20 Second Timeout

Initial Impressions of the Three Team Trade Sending Damian Lillard From Portland to Milwaukee

Once again, the vaunted (and highly paid) NBA insiders were right: Damian Lillard is heading to Miami!

Oh, wait--I mean, Damian Lillard is heading to Toronto!

Never mind--in a deal not predicted by anyone, the Portland Trail Blazers have reportedly shipped Damian Lillard to the Milwaukee Bucks in a three team trade that will send Jrue Holiday from Milwaukee to Portland. The Phoenix Suns joined the party by trading Deandre Ayton to Portland in exchange for Trail Blazers Jusuf Nurkic, Nassir Little, and Keon Johnson. The Suns also acquired Milwaukee's Grayson Allen, while Portland is receiving Toumani Camara (the 52nd overall selection in the 2023 NBA Draft) from Phoenix, and multiple draft picks from Milwaukee. I emphasize "reportedly" because the same wizards who had no clue that this deal would happen have been the first people to "break" the news before the transactions have been officially confirmed, and we all know the great value of non-emergency "breaking news."

Assuming that what has been reported is accurate--at least in terms of the most prominent players involved in the trade--what should we make of this deal?

Damian Lillard--who valued loyalty above everything until he no longer valued loyalty over everything--averaged a career-high 32.3 ppg last season. He is a dynamic scorer and an excellent passer--and he is also 33 years old, undersized (generously listed as 6-2, but probably shorter), a non-factor (at best) defensively, and injury-prone (he has played in 67 games or less in each of the past four seasons). Lillard is a member of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team, which must have surprised and disappointed more deserving players such as Chris Bosh, Adrian Dantley, Alex English, Artis Gilmore, Dwight Howard, Bernard King, and Tracy McGrady.

By the way, it is ridiculous to assert that Portland "owed" it to Lillard to trade him wherever he wanted to go. In 2022, Lillard signed a two year $121.77 million contract extension to stay with Portland instead of becoming a free agent; if Lillard wanted to choose his destination on the way out, that was his opportunity--but Lillard understood that no other team would be willing (or able) to pay him as much as Portland did, so he took the cash and gave up the option of choosing where to go on the way out of Portland. During Lillard's Portland career, the Trail Blazers paid him more than $220 million; that is nearly a quarter of a billion dollars, so Portland paid Lillard generational wealth and owes him nothing else. It should also be noted that all of that money bought four playoff series wins spread out over 11 seasons and 12 playoff series. Two of those four playoff series wins happened during Portland's fluky run to the 2019 Western Conference Finals, where "Dame Dolla" and crew got swept by the Golden State Warriors sans Kevin Durant. After 2019, the Trail Blazers lost in the first round in 2020 and 2021 before missing the playoffs in 2022 and 2023. If Lillard's salary was based on being a superstar whose skills correlate with playoff success, then it could be argued he owes Portland!

Jrue Holiday is a 33 year old two-time All-Star who made the All-Defensive Team in each of his three seasons with Milwaukee (and has earned five All-Defensive Team selections overall). He was a key member of Milwaukee's 2021 NBA championship team. Last season, he exceeded his career averages (16.4 ppg, 6.5 apg, 4.1 rpg) in scoring (19.3 ppg), assists (7.4 apg), and rebounding (5.1 rpg). His shooting splits last season were .479/.384/.859, but his playoff shooting splits have consistently been worse than that throughout his career. 

Deandre Ayton has averaged a double double in each of his five NBA seasons, and his career averages of 16.7 ppg and 10.5 rpg are quite good for a player who has never been the first (or second) option. Nevertheless, something is missing in terms of attitude/motor--or, at least that is the Suns' story--so it is not surprising that the Suns parted ways with the talented big man.

A good rule of thumb is that the "winner" of an NBA trade is the team that received the best player. Conventional wisdom would say that Lillard is clearly the best player and thus Milwaukee clearly won the deal--but it must be remembered that Milwaukee's primary goal is to win as many championships as possible before Giannis Antetokounmpo retires (or leaves via free agency), so Milwaukee only "won" if Lillard is a better fit on a championship team than Holiday. This is not about "logo shots" or marketing or popularity. The Bucks won one championship in three seasons with Holiday; it will be interesting to see (1) if Lillard has three productive seasons left and (2) if Milwaukee wins three, two, one, or zero championships in the next three seasons. 

I planned to pick Milwaukee to win the Eastern Conference before this trade, and I still plan to pick Milwaukee to win the Eastern Conference now--but I am skeptical of the notion that the Bucks are significantly better after swapping Holiday for Lillard. I like the Bucks because of Antetokounmpo's greatness, and his ability to bring out the best in his teammates, not because of Lillard's "logo shots" and situational loyalty.

As for Portland, the Trail Blazers were going nowhere fast with Lillard, and they are going nowhere fast now--but that does not mean this was a bad trade for them. Lillard put them over a barrel by not only demanding to be traded but by insisting that he would only play for Miami, a statement that limited his trade value and curtailed Portland's options. Portland General Manager Joe Cronin deserves credit for not caving in to Lillard and for creating a better deal than anyone thought he could.

The Suns will ride or die with Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal doing the heavy lifting. If each member of that trio is healthy and productive, the Suns will be formidable. Nurkic may fit in better than Ayton from a chemistry standpoint, but Ayton and Nurkic are comparable in terms of overall talent/impact (though their skill sets are not identical). However, Nurkic is injury-prone, so chemistry will not matter unless he is actually on the court.

The bottom line is that each team needed to make a move, for different reasons. The Trail Blazers had to get the most that they could for the disgruntled Lillard, the Bucks had to do something to appease Antetokounmpo (who has recently made comments suggesting that he might leave in free agency if the roster is not upgraded), and the Suns had to add some depth while also figuring out how to either bring Ayton into the fold or send him on his way.

Thus, from the standpoint of reasonable expectations and available options, each team probably did about as well as possible in this deal.

Labels: Damian Lillard, Deandre Ayton, Jrue Holiday, Milwaukee Bucks, Phoenix Suns, Portland Trail Blazers

posted by David Friedman @ 12:17 AM

16 comments

Jokic Dominates as Nuggets Take 2-0 Series Lead Over Suns

The number one seed that few commentators seem to respect and that every team supposedly wanted to face is now up 2-0 versus a Phoenix Suns team that many observers crowned as a future champion. Nikola Jokic, the reigning two-time regular season MVP, was by far the best player on the court, scoring a game-high 39 points on 17-30 field goal shooting, pulling down a game-high 16 rebounds, and passing for five assists as his Denver Nuggets beat the Suns, 97-87. Jokic may not look or move like some people expect a basketball player to look or move, but he is intelligent, skillful, and STRONG; that combination of traits means that he knows where to go, he knows how to get there, and no one is able to stop him from getting there. Some people used to think that European players are soft. Many of these European players grew up in war zones; they are not soft, and they do not back down from fake tough guys who try to send messages with cheap shots (hello, Markieff Morris).

The Nuggets won despite Jamal Murray having an off game (10 points on 3-15 field goal shooting), Michael Porter Jr. disappearing (five points on 2-7 field goal shooting), and their bench players combining to score just 13 points (it helped the Nuggets that the Suns' bench players scored only four points). 

Devin Booker, who ranks just behind Jimmy Butler in the 2023 NBA playoffs scoring race, scored 35 points on 14-29 field goal shooting while also passing for six assists and grabbing five rebounds. Kevin Durant had an uncharacteristically inefficient game, scoring 24 points on 10-27 field goal shooting. Deandre Ayton--whose self-proclaimed "Dominayton" nickname does not seem likely to age well--had 14 points and eight rebounds. Chris Paul had a quiet game (eight points, six assists, five rebounds in 25 minutes) before suffering a groin injury in the third quarter that forced him to miss the rest of the game; his status for game three (and the rest of the series) has not been publicly revealed. I have sympathy for Paul and I hope that he makes a quick, full recovery, but let's be honest--a Chris Paul playoff injury is predictable under any circumstances, and even more so now that the Suns' bench is thin: in my series preview, I wrote that "it is just a matter of time before one or more of the Suns' starters either wears down or gets injured. Booker, Durant, and Paul have all been injury-prone in recent seasons even without carrying the workload that they are currently shouldering."

Game two was very different stylistically from game one, when the Nuggets beat the Suns in a 125-107 shootout. Murray shined in that game (34 points, nine assists, 13-24 field goal shooting), and Jokic added 24 points, 19 rebounds, and five assists. Aaron Gordon contributed 23 points and six rebounds. Durant led the Suns in scoring (29 points) and rebounding (14 rebounds), but he had seven turnovers. Booker scored 27 points.

Thus, we have seen the Nuggets beat the Suns in a shootout, and we have seen the Nuggets grind down the Suns in a sloppy, low scoring game. The Suns will most likely be more efficient and productive at home, but if Paul is unable to play then their thin bench will be stretched to the breaking point. Booker can shift to point guard but is he going to play 48 minutes? If not, who is going to take up those minutes?

Building a championship team is not easy, nor should it be. It is understandable why the Suns traded away much of their depth to acquire two-time NBA Finals MVP Durant, but you cannot just throw a few talented players together with little practice time and a barren bench and then expect them to win a seven game series against an experienced team that has been together for a while and earned the top seed in the Western Conference. The LeBron James-Dwyane Wade-Chris Bosh Miami Heat did not win a championship in their first season together despite having a full training camp and a full regular season together--and those three players were each in their primes. Paul is past his prime, and Durant is no youngster, even though he still plays at an All-NBA Team level.

The 2011 Dallas Mavericks did not have a single elite player other than Dirk Nowitzki--Jason Kidd is an all-time great, but he was well past his prime by then--but they beat the James-Wade-Bosh super team in the NBA Finals. A similar storyline, albeit two rounds earlier, seems to be unfolding in this Denver-Phoenix series. 

If the Nuggets advance and then go on to win the championship, Jokic is not going to channel LeBron James in the Orlando "bubble" and whine, "I want my respect," but Jokic has more than earned respect by the way that he plays and the way that he leads his team.

Labels: Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, Denver Nuggets, Devin Booker, Jamal Murray, Kevin Durant, Nikola Jokic, Phoenix Suns

posted by David Friedman @ 11:51 AM

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Denver Versus Phoenix Preview

Western Conference Second Round

#1 Denver (53-29) vs. #4 Phoenix (45-37)

Season series: Tied, 2-2

Phoenix can win if…Kevin Durant is the best player in the series, Devin Booker averages more than 25 ppg, and Deandre Ayton scores efficiently while racking up double doubles. Chris Paul is the fourth option now and he is only expected to carry a fraction of the load that he shouldered during his prime, but the Suns need for him to stay healthy and not wear down, both of which have been issues throughout his playoff career.

During the Suns' 4-1 first round win versus the L.A. Clippers, Booker scored 37.2 ppg while shooting .602 from the field. That is by far the best playoff series performance of his career, as he had never previously averaged 30 ppg in a playoff series, and he had only once shot at least .500 from the field in a playoff series.

Durant averaged 28.4 ppg, 7.6 rpg, and 6.2 apg during the first round with shooting splits of .518/.458/.956. That is not too shabby for the second option! Of course, Durant is the first option, but the point is that when opposing teams tilt their defense toward him that gives Booker room to go wild.

Field goal attempts are sparse at times for Ayton, but he played well against the Clippers, averaging 16.0 ppg and 11.2 rpg while shooting .530 from the field. 

Paul had pedestrian numbers by his standards in the first round (13.6 ppg, 8.2 apg, and 6.0 rpg with shooting splits of .414/.348/.500) but the main thing that the Suns need from him is to just stay healthy enough to play 35-40 mpg so that they do not have to rely on their thin bench too often.

Denver will win because…Nikola Jokic is the reigning two-time regular season MVP, and he has an excellent, underrated supporting cast. Jokic averaged 26.2 ppg, 12.4 rpg, and 9.0 apg as the Nuggets beat the Minnesota Timberwolves 4-1 in the first round. Those numbers mirror his outstanding regular season production: 24.5 ppg, 11.8 rpg, 9.8 apg. Jokic ranked second in the league in rebounding, third in assists, and 18th in scoring.

Jamal Murray led the Nuggets in scoring in the first round (27.2 ppg) while also contributing 6.4 apg and 5.6 rpg. Four Nuggets other than Jokic and Murray scored at least 10.4 ppg in the first round: Michael Porter Jr. (16.4 ppg), Aaron Gordon (13.4 ppg), Bruce Brown (11.4 ppg), and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (10.4 ppg).

The Nuggets' starters match up well enough with the Suns' starters, but some of the key moments in this series could happen when both teams go to their benches; I would expect the Nuggets to win those minutes, which could persuade Phoenix Coach Monty Williams to shorten his rotation, which could result in his starters becoming worn down or injured.

The Nuggets somehow managed to fly under the radar despite finishing with the best record in the Western Conference before dispatching the Timberwolves without much trouble. It is difficult to think of another top seeded team at full strength that has been so lightly regarded.

Other things to consider: Denver reached the Western Conference Finals in 2020 before battling injuries in the next two seasons. Now, the Nuggets are healthy, and they have a roster that is both deeper and more talented than their 2020 roster.

The Suns have tremendous firepower at the top of their roster, but they traded away much of their depth to acquire Durant. The Suns also lack quality size other than Ayton and Durant. Lack of depth and lack of size add up to a team that can be worn down over the course of a seven game series. Three of the Suns' starters--Booker, Durant, and Paul--each averaged at least 38.5 mpg during the first round, with Booker and Durant each averaging more than 43 mpg. I wish no ill toward any of their players, but realistically it is just a matter of time before one or more of the Suns' starters either wears down or gets injured. Booker, Durant, and Paul have all been injury-prone in recent seasons even without carrying the workload that they are currently shouldering.

Due to injuries, the Clippers lacked the necessary talent and depth to keep pace with the Suns, but the top seeded Nuggets are well-equipped to challenge the Suns.

Labels: Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, Denver Nuggets, Devin Booker, Jamal Murray, Kevin Durant, Nikola Jokic, Phoenix Suns

posted by David Friedman @ 11:56 PM

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Suns Outlast Valiant but Shorthanded Clippers, Advance to Second Round Showdown Versus Nuggets

Devin Booker scored a game-high 47 points on 19-27 field goal shooting while also passing for a game-high 10 assists and grabbing eight rebounds to lead the Phoenix Suns to a 136-130 victory versus the L.A. Clippers. Kevin Durant added 31 points, six rebounds, and four assists, while Deandre Ayton had 21 points plus a game-high 11 rebounds. The Suns won this first round series 4-1, and will face the Denver Nuggets--who eliminated the Minnesota Timberwolves, 4-1--in the second round. I will provide in depth analysis of the both the Nuggets and the Suns in my series preview article, so the remainder of this article will focus on the Clippers.

The Clippers were without the services of injured stars Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, two players who load managed their way through the regular season to preserve themselves for the playoffs only to be unavailable when it mattered the most. L.A. Clippers Coach Tyronn Lue offered this succinct comment during his postgame press conference: "Take the two best players off any team in the league and see if they can win in the playoffs."

Norman Powell led the Clippers with 27 points. Mason Plumlee added 20 points off of the bench, and he tied Ivica Zubac for team-high honors with 10 rebounds. Russell Westbrook paced the Clippers with eight assists and he snared eight rebounds, but he scored just 14 points on 3-18 field goal shooting. 

It is difficult to beat a team featuring a trio scoring 99 points on 38-64 field goal shooting (.594), but the shorthanded Clippers never gave up despite trailing by as many as 20 points in the fourth quarter. The Clippers outscored the Suns 36-18 in a little over eight minutes to cut the lead to 130-128 with 2:46 remaining in the contest. The Clippers had several opportunities to tie the score or take the lead, but they just could not get over the hump.

Westbrook was the only Clippers' starter who played all 12 fourth quarter minutes, contributing four assists while committing one turnover; he scored two points on 1-4 field goal shooting, but his energy and passing fueled the comeback. It is easy to nitpick his shooting percentage and his shot selection--and there is no doubt that many commentators will spend a lot of time doing that--but if you watched this game, this series, and this season with understanding then you know that Westbrook is still an excellent player who can make a significant contribution to a winning program. After the game, Coach Lue praised Westbrook for saving the Clippers' season and enabling them to make this playoff run. Paul George has publicly stated that he wants the Clippers to bring Westbrook back next season.

It is not contradictory or illogical to state that the Clippers would have benefited from Westbrook shooting a better field goal percentage while also acknowledging that without Westbrook's other contributions the Clippers would not have been competitive at all in this game, let alone in this series.

Long-time readers who are familiar with my critiques of James Harden's annual playoff collapses may wonder how Westbrook's poor shooting in an elimination game is different than James Harden's playoff "concert tour" shooting percentages. That is easy--Harden's playoff choking is about more than just missing shots (although he misses plenty of shots); he also often plays in a disinterested, detached, and unenergetic manner, which is the exact opposite of how Westbrook plays. There is a big difference between missing shots while playing hard versus missing shots while going through the motions.

Again, it is fair to say that Westbrook should be expected to shoot a better percentage than he did in game five, but Westbrook's shooting must be placed in the overall context of his performance during this series--including the fact that, as Coach Lue stated, the Clippers had no realistic chance to prevail with both of their top two players out of the lineup.

Not too long ago, the L.A. Lakers and their media sycophants tried very hard to destroy Westbrook's reputation and end his career. It is great that he escaped from the Lakers and proved that he can still play at a high level. 

Labels: Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, L.A. Clippers, load management, Norman Powell, Phoenix Suns, Russell Westbrook

posted by David Friedman @ 2:33 AM

17 comments

Suns Outlast Mavericks, 130-126

The Phoenix Suns improved to 3-0 with Kevin Durant in the lineup after defeating the Dallas Mavericks, 130-126. Durant scored a game-high 37 points while shooting 12-17 from the field (including 3-5 from three point range) and 10-10 from the free throw line. He also had seven rebounds and three assists. Devin Booker scored 36 points on 15-25 field goal shooting (including 1-3 from three point range), and he contributed a game-high 10 assists, nearly matching the assist total (15) of the isolation-heavy Mavericks. Ish Wainright scored 12 points off of the bench in just 14 minutes while shooting 4-6 from the field, including 4-5 from beyond the arc. Chris Paul had a solid but quiet game (11 points, seven assists, six rebounds), while Deandre Ayton grabbed a game-high 16 rebounds and made the most of his limited offensive opportunities (nine points on 4-6 field goal shooting). Thanks mainly to Ayton, the Suns dominated the boards, 41-31.

Luka Doncic led the Mavericks with 34 points, but he shot just 8-23 from the field while amassing five turnovers to go along with four assists and a team-high nine rebounds. Kyrie Irving scored 30 points on 10-19 field goal shooting, and he topped the Mavericks with seven assists. Tim Hardaway Jr. (21 points) and Christian Wood (17 points) provided 38 of Dallas' 48 points off of the bench.

The Mavericks humiliated the top-seeded Suns in a game seven rout last year to advance to the Western Conference Finals, but both teams recently made significant personnel changes. The Suns gave up Mikal Bridges, Jae Crowder, Cam Johnson, and four first round draft picks to acquire Durant, while the Mavericks shipped out Spencer Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith, a 2029 first round draft pick, and multiple second round draft picks to acquire Irving. Both teams sacrificed depth and potential future resources to try to win now. It will be very interesting to see how those decisions pan out not only in the 2023 playoffs but in the years to come. Losing Jalen Brunson in free agency last summer hurt the Mavericks, and they gave up a lot of value with the hope that Irving can not only replace Brunson but augment what Brunson provided during last year's playoff run. The Suns desperately need Durant to provide the clutch scoring that was missing during their 2021 and 2022 playoff runs, and they will also need for him to be active defensively to make up for the losses of Bridges and Crowder, two excellent defensive players.

It was a treat to listen to Hubie Brown do the color commentary for this game. I believe that his most recent game prior to this was Milwaukee's 128-99 rout of Miami on Friday February 24. Brown made several timely and most relevant observations. For instance, both teams frequently complained about the officiating. Brown said that within the first five to seven minutes of a game you can figure out--as a coach or as a player--how that game is being officiated. Whether or not you agree with how the game is being officiated, once you know what is happening it is important to adjust to it, not complain, and not cost your team points by getting technical fouls. It is vital to not let the officiating style throw your game off, regardless of whether the game is being called very tightly, or the game is being called very loosely. Luka Doncic in particular could benefit from hearing (and heeding) Brown's counsel on this topic, as Doncic wastes far too much time and energy complaining to the officials.

Regarding how to incorporate newly acquired players into the rotation in the middle of the season, Brown emphasized that newly acquired players must accept the game plan at both ends of the court while also adjusting to any differences in style between their previous coaching staff and their current coaching staff.

Throughout the game, Brown was on point in detecting and explaining momentum changes. He also broke down the strategic decisions made by both coaching staffs.

It is obvious that the Mavericks have a shortage of good defensive players, and that the Mavericks lack size. Jeff Van Gundy recently--and correctly--noted that small teams rarely win championships. If you watch the Mavericks closely then you will notice that Coach Jason Kidd--a great defensive player during his long Hall of Fame career--uses various schemes and rotations to compensate for Dallas' lack of size and dearth of plus defenders. Versus the Suns, the Mavericks packed the paint to cut off driving lanes and midrange shots for Durant and Booker, willingly conceding three point shots to Josh Okogie, who shot 3-13 from the field overall while missing all eight of his attempts from beyond the arc. In the second half, Wainright punished the Mavericks' scheme by making the same open three pointers that Okogie had been missing. One could call this defense "He with us"--that is how Jalen Rose refers to the thought process behind consistently leaving an opposing player wide open--and if the Suns' role players make those open shots during the playoffs then the Suns will be very difficult to guard. The Mavericks' offense mainly consists of Doncic or Irving isolating to either score or else generate an open three point shot for someone else. The playoff games that the Mavericks win this year will feature Doncic and Irving each scoring 25-plus points while the team makes at least 15-20 three pointers, while the playoff games that the Mavericks lose will feature Doncic or Irving being contained while the three point shooters are off target. The Mavericks are unlikely to be involved in--let alone win--low scoring defensive slugfests.

The Suns' main weakness is lack of depth. The drop off when Durant is not on the court is dramatic. That is a concern because Durant has not been able to stay healthy for the past several years: he has played in 55 games or less each season since 2018-19, including missing the entire 2019-20 season because of a ruptured right Achilles tendon suffered in game five of the 2019 NBA Finals. Durant has not made a full playoff run past the second round since he led the Golden State Warriors to the 2018 championship (the Warriors reached the 2019 NBA Finals, but injuries limited Durant to playing in just 12 of the Warriors’ 22 playoff games). The current iteration of the Suns led by Booker, Paul, and Ayton squandered a 2-0 NBA Finals lead over the Milwuakee Bucks in 2021 and then suffered the aforementioned epic game seven collapse versus the Mavericks last season after posting the NBA's best regular season record. Paul is almost 38 years old, and he has been injury-prone throughout his career, but it is worth noting that even the 26 year old Booker has hardly been a paragon of durability. It is reasonable to expect that both Paul and Booker will miss some playoff games, which puts an even greater onus on Durant to be available and highly productive.

Labels: Chris Paul, Dallas Mavericks, Deandre Ayton, Devin Booker, Hubie Brown, Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, Luka Doncic, Phoenix Suns

posted by David Friedman @ 8:05 AM

17 comments

Suns Go All-In With Kevin Durant Acquisition

The Phoenix Suns squandered a 2-0 lead over the Milwaukee Bucks in the 2021 NBA Finals, and they suffered a humiliating game seven home loss to Dallas in the second round of the 2022 playoffs, so it is evident that the Devin Booker-Chris Paul-Deandre Ayton trio is missing a crucial ingredient to win a title.

Enter Kevin Durant, two-time NBA champion/two-time NBA Finals MVP. The Suns acquired Durant and T.J. Warren from the Brooklyn Nets in exchange for Mikal Bridges, Jae Crowder, Cam Johnson, and four first round draft picks (the Nets subsequently sent Crowder to the Milwaukee Bucks). The Suns gave up a lot of valuable assets, but they acquired an all-time great player who is averaging 29.7 ppg this season while leading the league in free throw percentage (.934). I love Bridges' versatility, his commitment to play in every game--no load management for him--and his tough defense, but the price for Durant is understandably high even considering his age and injury history.

Durant is an elite three level scorer who is also an above average rebounder, passer, and defensive player. He will command double teams and space the floor to open up opportunities for Booker--who made the All-NBA First Team last season--and others. The injury-riddled Suns rank 21st in scoring and 22nd in field goal percentage this season, but they ranked fifth and first respectively in those categories last season--when they enjoyed better health--and with Durant in the fold they could emerge as the league's most efficient and productive offense.

It is fair to wonder about the Suns' chemistry--Crowder refused to play for the Suns, Ayton's relationship with Coach Monty Williams has been tempestuous at times, and Paul's teams often suffer from internal strife despite his reputation for being a great leader--but on paper the Suns have superior top level talent, solid depth, and impressive versatility. It is premature to crown them as championship favorites--after all, Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving were expected to lead Brooklyn to a championship but they never carried the Nets past the second round--but there is no doubt that the Suns have the potential to be exceptional at both ends of the court. Durant, Booker, and Paul are midrange assassins, the Suns were a very good three point shooting team even before acquiring Durant, and the Suns' already excellent defense should not miss a beat with Durant playing either forward position.

Regarding the Nets, in less than a week they traded away Durant and Irving, and they went from at least believing/hoping that they could be a championship contender to understanding that they are in a transition phase. The Nets lack star power, but they still have several very good players, and they are capable of reaching the playoffs with their current roster. It will be interesting to see if the Nets try to add a star in the offseason, or if they go into full rebuilding mode.

While the Nets sort out their long term future, it is stand and deliver time for the Suns and specifically for Chris Paul, who is often praised as "the best leader in the NBA." Paul's teams have blown five 2-0 series leads, his Clippers squandered a 3-1 lead versus the Rockets in 2015, his game seven record is 3-5, and--as noted above--his Suns disappeared in game seven at home versus Dallas last year. Every time Paul loses, excuses proliferate like weeds in an unmaintained yard. Now, Paul has an MVP caliber small forward, an MVP caliber shooting guard, an All-Star caliber center, and solid role players. If he does not finish his career with at least one NBA title, there are no acceptable excuses.

Labels: Brooklyn Nets, Cam Johnson, Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, Devin Booker, Jae Crowder, Kevin Durant, Mikal Bridges, Phoenix Suns

posted by David Friedman @ 11:39 PM

8 comments

Suns Top Mavericks Despite Luka Doncic's 45 Points

Despite a scintillating performance by Luka Doncic, the Phoenix Suns led wire to wire to capture their sixth straight game one win, beating the Dallas Mavericks, 121-114. Luka Doncic scored 45 points on 15-30 field goal shooting, ripped down a game-high 12 rebounds, and tied Devin Booker with a game-high eight assists in 44 minutes, but that was not enough to prevent Phoenix from building a 21 point lead before cruising to victory. Doncic now has more 40 point playoff games than any player younger than 24 in NBA history (six, breaking the mark of five set by Rick Barry). Doncic is not as athletic or explosive as LeBron James, but his big impact on multiple box score columns is reminiscent of how the young James had a multi-faceted box score impact at the beginning of his playoff career.

The Suns' countered Doncic's singular excellence with a balanced attack. Deandre Ayton scored 25 points on 12-20 field goal shooting, and he grabbed eight rebounds. Booker had a nice all-around game (23 points, nine rebounds, eight assists) despite not shooting very well from the field (7-20) in his second game back after missing three first round games due to a hamstring injury. Chris Paul finally missed a shot after pitching a perfect game to close out the New Orleans Pelicans in the first round, but he did not miss many shots: he scored 19 points on 7-13 field goal shooting, and he also had five rebounds and three assists. Paul's +14 plus/minus number led both teams. 

The Mavericks had their way with the Utah Jazz in the first round, but other than Doncic versus anyone they have no matchup advantages versus the Suns. The Suns run a very efficient offense that probably can only be slowed down by a team that is big enough to control the paint but athletic enough to keep up with Booker, Paul, and the other Phoenix perimeter players.

Labels: Chris Paul, Dallas Mavericks, Deandre Ayton, Devin Booker, Luka Doncic, Phoenix Suns

posted by David Friedman @ 1:42 AM

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Phoenix Versus Dallas Preview

Western Conference Second Round

#1 Phoenix (64-18) vs. #4 Dallas (52-30)

Season series: Phoenix, 3-0

Dallas can win if…the Mavericks continue making a high volume of three pointers while shooting efficiently from beyond the arc. The Mavericks averaged 15.5 3FGM/game in their six game first round win over the Utah Jazz, the highest average in the 2022 playoffs so far, and a significant increase over the 13.1 3FGM/game that they averaged during the regular season. The Mavericks' strategy versus the Jazz was to bomb away from long range to minimize Rudy Gobert's defensive impact, the same approach that helped the L.A. Clippers defeat the Jazz in last year's playoffs. That strategy is unlikely to be effective versus the Suns, who ranked fifth in the league in three point defensive field goal percentage during the regular season. 

Luka Doncic missed the first three games of the first round due to injury, but the Mavericks surprisingly went 2-1 without him before going 2-1 with him. Doncic averaged 29.0 ppg, 10.7 rpg, and 5.7 apg against Utah. He must post even better numbers against Phoenix for Dallas to pull off the upset. Doncic is a special player, and he has the ability to be the best player in this series. He is not a high flyer, nor does he have blazing speed, but he is strong, crafty, and quicker in small spaces than he may look. Defensive players rarely can speed him up or slow him down; Doncic operates at his pace, gets to the spots on the court he wants to get to, and then decides whether to shoot or pass. His game is an interesting combination of Oscar Robertson's all-around skills and Chris Mullin's mastery of change of pace.

Jalen Brunson starred while Doncic sat out--including a 41 point outburst in Dallas' game two win, enabling the Mavericks to seize home court advantage--and Brunson had an outstanding series overall (27.8 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 4.2 apg). 

The Jazz killed the Mavericks on the boards (44.8 rpg to 37.7 rpg) but that did not matter because the Mavericks made so many three pointers and because the Mavericks turned the ball over so infrequently.

Before hiring Jason Kidd as their coach, the Mavericks lacked a defensive identity, and they had not won a playoff series since 2011, when Kidd was the point guard for their championship team. Now, the Mavericks are vastly improved defensively, and it is no coincidence that they just won a playoff series for the first time in 11 years. 

Phoenix will win because…the Suns demonstrated over the course of the 82 game season that they have the best, most well-rounded team in the league. The Suns have no significant weaknesses, ranking among the league leaders in most key offensive and defensive categories. Their lack of size hurt them versus Milwaukee in the 2021 NBA Finals but few teams have big players who are skilled enough to bother the Suns. The Suns hunt advantageous matchups on offense, and they cover for each other on defense. They are very well-prepared by Coach Monty Williams, and they tend to neither get rattled if they fall behind nor complacent if they are ahead. It will take a complete, well-coached team to beat the Suns in a seven game series (assuming that the Suns stay healthy).

The Suns shot .523 from the field in their six game first round win versus the New Orleans Pelicans, and their top four scorers each shot at least .500 from the field. Devin Booker (23.0 ppg) shot .500 from the field, Paul (22.3 ppg, 11.3 apg) shot .567 from the field--including his record-setting 14-14 game six performance--and Deandre Ayton (20.5 ppg, 9.8 rpg) shot .700 from the field. Mikal Bridges, an elite defensive player, scored 17.3 ppg while shooting .551 from the field. The Mavericks' improved defense will be put to the test by a Phoenix team that not only has good shooters but also has great shot selection.

Other things to consider: Booker just came back from a hamstring injury that forced him to miss the second half of game two and all of games three through five in the first round, and he has had hamstring issues off and on in recent years. If he misses significant time during this series, the Suns' margin for error shrinks significantly. Chris Paul was magnificent in the game six clincher versus New Orleans but he had an up and down series, and he has a career-long pattern of wearing down and/or getting injured as the playoffs progress. Booker being out of action and/or Paul being out or ineffective are the main factors that could swing this series in Dallas' favor. Otherwise, I see Dallas getting hot from long range and stealing one of the first two games in Phoenix before the Suns win the series in six games.

Labels: Chris Paul, Dallas Mavericks, Deandre Ayton, Devin Booker, Jalen Brunson, Luka Doncic, Phoenix Suns

posted by David Friedman @ 11:12 PM

2 comments

Antekounmpo Dominates as Bucks Capture Their First NBA Title Since 1971

Giannis Antetokounmpo refused to let his Milwaukee Bucks lose, imposing his skill and will at both ends of the court en route to scoring a game-high 50 points, grabbing a game-high 14 rebounds, and blocking a game-high five shots as the Bucks defeated the Phoenix Suns 105-98 to capture the franchise's second NBA championship. Antetokounmpo shot 16-25 from the field and 17-19 from the free throw line in one of the most complete and dominant Finals performances ever. Antetokounmpo is just the seventh player to score at least 50 points in an NBA Finals game, joining Elgin Baylor (61), Rick Barry (55), Michael Jordan (55), Jerry West (53), LeBron James (51), and Bob Pettit (50). Anteokoumpo tied Pettit for the most points scored in a Finals-clinching victory, and he became just the sixth player to have at least three 40 point games in one NBA Finals. Antetokounmpo is the first player to have at least 50 points, at least 10 rebounds, and at least five blocked shots in a playoff game since the NBA made the blocked shot an official statistic in 1973-74

Antetokounmpo was an easy choice for Finals MVP, joining Michael Jordan and Hakeem Olajuwon on the short list of players who have won a regular season MVP, a Finals MVP and a Defensive Player of the Year award (the Finals MVP was first awarded in 1969, and the Defensive Player of the Year award was first bestowed in 1983). There was some foolish talk before this game about whether Antetokounmpo or Khris Middleton should receive the Finals MVP if the Bucks clinched the title in game six--but anyone who watches basketball with understanding realized, even before Antetokounmpo's historic game six performance, that Antetokounmpo is by far the best player on either team. Middleton is an outstanding--and often underrated--player, but he does not have the same impact in any area of the game that Antetokounmpo does. Antetokounmpo averaged 35.2 ppg, 13.2 rpg, and 5.0 apg in the Finals while shooting .618 from the field, the first player in Finals history to post all of those numbers in the same series. His 35.2 ppg is the third highest scoring average posted by a player in his NBA Finals debut; Rick Barry and Allen Iverson scored more in their Finals' debuts, but both played for the losing team.

Middleton capped off a nice series with a solid performance, posting 17 points, five rebounds, and five assists while shooting 6-13 from the field. Jrue Holiday again struggled with his shot (4-19 field goal shooting), but he played great defense and he finished with 12 points, a game-high 11 assists, and nine rebounds (more than anyone except for Antetokounmpo and Phoenix forward Jae Crowder, who had 13). Bobby Portis came up big with 16 points on 6-10 field goal shooting in 23 minutes off of the bench. 

Chris Paul led the Suns with 26 points on 11-19 field goal shooting and he tied Devin Booker for team-high honors with five assists. Booker scored 19 points but shot just 8-22 from the field. Crowder scored 15 points on 4-11 field goal shooting, while Deandre Ayton had just 12 points on 4-12 field goal shooting, plus six rebounds. A major key for the Bucks was to limit Ayton's effectiveness in the paint without having to tilt their defense in a way that opened up opportunities for Booker and Paul. Ayton posted field goal percentages of .796, .610, and .693 in the first three rounds of the playoffs, but the Bucks held him to .531--a very good number, but obviously a big decline from the three series that the Suns won.

The Bucks built a 13 point first quarter lead, but the Suns came all the way back to go ahead by seven in the second quarter. The Suns led 47-42 at halftime, and it may have seemed like the game and the series were up for grabs--but the reality is that Antetokounmpo was poised to take over, and do whatever was necessary for the Bucks to prevail. He has had well-documented struggles at the free throw line, but that did not deter him from relentlessly attacking the hoop and drawing fouls. This is very valuable even when he misses his free throws, because the fouls put the opposing team in foul trouble and put the Bucks in the bonus, which creates free throw opportunities for their players who are good free throw shooters. In game six, though, Antetokounmpo shot 17-19 from the free throw line. Inconsistent or poor free throw shooters often claim to "make them when they count," but in this game Antekounmpo really did that.

The Bucks were up 58-55 after Antetokounmpo made a pair of free throws and then added a putback off of his own miss. At that point, he had shot 7-11 from the field since the start of the second quarter, while the rest of the Bucks shot 2-19 from the field during that span. The best player on a championship team has the obligation and responsibility to score prolifically, particularly in physical playoff games when points are hard to obtain. It is not enough to "make the right play" and pass to teammates who may not have the necessary skill or will to score in certain situations. Kobe Bryant won five championships because he understood and embraced this mentality from day one; LeBron James did not win his first title until he understood and embraced this mentality, after enduring Finals losses during which he was outplayed by smaller, less-skilled players such as Tony Parker and Jason Terry.

While his teammates struggled, Antetokounmpo scored 20 third quarter points on 6-11 field goal shooting, and the score was tied 77-77 heading into the fourth quarter. This was Antetokounmpo's second 20 point quarter in the 2021 NBA Finals after no player had even one such quarter since Michael Jordan did it in 1993. Antetokounmpo is the only player in the past 50 years to have two 20 point quarters in the same NBA Finals.

Antekounmpo added 13 fourth quarter points as the Bucks outscored the Suns 28-21 in the final stanza. Throughout the game it seemed like he was in multiple places at once, blocking shots, grabbing rebounds, and then attacking the hoop with force. By the end of the game, any Sun attempting a shot anywhere near Antetokounmpo was noticeably hesitant, if not blatantly intimidated; Ayton shied away from attempting a dunk and instead threw up a soft fadeaway when challenged by Antetokounmpo. Any time Antetokounmpo was switched onto Paul the matchup looked like the big brother not letting the little brother even get off a good shot. Size matters in the NBA, so even if Paul's skills were as good as Antetokounmpo's he still would not be nearly as good of a player as Antetokounmpo because Antetokounmpo is seven feet tall while Paul is barely six feet tall. This clinching game and this series provided a vivid demonstration of what I have been saying for years about players like Steve Nash and Chris Paul: they cannot possibly be as good or as dominant--particularly when it counts the most--as bigger players such as Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Tim Duncan, Dirk Nowitzki, Kawhi Leonard, or Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Labels: Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, Devin Booker, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, Milwaukee Bucks, Phoenix Suns

posted by David Friedman @ 3:19 AM

8 comments

Bucks Mount Big Comeback, Win Game Five in Phoenix

The Phoenix Suns looked unbeatable while building a 16 point lead in the first quarter of game five of the NBA Finals versus the Milwaukee Bucks, but the well-coached and highly focused Bucks kept their poise, outscored the Suns 43-24 in the second quarter, and achieved a 123-119 road victory to move within one win of capturing the 2021 NBA title. The game five winner of an NBA Finals series that is tied 2-2 wins the series 72% of the time, so even though I tend to avoid referring to "legacy games" it is possible that this was the most important game in the careers of several future Hall of Famers.

Giannis Antekounmpo scored a team-high 32 points while also grabbing a team-high nine rebounds, and dishing for six assists. He shot 14-23 from the field, the 13th straight playoff game in which he has shot at least .500 from the field. Antetokounmpo is the most dominant and efficient playoff scorer in the paint since prime Shaquille O'Neal, and he is demonstrating that paint scoring/paint dominance still matter--regardless of what the "stat gurus" might say. The Suns shot .552 from the field (including .684 from three point range) and .909 from the free throw line, but they could not maintain a double digit lead at home against a bigger and more physical team. Khris Middleton added 29 points, seven rebounds, and five assists while shooting 12-23 from the field. It could be argued that the star of the game was Jrue Holiday, who not only scored 27 points on 12-20 field goal shooting but he also passed for a game-high 13 assists to become just the sixth player in NBA Finals history to score at least 25 points while also assisting on at least 30 points. Holiday played outstanding defense, punctuated by a late steal from Devin Booker that sealed the victory.

Booker scored a game-high 40 points on 17-33 field goal shooting. He is the first player in NBA Finals history to score 40 points in consecutive games but lose both games. He posted a team-best +12 plus/minus number while Chris Paul--who media members anointed the best player on the team and a candidate for regular season MVP honors--had a -6 plus/minus number. Supposedly Paul is leading the Suns, but what is actually happening is Booker is the team's best player and he needs more help from Paul, who finished with 21 points on 9-15 field goal shooting plus 11 assists. Paul's individual numbers were not bad, but he was no better than the fifth best player on the court in arguably the most important game of his career. Deandre Ayton contributed 20 points on 7-12 field goal shooting plus a game-high 10 rebounds.

The Suns made 11 straight field goals in the first quarter, tying the longest such streak in an NBA Finals game in the past 20 years. The Bucks were not impressed or rattled, and they turned a 37-21 first quarter deficit into a 64-61 halftime lead. The Bucks' 43 second quarter points is tied for the second most points in a quarter of an NBA Finals game in the past 35 years. The Bucks attack the paint on offense and focus on defending the paint on defense. They also utilize the midrange game to good effect, as both Middleton and Holiday are lethal in that area of the court. "Stat gurus" may disagree with the Bucks' approach, but there is no denying that what the Bucks are doing is working.

The Bucks led 117-107 after Middleton completed a three point play with 3:25 remaining in the fourth quarter, but the Suns answered with a 12-3 run to pull within 120-119 with 57 seconds left in the game. With the game and likely the series up for grabs, Holiday made the play of the game by not only stripping Booker, but then running point on the fast break and throwing a lob pass to Giannis Antetokounmpo that resulted in a dunk plus a Chris Paul foul. Antetokounmpo missed the free throw but he tipped the offensive rebound to Middleton, who split a pair of free throws to push Milwaukee's lead to 123-119. 

Much is made of Antetokounmpo's poor free throw shooting, but his Bucks just won a very important road playoff game despite his 4-11 free throw shooting. Bill Russell led the Boston Celtics to 11 titles despite being an awful free throw shooter, Wilt Chamberlain was the best player on two of the most dominant single season championship teams ever despite his bad free throw shooting, and Shaquille O'Neal dominated the early 2000s with four championships in seven seasons despite his well-documented free throw shooting issues. It is obviously preferable that a player shoot at least .700 from the free throw line, but the notion that bad free throw shooting by a dominant player can cost his team a championship seems a bit far-fetched. The most important thing to note down the stretch in game five is not how many free throws Antetokounmpo missed but rather (1) the impact that he had on both ends of the court and (2) his eagerness to attack the hoop even though he knew that he would be fouled hard and forced to make free throws. Antetokounmpo is not going to win a free throw shooting contest versus Paul or James Harden or other players who are adored by "stat gurus," but anyone who understands basketball would choose Antetokounmpo over Paul or Harden overall as well as down the stretch of a key NBA Finals game. Harden and Paul together in Houston were not able to win an NBA title, Harden has also now failed to win a title alongside Kevin Durant on two different teams, and Paul has hopped from team to team chasing a championship that Antetokounmpo seems likely to win without jumping around the league to team up with other stars.

It is amazing that even after such a devastating home loss there is still talk about what a great leader Chris Paul is, based on cliches that he uttered during the post-game press conference. You know who has been the best leader in this series by far? Giannis Antetokounmpo. He came back from what looked like a season-ending knee injury to establish himself as clearly the best player in this series through five games, and he has led his team to three straight victories, including a pivotal game five road win. That is leadership--actually accomplishing something, as opposed to talking about accomplishing something. 

Media members keep alluding to some mysterious Chris Paul injury, much like excuses are often made for LeBron James' many playoff failure (to James' credit, he--unlike Paul--has led his teams to four NBA titles)--but it is unlikely that Paul is dealing with an injury as severe as Antetokounmpo's knee injury. Antetokounmpo's injury has become a non-story now because (1) he does not talk about it or allude to it and (2) he has been the dominant player in the series. If Paul is truly injured, that is nothing new--a major reason that he has never won an NBA title is that he wears down and/or gets injured if his teams advance past the first round.

Phoenix could come back to win this series, so it is at least one game too soon to make broad, definitive conclusions, but it seems fair to say--barring an unlikely turn of events--what we have seen thus far in this series demonstrates that (1) Devin Booker, not Chris Paul, is clearly Phoenix' best player, (2) Paul may not be good enough to be the second best player on a championship team, and (3) two-time regular season MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo may actually be underrated as a player and as a leader.

Labels: Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, Devin Booker, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, Milwaukee Bucks, Phoenix Suns

posted by David Friedman @ 2:42 AM

6 comments

Antetokounmpo and Middleton Lead the Way as Bucks Defeat the Suns 109-103 to Tie the Finals at 2-2

Khris Middleton poured in a playoff career-high 40 points, and Giannis Antetokounmpo authored a brilliant all-around performance (26 points, team-high 14 rebounds, game-high eight assists, three steals, two blocked shots--including an electrifying late game snuff of Deandre Ayton) as the Milwaukee Bucks beat the Phoenix Suns 109-103. Jrue Holiday had an excellent floor game (seven rebounds, seven assists, one turnover) but he only scored 13 points on 4-20 field goal shooting. Brook Lopez contributed 14 points in just 19 minutes, though the seven foot center inexplicably only grabbed one rebound. The Bucks outrebounded the Suns 48-40, they outscored the Suns in the paint 48-40, and they led the Suns in fastbreak points 15-0. Size matters in the NBA, it matters more in the playoffs, and it matters the most in the NBA Finals. The Bucks have a seven foot center, a seven foot do-it-all elite player, and several wing players who are tall and/or strong; the Suns are relatively small, and they can be overpowered by teams that are disciplined enough to keep attacking the paint.

Devin Booker--the Suns' best player, regardless of the pro-Chris Paul narratives pushed by many media members--scored a game-high 42 points on blistering 17-28 field goal shooting, but he missed a significant amount of fourth quarter action after committing his fifth foul, and he would have fouled out several minutes before the end of the game if not for a blatantly missed call--a fact admitted by crew chief Jim Capers after the game. Deandre Ayton snared a game-high 17 rebounds, but the Bucks used their size and athleticism to good effect as they held him to 10 points on 3-9 field goal shooting. As for the "Point God," he looked more like "Point Goof" as he accumulated a team-worst -10 plus/minus number in 37 minutes; Paul scored 10 points on 5-13 field goal shooting while dishing for seven assists and coughing up a game-high five turnovers, matching the Bucks' team total in that category. Five turnovers may not sound like an outlandish number, but in an otherwise low turnover game Paul's miscues were costly, all the more so because a couple of them happened late in the fourth quarter with the outcome still in doubt. While Middleton and Antetokounmpo starred throughout the game and were at their best when it mattered most, Paul looked worn down as Milwaukee outscored Phoenix 10-4 down the stretch. 

One of the main reasons that I did not pick Phoenix to win the title is that throughout his career Paul has consistently worn down and/or gotten injured during the playoffs. This postseason, Paul avoided serious injury while each Suns' opponent suffered at least one serious injury to an All-NBA caliber player, but as the Finals progress Paul's play is regressing at a rate that has to alarm the Suns and their fans: Paul helped close out the Clippers in game six of the Western Conference Finals by dropping 41 points, but in the first four games of the NBA Finals his point totals are 32, 23, 19, and 10. He posted between seven and nine assists in each of those games, but his turnovers have gone from zero versus the Clippers in game six to two, six, four, and five against the Bucks. It has taken longer than ever before--in no small part because of the injuries suffered by Phoenix' opponents--but Paul seems to be wearing down like he always does. Maybe he will have a monster game five performance, but if he does that will not only buck the recent trend but also go against the pattern of his entire postseason career. Paul is often called the best leader in the NBA. Where has he been throughout his career when it matters the most? Where was he in the final minutes of game four, when a Phoenix victory would have all but clinched the championship?

The Bucks have recovered from a 2-0 deficit to tie a series at 2-2 for the second time this postseason. "Momentum" is often a media created and media driven narrative, but there is no doubt that the Bucks have now placed tremendous pressure on the Suns to win game five in Phoenix, because otherwise the Bucks can close out the series at home in game six. 

I picked the Bucks to win the championship before the playoffs started, and I did not waver after the Suns took a 2-0 lead. I had good analytical reasons to choose the Bucks, and the outcomes of two games did not undermine or change the basis for my analysis. I am not bragging, nor am I suggesting that the outcome is a foregone conclusion. The Suns could still win this series, but even if they do that would not necessarily prove that my analysis was unsound. I also had good reasons to pick against the Suns in each of the prior three series, but injuries to Anthony Davis, Jamal Murray, and Kawhi Leonard had a significant impact on the outcomes of those series.  

In contrast, many people who have long been touted as basketball "experts" routinely spout nonsense without factual basis, and draw unfounded conclusions. For example, the ridiculous negative assertions made by Stephen A. Smith, Mike Wilbon, Jay Williams, and others about Milwaukee Coach Mike Budenholzer's alleged deficiencies made no sense two games ago, and have aged very poorly as the Bucks have fought their way back into the series. Poorly coached teams do not recover from 2-0 deficits--and poorly coached teams do not post the best regular season record in the NBA in back to back seasons prior to making a run to the NBA Finals.

Smith proved himself to be a clown many years ago, and more recently Kwame Brown has exposed Smith as a loudmouth fraud. Why is ESPN paying Smith millions of dollars to scream at the audience while belittling people who actually are elite at what they do? Brown played in the NBA for over a decade, so he demonstrably and provably was better at playing basketball than 99% of the people in the world. Is Smith demonstrably and provably better than 99% of the people in the world at anything other than being loud, obnoxious, and often wrong? 

Over a decade ago, Wilbon cited incorrect facts to draw illogical conclusions about Kobe Bryant's efficiency as a scorer and effectiveness as a team leader. Wilbon is an excellent general sports columnist/commentator, but he is miscast as an NBA expert. 

Williams played at an elite level in college and he made it to the NBA, so he sometimes says something insightful, but he also had no clue that the Boston Celtics have a long history of hiring Black head coaches. He should be working his way up the food chain providing analysis about college games, not being portrayed as some kind of authority on the NBA game.

I am going to wait until after the NBA crowns a champion before wading into the much-discussed Rachel Nichols/Maria Taylor controversy, but can anyone honestly say that either Nichols or Taylor consistently add something meaningful and profound to the telecasts? In 20 years, NBA fans and historians will still be talking about Antetokounmpo, Middleton, Booker, and Paul, but it is doubtful that many people will remember or care who served as the pregame and halftime host for ESPN/ABC's Finals coverage. It is worth noting that Taylor, ESPN/ABC's newly anointed NBA Finals studio host, was the only one out of 100 media award voters who did not select Anthony Davis for the All-NBA Team after the 2019-20 season (Davis made the First Team after receiving 79 First Team votes and 20 Second Team votes). Taylor's excuse for leaving one of the NBA's top five players completely off of her ballot for the NBA's top 15 players is that she forgot about him. Anyone can make a mistake, and one hesitates to make extreme and/or absolute statements, but it must be asked: How can a media member who "forgets" about one of the league's elite players be elevated to a job that makes her the face of ESPN/ABC's pre-game and halftime NBA Finals coverage?

There is a glaring contrast between ESPN's NBA coverage and the coverage provided by other networks past and present. Look at archival clips of NBC's Bob Costas and Hannah Storm as studio hosts, or watch TNT's Ernie Johnson as a studio host now. Can anyone honestly say that Nichols or Taylor are even close to that level? Not every NBC studio analyst was great, but the overall quality was much higher than ESPN's, and no NBC studio analyst screamed and spewed as much nonsense as Stephen A. Smith does. TNT's studio analysts Charles Barkley, Kenny Smith, and Shaquille O'Neal are the gold standard for combining insight with humor; they do not always agree with each other, and they are sometimes wrong, but they almost always make you think and make you laugh. 

There is an oasis of sanity in ESPN/ABC's NBA coverage. Jeff Van Gundy and Mark Jackson do a first rate job as color commentators during the game telecasts, Mike Breen is an elite play by play announcer, Tim Legler is very good (and underutilized) at breaking down game film on SportsCenter, and Jalen Rose is a very good studio analyst despite his sometimes mixed or muddled messaging on racial issues. One of the reasons that I love tournament chess is that there are no self-proclaimed Experts or Masters in chess; a chess Expert is someone who attains an Expert level rating, and a chess Master is someone who attains a Master level rating--period, point blank, full stop. Who you know, who your parents are, politics, race, gender--those things are irrelevant regarding chess expertise and chess mastery. Unfortunately, in the writing business anyone can become or be proclaimed an expert, even if that person has no achieved no expertise at all.

To the extent that ESPN/ABC's 2021 NBA Finals coverage is remembered at all, it will remembered as distracting from and detracting from the greatness that we are seeing on the court.

Labels: Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, Devin Booker, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton

posted by David Friedman @ 2:13 AM

4 comments

Antetokounmpo Dominates as Bucks Rout Suns in Game Three, 120-100

Giannis Antetokounmpo has not only bounced back from what looked like a possibly devastating knee injury, but he has clearly established himself as the best player in the 2021 NBA Finals. In game three, Antetokounmpo erupted for 41 points on 14-23 field goal shooting, plus a game-high 13 rebounds, and six assists while leading the Milwaukee Bucks to a 120-100 win over the Phoenix Suns. This gem came on the heels of his 42 point, 12 rebound game two masterpiece as Antetokounmpo became just the fourth player in Finals history with back to back games of at least 40 points and at least 10 rebounds, joining Shaquille O'Neal, Julius Erving (who accomplished this feat in the 1976 ABA Finals), and Connie Hawkins (1968 ABA Finals). Erving and O'Neal are Pantheon members, and Antetokounmpo is putting together a body of work that may well merit his addition to that select company. This is Antetokounmpo's 11th playoff game this year with at least 30 points and at least 10 rebounds. With last night's performance he not only broke the single-postseason franchise record for such games set by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in 1974, but he trails only Shaquille O'Neal (13 such games in 2000) and Elgin Baylor (12 in 1962) on the all-time list. Antetokounmpo also ranks fourth for most points scored in a player's first three career NBA Finals games (103), behind only Rick Barry (122), Allen Iverson (106), and Willis Reed (104). Erving scored 103 points in his first three ABA Finals games

Antetokounmpo dominates the paint like elite centers Abdul-Jabbar and O'Neal, but he also has ball-handling skills and open court flair reminiscent of Baylor and Erving. The word unicorn has perhaps become overused--if everyone is a unicorn then the description loses its distinction--but Antetokounmpo's combination of size, strength, and skill set is one of a kind.

The main difference between game three and game two is that Antetokounmpo received little support from his teammates in game two but he received a lot of support in game three as Jrue Holiday (21 points, nine assists, and five rebounds) and Khris Middleton (18 points, seven rebounds, six assists) played not only aggressively at both ends of the court but they also were much more efficient than they had been during the first two games in Phoenix. Holiday (+22) and Antetokounmpo (+20) were the only two players whose plus/minus numbers matched or exceeded the final margin of victory.

Chris Paul had a solid, if not spectacular, game, leading the Suns in scoring (19 points) and assists (nine). Deandre Ayton played well (18 points on 8-11 field goal shooting, nine rebounds) but foul trouble limited him to 24 minutes (the Suns were -6 during those minutes). Jae Crowder added 18 points on 6-7 field goal shooting, but Devin Booker had just 10 points on 3-14 field goal shooting as he and Middleton reversed roles as All-Stars not playing well or efficiently on the road.

The game was close for the first 12 minutes, but the Bucks stuck with their plan to pound the ball inside, and they ended the second quarter with a 30-9 run. Then, they concluded the third quarter with a 16-0 run that made the score 98-76 Bucks with 12 minutes left. The Suns never seriously threatened in the fourth quarter. Overall, the Bucks outscored the Suns in the paint 54-40, and they outrebounded the Suns 47-36. 

This was a must-win game for the Bucks, and they won in convincing fashion, but it is just as much a mistake to overreact to this game as it was to overreact to the Suns' wins in the first two games. If the Suns win game four then they are in the driver's seat, with a chance to clinch the title at home in game five. We do not yet know if this is going to be a series in which home court proves to be the decisive factor, or if the Bucks have turned things around after a slow start, or if the final narrative will be something else altogether. I picked the Bucks to win the title not only prior to this series, but in my 2021 NBA Playoff Predictions, because I think that the Bucks are the league's best all-around team led by the league's best all-around player (though I have no problem with Nikola Jokic winning the 2021 NBA regular season MVP). I see no reason to back down from my initial analysis/prediction, but I also recognize and acknowledge that the Suns are a better team than I thought they were prior to the playoffs.

During the ABC telecast, Jeff Van Gundy decried what he termed "slanderous" comments by people "who don't know anything" about coaching criticizing the alleged "lack of adjustments" by Milwaukee Coach Mike Budenholzer. Van Gundy termed Budenholzer the "punching bag" of the 2021 playoffs. Citing the poet Joseph Brodsky, Van Gundy said that there are only "bad" and "worse" options to defend Chris Paul in screen/roll actions when Paul is hitting his shots, Ayton is so highly efficient, and Booker is a major threat who draws attention from the defense.

Van Gundy did not identify by name the people "who don't know anything" about coaching, but if criticizing Budenholzer for a supposed "lack of adjustments" is proof that someone does not understand the NBA game--and I agree with Van Gundy that it is--then the group of people who Van Gundy is talking about includes but is not limited to his ESPN/ABC colleagues Stephen A. Smith, Mike Wilbon, and Jay Williams. Unless I have missed something, Van Gundy rarely shares screen time with those three commentators; it would be fascinating to see a substantive basketball debate featuring those four, and moderated by a competent person who would keep the debate focused on substance, not bombast.

Possessions, games, and series are decided--barring injuries, suspensions, or other factors outside of the control of the coaches--by the exploitation of matchup advantages. The best coaches identify the favorable matchups for their teams, and then figure out how to maximize their advantageous matchups while minimizing the impact of the matchups that are not favorable. These matchups take place within the framework of the overall offensive and defensive game plans that the coaches installed during the preseason. Sure, there may be more than option to attack in a given offensive situation, or to react in a given defensive situation, but no coach is coming up with a brand new offense or defense between games or at halftime, much less during a timeout.

Labels: Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, Devin Booker, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, Milwaukee Bucks, Phoenix Suns

posted by David Friedman @ 3:06 AM

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Suns Overcome Antetokounmpo's 42 Points, Take 2-0 Lead

Giannis Antetokounmpo was brilliant, but the Phoenix Suns were balanced, and they were blazing hot from three point range as they defeated the Milwaukee Bucks 118-108 to take a 2-0 lead in the NBA Finals. Devin Booker led the Suns with 31 points on 12-25 field goal shooting, including 7-12 from three point range. He also had six assists and five rebounds. Mikal Bridges scored 27 points, while Chris Paul added 23 points plus eight assists and four rebounds as all five Suns starters scored in double figures. Deandre Ayton had a subpar offensive game (10 points on 4-10 field goal shooting) but he made his presence felt defensively and he grabbed a team-high 11 rebounds.

Antetokounmpo finished with 42 points on 15-22 field goal shooting, plus a game-high 12 rebounds, four assists, and three blocked shots in 40 minutes. Of the 10 Bucks who played, he was the only one with a positive plus/minus number (+3). The Bucks are better than the Suns when Antetokounmpo is in the game--this was also true during his 35 minutes of game one action--but the Bucks lose a lot of ground very quickly when he is not in the game. Unless he gets more help, it seems like he may have to play 45 minutes and score 50 points for the Bucks to win. Of course, that is an overreaction, because each game is an entity unto itself, and we know (or should know) that after the series shifts to Milwaukee many of the Bucks players will most likely perform better while at least some of the Suns players will most likely perform worse. 

Two players who have to step up for the Bucks to have a chance are Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday. They are playing hard and they are taking their shots, but--as Jeff Van Gundy often says--the Bucks need "makers," not "shooters." Middleton scored just 11 points on 5-16 field goal shooting, while Holiday finished with 17 points on 7-21 field goal shooting. Holiday missed several layups and point blank shots in the paint, and many of his misses were not close. He played excellent defense, and he notched seven assists with just one turnover in 39 minutes, but .333 field goal shooting is not going to cut it unless you are completely shutting down your counterpart, which is not the case in his matchup versus Paul.

The Bucks started the game with the right attitude and the right actions; they fought aggressively through screens, they attacked the paint, and they jumped out to a 21-12 lead. Antetokounmpo had six points during that opening blitz, and all three of his field goals were dunks. At that moment, it would have been difficult to believe that the Bucks would lose by double figures, but the Suns nailed eight three pointers during the first quarter to briefly take a 26-24 lead before the Bucks went back on top 29-26 by the end of the stanza. The Bucks outscored the Suns 20-0 in the paint during the first quarter. When the Bucks attack the paint on offense and do not overreact/overhelp in response to dribble penetration they are better than the Suns, but the key for Milwaukee is to do both of those things consistently for 48 minutes.

By halftime, the Suns led 56-45, and they did not trail in the second half. Their final points of the first half came on a three point play by Ayton that punctuated a beautiful possession during which the Suns crisply passed the ball all over the court until Ayton broke free under the hoop. Paul and Booker are the team's primary playmakers, but every Suns player is a willing and able passer. The Suns are masters at giving up good shots to get great shots. They are fun to watch, and it looks like it would be fun to play for this team as well. 

In the first half, Antetokounmpo had 12 points on 5-10 field goal shooting plus eight rebounds, but Middleton and Holiday combined to shoot just 5-24 from the field, which is obviously not nearly good enough. 

During the third quarter, Antetokounmpo--whose playing status was in doubt until just prior to game one of the NBA Finals in the wake of the knee injury that he suffered in game four of the Eastern Conference Finals--went on a scoring tear not seen in the NBA Finals since Michael Jordan had a 22 point quarter versus the Suns in the 1993 Finals. Antetokounmpo scored 13 straight Milwaukee points en route to pouring in 20 points during the quarter; since Jordan's outburst 28 years ago, Kobe Bryant and LeBron James each had one 19 point Finals quarter but no player had a 20 point quarter on the sport's biggest stage. The Finals record for points in a quarter is 25, set by Julius Erving during the 1976 ABA Finals and tied by Isiah Thomas during the 1988 NBA Finals.

Despite Antetokounmpo's heroics, the Suns led 88-78 heading into the fourth quarter. The Bucks never got closer than five points the rest of the way. The Bucks outscored the Suns 54-38 in the paint, but the Suns shot 20-40 from three point range while the Bucks shot just 9-31 from long distance. The three pointer is a high variance shot, but when one team gets hot the other team is in trouble, at least in that game.

Labels: Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, Devin Booker, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, Milwaukee Bucks

posted by David Friedman @ 2:44 AM

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Paul, Booker, and Ayton Shine as Suns Beat Bucks 118-105

Chris Paul (32 points, nine assists, four rebounds, 12-19 FG), Devin Booker (27 points, six assists, 10-10 FT), and Deandre Ayton (22 points, 19 rebounds, 8-10 FG) dominated as the Phoenix Suns led most of the way en route to a 118-105 win over the Milwaukee Bucks in game one of the NBA Finals. After not scoring during the first quarter, Paul picked apart Milwaukee's defense in the final three quarters, as the Suns ran screen/roll actions until they got the matchup they wanted, and then they attacked that matchup relentlessly. Booker did not shoot well from the field (8-21 FG) but he used his quickness and ballhandling to draw fouls, and he was perfect from the free throw line. Meanwhile, Ayton provided inside punch at both ends of the court, dominating the glass, providing timely paint points, and making all six of his free throws as the Suns shot 25-26 from the free throw line; only a late Jae Crowder miss stopped the Suns from setting the Finals single game record for most free throws made without a miss. 

As ABC's Jeff Van Gundy wryly noted, there is nothing that the Bucks can do about their "free throw defense." It is not likely that the Suns will shoot that kind of free throw percentage again during this series, and if the Suns had shot a "normal" free throw percentage then this game would have been much closer down the stretch. However, the Bucks have to be concerned about (1) how many fouls the Suns drew, and (2) how easily the Suns created and exploited the matchups that the Suns wanted. The Bucks must either fight over screens (as opposed to switching so often), or they must initiate hard traps to force Paul (or Booker when he is involved in the screen/roll action) to give up the ball. 

The biggest story at the start of the game was the return of two-time regular season MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo, who missed the last two games of the Eastern Conference Finals after suffering a knee injury in game four. The injury looked horrific, but imaging detected no structural damage, and it is remarkable--and wonderful--that Antetokounmpo returned to action. Antetokounmpo looked confident throughout the game, and physically he looked healthy as he scored 20 points on 6-11 field goal shooting while grabbing 17 rebounds, passing for four assists, and contributing a chase down blocked shot versus Mikal Bridges that removed any doubt about Antetokounmpo's post-injury speed, mobility, and agility. Antetokounmpo had a +1 plus/minus number, while the other four Bucks starters had plus/minus numbers ranging from -11 to -17. The Bucks had few problems during the 35 minutes that he played, but they had plenty of problems during the 13 minutes that he did not play. He has been out of action for a week, and he typically plays around 35 minutes because he plays so hard, but in this series the Bucks may need 40 productive minutes from Antetokounmpo so that they only have to figure out how to survive eight minutes per game without him.

Khris Middleton led the Bucks with 29 points on 12-26 field goal shooting, and Brook Lopez had a solid game (17 points, six rebounds). The Bucks need more from Jrue Holiday, who scored just 10 points on 4-14 field goal shooting. Holiday had nine assists and seven rebounds, but the Bucks need for him to score 18-20 points on efficient shooting while also being the primary defender on Paul; the Bucks cannot permit Paul to seek out the matchup that he wants.

The Bucks took an early three point lead, but trailed 30-26 by the end of the first quarter as Booker scored 12 points, including 6-6 free throw shooting. The Suns pushed that margin to 57-49 at halftime, and then they broke the game open as Paul scored 16 third quarter points on 6-7 field goal shooting. Paul was masterful as he authored one of the best Finals debuts ever, and one of the best Finals performances by a 36 year old.

The Suns outscored the Bucks 44-42 in the paint, 20-17 on the fast break, and 25-9 from the free throw line. The Bucks need to do a better job of exploiting their size advantage inside. One of the biggest mistakes that fans and even commentators make is assuming that whatever happened in one playoff game will carry over to the next game and the rest of the series. The Suns played about as well as they can play, but the Bucks are capable of making adjustments and playing better than they played. It would not at all be surprising if the Bucks play better defense, increase their paint scoring, and win game two.

The game one winner typically wins an NBA playoff series, but in the past couple years we have seen teams--including the Bucks--bounce back from a game one loss.

Labels: Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, Devin Booker, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, Milwaukee Bucks, Phoenix Suns

posted by David Friedman @ 12:50 AM

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Milwaukee Versus Phoenix Preview

NBA Finals

Milwaukee (46-26) vs. Phoenix (51-31) 

Season series: Phoenix, 2-0 

Phoenix can win if…the Suns continue to be the healthiest team left standing. Sadly--but perhaps inevitably, considering the compressed time frame from the end of the "bubble" to the beginning of the 2020-21 season--the 2021 NBA playoffs have been a war of attrition more than a battle of skill, and the losers have been the fans. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Anthony Davis, Joel Embiid, James Harden, Kyrie Irving, LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, Jamal Murray, and Trae Young are just a few of the stars who have been seriously affected by an injury during the 2021 playoffs. It is not a coincidence that the Suns defeated three teams (Lakers, Nuggets, Clippers) who each have at least one player on that list. 

There is no doubt that the Suns are a very good team--but if all teams had been at full strength during the regular season and the playoffs, it is very doubtful that the Suns would have outperformed the Lakers, the Clippers, the Nuggets, or the Jazz. Taking a broader, historical perspective, consider the teams that have reached the NBA Finals in the past 10-15 years: how many of those teams would it be reasonable to expect these Suns to beat if both teams were at full strength?

Objectively assessing the Suns takes nothing away from what they have accomplished: they eliminated the three teams they have faced thus far in the 2021 playoffs, and they earned the right to play in the NBA Finals. 

Offensively, the Suns' utilize the midrange game to good effect, Deandre Ayton is a high percentage scorer in the paint, and several Suns are excellent three point shooters. Defensively, the Suns use their speed, agility, and craftiness to good effect, though they can be overpowered in the paint by a team that has the necessary personnel and discipline to do so.

Milwaukee will win because…the Bucks' version of a Big Three--when healthy, and that is the major key, as noted in the above discussion about injuries--is better, bigger, and more versatile than the Suns' version of a Big Three. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo averaged 26.5 ppg, 10.0 rpg, and 5.5 apg while shooting .608 from the field in the first four games of the Eastern Conference Finals before spraining his knee during the fourth game. His overall 2021 playoff numbers are 28.2 ppg, 12.7 rpg, 5.2 apg, and .551 FG%. He missed the last two games of the Eastern Conference Finals, and the Bucks have not publicly released a timetable for his return. If Antetokounmpo returns to action and is reasonably healthy, the Suns have no answer for him; if Antetokounmpo does not return, or if he returns at less than 100%, the Bucks could still win the series but the path to victory would be much more difficult.

Khris Middleton averaged 23.7 ppg, 8.0 rpg, and 6.5 apg in the Eastern Conference Finals, and he is averaging 23.4 ppg, 8.0 rpg, and 5.1 apg overall in the 2021 playoffs. He is an All-NBA caliber performer who, for some inexplicable reason, is not given the respect that he deserves. Middleton does not have any skill set weaknesses; that is not to say that he is the best at any one particular skill set, but it means that it is difficult to exploit him in a matchup at either end of the court because of his size, mobility, shooting touch, rebounding, passing ability, and defensive prowess. He can explode for 15-20 points in a quarter or 35 points in a game at any time, and he can do that while also having a positive defensive impact.

Jrue Holiday contributed 22.0 ppg, 10.0 apg, and 5.0 rpg in the Eastern Conference Finals, and he is producing 17.6 ppg, 8.4 apg, and 5.6 rpg overall in the 2021 playoffs. He has struggled with his shooting efficiency at times, but he filled a big void at both ends of the court after Antetokounmpo got hurt.

In addition to the Big Three, the Bucks have a good supporting cast. Brook Lopez is a solid three point shooter who also can score inside, and he is a good rim protector (1.8 bpg in the 2021 playoffs). Bobby Portis provides rebounding, toughness, and timely scoring. P.J. Tucker is often assigned to harass the opposing team's best scorer. Pat Connaughton has filled in capably for the injured Donte DiVincenzo.

Sans Antetokounmpo, the Bucks pounded the Hawks into submission in the paint in game five of the Eastern Conference Finals, and then finished the series off with a strong inside/outside attack in game six. The Bucks' size, versatility, and defense will pose challenges that the Suns have not yet faced during the 2021 playoffs.

Other things to consider: This is Chris Paul's first NBA Finals appearance in 16 NBA seasons. In game six of the Western Conference Finals, Paul tied his playoff career high with 41 points as the Suns eliminated the L.A. Clippers, but throughout most of his career Paul has gotten injured and/or worn down as the playoffs progress; this year, he has been more durable than usual despite dealing with a shoulder injury suffered during the first round and despite having a brief stint in the league's COVID-19 protocols. Not only has Paul been more durable than usual, he has been more durable than most of the stars on the other top contenders--and the disparity between the Suns' health versus the health of the league's other top contenders is the biggest single factor explaining how the Suns advanced to the NBA Finals. 

Paul has received most of the headlines and accolades during both the regular season and the playoffs, but a strong case could be made that Devin Booker is the Suns' best and most valuable player. Booker led the team in scoring during the regular season (25.6 ppg), during the Western Conference Finals (25.5 ppg), and during the playoffs overall (27.0 ppg). When Paul missed the first game of the Western Conference Finals because of the NBA's COVID-19 protocols, Booker dominated the Clippers with 40 points, 13 rebounds, and 11 assists. The media narrative throughout Paul's career is that he "makes his teammates better"--a meaningless phrase--but the reality is that he is a great player who has been able to bring out the best from talented teammates. Booker clearly does not need Paul to "make him better"; Booker can control a game without Paul even being on the court.

Similarly, Deandre Ayton is a talented player who does not need Paul to "make him better." Ayton was the number one overall selection in a draft class that included both Luka Doncic and Trae Young, so it is silly to pretend that Paul is creating something out of nothing when he passes the ball to Ayton.

Holiday has the necessary physical and mental traits to match up well with Paul. Middleton versus Booker should be a draw, or perhaps a slight edge to Booker. Ayton is superior to Lopez, but the Bucks' "drop" coverage should prevent Ayton from matching the .706 FG% he has posted thus far in the 2021 playoffs. Antetokounmpo is obviously the key. The Suns cannot match up with him, while he can guard multiple positions. If Antetokounmpo is able to perform anywhere close to his normal capabilities, the Bucks are too big and too versatile for the Suns.

My expectation is that Antetokounmpo will lack some explosiveness and lateral mobility, but he will still be able to attack the hoop, rebound, make plays, and be an effective defensive presence.

Labels: Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, Devin Booker, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, Milwaukee Bucks, Phoenix Suns

posted by David Friedman @ 2:58 PM

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