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Sunday, April 20, 2025

Brief Thoughts About the First Quadrupleheader of the 2025 NBA Playoffs

The 2025 NBA playoffs opened with a Saturday quadrupleheader. Here are some brief thoughts about each game:

Game One: Indiana Pacers 117, Milwaukee Bucks 98

The Bucks led 6-3 before the Pacers went on a 12-2 run and never trailed again. The Pacers were up 67-43 at halftime and pushed that advantage to 77-49 early in the third quarter before settling for a 19 point win. Pascal Siakam (25 points on 10-15 field goal shooting) led six Pacers who scored in double figures, while Giannis Antetokounmpo could have sung Eric Carmen's classic song "All by Myself": he scored a game-high 36 points on 14-23 field goal shooting and had a game-high 12 rebounds, but no other Buck scored more than 15 points as his teammates combined for 62 points on 21-61 field goal shooting (.344). Damian Lillard did not play due to injury (blood clot in his right calf, and starters Ryan Rollins (five points), Kyle Kuzma (zero points), and Taurean Prince (zero points) combined to score five more points than a dead man.

Perhaps Lillard's anticipated healthy return for game two will help, but the Pacers played at a much faster speed and a much higher energy level than every Buck not named Antetokounmpo, and one undersized/injury-prone guard who is allergic to defense is unlikely to significantly change the Bucks' fortunes.

People who don't understand playoff basketball say things like "Game one is a feel out game" and "A playoff series does not begin until a road team wins a game." The reality is much different on both counts. Since the 1983-84 season, game one winners eventually win the series 77.1% of the time, including 79.0% of the time in the first round. Also, teams that win the first two games of a seven game series eventually win the series 92.0% of the time--which means that if the home team wins the first two games then the series is over much more often than not before the road team even plays a game at home. Game two is a must win for the Bucks, who are already in deep trouble as the shorthanded underdog.

Game Two: Denver Nuggets 112, L.A. Clippers 110 (OT)

Nikola Jokic had a slightly below average game by his lofty standards (29 points, game-high 12 assists, nine rebounds) and the Nuggets shot an uncharacteristically poor 41-94 (.436) from the field but they still beat a Clippers team that shot 43-86 (.500) from the field with James Harden scoring a game-high 32 points on 11-22 field goal shooting and dishing for a team-high 11 assists while committing just two turnovers. Aaron Gordon (25 points, eight rebounds) and Jamal Murray (21 points, nine rebounds, seven assists) were productive starters supporting Jokic's near triple double, and Russell Westbrook led the charge off of the bench with 15 points, eight rebounds, three assists, and just one turnover in 34 high energy minutes. Westbrook shot just 5-17 from the field but he had a +7 plus/minus number and after the game he dismissed the incessant focus on his shooting: "A lot of people put a lot of emphasis on missing so many shots. But in the playoffs, all you need to do is just win the game. I don't give a damn about how many shots you miss, make. Just make winning basketball plays defensively, offensively." Shot selection is important, and efficient shooting is important--but Westbrook is such a dynamic, high energy player that you can live with some of his shortcomings: I would rather have five Westbrooks playing hard and playing fearlessly than five "efficient" players who need to have their batteries jump-started and who demand rest days and "load management."

This game could have gone either way at several key junctures, but the Clippers have to be kicking themselves after squandering a 15 point lead and losing to a Denver team that had an off night. Regression to the mean indicates that the Nuggets are likely to shoot closer to their season average field goal percentage of .506 (first in the league) for the rest of this series, and Harden is likely to shoot closer to his playoff career field goal percentage of .425 for the rest of this series; in his last three playoff series, Harden had six games during which he shot at least .500 from the field and 10 games during which he shot worse than .430 from the field, including eight in which he shot worse than .320 from the field. Harden's playoff choking is not a slanted narrative or "hate": it is a statistical fact, and if he does not choke in this series then that will be a deviation from his career norm of playing poorly when the games matter the most. He played well in game one, but he is unlikely to sustain that, and the regression to the mean already began in the second half, when he managed just 10 points on 2-6 field goal shooting. Harden bounced back to score seven points on 3-3 field goal shooting in the overtime, but he was also involved in the turnover with 9.6 seconds remaining in overtime that essentially ended the game as Westbrook deflected a pass off of Harden's leg and out of bounds (interestingly, the scorekeeper assigned that turnover to Nicolas Batum for a "bad pass"). The "inefficient" Westbrook not only made the key defensive play on Harden, but he also hit a three pointer that put the Nuggets up 98-96 with 24.1 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter. Harden's runner sent the game to overtime, and the Nuggets did just enough in the extra session to prevail.

Kawhi Leonard scored 22 points on 9-15 field goal shooting for the Clippers but he also had a game-high seven turnovers. Ivica Zubac added 21 points and a game-high 13 rebounds; some media members are depicting Zubac as a Jokic-stopper but that is probably going to end as well for Zubac as the "Kobe-stopper" designation ended for Ruben Patterson (who brought that shame upon himself by giving himself that nickname, as opposed to being an innocent bystander to foolish media narratives).

Game Three: New York Knicks 123, Detroit Pistons 112

Detroit led 90-81 with 42 seconds remaining in the third quarter, after which the young Pistons had their "Welcome to the NBA playoffs!" moment as New York went on a 30-8 run to storm in front 111-98 with 4:49 left in the fourth quarter. Cade Cunningham's three pointer cut the margin to six (118-112) with 1:23 remaining, but the Pistons did not score the rest of the way.

Jalen Brunson scored a game-high 34 points for the Knicks on 12-27 field goal shooting, and he had a team-high eight assists. Brunson scored 12 fourth quarter points on 5-7 field goal shooting. Karl-Anthony Towns dominated inside with 23 points on 10-14 field goal shooting and a game-high 11 rebounds. OG Anunoby contributed 23 points and seven rebounds; he had 12 points in in the first quarter. Cameron Payne provided a major spark with 14 points in 15 minutes off of the bench, including 11 in the fourth quarter.

Tobias Harris led the Pistons with 25 points, while Cunningham had 21 points, a game-high 12 assists, six rebounds, and a game-high six turnovers in this first career playoff game.

Game Four: Minnesota Timberwolves 117, L.A. Lakers 95

Luka Doncic scored 16 first quarter points on 5-10 field goal shooting in his Lakers' playoff debut, and the Lakers led 28-21 at the end of the first stanza. The Timberwolves then shredded the Lakers with 38 points in the second quarter and 35 points in the third quarter, building an 85-58 lead midway through the third quarter to stun Lakers' fans who expected a coronation but attended a massacre. Minnesota shot 44-86 (.512) from the field, including 21-42 (.500) from three point range, and the Timberwolves outrebounded the Lakers 44-38 while outscoring the Lakers 44-32 in the paint. The Timberwolves beat the Lakers inside, outside, upside down, and sideways. The Lakers designated Jaden McDaniels as a "let him shoot" player, and he poured in a team-high 25 points on 11-13 field goal shooting. Naz Reid added 23 points on 8-12 field goal shooting off of the bench, and Anthony Edwards contributed 22 points, a game-high nine assists, and eight rebounds. Doncic finished with a game-high 37 points on 12-22 field goal shooting with eight rebounds but just one assist. LeBron James had a very quiet 19 points, five rebounds, and three assists, Austin Reaves scored 16 points on 5-13 field goal shooting, and no other Laker had more than nine points.

The Lakers looked forward to setting records with J.J. Redick as their new coach and Doncic as their new cornerstone player, but the milestones that they established in this game were not what they had in mind: the Lakers tied the franchise record for largest margin of defeat in a game one home loss, they had their lowest point total so far with Doncic and James playing together, and they suffered the worst first round game one loss of James' illustrious career.

When the Lakers win, there is plenty of credit to go around, but when the Lakers lose there is a competition to figure out who to blame. Two people who are sure that a loss is never their fault are LeBron James and J.J. Redick. James assured reporters that his teammates may have just needed a game to adjust to playoff basketball but they will be ready in game two; he did not mention that the Lakers may need more from him. In his in-game interview after the third quarter, Redick declared that the Timberwolves were not doing anything "schematically" that the Lakers did not expect; one thing that you can count on with Redick is that anything that goes wrong is never his fault: if the Lakers play poorly or lose, it is because the players did not execute his brilliant game plan. Redick rarely holds himself accountable. 

As noted above, winning game one is significant. That being said, if the team with homecourt advantage loses game one all hope is not extinguished, because a road team winning game one in a best of seven series has won the series 52% of the time since 2002-03, when the NBA expanded the first round from best of five to best of seven; however, the team with homecourt advantage in the first round wins the series 77.4% of the time overall, so by winning game one on the road the Timberwolves significantly increased the likelihood that they will win this series. 

I picked the Lakers to beat the Timberwolves because I thought that the Timberwolves would have a tough time matching up with the scoring/playmaking of Doncic, James, and Reaves, but if only Doncic shows up and the Lakers play no defense then the Lakers are in trouble. The Lakers may still win this series, but if that happens it will be because Doncic's individual brilliance supplemented by contributions from James and Reaves overcomes the Lakers' limitations in terms of lack of size and coaching.

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posted by David Friedman @ 10:37 AM

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Saturday, February 08, 2025

Warriors Hope to See "Playoff Jimmy" Instead of Disinterested Jimmy

Jimmy Butler won his power struggle with the Miami Heat, forcing his way out and receiving a two year, $112 million contract extension from the Golden State Warriors that more than covers the roughly $6 million of salary that he lost after being suspended three times this season by the Heat. The Heat sent Butler, two second round draft picks, and cash considerations to the Warriors in exchange for Kyle Anderson, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, and a first round draft pick. Several other teams participated in the deal as well.  The Toronto Raptors received P.J. Tucker from the Utah Jazz, plus a second round draft pick and cash considerations from the Heat. The Detroit Pistons received Dennis Schroder from the Jazz via the Warriors, and they also received Lindy Waters III and a 2031 second round pick via the Warriors. The Jazz received K.J. Martin from the Pistons via the Philadelphia 76ers, Josh Richardson via the Heat, two second round draft picks, and cash considerations from the Heat.

Most of these moves will be remembered as bookkeeping maneuvers facilitating Butler's departure from Miami in exchange for three players plus a first round draft pick. In my analysis of the shocking Luka Doncic-Anthony Davis trade, I wrote, "The tried and true template for evaluating an NBA trade is to look at which team received the best player, while understanding that size matters in the NBA and that age also matters." Butler has earned six All-Star selections, five All-NBA Team selections, and five All-Defensive Team selections while also winning the 2023 Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP; he has more accolades, accomplishments, and honors than all of the other players in this deal combined. Butler is 35 years old, but he has been reasonably productive this season (17.0 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 4.8 apg, a career-high .540 FG%). Wiggins, the only other player in the deal who made the All-Star team (2022), is almost 30 years old. He was a vital contributor to Golden State's 2022 championship team, but he has been inconsistent (and often unavailable) since 2022. 

The Warriors are the clear winners of this trade based on the best player criterion. Size is not a factor in this trade, as none of the players are taller than 6-9 or power players in the paint, but age is a factor worth considering. Butler is five years older than Wiggins, and four years older than Anderson, Schroder and Richardson. Other than the 39 year old Tucker, there is a good chance that every rotation player included in this trade has more years left in the league than Butler does. Age matters little to the win-or-bust Warriors, but the Heat did the best that they could to obtain players who can be in their rotation for the next several years (or who are viable enough to be packaged for other rotation players or draft picks)--and they did well to obtain anything of value for an aging, disgruntled player who wears out his welcome everywhere he goes.

After the trade, Butler delivered a brief video message to Warriors' fans, concluding with these bold words: "Championship coming soon." Talk is cheap, but  $112 million is not cheap for a 35 year old who has never been durable, has never made the All-NBA First Team, and has never finished higher than 10th in regular season MVP voting.

The "Playoff Jimmy" nickname is primarily based on three extended Miami playoff runs (2020 NBA Finals, 2022 Eastern Conference Finals, 2023 Eastern Conference Finals), but Butler averaged just 14.5 ppg on .297 field goal shooting when the Bucks swept the Heat in the first round in 2021, and he shot .451 from the field or worse in his six playoff appearances with Chicago, Minnesota, and Philadelphia. Butler missed the 2024 playoffs due to injury, and his comment after the playoffs that the Heat would have beaten Boston if he had played earned a stern rebuke from Heat President Pat Riley, who bluntly stated that players who don't participate should not talk. That may not have been the end of Butler's positive relationship with the Heat, but it seems like it was the beginning of the end, because Riley's public censure of Butler reflected Riley's position that Butler is not available enough to be worth a max contract extension.

It is possible that Butler will play with renewed energy and vigor for the Warriors after receiving the contract extension that the Heat refused to give him, but it is also possible that now that he got paid he will be satisfied and unmotivated. He built a mythology about himself that he is all about the team and about winning, but the way that he forced Miami to trade him demonstrated that he is all about flexing his power for personal gain. Butler has not played in more than 65 games in a season since 2016-17, when he was 27; it is unlikely that he will suddenly become more durable or more reliable, so the Warriors should expect to get--at best--130 regular season games or less from Butler out of a possible 164 in the next two seasons. 

Published reports indicate that the Warriors preferred to bring back Kevin Durant for a second tour of duty instead of acquiring Butler, but Durant balked. It is no secret that Durant left the Warriors to get away from the volatile Draymond Green, and it is reasonable to assume that his refusal to return to the Bay Area is primarily--if not exclusively--based on his disinclination to team up again with Mr. "Triple Single." The Athletic recently ranked Green as the 100th greatest NBA player of all-time, which is high--and undeserved--praise for a player sporting career averages of 8.7 ppg, 6.9 rpg, and 5.6 apg with shooting splits of .450/.322/.707 (The Athletic ranked Butler 99th all-time, which seems a bit too high, though I agree with ranking Butler ahead of Green). There is no doubt that Green contributed playmaking and defense to the Warriors' four most recent championship teams, but he was fortunate to play alongside three legitimate Hall of Famers: Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, and Klay Thompson. When Green took the court for the 2019-20 Warriors without those three great players, the whole world saw what Green is all about as he averaged 8.0 ppg on .389 field goal shooting along with 6.2 rpg and 6.2 apg for a 15-50 team. Green is a high level role player, not an all-time great player; separate him from great players, and he has little impact on winning (which does not change the fact that he has some impact on winning when he is surrounded by great players).

When people talk about Green's role on championship teams they should also talk about his role on costing the Warriors opportunities to win other championships as a result of his out of control behavior leading to suspensions and leading to Durant's departure/refusal to return. It will be interesting to see how history judges the Warriors' decision to hold onto Green while losing Durant, Thompson, and other players. Perhaps there is no market for Green's services outside of Golden State, but if there is any market then the Warriors should have gotten rid of Green and kept (or at least brought back) Durant.

Prior to Butler's arrival, the Warriors were fighting to stay above .500 and earn a spot in the Play-In Tournament. If all goes well, Butler could help the Warriors sneak into the playoffs, but it is difficult to picture this team winning a playoff series against any of the Western Conference's top four teams. It will be interesting to observe the Butler-Green chemistry, particularly if the Warriors continue to hover around .500. Neither player is shy about expressing his opinions.

Butler seemed poised to win the unofficial prize for self-centered inflation of his importance/worth after quitting on his team and pouting about losing his "joy" because of merely being paid close to $50 million per year to dribble a basketball, but then Schroder opened his mouth and claimed the prize all for himself. Schroder, a minor figure in the multi-team deal, will make $13 million this season. He is scoring 14.4 ppg on .418 field goal shooting this season, numbers that are in line with his career averages, and he is very dissatisfied with his lot in life, whining that the way that NBA teams trade players is equivalent to "modern slavery."  Declaring that NBA players are slaves is so wildly delusional that it almost defies description. There are millions of people in the world who are struggling to obtain enough food to eat and who are deprived of basic human rights; those people are suffering modern slavery, and they would gladly trade places with Schroder. What Schroder fails to acknowledge is that--unlike a slave--he has the freedom to choose a different job, to choose where he lives, and even to make idiotic public statements without fear of repercussions from the government or his employer.

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posted by David Friedman @ 10:05 AM

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Monday, February 05, 2024

Remembering Earl "The Twirl" Cureton

Earl "The Twirl" Cureton passed away unexpectedly yesterday at the age of 66. The Detroit native had just substituted for Rick Mahorn on the Detroit Pistons radio network on Friday night, and Cureton was scheduled to call Sunday's game versus Orlando as well. 

Cureton enjoyed a 12 season NBA career. Like many NBA role players, he was a star in college, averaging 16.2 ppg and 9.5 rpg in 81 games for Robert Morris and Detroit Mercy. Cureton scored 16 points and grabbed 11 rebounds in Detroit's 95-87 loss to Lamar in the 1979 NCAA Tournament. Cureton began his NBA career with the Philadelphia 76ers in 1980 and he played three seasons with the 76ers. Cureton was a teammate of Julius Erving's on Philadelphia's 1983 NBA championship team before playing for his hometown Detroit Pistons from 1983-1986. Cureton was Michael Jordan's teammate with the Chicago Bulls in 1986-87, and he also played for the L.A. Clippers, Charlotte Hornets, Houston Rockets, and Toronto Raptors in addition to playing pro ball in Italy, France, Venezuela, Mexico, and Argentina. Cureton only played in two regular season games for the 1994 Houston Rockets, but he served as an effective rotation player in 10 playoff games as they won the NBA title.

Most recently, Cureton worked as the Community Ambassador of the Detroit Pistons. His Pistons teammate Isiah Thomas issued this statement: "All of us are hurting. He was a tremendous teammate, tough competitor, a champion and a great human being. Earl always held the Detroit community close to his heart and worked tirelessly to make a difference for the city he loved. He will be greatly missed."

You can get a sense of Cureton's upbeat demeanor in this video during which he reminisces about his NBA career:

Cureton recalled that when he was growing up he had Julius Erving's posters on his wall, never dreaming that one day he would be Dr. J's teammate and play on a championship team with him. Cureton called Erving the "ambassador for the NBA. I think he was that player who set the standard for the league. A class act. He had a certain air about him. When he walked into a room, you knew Doc was in that room...Always gave 110% out there on the basketball court. You can't have a better role model than that..I think that he was the best at going to the basket. No other player that played in the league went to the basket like that."

The 1983 76ers--featuring Hall of Famers Julius Erving, Moses Malone, Maurice Cheeks, and Bobby Jones plus Hall of Fame caliber guard Andrew Toney--will always be my favorite team of all-time. They set the all-time record (since broken in the expanded playoff format) by going 12-1 in the playoffs, culminating in a 4-0 sweep of the defending champion L.A. Lakers. If you loved the 1983 76ers, you remember Cureton hitting a skyhook over Kareem Abdul-Jabbar after Malone got in foul trouble in game two of the 1983 NBA Finals. In the commemorative championship video, Erving good-naturedly joked to the post-game media scrum that Cureton will now become so famous that he won't be able to walk the streets of Detroit without being recognized, while Cheeks said Cureton had seen Abdul-Jabbar shoot the skyhook against him so many times that he probably figured he might as well do it once. The 76ers had fun along the way, but they never lost sight of their mission to get Erving his first NBA championship ring to go alongside his two ABA championship rings. Bruce Newman covered the series for Sports Illustrated during a golden era for the league (and the magazine).

Cureton is the third member of that squad to pass away. Mark McNamara passed away on April 27, 2020, and Moses Malone passed away on September 13, 2015. The 1983 76ers brought a lot of joy not just to Philadelphia but to the basketball world with their teamwork, their unselfishness, and their determined focus to complete their journey; in the three seasons prior to acquiring Malone, the 76ers lost to the L.A. Lakers in the NBA Finals in 1980 and 1982, and they lost in the 1981 Eastern Conference Finals after building a 3-1 lead versus the Boston Celtics. 

The passage of time and the passages of life are sobering reminders of how important it is to cherish every moment of the journey.

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posted by David Friedman @ 4:32 PM

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Wednesday, May 11, 2022

Bob Lanier, Hall of Famer and NBA Ambassador, Passed Away at Age 73

Bob Lanier, one of the NBA's best centers in the 1970s during an era when the league had several Hall of Fame centers, has passed away after a brief illness. The 73 year old Lanier was just as renowned for being a great person as he was for being a great player. He won the 1978 J. Walter Kennedy Citizenship award in recognition of his contributions to the world away from the basketball court. 

NBA Commissioner Adam Silver issued the following statement shortly after Lanier's death was confirmed:

Bob Lanier was a Hall of Fame player and among the most talented centers in the history of the NBA, but his impact on the league went far beyond what he accomplished on the court. For more than 30 years, Bob served as our global ambassador and as a special assistant to David Stern and then me, traveling the world to teach the game’s values and make a positive impact on young people everywhere. It was a labor of love for Bob, who was one of the kindest and most genuine people I have ever been around. His enormous influence on the NBA was also seen during his time as President of the National Basketball Players Association, where he played a key role in the negotiation of a game-changing collective bargaining agreement.

I learned so much from Bob by simply watching how he connected with people. He was a close friend who I will miss dearly, as will so many of his colleagues across the NBA who were inspired by his generosity. We send our deepest condolences to Bob’s family and friends.

Early in his career, Lanier faced off against older legends who started their careers in the 1960s, including Wilt Chamberlain and Willis Reed. Lanier also battled against great contemporaries, including Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Dave Cowens, Bob McAdoo, Moses Malone, Wes Unseld, and Bill Walton. Lanier twice finished in the top five in regular season MVP voting (third in 1974, fourth in 1977). He won the 1972 ABA-NBA All-Star Game MVP, and he won the 1974 NBA All-Star Game MVP. Lanier ranked in the top 10 in scoring six times, and he finished in the top 10 in rebounding four times. He finished his career as a member of the elite 20-10 club (20.1 ppg, 10.1 rpg).

In 1972, Lanier was crowned as the NBA's one-on-one champion, defeating Jo Jo White in the finals and winning $15,000 plus a fancy trophy:


The NBA on TNT crew just did a nice tribute segment about Lanier, and what Charles Barkley said during that segment echoed what he told me when I interviewed Barkley during the 2006 NBA All-Star Weekend: "I know Bob personally. He lives in Arizona. Obviously, he was a great, great, great player, but the one thing that I'll say about Bob is that Bob is one of the nicest men I've met in my life, period. He's a wonderful person. You can look at his stats and the fact that he's in the Hall of Fame and see that he was a great player. Living in Phoenix, I've gotten to know him really well and he's just a wonderful person."

I interviewed Lanier in person during the 2005 NBA All-Star Weekend, and then in August 2005 I did a more extensive phone interview with him. That second interview provided a lot of the background material for a profile that I wrote about Lanier in 2006.

It was an honor and a treat to interview Lanier, because he was one of the NBA's best players when I first fell in love with the sport, and he was one of the players profiled in one of the first basketball books that I read as a child, Basketball's Biggest Stars by Angelo Resciniti.

The Lanier quote that always resonated the most with me is what he told me during our first interview after I asked him to describe the greatest moment of his NBA career. Lanier replied, "Greatest moment? To me--and I know that this might sound a little trite--the greatest moment is that basketball has enabled me to touch other people's lives. I've always been able to do that. Since day one, being an NBA player and visiting a hospital or going to a senior citizens' home and listening to an elderly person who has much more wisdom than I'll ever have and brightening their day and giving my energy. It's something that is very, very special that the NBA has been able to do. It's terrific for me. (NBA Senior Vice President) Kathy (Behrens) talked about seeing our players making words come to life. That is very special because I see them in gyms and community centers with these kids, bright eyed kids draped all around them. They've got their hands on these books that they almost cover up because their hands are so big. Then, the energy that they have by making the words come to life and then going over to a tech center where they get on these computers. It's funny sometimes, because really the kids know more about how to do online stuff than our players, so they end up teaching our players. It's really, really nice."

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posted by David Friedman @ 2:33 AM

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Tuesday, April 05, 2022

Gene Shue's Remarkable NBA Career Should Never be Forgotten

Gene Shue, the only person to make five NBA All-Star teams and win two NBA Coach of the Year awards, passed away on April 3 at the age of 90. Shue's multifaceted NBA career began in 1954 when the Philadelphia Warriors made him the third overall selection in the draft, and continued into the early 1990s when he served as the Philadelphia 76ers' General Manager. 

Shue did not immediately become a star NBA player, and he did not even average at least 10 ppg until his third season--but he emerged as a All-Star in his fourth campaign, and then he made the All-Star team five years in a row. In 1960, Shue made the All-NBA First Team alongside Hall of Famers Bob Cousy, Wilt Chamberlain, Elgin Baylor, and Bob Pettit. Shue ranked sixth in the league in scoring (1712 points, 22.8 ppg) and 11th in assists (295, 5.5 apg) that season. He made the All-NBA Second Team in 1961 behind Cousy and Oscar Robertson but ahead of rookie Jerry West, among others.

Shue scored 10,068 points in his 10 season NBA career at a time when the 10,000 point club was considered a "select circle" of great players listed in the annual official NBA Guide. Shue's playing career ended in 1964, and just two years later his coaching career began as he took the reins for the 4-21 Baltimore Bullets. The Bullets, founded in 1961 as the Chicago Packers, had yet to post a single winning season, but in Shue's second full season the team posted the best record in the league, 57-25. That quick turnaround earned Shue the first of his Coach of the Year awards. The Bullets were swept by the rising New York Knicks--who won two of the next four NBA titles--but in 1971 Shue guided the Bullets to the NBA Finals, where they were swept by the Milwaukee Bucks. Hall of Famers Wes Unseld and Earl Monroe had their most productive individual seasons during Shue's run in Baltimore. The team moved to Washington, D.C. in 1973, but Shue resigned because he did not want to move to Washington, D.C. Instead, Shue became the coach of the Philadelphia 76ers, who had just finished the worst season in NBA history up to that time (9-73). In the next four seasons, Philadelphia's win total increased to 25, 34, 46, and 50. The 76ers added a lot of talented players during that time--including Doug Collins, George McGinnis, and Julius Erving. Shue guided that trio to the 1977 NBA Finals, where the 76ers took a 2-0 lead over the Portland Trail Blazers before losing four straight games to Bill Walton and crew. The 76ers fired Shue after the team started 2-4 during the next season.

Shue then took over his third reclamation project, becoming the coach of the San Diego Clippers in 1978; in the previous two seasons, the Clippers--then known as the Buffalo Braves--won 30 games and then won 27 games. The Clippers won 43 and 35 games during Shue's two years with the team, but did not qualify for the playoffs in either season. Shue then returned to the Bullets franchise, now known as the Washington Bullets. He led the team to the playoffs three times in five full seasons, winning his second Coach of the Year award in 1981. The Bullets fired Shue with 13 games remaining in the 1986 season, and he finished his coaching career with a brief, unsuccessful return to the hapless Clippers, who had relocated to L.A.

Shue's .477 career regular season winning percentage (784-861) is not a fair representation of his coaching skills, because he repeatedly took over bad teams, and he generally made those teams better. He was renowned for his ability to connect with players who had been cast off by other teams, and for his innovative coaching strategies; for example, to alleviate pressure against his guards when he coached Philadelphia he sometimes had his centers bring the ball up the court. Also, he was an early adopter of the three point shot: Shue coached the Clippers during the first season that the NBA used the three point shot (1979-80), and his team led the league in three pointers made (177) and three pointers attempted (543) while ranking second in three point field goal percentage (.326). During the 1979-80 season, the Clippers' Brian Taylor ranked first in three pointers made (90--more than all but three teams that season!), first in three pointers attempted (239), and fifth in three point field goal percentage (.377). Those numbers may seem small in light of the NBA's three point revolution during the past few years, but at that time Shue's Clippers were one of the few NBA teams that attempted three pointers in any situation other than as a desperation heave with the shot clock/game clock expiring or down by three points with time running out. 

I am not sure how many people participated in the NBA as a player, coach, or executive in five different decades, but that list must not be very long, and Shue's name is on it.

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posted by David Friedman @ 11:40 PM

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Wednesday, August 25, 2021

"Untold: Malice at the Palace" Does Not Tell the Whole Story

The Netflix documentary "Untold: Malice at the Palace" purports to tell the "untold" story of perhaps one of the most "re-told" basketball events of the past two decades: the melee that took place on November 19, 2004 in the Palace of Auburn Hills after a "fan" named John Green threw a cup that hit Indiana Pacers forward Ron Artest, who jumped up from his reclining position on the scorer's table and bolted into the stands to confront the person who he thought had assaulted him (Artest's initial target was, in fact, not the person who had thrown the cup). Artest's teammate Stephen Jackson followed him into the stands, "fans" threw objects at players, players hit fans, and the NBA took a figurative black eye as players and fans attempted to inflict literal black eyes (and worse) against each other in a nationally televised game that featured a rematch of the 2004 Eastern Conference Finals.

NBA Commissioner David Stern swiftly suspended Artest for the remainder of the season plus the playoffs. Stern also suspended nine other players, most notably Pacers Jackson (30 games), Jermaine O'Neal (25 games, later reduced to 15), and Anthony Johnson (five games), plus Piston Ben Wallace (six games). Four other players were each suspended for one game. It has become popular in some quarters to say that Stern overreacted and issued punishments that were too harsh--the documentary takes that stance--while not addressing the bad behavior by Green that started the melee, as well as the bad behavior by other fans during the fracas. The only power that the NBA Commissioner has over fans is to have them thrown out and/or banned from arenas; it is up to the criminal justice system to impose penalties on fans for criminal conduct. Stern understood that--no matter how badly fans behave--if players go into the stands and get into altercations with fans this is very bad for the league for a whole host of reasons that any intelligent person should be able to comprehend without too much explanation. The NBA can and should do everything possible to protect players, but players are in no way deputized to enforce laws, nor do they have the right to impose vigilante justice. 

John Green was eventually arrested, convicted of misdemeanor assault and battery and sentenced to 30 days in jail plus two years' probation. A "fan" named Bryant Jackson who threw a chair pleaded no contest to felony assault plus misdemeanor assault and battery, receiving a sentence of two years' probation plus being ordered to pay $6000 in restitution. Charlie Haddad, a "fan" who wandered onto the court seeking a confrontation with players--and who had a history of seeking such confrontations--received two years' probation, 100 hours of community service, and 10 straight weekends in a county work program. 

The documentary glosses over this part, but Artest, Jackson, O'Neal, Johnson, and their teammate David Harrison each pleaded no contest to charges of misdemeanor assault and battery, and each received sentences of one year of probation and 60 hours of community service plus a $250 fine. The documentary portrays the players as a band of brothers engaging in self-defense against a horde of thousands of crazed fans, but self-defense is defined clearly under the law, and the actions of several of the players went far beyond that legal definition. Artest did not have to go barreling into the stands to "defend" himself. He was without question the victim of assault, but he was not being assaulted when he ran into the stands. He could have saved himself several million dollars in lost salary and endorsements had he stayed on the court. 

O'Neal often says in reference to the Malice in the Palace, "What would you have done?" He is right that unless you are placed under the duress of those circumstances you do not know for sure how you would react--but the point that he misses is that, even if many other people might have reacted the same way that does not change the reality that there is a right/legal way to react and a wrong/illegal way to react. 

Considering that O'Neal is one of the documentary's executive producers, it is perhaps not surprising that the documentary largely frames the incident and the aftermath in terms of how it affected his life. A significant portion of the documentary is devoted to telling the story of O'Neal's rise from poverty in South Carolina to generational wealth as an NBA player. O'Neal's story is inspiring--and a reminder of the kind of upward mobility available in the United States that exists in few other places around the world--but you don't need that much background material about O'Neal to understand the Malice in the Palace. Perhaps if this documentary had lasted 10 hours then it would make sense to provide deep background on all of the principal participants, but devoting so much time to O'Neal's life story did not leave nearly enough time to shed much new light on the Malice at the Palace. 

Much interesting material was left on the cutting room floor, or never even sought in the first place. For example, Indiana Pacers' play by play announcer Mark Boyle had a front row seat for the drama. After the infamous cup infamously hit Artest in the chest, Boyle can be seen engaging in a futile effort to prevent Artest from going into the stands. Boyle suffered five broken vertebrae in his back. As Boyle wrote on Twitter regarding the documentary, "I was [as] involved in this as anyone, assuming you would consider five fractured vertebrae being involved, yet nobody producing this documentary reached out to me."

The documentary has no interview footage of then-Indiana Coach Rick Carlisle--who later led the Dallas Mavericks to the 2011 NBA title--and there is no footage featuring then-Detroit Coach Larry Brown, a Hall of Famer who is the only coach to win an NCAA Division I title (Kansas 1988) and an NBA title (Detroit 2004). It would have been interesting to hear their perspective. Even if you say that the documentary is meant to show the players' perspective, keep in mind that Carlisle is a former NBA player and Brown is a former ABA All-Star. 

We do hear a lot from Artest, whose honesty and self-awareness are refreshing. He describes how at that stage of his life he was battling both anxiety and depression. As Artest put it, he was worried about the future, and upset about the present. He knew even at that time that he needed help, and he was under the care of mental health professionals who were trying to guide him toward ways to manage his mental illness and control his anger. The reason that Artest was lying on the scorer's table is that he had been counseled to withdraw physically and count to five whenever he felt like he was about to lash out; in the prior moments, he had committed a hard (and unnecessary) foul against Ben Wallace with the Pacers up 97-82 and less than a minute remaining in the fourth quarter. Wallace responded with a two-hand push to Artest, players from both teams squared off in classic "hold me back" stances, and the referees were sorting out how to proceed. Artest may have been well-intentioned when he lay down on the scorer's table, but doing so in an opposing arena was not a great idea, and it placed him in a much more exposed position than he would have been in if he had just sat on his team's bench. The referees and his teammates both failed to the extent that they did not remove him from his "resting spot" before trouble happened. This is in no way meant to exonerate Green, who is an idiot and a criminal, but deescalation should have been the order of the day. The referees should have promptly ejected Artest and Wallace, which would have not only been appropriate based on their actions but would have also enabled the teams to likely finish the game without further incidents.

Did you know or remember that Tim Donaghy, who soon became infamous for other reasons, was one of the three referees that night? Donaghy appears on camera in the documentary.

Stephen Jackson gets a lot of air time in the documentary, and almost every time he opens his mouth he reminds you that logical, analytical thinking is not his strong suit. Jackson is an antisemite and he seems to be confused about what he wants to be when (if?) he grows up: as Kwame Brown memorably put it, Jackson cannot decide if he is a gangster or a Black Lives Matter activist. O'Neal is the only player whose initial suspension was reduced on appeal, but Jackson defiantly states that he refused to show any remorse or say anything in his own defense. I don't know if Jackson's suspension would or should have been reduced, but that kind of shortsighted thinking is what led him into the stands (and a host of other negative situations throughout his life and career), costing him millions of dollars.

The documentary tantalizes the viewer with a promise that after you see "previously unseen" footage frame by frame your perspective on the night's events might change. The documentary does not deliver on that promise.

Here is what I saw and knew that night that I also saw during the documentary and still know today:

1) Nobody on the Pacers wanted any part of physically confronting Ben Wallace. If "Hold me back" were a person, his name would be Stephen Jackson. That, in turn, strongly suggests that Artest, Jackson and the others had the ability to hold themselves back--or be held back--from going into the stands, which changed the dynamic from one idiot criminal throwing a cup to a whole bunch of people reacting to the sight of large NBA players hitting normal-sized civilians.

2) Many of the Detroit fans behaved in a criminal and horrific manner. Every one of the people who threw things at the Pacers should have been banned for life from going to an NBA game.

3) I understand why O'Neal felt threatened in the midst of an out of control situation during which fans were on the court and also throwing things at players, but his description of his infamous sliding punch seems more than a little self-serving. After Haddad confronted Artest on the court, Anthony Johnson hit Haddad and then jumped on Haddad while Haddad was on the ground (that is why Johnson was not only suspended multiple games but also successfully prosecuted). O'Neal's version is that he saw Haddad hitting Johnson and thus he came running/sliding to Johnson's defense, but the footage clearly shows that Johnson went to the ground to hit an already fallen Haddad and not the other way around. Haddad did not belong on the court but it was not Johnson's job to subdue Haddad, who was in any case pretty well subdued by that point. If O'Neal had not slipped, the blow that he attempted to deliver would likely have caused serious if not fatal injuries to Haddad. O'Neal should have been gathering Johnson and the rest of his teammates together to head to the locker room. It is important to remember that not every fan acted like a raving lunatic, and not every Pacer decided to just randomly start punching people. Even in the midst of chaos, it is possible to at least attempt to utilize sound judgment.

4) Reggie Miller is perhaps the most sympathetic figure, at least among the players. The 2004-05 season was his last, best chance to win the NBA title, and that chance disappeared in a flurry of foolishness and criminality. I am not as convinced as some people are that the Pacers would have beaten the Pistons in a playoff series had the Malice at the Palace not happened--I think that the Pacers lacked focus and mental toughness, two shortcomings that were on display not only during the Malice at the Palace but also both before and after that seminal event--but it is clear that at full strength the Pacers posed a viable threat to the Pistons. Miller was no longer at the peak of his powers as a player, and he needed O'Neal, Artest, and Jackson to be the leaders/standard bearers, but those guys failed him (and themselves) colossally.

In short, the documentary did not show footage that I had not seen, nor did it change my overall impression of what happened.

By the end of the documentary, I had mixed feelings about O'Neal. The arc of the documentary is meant to portray O'Neal in heroic fashion. He has admirable qualities, and I respect the way that he rose out of adverse circumstances to be successful. He has expressed remorse for his actions, and he has said that he deserved to be punished. O'Neal admits that he failed as a leader to keep the team together and try to win a title for Miller. 

However and as noted above, the documentary inaccurately portrays O'Neal's sliding punch, which was not a noble act of defending his teammate but rather an act of aggression against a fan who was on the ground and being hit by Johnson. Also, O'Neal states that the court system vindicated him at every turn after Stern issued the 25 game suspension, a claim that does not withstand careful scrutiny. 

First, O'Neal pleaded no contest to two criminal charges. Vindication is acquittal, not a no contest plea. 

Second, O'Neal was ordered to pay $1686.50 in restitution to Haddad. I have little sympathy for Haddad, but from a legal standpoint he was a victim of assault by both Johnson and O'Neal (Artest just shoved Haddad away but did not hit him; Artest got in trouble because of what he did when he went into the stands, not for his reaction to Haddad approaching him on the court). 

Third, O'Neal's assertion that he won in federal district court misrepresents what happened. The judge most assuredly did not say that O'Neal's actions were justified; that was not, in fact, what the federal case was even about. After Stern suspended the players, the Players Association requested that an arbitrator independently review the penalties. The arbitrator determined that O'Neal's suspension should be reduced to 15 games--again, not a "vindication" of O'Neal, but just an assessment that the punishment should have been less severe. The NBA contended that this was an "on court" incident over which the NBA Commissioner has total authority that cannot be diminished by an arbitrator, while the Players Association argued that this was not an "on court" incident. Without getting into all of the labor law and arbitration law semantics, in layman's terms the federal district court judge agreed with the Players Association and thus held that the arbitrator could reduce O'Neal's suspension to 15 games. 

So, in sum, while O'Neal spends the documentary claiming that the legal system vindicated and exonerated him, the reality is the opposite: he suffered a criminal penalty for his conduct, he paid a civil damage award, and an independent arbitrator determined that he deserved a 15 game suspension. 

I am not saying that O'Neal is a bad guy. He comes across as infinitely more intelligent than Jackson (admittedly, that is a low bar to clear), and I believe that O'Neal is genuinely remorseful about the impact that his actions had on his team and his teammates in spite of his apparent denial of the extent to which he was in the wrong. 

The point is that his telling of the "untold" story distorts the factual record, which is available for anyone to independently examine: watch the footage yourself and, if you are so inclined, look up the judicial proceedings and read them as well. 

A final note concerns the use of the word "thug." The etymology of the word traces back to a group of robbers and assassins in India in the 1800s who strangled their victims before stealing their property. Journalists and commentators throw the word around a lot, often in reference to young Black people. I first realized how the word "thug" is received and understood in the Black community after I interviewed Warren Jabali, who deeply resented being called a "thug" in Terry Pluto's ABA oral history Loose Balls. Jabali readily admitted to me that he was wrong "and had no defense" for hitting and then stomping opposing player Jim Jarvis during an ABA game, but Jabali passionately insisted that he was not a thug but rather someone who resented things that had transpired and chose the wrong way to demonstrate that resentment. Talking to Jabali and learning his perspective helped me to understand that the word "thug" has a specific and deeply felt negative connotation in the Black community. The linguist John McWhorter has explained that "thug" has become a code word for the "N-word" but that many people do not realize this because they resist accepting that the meaning of a word is not fixed forever but rather evolves. What "thug" meant in India in 1830 (or even in this country 100 years later) is not what the word means or connotes now. The Pacer players were not/are not "thugs." It is not helpful or productive to categorize a whole group of people as "thugs." That being said, it is also not helpful when entertainers and celebrities promote any form of "thug culture" or "thug life," either.

What happened during The Malice at the Palace was not about "thuggish" players or a "thug" mentality in the NBA; it was a perfect storm of referees not deescalating a situation after a hard foul, fans engaging in criminal behavior, and several players overreacting under adverse conditions.

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posted by David Friedman @ 12:46 AM

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Thursday, October 03, 2019

2019-20 Eastern Conference Preview

The Eastern Conference has been depleted of star power in recent years. LeBron James moved from Cleveland to L.A., Paul George was traded from Indiana to Oklahoma City, and this past summer Kawhi Leonard departed Toronto to join forces with Paul George, forming a power duo that makes the L.A. Clippers a legitimate championship contender for the first time in franchise history. Leonard is the first reigning Finals MVP to change teams the year after winning the award.

There is a lot of hype about the Philadelphia 76ers, but the Milwaukee Bucks should be the class of the East now that the Toronto Raptors will be taking a step backwards. Although the 76ers look good on paper and arguably have the best staring lineup in the Eastern Conference, I question the long term chances of a team that relies on the injury-prone Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons, who has skill set limitations and seems to lack a consistently aggressive mentality.

The Boston Celtics should still be a strong team after essentially swapping Kyrie Irving for Kemba Walker, but losing Al Horford to Philadelphia hurts them at both ends of the court while also strengthening a key rival.

The East is wide open from the standpoint that there is not one dominant team, but the reality is that--barring injuries or unforeseen developments--the three above teams will most likely emerge as a cut above the other teams in the conference.

Listed below are the eight teams that I expect to qualify for the Eastern Conference playoffs, ranked based on their likelihood of advancing to the NBA Finals:

1) Milwaukee Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo has emerged as the heir apparent to LeBron James as the league's best all-around player. Like the young James, however, Antetokounmpo will have to refine and complete his skill set in order to have the same impact in the playoffs that he has in the regular season. Antetokounmpo won the 2019 regular season MVP and earned his first selections to both the All-NBA First Team and the All-Defensive First Team after posting career-highs in scoring (27.7 ppg, third in the league), rebounding (12.5 rpg, sixth in the league), assists (5.9 apg) and field goal percentage (.578). His averages for blocked shots (1.5 bpg) and steals (1.3 spg) both slightly exceeded his career averages (1.3 and 1.2 respectively).

However, his production and efficiency dropped a bit during the playoffs, as Antetokounmpo proved unable to consistently make jump shots, which affected his ability to attack defenses that sat in the paint and waited to thwart his drives. He averaged 25.5 ppg, 12.3 rpg and 4.9 apg in the playoffs, but his field goal percentage slumped to .492. Antetokounmpo led the Bucks to the best record in the NBA (60-22) and the team's first Eastern Conference Finals appearance since 2001, yet his game still has room for growth. The good news for Bucks fans is that Antetokounmpo has displayed a relentless work ethic, and thus there is every reason to believe that he will continue to develop as a player.

The Bucks declined to overpay Malcolm Brogdon and instead traded him to the Indiana Pacers. Other than losing Brogdon, the Bucks return intact the key rotation players from a squad that ranked third in field goal percentage, first in points scored, first in defensive field goal percentage and first in rebounds. The Bucks are elite both offensively and defensively, and they have the sport's best individual player. They are clearly the best team in the East; that is not the same as saying that they are the best team by a wide margin, but they are a step above every other team in the East.

2) Philadelphia 76ers: The 76ers tanked for four seasons to produce a squad that has lost in the second round of the playoffs each of the past two years. This summer, they lost two starters--Jimmy Butler and J.J. Redick--plus rotation player T.J. McConnell, but they acquired Al Horford, Josh Richardson and Trey Burke. The projected starting lineup of Joel Embiid, Al Horford, Tobias Harris, Ben Simmons and Josh Richardson is arguably the most talented in the East, but does not include any players with NBA Finals experience, let alone championship experience.

Embiid has playing time restrictions and often misses games due to injury and/or "load management." He is very talented but it is far from certain that he can lead a team to a title. Simmons has seemed to lack a high rev motor dating back to college; the comparison with Magic Johnson is ludicrous, and does Simmons no favors. If he can evolve into an All-NBA player that would be a step up, and still leave him a few steps short of reaching Johnson's level.

Horford will improve the 76ers at both ends of the court, but late game half court execution will likely remain a problem for this team. At least Butler could take--and make--key shots down the stretch. It is not clear who is willing and/or able to do that for the 76ers now.

The ongoing devolution of the East may result in the 76ers reaching the Eastern Conference Finals but this is a flawed team that could be headed toward its third straight second round elimination.

3) Boston Celtics: Last season was disappointing for the Celtics: Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward returned from injury to join a young nucleus that had advanced to the 2018 Eastern Conference Finals, but in 2019 the chemistry was never right and Boston bowed out 4-1 to Milwaukee in the second round.

Irving left Boston to join forces with Kevin Durant in Brooklyn, and then the Celtics largely replaced Irving's scoring--but not his playmaking and his playoff experience--by signing Kemba Walker. Enes Kanter is a nice addition as well, though obviously he cannot replace Horford.

This season will tell us a lot about Boston's young nucleus: are the young guys truly stars in the making who just needed for Irving to give them a chance to shine, or were Irving's not so thinly veiled complaints correct? As for Walker, he has played in 11 playoff games during his eight season career and he has not advanced past the first round. Can he be the best player on a contending team, or is he one of Kenny Smith's proverbial "looters in a riot" (players who put up gaudy regular season statistics for mediocre or bad teams but who are not able to carry a good team very far)?

Boston will be in the mix at the top of the conference, and could win the East if things break right--i.e., the Bucks suffer injuries--but most likely the Celtics will lose in the second round of the playoffs.

4) Indiana Pacers: In the past four years, the Pacers have won between 42 and 48 regular season games and lost in the first round of the playoffs four straight times. Victor Oladipo has made the All-Star team in both of his seasons with the Pacers, but he missed the 2019 midseason classic after suffering a season-ending right quad tendon rupture. Oladipo is not expected to be able to play until December or January, and it is uncertain what level his game will be at when he returns. He made the All-NBA Third Team and All-Defensive First Team in 2017-18 but he was not playing at quite that level even prior to the injury; his scoring dropped from 23.1 ppg to 18.8 ppg, his field goal percentage slumped from .477 to .423, his free throw percentage declined from .799 to a career-low .730 and his spg average fell from a league-best/career high 2.4 to 1.7. It is not clear that he ever was good enough to be the best player on a championship team, and it is even less clear that he will ever again be as good as he was two seasons ago.

The Pacers lost their second leading scorer (18.0 ppg), Bogdan Bogdanovic, to the Utah Jazz. Wesley Matthews signed with the Bucks and Tyreke Evans was suspended by the NBA. Brogdan and T.J. McConnell will fill the void in the backcourt, while T.J. Warren (acquired from the Phoenix Suns) will bolster the frontcourt.

The net result of all of those moves will probably not be much different from what we have seen the past several years: the Pacers will be a solid team that could possibly advance to the second round, but they will not go any further than that.

5) Brooklyn Nets: Last season, the Nets returned to the playoffs for the first time since 2015. First-time All-Star D'Angelo Russell led the team in scoring (21.0 ppg) and assists (7.0 apg) but he is with Golden State now in exchange for two-time Finals MVP Kevin Durant, who will miss the entire season after rupturing his Achilles. The Nets also signed Kyrie Irving, who will be the focal point of the offense this season. This is at least the fourth distinct stage of Irving's career. He was a "looter in a riot" in Cleveland prior to LeBron James rejoining the team, he was an Andrew Toney-like clutch assassin during Cleveland's four straight Finals trips (including the 2016 title), he was a lightning rod for criticism in Boston last season as the Celtics failed to live up to expectations and now--at least until Durant makes a healthy return--he is the face of a young Brooklyn team. We will learn a lot about Irving this year. Can he parlay his playoff experience from the Cleveland years to lead Brooklyn to the playoffs sans Durant, or is he destined to be remembered as a very good second option who cannot carry a team? My hypothesis is that Irving is better than his worst critics suggest and that the Nets will have a solid season without Durant.

The Nets have a very good coaching staff and a strong organizational culture. The Nets do things the right way and that is why I expect them to be even a little better than last season despite a lot of roster turnover and despite Durant not being available. The Nets will fight for homecourt advantage in the first round, and could advance to the second round, depending on matchups and health.

6) Toronto Raptors: Congratulations, Toronto! You are the first non-American based team to win an NBA title and the first team to watch the reigning Finals MVP leave to play for another squad. Kawhi Leonard came, he "load managed," he saw, he conquered and he moved on to what he expects to be greener, sunnier pastures.

What Leonard left behind is a well-coached team that has a solid nucleus including a five time All-Star guard (Kyle Lowry) and a rising young talent (Pascal Siakam). The Raptors have zero chance of contending for a title as currently constructed without Leonard, but they will play hard and smart and they will be a tough out for someone in the first round of the playoffs. Observers who believe that Toronto's 17-5 regular season record without Leonard foreshadows Toronto being among the top three teams in the East will learn that just because something is true does not mean that it matters; it is true that the Raptors were very good without Leonard last season during a small and skewed sample of games, but that does not tell us much about how the team would fare over 82 games without Leonard.

7) Miami Heat: Pat Riley's teams do not tank and they do not make excuses. The 30-11 run during the second half of the 2016-17 season was a mirage, and it turns out that the Heat were who we thought they were: a team that can win 40-48 games while annually contending for a playoff spot.

Miami has the second highest payroll in the league, and they have not yet received much bang for those considerable bucks. Even in view of the Monopoly money being thrown around to anyone who has a pulse, Goran Dragic's contract has not turned out to be a good value: he has been with the Heat for four and a half seasons, during which time he has made the All-Star team once and the team has advanced past the first round once. Dragic is not the only, or even biggest, mistake that the Heat made but when a one-time All-Star is making over $19 million as the team's second-highest paid player your roster is not constructed to go very far.

The Heat acquired a true All-Star by signing Jimmy Butler. The four-time All-Star, four-time All-Defensive Team member and two-time All-NBA player is by far the best player the Heat have had since the ending of the "Big Three" era. Unfortunately, the Heat lost their leading scorer (Josh Richardson) and their best rebounder/shot blocker (Hassan Whiteside), so the 10-15 wins that Butler is probably worth will just offset the 10-15 wins that those players are worth.

The net result will likely be that the Heat narrowly make the playoffs after missing the cut last season.

8) Detroit Pistons: Under Dwane Casey's leadership, the Pistons made the playoffs last year for the first time since 2016. That was just their second postseason appearance in the past 10 seasons.

Detroit added some interesting pieces--including Derrick Rose and Markieff Morris--to a roster that already included Blake Griffin, Andre Drummond and Reggie Jackson. This is not a great team by any stretch of the imagination but it is a well-coached team with a pretty solid starting lineup. If injury-prone players like Griffin, Jackson (who played all 82 games last season for the first time in his career) and Rose stay healthy then the Pistons could finish as high as fourth or fifth, but another eighth seed seems more likely.

As for the rest of the East, the Orlando Magic made no substantive roster changes while several other Eastern Conference teams improved. The Magic will still fight for a playoff berth, and could obtain one if things break just right, but I expect them to fall just short. Atlanta should improve by a few wins, but not enough to make the playoffs. The Charlotte Hornets are in trouble after essentially losing All-NBA guard Kemba Walker for nothing. The Cleveland Cavaliers will improve but not be close to playoff contention.The New York Knicks will again be terrible, but RJ Barrett is a rookie who could make some noise. The Chicago Bulls will remain awful. The Wizards need to reboot.

**********
Note:

I correctly picked six of the eight 2018-19 Eastern Conference playoff teams. Here are my statistics for previous seasons:

2018: 6/8
2017: 5/8
2016: 5/8
2015: 5/8
2014: 6/8
2013: 7/8
2012: 8/8
2011: 5/8
2010: 6/8
2009: 6/8
2008: 5/8
2007: 7/8
2006: 6/8

2006-2019 Total: 83/112 (.741)

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posted by David Friedman @ 12:46 AM

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Monday, April 15, 2019

All Four Favorites Win in Day Two of the NBA Playoffs

The first day of the 2019 NBA playoffs featured three upsets but day two went strictly according to form. Here are brief recaps of the NBA's second quadrupleheader this weekend:

Boston 84, Indiana 74

Neither team shot well during a game that was either a throwback or--from the NBA's perspective of featuring offense at all costs--a setback. Kyrie Irving posted game-highs in points (20, tied with his teammate Marcus Morris) and assists (seven). As expected, the Pacers play hard and they play tough defense; as also expected, without the injured Victor Oladipo they struggle to score at times and they just do not have enough offensive firepower to take out the Celtics.

Portland 104, Oklahoma City 99

Portland looked injured and vulnerable coming into this series but after the opening tip the Trail Blazers quickly shot down those notions. Damian Lillard dominated with a game-high 30 points--including several three pointers from well behind the arc--and he added four assists and four rebounds. Former Thunder center Enes Kanter more than filled in for the injured Jusuf Nurkic, scoring 20 points and grabbing a game-high 18 rebounds. Critics are too quick to focus on Kanter's defense and they do not give him enough credit for the dual impact he has as a scorer and as a rebounder. He posted a game-high +15 plus/minus number and he was the difference in the game; Lillard's performance was expected, and was balanced out by Russell Westbrook's triple double (24 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists while shooting 8-17 from the field and 8-8 from the free throw line), but Kanter's paint presence tilted the outcome in Portland's favor. C.J. McCollum also played well, finishing with 24 points.

This was Westbrook's ninth career playoff triple double, tying him for sixth place on the all-time list with Wilt Chamberlain. The Thunder dropped to 5-4 in Westbrook's triple double playoff games but during the telecast Mike Breen noted that the Thunder have a 110-28 record during Westbrook's regular season triple doubles. That is equivalent to a 65-17 record during an 82 game season and this highlights that Westbrook is most assuredly not chasing or putting up empty numbers but he is asserting statistical dominance in a way that directly causes, and correlates with, team success.

Paul George, who is laboring with injuries to both of his shoulders, shot like he had the weight of the world on those fragile joints: 8-24 from the field, including 4-15 from three point range. George finished with 26 points and 10 rebounds but he must shoot more efficiently for the Thunder to have a chance.

The good news for the Thunder is that this game was there for the taking in the final moments despite some of the worst outside shooting ever seen in the NBA playoffs (5-33 from three point range, a .152 percentage). The bad news is that the Thunder are an erratic three point shooting team, so if they do not improve quickly in that area and/or find a way to win the possession battle (boxing out Kanter more effectively would be a good start) then they will lose this series.

Milwaukee 121, Detroit 86

This was a classic beatdown and, short of Blake Griffin returning to health (and dominance) very quickly, there is nothing that Detroit can do to narrow the huge talent gap between these squads. Giannis Antetokounmpo posted game-highs in points (24) and rebounds (17) while also dishing four assists. All five Milwaukee starters plus two Milwaukee reserves scored in double figures.

Houston 122, Utah 90

Utah either had one of the worst defensive game plans ever seen in the NBA playoffs, or their players executed very poorly and did not follow the game plan. Either way, the "strategy" (and I use that word very loosely here) of escorting James Harden to the right side of the lane to shoot layups or make lob passes for dunks/kick out passes for open three pointers is ridiculous. As Kenny Smith put it, this is a third grade game plan for facing a kid who cannot use his off hand, not a game plan to be used against the reigning MVP. Harden should probably be shaded to the right, but he still must be guarded and his shots must be contested. Although Harden did not post great numbers by his standard this season (29 points on 11-26 field goal shooting, 10 assists, eight rebounds), Houston matched Milwaukee as all five starters plus two reserves scored in double figures.

One should hesitate to use the "s" word to describe professional athletes but I will go there with this game: Utah looked soft. The Jazz were soft with the ball (fumbling away passes, letting the ball be stripped way too easily), they let the Rockets push them around physically and they did not look mentally focused or prepared.

The difference between Utah and Detroit is that the Jazz have the necessary components to compete with, and beat, Houston. Detroit may not get beat down quite so badly in game two, but the Pistons will almost certainly be swept. On the other hand, if the Jazz enter game two with the right frame of mind and a coherent, logical defensive game plan then they could very well beat the Rockets to seize homecourt advantage. It would not be the first time that a team lost game one badly on the road only to quickly bounce back.

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posted by David Friedman @ 4:51 AM

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Friday, October 05, 2018

2018-19 Eastern Conference Preview

The balance of power in the Eastern Conference shifted seismically when LeBron James left the Cleveland Cavaliers to join the L.A. Lakers. James' run of eight straight NBA Finals appearances (Miami 2011-2014; Cleveland 2015-18) will almost certainly end as a result of that move. Regardless of the relative weakness of the Eastern Conference during this era, James' accomplishment is still noteworthy. The only other player in NBA history to lead his team to at least eight straight NBA Finals is Bill Russell, whose Celtics reached the NBA Finals from 1957-66.

Michael Jordan is often depicted as the ultimate basketball champion but his six titles are barely half of the total that Russell accumulated: 11 championships (and 12 Finals appearances) in 13 seasons. The Celtics' roster completely changed around Russell during that era, with Tommy Heinsohn being the only other Celtic player who joined Russell on each of those 10 NBA Finalists from 1957-66.

As a winner/champion, James (whose teams have gone 3-5 in the NBA Finals) is not even in the same conversation with Jordan, let alone Russell. James was justly criticized for taking the easy way out in 2010 when he left a Cleveland team that had just won 61 regular season games (after winning 66 games the year before) to create a super-team in Miami. This time, James is leaving a perennial contender to seek his fortune with a traditional NBA power that has been awful since the decline and retirement of Kobe Bryant. James is not taking the easy way from a basketball standpoint but it also is not clear that winning a championship is his top priority; he may very well have gone Hollywood both literally and figuratively.

The Boston Celtics are well-positioned to be contenders for the next several years. They are essentially adding two All-Stars to a rotation that advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals last season; due to injuries, neither Kyrie Irving nor Gordon Hayward played a single minute in the 2018 postseason but both are expected to be fully healthy for the start of the 2018-19 campaign.

The Toronto Raptors added MVP-level player Kawhi Leonard to a roster that finished with the best regular season record in the Eastern Conference last season but they gave up perennial All-Star DeMar Derozan to get Leonard. The Raptors also fired 2018 NBA Coach of the Year Dwane Casey. The potential upside for the Raptors is very high but those big moves could also backfire.

Listed below are the eight teams that I expect to qualify for the Eastern Conference playoffs, ranked based on their likelihood of advancing to the NBA Finals:

1) Boston Celtics: Prior to last season, I wrote, "I think that the Celtics are a year away from winning the East. Their nucleus needs some time to grow together and, of course, if James departs Cleveland next summer then the conference will almost certainly be there for Boston to take starting in 2018-19." James left, Boston's young nucleus blended nicely last season and this season the team is hoping/expecting to see the fully healthy return to action of All-Stars Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward, so there is every reason to consider the Celtics the favorite to represent the Eastern Conference in the 2019 NBA Finals. The two main potential obstacles for Boston are (1) injuries to key players (always a concern regarding Irving) and (2) Kawhi Leonard's reemergence as an MVP-caliber two-way player. If Leonard regains his old form, then the Toronto Raptors will have a great opportunity to challenge the Celtics. The rest of the Eastern teams lack the talent, depth and/or coaching to beat the Celtics in a seven game series.

2) Toronto Raptors: Other than James going to Los Angeles, the biggest offseason story in the NBA was the complete breakdown of the relationship between Kawhi Leonard and the San Antonio Spurs, a team that has been considered the model franchise in the league--if not all of professional sports--for the better part of the past 20 years. We may never find out what happened behind the scenes but we know the end result: Leonard is now a Raptor and DeMar DeRozan is now a Spur. How healthy and motivated is Leonard? How committed is Leonard to staying in Toronto as opposed to angling to land somewhere that he may consider to be more desirable? No one knows the answers to those questions except for Leonard, and he may not even know until he plays out this season.

The Raptors finished with the best record in the Eastern Conference last season but suffered a humiliating 4-0 sweep at the hands of Cleveland in the second round. That loss looks even worse when considered in the context of Cleveland sleepwalking through the regular season and then needing seven games to put away the Indiana Pacers in the first round. Dwane Casey won the Coach of the Year award and still got fired. The Raptors promoted assistant Nick Nurse--who has no NBA head coaching experience--and that is an odd-looking move; if you are going to fire the Coach of the Year because of being swept in the playoffs, one might assume that you would go in a completely different direction as opposed to turning to a less-experienced person who presumably shares Casey's basic coaching philosophies. Leonard's physical health and state of mind, plus Nurse's inexperience, are the biggest questions about the Raptors. The ceiling for this team is to win the East and possibly even test the Golden State Warriors in the NBA Finals (the last time we saw a fully healthy Leonard, he was dominating the Warriors in game one of the 2017 Western Conference Finals); however, if Leonard struggles and Nurse is not who team President Masai Ujiri thinks he is, then the Raptors could fall from contender status to first round fodder.

3) Indiana Pacers: The Pacers were one of the most surprising stories of last season. The Pacers did not look like a playoff team on paper after dealing franchise player Paul George to Oklahoma City for Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis but Oladipo won the 2018 Most Improved Player Award while averaging a career-high 23.1 ppg and leading the Pacers to a 48-34 record.

The Pacers pushed the eventual Eastern Conference Champion Cleveland Cavaliers to seven games in the first round of the playoffs and even though the Pacers' rise was unexpected it does not appear to be a fluke. I expect the Pacers to crack the 50 win barrier this season.

4) Philadelphia 76ers: The 76ers finished third in the Eastern Conference with a 52-30 record and then beat Miami 4-1 in the first round of the playoffs before losing 4-1 to Boston in the second round. The 76ers started the season 36-30 before finishing with a 16 game winning streak--but that streak was deceptive because at least six of those victories came against teams that were actively tanking. In the playoffs, Boston exposed Philadelphia's weaknesses and I expect the 76ers to regress to the mean, finishing with between 48-50 wins to place them just behind the Pacers. The injury-prone Joel Embiid operated under playing time restrictions last season, limiting him to 30.3 mpg in 63 games. I am skeptical that he will ever be able to handle the workload that is customary for an All-Star caliber player and those limitations are part of the reason that I do not believe that the 76ers will do any better this season than they did last season.

5) Milwaukee Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo made the All-NBA Second Team for the second year in a row after setting career-highs in scoring (26.9 ppg), rebounding (10.0 rpg) and field goal percentage (.529) while also averaging 4.8 apg. He was exceptional in the playoffs (25.7 ppg, 9.6 rpg, 6.3 apg, .570 FG%) as the Bucks extended the Celtics to seven games before falling 112-96 in the clinching contest. The organization has experienced a lot of instability and has made some puzzling personnel decisions but Antetokounmpo's all-around greatness masks many of the team's flaws and issues. In order to become a top four team in the Eastern Conference, the Bucks must improve their rebounding (they ranked 30th out of 30 teams in the league in that department) and their defense (the Bucks ranked 20th in defensive field goal percentage). Defense and rebounding are like tackling and blocking in football: they may not seem glamorous or grab headlines but it is very difficult to be a great team without at least being competent in those areas.

6) Washington Wizards: In the past five seasons, the Wizards have won between 41 and 49 games, advancing to the second round three times and missing the playoffs only once. All-Stars John Wall and Bradley Beal form one of the league's best backcourts and the rest of the rotation is solid but for whatever reason this team has not been able to take the next step in terms of winning 50-plus games and contending for conference supremacy.

The Wizards acquired Dwight Howard to anchor the frontcourt. Howard's game and reputation have declined in recent years but he is still a productive player (16.6 ppg, 12.5 rpg, 1.6 bpg, .555 FG% in 81 games for Charlotte last season).

The upside for this team is very high: if Wall stays healthy, if Howard remains productive and if the overall chemistry works then the Wizards could be a 55 win team and a serious postseason threat. On the other hand, it seems more likely that injuries and/or chemistry issues will relegate this team to roughly 45 wins and a first round exit.

7) Detroit Pistons: The Pistons have made the playoffs just once in the past nine seasons but that should change with the hiring of 2018 Coach of the Year Dwane Casey plus a full season of Blake Griffin in the fold. The Pistons won four in a row after Griffin first appeared in the lineup but then reverted to their losing ways down the stretch. Supposedly the pairing of Griffin with Andre Drummond cannot work in the "modern," analytics-driven "pace and space" NBA. No one is suggesting that this team is a serious contender but Griffin and DeAndre Jordan coexisted well with the L.A. Clippers and Coach Casey will find a way for his two big men to be effective. Drummond averaged 15.0 ppg and captured his second rebounding title in three years; his 16.0 rpg mark is the NBA's best rebounding average since Dennis Rodman's 16.1 rpg in 1996-97.

The health of point guard Reggie Jackson is critical; the Pistons looked like a playoff team early in the season when Jackson was rolling and posted a 27-18 record with him in the lineup but Detroit limped to a 12-25 record in the games that Jackson missed.

8) Miami Heat: The Heat went 11-30 in the first half of the 2016-17 season before going 30-11 in the second half. Last season, the Heat followed a less volatile path to a 44-38 record, going 24-17 in the first half of the season and then 20-21 down the stretch. It is becoming evident that both 41 game snapshots of the Heat from two years ago were aberrations. This is not an awful team, nor is it a contending team--but the Heat do have the highest payroll in the NBA in 2018-19, so it does not seem that Pat Riley has spent wisely. Goran Dragic is a solid player but he is not elite and he does not figure to improve as he moves deeper into his 30s. Hassan Whiteside is the team's most talented and physically gifted player but he took a step back last season, partially due to injuries and partially due to mindset. If Whiteside can head back in the direction of becoming an elite big man then maybe the Heat can move past the eighth seed but whether or not that happens this team looks like first round fodder for one of the conference's top dogs.

As for the rest of the East, the Cleveland Cavaliers will likely be better than many people expect; unlike the last time that LeBron James left, it does not appear that the Cavaliers are going into tank mode, and a team that has Kevin Love as its centerpiece surrounded by a decent supporting cast should be able to muster up 35-40 wins. I even give Cleveland an outside chance to grab the eighth seed if everything breaks right and if one of the teams listed above suffers chemistry issues and/or injuries.

The Brooklyn Nets showed signs of improvement but not enough signs to jump to playoff contention.

The Charlotte Hornets seem to have peaked after making the playoffs in two of the first three years that Steve Clifford coached the team. After missing the playoffs two seasons in a row the franchise hired James Borrego to replace Clifford. The much-maligned Dwight Howard played well for the Hornets last season and they will miss his presence in the paint.

The Chicago Bulls hope that the addition of Jabari Parker will be enough to lift the team into playoff contention but that is asking a lot of an injury prone player who is allergic to defense and is not as great of an offensive player as he seems to think that he is.

Kristaps Porzingis is still recovering from his ACL tear and the New York Knicks did not add any talent to the roster that went 29-53 last season, so the team will probably finish with a similar record this season.

The Atlanta Hawks and Orlando Magic both figure to be terrible again.

**********
Note:

I correctly picked six of the eight 2017-18 Eastern Conference playoff teams. Here are my statistics for previous seasons:

2017: 5/8
2016: 5/8
2015: 5/8
2014: 6/8
2013: 7/8
2012: 8/8
2011: 5/8
2010: 6/8
2009: 6/8
2008: 5/8
2007: 7/8
2006: 6/8

2006-2018 Total: 77/104 (.740)

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posted by David Friedman @ 1:03 AM

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Monday, December 25, 2017

Magic and Isiah Reminisce and Reconcile

NBA TV's recent Players Only Monthly "Isiah and Magic" episode featured a heartfelt conversation between two of the greatest point guards in NBA history. Unless you are at least 40 years old and/or a student of basketball history, you probably do not understand either the impact that both Magic Johnson and Isiah Thomas had as players or the full nature of their deep friendship that suffered a very public feud.

Johnson won five championships while capturing three Finals MVPs and three regular season MVPs before retiring as pro basketball's all-time assists leader (he now ranks fifth on that list); Thomas won two championships and one Finals MVP and he ranked third all-time in assists when he retired (he is now seventh on that list). Johnson mentored Thomas and Thomas' childhood friend Mark Aguirre. Thomas and Aguirre, as young NBA players, went to the NBA Finals and observed Johnson win titles and the three of them also worked basketball camps together.

Johnson may be better known to younger NBA fans than Thomas is but--as Johnson noted in his words and as highlight footage shown during the episode confirms--long before Stephen Curry, Kyrie Irving or even Tim Hardaway were breaking ankles Isiah Thomas was a magician who had the basketball on a string and who could finish in traffic during an era when driving to the basket inevitably meant encountering heavy physical contact.

The Johnson-Thomas friendship initially became a bit strained during the 1988 NBA Finals, the first time that the two players faced each other with a championship directly on the line. Johnson's L.A. Lakers won that title--Johnson's last championship--and then Thomas' Detroit Pistons won the next two titles, beating Johnson's Lakers in the 1989 Finals and then defeating a strong Portland team in the 1990 Finals. Aguirre played a key role for both Detroit championship teams.

The rift widened in the early 1990s, after Johnson announced that he had contracted HIV. Johnson later publicly stated that he believed that Thomas had spread rumors that Johnson is homosexual or bisexual. Thomas has always denied that assertion and Johnson never offered any proof that Thomas had done this. The final blow came when Thomas was left off of the 1992 Dream Team and Johnson later rubbed salt in that wound by stating that Thomas had alienated so many people that no one wanted him on the squad. Thomas' on-court accomplishments should have made him a lock for the team and Thomas was hurt by his omission and further wounded by Johnson's harsh words.

Johnson and Thomas never publicly talked about these matters with each other until the filming of the NBA TV show, during which Thomas (an NBA TV commentator) ostensibly interviewed Johnson but--as the two joked--they in fact interviewed each other. The show charted the arc of their friendship and their Hall of Fame careers, focusing on how Johnson mentored Thomas (and Aguirre) and on how battling for championships forced Johnson to choose between the Lakers and that friendship. Johnson now freely admits that he chose the Lakers, something that Thomas says that he understands but that he found very hurtful at the time.

Johnson and Thomas studied winning--both as basketball players and as businessmen--in a way that should be a model for the NBA stars who came after them. Johnson recalled that the 1984 Finals--when he made several key mistakes as the Lakers lost to their hated rivals the Boston Celtics--was the first time that he failed as an athlete in the sense that he was a major reason that his team lost. "Self evaluation is the hardest thing," Johnson told Thomas.

Johnson realized he was not as good as he had thought he was and thus during the 1984 offseason he devoted himself to improving his game. Thomas and Aguirre were right alongside Johnson both as consoling friends and as sparring partners. Johnson and Thomas recalled a time that Johnson and Aguirre almost came to blows during a pickup game, with Thomas noting that Johnson acted like that was game seven in the Boston Garden.

Johnson's Lakers won the 1985 championship and thus exorcised not only the demons from the 1984 Finals but also decades of frustration that the Lakers had faced versus the Boston Celtics.

By 1987, Thomas' Pistons had emerged as legitimate championship contenders and they likely would have faced Johnson's Lakers in the Finals if not for Thomas' costly turnover versus Boston in game five of the Eastern Conference Finals. Just as Thomas had been there for Johnson after Johnson's 1984 miscues, Johnson was there for Thomas three years later.

In 1988, the Pistons toppled the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals and Boston's Hall of Fame power forward Kevin McHale--as he left the court near the end of the last game of the series--exhorted Thomas to not be happy just reaching the Finals but to do everything necessary to win the title.

Thomas admitted to Johnson during the NBA TV show that he heard McHale's message but in the moment he did not really understand it. Johnson certainly understood; he told Thomas that at the time he realized that the Pistons posed a different challenge to the Lakers than the Celtics because of the Pistons' youth/athleticism, their deep bench and their physicality. It became apparent to Johnson that he had to choose between his friendship with Thomas and his loyalty to the Lakers. Thomas noted that he was still learning "the formula" to win a championship while Johnson already knew that formula. The 1988 Finals started with a pre-game kiss between Johnson and Thomas but in game three Johnson delivered a forearm shiver to a driving Thomas, who came up swinging. The Pistons built a 3-2 series lead and looked poised to win the championship as Thomas scored a Finals record 25 points in the third quarter of game six--despite playing on a badly sprained ankle--but the Lakers won 103-102 and then won game seven 108-105.

Much like the 1984 failure fueled Johnson, Thomas was motivated by the painful losses to Boston in 1987 and L.A. in 1988. He led the Pistons to the league's best record in 1989 (63-19) and Detroit won the championship by sweeping the Lakers. Johnson went to the winners' locker room to congratulate Thomas. During the NBA TV show, Johnson stated that he was happy that Thomas had won a title because Thomas and the Pistons had earned it.

No NBA team had won three championships in a row since Bill Russell's Boston Celtics won eight straight (1959-66). Johnson's Lakers were the first NBA team to win back to back titles since Russell's Celtics, so in 1990-91 Thomas and the Pistons were on a mission to distinguish themselves from Johnson's Lakers and from Larry Bird's Celtics, who had won three championships in the 1980s but had never won two in a row, let alone three.

Thomas told Johnson that he became "possessed" with the goal of winning "three-peat" titles and, consequently, practiced so hard during the 1990 offseason that he suffered a wrist injury that required surgery. Thomas missed 34 games during the 1990-91 regular season and he was not the same player when he returned for the postseason, scoring just 13.5 ppg on .403 field goal shooting (both playoff career-lows at that time). Thomas' Pistons were swept in the Eastern Conference Finals by the Chicago Bulls, who went on to win three straight titles with Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen leading the way.

Johnson said to Thomas, "You learn from other teams to win," meaning that the Bulls learned from the Pistons much like the Pistons had learned from the Lakers and Celtics.

After reminiscing about the "joy and pain" of competing for championships while also making their marks individually as basketball players, businessmen and philanthropists, Johnson and Thomas focused on how their friendship had frayed and why this is important not just to them but also on a larger scale. As Thomas put it, "Our relationship is important to our community." Johnson added, "We helped change the All-Star Weekend. We helped change a lot of different things within the league." 

While All-Star Weekend is far from the most important subject touched upon during the show, I cannot let this moment pass without noting how different the NBA All-Star Game was in its golden years (the 1980s) compared to now, a subject that I spoke with Johnson about during the 2005 NBA All-Star Weekend. In 2005, when the All-Star Game had deteriorated but not yet become the farce that it is now, Johnson told me that the current players "have to understand that there is a fine line. We wanted to put on a show for the fans--let Dr. J be Dr. J, let Dominique be Dominique, Michael Jordan be Michael Jordan, so there were some pretty dunks and pretty moves that they created. But I'm going to tell you something: at the end of the day, both teams were serious about winning. That's what we're all about, especially when that second half started--we were at each other's throats. Shots were being blocked and both teams were trying to win the game."

Johnson reiterated that point to Thomas, recalling how as point guards they set the tone in the All-Star Game by bringing the fans out of their seats with great passes while also maintaining a standard for competing to win the game.

Other than the tensions that occurred on the court during the NBA Finals, Johnson and Thomas did not directly address the controversies from the past; not one word was said about Johnson's HIV status/rumors about his sexuality or about Johnson's comments regarding Thomas' omission from the 1992 Dream Team. Both men seem to understand that the importance and enduring nature of their friendship transcends an analysis of who said what and who was right/who was wrong.

The show concluded with some heartfelt words from Johnson to Thomas: "You are my brother. Let my apologize to you if I hurt you, that we haven't been together. And God is good to bring us back together." The two men then embraced and cried, their friendship publicly renewed.

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posted by David Friedman @ 7:37 AM

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