Changing of the Guard--or Diminishing of the Guards?
Subjectively, it seems like there is a changing of the guard--literally and figuratively--in the NBA. Young players like Stephen Curry and Anthony Davis are moving to the forefront, while older players who have dominated the NBA for the past several years are declining and/or hampered by injuries. The shooting guard position is taking on a new look. Kobe Bryant, the best shooting guard--and often the best player overall--in the NBA for the better part of the past decade and a half, has just suffered another season-ending injury; surgery on his right rotator cuff is expected to keep him out of action for nine months. Dwayne Wade, probably the second best shooting guard in the NBA for most of the time frame that Bryant dominated, has been battling injuries and declining athleticism for several years.
In FanDuel leagues the best fantasy basketball player options at shooting guard are guys like James Harden and Klay Thompson. Harden and Thompson--who set the all-time NBA record by pouring in 37 points in a quarter en route to scoring 52 points during Golden State's 126-101 rout of Sacramento last Friday--are also the scoring leaders among shooting guards so far this season, at 27.6 ppg and 23.0 ppg respectively (Harden is the NBA's overall scoring leader as well). Surprisingly, Bryant (22.3 ppg) and Wade (21.4 ppg) are next in line, though of course Bryant will not play enough games this season to be a qualifier. Monta Ellis is fifth (20.3 ppg) and Jimmy Butler is the only other shooting guard averaging at least 20 ppg (20.1 ppg).
My initial assumption was that if I looked back five years the list would be much different but in 2009-10 the scoring leaders among shooting guards were Kobe Bryant (27.0 ppg), Dwyane Wade (26.6 ppg), Monta Ellis (25.5 ppg), Tyreke Evans (20.1 ppg) and Jamal Crawford (18.1 ppg). Evans is seventh this season (17.0 ppg) and Crawford is 11th (15.7 ppg).
However, 10 year ago the shooting guard landscape included greater quality and quantity. Allen Iverson led the scoring parade (30.7 ppg, capturing the last of his four scoring titles) but seven other shooting guards also averaged at least 20 ppg: Kobe Bryant (27.6 ppg), Tracy McGrady (25.7 ppg), Vince Carter (24.5 ppg), Dwyane Wade (24.1 ppg), Ray Allen (23.9 ppg), Michael Redd (23.0 ppg) and Jason Richardson (21.7 ppg). The first six players on that list are future Hall of Famers in their primes, while the 2005 versions of Redd and Richardson would almost certainly be All-Stars in 2015 (Redd made the All-Star team once in an injury-riddled career and Richardson never made the All-Star team).
Obviously, even though the position is called "shooting guard" a lot more goes into being a great shooting guard than just shooting/scoring. However, I doubt that many objective talent evaluators would take the top shooting guards of 2015--using any relevant statistic or standard--as a group over the top shooting guards of 2005. Maybe we are not seeing a changing of the guard as much as we are seeing some talent depletion at the shooting guard position. Such things are cyclical and it could be argued that the point guard position is now enjoying a renaissance but thinking about this does put All-NBA selections and All-Star selections in perspective; when considering such honors from a historical standpoint, it is important not to just look at how many times a player was tapped but also what kind of depth existed at his position during his prime.
Labels: Dwyane Wade, Jamal Crawford, James Harden, Klay Thompson, Kobe Bryant, Monta Ellis, Tyreke Evans
posted by David Friedman @ 10:51 PM
Lindy's Pro Basketball 2010-11 Includes Pau Gasol Feature Story, Kevin Durant Interview
Lindy's Pro Basketball 2010-11--available in stores now--includes a Pau Gasol feature story by editor/renowned Lakers authority Roland Lazenby and Jorge Ribeiro's interview with Kevin Durant. Lazenby asserts that Gasol's strong performances during the Lakers' back to back championship runs have done a lot to destroy the stereotype of European players as "soft." Durant discusses a wide range of issues, including his experiences playing for Team USA Coach Mike Krzyzewski.
I contributed five team previews this year: Charlotte Bobcats, Denver Nuggets, Oklahoma City Thunder, Sacramento Kings and Utah Jazz. As usual, each team preview is followed by a 300 word sidebar story. Here are the sidebar subjects that I examined:
Charlotte: Michael Jordan is the first NBA player to become the majority owner of an NBA franchise.
Denver: The importance of coaching in general and the specific impact that George Karl's absence had on the Nuggets last season.
Oklahoma City: Switching from shooting guard to small forward sparked Kevin Durant's emergence as an elite NBA player.
Sacramento: Tyreke Evans posted LeBron-like rookie numbers but to truly become an elite player he will have to make the same kind of second year jump that LeBron James did.
Utah: A good case can be made that Deron Williams has emerged as the NBA's best point guard.
Most of what I submitted was published exactly the way I wrote it, though the first sentence of my Nuggets' sidebar was deleted ("Statistics can be valuable when used properly but some people insist that anything that cannot be quantified on a spreadsheet is not important") and this sentence was tacked on to the end: "Karl's health appears to be on the mend--and the entire NBA wishes him well and has nothing but admiration for the Nugget's (sic) coach--but his comeback remains yet another unanswered question for this franchise." One of the core tenets asserted by "stat gurus" is that coaching ultimately does not make that much difference. I disagree with that sentiment, noting, "Unlike baseball, basketball is a dynamic game, so it is difficult to accurately quantify each player's impact on a given play, let alone decipher the overall effect that a coach has." Naturally, "stat gurus" realize that it is not in their self interest to acknowledge the importance of anything that they cannot quantify (or at least pretend to be able to quantify)--but it is not coincidental that five coaches (Phil Jackson, Red Auerbach, John Kundla, Pat Riley and Gregg Popovich) have won 34 of the NBA's 64 championships.
The Bobcats officially added Sherron Collins to their roster after the article submission deadline, so I did not write the brief comments about him. Also, I think that if Larry Hughes is healthy he could play his way into Charlotte's rotation but my analysis of Hughes was deleted. Here is what I originally said about Hughes:
"Larry Hughes was once a top notch defender; injuries have taken away a lot of his athletic ability and he is now a player who does several things adequately but nothing exceptionally well. Hughes has always been an erratic outside shooter. If he can stay healthy then he can be a solid backup for (Stephen) Jackson."
Writing the team previews is always fun; I hope that readers are informed and entertained by my contributions and by the magazine as a whole.
Labels: Charlotte Bobcats, Denver Nuggets, Deron Williams, George Karl, Kevin Durant, Lindy's Pro Basketball, Michael Jordan, Oklahoma City Thunder, Sacramento Kings, Tyreke Evans, Utah Jazz
posted by David Friedman @ 2:21 AM
Tyreke Evans Earns MVP Honors as Rookies End Sophomores' Seven Game Rookie Challenge Winning Streak
For many years the Rookie Challenge provided compelling evidence regarding the value of experience: the Sophomores beat the Rookies eight of the 10 times that the Challenge used the current format, including the last seven games in a row--but top notch performances by several first year guards plus a 20-20 effort by DeJuan Blair powered the Rookies to a 140-128 win on Friday night. Fans voted Tyreke Evans as the MVP; he certainly put up great numbers--a team-high 26 points on 11-15 field goal shooting, plus six rebounds and five assists--but he received a lot of support from backcourt mates Brandon Jennings (22 points, eight assists, six rebounds) and James Harden (22 points, five assists, four rebounds). Blair amassed 22 points, 23 rebounds and four assists, topping all other rebounders by at least 16 boards! All five rookie starters scored in double figures: Evans, Jennings, Blair, Stephen Curry (14 points) and Omri Casspi (13 points). Russell Westbrook made a strong MVP bid even though his team lost: 40 points on 18-29 field goal shooting plus five rebounds and four assists. Westbrook shot just 2-8 from three point range but he is at his best when he plays like a "power guard," bullying his way into the paint against defenders who cannot match his strength, reminiscent a bit of
James "Captain Late" Silas. Michael Beasley added 26 points and seven rebounds for the Sophomores.
Sophomore Coach Patrick Ewing was less than thrilled with his team's performance: "We got our butts kicked on every aspect of the game. They had 52 rebounds. They had 140 points. I know it's the All‑Star Game, but you know, we didn't play with enough pride in my eyes. They outplayed us. They outhustled us. They outscrapped us."
Except for a few spurts, defense was just a rumor throughout the evening, though fortunately matters did not reach the farcical level that they have in some of the previous years when the game degenerated into an informal slam dunk contest. In a sense, this kind of game gives a casual fan a glimpse into just how intense NBA defense usually is in the regular season (let alone the playoffs)--because when players with NBA talent get on the court and only defend sporadically you end up with a 140-128 score in a 40 minute game!
Instead of a conventional halftime show, the NBA staged its first ever "All-Star Dunk-In" as Demar DeRozan and Eric Gordon squared off for the right to be the fourth contestant in Saturday night's Slam Dunk Contest. Each player had two minutes to make two dunks, with misses not counting. Then fans determined the winner by either voting via text message or by logging on to NBA.com to make their selection. Gordon's made dunks were probably more impressive than DeRozan's but the problem is that Gordon prefaced those successful dunks with several misses that drained a lot of energy from his performance. In the end, DeRozan received 61% of the vote, a rout by Presidential election standards. DeRozan claimed that he held something back to use on Saturday, which suggests that he was very confident about his dunking skills vis a vis Gordon--or perhaps he is just trying to plant some doubts in the minds of Nate Robinson, Shannon Brown and Gerald Wallace; we'll find out in less than 24 hours.
Labels: Brandon Jennings, DeJuan Blair, DeMar DeRozan, James Harden, James Silas, Michael Beasley, Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry, Tyreke Evans
posted by David Friedman @ 3:37 AM
