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Monday, November 17, 2008

Shaq, Redd Speak About Kobe in Sports Illustrated

A pair of unrelated articles in the November 10 issue of Sports Illustrated contain some interesting quotes about Kobe Bryant. In Dan Patrick's "Just My Type," the former SportsCenter anchor interviewed Shaquille O'Neal. Here are a few of those questions and answers:

Patrick: "O.K., if you're going to teach your kids how to play in the pivot, do you have them look at your footwork or Tim Duncan's?"

O'Neal: "No, I have them look at all the guards. I let them watch Kobe and T-Mac."

Patrick: "What is the part of Kobe's game that you say to your kids, 'Just watch what he does, nobody does that better'?"

O'Neal: "His ferocity."

Patrick: "Most intense player in the league?"

O'Neal: "Oh, yes, by far the best player in the league."

A Chris Mannix article titled "Redd State" talked about how Michael Redd is transforming his body and his game. New Milwaukee Coach Scott Skiles is trying to change the mindset of the Bucks. "People who watched the Bucks the last couple of years know that when the team got behind, [the players] caved in and took a loss," Skiles said. Teams tend to follow the mindset of their leader, so that is hardly a ringing endorsement of Redd. Indeed, Mannix quoted a scout who said of Redd's defense, "He's O.K. off the ball but you can go at him one-on-one." Skiles is challenging Redd to elevate his defensive game by assigning the sharpshooter to guard the opposing team's top perimeter player. To his credit, Redd has enthusiastically accepted this new role, reducing his weight and body fat so that he is in better condition to exert himself at both ends of the court. Redd's trainer said, "Michael was someone who relied on basketball to stay in shape and keep his legs strong." Of course, anyone who knows anything about sports and personal training realizes that you work out to get in shape to play basketball--you don't play basketball to get into shape. It is good that Redd has finally understood this. Mannix noted that part of the transformation of Redd's attitude took place as a result of playing for Team USA and observing up close the work ethic and practice habits of Kobe Bryant. Redd explained, "In our practices everybody wanted to stop everybody. But Kobe, man, he never took a possession off."

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posted by David Friedman @ 3:29 PM

3 comments

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Team USA Olympics Report Card

After Team USA went 5-0 during the pre-Olympic exhibition tour, I wrote a report card for SlamOnline. Kobe Bryant, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade were the three "A" students. Not surprisingly, they also finished at the top of the class on my Olympics report card as well.

Players are listed in order of minutes played because that statistic provides a hint about Coach Mike Krzyzewski's evaluation. Wade, James, Bryant and Anthony were Team USA's four leading scorers, so I also included their box score statistics in the one and done medal round play (the final three games). It should go without saying--but I'll say it anyway--that it is not meaningful to compare a player's numbers in 40 minute games played under FIBA rules with his numbers in 48 minute games played under NBA rules. A better yardstick is to consider how the top players from the 1992 Dream Team performed. Charles Barkley led the 1992 Dream Team in scoring (18.0 ppg) while shooting .711 from the field. He averaged 4.1 rpg (tied with David Robinson for third on the team) and 2.4 apg. Michael Jordan ranked second in scoring (14.9 ppg), second in assists (4.8 apg), led the team in steals (37) and averaged 2.4 rpg. Jordan shot .451 from the field--worse than any player other than little used Christian Laettner--and just 4-19 (.211) from three point range. Karl Malone ranked third in scoring (13.0 ppg) and tied with Patrick Ewing for the team lead in rebounding (5.3 rpg). Chris Mullin (12.9 ppg) and Clyde Drexler (10.5 ppg) were the other double figure scorers. Scottie Pippen (9.0 ppg) led the team in assists (5.9 apg) and ranked second in steals (23).

The grades listed below represent how well a particular player filled his respective role on the team; obviously, some players had bigger roles than others, so a bench player's "B" does not mean the same thing as a starter's "B." Production when games were close is given a heavier weight than production that took place after the victories were already well in hand.

I recorded on court/off court data throughout the Olympics for five players: Bryant, James, Wade, Carmelo Anthony and Jason Kidd. These numbers simply indicate how many points Team USA scored and how many points Team USA's opponents scored when a given player was in the game; this data provides a very rudimentary indication of a player's impact but it does not include "game state" information such as which other players were on the court at the same time or how close the score of the game was: production is more significant when it takes place against the toughest opponents in close games, as opposed to statistics that are accumulated against reserves at the end of blowouts.

LeBron James (24.8 mpg, 15.5 ppg, 3.8 apg, 5.3 rpg, 19 steals, eight blocked shots overall; 26.7 mpg, 15 ppg, 2.7 apg, 6.7 rpg, 7 steals, one blocked shot in medal round play)

James led Team USA in steals and blocked shots, ranked second in scoring and assists and shot .602 from the field, including .464 from three point range. The only negatives on his ledger were free throw shooting (.458) and turnovers (a team-high 17). James put up the best overall box score numbers of any player on the team. As Doug Collins noted during several of the telecasts, James played terrific help defense on the back line, blocking shots and getting steals. Not surprisingly, James' minutes went up during medal round play and he continued to post excellent box score numbers.

Team USA outscored the opposition by 154 points overall when James was on the court and they outscored the opposition by 50 points when James was on the court during the medal round games.

Grade: "A"

Kobe Bryant (23.5 mpg, 15.0 ppg, 2.1 apg, 2.8 rpg, nine steals, four blocked shots overall; 28 mpg, 19 ppg, 2.7 apg, 3.3 rpg, three steals, three blocked shots in medal round play)

Bryant ranked third on Team USA in scoring, fourth in assists and steals and first in three pointers made. He finished right behind James in turnovers (15) and, like James, did not shoot very well from the free throw line (.583). Bryant shot .462 from the field and .321 from three point range but after his much celebrated 1-15 start from behind the arc in the first two games he shot 16-38 (.421) the rest of the way.

As soon as Bryant joined the team he immediately asked to be assigned the task of guarding the best perimeter player on each opposing team. That was Bryant's primary responsibility for Team USA and he did an excellent job in this regard. He often took a back seat offensively but when the chips were down in the medal round Bryant averaged a team-high 19 ppg while shooting .500 from the field and .375 from three point range. He dominated the fourth quarter of the 118-107 win over Spain in the gold medal game, scoring 13 points and adding two assists in that final stanza.

Team USA came up short in the three previous major FIBA competitions (2004 Olympics, 2006 and 2002 FIBA World Championship) primarily because of a lack of on court leadership, poor defense and the inability or unwillingness of anyone to step up in crucial moments in medal round games. James and Wade each had superb tournaments in the 2008 Olympics--very similar to their performances in the 2006 FIBA World Championship--but the difference this time around was that Bryant provided precisely what Team USA had been missing in the three areas mentioned above.

Team USA outscored the opposition by 134 points overall when Bryant was on the court and they outscored the opposition by 52 points when he was on the court during the medal round games.

Grade: "A"

Chris Paul (21.9 mpg, 8.0 ppg, 4.1 apg, 3.6 rpg, 18 steals, 0 blocked shots overall)

Paul led Team USA in assists and free throw percentage (.917), tied for second in steals and he easily had the best assist/turnover ratio (3.67/1). Paul forced a lot of turnovers with his ball pressure but on occasions he let his man get by him off of the dribble, resulting in defensive breakdowns. He padded some of his numbers in the fourth quarters of blowouts but in several games he also provided a nice spark off of the bench to help Team USA build large leads.

Grade: "B+"

Carmelo Anthony (19.1 mpg, 11.5 ppg, .4 apg, 4.3 rpg, eight steals, two blocked shots overall; 22 mpg, 16.3 ppg, .3 apg, 3.3 rpg, two steals, one blocked shot in medal round play)

Anthony ranked fourth on Team USA in scoring and rebounding. He tied for the team lead in fouls committed. Only three players had fewer assists (Bosh, Boozer and Prince). Anthony led Team USA in scoring during the 2007 FIBA Americas tournament and the 2006 FIBA World Championship, so his scoring output in the Olympics has to be considered a major disappointment, particularly in light of his dismal field goal percentage (.422, lower than every other player except Redd). Anthony's .481 two point field goal percentage was also the second lowest on the team and he was the only player among the top seven scorers who did not shoot at least .600 on two point shots. Before the Olympics, Anthony vowed to average 10 rpg and to break the Team USA single game Olympic rebounding record but he never came close to doing either of those things. The main positive for Anthony is that he shot .828 from the free throw line, the one area where Bryant, James and Wade struggled.

Anthony increased his scoring to 16.3 ppg in medal round play but that number is deceptive: he shot .382 from the field in those three games and even though he led Team USA in scoring versus Argentina (21 points) he shot 3-14 from the field in that contest.

Team USA outscored the opposition by 86 points overall when Anthony was on the court and they outscored the opposition by just 25 points when Anthony was on the court during medal round play. Among the five players I tracked, Anthony is the only one who had a negative on court rating for an entire game--and this happened twice: Angola outscored Team USA 46-42 when Anthony was on the court and in the gold medal game Spain outscored Team USA 49-38 when Anthony was on the court. It is no coincidence that Anthony was not in the game for the last eight minutes of the fourth quarter of the gold medal game; throughout the Olympics, Anthony was often on the bench when Team USA made its best runs and when he was in games during such runs it was generally James, Wade and/or Bryant who shouldered most of the load.

Grade: "C-"

Deron Williams (19.0 mpg, 8.0 ppg, 2.8 apg, 2.3 rpg, six steals, 0 blocked shots overall)

Williams ranked second on Team USA in free throw percentage (.900) and third in assists. He did a good job of using his size and strength to penetrate opposing defenses. He made a few bad gambles defensively and was sometimes careless with his ballhandling but overall he did a very solid job.

Grade: "B"

Dwyane Wade (18.8 mpg, 16.0 ppg, 1.9 apg, 4.0 rpg, 18 steals, one blocked shot overall; 19.3 mpg, 15.7 ppg, 1.7 apg, 4.7 rpg, six steals, 0 blocked shots in medal round play)

Wade led Team USA in scoring, tied for second in steals and he ranked second in three point shooting percentage (.471) among players who attempted more than two three pointers. Wade shot a blistering .671 from the field overall, trailing only Howard and Bosh among players who attempted at least one shot a game (Kidd shot 6-7 from the field). Wade struggled a bit from the free throw line (.634) and at times made some risky defensive gambles but his overall play was superb. He clearly has healed completely from his injuries and regained--if not increased--his previous athletic ability and explosiveness.

Wade did not start one game; he usually came off of the bench midway through the first quarter to replace Anthony, though sometimes foul trouble altered that rotation. Wade's on court numbers (not his own stats per se, but rather Team USA's scoring margin when he was in the game) benefited from not sharing minutes with Anthony, while Bryant and James' numbers were dragged down a bit in this regard. As a sixth man who played limited minutes, Wade had the advantage of being fresh and from playing against either reserve players or tired starters; after just two minutes of play in the second quarter of Team USA's 92-69 win over Greece, Wade asked to come out of the game because he was totally gassed. None of this diminishes how well Wade played but it goes a long way toward explaining why Wade came off of the bench instead of starting, why he did not play as many minutes as Bryant or James and why people should not be quick to assume that this performance means that Wade will be on the All-NBA First Team this season; in order for Wade to resume being an elite level NBA player he will have to be able to stay healthy and productive while playing 35-plus mpg over the course of an 82 game season.

Team USA outscored the opposition by 161 points overall when Wade was on the court and they outscored the opposition by 48 points when Wade was on the court during the medal round games.

Grade: "A"

Chris Bosh (17.3 mpg, 9.1 ppg, .3 apg, 6.1 rpg, two steals, six blocked shots overall)

Bosh led Team USA in rebounding and field goal percentage (.774) and he ranked second in free throw percentage (.862). He was perhaps the most pleasant surprise; Wade's performance was more a matter of him getting healthy than anything else, but Bosh supplanted Howard as Team USA's most effective big. Bosh not only played very well in the paint at both ends of the court but he also did a great job of helping to defend on the perimeter against screen/roll plays. His emergence relegated Boozer to mop up duty and further reinforced a theme that I emphasized all along, namely that Team USA did not need another big on the roster; USA Basketball managing director Jerry Colangelo was right to bolster the team's size and defensive flexibility on the perimeter, fully realizing that Team USA would only play one traditional big at a time. In terms of FIBA play, Bosh proved to be a better big than Amare Stoudemire, who played in the 2007 FIBA Americas tournament but decided to rest his knees this summer.

Grade: "A"

Dwight Howard (16.1 mpg, 10.9 ppg, .5 apg, 5.8 rpg, five steals, seven blocked shots overall)

Howard ranked second on Team USA in rebounding, blocked shots and field goal percentage (.745) and fifth in scoring. He was not quite as dominant or effective as he was in the 2007 FIBA Americas tournament in terms of field goal percentage and blocked shots but Team USA faced tougher opposition in this event. Howard sometimes got caught up in retaliating against opposing players and he seemed to get into Coach Krzyzewski's dog house a couple times. Nevertheless, he started every game at center, scored in double figures and was a physical presence in the paint at both ends of the court. His screen/roll defense was not nearly as good as Bosh's.

Grade: "B+"

Jason Kidd (13.5 mpg, 1.6 ppg, 2.0 apg, 2.6 rpg, five steals, two blocked shots overall)

Despite his limited minutes, Kidd ranked fourth on Team USA in assists. He famously did not shoot frequently but he made his attempts count by converting six of his seven shots. The only downside for Kidd is that he forced a few passes, resulting in 12 turnovers. During the Olympics, Kidd somehow turned into the player that fan bloggers loved to hate. Yes, his boxscore numbers will not blow anyone away but he was USA Basketball's Player of the Year in 2007 after he put up similar numbers in the FIBA Americas tournament: 15.8 mpg, 1.8 ppg, 4.6 apg, 3.3 rpg, 13 steals, five blocked shots). The way that Kidd and Team USA played in that event paved the way for this year's Olympics triumph. Although Kidd is a triple double king in the NBA, in FIBA play his value is not captured by numbers alone. Team USA struggled defensively in recent years, particularly in the backcourt, but the addition of Bryant and Kidd to the starting lineup not only fixed that problem but resulted in the rest of the players stepping up their defense as well. Kidd is a winner. I don't like to mix NBA or NCAA stats with FIBA stats but it is worth mentioning that there is a consistent pattern throughout Kidd's career that teams he joins increase their winning percentage and that teams he leaves experience a decline in winning percentage.

From a minutes standpoint, Kidd took a backseat to youngsters Paul and Williams, though it should be noted that Paul and Williams played almost all of the garbage time minutes; the minutes when games were up for grabs were pretty evenly split among that trio.

Kidd had a game-high seven assists in Team USA's 101-81 semifinal victory over Argentina. The semifinal round was the graveyard for Team USA in the 2006 FIBA World Championship and the 2004 Olympics but this time around Kidd made sure that this would not happen; early in the second half he did an excellent job of setting down Team USA's halfcourt offense, making sure that Howard got the ball in the paint.

Team USA outscored the opposition by 69 points overall when Kidd was on the court and they outscored the opposition by 31 points when he was on the court during medal round play.

Grade: "B+"

Tayshaun Prince (11.0 mpg, 4.3 ppg, .3 apg, 1.9 rpg, three steals, one blocked shot overall)

Prince, Redd and Boozer were clearly the last men on the bench for this team but Prince received more non-garbage time minutes than Redd and Boozer did. Prince led Team USA in three point field goal percentage (6-11, .545), though he obviously did not shoot nearly as many three pointers as Wade, James and several others. Prince shot .591 from the field overall but his real value is that he is a long armed defender who can guard multiple positions; that makes him a more valuable FIBA player for Team USA than a one dimensional shooter like Redd.

I gave Prince an "I" (incomplete) in my previous report card but since his non-garbage time minutes increased during the Olympics he showed enough to get a regular grade this time.

Grade: "B+"

Michael Redd (9.1 mpg, 3.1 ppg, .5 apg, 1.1 rpg, two steals, 0 blocked shots overall)

Redd was the darling of many so-called experts, the player whose outside marksmanship would supposedly be vital for Team USA to win the gold medal. Last year, I did a post titled Team USA Needs Bruce Bowen More Than it Needs Michael Redd and I have consistently and repeatedly stated that Redd--who is a very good NBA player--would be nothing more than a spare part on this squad for the following reasons: Team USA's primary focus has to be defense, Team USA has several players who are better perimeter defenders than Redd who can also make the shorter FIBA three point shot and it is much more important for Team USA to defend opposing three point shooters than it is for Team USA to make three pointers.

Redd shot .323 from the field in the Olympics, including .278 from three point range. He rarely appeared on the court before the victory was completely secured; in the gold medal game he did not check in until the final seconds.

Considering that Redd is a pure shooter who had by far the worst shooting percentage on the team it is tempting to give him an "F" but that would not really be fair considering his limited playing time. However, can we please stop hearing about how Team USA needs pure shooters like Redd, Mike Miller and (I hope no one is serious about this) J.J. Redick?

Grade: "I"

Carlos Boozer (6.0 mpg, 3.3 ppg, .3 apg, 1.9 rpg, two steals, 0 blocked shots overall)

I thought that Howard would play about 20 mpg and that Boozer and Bosh would average roughly 10 mpg each but Bosh played so well that he grabbed some minutes from both Howard and Boozer. Contrary to the dire predictions that Team USA did not have enough size up front, the reality proved to be exactly what I predicted: Team USA's versatile perimeter defenders wreaked havoc, James and Anthony took turns playing power forward and Team USA only needed one true NBA big on the court at a time; sometimes Team USA went with a small lineup with no true NBA bigs.

Boozer was a spare part for this team and any other big (Tyson Chandler is the name that came up most often) that people wanted to add either in his place or instead of one of the perimeter players would also have been a spare part.

Grade: "I"

Final thoughts:

Anthony (19.9 ppg), Wade (19.3 ppg) and James (13.9 ppg) were the three leading scorers on the 2006 version of Team USA that settled for the bronze medal in the FIBA World Championship. Howard and Elton Brand split the starting duties at center, while Bosh came off of the bench. Chris Paul started six of nine games at point guard and led the team in assists.

Anthony played much worse in this year's Olympics than he did for Team USA in 2006, while Wade and James performed comparably offensively and better defensively this time around. Bosh received more minutes in 2008 and played better defensively. However, if you compare the rosters, the statistics and the visual evidence, the obvious difference between this version of Team USA and the previous versions came at the defensive end of the court. In 2006, Team USA opponents shot .462 from the field and .349 from three point range; in 2008, Team USA opponents shot .403 from the field and .299 from three point range. The defensive improvement began when Colangelo added Bryant and Kidd to the roster: Colangelo says that, Krzyzewksi says that, the team's scouts say that and the players say that.

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posted by David Friedman @ 7:40 PM

8 comments

Thursday, August 07, 2008

Team USA Pre-Olympic Exhibition Tour Report Card

My report card for Team USA's Pre-Olympic Exhibition Tour has been published at SlamOnline. You can check it out here:

Team USA Exhibition Tour Report Card

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posted by David Friedman @ 2:05 PM

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Saturday, July 26, 2008

Team USA Opens Exhibition Tour With 120-65 Win Over Canada

Team USA began its five game pre-Olympic exhibition tour with a 120-65 win over Canada in the State Farm USA Basketball Challenge at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas. Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade and Michael Redd led Team USA with 20 points each. Anthony added six rebounds and three assists, while Wade had three rebounds, two assists and three steals and Redd shot 6-8 from the field, with all of his attempts coming from three point range. Kobe Bryant contributed 15 points, three rebounds, three assists and two steals while filling the defensive stopper role that he has played with perfection since joining the squad last summer for the FIBA Americas tournament. Dwight Howard scored six points on 3-3 field goal shooting and grabbed a game-high seven rebounds as Team USA enjoyed a 38-24 rebounding advantage. Jason Kidd had a stat line that belied his real value to the team: five rebounds, zero assists and zero points (he did not attempt a field goal or free throw and was the only Team USA player who did not score). What those numbers don't show are how Kidd defended tenaciously, continually pushed the ball up the court and threw several great passes that resulted in scores but were not assists--not to mention the leadership that he provides for this team on a daily basis in practice. Team USA often used Chris Paul and Deron Williams at the same time, with Bryant sliding over to small forward; Paul had 11 points and a game-high eight assists (one more than Canada's entire team), while Williams added 14 points and five assists.

LeBron James did not play due to a sprained ankle. Wade started in his place and thus there were about 20-25 extra minutes of playing time to distribute, so it will be interesting to see whose minutes get cut once James returns; Wade will be the sixth man but he will probably play about the same number of minutes that he did in this game (18). Last month, in the comments section of my Analyzing Team USA's 12 Man Roster post, I predicted that in the Olympics Howard will average about 20 mpg, with Chris Bosh and Boozer each averaging about 10 mpg. Howard played 19 minutes against Canada, Bosh played 14 and Boozer made an eight minute cameo appearance. Certain matchups, foul trouble and/or injuries could of course change things in a given game but at the end of the Olympics I am confident that their minutes will indeed average out to right around 20-10-10.

ESPN broadcast this game, with Rick Kamla doing the play by play and Fran Fraschilla providing color commentary. Just before tipoff, Fraschilla listed three keys for Team USA:

(1) Build chemistry
(2) Establish pressure defense
(3) Make outside shots

These teams played almost a year ago in the FIBA Americas tournament, with Team USA improving to 3-0 after a 113-63 win that was remarkably similar to this contest in several respects: last year Team USA led 28-21 after the first quarter, 65-34 at halftime and 95-49 after the third quarter, while Team USA enjoyed 30-24, 61-38 and 95-56 leads respectively after the first three quarters this time around. Last year, Anthony led Team USA with 25 points, Redd scored 19 points and Bryant had 15 points.

Canada may be the weakest squad that Team USA faces this year but Canada was game ready simply by virtue of the fact that they had just played in the Olympic Qualifying Tournament in Athens (Canada lost to Croatia 83-62 and will not participate in the Beijing Olympics). It is interesting to see to what extent preparation can be an equalizing factor even for an overmatched team like Canada (yet another reason it is important for Team USA to not only insist on a three year commitment by players but also to play these kinds of exhibition games prior to the main event): Team USA looked sloppy in the first quarter, committing numerous turnovers and allowing Canada to shoot 5-8 from three point range. While people often talk about how important it is for Team USA to make three point shots, I have consistently maintained that it is even more important for Team USA to do a good job defending against the three point shot: most FIBA teams rely heavily on three pointers and if you take that weapon away from them their offenses are much less effective. The FIBA three point shot is only 20'6" (compared to 23'9" around the arc in the NBA and 22' in the corners) and the reality is that everyone on Team USA can make that shot fairly easily except for Howard, Boozer and possibly Bosh, three players who should not be shooting from that far out anyway; you don't have to be an NBA three point specialist to make 20 foot jump shots.

Team USA only led 30-24 after the first 10 minutes and neither team had scored a fast break point; the significance of that statistic is that Team USA will probably never execute a half court FIBA offense as well as well as FIBA teams that have played together for years so it is vitally important for Team USA to force turnovers and score in transition. Team USA's defensive intensity and focus picked up noticeably in the second quarter. Bryant forced a turnover that led to a fast break opportunity for Redd, who was fouled and split a pair of free throws. Normally, teams attack a defensive weak link, not a defensive strong link, but for some inexplicable reason Carl English went one on one versus Bryant on the next two possessions, missing shots both times. Bryant drove to the hoop and dished to Boozer, who was fouled and made two free throws. Then Canada hung English out to dry, having him bring the ball up the court against Bryant with no help; naturally, Bryant ripped English cleanly and sailed in for a fast break dunk and a 35-25 lead. Fraschilla mentioned several times that in FIBA--unlike the NBA--there are no rules against hand checking and consequently the perimeter play can be very physical. Bryant noticeably takes advantage of that difference, playing a much more physical and aggressive brand of defense in FIBA competition than he would be allowed to in the NBA; Kidd and Wade also do this and hopefully all Team USA perimeter defenders will adjust to this as well.

Late in the second quarter after Deron Williams drove to the hoop, looked to pass and drew a foul, Fraschilla observed, "If there's anything going on right now it's almost too much unselfishness by Team USA. A lot of the turnovers in the first half are caused by guys who are supposed to be big-time scorers trying to make the unselfish play."Anthony and Wade led Team USA with 12 points each in the first half, shooting 5-9 and 4-4 from the field respectively, while Bryant had nine points on 4-5 field goal shooting.

Neither team did much posting up and even though Canada is not a strong FIBA team this is typical of what to expect in FIBA play and illustrates the value of having a roster full of versatile perimeter players as opposed to one overstocked with superfluous post players. Keep in mind that Anthony is a great power forward in FIBA and that James is essentially the same size as Boozer and Boozer's Utah predecessor Karl Malone, so there is no reason that James cannot play power forward if necessary.

The second half was essentially "extensive gar-bage time," as Marv Albert would put it; Canada never seriously threatened. As the final horn sounded, Fraschilla said of Team USA's performance, "Impressive team chemistry. The defense was solid, the outside shooting was pretty solid. There is still some work to be done. They'll get better and better. It will be an interesting Olympics and it won't be easy."

Team USA Coach Mike Krzyzewski was pleased with his squad's pick and roll defense, an area that has been Team USA's fatal weakness in recent FIBA events. After the game, he said, "Two years ago (in the FIBA World Championship, where Team USA settled for the bronze medal) we didn’t X and O, we didn’t have time in building our infrastructure and all that, we weren’t as good X and O wise as we are now. We’ve taken the input from these guys of how they wanted to defend it, we studied it, we have a good plan. We have I think a very good plan against it and then you have to execute the plan. A lot of it is making sure that the pick and roll is played by five guys and not two."

Kidd added, "Defensively we played well, we just have to work on not giving up so many 3-point shots, and then just taking care of the ball and getting good looks." Although Team USA held Canada to .333 field goal shooting, Canada shot 9-23 from three point range (.391) and they had too many open looks from deep, particularly in the first quarter. Team USA shot 11-22 from three point range but many of those treys came when they already had a huge lead and it is not hard to do the math and calculate that if they had made no three point shots they would have still won by 22 points. The number one key for Team USA is to play good pressure defense: that will shut down the three point shooting of opposing teams while also making it difficult for teams to establish a postup game.

Just like I did during my coverage of last year's FIBA Americas tournament, I tracked the on court/off court numbers of several Team USA players. Team USA outscored Canada 67-40 when Bryant was on the court and 53-25 when he was off the court. Carmelo Anthony played the vast majority of his minutes alongside Bryant, so his numbers were very similar (69-43 and 51-22 respectively). The blowout gave Coach Krzyzewski the opportunity to play Kidd for just 16 minutes; Team USA outscored Canada 47-25 when he was on the court and 73-40 when he was off the court. Team USA outscored Canada 52-29 when Dwyane Wade was on the court and 68-36 when he was off the court. Of course, these numbers are skewed a bit by the production of the reserve players when the game was well in hand, so it is perhaps more significant to note that Team USA outscored Canada by 15 (41-26) in the first half when Bryant was on the court, by 14 (41-27) when Anthony was on the court, by 13 when Wade was on the court (30-17) and by 12 (25-13) when Kidd was on the court.

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posted by David Friedman @ 4:14 AM

19 comments

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Analyzing Team USA's 12 Man Roster

On Monday, USA Basketball announced the 12 man roster that will comprise the 2008 U.S. Olympic basketball team. Five of the 12 have participated in the Olympics previously (Carmelo Anthony, Carlos Boozer, LeBron James, Jason Kidd and Dwyane Wade); the only U.S. team that had more Olympic veterans was the 1996 squad--that unit welcomed back six players from the 1992 U.S. Olympic team, the only group that truly deserved the "Dream Team" designation. Eight members of the 2008 team played in the 2007 FIBA Americas tournament, which Team USA won with a 10-0 record; here is a list of those eight players, along with some of their statistics from the 2007 FIBA Americas tournament.

Carmelo Anthony (21.2 ppg, .613 FG%, .578 3Pt FG%, 5.2 rpg, 1.4 apg in nine games)
LeBron James (18.1 ppg, .760 FG%, .622 3Pt FG%, 3.6 rpg, 4.7 apg in 10 games)
Kobe Bryant (15.3 ppg, .548 FG%, .459 3Pt FG%, 2.0 rpg, 2.9 apg in 10 games)
Michael Redd (14.4 ppg, .530 FG%, .453 3Pt FG%, 1.4 rpg, 1.5 apg in 10 games)
Dwight Howard (10.0 ppg, .814 FG%, 5.3 rpg, 18 blocked shots in 10 games)
Tayshaun Prince (7.3 ppg, .481 FG%, .357 3Pt FG%, 5.0 rpg, 2.1 apg in nine games)
Deron Williams (4.7 ppg, .613 FG%, 5-10 3Pt FG, 1.0 rpg, 4.6 apg in 10 games)
Jason Kidd (1.8 ppg, 6-10 FG, 5-8 3Pt FG, 3.3 rpg, 4.6 apg in 10 games)

Amare Stoudemire and Chauncey Billups played in 2007 but withdrew their names from the selection process this time around. Tyson Chandler played the fewest minutes on the 2007 team and Mike Miller had the second lowest field goal percentage on the 2007 team. Those four players have been replaced by Carlos Boozer, Chris Bosh, Chris Paul and Dwyane Wade.

In addition to the Olympic and international experience listed above, the current roster has the 2008 NBA MVP (Bryant), four of the five members of the 2008 All-NBA First Team (Bryant, James, Howard and Paul) plus a 2008 All-NBA Second Team selection (Williams) and a 2008 All-NBA Third Team selection (Boozer).

Since the debacles for Team USA in 2002, 2004 and 2006, USA Basketball has emphasized that it wants a three year commitment from players so that the team can develop cohesion and chemistry. That is why the fifth member of the 2008 All-NBA First Team, Kevin Garnett, is not on the roster. USA Basketball managing director Jerry Colangelo said of Garnett, "We never got any positive feedback of his interest. It was more about 'I've been there, I've done that and it's time for someone else to do it.' I had a number of conversations with his agent just to check the temperature of the water, and there was never any positive response. We would have loved to have had him...but obviously, it wasn't in the cards."

The key additions to the 2007 team were Kobe Bryant and Jason Kidd; they quickly emerged as team leaders because of their professionalism, work ethic and defensive intensity, three qualities that had been noticeably missing on recent editions of Team USA. U.S. Coach Mike Krzyzewski said, "Kobe is unbelievably committed to representing his country. Last summer playing for our team, the first time he saw his uniform, he got emotional...The first thing he did for us last summer, he was our best perimeter defender--and that's a role he wanted...I think we'll start out with the same thing because he knows he can play that way and expend the energy on defense because of the offensive talent of his teammates...We usually put him on the best perimeter player on the opposing team whether it be a point guard or a wing, and that's how we started the game. And that's how I want to start our practice sessions with that in mind." Bryant sacrificed some of his offensive game to concentrate on defense but still managed to finish third on the team in scoring and fourth in assists.

In a December 5, 2007 post, I mentioned some things that Suns General Manager Steve Kerr told me that then-Suns Coach Mike D'Antoni--a Team USA assistant coach--had said about Bryant's role on Team USA:

Prior to each game in last summer's FIBA Americas tournament, Bryant asked the coaching staff, "Who do you want me to take out?" In other words, Bryant wanted to know who was the toughest perimeter threat on each team so that he could study his tendencies on film and then completely neutralize him on the court. I said to Kerr, "That sounds like a sniper zeroing in on a target" and Kerr replied, "Yeah--and he was serious." Kerr went on to say that Bryant's "focus" and "bravado" added an essential missing element to the squad and elevated everyone else's play. Kerr noted that the previous Team USA squad had performed reasonably well other than the infamous loss to Greece but that it lacked a certain "swagger," as he termed it, and that Team USA did not have a "player who everyone feared." Kerr literally shook his head in wonderment as he described Bryant's impact on Team USA.

Kidd's leadership came in a much subtler form; there is virtually no statistical evidence of it, other than the fact that he ranked second on the team in assists--but make no mistake that he played a very key role on the team. He has never lost a game while wearing a Team USA jersey and he made it clear that he does not intend on ending that streak now.

The usual starting lineup of Bryant, Kidd, James, Anthony and Howard generally led the team to such big early leads that players like Redd, Stoudemire and Williams put up a lot of their numbers in de facto garbage time. Though casual fans probably assume that Chris Paul will be the starting point guard, I expect Coach Krzyzewski to use the same starting lineup during the Olympics that he employed during the FIBA Americas tournament; Kidd only ended up playing 15.9 mpg because Team USA won so many blowouts but I think that it is important to start the game with a group that has played together before in FIBA competition. This is not some All-Star exhibition in which Team USA can rotate who starts. Paul may end up playing more minutes than Kidd, particularly if Team USA builds big leads, but I would be surprised if Coach Krzyzewski changes his starting lineup.

The main early criticism of the 2008 roster is the supposed lack of big men but I disagree with that assessment. Chandler hardly played at all in the 2007 FIBA Americas tournament and although Stoudemire rebounded well he was not much of a defensive presence (six blocked shots in 10 games). Boozer and Bosh should be more than able to replace them, so this team is deeper and more versatile up front than the 2007 squad. Furthermore, the most effective style of play for Team USA in FIBA events is to go small, play pressure defense, force turnovers and score in the open court. Carmelo Anthony and LeBron James can easily play power forward in such a lineup, so on this team they are essentially "bigs" also. As for the perimeter players, Billups and Miller were two of the least productive members of the 2007 team, so it is difficult to believe that there will be any drop off by replacing them with Paul and Wade.

Thus, the 2008 team should be even better than the 2007 squad, though it is also true that the competition at the Olympics will be much tougher than the competition at the FIBA Americas tournament.

Anthony will almost certainly be Team USA's leading scorer. He feeds off of the open court scoring opportunities provided by the pressure defense of Bryant, Kidd and James and he is also a tough cover in the half court for most FIBA forwards. If anything, Anthony plays even worse defense in FIBA competition than he does in the NBA but he is such an efficient scorer--and the other four starters defend so well--that his offensive output outweighs his defensive liabilities (which was not the case in the 2004 Olympics, when Bryant and Kidd were not on the team and James did not defend nearly as well as he does now).

Some quotes from Anthony and Wade give an indication of why they failed to lead the 2004 and 2006 teams to gold medals. Anthony said that he joined the 2004 team expecting to have "some of the best workouts in the summertime with the best players in the world" and he assumed "the USA is supposed to win everything." Wade candidly admitted that being an Olympian had never been a dream of his, adding, "I didn't have a clue what I was getting into...Now, we respect the game so much. We respect the team basketball that they play internationally so much." You don't have to read too far between the lines to understand that in 2004 Anthony and Wade underestimated the competition that they faced and did not realize how much hard work and intensity would be necessary to win the gold medal. Now, they know better and the team has a much better leadership structure--with Bryant and Kidd on board no one will be taking any shortcuts in practice or at the defensive end of the court (well, Anthony probably will still take some shortcuts there but the team can survive that as long as he keeps shooting over .600 from the field).

The prevailing myth about Team USA's failure to win gold medals in the 2002 FIBA World Championship, the 2004 Olympics and the 2006 FIBA World Championship is that a lack of outside shooters proved to be fatal. However, as I demonstrated in a September 4, 2007 post titled The Real Story Behind Team USA's Losses in Previous FIBA Events, what really killed those teams was poor defense, particularly regarding the short three point shot (20'6" as opposed to 23'9" in the NBA) that FIBA teams love to launch. It is absolutely vital that Team USA shut down the three point shooters on opposing teams and that they do so without leaving the lane open to cutters; shooting well from the three point line would certainly be a nice bonus but perimeter defense will be the linchpin of Team USA's success. Good perimeter defense will fuel transition offense that will result in open three pointers and fast break dunks; the gaudy field goal percentage posted by Team USA in 2007 was largely the result of great defense leading to high percentage scoring opportunities in transition.

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posted by David Friedman @ 4:28 AM

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