20 Second Timeout

Playoffs Begin With Two Competitive Games Followed by Two Blowouts

A seven game series can have many twists and turns but history shows the importance of winning game one. Either the higher seeded team protects home court advantage with a game one victory en route to advancing or else the lower seeded team takes the initiative by immediately seizing home court advantage; even if a series ultimately goes the distance, the significance of taking a 1-0 lead should not be underestimated.

Here are some bullet points about the first four game ones of the 2013 NBA playoffs:

New York Knicks 85, Boston Celtics 78

1) Carmelo Anthony got off to a sizzling start--10 points on 4-4 field goal shooting--as his Knicks took a 12-6 lead but he shot just 2-11 from the field in the rest of the first half. It looked like Anthony's game was heading south--as it so often does at this time of year--and that he was going to shoot his team out of contention--as he so often does at this time of year--but Anthony finished very strongly: he stole the ball and drove coast to coast for a layup that put the Knicks up 81-76, he hit a deep two pointer to extend the lead to 83-76 and he made a slick feed to Kenyon Martin for a dunk that pushed the margin to 85-78. Anthony finished with a game-high 36 points on 13-29 field goal shooting; he also had six rebounds--second on the team to Martin's nine--and he swiped a game-high four steals.
2) The Celtics led 53-49 at halftime and 70-67 after the third quarter but the wheels fell off for them in a nightmarish, record-setting fourth quarter; the Celtics scored just eight points--a franchise record low for the fourth quarter of a playoff game--on 3-11 field goal shooting and they committed eight turnovers. Coach Doc Rivers has a very good defensive game plan and the Celtics executed it well--New York shot just .405 from the field--but without injured All-Star point guard Rajon Rondo it will be difficult for the Celtics to score enough points to win four games in a playoff series. All of the fools who suggested that the Celtics are better off without Rondo should be forced to watch that fourth quarter on a continuous loop until they admit that they know nothing about basketball--and if the Spurs-Lakers series goes the way that I expect it to go then that same line will apply, replacing Rondo's name with Kobe Bryant's. "Stat gurus," media members and fans often fail to understand the importance of having a perimeter player who creates shots for himself and for his teammates. A team may survive for a short period of time in the regular season without such a player but in the long run--particularly against strong competition--a team that has a limited ability to create open shots is going to struggle mightily.
3) Jason Kidd had eight points on 2-6 field goal shooting plus five rebounds, three assists and three steals. I am not sure what those numbers mean in "advanced basketball statistics" but I know that Kidd has had a transformative effect on a franchise that for many years has lacked direction and focus. It is no coincidence that Anthony and Sixth Man of the Year candidate J.R. Smith are finally displaying semblances of maturity and it is no coincidence that the Knicks now show some interest in defense and it is no coincidence that the Knicks are now a low turnover team. Does Kidd deserve credit for all of those changes? No--Coach Mike Woodson and center Tyson Chandler have had an important impact as well--but Kidd has a long history of improving teams, including Team USA and the 2011 NBA champion Dallas Mavericks. Kidd's disruptive defense played a major role in Boston's fourth quarter meltdown and his willingness/ability to get the ball to Anthony in prime scoring position has made Anthony less apt to veer off into kamikaze, one on one solo operations while four teammates watch him pound holes into the court with his dribbling.
4) The Knicks have the horses and should win this series but it should be emphasized that the Celtics have a very good defensive game plan; they contained New York three point shooters not named Anthony (5-19, .263) and for the most part they made Anthony take tough, contested shots. If the Celtics can limit their turnovers and figure out how to score more than 90 points then they could make this series very interesting.

Denver Nuggets 97, Golden State Warriors 95

1) This was supposed to be an ABA-style 125-120 shootout but it took a high scoring fourth quarter (31-26 Golden State) just for the teams to get close to triple digits.
2) The Nuggets ranked first in the league with 58 points per game in the paint, the highest such average since 1996-97, and they outscored the Warriors in the paint 52-40--including Andre Miller's game-winning layup as time expired.
3) The 37 year old Miller said that he had never made a game-winning shot before at any level, let alone in the NBA playoffs. He finished with a game-high 28 points on 11-16 field goal shooting in just 27 minutes. Miller has an uncanny ability to score in the paint for someone who is not that tall (6-2) and does not have a great vertical leap; his game is all about craftiness, footwork, angles and changing pace: he still has some quickness but the way he gets his shot off is by changing speed and getting his defender off balance.
4) Stephen Curry had an inauspicious playoff debut--missing his first nine field goal attempts--before bouncing back to finish with 19 points on 7-20 field goal shooting plus nine assists and four rebounds.
5) During the telecast ESPN's Doris Burke called Andre Iguodala "the difference" and wondered what his plus/minus numbers were for this game; he only scored eight points on 2-4 field goal shooting but he contributed 10 rebounds, five assists and three steals while compiling a game-high +11 plus/minus number. Plus/minus statistics can be noisy--particularly in a small sample size--but in this case Burke is correct that Iguodala's all-around play had a significant impact on the result.

Brooklyn Nets 106, Chicago Bulls 89

1) TNT's Kenny Smith often refuses to analyze halftime highlights from blowouts and it is tempting to similarly dismiss this game in light of Chicago's lethargic effort.
2) The Bulls held their opponents to fewer than 100 points in 60 out of 82 regular season games but the Nets scored 89 points in the first three quarters alone before dialing things back a bit in the final stanza. It is not shocking that the Nets won a playoff game at home but it is shocking that the Bulls did not even compete.
3) Like the Celtics, the Bulls struggle to score at times because they are missing their All-Star point guard--in this case, 2011 NBA MVP Derrick Rose, who missed the entire regular season and will likely miss the playoffs as well. I thought that the Bulls would perform much better defensively against the Nets and that they would find a way to manufacture 90-95 points. The Bulls won three of four regular season meetings versus the Nets but regular season head to head numbers can sometimes be deceptive because of scheduling quirks, injuries and other contextual factors. I expected the Bulls to be more intense and better coached than the Nets but, obviously, right now my prediction does not look very good; we will soon find out if the first game was just an aberration or if the Nets really are the vastly superior team.
4) The Nets floundered during November but since the All-Star break Deron Williams (22 points, seven assists, three steals) and Brook Lopez (21 points, five rebounds, three blocked shots) have formed a powerful point guard/center duo.
5) If the Bulls can return to defensive form and capture game two then they will still be in good shape; as Chris Paul sagely noted when asked what he has learned about the NBA playoffs, the team that loses a blowout does not start out the next game down by that number of points.

L.A. Clippers 112, Memphis Grizzlies 91

1) The Kenny Smith rule could be applied to this game as well but at least Memphis was competitive for the first three quarters before falling apart in the final 12 minutes.
2) A definite pattern emerged on day one of the NBA playoffs: teams that lacked dynamic shot creators struggled to score enough points. The Celtics miss injured point guard Rajon Rondo, the Bulls miss injured point guard Derrick Rose--and the Grizzlies miss Rudy Gay, who they traded in the middle of the season. Without Gay, the Grizzlies lack a top notch perimeter threat and thus opposing teams can pack their defense in the paint; many squads may not have the necessary personnel to execute that game plan against the big, physical Grizzlies but in order to win a championship Memphis is going to have to defeat teams that do have such personnel.
3) The Grizzlies' normally first-rate defense gave up more than 100 points just 11 times during the regular season--and only gave up more than 110 points once--but the Clippers poured in 112 points on .554 field goal shooting. If the Grizzlies can tighten up their defense then they should be able to survive this series without Gay but--whether it is in this series or in a subsequent series--the Grizzlies will rue giving up their leading scorer for Tayshaun Prince, Ed Davis and Austin Daye; that trio scored eight points on 4-10 field goal shooting in 48 combined minutes versus the Clippers.
4) Chris Paul had a very efficient performance, scoring a game-high 23 points on 7-11 field goal shooting while dishing out seven assists (tying Marc Gasol for game-high honors in that department) and committing just one turnover.
5) The most surprising statistic from this game is that the Clippers outrebounded the Grizzlies 47-23; Gay would not have been a huge factor in that department and this is a category that the Grizzlies not only should control but that they must control to have any chance to win. Five Clippers grabbed between five and eight rebounds while only one Grizzly had more than five rebounds (Davis, six); the Clippers just collectively played with more energy and reacted to the ball more quickly, as opposed to taking advantage of one dominant big man controlling the paint. Marc Gasol (two rebounds in 41 minutes) and Zach Randolph (four rebounds in 25 foul-plagued minutes) both have to do a lot better in this category.

Labels: Andre Miller, Boston Celtics, Brooklyn Nets, Carmelo Anthony, Chicago Bulls, Chris Paul, Denver Nuggets, Deron Williams, Golden State Warriors, L.A. Clippers, Memphis Grizzlies, New York Knicks

posted by David Friedman @ 6:34 AM

2 comments

Avery Johnson is a Victim of Unrealistic Expectations

Avery Johnson won the Coach of the Month Award in November and the Brooklyn Nets fired him in December. Did Johnson suddenly forget how to coach? No, he is simply the latest in a long line of NBA coaches who are victims of unrealistic expectations held by owners and/or executives. It is not clear why so many people believe that the Nets as currently constructed should be a championship contender; I predicted that the Nets would finish seventh in the Eastern Conference and the 14-14 Nets are currently in eighth place in the East, right about where I expected them to be and right about where they probably will finish.

Maybe the Nets will throw a huge pile of money at Phil Jackson and perhaps the Zen Master can push the Nets up to the fifth or sixth seed--but, regardless of who is at the helm, this team lacks depth and is one injury away from possibly not even making the playoffs: the Nets went 2-5 when Brook Lopez sat out due to injury. Lopez is a good, solid big man but hardly a franchise player. What will happen to the Nets if Deron Williams or Joe Johnson miss a few games? Both former All-Stars are performing well below their usual standards but if either player is out of the lineup the Nets will be in serious trouble.

Williams is the person who looks the worst in this scenario; he talked his way out of Utah and convinced the Nets to build their franchise around him but he has regressed as a player, he publicly whined about his role (which may have contributed to Johnson being fired) and he has shown no indication that he is capable of being the best player on a championship contending team. The terms "franchise player" and "elite player" are very overused; at any given point in time, there are only a handful of legitimate franchise players in the NBA. In the past decade or so, franchise players who have led their teams to at least one NBA title include Shaquille O'Neal, Tim Duncan, Kobe Bryant, Dirk Nowitzki and LeBron James. The 2004 Pistons did not have an All-NBA First Team player but they had an ensemble cast of four All-Star caliber players and the 2008 Celtics similarly split up franchise player responsibilities among Kevin Garnett (who made the All-NBA First Team that season), Paul Pierce (who won the Finals MVP) and Ray Allen. Dwyane Wade went nuts in the 2006 NBA Finals after the Dallas Mavericks focused their defense on Shaquille O'Neal, who made the All-NBA First Team that season (Wade made the Second Team). Wade displayed franchise player qualities during that title run but he also presided over Miami's collapse once injuries and age prevented O'Neal from being consistently dominant. I have never considered Wade, even at his best, to be quite equal to James and Bryant at their respective bests, though I know that other people hold Wade in higher regard than that--but a lot of those people ended up looking silly when they kept insisting that Miami was still Wade's team even after James led the Heat in just about every important statistical category.

Right now, LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Kobe Bryant are the only full fledged franchise players in the NBA; James is the best player in the league, Durant is right behind him and Bryant--who was the league's best player for several years until James surpassed him late in the 2008-09 season--is still playing at a high enough level to lead a team to a championship (assuming that the Lakers actually put a healthy team around him). A fully healthy Dwight Howard is a franchise player but Howard is not fully healthy. Chris Paul is a great player but there have been very few franchise players who were barely six feet tall (Bob Cousy, Nate Archibald and Isiah Thomas). Russell Westbrook could be a franchise player if he improved his shot selection. It is way too soon to anoint Carmelo Anthony as a franchise player--though that has not stopped many people from doing so, much like many people prematurely praised Gilbert Arenas (I'll take the current version of Anthony over the 2007 version of Arenas but I will not take either of those players over the current versions of James, Durant or Bryant). Tim Duncan and Dirk Nowitzki used to be franchise players but age/injuries have knocked both players off of that pedestal (though Duncan is still very effective and Nowitzki will presumably return to All-Star or even All-NBA form once he is fully healthy again).

Anyone who understands the preceding analysis realizes that it is silly for the Nets to fire Johnson after 28 games; Williams is not a franchise player nor is he surrounded by a championship caliber supporting cast. Johnson's replacement, at least on an interim basis, is P.J. Carlesimo, a good college coach who has a .408 regular season winning percentage as an NBA head coach and has never won a playoff series. Carlesimo inexplicably played Kevin Durant out of position at shooting guard, a mistake that Scott Brooks immediately corrected after he replaced Carlesimo. If the Nets do not replace Carlesimo soon then their best case scenario is probably a first round loss as the eighth seed--and it is possible that they will miss the playoffs.

Labels: Avery Johnson, Brook Lopez, Brooklyn Nets, Deron Williams, Joe Johnson, Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, P.J. Carlesimo

posted by David Friedman @ 6:28 AM

7 comments

2012 Team USA Report Card

After the 2008 Olympics, I wrote a Team USA report card using the following methodology:

Players are listed in order of minutes played because that statistic provides a hint about Coach Mike Krzyzewski's evaluation...It should go without saying--but I'll say it anyway--that it is not meaningful to compare a player's numbers in 40 minute games played under FIBA rules with his numbers in 48 minute games played under NBA rules...

The grades listed below represent how well a particular player filled his respective role on the team; obviously, some players had bigger roles than others, so a bench player's "B" does not mean the same thing as a starter's "B." Production when games were close is given a heavier weight than production that took place after the victories were already well in hand.

I applied the same methodology when issuing these grades for Team USA's 2012 squad. Overall Olympic statistics for all 12 players are listed in parentheses after each player's name, while the three game elimination round statistics are provided right before the grades for each of the top six players in the rotation. Each player appeared in all eight Olympic games except for Anthony Davis, who did not play in Team USA's 99-94 win over Lithuania.

Kevin Durant (26.0 mpg, 19.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 2.6 apg, 13 steals, five blocked shots)

Durant led the Olympics in total points scored by one point (156-155) over Argentina's Manu Ginobili and he broke Spencer Haywood's 44 year old Team USA record for most points scored in a single Olympics; Durant finished second in scoring average to Australia's Patrick Mills, who poured in 21.2 ppg in his six games. Durant shot a blistering .523 from three point range but he only shot .417 (15-26) on two pointers; this is a reversal of his MVP performance in the 2010 FIBA World Championship, when he shot a still excellent .456 from three point range while shooting .632 (48-76) on two pointers. In the Olympics, Durant filled the role of designated long distance sniper, assassinating opposing teams as punishment for packing their defenders in the paint. Durant also played a very solid floor game, ranking second on the team in rebounding, second in steals and fourth in assists.

Elimination round statistics: 21.0 ppg, 6.0 rpg, .7 apg, .444 overall FG%, .438 3FG%

Grade: "A"

Chris Paul (25.8 mpg, 8.3 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 5.1 apg, 20 steals, zero blocked shots)

Paul led the Olympics in steals and ranked third in assists (second on the team behind LeBron James); as those numbers suggest, he did an excellent job both distributing the ball on offense and pressuring the ball on defense. This team did not need or expect him to score the way that he does in the NBA but, as usual, Paul was very efficient when he shot the ball (.510 field goal percentage, including .464 from three point range).

Elimination round statistics: 9.3 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 4.0 apg, .500 overall FG%, .455 3FG%

Grade: "A"

LeBron James (25.1 mpg, 13.3 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 5.6 apg, 11 steals, two blocked shots)

James was the consensus MVP of the Olympics, filling up all boxscore categories and proving to be a matchup nightmare on both ends of the court at all five positions; he played center in Team USA's deadliest lineup, a "small" unit featuring Durant at power forward alongside Kobe Bryant, Chris Paul and either Deron Williams or Carmelo Anthony. James shot .603 from the field, doing most of his damage in the paint; he shot just 6-20 (.300) from three point range. James led Team USA in assists while ranking third in scoring, rebounding and steals; his elimination round statistics--which include the first triple double by a Team USA player in Olympic competition--are even more impressive.

Elimination round statistics: 16.0 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 7.7 apg, .594 FG%, .250 3FG%

Grade: "A"

Deron Williams (18.0 mpg, 9.0 ppg, 1.5 rpg, 4.6 apg, four steals, one blocked shot)

Williams inexplicably struggled with his two point shot (10-27, .370) but he shot 13-32 (.406) on three pointers, had an even better assist/turnover ratio than Chris Paul and he averaged more minutes than any other bench player. Williams padded some of his numbers during a few of Team USA's blowout wins and he only played 10 minutes in the gold medal game.

Elimination round statistics: 10.0 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 3.0 apg, .348 FG%, .438 3FG%

Grade: "B-"

Carmelo Anthony (17.8 mpg, 16.3 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 1.3 apg, four steals, zero blocked shots)

Anthony bounced back to some extent from a subpar 2008 Olympics--when he shot just .422 from the field--but his numbers are tremendously skewed by his Team USA record 37 point shooting exhibition against an overmatched Nigeria team; in the other seven games, Anthony averaged 13.3 ppg while shooting .471 from the field and .382 from three point range--a solid performance but far short of the 21.2 ppg on .613 field goal shooting (including .578 from three point range) that Anthony produced during the 2007 FIBA Americas Championship when some people asserted that Anthony is a perfect fit as a stretch four in FIBA play. Anthony is a shoot first player--in both NBA and FIBA competition--who can rebound when he is so inclined but is indifferent at best defensively. When he shot well he provided instant offense but it is noteworthy that when the score was close he was often on the bench; he scored just eight points on 3-9 field goal shooting versus Spain in the gold medal game as Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Kobe Bryant and Chris Paul did the heavy lifting.

Elimination round statistics: 14.3 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 2.0 apg, .457 FG%, .381 3FG%

Grade: "B-"

Kobe Bryant (17.5 mpg, 12.1 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 1.3 apg, nine steals, zero blocked shots)

Bryant struggled with his two point shot (13-31, .419) but he connected at a .436 clip from three point range and he led the team in free throw shooting (.909, 10th in the Olympics and third among players who attempted at least 20 free throws). Other than his two point field goal percentage, Bryant did everything the coaching staff wanted and expected for him to do; Bryant ranked fourth on the team in scoring and steals, he still pressured the ball on defense, he still delivered points against top opposition when necessary and he was almost always on the court whenever the score was close late in the game. Bryant ranked second on the team in scoring during the elimination round games, including a team-high 20 points in the quarterfinal victory over Australia. Coach Krzyzewski drastically limited Bryant's minutes in blowouts, so Bryant did not have the opportunity to pad his numbers the way that some of his teammates did but Bryant performed very well in the elimination round and he finished his undefeated Team USA career (26-0 in three FIBA events, not including exhibition play during which Team USA was also undefeated with Bryant on the roster) with 17 points on 5-10 field goal shooting in the gold medal game. Bryant was clearly the lead dog on Team USA from when he joined the team in 2007 until very recently but he adjusted well to James' ascension as the best overall player on the team.

Elimination round statistics: 16.7 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 2.0 apg, .471 FG%, .522 3FG%

Grade: "A"

Kevin Love (17.0 mpg, 11.6 ppg, 7.6 rpg, .4 apg, two steals, two blocked shots)

Love's role significantly increased since 2010, when he only averaged 8.8 mpg in the FIBA World Championship. He carved out a nice niche for himself as a rebounder off of the bench, tying Pau Gasol for the overall tournament lead with 61 rebounds and pacing Team USA with a 7.6 rpg average. Love did not start a game but he had a bigger impact on the team than starting center Tyson Chandler. Love will likely never be as valuable or productive in FIBA play as he is in the NBA because he is not a mobile FIBA big man in the Pau Gasol/Luis Scola mold and he obviously does not possess the athletic gifts of Team USA FIBA big men LeBron James and Kevin Durant; Love earned his minutes by playing very hard and by relentlessly pursuing the ball.

Grade: "A"

Russell Westbrook (13.8 mpg, 8.5 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 1.6 apg, seven steals, zero blocked shots)

Westbrook had a much smaller role in the 2012 Olympics than he had in the 2010 FIBA World Championship when he ranked third on the team in scoring, assists and steals--but that is not a reflection on Westbrook as much as it is a reflection on just how deep and talented this squad was: the addition of James, Bryant and Paul--key members of the 2008 Olympic team who did not play for the 2010 FIBA World Championship team--understandably moved Westbrook further back in the rotation. Westbrook's main contribution during his limited minutes was to apply pressure defense against opposing point guards.

Grade: "B"

Andre Iguodala (12.1 mpg, 4.3 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 1.4 apg, five steals, five blocked shots)

Like Westbrook, Iguodala's role was vastly reduced compared to 2010; Iguodala started every game in the FIBA World Championship but that obviously was not going to happen with James and Bryant on the roster. Iguodala accumulated most of his numbers during garbage time but he was very effective whenever he played.

Grade: "A"

Tyson Chandler (11.3 mpg, 4.0 ppg, 4.0 rpg, .4 apg, three steals, four blocked shots)

Chandler's performance, though not quite as bad as his 2010 FIBA World Championship outing (when he not only lost the starting center role but eventually dropped completely out of the rotation), was mediocre at best. He rebounded adequately on a per minute basis but was not effective enough offensively or defensively to deserve significant playing time; he started every game and then promptly went to the bench either because he got into early foul trouble or just because Coach Krzyzewski preferred to use a better, more versatile player. In 2010, Chandler tied for fourth on the team in fouls committed despite only averaging 8.6 mpg and this time around he took advantage of slightly more playing time to raise his ranking to a tie for third in fouls committed. The ideal FIBA big man for Team USA--other than LeBron James and Kevin Durant--is Chris Bosh because of his mobility and versatility or Dwight Howard, who has a freakish combination of size, speed and agility; injuries prevented Bosh and Howard from playing, so Chandler inherited the center spot by default.

Grade: "C-"

James Harden (9.1 mpg, 5.5 ppg, .6 rpg, .8 apg, four steals, one blocked shot)

Harden had an excellent regular season, a very good playoffs and a forgettable NBA Finals but--short of injuries or foul trouble--there was no way that he was going to get into the rotation on this team. I gave Danny Granger an "I" for "incomplete" in my 2010 FIBA World Championship report card and Harden essentially filled the same garbage time role for this team.

Grade: "I"

Anthony Davis (7.6 mpg, 3.7 ppg, 2.7 rpg, zero assists, one steal, three blocked shots)

Davis, who could very well have a prominent role in the future for Team USA, served as the human victory cigar in the 2012 Olympics but this was a valuable experience for him that could yield dividends for both his NBA and FIBA careers.

Grade: "I"

Final Thoughts:

During the five game pre-Olympic exhibition tour, Coach Krzyzewski tinkered with his rotation but he used the same starting lineup throughout the Olympics: LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant, Chris Paul and Tyson Chandler.

The original, one and only Dream Team faced no serious competition in 1992--but just eight years later Team USA only beat Lithuania 85-83 in the Olympic semifinal round and only led France 76-72 with 4:26 left in the gold medal game before winning 85-75. Team USA failed to win the gold medal in the next three major FIBA events (2002 FIBA World Championship, 2004 Olympics, 2006 FIBA World Championship) before Jerry Colangelo got the program back on track; the additions of Kobe Bryant and Jason Kidd upgraded the backcourt defensively and provided the right championship mindset for the team. Coach Krzyzewski did not know the games of all of Greece's players nor could he figure out how to contain Greece's screen/roll actions in Team USA's 101-95 loss in the 2006 FIBA World Championship but that has turned out to be the only blemish in his FIBA coaching career. Team USA cannot just show up with any coach and any 12 players and expect to win FIBA events but Colangelo has put together a program that should be able to sustain success even as new players (and possibly a new coach) are brought on board in the future.

The conclusion from my 2010 Team USA report card is still valid and relevant today:

"While I enjoyed watching this team play, it is hilarious to read/listen to much of the mainstream commentary about FIBA play in general and Team USA in particular; we are consistently told that in order to win in FIBA events you have to have big men and you have to have shooters, despite the fact that both of these contentions have repeatedly been refuted: Team USA's winning recipe consists of stingy defense--particularly versus screen/roll plays and versus opposing three point shooters--forcing turnovers and scoring in transition. Team USA's halfcourt offense will never be as smooth or sophisticated as the halfcourt offenses of the other elite FIBA teams, true back to the basket big men are not as valuable as versatile, mobile forwards who can face the basket offensively and guard multiple positions defensively and the ability to hit three point shots is not nearly as important as the ability to defend against opposing three point shooters; reread the preceding sentence and you will understand why Michael Redd and Carlos Boozer hardly played for the 2008 version of Team USA and why Stephen Curry and Tyson Chandler reprised those players' respective roles on the 2010 version of Team USA--but I have no doubt that prior to the 2012 Olympics we will once again hear "experts" declaring how important it is for Team USA to add shooting specialists and big men to the roster."

****************
Further Reading

2008 Team USA Olympics Report Card

Kevin Durant Leads the Way as Team USA Wins FIBA World Championship for First Time Since 1994

Labels: Andre Iguodala, Anthony Davis, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, James Harden, Kevin Durant, Kevin Love, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Russell Westbrook, Tyson Chandler

posted by David Friedman @ 4:46 PM

2 comments

Bryant Emerges from Shooting Slump and James Has Historic Triple Double as Team USA Beats Australia

Team USA overcame yet another somewhat sluggish start to defeat Australia 119-86 in the quarterfinal round; this is the elimination stage of the Olympics and Team USA will face Argentina on Friday for the opportunity to play Russia or Spain in the gold medal game on Sunday. Kobe Bryant bounced back from a scoreless first half to score 20 points in the second half--and 12 of those points came in an outburst of four three pointers in 67 seconds during the fourth quarter, sealing the win by pushing Team USA's lead from 93-78 to 105-80 at the 4:43 mark. Bryant achieved his team-high point total on 6-14 field goal shooting after shooting just 14-36 from the field in Group A play. He also had three assists, tying for second best on Team USA, and he was an important presence defensively.

After the game, Coach Mike Krzyzewski effusively praised Bryant: "Not many people have achieved the excellence that he has, there are only a few. They take responsibility; they don't make excuses...he is one of the top-10 players of all-time, maybe one of the top-5 players of all time. He just keeps working. You would be amazed at the preparation he puts in for a contest and you just have to stick with him because he has produced five NBA championships and an Olympic gold medal for us and tonight he really broke out of his scoring slump. I like the fact that they (Australia) have great camaraderie but we do too. The way his teammates really went up for him and one of the great plays was when LeBron hit him in the corner with a rhythm pass and helping him get off. When he stole the ball a couple times, instead of going for layups the bench was saying 'shoot it again!' They have seen him do that. So I love that he has that support from his teammates."

While Bryant elevated his personal level of play, LeBron James demonstrated once again why he must be considered the best player in the world. James notched the first triple double in U.S. Olympic basketball history (assists have only been officially tracked in the Olympics since 1976, so we do not know if Oscar Robertson, Jerry West or someone else had a triple double before that year): James tallied 11 points, 14 rebounds and 12 assists, tying the U.S. Olympic single game record for assists also held by Phil Ford, Leon Wood and Michael Jordan. James is Team USA's best player, followed closely by Kevin Durant (who finished with 14 points and five rebounds). Bryant is number three--both on this team and in the NBA overall--but his propensity to rise to the occasion in clutch situations and his ability to impact a game at both ends of the court make him a crucial member of Team USA's roster even if his statistical imprint has at times been negligible. Deron Williams led Team USA with 13 first half points and he finished with 18 points, second only to Bryant. Carmelo Anthony (17 points) and Kevin Love (10 points, 11 rebounds) were the other double figure scorers for Team USA.

Patty Mills scored a game-high 26 points for Australia. He is the prototypical FIBA guard that gives Team USA fits: he is tough-minded, he can hit the three (he shot 4-9 from long distance versus Team USA) and he can drive to the hoop in the screen/roll game. Joe Ingles added 19 points and a team-high eight rebounds; it is worth noting that--even though Team USA's starting center Tyson Chandler had only two rebounds in just nine minutes--Team USA outrebounded Australia 52-42.

Australia took an early 8-5 lead after Mills drained his first two three pointers but Team USA eventually settled in defensively to go up 28-21 by the end of the first quarter. Team USA's defensive execution was also spotty at times in the second quarter but Deron Williams erupted for 11 points to help Team USA push the margin to 56-42 by halftime. Australia opened the third quarter with an 11-0 run and Team USA once again faced a competitive game in the second half, just like the previous contests versus Argentina and Lithuania. Bryant assisted on a three pointer by Durant and he tossed a lob to Chandler for an emphatic two handed dunk to give Team USA some breathing room and he later scored eight points in two minutes during a 9-2 run that gave Team USA a 70-58 lead. Australia hung tough the rest of the quarter and still were within striking distance (84-70) entering the fourth quarter.

The margin stayed around the 15 point range until Bryant's barrage of three pointers ended all resistance. Not long after that, Bryant and James headed to the bench, their work over for the night.

Labels: 2012 Olympics, 2012 Team USA, Australia, Deron Williams, Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Patty Mills

posted by David Friedman @ 2:05 AM

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Team USA Sleepwalks Early Before Routing Tunisia

Team USA defeated Tunisia 110-63 to become the only team with a 2-0 record in Group A but the final margin somewhat obscures how sloppily Team USA played for most of the first half, particularly their starting five. Team USA's bench players provided a huge energy burst and eventually blew the game open with a 25-3 run to begin the third quarter as Team USA's five starters watched from the bench. Individual and team statistics are inevitably somewhat deceptive during any game that features a significant amount of garbage time--and at least 15 of the 40 minutes of this contest largely consisted of Team USA players padding their stats with lob dunks and wide open three pointers--but, for the record, Carmelo Anthony and Kevin Love led Team USA with 16 points apiece. Anthony shot 6-6 from the field, while Love shot 6-9 from the field. Kevin Durant, the most productive starter, added 13 points and a team-high 10 rebounds. Anthony Davis scored 12 points, 10 of them coming on dunks. Russell Westbrook scored 11 points and swiped two steals. LeBron James only had five points, four assists and two rebounds in 19 minutes, while Kobe Bryant scored four points and committed three fouls in a team-low nine minutes. Starting point guard Chris Paul played a team-high 25 minutes and only scored two points, though he did have a game-high seven assists. Macram Ben Romdhane led Tunisia in scoring (22 points), rebounds (11) and assists (4) in a game-high 36 minutes. Mohamed Hadidane scored 11 points--and the pronunciation of his last name brings to mind the classic Doug E. Fresh track "La Di Da Di," which I am sure that Kenny Smith would have pointed out if this game had been telecast on TNT. Marouan Kechrid drilled three first half three pointers, providing flashbacks of the little known guards who caused nightmares in Team USA's FIBA losses in the early/mid 2000s, but he did not score in the second half.

Tunisia is the only one of the 12 Olympic teams that does not have at least one player with NBA experience but they led Team USA 15-12 at the 2:39 mark of the first quarter; Coach Mike Krzyzewski took the unusual step of replacing all five starters at the same time, bringing in Carmelo Anthony, Andre Iguodala, Kevin Love, Russell Westbrook and Deron Williams. After the game, Coach Krzyzewski denied that there was any particular significance to the mass substitution, saying that he simply wanted to experiment with different lineups during this game, but even if that is the case he could not have been very happy with how Team USA played during the first seven minutes versus Tunisia. Team USA's starters shot 0-6 from the three point line and--more importantly--they not only gave up several wide open three pointers but they also twice allowed Tunisian players to drive coast to coast for layups, which is simply inexcusable considering Team USA's huge advantage in athleticism. Team USA's reserves immediately went on a 14-0 run spanning the end of the first quarter--Team USA led 21-15 after the first 10 minutes--and the early moments of the second quarter. The starters lacked defensive intensity and awareness but the reserves forced two shot clock violations with their relentless pressure against Tunisia's ballhandlers.

Team USA's starters gradually returned to action early in the second quarter but they still looked sluggish and Team USA only led 33-25 when Kobe Bryant picked up his third foul at the 5:26 mark. Bryant went to the bench at that point and did not play for the rest of the game; I think that Coach Krzyzewski is wisely saving his oldest--and most decorated--player for games against the tougher teams, particularly in the medal round. Team USA built a 46-33 halftime lead. Tunisia shot 7-16 (.438) from three point range in the first half, including a missed desperation heave just before the halftime buzzer. Team USA shot just 2-12 (.167) from long distance in the first half but the problem was not so much the shooting percentage as the kind of shots that Team USA took; NBC's Doug Collins repeatedly emphasized that Team USA should never take a bad or contested shot because if they patiently swing the ball then they should be able to get a wide open shot. Far too many of Team USA's first half shots were rushed, contested attempts.

At halftime, Boston Celtics Coach Doc Rivers--serving as an NBC basketball analyst during the Olympics--made an interesting point: bench players will almost always perform well in games that they expect that their team is going to easily win because they know beforehand that they will receive a lot of playing time. It should also be noted that it is human nature for the starters to be a bit lackadaisical in such situations--but it is still disappointing that the starting unit, led by the NBA's three best players (LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant), played so listlessly and inattentively. One might assume that Coach Krzyzewski read the team--or at least the starters--the riot act at halftime but, according to Bryant, that was not the case at all. After the game, someone asked Bryant about how Coach Krzyzewski reacted during halftime and Bryant replied, "He was fine. He was good. The point that I wanted to make is that we needed to adjust and that we needed to stop switching so much. In the first half we switched a lot and I think because of it our defense was a little softer and gave them a lot more space. In the second half we came out and put bodies on bodies and put a lot of pressure on them."

Before the third quarter began, NBC's Craig Sager mentioned that the coaching staff informed him that Team USA would fight through picks instead of switching; this proved to be very effective, limiting Tunisia to 2-10 three point shooting (.200) in the second half. The same reserve unit that played so well in the latter part of the first quarter and throughout the second quarter started the third quarter for Team USA. That group scored the first nine points of the quarter and was largely responsible for the 25-3 run that turned the game into a rout.

Glancing at the final boxscore without watching the game could give one an inaccurate picture of why the game was relatively close at halftime and why Team USA pulled away in the second half. Tunisia finished with a .346 three point percentage (9-26) while Team USA shot .400 (10-25) from behind the arc but this was very much a tale of two halves and a tale of Team USA defensive pressure/Team USA shot selection. In the first half, Team USA played far too softly on defense, enabling Tunisia to shoot uncontested three point shots; Team USA compounded that mistake by jacking up three pointers early in the shot clock instead of driving to the hoop, collapsing the defense and then either passing for a dunk or kicking the ball to a wide open shooter. Things completely changed in the second half: Team USA pressured Tunisia all over the court and did not give up many open shots, while on offense Team USA played with much more patience and discipline, only shooting three pointers in rhythm after good ball movement. Those distinctions can get lost in the shuffle if someone only examines the game statistically as opposed to actually watching the game analytically and that is why I have consistently criticized the "stat gurus" who assert that it is not necessary--or even beneficial--to watch a game because the numbers tell the whole story. The numbers provide an outline but the complete story can only be written by someone who knows and understands the plot, someone who actually watched the story unfold.

Labels: 2012 Olympics, 2012 Team USA, Andre Iguodala, Carmelo Anthony, Deron Williams, Kevin Durant, Kevin Love, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Russell Westbrook, Tunisia

posted by David Friedman @ 10:48 PM

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Team USA's Quickness Overwhelms Great Britain

Team USA improved to 3-0 on their five game pre-Olympic exhibition tour with a 118-78 victory over Great Britain. Six Team USA players scored in double figures: Carmelo Anthony (19 points on 8-10 field goal shooting), Deron Williams (19 points on 7-8 field goal shooting), LeBron James (16 points on 7-10 field goal shooting, plus six rebounds, four assists and two steals), Russell Westbrook (15 points on 5-9 field goal shooting, plus a game-high nine assists), Kevin Durant (13 points on 5-12 field goal shooting) and Anthony Davis (11 points on 5-7 field goal shooting). Kobe Bryant had another quiet game offensively (five points on 1-3 field goal shooting) but he contributed five rebounds, three assists and two steals; Bryant, James, Westbrook, Williams and Chris Paul (three points, six assists, three steals) put tremendous pressure on Great Britain's perimeter players and helped Team USA to force 27 turnovers. That relentless defensive effort led to easy baskets and is the main reason that Team USA shot .603 from the field. Chicago All-Star Luol Deng led Great Britain with a game-high 25 points but he only shot 7-18 from the field. Former NBA player Pops Mensa-Bonsu contributed 12 points and a game-high nine rebounds.

Coach Mike Krzyzewski responded to Team USA's sluggish first quarter against Brazil by making two changes to his starting lineup, benching Carmelo Anthony and Chris Paul in favor of Kevin Durant and Deron Williams respectively. Team USA opened up a 13-6 lead by the 5:07 mark when Paul entered the game for Williams and Anthony came in for Chandler. Anthony performed very well in a reserve role, scoring 10 first quarter points as Team USA extended the margin to 33-20 by the end of the quarter.

Team USA led 55-37 at halftime and they quickly broke the game open in the third quarter with the new starting lineup once again on the court; Williams scored Team USA's first 11 points--and had 14 in the quarter overall--as Team USA went up 66-41 and never looked back. Team USA was on top 89-55 at the end of the third quarter, turning the final 10 minutes of the game into--as Marv Albert loves to say--"extensive garbage time."

After the game, Coach Krzyzewski downplayed the significance of the starting lineup changes, suggesting that Team USA in effect has seven starters and that some combination of four of those players plus center Tyson Chandler will start each game. It is probably true that it does not make a big difference which five of those seven players start the game but I still suspect that if/when Team USA is seriously challenged the "starters" whose end of the game minutes are most likely to be curtailed are Anthony's and Chandler's; Team USA cannot really go "big," so the best way for them to change up the game is to go "small," use pressure defense all over the court and then score in transition. The ideal lineup in that kind of scenario would feature James, Durant, Bryant and then some combination of Paul, Westbrook and Williams. Andre Iguodala could also potentially be used in such a case. James or Durant can play center, while the other three players can switch and trap on the perimeter; Team USA should score a lot of fast break points playing that way but even if an opposing team succeeds in slowing the game down Team USA could still run an effective half court FIBA offense with James operating in the post and the other four players spotting up behind the shorter FIBA three point line and/or cutting to the hoop when James is double-teamed.

Labels: 2012 Team USA, Carmelo Anthony, Deron Williams, Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Russell Westbrook

posted by David Friedman @ 10:36 PM

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Team USA's 12 Man Roster is Officially Announced

Injuries and the aging process prevented USA Basketball from completely putting the 2008 band back together but the 2012 version of Team USA that will compete in the London Olympics includes a strong mixture of five Olympic veterans and five FIBA World Championship veterans plus two young talents who will provide athleticism and scoring punch. Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Chris Paul, Carmelo Anthony and Deron Williams played on the 2008 gold medal-winning U.S. Olympic team, while Kevin Durant, Tyson Chandler, Russell Westbrook, Andre Iguodala and Kevin Love won gold medals for Team USA during the 2010 FIBA World Championship. Blake Griffin and James Harden are the newcomers who will provide firepower off of the bench.

James and Anthony will join David Robinson (1988, 1992, 1996) as the only men to play three times for Team USA in the Olympics. Bryant, Paul and Williams will add their names to the somewhat longer but still quite distinguished list of two-time U.S. Olympic basketball players: Charles Barkley (1992, 1996), Carlos Boozer (2004, 2008), Patrick Ewing (1984, 1992), Burdette Haldorson (1956, 1960), William Hougland (1952, 1956), Michael Jordan (1984, 1992), Jason Kidd (2000, 2008) Robert Kurland (1948, 1952), Karl Malone (1992, 1996), Chris Mullin (1984, 1992), Gary Payton (1996, 2000), Scottie Pippen (1992, 1996), Mitch Richmond (1988, 1996) and John Stockton (1992, 1996).

The 39 year old Kidd, who owns a 46-0 record as a member of two Olympic gold medalists and three FIBA Americas Championship squads (1999, 2003, 2007), previously announced his retirement from international play (and likely would not have been selected for this year's roster in any case); injuries prevented 2008 Olympians Dwight Howard, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh and 2010 FIBA World Championship veteran Derrick Rose from participating this time.

It will be very interesting to see how Coach Mike Krzyzewski distributes starting honors and--more importantly--minutes. Durant, the three-time reigning NBA scoring champion and 2010 FIBA World Championship MVP, may not even start for this team; James, Bryant and Paul are almost certainly locks to start, Chandler is the only true center on the roster and Anthony--despite his poor shooting and inconsistent play--started all eight games for the 2008 squad (though he often ended up on the bench during crunch time). Chandler played so poorly in the 2010 FIBA World Championship that he not only failed to hold on to the starting center job but he eventually fell out of the rotation completely, averaging just 8.6 mpg during the event, so perhaps that will influence Coach Krzyzewski to go "small" from the outset with James at center, Anthony at power forward, Durant at small forward and Bryant and Paul in the backcourt. It is certainly possible that Coach Krzyzewski will experiment a bit with his starting lineup and his overall rotation during Team USA's exhibition games/pre-Olympic tour. Love indicated that Coach Krzyzewski plans to use him almost exclusively at center.

FIBA basketball has different rules, a different playing/officiating style and a different rhythm from NBA basketball, so some players who look great in NBA play may be plagued by foul trouble and/or just generally seem out of sorts during FIBA competition. Love has emerged as a great NBA player but he was a non-factor--other than in garbage time--during the 2010 FIBA World Championship and Griffin is a good candidate to lead this squad in fouls per minute due to his aggressive style combined with FIBA's eccentric officiating. Harden seemed to lose his game and his confidence during the 2012 NBA Finals, so it will be interesting to see if the changes of venue and rules bring him back to life or if he stays in his slump.

Team USA will obviously rely on quickness and athleticism and if Team USA has the proper "attention to detail" (as Bryant put it shortly after the announcement of the final roster) then they should be able to overwhelm most of the teams that they will face; Team USA's main weakness--a lack of size, specifically a dearth of true back to the basket centers--could be exploited by teams that do not turn the ball over, keep the pace of the game slow and pound the ball inside to skilled big men.

Despite what countless "experts" will proclaim, the deciding factor for Team USA will not be lack of size or how well Team USA shoots from behind the arc; Team USA has several players who play and rebound "bigger" than their size and Team USA should be able to score so well in transition that three point shooting will not be a huge part of their offensive repertoire. The key for Team USA to win in FIBA events is to play suffocating defense and shut down the opposing team's three point shooters without getting broken down for layups in the screen/roll game. In the 2008 Olympics, Team USA held opposing teams to .403 field goal shooting and .299 three point field goal shooting. Those are the two most important statistical categories to monitor as Team USA chases gold in London.

Labels: 2012 Team USA, Andre Iguodala, Blake Griffin, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, James Harden, Kevin Durant, Kevin Love, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Russell Westbrook, Tyson Chandler

posted by David Friedman @ 11:26 PM

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Deron Williams Did Not Set Nets' Single Game Scoring Record

On Saturday night, Deron Williams scored a career-high 57 points in New Jersey's 104-101 victory at Charlotte. That is the most points an NBA player has scored in a game since Kobe Bryant dropped 61 points on the Knicks at Madison Square Garden--but, contrary to what you may have read or heard, Williams did not break the Nets' franchise single game scoring record. The Nets franchise began in the ABA in 1967 when they were known as the New Jersey Americans. After the 1967-68 season they changed their name to the New York Nets and after the 1976-77 season they changed their name to the New Jersey Nets. During nine ABA seasons the Nets won two ABA titles (1974 and 1976) and that second championship run featured one of the greatest single series performances in pro basketball history as Julius Erving led both teams in scoring (37.7 ppg), rebounding (14.2 rpg), assists (6.0 apg), steals (3.0 spg) and blocked shots (2.2 bpg) in the 1976 ABA Finals. During the previous season, Erving scored a career-high 63 points in a 176-166 quadruple overtime loss to the San Diego Conquistadors, one of the 48 regular season games in which Erving scored at least 40 points during his ABA/NBA career.

Erving still holds the Nets' single game scoring record as surely as Joe Namath's 4007 passing yards in 1967 for the then-AFL New York Jets remains the Jets' single season record in that category. Unfortunately, the NBA has been engaged in Orwellian-style historical revisionism for decades; James Silas once lamented to me that the Spurs' record book does not acknowledge that he scored more than 10,000 points in his career even though the team gave him a commemorative ball at the time that he reached that milestone achievement. Silas mentioned this to me several years ago, so I just checked the Spurs' 2012 Media Guide online to see if anything as changed but in the former players section the Media Guide inexplicably does not include Silas' first season with the franchise--when he scored 1071 points for the team then known as the Dallas Chaparrals--and it segregates Silas's ABA Spurs points from his NBA Spurs points without listing a combined total (there is a section of the Media Guide that briefly discusses the Spurs' ABA history and lists the team's ABA statistics but that history and those numbers are artificially separated from the rest of the team's statistics and history).

No matter how much the NBA, the Elias Sports Bureau and complicit media outlets try to deny the real history the truth cannot and should not be buried: ABA statistics exist and they should be fully acknowledged by the NBA just like the NFL fully acknowledges AFL statistics. The Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame is finally recognizing ABA legends like Mel Daniels and Artis Gilmore so the next step is for the NBA and its four former ABA franchises (Pacers, Nets, Nuggets and Spurs) to proudly and fully acknowledge ABA history and ABA statistics.

Labels: Dallas Chaparrals, Deron Williams, James Silas, Julius Erving, New Jersey Nets, New York Nets, San Antonio Spurs

posted by David Friedman @ 5:05 AM

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The Real Deal About the NBA Lockout

In a February 27, 2011 article, I predicted that there would be "a lockout that continues until the owners and players agree to fundamentally restructure the league's failing business model." That is all you really need to know about the NBA lockout in general--the specific details will be filled in once the lockout is over, which will happen after the players eventually give in and accept the reality that the owners will do whatever it takes to fix the NBA's broken business model.

Much of the mainstream media coverage of the lockout has been pathetic and misinformed. Chris Sheridan gained some credibility for himself by leaving ESPN but then he immediately squandered it by trying to draw attention to his new website with the absurd assertion that the lockout would be settled quickly. Sheridan prides himself on being an NBA insider but if he really understood the inner workings of the league and/or had the well-placed contacts he brags about having then he would have never misled his readers into believing that the lockout would be settled quickly.

Some "stat gurus" and some fools like Henry Abbott assert that the NBA's real problem is that the supposedly incompetent owners keep overpaying players and that instead of asking the players to accept a smaller percentage of the league's revenues the owners should simply run their teams more intelligently. This way of thinking betrays a fundamental misunderstanding of how the NBA works specifically and of how business works in general. Microsoft and Apple would each like to drive the other out of business or at least grab the lion's share of the marketplaces over which they are competing--but the 30 NBA teams will only achieve maximum financial health if the league itself is financially healthy; if a few teams drive most of the teams out of business the league will not be more powerful or wealthier. It is easy to say that owners should not overpay players but the NBA's current financial system all but ensures that players will in fact be overpaid: long-term guaranteed contracts for depreciating assets--and players who are subject to age, injury and possibly decreasing motivation after becoming set for life are most certainly depreciating assets--are standard operating procedure in the NBA; in contrast, the signing bonus is the only guaranteed money in an NFL contract, meaning that NFL players must stay healthy and productive in order to get paid.

If NBA teams actually did what Abbott and some "stat gurus" suggest--namely, collectively stop offering huge contracts to so many players--then the Players Association would file a lawsuit alleging collusion, and, based on the current NBA business model, the players would undoubtedly win such a suit: the precedent has been set for contracts to steadily increase and if the owners unilaterally act to prevent that from happening without signing a new CBA with the players then the owners would in fact be guilty of collusion.

Contrary to what Abbott and some others have asserted, it is irrelevant how much money the NBA owners may make in other businesses, just like it is irrelevant how much money many NBA players make via endorsements; the NBA owners would be wrong to ask LeBron James to take a pay cut just because James also receives money from Nike and the players are wrong to suggest that because NBA owners have other revenue streams it is OK that several teams are losing money. Can you name another business in which the employees receive 57% of the revenues? That is a very unusual deal, particularly considering that several franchises are losing money.

Owning a team represents a significant investment and owners should have the opportunity to get a return on that investment. If the players think that the owners are so easily replaceable then the players should put their own capital at risk, build 30 arenas, negotiate television deals and establish their own league. I say that half in jest because any logical person realizes that this is an absurd proposition but if it is true that "stat guru" Dave Berri has seriously suggested this then perhaps he should be the first commissioner of this hypothetical league and thereby subject his unfounded theories to a real world test. It is certainly true that the NBA players are very talented and they deserve to be well compensated for their talents but without the infrastructure provided by the owners the players would be playing in the And One Mix Tape Tour (or whatever it is called now).

Several decades ago, the various sports leagues and team owners had too much power; men like Curt Flood and Spencer Haywood sacrificed a lot to enable players to have more control over their lives--but in recent years the pendulum has swung too far in the other direction: the NBA cannot survive a scenario in which star players collude to leave good, solid franchises in order to build a handful of super teams. Players should of course have the right to become free agents after a certain term of service but the NBA should be set up to reward stability and to give well-run franchises the opportunity to retain the star players that they developed. In other words, if someone wants to leave the Clippers he should be able to do so but it should not be quite so easy to leave professional organizations like the Cavaliers, the Nuggets or the Jazz; it would not be a bad thing for the NBA if someone bought the Clippers from Donald Sterling but if it turns out that it is impossible to keep a star in Cleveland, Denver, Utah (and possibly New Orleans and Orlando) then the NBA will rapidly shrink from a 30 team national league to a five team league that is only followed regionally.

High profile, high paying careers often require certain sacrifices. Doctors and lawyers work long hours with high levels of stress; other jobs necessitate frequent travel or backbreaking physical labor. NBA players earn a lot of money and they receive other perks but they should understand the sacrifices they must make to keep those jobs: in addition to the obvious and expected mental and physical demands resulting from training, from traveling and from playing a long season the players have to balance their individual desires against what is good for the league overall. In other words, total unrestricted free agency with no salary cap may seem like a dream scenario for players (and their agents) but it would kill the NBA by concentrating all of the sport's stars on a handful of teams (I know that the players are not asking for total unrestricted free agency but my point is that granting the players most or all of the individual "rights" that they think they are entitled to would actually destroy the sport and thus not serve their best interests at all). Yes, the average person can give two weeks notice and go to work for another employer but the average person also does not receive the guaranteed salary (and numerous perks) that come with being an NBA player. If any player thinks that the NBA's proposal for a new business model is simply too onerous then that player is free to choose another less glamorous profession or to play in another league whose business model better suits him--but until the players collectively understand that they must work with the owners to keep the NBA afloat the lockout will not end.

It is funny--and yet sad--that instead of discussing the substantive issues mentioned above we witnessed a parade of highly paid TV and print "journalists" breathlessly recounting the confrontation that allegedly happened recently between David Stern and Dwyane Wade. I have no idea if Stern wagged his finger at Wade or if Wade responded by yelling at Stern but the idea that Wade earned some kind of "street cred" in that encounter is as ludicrous as the idea that Wade is a better player than LeBron James (a myth pumped up by many of the same "journalists" who are now betraying their complete lack of understanding regarding the NBA lockout). Are we supposed to believe that Wade's next move will be pulling out a gun and forcing Stern to give the players what they want? Will the lockout be settled based on who has the most "street cred"? On the court, I'll take Wade over Stern every day of the week but in a boardroom the matchup is just as lopsided in the other direction, something that Wade will have plenty of time to ponder as Stern and the owners refrain from paying Wade and the other players for an extended period of time.

No matter what Henry Abbott, the "stat gurus" or Chris Sheridan say, the lockout will continue until the players consent to a fundamental restructuring of the NBA's business model--and the players have likely passed up the best offer they will receive; subsequent offers will be reduced by whatever amount of revenue the owners lose from cancelled games, starting with the first two weeks of the regular season that were officially wiped out just a few hours ago. Commissioner Stern stated all of this very clearly a while ago but apparently the players--and many media members--simply were not listening. Two other points are worth keeping in mind: (1) the previous lockout ended when Commissioner Stern stated that if the players did not immediately accept the offer on the table then he would not only cancel the rest of the 1998-99 season but that in the 1999-00 season the league would hire replacement players; (2) Commissioner Stern has stated that, unlike in 1998-99, he does not plan to repeatedly cancel games in small chunks but that at a certain (publicly unstated) date he will simply cancel the remainder of the season--meaning that players could rapidly go from losing one or two paychecks to losing an entire year's worth of paychecks (that amounts to roughly $15.5 million for Miami's "Mr. Street Cred," which is a lot of money to pay in exchange for the short-lived satisfaction derived from yelling at Commissioner Stern).

Labels: Carmelo Anthony, David Stern, Deron Williams, Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, NBA Lockout

posted by David Friedman @ 4:30 AM

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Trade Deadline Deals Show How LeBron's "Decision" is Reshaping the NBA

LeBron James' infamous "Decision" is reshaping the NBA and may ultimately result in a lockout that could cancel at least part of the 2011-2012 season. This is not about whether James was (1) right that his best option was to leave Cleveland for Miami and/or (2) whether James handled the free agency process appropriately; I already addressed both of those issues soon after James commandeered an hour of ESPN's schedule to, among other things, shred whatever remained of Jim Gray's journalistic integrity. No, this is about all the dominoes that have inevitably crashed down since last summer when LeBron James and Chris Bosh joined forces with Dwyane Wade to form a trio that looks so powerful on paper that the normally analytical Jeff Van Gundy temporarily lost his mind and predicted a 75-7 season for the Heat (who are currently 43-16 and on pace to finish with the 60 victories that I predicted they would collect). Technically, Amare Stoudemire's decision to leave Phoenix to go to New York preceded James' "Decision" by a few days but there are many reasons that James' action has become a capitalized buzzword (not the least of those reasons being that the Heat are legitimate title contenders while the Knicks, despite all of the media buzz, are barely above .500 at the moment); Stoudemire's choice was less shocking to the NBA's system because Phoenix was not willing to give Stoudemire a max deal--fearing that his knees may not be a good long term investment--so it was not a big surprise when Stoudemire went for the cash (though Knicks' fans who expected to receive LeBron James as their Christmas in July present may have been surprised to find Stoudemire in their stockings).

The current NBA Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) is set up to encourage each superstar to re-sign with the team that drafted him; that team can offer such players both the most money and the longest term deal. Until last summer, no elite free agent had spurned that extra cash and extra security to go elsewhere. On paper, the system seemed ideal: players had the right to seek greener pastures, which thereby provided owners a significant incentive to build a solid enough organization/roster so that their star players would not want to leave. In the "bad old days" before free agency, teams essentially owned players for life after drafting them but the current CBA balanced players' rights with owners' (and fans') desires to not lose cornerstone players.

Throughout his tenure in Cleveland, James enjoyed being coy about his intentions, never indicating whether he planned to stay or go (and ultimately alienating fans in cities across the country who became convinced that James was just flirting with those other towns but really planned to commit to them). While it could be argued that this provided great incentive to ownership/management to spend money to build a strong team it could also be argued that this discouraged other free agents from signing with the Cavs in prior seasons and that it led to a short term plan centered on acquiring veteran players as opposed to a long term plan that would have created a better roster eventually but may not have led to an immediate championship; the way things turned out, the Cavs made it to the 2007 NBA Finals, rebooted their team and made it to the 2009 Eastern Conference Finals (after posting the league's best regular season record) and then rebooted their team again before posting the league's best regular season record in 2010 only to fall short in the Eastern Conference semifinals. The Cavs basically catered to every great and small whim that James ever expressed and then they offered him the max deal for max years, never dreaming of or planning for the possibility that he might actually bolt town. Some might argue that James, Wade and Bosh unselfishly left money on the table in order to try to build a championship team in Miami but the reality is that they gave up little if any real dollars when one factors in the taxes they saved (Florida does not have a state income tax) and the extra endorsements that they likely will receive from playing in the Miami market--and that is the brilliance of what Pat Riley pulled off: he figured out how to bring three max players into the fold for less than max dollars in a way that those players still essentially received max dollars. Also, this may sound flippant but the reality is that if the number one goal for any of these free agents was truly to win a championship then they would have accepted the midlevel exception (or some similar deal) to join forces with Kobe Bryant in L.A.; winning a championship may be a goal for some or all of these guys but getting paid is the first goal and being "the Man" is a secondary goal (at least for James and Stoudemire; Bosh seems to understand and accept that he is not, in fact, "the Man").

Forget how the media hyperventilated about all of this, with Cleveland media members shamelessly ripping James after seven years of (wrongly) elevating him far above Kobe Bryant (James only passed Bryant, as a regular season performer, quite recently and never by the margin that his sycophants suggested), while national media members breathlessly declared that the Heat would instantly become one of the greatest teams ever and "stat gurus" asserted that the Heat would actually win 90 out of 82 games due to the combined "advanced statistical" prowess of James, Wade and Bosh; disregard all of the hype and all of the nonsense: James' "Decision" was an Earth shattering event for the powers that be in the NBA and a massive paradigm shift whose implications are only now being fully appreciated. Owners looked at what James did and became terrified that their own star players might leave; star players looked at what James did and began plotting how to arrive at their dream destinations. The perfect storm that produced the Cavs' epic collapse this season (a subject worthy of full length treatment in a separate article) added fuel to the fire; no owner wanted to end up like Dan Gilbert--jilted and howling at the moon with his franchise's value plummeting with each double digit loss--and no star player wanted to replace James as Public Enemy Number One.

The dominoes began to fall. While many people point to the "Melo-drama" saga as perhaps the first reaction to the implications of James' "Decision," it would be more accurate to say that Orlando's desperate midseason trades were that first domino: the Magic dealt two starters (former All-Stars Vince Carter and Rashard Lewis), arguably the best backup center in the league (Marcin Gortat) and their best perimeter defender (Mickael Pietrus) because they were already concerned that if they did not make a serious NBA Finals push this season then Dwight Howard may walk when his contract expires. Much like James' refusal to commit to Cleveland influenced the Cavs to seek short term roster solutions instead of developing their roster with a long range view, the Magic went for broke because they lacked confidence in the team's ability to win a title right now. I understand the bind that the Magic are in and I don't blame General Manager Otis Smith for rolling the dice but I also predicted that those deals were more likely to remove Orlando from championship contention than they were to vault Orlando past Miami and Boston--and that is exactly what has happened: the Magic are 21-13 since remaking their roster (just 8-7 in the past month) and they look like they are competing not for an NBA Finals berth but rather to avoid first round elimination. Hedo Turkoglu seems to be past his prime and/or satisfied with his big contract, Gilbert Arenas was always overrated and is now a shell of his former self and even Jason Richardson--the best player the Magic acquired--has hardly set the world on fire. The Magic have the second highest payroll in the league (behind only the two-time defending champion L.A. Lakers) but, even more ominously, Arenas is not only their highest paid player this season but is slated to be their highest paid player through the 2013-14 season. How thrilled do you think Howard is about that? The problem is not just that Arenas makes more than Howard: the problem is that Arenas is a non-productive player who is taking up salary cap space that could have potentially been used much more effectively. Arenas' advocates--and he inexplicably has many of them, ranging from fawning media members to "stat guru" fanboys like Neil Paine--will no doubt argue that Arenas was a great player before suffering knee injuries but (1) that is irrelevant to the Magic, who cannot put Arenas in a "hot tub time machine" to fix his knees and (2) Arenas was never as productive as his fans/"stat guru" admirers insisted, a point that I established definitively when I refuted Paine's tendentious assertion that Arenas was once an elite player; the truth is that even when Arenas was in his prime he had no discernible impact in the standings: the Wizards were roughly a .500 team when he played and they were roughly a .500 team when he didn't play.

The Magic saw what happened with LeBron James and Cleveland and were so terrified that they decided that making Arenas their highest paid player is a risk worth taking if it even slightly increases the probability that Howard might stay in Orlando. How crazy is that? Arenas is averaging 7.8 ppg with the Magic, while denting rims across the country with his .234 three point shooting, .698 free throw shooting and his .336 overall field goal percentage. Remember, the Magic owe Arenas more than $60 million through 2014, there is no way that they will be able to trade him and the only way that Arenas fails to receive that money from Orlando is if there is a lockout or if he actually fires his guns in the locker room (just bringing them into the locker room in Washington apparently was not enough to get his contract voided). No, the Magic will not be winning a championship any time soon but someone should turn Coach Stan Van Gundy's "Wired" segments into a reality TV show; that show, along with the inevitable "stat guru" articles trying to explain that Arenas really was an elite player once despite all rational evidence to the contrary, will provide some great unintentional comic relief.

On to the next "Decision" domino. The main storylines this season should have been the Lakers trying to threepeat (and trying to accomplish the even rarer feat of reaching the NBA Finals for the fourth straight time, something that has only been achieved by the Showtime Lakers, the Bird-McHale-Parish Celtics and Bill Russell's dynastic Celtics), the Spurs potentially making a run at 70 wins, the reloaded Celtics attempting to reach the Finals for the third time in four years and Miami's newly assembled trio battling to compete with the three aforementioned established powers--but instead we have been saturated with "Melo-drama."

Denver offered Carmelo Anthony a contract extension but Anthony refused to sign, made it known privately (more or less) that he would like to play for the New York Knicks and thus issued an ultimatum to Nuggets' management (but retained plausible deniability because he never uttered his ultimatum publicly): trade me now or lose me for nothing later (like Cleveland lost James). Anthony saw that James' approach--being coy and not making his intentions clear to his team or his fans--may have been good for ESPN's ratings but it was terrible for James' image, so Anthony tried to make a smoother version of James' power play, though Anthony did utter his share of tone deaf statements (capped off when Anthony said "I have to take my hat off to myself" because he was so proud of how he handled the challenge of deciding where he is going to live for the next few years while making tens of millions of dollars playing basketball).

Anthony essentially held at least three franchises (Denver, New York, New Jersey) hostage for months and took away attention from what really matters--great players playing basketball at a high level. Technically, Anthony did not do anything wrong and yet it mystifies me that anyone can believe that this is a sustainable business model for the NBA. The Nuggets finally ended the "Melo-drama" by shipping Anthony (plus Chauncey Billups and other considerations) to New York in exchange for several quality players plus some draft picks; in a heartfelt press conference, Denver General Manager Masai Ujiri explained how wrenching it was to trade hometown hero Billups and candidly said that the Nuggets were "killed" in the deal, a historically accurate sentiment based on the majority of previous trades consisting of stars being exchanged for solid players. The ironic thing is that I am far from convinced that the Knicks have suddenly become a legitimate contender nor am I sure that the Nuggets really got "killed" (though Ujiri was right to lament the way things went down and was also probably firing a shot across the bow in anticipation of the upcoming CBA showdown this summer); not only do I not see the Knicks winning the East any time soon I suspect that they will lose in the first round of the playoffs (unless they luck out and run into the Magic, perhaps), while the Nuggets--relieved of the huge dark cloud hanging over their heads--will probably move up in the West standings, though they too are likely first round fodder (which is no different than their fate during most of Anthony's Denver career).

The next domino seemingly took everyone by surprise but actually makes a lot of sense in light of everything that preceded it: as soon as the Nets lost out on Anthony they made a deal to acquire Deron Williams, who--as Kevin McHale astutely noted--is actually a better all-around player than Anthony. Williams had some undefined role in Utah Coach Jerry Sloan's sudden midseason retirement and Williams sent strong signals that he--like James, Anthony and possibly Howard--intended to head elsewhere when his current contract ends. The Jazz, mindful of what happened to Cleveland (collapse), Orlando (panicky deals that seemingly are backfiring like an exploding cigar) and Denver (enervating drama) tried to avoid the dreaded horsemen of Collapse, Panic and Drama by shipping Williams out in exchange for an All-Star point guard (Devin Harris), a promising young player (Derrick Favors) and three first round picks. Historically speaking, the Jazz got "killed" (to borrow Ujiri's terminology) because they lost one of the top 10-15 players in the league but in today's crazy NBA world they made out pretty well: they obtained two players who can help them now plus three draft picks that will hopefully either provide an infusion of youthful talent or else be useful in future trades. By acting so quickly the Jazz also prevented Williams from hijacking the season and circumvented any attempts he might have made to choose his destination a la Carmelo Anthony.

The next domino was smaller but perhaps even more surprising: the Boston Celtics, believing that they will not be able to re-sign Kendrick Perkins when his contract expired after this season, traded the starting center from their 2008 championship team (plus reserve guard Nate Robinson) to Oklahoma City for Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic. The Celtics added versatility and shooting but they lost a key part of the physical presence that defined their team's identity; Perkins and Kevin Garnett set hard (semi-legal) screens, grabbed tough rebounds in traffic and patrolled the paint defensively, making life easier for perimeter All-Stars Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo. Without Perkins' bulk and toughness, Garnett will not be as daunting a presence (Garnett has shown that he likes to pick on smaller, younger players, while Perkins has shown that he will get in anyone's grill). Perkins is not a superstar--or even an All-Star--but the first thing I thought of when I heard about this trade is the infamous (for Boston fans) Paul Silas fiasco. Red Auerbach did not make many bad moves during his long, distinguished career as a coach and executive but he often said that his biggest mistake was trading Silas to Denver in 1976 instead of meeting Silas' contract demands; Auerbach admitted that he failed to realize Silas' true value. Silas eventually landed in Seattle, where he provided toughness in the paint, mentored a young Jack Sikma and helped the Sonics reach the NBA Finals in 1978 and 1979 (Seattle won the 1979 title). Meanwhile, the Celtics, who won two championships in Silas' four years with the team, became a doormat until the arrival of Bird (and later McHale and Parish) revived the franchise. The Perkins-Silas comparison is not perfect--no comparison is--but the similarities are eerie: both players were traded because of financial (not performance) issues, both players had played key (but intangible) roles for championship teams and both players went from a veteran Boston team to the same young, aspiring Western Conference franchise (the Oklahoma City Thunder used to be the Seattle SuperSonics). The main difference is that Silas was a wily veteran near the end of his career while Perkins is a young veteran just entering his prime but it will be interesting to see what impact this trade has on both franchises in the next five years. Perkins could turn out to be the final piece in the Thunder's championship puzzle (not necessarily this season but soon) and he could also turn out to be Danny Ainge's biggest regret. Lakers Coach Phil Jackson delivered the best zinger, wryly noting, "Doc (Rivers) had touted the fact that the (Boston) starting five had never lost a playoff series. I'm sure most everybody has heard it in the NBA, that this starting five has never lost a playoff series. Well, they go down without ever having lost a playoff series." Ainge, seeking to avoid the aforementioned deadly horsemen of Collapse, Panic and Drama, perhaps believes that Green's versatility and Krstic's shooting will make up for Perkins' size/toughness but it is very bold to tinker with the starting lineup of a one-time champion/two-time Finalist that is contending for the best record in the East. Perhaps Ainge has more moves up his sleeve but it sure looks like the Celtics should have let things ride with Perkins, tried to win the 2011 title and then dealt with Perkins' contract at a later date; if I were Ainge, I'd rather win a championship even if it meant losing Perkins for nothing later then trade Perkins now just for the sake of getting a leg up on the inevitable rebuilding project after Allen, Garnett and Pierce retire.

The footnote to the Boston situation is that a major reason that the Celtics felt comfortable trading Perkins is that they believe that Shaquille O'Neal can take his place as a 20-25 mpg physical force in this year's postseason; this is the same O'Neal whose departure from Cleveland is never mentioned when people talk about the Cavs' collapse sans James. I will discuss this in greater detail in a separate article but the fact that arguably the best team in the East has installed O'Neal as their starting center (and the other top team in the East, Miami, has used Zydrunas Ilgauskas--Cleveland's backup center last season--as their starting center in most of their games) is a not so subtle indication that it is foolish to pretend that Cleveland only lost one important player this season. Another fun fact worth pondering is that this season the Miami "Superfriends" are likely going to combine to produce fewer wins than James and the Cavs totaled in either of the previous two seasons; I still say that it would not surprise me at all if James never wins more regular season games in his best season with Miami than he did as a Cavalier and I just cannot fathom the supposed logic that suggests "James plus trash equals 66 and 61 wins but James plus two top 15 players equals 60 wins or less"--if James really won all those games by himself in Cleveland then he should indeed be able to win 90 games out of 82 in Miami as the "stat gurus" predicted; since James and the Heat are not quite as good as so many people expected it would be reasonable to at least consider the possibility that defensive-minded coaching and a solid, deep supporting cast may have had something to do with Cleveland's record the past two seasons. Yes, I am fully aware that James and the Heat will be judged not by regular season wins but by playoff success (or failure); I have made that exact point many times--and I am also not convinced that the Heat are a lock to have more playoff success in the next four seasons than the Cavs did in the previous four (two trips to the Eastern Conference Finals and one trip to the NBA Finals).

Time will tell the significance of the Perkins deal and time will enable us to make sensible evaluations of James' supporting casts in Cleveland and Miami--but the Orlando, Denver, Utah and (to a lesser extent) Boston dominoes will shape the NBA for years to come on the court and also will likely culminate in the final domino this summer: a lockout that continues until the owners and players agree to fundamentally restructure the league's failing business model.

Labels: Boston Celtics, Carmelo Anthony, Cleveland Cavaliers, Denver Nuggets, Deron Williams, Kendrick Perkins, LeBron James, Miami Heat, Oklahoma City Thunder, Orlando Magic, Paul Silas, Utah Jazz

posted by David Friedman @ 4:56 AM

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Lindy's Pro Basketball 2010-11 Includes Pau Gasol Feature Story, Kevin Durant Interview

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2010-11--available in stores now--includes a Pau Gasol feature story by editor/renowned Lakers authority Roland Lazenby and Jorge Ribeiro's interview with Kevin Durant. Lazenby asserts that Gasol's strong performances during the Lakers' back to back championship runs have done a lot to destroy the stereotype of European players as "soft." Durant discusses a wide range of issues, including his experiences playing for Team USA Coach Mike Krzyzewski.

I contributed five team previews this year: Charlotte Bobcats, Denver Nuggets, Oklahoma City Thunder, Sacramento Kings and Utah Jazz. As usual, each team preview is followed by a 300 word sidebar story. Here are the sidebar subjects that I examined:

Charlotte: Michael Jordan is the first NBA player to become the majority owner of an NBA franchise.

Denver: The importance of coaching in general and the specific impact that George Karl's absence had on the Nuggets last season.

Oklahoma City: Switching from shooting guard to small forward sparked Kevin Durant's emergence as an elite NBA player.

Sacramento: Tyreke Evans posted LeBron-like rookie numbers but to truly become an elite player he will have to make the same kind of second year jump that LeBron James did.

Utah: A good case can be made that Deron Williams has emerged as the NBA's best point guard.

Most of what I submitted was published exactly the way I wrote it, though the first sentence of my Nuggets' sidebar was deleted ("Statistics can be valuable when used properly but some people insist that anything that cannot be quantified on a spreadsheet is not important") and this sentence was tacked on to the end: "Karl's health appears to be on the mend--and the entire NBA wishes him well and has nothing but admiration for the Nugget's (sic) coach--but his comeback remains yet another unanswered question for this franchise." One of the core tenets asserted by "stat gurus" is that coaching ultimately does not make that much difference. I disagree with that sentiment, noting, "Unlike baseball, basketball is a dynamic game, so it is difficult to accurately quantify each player's impact on a given play, let alone decipher the overall effect that a coach has." Naturally, "stat gurus" realize that it is not in their self interest to acknowledge the importance of anything that they cannot quantify (or at least pretend to be able to quantify)--but it is not coincidental that five coaches (Phil Jackson, Red Auerbach, John Kundla, Pat Riley and Gregg Popovich) have won 34 of the NBA's 64 championships.

The Bobcats officially added Sherron Collins to their roster after the article submission deadline, so I did not write the brief comments about him. Also, I think that if Larry Hughes is healthy he could play his way into Charlotte's rotation but my analysis of Hughes was deleted. Here is what I originally said about Hughes:

"Larry Hughes was once a top notch defender; injuries have taken away a lot of his athletic ability and he is now a player who does several things adequately but nothing exceptionally well. Hughes has always been an erratic outside shooter. If he can stay healthy then he can be a solid backup for (Stephen) Jackson."

Writing the team previews is always fun; I hope that readers are informed and entertained by my contributions and by the magazine as a whole.

Labels: Charlotte Bobcats, Denver Nuggets, Deron Williams, George Karl, Kevin Durant, Lindy's Pro Basketball, Michael Jordan, Oklahoma City Thunder, Sacramento Kings, Tyreke Evans, Utah Jazz

posted by David Friedman @ 2:21 AM

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Los Angeles Versus Utah Preview

Western Conference Second Round

#1 L.A. Lakers (57-25) vs. #5 Utah (53-29)

Season series: L.A. Lakers, 3-1

Utah can win if…Deron Williams performs at an MVP level, Carlos Boozer and the other Utah bigs are able to be effective inside despite the length of L.A.'s bigs and the Jazz find a way to hold Kobe Bryant below 26-28 ppg on .450 field goal shooting without compromising their overall team defense to the extent that other Lakers get easy looks.

L.A. will win because…the Jazz have no one who can effectively match up with Bryant, so they will constantly have to double team him; that will open things up for Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum inside and/or the Lakers' perimeter shooters. The Jazz' undersized and injury-depleted frontcourt will also have trouble dealing with the Lakers' length--provided that Gasol and Bynum play with poise and appropriate aggressiveness.

Other things to consider: Utah's only win versus the Lakers this season came in the game after Bryant suffered his infamous broken right index finger; Bryant shot just 7-24 from the field in the second game of a back to back and the Jazz won 102-94 at home. The last time these teams faced each other in the postseason was in the first round of the 2009 playoffs; Bryant averaged 27.4 ppg on .466 field goal shooting plus 5.6 apg and 5.0 rpg as the Lakers cruised to a five game series victory. When the Lakers and Jazz faced each other in the second round of the 2008 playoffs, Bryant averaged 33.2 ppg on .491 field goal shooting plus 7.2 apg and 7.0 rpg as the Lakers won in six games. Bryant set the tone right from the start in that series with 38 points in a 109-98 game one victory and the Lakers were never seriously threatened as the Jazz had no answer for Bryant--and they still have no one on their roster who can effectively check him.

Bryant struggled at times with his shot during the Lakers' six game win over the Oklahoma City Thunder--averaging 23.5 ppg on .408 field goal shooting--but he came up big in the decisive game with 32 points on 12-25 field goal shooting. That is the sixth straight time that Bryant has scored at least 30 points in a potential closeout game on the road, tying Elgin Baylor's NBA record and topping Michael Jordan's streak of five straight such games from 1988-90. Before the series I said that the Lakers would be in serious danger of losing unless Bryant scored 26-28 ppg while shooting at least .450 from the field but the Lakers managed to advance even though Bryant fell short of both of those benchmarks. How did they do it? Bryant was off target in game one (team-high 21 points but only 6-19 shooting) but Kevin Durant shot even worse (24 points on 7-24 shooting) thanks to Ron Artest's suffocating defense, so the Lakers got an important win (despite what you may hear or believe, game one is very significant and the team that wins that game usually wins a series). Bryant had a series-high 39 points in game two and although his overall field goal percentage was less than optimal (12-28, .429), he controlled the game in the fourth quarter and carried the Lakers to victory. The Thunder bounced back in games three and four as Bryant first shot poorly (24 points on 12-29 shooting in game three) and then did not shoot enough (12 points on 5-10 shooting in game four). Game five proved to be the pivotal contest and Bryant did something that I did not expect considering how much his right knee has been limiting his bounce: Bryant took the challenge of guarding lightning quick point guard Russell Westbrook and completely disrupted the one player no other Laker could guard. This is actually a pretty standard move for Coach Phil Jackson--dating back to when Jackson put Scottie Pippen on point guards like Magic Johnson and Mark Jackson to cut off the head of the snake during the Bulls' championship runs in the 1990s--but I did not even mention this potential adjustment in my series preview simply because I did not think that in his current condition Bryant would be up to the task. Bryant's Pippen-like performance in game five--dominating a game with defense and playmaking despite not scoring much (13 points on 4-9 shooting)--shifted the series in the Lakers' favor and then Bryant closed out the deal in game six with his best all-around performance of the series.

All season long media critics have been carping that the Lakers made a mistake when they essentially swapped Trevor Ariza for Ron Artest but in the first round we saw just how valuable Artest is as a one on one, lock down defender versus elite scorers; Ariza used his strength and savvy to force 2010 scoring champion Durant into a miserable series (25.0 ppg on .350 field goal shooting, including 26 points on 5-23 field goal shooting in the clincher). Ariza is great at playing the passing lanes but he lacks the strength and overall defensive ability to do what Artest did to Durant; Ariza is a very solid role player who performed well for the Lakers in a limited, specified role last season (spot up three point shooter, rangy defender in the passing lanes) but Artest is a former Defensive Player of the Year/All-Star who can have a bigger impact on a game than Ariza can.

It sure is nice to be Pau Gasol; although he did good work on the glass in game six (18 rebounds) versus the Thunder, Gasol had shot just 3-10 from the field--looking tentative and off balance--before converting the game-winning putback of Kobe Bryant's missed baseline jumper: Gasol had a wide open path to the front of the rim because Nick Collison slid over to contest Bryant's shot. That kind of play is exactly what I mean when I say that Gasol is so fortunate to play with Bryant; during the first 47:59.5 of that game we got a pretty good sense of how much trouble the Lakers would be in if they needed Gasol to be the first option offensively in a closeout game--but Bryant's ability to draw double teams provides easy scoring opportunities for Gasol. When he is at his best, Gasol exploits those opportunities but--as Artest put it after the game--during game six Gasol "fell asleep" at times but fortunately for the Lakers he woke up literally at the last second to save the day. If the Lakers are going to return to the NBA Finals for the third straight year it is imperative that Gasol take more advantage of similar easy opportunities throughout the upcoming games, particularly since Bryant's injuries appear to be preventing him from dominating offensively to the extent that he usually does.

Labels: Carlos Boozer, Deron Williams, Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers, Pau Gasol, Ron Artest, Utah Jazz

posted by David Friedman @ 4:44 AM

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