be exactly what I predicted: Team USA's versatile perimeter defenders wreaked havoc, James and Anthony took turns playing power forward and Team USA only needed one true NBA big on the court at a time; sometimes Team USA went with a small lineup with no true NBA bigs.

Boozer was a spare part for this team and any other big (Tyson Chandler is the name that came up most often) that people wanted to add either in his place or instead of one of the perimeter players would also have been a spare part.

Grade: "I"

Final thoughts:

Anthony (19.9 ppg), Wade (19.3 ppg) and James (13.9 ppg) were the three leading scorers on the 2006 version of Team USA that settled for the bronze medal in the FIBA World Championship. Howard and Elton Brand split the starting duties at center, while Bosh came off of the bench. Chris Paul started six of nine games at point guard and led the team in assists.

Anthony played much worse in this year's Olympics than he did for Team USA in 2006, while Wade and James performed comparably offensively and better defensively this time around. Bosh received more minutes in 2008 and played better defensively. However, if you compare the rosters, the statistics and the visual evidence, the obvious difference between this version of Team USA and the previous versions came at the defensive end of the court. In 2006, Team USA opponents shot .462 from the field and .349 from three point range; in 2008, Team USA opponents shot .403 from the field and .299 from three point range. The defensive improvement began when Colangelo added Bryant and Kidd to the roster: Colangelo says that, Krzyzewksi says that, the team's scouts say that and the players say that.

Labels: 2008 Team USA, Carlos Boozer, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Dwight Howard, Dwyane Wade, Jason Kidd, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Michael Redd, Tayshaun Prince

posted by David Friedman @ 7:40 PM

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Team USA Pre-Olympic Exhibition Tour Report Card

My report card for Team USA's Pre-Olympic Exhibition Tour has been published at SlamOnline. You can check it out here:

Team USA Exhibition Tour Report Card

Labels: 2008 Team USA, Carlos Boozer, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Dwight Howard, Dwyane Wade, Jason Kidd, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Michael Redd, Tayshaun Prince

posted by David Friedman @ 2:05 PM

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Analyzing Team USA's 12 Man Roster

On Monday, USA Basketball announced the 12 man roster that will comprise the 2008 U.S. Olympic basketball team. Five of the 12 have participated in the Olympics previously (Carmelo Anthony, Carlos Boozer, LeBron James, Jason Kidd and Dwyane Wade); the only U.S. team that had more Olympic veterans was the 1996 squad--that unit welcomed back six players from the 1992 U.S. Olympic team, the only group that truly deserved the "Dream Team" designation. Eight members of the 2008 team played in the 2007 FIBA Americas tournament, which Team USA won with a 10-0 record; here is a list of those eight players, along with some of their statistics from the 2007 FIBA Americas tournament.

Carmelo Anthony (21.2 ppg, .613 FG%, .578 3Pt FG%, 5.2 rpg, 1.4 apg in nine games)
LeBron James (18.1 ppg, .760 FG%, .622 3Pt FG%, 3.6 rpg, 4.7 apg in 10 games)
Kobe Bryant (15.3 ppg, .548 FG%, .459 3Pt FG%, 2.0 rpg, 2.9 apg in 10 games)
Michael Redd (14.4 ppg, .530 FG%, .453 3Pt FG%, 1.4 rpg, 1.5 apg in 10 games)
Dwight Howard (10.0 ppg, .814 FG%, 5.3 rpg, 18 blocked shots in 10 games)
Tayshaun Prince (7.3 ppg, .481 FG%, .357 3Pt FG%, 5.0 rpg, 2.1 apg in nine games)
Deron Williams (4.7 ppg, .613 FG%, 5-10 3Pt FG, 1.0 rpg, 4.6 apg in 10 games)
Jason Kidd (1.8 ppg, 6-10 FG, 5-8 3Pt FG, 3.3 rpg, 4.6 apg in 10 games)

Amare Stoudemire and Chauncey Billups played in 2007 but withdrew their names from the selection process this time around. Tyson Chandler played the fewest minutes on the 2007 team and Mike Miller had the second lowest field goal percentage on the 2007 team. Those four players have been replaced by Carlos Boozer, Chris Bosh, Chris Paul and Dwyane Wade.

In addition to the Olympic and international experience listed above, the current roster has the 2008 NBA MVP (Bryant), four of the five members of the 2008 All-NBA First Team (Bryant, James, Howard and Paul) plus a 2008 All-NBA Second Team selection (Williams) and a 2008 All-NBA Third Team selection (Boozer).

Since the debacles for Team USA in 2002, 2004 and 2006, USA Basketball has emphasized that it wants a three year commitment from players so that the team can develop cohesion and chemistry. That is why the fifth member of the 2008 All-NBA First Team, Kevin Garnett, is not on the roster. USA Basketball managing director Jerry Colangelo said of Garnett, "We never got any positive feedback of his interest. It was more about 'I've been there, I've done that and it's time for someone else to do it.' I had a number of conversations with his agent just to check the temperature of the water, and there was never any positive response. We would have loved to have had him...but obviously, it wasn't in the cards."

The key additions to the 2007 team were Kobe Bryant and Jason Kidd; they quickly emerged as team leaders because of their professionalism, work ethic and defensive intensity, three qualities that had been noticeably missing on recent editions of Team USA. U.S. Coach Mike Krzyzewski said, "Kobe is unbelievably committed to representing his country. Last summer playing for our team, the first time he saw his uniform, he got emotional...The first thing he did for us last summer, he was our best perimeter defender--and that's a role he wanted...I think we'll start out with the same thing because he knows he can play that way and expend the energy on defense because of the offensive talent of his teammates...We usually put him on the best perimeter player on the opposing team whether it be a point guard or a wing, and that's how we started the game. And that's how I want to start our practice sessions with that in mind." Bryant sacrificed some of his offensive game to concentrate on defense but still managed to finish third on the team in scoring and fourth in assists.

In a December 5, 2007 post, I mentioned some things that Suns General Manager Steve Kerr told me that then-Suns Coach Mike D'Antoni--a Team USA assistant coach--had said about Bryant's role on Team USA:

Prior to each game in last summer's FIBA Americas tournament, Bryant asked the coaching staff, "Who do you want me to take out?" In other words, Bryant wanted to know who was the toughest perimeter threat on each team so that he could study his tendencies on film and then completely neutralize him on the court. I said to Kerr, "That sounds like a sniper zeroing in on a target" and Kerr replied, "Yeah--and he was serious." Kerr went on to say that Bryant's "focus" and "bravado" added an essential missing element to the squad and elevated everyone else's play. Kerr noted that the previous Team USA squad had performed reasonably well other than the infamous loss to Greece but that it lacked a certain "swagger," as he termed it, and that Team USA did not have a "player who everyone feared." Kerr literally shook his head in wonderment as he described Bryant's impact on Team USA.

Kidd's leadership came in a much subtler form; there is virtually no statistical evidence of it, other than the fact that he ranked second on the team in assists--but make no mistake that he played a very key role on the team. He has never lost a game while wearing a Team USA jersey and he made it clear that he does not intend on ending that streak now.

The usual starting lineup of Bryant, Kidd, James, Anthony and Howard generally led the team to such big early leads that players like Redd, Stoudemire and Williams put up a lot of their numbers in de facto garbage time. Though casual fans probably assume that Chris Paul will be the starting point guard, I expect Coach Krzyzewski to use the same starting lineup during the Olympics that he employed during the FIBA Americas tournament; Kidd only ended up playing 15.9 mpg because Team USA won so many blowouts but I think that it is important to start the game with a group that has played together before in FIBA competition. This is not some All-Star exhibition in which Team USA can rotate who starts. Paul may end up playing more minutes than Kidd, particularly if Team USA builds big leads, but I would be surprised if Coach Krzyzewski changes his starting lineup.

The main early criticism of the 2008 roster is the supposed lack of big men but I disagree with that assessment. Chandler hardly played at all in the 2007 FIBA Americas tournament and although Stoudemire rebounded well he was not much of a defensive presence (six blocked shots in 10 games). Boozer and Bosh should be more than able to replace them, so this team is deeper and more versatile up front than the 2007 squad. Furthermore, the most effective style of play for Team USA in FIBA events is to go small, play pressure defense, force turnovers and score in the open court. Carmelo Anthony and LeBron James can easily play power forward in such a lineup, so on this team they are essentially "bigs" also. As for the perimeter players, Billups and Miller were two of the least productive members of the 2007 team, so it is difficult to believe that there will be any drop off by replacing them with Paul and Wade.

Thus, the 2008 team should be even better than the 2007 squad, though it is also true that the competition at the Olympics will be much tougher than the competition at the FIBA Americas tournament.

Anthony will almost certainly be Team USA's leading scorer. He feeds off of the open court scoring opportunities provided by the pressure defense of Bryant, Kidd and James and he is also a tough cover in the half court for most FIBA forwards. If anything, Anthony plays even worse defense in FIBA competition than he does in the NBA but he is such an efficient scorer--and the other four starters defend so well--that his offensive output outweighs his defensive liabilities (which was not the case in the 2004 Olympics, when Bryant and Kidd were not on the team and James did not defend nearly as well as he does now).

Some quotes from Anthony and Wade give an indication of why they failed to lead the 2004 and 2006 teams to gold medals. Anthony said that he joined the 2004 team expecting to have "some of the best workouts in the summertime with the best players in the world" and he assumed "the USA is supposed to win everything." Wade candidly admitted that being an Olympian had never been a dream of his, adding, "I didn't have a clue what I was getting into...Now, we respect the game so much. We respect the team basketball that they play internationally so much." You don't have to read too far between the lines to understand that in 2004 Anthony and Wade underestimated the competition that they faced and did not realize how much hard work and intensity would be necessary to win the gold medal. Now, they know better and the team has a much better leadership structure--with Bryant and Kidd on board no one will be taking any shortcuts in practice or at the defensive end of the court (well, Anthony probably will still take some shortcuts there but the team can survive that as long as he keeps shooting over .600 from the field).

The prevailing myth about Team USA's failure to win gold medals in the 2002 FIBA World Championship, the 2004 Olympics and the 2006 FIBA World Championship is that a lack of outside shooters proved to be fatal. However, as I demonstrated in a September 4, 2007 post titled The Real Story Behind Team USA's Losses in Previous FIBA Events, what really killed those teams was poor defense, particularly regarding the short three point shot (20'6" as opposed to 23'9" in the NBA) that FIBA teams love to launch. It is absolutely vital that Team USA shut down the three point shooters on opposing teams and that they do so without leaving the lane open to cutters; shooting well from the three point line would certainly be a nice bonus but perimeter defense will be the linchpin of Team USA's success. Good perimeter defense will fuel transition offense that will result in open three pointers and fast break dunks; the gaudy field goal percentage posted by Team USA in 2007 was largely the result of great defense leading to high percentage scoring opportunities in transition.

Labels: Carlos Boozer, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Dwight Howard, Dwyane Wade, Jason Kidd, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Michael Redd, Tayshaun Prince

posted by David Friedman @ 4:28 AM

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Bryant Leads Lakers to First Western Conference Finals Berth Since 2004

Kobe Bryant had 34 points, eight rebounds and six assists as the L.A. Lakers beat the Utah Jazz 108-105 to advance to the Western Conference Finals for the first time since 2004. Bryant scored 12 points in the fourth quarter--all of them in the last 4:54, including six straight free throws in the final 2:12--as the Lakers held off a furious late rally by the Jazz that featured a barrage of five three pointers in the closing 2:33 of the game. Each team placed all five starters plus one reserve into double figures in scoring but the difference for the Lakers, as it has been all season, is that they have Kobe Bryant and their opponents do not. Bryant showed little sign of being hindered by the back spasms that slowed him down during game four and affected him slightly in the fourth quarter of game five. Pau Gasol had a nice game (17 points, 13 rebounds, four blocked shots) and his length and mobility frustrated the Jazz at both ends of the court. Derek Fisher had a very efficient--or should I say "e-Fish-ent"?--performance, scoring 16 points on 4-5 field goal shooting and 7-8 free throw shooting. Even though Deron Williams finished with good numbers (21 points, 14 assists), Fisher made him work for everything he got and helped hound Williams into 9-21 field goal shooting--and an extra couple misses are huge in a close game like this one. Carlos Boozer had a game-high 14 rebounds but he only scored 12 points on 5-16 field goal shooting and the All-Star power forward watched the final 4:34 of the game from the bench after he fouled out.

With this victory, the top seeded Lakers accomplished something that number one seed in the East Boston and number two seed in the West New Orleans both failed to do: close out a tough series with a road victory in game six. Prior to the game, Lakers Coach Phil Jackson told his team, "Play with controlled abandon, all right? So you are playing hard, but you are under control. Let your instincts carry you to what you have to do--you've been trained in how to run this offense. Run the floor and follow your instincts. You know how to do that." The blending of preparation and instinct in basketball is very interesting, as Jackson suggests: a basketball team practices certain skills and actions in order to hone its players' instincts so that in crucial situations they will react properly and make the correct plays. Jackson's message to his team reinforces the idea that the players should feel confident that they can and will make good plays because they are well prepared to do so.

The Lakers took command right from the start, opening the game with a 7-0 run and leading by as many as 16 points in the first quarter. Utah cut the margin slightly to trail 33-20 by the end of the quarter. Bryant had 10 points and one assist in the opening stanza. He sat out the tail end of the first quarter and the first 3:45 of the second quarter but the Lakers still led 40-28 when he returned to action. He immediately faced up Matt Harpring, drove to the hoop, drew a foul and sank two free throws. As Hubie Brown put it, Harpring defends Bryant by "smacking him around," while Ronnie Brewer slides his feet and uses his athletic ability to try to stay in front of him and Andrei Kirilenko slides his feet, tries to stay in front of Bryant and then goes for the shot block. "What they (the Jazz) do," Brown explained, "is run these three different people at Kobe every quarter and force him into adjustments. Now, I would say, he is adjusting pretty good when he is scoring 33 a game and shooting 50 percent (from the field)...He is averaging 15 and a half free throws a game because he can beat anyone off the dribble to the rim and he can finish. More importantly, he will take the physical punishment to get the 15 free throw attempts."

On the next possession, Bryant again blew past Harpring and drew a foul. Brown said, "That is a smart offensive player being played by someone who is trying to intimidate him with physical play...Kobe set him up by calling for the pick and roll: no way was Kobe coming off that screen into the middle. He wanted that isolation on the baseline because after two bounces he's ahead of Harpring."

Bryant's ability to get by Harpring--and just about anyone else--at will opens up easy scoring opportunities for his teammates, which is why I keep saying that players should not be evaluated solely by their statistics but rather by their skill sets. Of course, doing that requires judgment and understanding about basketball that most people don't possess, which is why they rely too heavily on statistical crutches that should be used to buttress a skill-set based evaluation and not as the primary means of ranking players. For instance, Odom is thriving in his role as the third option in the Lakers' attack behind Bryant and Gasol but some people look only at his numbers and erroneously elevate how good he really is. After Bryant scored on the two previous possessions by easily driving around Harpring, the Jazz sent a trap at Bryant when he got past Harpring the next time down the court--and Bryant slickly fed Odom for an easy dunk. Odom's scoring average and field goal percentage are helped by playing with Bryant and Gasol. Sure, it could be said that Bryant and Gasol are also helped by playing with Odom--it is obviously better to play with skilled players than unskilled players--but anyone who watches basketball with understanding realizes that Bryant and Gasol help Odom more than he helps them. Brown said, "You cannot turn your head (defensively) when Bryant or Gasol have the basketball" because they will make great passes to cutters.

Fisher turned a steal into a three point play and then the Lakers got a stop, filled the lanes well and Fisher found Bryant for a double pump, two handed dunk during which he took off from outside the semicircle that designates the restricted area for block/charge calls. "By the way, the back is OK," Brown exclaimed after that play. "It looked like he came off a trampoline."

A bit later, the Lakers ran a great set out of a timeout, with Gasol setting a screen for Bryant at the top of the key and then rolling to the hoop. Bryant accepted the trap and fired a bounce pass that would make Steve Nash or Chris Paul proud and Gasol had an easy dunk that put the Lakers up 52-35. Bryant and Tracy McGrady are the only shooting guards in the NBA who possess the necessary passing skills to lead the NBA in assists. Of course, neither of them will ever do that because their primary skill is the ability to score the ball and they are more valuable to their respective teams doing that but their extraordinary passing skills amplify their ability to score because defenses have to account for that aspect of their games, particularly when Bryant and McGrady are playing alongside people who can catch the ball and finish plays. Bryant made an even better pass a couple possessions later, a pinpoint behind the back feed to Gasol, but Gasol did not go up strongly and C.J. Miles stripped the ball; Gasol had a good series overall but one problem he had against the Jazz was that he often did not protect the ball well enough against Utah's scrappy, physical defenders.

Utah made a small run to cut the lead to 56-43 but Fisher closed the quarter with six straight points: he hit a three pointer and then he sank three free throws after Williams fouled him on a three point attempt just before the halftime buzzer. Utah got no closer than 80-66 in the third quarter and a couple field goals by Bryant in the last 1:40 made the score 86-70 heading into the fourth quarter. The Jazz relentlessly chipped away at the lead in the fourth quarter, with Paul Millsap doing the bulk of the work with his inside power game; he scored 10 points in the first 5:37 of the quarter to help Utah get within 91-82. A minute later, two Harpring free throws made the score 93-86 but the last five minutes of the game belonged to Bryant. His three pointer pushed the lead back to 10. "That's what he does best," Brown said. "It's amazing how he can put a dagger in your heart." Bryant then nailed an amazing, double clutching fade away bank shot while Harpring fouled him; the resulting free throw put the Lakers up 99-86 but the resilient Jazz were not done yet. Williams made a runner and the Lakers had three empty possessions in a row: an Odom shot that was blocked by Millsap and turnovers by Odom and Gasol. Williams' three pointer at the 2:33 mark made the score 99-91. In the final two minutes, the Lakers answered Utah's three pointers with six Bryant free throws, plus two free throws by Odom and one free throw by Fisher. Fisher's missed free throw left the door open for Utah but the Jazz missed their last two three pointers, enabling the Lakers to beat the team that had the best home record in the regular season and move on to face the the winner of Monday's game seven showdown between San Antonio and New Orleans.

Labels: Carlos Boozer, Deron Williams, Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers, Lamar Odom, Pau Gasol, Utah Jazz

posted by David Friedman @ 10:52 PM

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Balky Back Slows Bryant as Jazz Beat Lakers in Overtime

Deron Williams had 29 points and 14 assists as his Utah Jazz beat the L.A. Lakers 123-115 in overtime to even their second round series at 2-2. Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur got off to slow starts, combining to score just five points on 2-12 field goal shooting in the first half, but they finished with 14 and 18 points respectively. Andrei Kirilenko added 15 points and he played strong defense, particularly late in the game when he blocked two shots by Kobe Bryant, who finished with 33 points, 10 assists and eight rebounds. Lamar Odom had an excellent game (26 points, 13 rebounds, three blocked shots) and Pau Gasol bounced back from his subpar game three to post 23 points, 10 rebounds and four assists. Derek Fisher scored 15 points and shot 4-5 from three point range.

Prior to the game, Hubie Brown talked about how exceptionally well Bryant is playing during the postseason. Brown said that in addition to the great numbers Bryant is putting up, his decision making is off the charts; Brown broke down 48 possessions from game three in which Bryant was the primary ball handler and determined that Bryant made only three questionable decisions. Bryant is just the fourth Laker to start a playoff series with four straight 30 point games; Jerry West (twice), Shaquille O'Neal (twice) and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar are the others. Bryant, a member of the elite "25-5-5" Club, is now the only player to ever have at least 30 points, six rebounds and six assists in five straight playoff games; Michael Jordan and Oscar Robertson each did this in four straight playoff games, though both of their streaks spanned two separate playoff seasons.

Unfortunately, we did not get to see Bryant's game in full flower because he injured his back early in game four and his condition got progressively worse, robbing him of his usual quickness and explosiveness; he made 11 of his first 20 shots before connecting on just 2 of his last 13 attempts. If you like Bryant then you will say that he gamely tried to take over down the stretch despite being hurt; if you don't like Bryant then you will say that he selfishly forced the action. Lakers Coach Phil Jackson, who certainly has not minced words in the past when he felt that Bryant should play differently, offered an interesting take on what happened in the overtime: "I was angry at his teammates for dropping the ball off in his lap when he was in the situation he was at (with his back injury). When he was making plays and we had things going at the end of the fourth quarter that was what we wanted to see him doing. I felt guys just bailed out on him." In other words, Gasol, Odom and the rest of Bryant's supporting cast have to step up and carry some of the weight, too--particularly when Bryant is clearly not 100%--instead of relying on him to do everything by himself.

Before delving fully into how the game ended, let's take things in order and examine what happened in the first three quarters. Just like in game three, Fisher picked up two quick fouls and had to sit out for most of the first quarter. Fisher cannot stop Williams but they were teammates last year and the crafty, physical Fisher is at least able to make things difficult for Williams. Without Fisher on the court, Williams is able to completely abuse Jordan Farmar, whose -19 plus/minus number in just 18:43 of playing time was nine points worse than any other player in this game. The Lakers' bench has been highly praised this season but Utah's reserves outscored them 39-16 in game four; this is another example of how regular season statistics can be misleading without the proper context. I am not really interested in how many points the Lakers' reserves racked up at the end of blowout victories against weak teams, but most statistical ranking systems don't account for when and how a player gets his numbers; I evaluate players based on their skill sets and their strengths and weaknesses. The Lakers have some solid bench players but this group is not as awesome as some people would lead you to believe and that becomes very evident when Utah brings in guys like Matt Harpring, Paul Millsap and Kyle Korver; the first two are tough-minded, physical players who push the Lakers around, while Korver is a deadeye marksman.

With Williams running wild, the Jazz raced to a 31-21 lead by the end of the first quarter. During the little interview segments between quarters, Jackson summarized his team's problems succinctly: "We have to get some production out of our bench." I don't mean to say "I told you so"--well, actually maybe I do--but I've been saying all season that the Lakers' bench is not as good as it is cracked up to be. The Lakers' Western Conference-leading record is a product of, in order, Kobe Bryant's brilliance, Pau Gasol's versatility, Lamar Odom fitting in as the third option much better than he did as the second option and Derek Fisher shoring up the point guard position. Also, Andrew Bynum made a solid contribution during the first 35 games of the season. Sasha Vujacic has had some good moments, Farmar has improved since last year and the bench was bolstered when Luke Walton was moved from the starting lineup to a reserve role, but the Lakers' reserves have benefited from playing while ahead in most games and they also often have either Bryant or Gasol on the court with them. Head to head against the reserve units from other elite teams they will consistently have problems.

Of course, one factor in game four is that reserve players tend to perform worse on the road than at home and a second factor is that the Lakers' bench took a hit when Ronny Turiaf--the primary big player on the bench and a player who provides a lot of energy--was ejected because of a flagrant two foul at the 10:07 mark of the second quarter. Ronnie Price drove to the hoop and Turiaf aggressively went for the shot block; the resulting contact sent Price tumbling hard to the court, where he banged his head with such force that he needed four stitches to close the gash above his left eye. Flagrant fouls are supposed to be determined by windup, impact and follow through, with contact above the neck area a definite no-no--but Turiaf's foul was a blow delivered directly to Price's arms in the area where Price was holding the ball; the tremendous size difference between the players is what caused Price to fall so fast and hit his head. There was no real windup or follow through and Turiaf neither hit Price in the head nor did he undercut him in midair. I could see this being called a flagrant one based on the impact but this play was definitely not worse than DeShawn Stevenson's blow to LeBron James' head or James Posey's clothesline of James on Sunday, both of which were determined to be flagrant one fouls.

Although Williams had a monster first half (19 points on 7-9 field goal shooting, five assists), the score was tied at 55 after Bryant caught a long inbounds pass from Walton right before the halftime buzzer and did his version of the famous Christian Laettner shot. Bryant had 17 first half points on 7-14 field goal shooting. Gasol (13 points, 6-9 shooting) and Odom (11 points, 4-6 shooting) were also in double figures. The Lakers seemed to be in prime position to take this game and assume a commanding 3-1 advantage in the series.

Bryant's back clearly got stiffer as the game progressed and Hubie Brown observed that Bryant started operating mainly in the low post area on offense as opposed to playing on the perimeter where he would have to move around more. When Bryant was on the perimeter he used his footwork and various fakes in order to get his defender off balance in order to create an opening to shoot the jumper. On one play, Bryant jab stepped to get Ronnie Brewer off balance and then drilled a jumper right in his eye. Brown commented, "That's difficult on the defender. Ronnie Brewer just shook his head. He (Bryant) stared you down and gave you that jab step move. If you do not move and he has space he will elevate and now he's feeling it." Bryant scored eight points in the quarter but the Lakers had trouble getting defensive stops and the Jazz led most of the way. Near the end of the quarter, Bryant drew the defense to him and passed to a wide open Gasol but Gasol stepped on the baseline. Bryant was visibly frustrated by this lapse in concentration and Brown said, "Gasol never created a passing lane. It's your job when I get double teamed to create the pass." That is an example of why Brown is such a great analyst; instead of giving some nonsense diatribe about Bryant's reaction Brown explained the technical reason why Bryant--the game's most fundamentally sound player--was upset: Bryant did his job by attracting the defense to him and if Gasol had been more alert then he would have had an easy dunk. When you are trying to beat a good team on the road you simply have to convert those kinds of opportunities. Although Gasol's field goal percentage has been good in this series, at times he has been soft with the ball, enabling Utah players to get deflections and steals. Gasol has spent a lot of time whining about these plays and Jackson has publicly said that this has affected Gasol's concentration. Gasol's skills and versatility are secondary considerations down the stretch of competitive playoff games if he is not going to have a tough enough mindset to complete plays. It is pretty easy to see both why Gasol has been able to put up good numbers during his career and why he had never won a single playoff game until teaming up with Bryant on the Lakers.

The key moment in the game took place with :48 left in the third quarter. The Lakers trailed 76-73 and Jackson took Bryant out of the game so that Bryant would get the extra rest during the timeout between quarters; this is a normal move but the difference this time is that Bryant was clearly laboring with a stiff back. I think that Jackson should have considered leaving Bryant in the rest of the way. Sure, there is a chance that Bryant could have fatigued down the stretch but it was nearly certain that after five or 10 minutes (in real time) on the bench that his back would tighten up more than it would if he kept playing. The worst case scenario for the Lakers took place: the bench, even with Odom on the court as an anchor, let the Utah lead balloon to 90-80 and Jackson had to put Bryant back in at the 9:04 mark of the fourth quarter. Kyle Korver scored eight points in less than four minutes with Vujacic guarding him; the gimpy Bryant held him scoreless the rest of the way until Korver made some free throws to ice the game near the end of the overtime.

Not only did the deficit quickly climb with Bryant out of the game but when Bryant came back he obviously had become much stiffer and less mobile. Brown almost immediately said, "You can see there's no quickness in Kobe's game." Bryant adjusted to his limitations by taking on the role of facilitator. With the Lakers trailing 92-84, he snared a defensive rebound and fired a long outlet pass to a wide open Walton but Walton went up softly, enabling Price to do a Tayshaun Prince imitation and swat his shot. The Lakers retained possession but Odom missed a jumper and the Jazz scored to go back up by 10. In the first three games, Bryant relentlessly drove to the hoop and either scored or drew fouls but after he came back in the game in the fourth quarter he had great difficulty getting all the way to the rim--but he managed to be just active enough with his dribble to draw double teams and then pass to the open man, racking up six assists in the fourth quarter as the Lakers rallied from a 12 point deficit to eventually force an extra session. Bryant assisted on three Fisher three point shots during a 1:17 stretch and he assisted on an Odom three pointer that tied the score at 106 with :54 remaining. After two Boozer free throws made the score 108-106, Odom missed a three pointer but Gasol got the rebound and the Lakers called timeout. Odom inbounded to Bryant, who got to the rim but did not have his normal elevation; his layup attempt rolled out, but Boozer had stepped over to contest the shot, which gave Odom room to slip through and tip in the miss. On Utah's last possession during regulation, Fisher correctly anticipated Williams' step back move and blocked his jumper as time expired.

Bryant missed his first four shots in overtime; two of them were three pointers and two of them were drives during which he had no lift and on both occasions Kirilenko swatted the ball as soon as Bryant released it. The Lakers did not score in overtime until Bryant converted a left handed drive at the 1:21 mark. They only trailed 112-110 at that point and they got a stop on the next possession but could not secure the defensive rebound. Kirilenko's three point play at :35 put Utah up five. Jackson drew up a nice inbounds play to free Bryant, who caught the ball and drove all the way to the hoop only to miss the layup. The Jazz shot 8-8 from the free throw line in the last :28 to seal the win.

Obviously, the primary concern for the Lakers heading into Wednesday's game five is the status of Bryant's back injury. However, the Lakers also have to address some matchup concerns that have cropped up in the past two games: Williams has gotten loose whenever Fisher is not in the game and Utah's frontcourt has been more physical and more aggressive than the Lakers' frontcourt in the second halves. The home team has won the first four games but these contests have been close in the fourth quarter so the Lakers better not just complacently assume that they will win game five simply because it is a home game.

Labels: Carlos Boozer, Deron Williams, Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers, Lamar Odom, Pau Gasol, Utah Jazz

posted by David Friedman @ 2:17 AM

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Big Performance by Boozer Powers Jazz to Victory

Carlos Boozer scored nine straight points for Utah in less than three minutes in the fourth quarter to help the Jazz hold off a late Lakers' rally in game three of their second round series. He finished with 27 points and tied a playoff career-high with 20 rebounds in Utah's 104-99 win. The Jazz also got good efforts from Deron Williams (18 points, 12 assists) and Mehmet Okur (22 points, seven rebounds, 4-7 three point shooting). Utah's three stars combined to shoot 26-47 from the field (.553) . Kobe Bryant got off to slow start but he ended up with a game-high 34 points plus seven assists and six rebounds; he shot 10-20 from the field and 14-17 from the free throw line. "He had a tremendous second half, took the game over and pretty much almost won it by himself because that's who he is and that's what he's done in his career," Utah Coach Jerry Sloan said of Bryant. Lamar Odom had 13 points and 12 rebounds, while Derek Fisher also scored 13 points but Pau Gasol had a very quiet game: 12 points, six rebounds, five turnovers; after the game, Lakers Coach Phil Jackson explained, "This is a game in which Pau was looking at the referees every time he got stripped there in the first half, feeling he got fouled."

The Lakers took a quick 6-0 lead after Fisher hit a jumper, Bryant fed Gasol for an easy hoop and Odom made a strong drive. Williams answered with a three pointer but after Bryant hit a couple free throws and Vladimir Radmanovic drained a three pointer the Lakers led 11-3, all five of their starters had scored and it looked like it might be a long night for Utah. It might sound odd to say that the turning point in the game happened at the 9:07 mark of the first quarter but after Fisher picked up his second foul at that time the entire tempo and tenor of the contest shifted. Jordan Farmar replaced Fisher and the Lakers lost all of their rhythm offensively and defensively; they began turning the ball over and Williams--who Fisher had done a pretty good job of containing in the first two games--started getting loose and making plays. The Lakers did not score for nearly four minutes after Farmar entered the game, a dry spell that ended when Bryant made a free throw after the Jazz committed a defensive three seconds violation--and then nearly a minute and a half passed before the Lakers scored again. Meanwhile, Utah went on a 10-1 run to take the lead and they were able to play from in front for most of the rest of the game.

Bryant took his customary rest at the start of the second quarter with the score tied 23-23. Jackson left Gasol and Odom in the game to play with three reserves but Gasol and Odom combined to commit three turnovers in the next 3:24 and the Lakers fell behind 32-27. Bryant reentered the game at that point but the Lakers' had lost any semblance of continuity while the Jazz had gained a lot of momentum; Boozer, Williams and Okur each were in a good flow after not having much success in the first two games in L.A. and once you let good players get their confidence going--particularly at home--it is difficult to reassert control over them. The Jazz led 51-43 at halftime. Boozer had 10 points, Williams had nine points and six assists despite suffering a wrist injury on his shooting hand that bothered him the rest of the game and Okur led all scorers with 12 points. Bryant had only eight points on 1-5 field goal shooting. ESPN's Mike Tirico asked Hubie Brown what the Lakers could do differently in the second half and Brown said drily, "Maybe they could get him (Bryant) the ball more often."

Of course, any time that Bryant only attempts five shots in a half there is probably going to be a Congressional investigation to unearth exactly why that happened. Asked about it after the game, Bryant replied that he was just reading the defense and getting the ball to the open man--the same thing that he always says because that is they way that he has been playing for years: great offensive players understand when to shoot, when to drive and when to pass. Bryant missed a couple shots in the first half that he normally makes, but other than that there was nothing unusual about how he played; I'm still trying to figure out why in both the pregame and halftime shows Jon Barry acted like he expects that at any moment now Bryant is going to stop playing team ball and simply start jacking up shots wildly. What went wrong for the Lakers offensively in the first half was that Fisher's early foul trouble disrupted their rhythm and altered their substitution patterns, plus the Jazz played defense more aggressively than they did in the first two games.

In his postgame comments, Bryant said that in the second half the Jazz stayed at home more on the Lakers' shooters, so he responded to that adjustment by aggressively driving to the hoop. Bryant had 14 points and three assists in the third quarter, shooting 6-8 from the field. During a timeout, ESPN played the clip from Bryant's MVP press conference when Jackson said, "I don't know anybody who has ever deserved this trophy more. I've never known anybody who has worked as hard to accomplish what he has accomplished in this game as Kobe has." Tirico asked Brown for his thoughts and Brown replied, "The coach knows your work ethic the best. It was great to hear him compliment him on that stage because that is going all over the world. It's good for young people to understand that he (Bryant) thanked his family because they allowed him the time away from home to get to that level."

After Bryant made six field goals in a row, the Jazz began trapping him more aggressively and Bryant responded by getting assists on consecutive possessions, first dishing to Luke Walton for an open jumper and then passing to Fisher for a three pointer that cut the Utah lead to 73-68. The problem for the Lakers was even though they finally got their offense going--mainly due to Bryant--they could not get enough stops to gain much ground. At the end of the quarter, Bryant drove to the hoop, drew the defense and made what Brown called "a gorgeous pass" to Ronny Turiaf for a layup and potential three point play but Turiaf missed the free throw; despite Bryant's offensive explosion, the Lakers only trimmed two points off of Utah's halftime lead and still trailed 79-72 going into the fourth quarter.

Bryant sat out the first 2:25 of the fourth quarter before Jackson hustled him back into the game after the deficit grew to 10; in five possessions without Bryant on the court the Lakers managed a layup by Walton, three turnovers and a missed three pointer by Farmar that he forced with plenty of time on the shot clock. People can cite all the regular season numbers that they want but I am not yet convinced that the Lakers' bench is truly a strength in the playoffs against good teams; the Lakers' best bench player so far in the playoffs has been Walton, who was often a starter in previous seasons, so I think that it is more accurate to say that the Lakers improved their starting lineup than anything else--Walton would never have been a starter on most playoff teams in the first place but he looked effective in that role relative to a couple other starters (Kwame Brown and Smush Parker) that the Lakers trotted out in recent seasons. Now the Lakers have replaced Brown with Gasol, Parker with Fisher and Walton with Radmanovic, so the Lakers actually have a legitimate playoff quality starting lineup as opposed to having three bench players masquerading as starters.

The Jazz briefly pushed the lead to 12 right after Bryant entered the game but then he answered with a three point play and the Lakers never trailed by double digits again the rest of the way. That three point play was interesting because it happened with Matt Harpring guarding Bryant on the perimeter. As I've emphasized previously, a major difference between Bryant and LeBron James is that Bryant must be guarded closely all the way out to beyond the three point line. That gives Bryant options that James simply does not have; in this case, Bryant took advantage of how close Harpring was playing him to sweep his arms through Harpring's, initiate contact to draw the foul and then make the jumper. Keep in mind that versus Boston James has shot 1-27 from the field outside of the paint--and Bryant has the skill and strength to make a long jumper while he is being fouled. Tim Duncan often uses this same move, although he is usually much closer to the basket when he does it. This is a great way to take advantage of a defender who is crowding you, particularly if you are an excellent free throw shooter like Bryant--but there is no need for a defender to get close enough to James outside of the paint for James to even have a chance to use this move.

Just like in the third quarter, Bryant carried the load (12 points, one assist) in the fourth quarter as the Lakers got into a nice rhythm offensively but they could not get enough stops, particularly in the paint--Boozer had 11 fourth quarter points and he did a lot of his damage at close range, including a killer sequence in which he split a pair of free throws, rebounded his miss and powered his way to the hoop for a layup that put the Jazz up 95-86 at the 4:40 mark. That came right after a remarkable sequence in which Bryant split a double team about 15 feet from the basket, jumped in the air, threw the ball off of the backboard, caught it and dunked it with two hands. Even Williams was awestruck: "That was an unbelievable play. I looked at (teammate) Jarron Collins and went, 'Wow!' And I was in the game. Sometimes you've got to give respect where respect is due." Bryant said of his improvisational move--which is reminiscent of a play that Tracy McGrady pulled off in an All-Star Game a few years back--"You know me. I'll try anything." The Lakers cut the lead to 95-92 at the 3:22 mark after Fisher split a pair of free throws but Boozer scored on the next three possessions to ice the game. The Lakers better hope that they have not awakened a sleeping giant in Boozer, because with his strength, footwork and shooting touch he can be a load for either Gasol or Odom to handle; Boozer inexplicably played without much confidence in the first round and in the first two games of this series but he seems to have his groove back now.

In the first two games, the Lakers took double digit leads only to be forced to survive fierce second half rallies and in this game the Jazz similarly withstood a strong Lakers' comeback from a double digit deficit. I never understood why there was any talk about the Lakers sweeping the Jazz; the first two games were competitive and Utah has the more physical team and the better overall roster even though the Lakers obviously have the best individual player. Each game in this series will be a struggle between Bryant and his pair of tall/finesse-oriented bigs (Gasol and Odom) versus Utah's deep and physical frontcourt; the other crucial matchup is Williams-Fisher, where the object for Fisher is not to produce better stats than Williams but rather to simply contain Williams to some extent and make him work for everything he gets. Bryant's production figures to be the one constant in this series, so the game by game outcomes will be heavily influenced by the finesse versus strength battle in the paint and the point guard duel. Another important consideration is that Utah plays much better at home than on the road, which is why it should have been obvious that after two close games in L.A. the Jazz were not going to lose both games at home. If the Lakers cut down on their turnovers and play a little tougher in the paint then they can win game four in Utah but otherwise this will turn into a six or seven game series.

Labels: Carlos Boozer, Derek Fisher, Deron Williams, Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers, Lamar Odom, Mehmet Okur, Pau Gasol, Utah Jazz

posted by David Friedman @ 3:14 AM

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38 Special: Lakers Ride Kobe Bryant's Scoring Outburst to a 109-98 Win Over Utah

Kobe Bryant's 38 points, seven assists and six rebounds in the Lakers' 109-98 game one win over the Jazz were actually only slightly above his playoff averages in those departments, an indication of just how high of a standard he has set for himself. Bryant shot 8-16 from the field and 21-23 from the free throw line, setting a franchise single game playoff record for free throws made. Pau Gasol chipped in nicely with 18 points, 10 rebounds and five assists, while Lamar Odom once again posted solid numbers (16 points, nine rebounds, three assists) as the third option. Ex-Jazz point guard Derek Fisher only scored five points but he had six assists and six steals while helping to force his counterpart and former teammate Deron Williams to shoot just 5-18 from the field, though Williams finished with 14 points, nine rebounds and nine assists. Mehmet Okur had 21 points and 19 rebounds and Carlos Boozer added 15 points and 14 rebounds as the Jazz outrebounded the Lakers 58-41; the Lakers overcame that deficit by holding the Jazz to just 36-95 field goal shooting (.379).

Bryant has become such a master of reading and reacting to various defensive alignments that Odom calls him "Kobe-wan Kenobi." Bryant saw opportunities to attack right from the start, so he scored 15 first quarter points while shooting 4-6 from the field and 6-6 from the free throw line. Despite Bryant's high efficiency scoring, the Lakers only led 25-24 at the end of the first quarter because the rest of the team shot poorly from the field.

Bryant took his normal rest at the start of the second quarter and Sasha Vujacic picked up the slack off of the bench, dropping in nine quick points. When Lakers Coach Phil Jackson helmed the Chicago Bulls he often liked to play Scottie Pippen alongside four reserves while Michael Jordan rested, ensuring that there was a steadying hand to anchor the bench players while they were on the court. Jackson now has the luxury of using Gasol in that role and Gasol assisted on two of Vujacic's field goals. Several of the Lakers' bench players have improved this season but those players also benefit from often being able to play alongside either Bryant or Gasol.

The Lakers led 34-28 when Bryant returned to action. Bryant promptly converted a three point play, scored a fastbreak layup and made a nice lob pass to Gasol for an easy score to put the Lakers up 41-28. By that time, Bryant had scored 20 points on 6-8 shooting from the field while the rest of the team had scored 21 points on 8-26 shooting from the field. The Lakers maintained that margin for the rest of the quarter and led 54-41 at halftime. Bryant had 24 points in the first half, shooting 6-8 from the field and 11-11 from the free throw line. Factor in his two assists and the extra defensive attention that he attracted and Bryant accounted for significantly more than half of the Lakers' offense.

In addition to Bryant's sterling offensive numbers, another thing that helped the Lakers to build and maintain their lead is that they forced a lot of turnovers and converted them into easy baskets; Bryant of course played a major part in that defensive effort, too. The Jazz took much better care of the ball in the second half, which in turn choked off the Lakers' transition game.

Utah is a very physical team that pounds the glass and pounds opposing players and that relentless pressure tends to wear teams down over four quarters, as we saw in the first round when the Jazz beat the Rockets into submission. In the second half, Bryant missed several jumpers that he normally makes but he also continued to take the ball to the hoop, absorb contact and make his free throws. Still, the Jazz chipped away at the lead and eventually they pulled to within 85-80. The Lakers desperately needed a score and Bryant provided it, drawing a foul and making both of his free throws.

The Jazz answered by closing to within 91-87, prompting Jackson to call a timeout to set up a beautiful play: Bryant ran a screen/roll with Gasol and the defenders naturally trapped Bryant, who passed to a cutting Gasol, who drew a defender and then passed to a cutting Odom, who scored and drew a foul (Odom missed the resulting free throw). That was a wonderful sequence to watch and it was made possible because the Jazz had to trap Bryant to get the ball out of his hands; if a less dangerous guard ran that play, the Jazz could respond differently and not compromise their defense in the paint. This is why assist numbers and PER and EFF only tell part of the story; it is essential to watch the action in order to see how the offense attacks and how the defense reacts.

On their next possession, the Lakers ran a similar action but Bryant's pass to the cutting Gasol was just a bit too fast and too high, resulting in a turnover. The next time the Lakers got the ball, Bryant drove to the hoop, attacking Boozer and drawing his sixth foul. Bryant split the pair of free throws to give the Lakers a three possession lead (94-87) with 3:28 remaining. Bryant missed a jumper and a layup the next two times that the Lakers had the ball, but Gasol slipped to the hoop behind Bryant and tipped in the missed layup to put the Lakers up 96-89. After Ronnie Brewer made one free throw the Lakers again ran the Bryant/Gasol screen play, this time ending up with Bryant threading the needle with a bounce pass that Gasol converted into a layup for a 98-90 lead. ABC's Hubie Brown said, "They've been wearing out that pick and roll on the left side in the second half and it was a great pass to a guy who made the catch and delivered for you." Each element of that play is important: you need an offensive threat like Bryant who must be trapped by the defense--and who is an excellent passer--and you need a big guy who is mobile enough to roll to the hoop and who has good enough hands to catch and finish.

Although many members of the media love to beat their established storylines into the ground, it is not accurate to say that Bryant has become more unselfish this season; he started making winning plays--shots and passes--in the playoffs and the NBA Finals years ago. The change is that now Bryant has someone with whom he can actually play the two man game--I realize that this is not the first time that I have made this point but it bears repeating because so many people are either unable or unwilling to acknowledge the simple truth that Bryant did not learn how to play the team game this year; he was the leading playmaker on three championship teams, so passing the ball effectively is not a new skill for him--the Lakers simply went through a period during which he did not have many good targets who were capable of receiving passes and finishing plays.

Bryant provided the coup de grace with less than a minute to go when he corralled a defensive rebound and whipped a Wes Unseld-like outlet pass to Gasol for an easy layup and a 101-90 lead. Keep in mind that Bryant and Gasol have developed their marvelous on court chemistry despite playing less than half a season together.

This was a very solid win for the Lakers but they can hardly afford to get complacent; after the Jazz stopped turning the ball over they essentially played even with the Lakers in the second half (trailing 57-55) and the Jazz murdered the Lakers on the glass throughout the game, grabbing 25 offensive rebounds. Of course, part of the reason that so many offensive rebounds were available is that the Jazz missed a lot of shots but Phil Jackson cannot be pleased that Utah's starting frontcourt of Boozer-Okur-Andrei Kirilenko outrebounded the Lakers' starting frontcourt of Odom-Gasol-Vladimir Radmanovic 39-22. The Jazz outscored the Lakers in the paint 56-52 and when Utah's players made the right reads in their offensive sets they often got easy baskets inside.

As the series progresses it will be very important for the Lakers' long and lean bigs to not get overpowered by Utah's stockier bigs. In my preview article about this series, I wondered how Phil Jackson would choose to deploy Gasol and Odom defensively. In game one, Gasol guarded Boozer while Odom checked Okur; I assume that Jackson wants to use Gasol's length against Boozer in the post while leaving Odom the task of chasing Okur around the perimeter and keeping him off of the boards (Odom did a much better job of the former than he did of the latter).

It will be interesting to see which adjustments Coach Jackson and Utah Coach Jerry Sloan make from game to game and how well their players implement these changes.

Labels: Carlos Boozer, Deron Williams, Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers, Lamar Odom, Mehmet Okur, Pau Gasol, Utah Jazz

posted by David Friedman @ 5:03 AM

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Lakers Snap Utah's Record Home Winning Streak

The Utah Jazz had not lost at home in 2008, tying a franchise record with 19 home wins, but the Lakers snapped that streak on Thursday with a convincing, wire to wire 106-95 victory. Playing without injured seven footers Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum, the Lakers relied on strong performances from Kobe Bryant (27 points, eight rebounds, seven assists) and Lamar Odom, who notched his fourth straight double double (21 points, 12 rebounds, six assists). Deron Williams led the Jazz with 26 points and 12 assists and he tied for second on the team with seven rebounds. Carlos Boozer also played well (23 points, 15 rebounds) but the Jazz never mounted a serious threat after the Lakers opened the game with a 20-7 burst punctuated by an Odom dunk, an Odom three pointer (assisted by Bryant) and a Bryant dunk.

From an analytical standpoint, the main story of this game is that Utah could not contain Bryant's dribble penetration, which consistently led to defensive breakdowns that resulted in scores for Bryant, easy baskets for Lakers' bigs or wide open three pointers (the Lakers shot 10-22 from three point range).

Watching the Lakers dominate this contest, my thoughts turned to an interesting question: How many times have Bryant and the Lakers been counted out this season by the "experts"? The first time was before the season even began, when some people suggested that perhaps Bryant would hold out or not play hard if the Lakers did not either trade him or acquire some better personnel. Of course, anyone who understands anything about Bryant realizes how absurd those thoughts are. Bryant scored 45 points in a hard fought, two point loss to Houston on opening night and then led the Lakers to victories against Western Conference powers Phoenix and Utah in the next two games. That pretty much put an end to any talk that Bryant would give any less than his best.

When Andrew Bynum emerged as the first Lakers post player who can consistently catch and finish since the Shaquille O'Neal trade, the Lakers steadily moved up the Western Conference standings. Bynum was hardly dominating--his statistics (13.1 ppg, 10.2 rpg, 2.1 bpg) essentially match what Zydrunas Ilgauskas does for Cleveland (13.5 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 1.7 bpg), with Bynum shooting better from the field and Ilgauskas shooting better from the free throw line--but he did enough to convince some people that he is more valuable than Bryant. That notion is amusing to anyone who actually watched the Lakers play and understood that a substantial portion of Bynum's offensive production resulted from all of the defensive attention that Bryant attracts. Yes, Bynum displayed the rudiments of a back to the basket post game as the season progressed but for the most part he feasted off of lobs and offensive rebounding opportunities that came about precisely because the defense could not afford to focus on him as long as Bryant was on the court.

After Bynum got injured, the "experts" wrote off the Lakers for the second time this season, saying that in the tough West the Lakers would struggle to make the playoffs. Instead, Bryant shouldered more of the offensive load and the Lakers went 5-5 in the first 10 games that Bynum missed. That mark included losses to Phoenix, San Antonio, Dallas and Detroit, the latter three on the road. Bryant averaged 35.3 ppg and 8.8 rpg while shooting .558 from the field in the last six games of that stretch, during which the Lakers went 3-3, including a road win in Toronto when Bryant scored 46 points and a one point loss in Detroit when Bryant scored 39 points. Despite being without Bynum for those 10 games the Lakers still had a 30-16 record, the sixth best mark in the league.

Enter Pau Gasol. Adding the one-time All-Star to a team that just 10 games earlier the "experts" said would not even make the playoffs turned the Lakers into a powerhouse. They went 14-3 in the next 17 games and moved into first place in the West. Then Gasol sprained his ankle during a win over Toronto and the "experts" wrote off the Lakers for a third time, declaring that a four game road trip to New Orleans, Houston, Dallas and Utah would send the Lakers plummeting in the standings. Instead, Bryant averaged 29 ppg in 42.5 mpg and led the Lakers to a 2-2 record, good enough to keep the Lakers on top of the standings in the West. The formula for top teams is to win half of their games on the road and at least 75% of their games at home, a combination that results in more than 50 wins overall.

Are the Lakers as good without Bynum and Gasol as they are with them? Of course not. Can they win the championship without both of those players? Of course not--it is far from certain that they would win a seven game series against the Spurs even with those guys and 100% certain that they would not win such a series without them. However, that does not change the fact that Bryant is without question the driving force behind the Lakers' success. Al Jefferson is far more productive than Bynum--how well is his team doing? What track record of sustained success does Gasol have prior to playing with Bryant? Bynum and Gasol are good players who definitely ease the load on Bryant by providing size, length and skill in the paint but Bryant also eases the load on them by attracting extra defensive coverage.

Here is a good thought experiment: give Gasol and Bynum to Steve Nash and give Shaq and Amare to Bryant. What do you think would happen to each of those teams? Or give Gasol and Bynum to Ginobili/Parker in exchange for Duncan and either Kurt Thomas or Fabricio Oberto. How would that turn out? The answers to these questions should be painfully obvious but based on the way that the "experts" keep counting out Bryant and the Lakers apparently the answers are not so obvious.

It will be fascinating to see how all of this pans out in the MVP voting. For the past two seasons we have heard that Bryant was essentially disqualified from winning the award because his team did not win 50 games. So unless the Cavs go 11-2 the rest of the way then LeBron James is disqualified this year, right? Meanwhile, Bryant's Lakers have the best record in the West even though Bynum has only played in 35 games and Gasol has only played in 18 games as a Laker. Chris Paul has been mentioned a lot recently as an MVP candidate and some people say that Paul does not have as good a supporting cast as Bryant. Paul's All-Star big man, David West, has averaged 19.8 ppg and 9.2 rpg in 61 games and his other top big man, Tyson Chandler, has averaged 11.6 ppg and 12.3 rpg in 64 games. One could certainly make the case that they form a better duo than Gasol and Bynum do but even if you think that Gasol and Bynum are better they have only played half as many games as the Hornets' big men have--and the Lakers' two top big men have not even spent one second on the court together! While we are talking about supporting casts, it is worth mentioning that New Orleans' third leading scorer, Peja Stojakovic, is a three-time All-Star who finished fourth in MVP voting once and who currently ranks sixth in the league in three point shooting percentage. Injuries slowed Stojakovic the past couple seasons but he is healthy now and does not turn 31 until June.

LeBron James and Chris Paul are wonderful players. I'd rank James just behind Bryant and I'd put Paul third, albeit some distance behind Bryant and James. However, using the criteria that led to Steve Nash and Dirk Nowitzki winning the past three MVPs, it is hard to understand how Bryant could not win this year's MVP. Kevin Garnett perhaps merits mentioning but he is essentially playing the role this season that Detroit's Chauncey Billups played in 2005-06; he is the best player on the team with the best record but that team has multiple All-Stars, which resulted in Billups and Garnett not posting individual numbers that stack up with what the other MVP candidates are doing.

Labels: Carlos Boozer, Deron Williams, Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers, Lamar Odom, Utah Jazz

posted by David Friedman @ 6:54 AM

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