Gobert Dominates Paint as Timberwolves Eliminate Lakers
Facing elimination at home, the favored L.A. Lakers fell behind 6-0 to the more physical and more focused Minnesota Timberwolves, and the Timberwolves led most of the way en route to a 103-96 game five win in L.A. that left Lakers' fans with more questions than answers about their highly touted team. The Timberwolves built their biggest lead of the game, 29-15, late in the first quarter, but led by single digits for most of the game; in the fourth quarter, the Timberwolves never led by more than eight points or trailed by more than one point, but despite keeping the margin within a three possession band the Lakers could not save their season.
The Timberwolves outscored the Lakers 56-40 in the paint while outrebounding the Lakers 54-37. Rudy Gobert scored a team-high 27 points on 12-15 field goal shooting while grabbing a game-high 24 rebounds and blocking two shots. Former Laker Julius Randle contributed 23 points, five rebounds, and four assists. Anthony Edwards scored 15 points on 4-19 field goal shooting (including 0-10 from three point range), but he had 11 rebounds, a team-high eight assists, and a team-high three steals.
Luka Doncic scored a game-high 28 points and dished for a game-high nine assists, but he shot just 7-18 from the field, and with the game up for grabs he scored just three points in the fourth quarter. Rui Hachimura added 23 points on 9-16 field goal shooting. LeBron James finished with 22 points on 9-21 field goal shooting, seven rebounds, six assists, and a game-worst -14 plus/minus number. James scored five points on 2-7 field goal shooting in the fourth quarter.
During this series, the Timberwolves outscored the Lakers in the paint in four of the five games; not surprisingly, the Lakers' only win (in game two) was the only game when the Lakers held their own in the paint, tying the Timberwolves 46-46 in a 94-85 victory. Another key statistic for this series is fourth quarter scoring; although the Lakers outscored the Timberwolves by small margins in the first quarter and the third quarter, in the fourth quarter they averaged 17.0 ppg, shot just .293 from the field, and got outscored by 8.4 ppg.
I will say more about the the Timberwolves in my preview of their second round series, but this is a good time to take a closer look at the state of the Lakers.
The Lakers' late collapses versus the Timberwolves can be explained at least partially by coaching. It is important that a coach understand matchups, time and score, the rhythm of the game, and the fatigue level of his players. The Lakers had the two best individual players in this series--four-time NBA champion LeBron James, and Luka Doncic, who led the Dallas Mavericks to the NBA Finals last year--but the Timberwolves exploited their matchup advantages in the paint while keeping James and Doncic reasonably under control without creating openings for the Lakers' supporting cast to make an impact.
The Timberwolves enjoyed a significant coaching advantage: Chris Finch versus J.J. Redick may have been the biggest mismatch in this series. Redick established multiple records in his playoff coaching debut: no coach had ever played the same five players for every minute of the second half of a playoff game until Redick did that in the game four loss, and no Lakers team had ever lost in the first round of the playoffs while seeded at least third. Redick set an unofficial record for the fewest times that a coach ever took responsibility for his team's loss.
Finch led the Timberwolves to the Western Conference Finals last year, and he is now the first coach in franchise history to advance past the first round in back to back seasons. In contrast, Redick is a first year NBA coach with no prior coaching experience beyond the youth level, and his NBA playoff coaching resume now shows a 1-4 record while coaching the third seeded team versus the sixth seeded team. When a reporter asked Redick a reasonable question about his substitution patterns, Redick arrogantly scoffed, "Weird assumption" before storming out of the press conference. Redick's combination of arrogance with lack of knowledge is not likely to lead to sustained success.
After the Lakers made the stunning trade with Dallas to acquire Doncic in exchange for Anthony Davis, I wrote, "Even if Doncic and James both average 30 ppg the rest of the way, the Lakers may not be able to score enough points, get enough rebounds, and get enough stops to win consistently; they desperately need to add at least one competent defensive big man before the trade deadline to have any hope of getting past the first round of the playoffs." I should have heeded my own words when I made my 2025 Playoff Predictions, but I somehow convinced myself that the Lakers would squeak by the Timberwolves before losing in the second round. The overarching point of my initial analysis was correct: the Lakers will not be a legit championship contender until they beef up their frontcourt, much like the Mavericks did last season by adding Daniel Gafford. The Lakers have a multi-year timeframe to build around the 26 year old Doncic, who is already one of the NBA's five best players and should be just entering his prime years.
It is not clear how the Lakers can reconcile Luka Doncic's long term timeframe with the year to year timeframe of 40 year old LeBron James. In The Paradox of LeBron James, I wrote, "LeBron James baffles and mystifies me more than any other great player who I have observed and/or studied, so it is only fitting that as he enters the final stage of his career he continues to be baffling and mystifying." James is without question one of the greatest players of all-time; anyone who suggests otherwise is biased, foolish, or both. James is also without question the most productive 40 year old player in NBA history. This season, he averaged 24.4 ppg, 8.2 apg, and 7.8 rpg while shooting .513 from the field; those would be career-best numbers for many Hall of Famers, but overall this was a below average season for James. It is not reasonable to blame a 40 year old for not being able to lead a team on a deep playoff run when no other 40 year old has been able to do that--but James is not being paid like a 40 year old player who cannot carry a team: he is the 14th highest paid player in the NBA.
How can the Lakers methodically build around Doncic with the idea of having sustained long term success while at the same time dealing with James on a year to year basis as one of the league's highest paid players? This is not just about salary cap space, either. With the exception of his four years in Miami--the most successful four years of his career from the standpoint of team success--James runs the show when he joins a team, meaning that he picks the coach and he picks the roster; that is why his former podcast partner Redick is the coach, and that is why the Lakers drafted his son Bronny instead of filling that roster spot with a veteran player who could contribute now. One would expect that a team with a highly paid 40 year old would be in win now mode, hiring an experienced championship-level coach and stacking the roster with proven veterans, but this particular 40 year old has different ideas.
The reality is that even though James is more productive than any player his age has ever been and even though he is more productive right now than all but a handful of current players, the Lakers are not going to win another title as long as he is not only on the team but running the show. In James' seven years with the Lakers, they won one "bubble title" in 2020 (James' second year in L.A.), made one fluky run to the 2023 Western Conference Finals, lost in the first round three times, and twice did not even make the playoffs. The Lakers knew that their most recent trip to the Western Conference Finals was fluky, and that is why in short order they fired the coach and remade the roster, which are not steps that management takes if that team is built for sustained success. The Lakers won the "bubble title" with a 35 year old James and a huge frontcourt that dominated the paint; now, James is five years older, his team lacks size, and his one L.A. title looks more fluky each year that he keeps getting bounced in the first round despite playing alongside first Anthony Davis and now Luka Doncic.
It will be fascinating to see the moves that the Lakers make--and don't make--prior to next season. If they are truly thinking about how to build a perennial contender around Doncic then they will hire an experienced NBA coach, they will get rid of James, his son, and other players who are unlikely to be rotation players on a championship team for the next several years, and they will use the open salary cap space and roster spots to acquire players whose skills mesh with Doncic's. Mind you, it is almost inconceivable that the Lakers will do any of those things, which means that they have not yet shifted their thinking from "LeBron runs the show" to "This is Luka's team."
Labels: Anthony Edwards, Chris Finch, J.J. Redick, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Luka Doncic, Minnesota Timberwolves, Rudy Gobert
posted by David Friedman @ 1:31 PM
